STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 7/9/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 52,547 (+198), S&P 500 7,546 (+64), Russell 2000 2,996 (+39), NYSE FANG+ 17,426 (+102), ICE Brent Crude $75.64/barrel (-$2.38), Gold $4,143/oz (+$60), Bitcoin ~63.0k (+835)
- Back on board the AI spending train
- Equities broadly higher
- Oil, yields lower
- Precious metals climbing
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 544: New York Giants' Kayvon Thibodeaux on Money, Mentorship, and the 2026 Season
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% yesterday while the equal-weight (-1.2%), Russell 2000 (-0.9%) and Dow (-1.1%) saw larger declines. Oil jumped over 5% after the US resumed strikes against Iran and President Trump commenting the ceasefire was over as far as he was concerned. Those initial comments were followed up with ones a bit less bellicose during the NATO summit. Tech strength mitigated the losses for the S&P versus the other indexes.
The US conducted more airstrikes on Iran overnight and Iran hit sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Despite the return to hostilities, it looks to be another contained flare-up rather than complete collapse of the détente. The S&P opened slightly higher and rose throughout the morning, currently sitting around best levels, up just under 1%. The green is dispersed broadly as the equal weight S&P is about inline and small caps are outperforming. Data centers/neoclouds, quantum computing and genomics themes are trading well among thematic plays while the space group is mixed.
Software stocks were under pressure earlier following a Bloomberg report that Starbucks is using AI to develop internal tools to cut reliance on outside software, playing right into the AI disruption narrative. A CRM downgrade didn’t help either. However, dip buyers answered the call. The IGV software ETF, down over 2% at the lows, is currently up 1%.
Meta was down 4% after a report that it will begin production, with partners Broadcom and TSMC, of a new in-house AI chip (Iris) in September and double it’s AI compute capacity to 14GW in 2027, following yesterday’s news it will invest ~$10B to build its first data center in Canada. Like software, Meta has erased the early losses and is now up ~1%.
Meta’s spending news has helped pushed AI tools and chips stocks higher, along with Micron (+7%) announcing its raising planned US investment to over $250B through 2035, up from $200B. Semi manufacturing equipment names are seeing some of the best gains: LRCX, AMAT, KLA up around +7%.
In other AI news, The Information reported that startup PrismML has developed the largest model to run on an iPhone, which it produced by modifying Alibaba’s open-source Qwen 3.6 model. The company is expected to release the model on July 14 and Apple (flat) has had talks about using the technology.
6/11 sectors are higher. Besides Tech, Financials are also leading. Most groups are higher, though Insurance is mixed and services/data businesses are under pressure. The early software weakness is partially to blame, but it extended to exchanges on news that Kalshi is in talks with US regulators to expand perp futures into markets beyond crypto. The defensive Staples sector is the laggard today with Pepsi weaker after its earnings results (-3%). The company noted North America was softer than expected as consumer budgets tighten, and improvement will proceed at a more gradual pace than previously anticipated. LEVI shook off early weakness after its earnings report last night which included a beat and raise. AZN is down 6% following negative clinical trial results, and Healthcare as asector is modestly lower. Energy joined Staples on the downside as crude slid lower.
Treasury yields are at their lows today, down 3-7bp with the curve steepening as crude pulls back after 2 days of gains. The 30y auction stopped through- another solid result this week- adding another catalyst for the move lower. The US Dollar Index is following yields lower.
- US 2yr -7bps to 4.15%, 5yr -7bps to 4.26%, 10yr -5bps to 4.53%, 30yr -3bps to 5.05%
- USD index: -$0.10 to $100.66
The FOMC minutes yesterday weren’t exactly this summer's beach read. There was broad support to change the statement language, and while the most near-term outlook tilted hawkish, commentary took a more dovish angle for the medium to longer term horizons. Weekly jobless claims were basically in line and on trend. The US Dollar Index is unchanged. NY Fed President John Williams spoke at the Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning Workshop before the Open. Among the topics he hit upon:
- He agrees with market expectations that energy prices will come down over the next 12 months, and thinks tariff impact is close to its peak.
- On AI he thinks it’s currently driving inflation higher and policy may have to react if that impact is sustained, but longer run it should be a positive supply shock (lower inflation, higher growth/productivity).
- Inflation is still far too high, and risk is still tilted to that side of the mandate, but we will get it back to 2%.
- Upcoming technical changes could bring more harmonization between PCE and CPI readings
- Regarding the balance sheet, he thinks its unclear how small it could get.
Econ data is sparse today. Existing Home Sales of 4.09M fell versus last month and missed estimates, but remained around the level the data has been trending around.
Brent crude was modestly higher after strong gains the past two days but began to fade as we approached the Open and then turned negative. That coincided with aggressive comments in Iranian media but no further military actions by the country. US natural gas is down over 6%, crashing through the 50d ma. Gas started to weaken before the weekly inventory data showed stocks rose more than expected. Precious metals are seeing a bounce after weakness yesterday, moving to their highs of the day as yields/crude/Dollar fall. Ag is mixed with wheat trading higher. Bitcoin and Ether are modestly higher as well. Bitcoin is hovering around $63K while ETH is testing resistance at the 50d ma ~$1750. Fed President Williams delved into stablecoins in his comments today, saying he doesn’t see stablecoins as a threat to bank deposits, though questions remain around their impact on reserves demand, among many other areas.
The Nikkei was up over 1% overnight, led by the major tech names while the rest of the market was broadly lower. Kioxia jumped 8% after Bloomberg reported Bain sold its remaining position (14%) in the stock. The firm had been winding down its position from 44% since the end of last year. The stake was acquired when a Bain-led group bought the business from Toshiba in 2018. An SPV that Bain set up for SK Hynix still holds a 14% stake in the company. Speaking of, SK Hynix ADRs are expected to price and start trading tomorrow in the US. China’s markets were mostly higher though Hong Kong fell. Memory chip maker CXMT will IPO next week with plans to raise ~$4B on Shanghai’s STAR market. China’s CPI and PPI were largely in line. European markets ended mostly higher though the UK was down slightly. Industrial manufacturers (Siemens, ABB +3%), financials and tech (ASML, Infineon, Nokia +5 to 10%) were among the leaders. Energy (oil) lagged. German exports rose from the previous month and beat estimates.
Earnings:
- After-Market: WDFC
- Pre-Market (Fri): DAL
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 215K vs 218K cons, prior 217K
- Continuing claims: 1814K vs 1820K cons, prior 1814K
- Existing Home Sales: 4.09M vs 4.20M cons, prior 4.19M
- EIA Nat Gas Inventories: 61Bcf vs 49Bcf cons, prior 87Bcf
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
- China CPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 1.0% vs 1.1% / -0.2% / 1.1% cons, prior -0.1% / 1.2%
- China PPI y.y: 4.1% vs 4.1% cons, prior 3.9%
- Germany Exports m.m: 0.9% vs -0.3% cons, prior 0.9%
- Mexico CPI: m.m: -0.3% vs -0.1% cons, prior -0.2%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 7/9/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% yesterday while the equal-weight (-1.2%), Russell 2000 (-0.9%) and Dow (-1.1%) saw larger declines. Oil jumped over 5% after the US resumed strikes against Iran and President Trump commenting the ceasefire was over as far as he was concerned. Despite the turn of events, it so far looks to be another contained flare up rather than complete collapse of the détente. Tech strength mitigated the losses for the S&P versus the other indexes. The US conducted more airstrikes on Iran overnight and Iran hit sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, but it seems that may be the end of the flare-up that pushed equities lower yesterday, at least for now. S&P futures are near their best levels, up 0.3% as we approach the Open despite crude rising for the third straight day.
Software stocks are under pressure in the pre-market following a Bloomberg report that SBUX is using AI to develop internal tools to cut reliance on outside software, playing right into the AI disruption narrative. META is down 3% after a report it will begin production of a new AI chip in September and double it’s AI compute capacity to 14GW in 2027, following yesterday’s news it will invest ~$10B to build its first data center in Canada. That’s going against the concerns that were triggered last week on reports the company was looking into selling excess capacity. That’s also pushing AI tools and supply stocks (chips, etc) higher ahead of the Open. What’s also helping is Micron announcing its raising its planned US investment to over $250B through 2035, up from $200B. LEVI (-3%) reported a beat and raise last night but is trading lower. AZN is down 8% in the pre-market following negative clinical trial results.
Treasury yields are down 1-3bp despite modest strength in crude, pulling back after 2 days of gains. The FOMC minutes yesterday weren’t terribly interesting. There was broad support to change the statement language, and while the most near-term outlook tilted hawkish, commentary took a more dovish angle for the medium to longer term horizons. Weekly jobless claims were basically in line and on trend. The US Dollar Index is unchanged.
Brent crude is modestly higher as we noted, gaining just under 1%. Precious metals are seeing a modest bounce while ag slips a bit. Bitcoin and Ether are modestly higher.
The Nikkei was up over 1% overnight, led by the major tech names while the rest of the market was broadly lower. Kioxia jumped 8% after Bloomberg reported Bain sold its remaining position (14%) in the stock. The firm had been winding down its position from 44% since the end of last year. The stake was acquired when a Bain-led group bought the business from Toshiba in 2018. An SPV that Bain set up for SK Hynix still holds a 14% stake in the company. China’s markets were mostly higher though Hong Kong fell. Memory chip maker CXMT will IPO next week with plans to raise ~$4B on Shanghai’s STAR market. China’s CPI and PPI were largely in line. European markets are mostly higher though the UK is down. Manufacturers, financials and tech are among the leaders. German exports rose from the previous month and beat estimates.
Economic Data:
US:
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% yesterday while the equal-weight (-1.2%), Russell 2000 (-0.9%) and Dow (-1.1%) saw larger declines. Oil jumped over 5% after the US resumed strikes against Iran and President Trump commenting the ceasefire was over as far as he was concerned. Despite the turn of events, it so far looks to be another contained flare up rather than complete collapse of the détente. Tech strength mitigated the losses for the S&P versus the other indexes. The US conducted more airstrikes on Iran overnight and Iran hit sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, but it seems that may be the end of the flare-up that pushed equities lower yesterday, at least for now. S&P futures are near their best levels, up 0.3% as we approach the Open despite crude rising for the third straight day.
Software stocks are under pressure in the pre-market following a Bloomberg report that SBUX is using AI to develop internal tools to cut reliance on outside software, playing right into the AI disruption narrative. META is down 3% after a report it will begin production of a new AI chip in September and double it’s AI compute capacity to 14GW in 2027, following yesterday’s news it will invest ~$10B to build its first data center in Canada. That’s going against the concerns that were triggered last week on reports the company was looking into selling excess capacity. That’s also pushing AI tools and supply stocks (chips, etc) higher ahead of the Open. What’s also helping is Micron announcing its raising its planned US investment to over $250B through 2035, up from $200B. LEVI (-3%) reported a beat and raise last night but is trading lower. AZN is down 8% in the pre-market following negative clinical trial results.
Treasury yields are down 1-3bp despite modest strength in crude, pulling back after 2 days of gains. The FOMC minutes yesterday weren’t terribly interesting. There was broad support to change the statement language, and while the most near-term outlook tilted hawkish, commentary took a more dovish angle for the medium to longer term horizons. Weekly jobless claims were basically in line and on trend. The US Dollar Index is unchanged.
- US 2yr -3bps to 4.19%, 5yr -2bps to 4.30%, 10yr -1bps to 4.57%, 30yr +1bps to 5.08%
- USD index: +$0.01 to $100.77
Brent crude is modestly higher as we noted, gaining just under 1%. Precious metals are seeing a modest bounce while ag slips a bit. Bitcoin and Ether are modestly higher.
The Nikkei was up over 1% overnight, led by the major tech names while the rest of the market was broadly lower. Kioxia jumped 8% after Bloomberg reported Bain sold its remaining position (14%) in the stock. The firm had been winding down its position from 44% since the end of last year. The stake was acquired when a Bain-led group bought the business from Toshiba in 2018. An SPV that Bain set up for SK Hynix still holds a 14% stake in the company. China’s markets were mostly higher though Hong Kong fell. Memory chip maker CXMT will IPO next week with plans to raise ~$4B on Shanghai’s STAR market. China’s CPI and PPI were largely in line. European markets are mostly higher though the UK is down. Manufacturers, financials and tech are among the leaders. German exports rose from the previous month and beat estimates.
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 215K vs 218K cons, prior 217K
- Continuing claims: 1814K vs 1820K cons, prior 1814K
- 9:00am Fed Williams speech
- 10:00am Existing Home Sales
- 10:30am EIA Nat Gas Inventories
- 1:00pm 30y auction
- 1:30pm Fed Logan speech
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
- China CPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 1.0% vs 1.1% / -0.2% / 1.1% cons, prior -0.1% / 1.2%
- China PPI y.y: 4.1% vs 4.1% cons, prior 3.9%
- Germany Exports m.m: 0.9% vs -0.3% cons, prior 0.9%
- Mexico CPI: m.m: -0.3% vs -0.1% cons, prior -0.2%
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