STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/07/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 49,511 (-399), S&P 500 7,325 (-40), Russell 2000 2,841 (-45), NYSE FANG+ 8,642 (-88), ICE Brent Crude $100.13/barrel (-$1.14), Gold $4,725/oz (+$31), Bitcoin ~80.1k (-1450)
- Reversing yesterday's optimism, Project Freedom back on
- Equities weaken and at intraday lows
- Yields backing up after earlier Treasury strength
- Oil off its lows
- Payrolls tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- X Las Vegas: C-Suite Network Co-Founder & Chairman Jeffrey Hayzlett
- ETF Central: Red Panda Founder & CEO Ian Dunlap
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Equities were sharply higher yesterday on the back of optimistic signals that the Iran conflict was reaching an end. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rose 1.5%. Brent fell 8%, yields fell 5-8bp and gold rose. Reports that the US and Iran were edging towards an MOA catalyzed yesterday's strength. In addition President Trump announced a pause in Project Freedom, the operation to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, due to progress in negotiations. NBC later reported that the pause came after Saudi Arabia denied the US use of its bases and airspace for the operation. Earnings and AI news flow provided another tailwind. On the Iran optimism, we’ll note we’ve seen a few false dawns since hostilities broke out in February, and we may gotten another one, which we'll get to. Speaking of optimism, things look good for the Knicks following their Game 2 win last night, though the MAC Desk is well aware it's not over 'till someone wins 4 games.
The geopolitical news feed had been relatively quiet today, and the tape was following a similar pattern. Iran’s response to the US’ latest proposal was the primary anticipated event. On a related topic, Israel and Lebanon will conduct talk next Thursday and Friday in the US according to the State Dept. The S&P 500 opened slightly higher and was trading in a narrow 25 point range, with the equal-weight slightly lower and small caps lagging. The Russell 2000 opened 0.3% higher but immediately turned lower, falling as low as ~1% as Industrials, tech equipment and energy are under some pressure overall. The high-beta thematic groups- Quantum, Space, Data Centers, Optical groups all trading lower. The S&P began to fade following a CNN report that Iran was looking to impose new requirements on ships transiting the Strait, or risk attack, followed by comments that seemed to push against Trump's condition that Iran's uranium be sent to the US. Then the WSJ reported that the US was looking to restart Project Freedom after Saudi Arabia reversed their blocking of US access to bases. That sent equities to their lows as oil strengthened on the updates. The S&P is down 0.5% with the equal-weight closer to -1% and the Russell 2000 down 2%.
Tech is leading today but only because its flat while every other sector is lower. Fortinet's earnings are providing an uplift to the cyber names and combined with Datadog ripping higher, software overall is trading well. On the other hand the NYSE Semis index down 3% with the analog/power and memory names leading to the downside. DDOG, FTNT and APP are up sharply, SNAP is flat and FSLY is getting hit. On the tech equipment side of things, ARM and COHR are selling off.
Energy is the laggard today despite oil's reversal off its lows. The XLE ETF gapped down 2% at the open and fell further before turning back towards opening levels as oil moved up. Both Consumer Staples and Discretionary are slightly lower. There's a lot of large moves in both directions. TSLA is higher and countering AMZN while travel and leisure names are lower. WHR is getting hit following quarterly results though its well-above pre-market levels. Management said that the Iran war led to "recession-level" declines as consumer sentiment collapsed. Management also discussed their largest price increase in more than a decade to support margins. PLNT, SHAK, BROS and TPR are also under significant pressure. On the other hand, MCD is flat while FUN, BOBS, FLUT and WRBY are sharply higher.
Fertilizer producer CF posted solid consensus beats but is trading modestly lower. The company noted that 50-60% of ammonia and urea capacity in the Middle East was hampered in some way while Russia and China nitrogen/fertilizer exports are limited. Software is seeing some divergent earnings responses.
Jobless Claims this morning continued to remain at low levels and lead into tomorrow's non-farm payrolls. Productivity fell in Q1 and was below consensus, along with Unit Labor Costs. Treasury yields were lower earlier in the day (2y down 5bp) but have moved steadily higher and are now up 3-4bp across the curve.
- US 2yr +4bps to 2Y%, 5yr +4bps to 5Y%, 10yr +4bps to 10Y%, 30yr +3bps to 30Y%
- USD index: +$0.06 to $97.94
Oil was down around 5% before moving higher, currently down ~1% but off its highs of ~$102.50. Posts from Arabic news outlet Al Hadath about “intensive” talks to reopen Hormuz helped push prices down overnight but that move has been erased. Precious metals are higher but off their best levels as oil strengthened. Ag is mostly lower with wheat lagging following weekly export data. Crypto is down was well with Bitcoin just off its worst levels.
European indexes are slightly lower, with the UK lagging as local elections today will test the strength of the Labour/Starmer government. Germany factory orders were stronger than expected and European retail sales fell from last month but were slightly better than expected. Energy and Utilities are mostly lower in the region while miners are higher. Poland’s central bank kept rates unchanged as expected while Norway’s Norges Bank hiked in a surprise move. Japan played catchup after reopening following the Golden Week holiday, jumping over 5%. The yen was around unchanged, with no signs of another round of another intervention after several the past few days. Speakring of the yen, Secretary Bessent will visit Japan next week and meet with finance officials. Chinese markets were higher as attention drifts to the Trump-Xi meeting next week.
Earnings:
After-Market: ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, COIN, CRWV, DBX, DXC, DKNG, EXPE, FBIN, G, GILD, GMED, HUBS, MCHP, MCK, MP, MSI, NET, RGA, RKT, RMAX, RNG, RSG, STRZ, TOST, TTD, XYZ
Pre-Market (Fri): AMCX, AMR, ASIX, BAM, EMBJ, ESNT, FIS, FLR, OSK, PPL, STWD, WEN
Economic Data:
US:
- Challenger Job Cuts: 83.387k vs prior 60.26k
- Initial Jobless Claims: 200k vs 205k cons, prior 190k
- Continuing Claims: 1766k vs 1800k cons, prior 1776K
- Nonfarm Productivity (Q1) q.q: 0.8% vs 1.4% cons, prior 1.6%
- Unit Labor Costs: 2.3% vs 2.6% vs 4.6%
- Used Car Prices m.m: -1.6% vs prior 1.4%
- Construction Spending m.m: 0.6% vs 0.2% cons, prior -0.2%
- EIA Nat Gas Inventories: 63Bcf vs 74Bcf cons, prior 79Bcf
- Consumer Inflation Expectations: 3.6% vs prior 3.4%
- 2:05pm Fed Hammack, 3:30pm Williams
- 3:00pm Consumer Credit
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
- Australia Trade Balance: A$-1.841B vs A$4.25B cons, prior A$5.026B
- Germany Factory Orders m.m: 5.0% vs 1.0% cons, prior 1.4%
- Europe Retail Sales (March) m.m: -0.1% vs -0.3% cons, prior -0.3%
- Mexico Core CPI m.m: 0.31% vs 0.31% cons, prior 0.38%
- 3:00pm Mexico rate decision
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/07/26 (a/o 9:15 am)
Good morning,
Equities were sharply higher yesterday on the back of the latest optimistic signals that the Iran conflict is reaching an end. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rose 1.5%. Brent fell 8%, yields fell 5-8bp and gold rose. President Trump announced a pause in Project Freedom and reports of the two sides edging towards an MOA served as a primary catalyst for yesterday’s strength, with earnings and AI news flow providing another boost. On the Iran optimism, we’ll note we’ve already seen many false dawns.
Coming off of the Knicks Game 2 win last night, the geopolitical news feed today has been relatively quiet, with Iran’s response to the US’ latest proposal the primary anticipated event. Equity futures haven’t been doing much this morning, in line with the news flow. The S&P is around unchanged.
The latest round of earnings continued to come in strong overall though stock reactions are more nuanced. WHR is under pressure after missing estimates, slashing guidance, suspending the dividend and providing some rough commentary that the Iran war led to “recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March.” Management also discussed double-digit price increases to support margins. PLNT and SHAK are also under pressure, BROS is down too while MCD, FUN, BOBS and WRBY are higher. CF posted solid consensus beats but is trading lower. The company noted that 50-60% of ammonia and urea capacity in the Middle East was hampered in some way while Russia and China nitrogen/fertilizer exports are limited. Software is seeing some divergent earnings responses. DDOG and FTNT are up sharply in the software space while APP is down modestly, SNAP is under a bit of pressure and FSLY is down sharply. On the equipment side of things, ARM and COHR are trading lower.
Jobless Claims this morning continued to remain at low levels. Non-farm productivity fell in Q1 and was below consensus, along with Unit Labor Costs. Treasury yields are continuing to move lower this morning down 5bp at the short end, with the Dollar following lower.
European indexes are slightly lower, with the UK lagging as local elections today will test the strength of the Labour/Starmer government. Germany factory orders were stronger than expected and European retail sales fell from last month but were slightly better than expected. Energy and Utilities are mostly lower in the region while miners are higher. Poland’s central bank kept rates unchanged as expected while Norway’s Norges Bank hiked in a surprise move. Japan played catchup after reopening following the Golden Week holiday, jumping over 5%. The yen was around unchanged, with no signs of another round of another intervention after several the past few days. Speakcring of the yen, Secretary Bessent will visit Japan next week and meet with finance officials. Chinese markets were higher as attention drifts to the Trump-Xi meeting next week.
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): ALB, APA, APP, ARM, ATO, AXON, BKD, BROS, CAPL, CF, CMP, CW, CXT, CODI, COHR, CPK, DASH, ES, FTNT, GNK, GT, HCI, HLI, HRB, HST, KTOS, MET, MUR, NVST, OBDC, PAYC, PRI, PTC. QGEN, RYN, O, TKO, TPL, WBD, WES, WHR, WTS, ZG
Pre-Market: ARW, BDX, CG, CRL, LNG, DDOG, EPAM, EVRG, FOUR, FUN, GWW, HAE, HTZ, HWM, KVUE, LEG, LNC, LOAR, MCD, MTD, PLNT, RXO, SHAK, SPB, SPH, SRE, TFX, TPR, TRGP, U, VST, WBD, ZTS
After-Market: ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, COIN, CRWV, DBX, DXC, DKNG, EXPE, FBIN, G, GILD, GMED, HUBS, MCHP, MCK, MP, MSI, NET, RGA, RKT, RMAX, RNG, RSG, STRZ, TOST, TTD, XYZ
Economic Data:
US:
Global:
Equities were sharply higher yesterday on the back of the latest optimistic signals that the Iran conflict is reaching an end. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rose 1.5%. Brent fell 8%, yields fell 5-8bp and gold rose. President Trump announced a pause in Project Freedom and reports of the two sides edging towards an MOA served as a primary catalyst for yesterday’s strength, with earnings and AI news flow providing another boost. On the Iran optimism, we’ll note we’ve already seen many false dawns.
Coming off of the Knicks Game 2 win last night, the geopolitical news feed today has been relatively quiet, with Iran’s response to the US’ latest proposal the primary anticipated event. Equity futures haven’t been doing much this morning, in line with the news flow. The S&P is around unchanged.
The latest round of earnings continued to come in strong overall though stock reactions are more nuanced. WHR is under pressure after missing estimates, slashing guidance, suspending the dividend and providing some rough commentary that the Iran war led to “recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March.” Management also discussed double-digit price increases to support margins. PLNT and SHAK are also under pressure, BROS is down too while MCD, FUN, BOBS and WRBY are higher. CF posted solid consensus beats but is trading lower. The company noted that 50-60% of ammonia and urea capacity in the Middle East was hampered in some way while Russia and China nitrogen/fertilizer exports are limited. Software is seeing some divergent earnings responses. DDOG and FTNT are up sharply in the software space while APP is down modestly, SNAP is under a bit of pressure and FSLY is down sharply. On the equipment side of things, ARM and COHR are trading lower.
Jobless Claims this morning continued to remain at low levels. Non-farm productivity fell in Q1 and was below consensus, along with Unit Labor Costs. Treasury yields are continuing to move lower this morning down 5bp at the short end, with the Dollar following lower.
- US 2yr -5bps to 2Y%, 5yr -4bps to 5Y%, 10yr -3bps to 10Y%, 30yr -2bps to 30Y%
- USD index: -$0.17 to $97.71
European indexes are slightly lower, with the UK lagging as local elections today will test the strength of the Labour/Starmer government. Germany factory orders were stronger than expected and European retail sales fell from last month but were slightly better than expected. Energy and Utilities are mostly lower in the region while miners are higher. Poland’s central bank kept rates unchanged as expected while Norway’s Norges Bank hiked in a surprise move. Japan played catchup after reopening following the Golden Week holiday, jumping over 5%. The yen was around unchanged, with no signs of another round of another intervention after several the past few days. Speakcring of the yen, Secretary Bessent will visit Japan next week and meet with finance officials. Chinese markets were higher as attention drifts to the Trump-Xi meeting next week.
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): ALB, APA, APP, ARM, ATO, AXON, BKD, BROS, CAPL, CF, CMP, CW, CXT, CODI, COHR, CPK, DASH, ES, FTNT, GNK, GT, HCI, HLI, HRB, HST, KTOS, MET, MUR, NVST, OBDC, PAYC, PRI, PTC. QGEN, RYN, O, TKO, TPL, WBD, WES, WHR, WTS, ZG
Pre-Market: ARW, BDX, CG, CRL, LNG, DDOG, EPAM, EVRG, FOUR, FUN, GWW, HAE, HTZ, HWM, KVUE, LEG, LNC, LOAR, MCD, MTD, PLNT, RXO, SHAK, SPB, SPH, SRE, TFX, TPR, TRGP, U, VST, WBD, ZTS
After-Market: ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, COIN, CRWV, DBX, DXC, DKNG, EXPE, FBIN, G, GILD, GMED, HUBS, MCHP, MCK, MP, MSI, NET, RGA, RKT, RMAX, RNG, RSG, STRZ, TOST, TTD, XYZ
Economic Data:
US:
- Challenger Job Cuts: 83.387k vs prior 60.26k
- Initial Jobless Claims: 200k vs 205k cons, prior 190k
- Continuing Claims: 1766k vs 1800k cons, prior 1776K
- Nonfarm Productivity (Q1) q.q: 0.8% vs 1.4% cons, prior 1.6%
- Unit Labor Costs: 2.3% vs 2.6% vs 4.6%
- Used Car Prices m.m: -1.6% vs prior 1.4%
- 10am Construction Spending
- 10:30am EIA Nat Gas Inventories
- 11am Consumer Inflation Expectations
- 2:05pm Fed Hammack, 3:30pm Williams
- 3:00pm Consumer Credit
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
- Australia Trade Balance: A$-1.841B vs A$4.25B cons, prior A$5.026B
- Germany Factory Orders m.m: 5.0% vs 1.0% cons, prior 1.4%
- Europe Retail Sales (March) m.m: -0.1% vs -0.3% cons, prior -0.3%
- Mexico Core CPI m.m: 0.31% vs 0.31% cons, prior 0.38%
- 3:00pm Mexico rate decision
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