STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/11/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 49,722 (+113), S&P 500 7,427 (+28), Russell 2000 2,883 (+22), NYSE FANG+ 9,024 (+48), ICE Brent Crude $104.21/barrel (+$2.92), Gold $4,733/oz (+$2), Bitcoin ~82.0k (+1754)
- Knicks, S&P 500 continue win streaks
- Ceasefire on "life support"
- Global yields higher; Commodities seeing broad gains
- CPI tomorrow, Trump/XI later this week
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 530: Viking CEO Tor Hagen on Brand Clarity, Destination Travel and Defining Luxury
- ETF Central: Red Panda Founder & CEO Ian Dunlap
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: April Home Prices Posted Strongest Monthly Gain in Nearly Two Years
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday the New York Knicks dismantled the Philadelphia 76ers to move to the Eastern Conference Finals. There was no need to watch the second half of the game and that gave mothers a wonderful Mother’s Day gift: undivided attention.
While the Knicks extended their playoff winning streak to seven games, the S&P 500 began this week aspiring to extend its winning streak to seven weeks. Last week the index was up >2%, closing just under 7,400 and driven by another very strong week of earnings, robust performance from mega cap tech and hopes that a diplomatic resolution with Iran could be reached.
On Sunday President Trump called Iran’s response to the US proposal to end the war “totally unacceptable”, with the response lacking any commitments on Iran’s nuclear program, according to the President. As we headed past noon, Trump said the ceasefire was on 'life support". Otherwise, it was a pretty quiet start to the week, which will see the latest CPI update tomorrow, and end with President Trump’s meeting with President Xi in China.
As we head into the afternoon the S&P is near its best level, up ~0.4%. The equal-weight is flat, however, and small caps are seeing some interesting divergence as the Russell 2000 is outperforming the 500 while the S&P 600 is down 0.3%. Banks are under some pressure following disclosures from WAL that a borrower would default on a $100m CRE life science loan. The small cap indexes are more heavily weighted to Financials, but strength in thematic/high beta areas (Quantum, Space, Rare Earths, etc) are boosting the Russell versus the 600. Credit and consumer finance names are also lower, though BDC FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) is modestly higher after reporting results that included NAV and dividend cuts, but were offset by announced steps to support the entity.
Most sectors are trading around flat-to-higher. Energy is the clear leader on oil and nat gas strength. Materials (Chemicals, Miners), Industrials (Aerospace, electrical equipment), Utilities (despite CEG lower on earnings) and Tech (Semis up again, software lower) are also up ~1%. The DRAM memory ETF is up 5% today, NYSE Semis +2% and NYSE 100 up 1%. Software maker Monday opened up ~20% following earnings but has since seen a sharp pullback, currently up 2%. The Washington Post reported that Trump could sign an executive order on AI security as soon as today.
Comm Services is lower with GOOG pulling back a bit after an extended run and META down as well. DIS is also pulling back after rallying last week on earnings. Staples are weak across the board, especially the large retailers (DG, TGT, DLTR, WMT down 3-5%).
A few corporate headlines:
- MOS: -1%, Well above pre-market lows. “Closely monitoring raw material markets, particularly sulfur, which recently hit record prices because of limited availability. As a result, Mosaic has withdrawn its phosphate production guidance for 2026 as it reviews its operating plan for the rest of the year.”
- MNDY: +4%, well off pre-market highs ~25% “The launch of the AI Work Platform and our shift to consumption-based pricing build directly on that momentum. As AI takes on more work for our customers, our business grows with it. We believe the best chapter of monday.com’s story is the one we are writing now.”….“The AI productivity gains we are seeing inside our own organization are demonstrating that we can grow revenue without growing headcount in lockstep”
- TH (modular workforce housing): +17%. Announced new $750M agreement to support AI infrastructure development
- DFH made all cash proposal to buy BZH for $25.75 (~$700ml)
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report, the only economic data today is Existing Home Sales, which were essentially inline with both consensus and last month.
Treasury yields are up ~5bps across the curve with the move higher in commodities and global yields, moving to the day's highs following a soft 3yr auction. The USD index is slightly higher though off its best levels of the day, with yen strength weighing on the dollar. Treasury Secretary is heading to Japan to meet PM Takaichi and Minster of Finance Katayama starting today. The Senate will hold a procedural vote this evening to move Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination forward.
- US 2yr +5bps to 2Y%, 5yr +6bps to 5Y%, 10yr +5bps to 10Y%, 30yr +5bps to 30Y%
- USD index: +$0.04 to $97.83
Commodities are seeing gains across-the-board. Brent crude is ~4% higher with the latest Iranian news. President Trump and Energy Secretary Wright said suspension of the Federal gas tax (~$0.18/gallon, $0.25 diesel) could be an option, though it would take an act of Congress. Saudi Aramco’s CEO suggested that if the Hormuz disruptions aren’t resolved in the next few weeks that oil markets will not normalize until 2027.
US natural gas is up 5%, which looks to be due to warmer weather forecasts driving near-term demand for AC. Gold was lower with oil higher and comments from India PM Modi (see below) but has pushed its way to unchanged, just under the 100d and declining 200d. Other precious metals are seeing strength, including silver up 6% as the metal blew past its 100d ma and reaching a 2-month high ~$87. Copper is continuing its run, up another 3% today and sitting at record highs. Ag is modestly higher and the market is digesting earnings commentary from potash/fertilizer producer Mosaic. Crypto moved higher over the weekend with outperformance in alt coins. Bitcoin and Ether are higher as well. Circle is up over 10% following earnings. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on the Clarity Act on Thursday with a push to get it passed before July 4th.
European equities were mostly lower but off their worst levels. UK led as the FTSE gained 0.3% despite gilt yields moving ~8bp higher across the curve. UK PM Keir Starmer continues to face political pressure following large losses by his party in local elections. Energy, Miners/resources saw solid gains (Rio +3%, Glencore +2%). Luxury (LVHM -5%. Kering -3%) and consumer names were under a bit of pressure, pushing France’s CAC index to the bottom today.
South Korea continued to be the standout up >4% with memory stocks leading (SK Hynix +11%, Samsung +6%) with more reports of energy shortages. Speaking of memory, Nintendo fell sharply overnight in Japan after cutting sales guidance amidst recent prices increases and warning of margin pressure. Inflation data in China came in hot showing the impact of the current situation in the Middle East. The Shanghai Composite was up >1% overnight while the Hang Seng closed around unchanged with some weakness in the large cap tech names. India fell ~2% with broad weakness as PM Modi called for the public to curb their use of oil, conserve energy supplies, reduce gold purchases and foreign travel to support the currency.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Mon): ACM, AMTM, ASTS, BKKT, CPRX, DDD, FIGR, GTM, HIMS, HLIT, IHRT, MARA, NOVT, OVV, PLUG, RGTI, SPG, STE, QUBT
- Pre-Market (Tues): ARMK, JD, Q, QBTS, RAL, SNBR, SPWR, UAA, VG, VSTS, ZBRA
- After-Market: (Tues): BIRD, KRMN, NXT, OKLO, REZI, VELO
Economic Data:
US:
- Existing Home Sales: 4.02M vs 4.05M cons, prior 4.01M
- 3yr Auction: Tailed by 0.6bp
Global:
- China CPI: 0.3% / 1.2% m.m / y/y vs. -0.1% / 0.8% cons., prior -0.7% / 1%
- China PPI: 2.8% vs. 1.5% cons., prior 0.5%
- China Vehicle Sales: -2.5% y/y, prior -0.6%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael Reinking, CFA - Senior Market Strategist
Published on 5/11/26 (a/o 9:15 am)
Good morning,
Welcome back and hopefully you enjoyed your Mother’s Day. Yesterday the New York Knicks gave mothers the greatest gift of all, time, as there wasn’t much of a need to tune in during the second half for the dismantling of the 76ers. The Knicks extended their winning streak to 7 games, a feat that the SP 500 is aspiring for as we enter this week on a six-week winning streak. The S&P 500 ended last week up >2% closing just under 7,400 driven by another very strong week of earnings and hopes that a diplomatic resolution with Iran could be reached.
Yesterday, President Trump said there was No Deal sending oil prices higher and equities modestly lower but we are off the worst level. Otherwise, it is a pretty quiet start to the week. The highlights for this options expiration week include inflation data (Tues/Wed), retail sales (Thurs) and President Trump’s trip to China at the end of the week. There continues to be upside momentum in chip and memory stocks in the pre-market.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report. The only economic data today is existing home sales which will be released at 10:00. There is a 3yr auction this afternoon. Treasury yields are up 2/3bps with the move higher in oil. The USD index is a touch higher continuing to hover just under its 200d ma (~$98.35). The Yen remains a focal point with Treasury Secretary heading to Japan to meet PM Takaichi and Minster of Finance Katayama.
Government Yields
As mentioned above oil prices are on the move higher again reversing about half of last week’s decline. Some other related headlines: over the weekend Energy Secretary Wright suggested that the White House could suspend the Federal gas tax (~$0.18). Saudi Aramco’s CEO suggested that if the Hormuz disruptions aren’t resolved in the next few weeks that oil markets will not normalize until 2027. Natural gas prices are up >3% in both the US and Europe. Gold was lower overnight on the Modi headlines but metals caught a significant bid at 8:30 but not quite sure why. Gold is around unchanged while Silver is up >5% and copper is up >2%. Ag is moving higher as well. Crypto moved higher over the weekend with outperformance in alt coins. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on the Clarity Act on Thursday with a push to get this passed before July 4th.
Couple of corporate headlines:
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CEG, CERT, CRCL, FOX/A, FSK, KEEL, MOS, PRKS, SBH, UNIT
Earnings After-Market: ACM, AMTM, ASTS, BKKT, CPRX, DDD, FIGR, GTM, HIMS, HLIT, IHRT, MARA, NOVT, OVV, PLUG, RGTI, SPG, STE, QUBT
Pre-Market: ARMK, JD, Q, QBTS, RAL, SNBR, SPWR, UAA, VG, VSTS, ZBRA
Economic Data:
US:
Global:
Welcome back and hopefully you enjoyed your Mother’s Day. Yesterday the New York Knicks gave mothers the greatest gift of all, time, as there wasn’t much of a need to tune in during the second half for the dismantling of the 76ers. The Knicks extended their winning streak to 7 games, a feat that the SP 500 is aspiring for as we enter this week on a six-week winning streak. The S&P 500 ended last week up >2% closing just under 7,400 driven by another very strong week of earnings and hopes that a diplomatic resolution with Iran could be reached.
Yesterday, President Trump said there was No Deal sending oil prices higher and equities modestly lower but we are off the worst level. Otherwise, it is a pretty quiet start to the week. The highlights for this options expiration week include inflation data (Tues/Wed), retail sales (Thurs) and President Trump’s trip to China at the end of the week. There continues to be upside momentum in chip and memory stocks in the pre-market.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report. The only economic data today is existing home sales which will be released at 10:00. There is a 3yr auction this afternoon. Treasury yields are up 2/3bps with the move higher in oil. The USD index is a touch higher continuing to hover just under its 200d ma (~$98.35). The Yen remains a focal point with Treasury Secretary heading to Japan to meet PM Takaichi and Minster of Finance Katayama.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +2bps to 2Y%, 5yr +3bps to 5Y%, 10yr +3bps to 10Y%, 30yr +2bps to 30Y%
- USD index: -$0.02 to $97.77
As mentioned above oil prices are on the move higher again reversing about half of last week’s decline. Some other related headlines: over the weekend Energy Secretary Wright suggested that the White House could suspend the Federal gas tax (~$0.18). Saudi Aramco’s CEO suggested that if the Hormuz disruptions aren’t resolved in the next few weeks that oil markets will not normalize until 2027. Natural gas prices are up >3% in both the US and Europe. Gold was lower overnight on the Modi headlines but metals caught a significant bid at 8:30 but not quite sure why. Gold is around unchanged while Silver is up >5% and copper is up >2%. Ag is moving higher as well. Crypto moved higher over the weekend with outperformance in alt coins. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on the Clarity Act on Thursday with a push to get this passed before July 4th.
Couple of corporate headlines:
- MOS: -7% “Closely monitoring raw material markets, particularly sulfur, which recently hit record prices because of limited availability. As a result, Mosaic has withdrawn its phosphate production guidance for 2026 as it reviews its operating plan for the rest of the year.”
- MNDY: +25% “The launch of the AI Work Platform and our shift to consumption-based pricing build directly on that momentum. As AI takes on more work for our customers, our business grows with it. We believe the best chapter of monday.com’s story is the one we are writing now.”….“The AI productivity gains we are seeing inside our own organization are demonstrating that we can grow revenue without growing headcount in lockstep”
- TH (modular workforce housing): +9%. Announced new $750M agreement to support AI infrastructure development
- DFH made all cash proposal to buy BZH for $25.75 (~$700ml)
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CEG, CERT, CRCL, FOX/A, FSK, KEEL, MOS, PRKS, SBH, UNIT
Earnings After-Market: ACM, AMTM, ASTS, BKKT, CPRX, DDD, FIGR, GTM, HIMS, HLIT, IHRT, MARA, NOVT, OVV, PLUG, RGTI, SPG, STE, QUBT
Pre-Market: ARMK, JD, Q, QBTS, RAL, SNBR, SPWR, UAA, VG, VSTS, ZBRA
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00 Existing Home Sales
- 11:30 3/6mo Auction
- 1:00 3yr Auction
Global:
- China CPI: 0.3%/1.2% m.m/y/y vs. -0.1%/0.8% cons., prior -0.7%/1%
- China PPI: 2.8% vs. 1.5% cons., prior 0.5%
- China Vehicle Sales: -2.5% y/y prior -0.6%
- 10:30 BOC Market Participant Survy
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