STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/3/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 52,989 (+504), S&P 500 7,596 (+106), Russell 2000 2,970 (+39), NYSE FANG+ 17,791 (+530), ICE Brent Crude $83.62/barrel (-$4.31), Gold $4,091/oz (-$16), Bitcoin ~63.8k (+890)
  • Welcoming in August with a rally
  • Mega-cap tech leading the way
  • Iran talks on again?
  • Oil/yields lower
  • Manufacturing activity picks up
  • Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
  • Inside the ICE House
  • Episode 548: Rubrik's Cal Al-Dhubaib on Securing AI Agents Without Slowing Innovations
  • ETF Central: Baron Capital Head of ETF Solutions Matt Camuso
  • NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
  • Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Good riddance to July and for investors that were heavily allocated to AI or other momentum trades it could not have come fast enough. The last week of the month was a very busy and volatile one, not what you would typically associate with the middle of the summer. There were a ton of earnings, key central bank rate decisions and the continuation of the momentum unwind early in the week before a clearing event on Thursday when Citadel bought the levered positions of hedge fund Situational Awareness. The mega-cap earnings were a mixed bag with Microsoft and Amazon posting very strong numbers particularly within their cloud segments while both Meta and Apple left a bit to be desired. The S&P 500 ended the week up 1% reclaiming its 50d ma on Friday and was essentially unchanged for the month, which does no justice to the volatility seen beneath the surface. The macro was also busy - Treasury yields moved higher throughout the week with the long-end hitting new YTD highs and there was coordinated Yen currency intervention heading into the weekend. Oil prices ended the week down after a de-escalation over the weekend before Iran broke the peace leading to a new round of strikes.

It’s like Ground Hog’s Day here yet again after President Trump called off strikes over the weekend suggesting negotiations taking place today could lead to a diplomatic resolution though Iranian officials have denied direct negotiations with the US. Oil prices are pulling back again with ICE Brent down ~5% trading ~$84 after testing its 50d ma overnight ($83). This is helping to take some of the pressure off of Treasury yields which are down ~5bps across the curve but off the lows. Continued currency intervention is the other big story on the macro front with both the US and Japan confirming the first coordinated currency intervention since 2011 and suggesting further action could be taken. Treasury Secretary Bessent supported the use of the FIMA Repo Facility which allows central banks to use Treasury holdings as collateral to access dollars as opposed to selling bonds in the open market. The Yen has continued to strengthen breaking below its 200d trading around 157¥/$ from ~164¥/$ last Thursday.

The Iran headlines and pullback in oil/yields is helping the risk on sentiment. Equity markets opened higher and have extended gains. The S&P 500 is up around 1.5% approaching 7,600 the upper end of the loose range it has been in since the start of May (7,200 - 7,600). While mega-cap tech is doing much of the heavy lifting with the NYSE FANG+ index up ~3%, the equal-weight S&P 500 is also up 0.75% with decent breadth >2:1 adv:dec. Energy and the more defensive sectors are underperforming. 
This morning’s economic data continues to point to a pickup in manufacturing activity. Final S&P Global manufacturing PMI ticked up slightly to 53.9 from the preliminary reading. ISM manufacturing accelerated from last month coming in ahead of estimates at 55.6, hitting the highest level since 2022. The underlying metrics were also positive pretty much across the board with new orders, production and backlog all increasing. The Employment index improved to 52.8 from 49.7, its highest level since August of 2022. The prices component remained elevated but did moderate from last month. Construction spending came in below estimates. Despite Chair Warsh’s desire for less communication and potntially Fed meetings according to the NYT Fed officials are hitting the media circuit. NY Fed Williams said he strongly supported last week’s rate decision as he believes inflation will moderate in the back half of the year. However, Fed Musalem , a non-voting member, said he would have dissented. Treasury yields are down 3-5bps across the curve backing off modestly from the recent highs. 

  • US 2yr -4bps to 4.26%, 5yr -5bps to 4.40%, 10yr -5bps to 4.69%, 30yr -5bps to 5.23%
  • USD index: +$0.09 to $99.88
We’ve also got a merger Monday with a handful of announced deals. The FT also reported that AstraZeneca has held talks with Bristol Myers, which if a deal comes to fruition would be the largest pharma deal on record. Below are some of the other announced deals.

  • Linthium being taken private by Curium for total value of $8B cash + CVR
  • INDV and SUPN announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger of equals
  • Integer Holdings (ITGR) being bought by KKR for $4.3B ($127/sh) rumored by WSJ on Friday
  • Atkore (ATKR) being bought by Prysmian for $3.8B ($95/sh)
  • Visa buying privately held BioCatch for $2.4B
  • Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) being acquired for $1.2B ($34/sh) by American Family 
Within the S&P 500 6 of 11 sectors are higher. Mega-cap tech is well bid with all of the hyperscalers up ~5%. The neoclouds are also moving sharply higher again with Coreweave leading to the upside after the recent partnership with Leidos to deliver cloud services for US government intelligence and defense. On Tuesday the White House will meet with AI companies to discuss the framework from reviewing cybersecurity capabilities of advanced models. Apple is the notable underperformer still struggling after last week’s earnings. Within tech the semis and memory stocks have recouped some of the early losses but are mostly lower. Reports that CXMT is considering building a second DRAM plant in Beijing is weighing on the latter. Nvidia (3%) strength is masking some of the weakness within semis. There are broad-based gains across software with the IGV breaking above its 200d a level it has been consistently below since the end of last year (see Chart).
Communication services is the best performing sector with the hyperscalers doing much of the heavy lifting but the media stocks are also performing well after a strong box office weekend. Movie theatres continue to trade well (IMAX/AMC). Consumer discretionary is up ~2.5% with a similar dynamic. Amazon accounts for nearly ¾ of the gains. There is also strength in housing related with the pullback in yields. Hotels are under some pressure after Marriot (-7%) disappointed and casinos are also under some pressure following disappointing Macau gaming results. eBay is down ~5% after Gamestop announced a debt for equity swap. Within Industrials building products, AI infrastructure exposed and airlines outperform while defense and rails underperform.

Defensive sectors are underperforming. Healthcare is a mixed bag with pharma trading lower, Eli Lilly accounts for much of the weakness. On the flip side healthcare equipment stocks are trading higher. Energy is moving lower with the commodity while President Trump voices his displeasure with the elevated prices at the pump again. 
Global markets were mixed overnight. The Nikkei sold off modestly with concerns around the currency intervention particularly weighing on financials and autos while tech was mixed. After the double digit bounce back on Friday the Kospi was down >5% overnight with the memory stocks under pressure (CXMT news discussed above). In China manufacturing PMI missed estimates. The Shanghai Composite moved modestly lower while the Hang Seng was up a similar amount. Alibaba was up 7% (ADR +4%) after it released its most recent Qwen AI model. European indices closed higher with Germany, France and Spain all hitting new highs. The AZN weakness and energy stocks weighed on the FTSE 100. Germany outperformed despite a weak retail sales number with SAP (+5%) a standout. Deutsche Telekom is also higher amidst reports of pushback in T-Mobile deal talks. 
Oil prices have held the bulk of the losses despite Iran refuting the deal talks. US nat gas prices are up modestly while prices in Europe are lower. Metals are mixed. Ag has reversed early losses. Crypto has improved since the open. Reportedly over 1k Bitcoin have been lost in the cold wallet hack which started last Friday. MicroStrategy reported it sold $105ml Bitcoin last week. Commentary around the prospect of Clarity Act has been pretty negative, according to press reports the administration has yet to respond to the Democratic ethics counterproposal. 
Quickly looking ahead this afternoon the Senior Loan Officer Survey and Treasury Refunding estimate will be released. Tomorrow's economic data includes JOLTS job openings and factory orders. It will continue to be busy on the earnings front. Tomorrow’s White House AI meeting will also get some attention.

Earnings:
After-Market: AHRT, ALG, ARE, ALSN, AMRC, AESI, BSM, BCC, BRCC, BWXT, CBT, CSR, CLX, CRD.B, CRGY, CTOS, DAC, EC, GPOR, IBTA, IRT, IIPR, INVX, INSP, IVT, JBTM, JELD, MATX, MED, MTUS, NJR, OKE, ON, OPAD, PAY, PGR, PLTR, POWL, SBAC, SNAP, TTI, TDW, TKO, TGS, UTL, VVX, VTS, VNO, VOYG, WHR, WMB
Pre-Market: ACRE, ADM, AIN, AME, AOMR, APO, APTV, ATKR, BALL, BOW, BR, BRBR, BRSL, BXDC, CAT, CLDT, CMI, CTRI, DD, DOCN, DUK, ENR, ET, EVEX, EXPD, FIS, HSBC, GPK, GWW, HVT, INGR, IT, KIM, KNF, LDOS, MCD, MD, MPC, MPLX, MRK, MRP, NPO, NRG, NXRT, OPLN, PEG, PFE, PNW, PRKS, Q, ROK, RVTY, SMP, SPOT, SQNS, STVN, SUN, SYY, TDG, TKR, TPB, TREX, ULS, USAC, W, WAT, WLK, WLKP
After-Market: ACEL, AFG, AIZ, ALAB, ALIT, AMD, AMGN, AMWL, ANET, ANGX, ARDT, AROC, BBBY, BIO, BKNG, BV, BXC, CALY, CC, CE, CHCT, COMP.EQ, CPNG, CRBG, DBRG, DEI, DOC, DVA, DVN, ECG, ECO, EMR, EOG, EQH, EVTC, FBIN, FOA, FTK, GIC, GILD, GXO, HL, HNGE, HY, IFF, IPI, ITUB, J, JAN, JBGS, JXN, KAI, KODK, LDI, LRN, LACC, LUMN, MAC, MBC, MEC, MNTN, MOS, NGL, NVGS, NXDR, OGS, PACS, PARR, PINS, PRIM, PRU, PSTL, RBA, RVLV, RYAM, SGHC, SKT, SKY, SPCX, TALO, TBI, TDC, TOST, TSLX, TX, UP, USNA, VOYA, VTOL, WK, WTRG, WTTR, ZETA

Economic Data:
US:
  • Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 prior 53.8
  • ISM Manufacturing: 55.6 vs. 54 cons., prior 53.3
  • Construction Spending: -0.1% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.1%
  • 11:30 3/6mo T-Bill Auction
  • 2:00 Senior Loan Officer Survey
  • 3:00 Treasury Refunding Finance Estimates
Global:
  • China Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 vs. 51.5 cons., prior 51.7
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (final): 54.5 revised from 54.7
  • India Manufacturing PMI (final): 53.5 revised from 53.9
  • EU Manufacturing PMI (final): 51.9 revised from 52
  • Germany Manufacturing PMI (final): 52.2 unrevised
  • Germany Retail Sales:-1.1% vs. -0.5% cons., prior 1.2%
  • UK Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 revised from 52.8
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 08/03/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
Last week was a very busy and volatile one with a ton of earnings, key central bank rate decisions and the continuation of the momentum unwind early in the week before a clearing event on Thursday when Citadel bought the levered positions of hedge fund Situational Awareness. The mega-cap earnings were a mixed bag with Microsoft and Amazon posting very strong numbers particularly within their cloud segments while both Meta and Apple left a bit to be desired. The S&P 500 ended the week up 1% reclaiming its 50d ma on Friday. The two other big stories throughout the week were the continued move higher in Treasury yields with the long-end hitting new YTD highs and the coordinated Yen currency intervention. Oil prices ended the week down after a de-escalation over the weekend before Iran broke the peace leading to a new round of strikes.
 
It’s like Ground Hog’s Day here yet again after President Trump called off strikes over the weekend suggesting negotiations taking place today could lead to a diplomatic resolution. Oil prices are pull back again with ICE Brent down ~5% holding at its 50d ma ~$83. This is helping to take some of the pressure off of Treasury yields which are down ~5bps across the curve but off the lows. Continued currency intervention is the other big story on the macro front with both the US and Japan confirming the first coordinated currency intervention since 2011 and suggesting further action could be taken. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports the use of the FIMA Repo Facility which allows central banks to use Treasury holdings as collateral to access dollar as opposed to selling bonds in the open market. The Yen has continued to strengthen breaking below its 200d trading around 157¥/$ from ~164¥/$ last Thursday.
 
The Iran headlines and pullback in oil/yields is putting a bid under US futures. However, it is notable that we’re seeing weakness in chips and DRAM stocks in the pre-market with the latter being weighed down by reports that CXMT is considering building a second DRAM plant in Beijing. Software stocks are bid up. S&P futures are currently up 0.6% while Russell 2k futures are up ~1%.
 

 
On the equity side we’ve got a merger Monday. The FT reported that AstraZeneca (-7%) has held to talks to merge with Bristol Myers (+3%)which would be the largest pharma deal on record. Below are some of the other announced deals.
  • Linthium being taken private by Curium for total value of $8B cash + CVR
  • INDV and SUPN announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger of equals
  • Integer Holdings (ITGR) being bought by KKR for $4.3B ($127/sh) rumored by WSJ on Friday
  • Atkore (ATKR) being bought by Prysmian for $3.8B ($95/sh)
  • Visa buying privately held BioCatch for $2.4B
  • Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) being acquired for $1.2 ($34/sh) by American Family
 
Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing will be released after the open. NY Fed Williams said he strongly supported last week’s hold as he believes inflation will moderate in the back half of the year. However, Fed Musalem , a non-voting member, said he would have dissented. There are reports that Fed Chair Warsh floated the idea of less Fed policy meetings last week.
 
  • US 2yr -4bps to 4.25%, 5yr -5bps to 4.41%, 10yr -5bps to 4.69%, 30yr -5bps to 5.23%
  • USD index: -$0.12 to $99.67
 
Global markets were mixed overnight. The Nikkei sold off modestly with concerns around the currency intervention particularly weighing on financials and autos while tech was mixed. After the double digit bounce back on Friday the Kospi was down >5% overnight with the memory stocks under pressure. In China the Shanghai Composite moved modestly lower while the Hang Seng was up a similar amount. Alibaba was up 7% (ADR +4%) after it released its most recent Qwen AI model. European indices are moving higher. The AZN weakness is weighing on the FTSE 100. Germany is outperforming despite a weak retail sales number with SAP (+5%) a standout. Deutsche Telekom is also higher amidst reports of pushback in T-Mobile deal talks.
 

 
We discussed oil prices above. US nat gas prices are up modestly while prices in Europe are lower. Metals tried to rally overnight but have turned lower with momentum picking up over the last hour. Ag is modestly lower. Crypto is also under some pressure. Reportedly over 1k Bitcoin have been lost in the cold wallet hack which started last Friday. MicroStrategy reported it sold $105ml Bitcoin last week. Commentary around the prospect of Clarity Act has been pretty negative. Bitcoin is around where it closed on Friday just under 63k while Ethereum is modestly lower ~1.85k.
 

 
Earnings:
Pre-Market: ALX, AVA, CMDB, CNA, CNH, DEA, HESM, KOS, L, MAR, PLOW, SBH, TSN
After-Market: AHRT, ALG, ARE, ALSN, AMRC, AESI, BSM, BCC, BRCC, BWXT, CBT, CSR, CLX, CRD.B, CRGY, CTOS, DAC, EC, GPOR, IBTA, IRT, IIPR, INVX, INSP, IVT, JBTM, JELD, MATX, MED, MTUS, NJR, OKE, ON, OPAD, PAY, PGR, PLTR, POWL, SBAC, SNAP, TTI, TDW, TKO, TGS, UTL, VVX, VTS, VNO, VOYG, WHR, WMB
Pre-Market: ACRE, ADM, AIN, AME, AOMR, APO, APTV, ATKR, BALL, BOW, BR, BRBR, BRSL, BXDC, CAT, CLDT, CMI, CTRI, DD, DOCN, DUK, ENR, ET, EVEX, EXPD, FIS, HSBC, GPK, GWW, HVT, INGR, IT, KIM, KNF, LDOS, MCD, MD, MPC, MPLX, MRK, MRP, NPO, NRG, NXRT, OPLN, PEG, PFE, PNW, PRKS, Q, ROK, RVTY, SMP, SPOT, SQNS, STVN, SUN, SYY, TDG, TKR, TPB, TREX, ULS, USAC, W, WAT, WLK, WLKP
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • 9:45 Final Manufacturing PMI: prior 53.8
  • 10:00 ISM Manufacturing: vs. 54 cons., prior 53.3
  • 10:00 Construction Spending: vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.1%
  • 11:30 3/6mo T-Bill Auction
  • 2:00 Senior Loan Officer Survey
  • 3:00 Treasury Refunding Finance Estimates
Global:
  • China Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 vs. 51.5 cons., prior 51.7
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (final): 54.5 revised from 54.7
  • India Manufacturing PMI (final): 53.5 revised from 53.9
  • EU Manufacturing PMI (final): 51.9 revised from 52
  • Germany Manufacturing PMI (final): 52.2 unrevised
  • Germany Retail Sales:-1.1% vs. -0.5% cons., prior 1.2%
  • UK Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 revised from 52.8

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