STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 7/8/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 52,306 (-619), S&P 500 7,470 (-34), Russell 2000 2,952 (-30), NYSE FANG+ 17,275 (-22), ICE Brent Crude $78.47/barrel (+$4.31), Gold $4,078/oz (-$80), Bitcoin ~$62.0k (-$1334)
- Iran turns hot again
- Oil up but yields contained
- Precious metals fall
- Tech relatively strong; Semis up, hyperscalers pull back
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 543: America250 Chair Rosie Rios on Unity, Storytelling, and America's 250 Years
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday the momentum/AI unwind continued, leaving the major indices in the red. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% but ended the day off of session lows as mega-cap tech stocks bounced while AI-capex beneficiaries were under pressure. Semi and memory stocks were down >5% despite the strong Samsung earnings report, highlighting the high bar ahead of earnings season. Oil prices and Treasury yields moved higher as shots were fired at multiple ships in the Strait. Late in the day the Treasury reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil which sent energy stocks higher into the close. Healthcare and defensive/yield-oriented sectors also ended with gains. The momentum unwind left not only semis, memory and other AI adjacent stocks in its wake, but other more speculative themes also moved sharply lower including rare-earths, robotics, space and quantum.
The Iran situation deteriorated overnight as the US carried out airstrikes, but US equity futures were only trading modestly lower when European markets opened. However, ~4:00am during a press conference at the NATO summit President Trump said as far as he was concerned, the ceasefire was over. He left the door open a smidge for a diplomatic resolution, saying negotiators could continue to talk even though he thought it was a “waste of time”. The comments triggered the typical risk-off conflict flows but the absolute moves were contained as markets continued to discount a significant escalation as we move ever closer to mid-terms. Investors also don’t want to be caught again on the wrong side of the “escalate to deescalate” action.
S&P futures were down >1% at the lows but the cash index opened down a modest 0.4%. Brent crude gapped up above the 200d ($74.25) but was only back to where it was two weeks ago. The S&P 500 weakened to session lows shortly after the open, down around 1%, but found support at the 50d ma (7415). We’re back around opening levels currently. The equal-weight is lagging, down about 1%, as are small caps.
As we approached noon, Tech began to strengthen, pushing the S&P off the lows, while Energy lost some momentum. Semis are leading the way as the ICE Semi Index is up ~2% after being down 1% at the lows (Nvida from -1% to +3%, Micron -4% to flat). The hyperscalers are seeing a modest pullback from recent gains.
Energy is the only other sector with significant gains, but it’s come off the highs as Brent came back in from its highs ~$80.50. That coincided with President Trump’s remarks at the NATO summit around noon. Trump has had several batches of comments today, which have also delved into NATO, Ukraine and Lebanon. They’ve ranged from bellicose (“We may need to take Kharg Island), to conciliatory (“I don’t think the Iran war will start again’), to economically fascinating (“Oil will be very free, very easy, very fast”). The Materials sectors is lagging as supply/input risk returns and most other sectors are mingling around -1%.
Treasury yields are up about 2bp across the curve, a modest increase given crude’s move. Today’s 10yr auction was strong, stopping through by 0.6bp. The FOMC minutes at 2pm will be widely read. They could provide interesting insight after Chair Warsh stonewalled the press at his first press conference, though much is likely dependent on his various Task Forces that will reporting back over the next few months. The USD Index is flat, having also pulled back from a modest move higher, and back under 101.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.22%, 5yr +3bps to 4.32%, 10yr +2bps to 4.58%, 30yr +1bps to 5.07%
- USD index: -$0.01 to $100.77
Global markets were under pressure overnight. Weakness continued in Asia with the Nikkei falling 2%, matching Tuesday’s decline. The Kospi was off ~5% and has now entered into a technical bear market after declining 20% from the all-time high hit on 6/19. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was an exception, which closed up 3% after the large cap consumer-facing tech stocks shot higher. Alibaba gained +12%, Tencent 4%. Alibaba’s strength was driven in part by a pre-earnings analyst update, according to Bloomberg. Reports that the Chinese government is considering restricting overseas use of the country’s top AI models, more news on those models gaining ground on US models, in addition to reports that DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing their own chips also helped push tech stocks higher. In addition, The Information is reporting that China plans to let AI companies buy a limited amount of Nvidia’s H200 chips. European indices extended losses after Trump’s initial Iran comments hit around the time markets opened on the continent, finishing down ~2%. Weakness was broad with virtually every sector awash in red except Energy.
Brent crude is up 6% but off its highs and back below $80. US natural gas has turned lower however while European gas climbs 5%, extending yesterday’s 5% gain. This morning’s EIA crude inventory data showed an unexpected build of 3M barrels, versus consensus of a 2.4M draw. It was the first build in 10 months, as the Iran conflict triggered significant inventory drawdowns to mitigate supply constraints and contain prices. It hasn’t been able to dent crude’s strength today. According to Bloomberg China approved the export of 1.3ml tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in July, lifting a ban that has been in place since March.
The metals complex is under pressure. Gold is down 2% while silver and other precious metals are down 5% despite a rather modest move in yields and the Dollar. Ag is pulling back from recent gains. Crypto’s recent signs of life are turning lethargic again today. Bitcoin is down over 2% to ~$62k while Ethereum is pulling back 4% to ~$1,750.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AZZ, LEVI, PSMT
- Pre-Market (Thrs): PEP, SMPL
- After-Market (Thrs): WDFC
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage Apps: -0.6% vs prior 0.5%
- Refis: -4.1% vs -0.7% prior
- 30yr Rate: 6.58% prior 6.57%
- Used Car Prices (Manheim Index) m.m / y.y: 0.1% / 2.1% vs prior 0.7% / 3.6%
- Wholesale Inventories: 0.1% vs 0.3% cons, prior 0.7%
- EIA Oil Inventories: +2.998M vs -2.4M cons, prior -3.775M
- API inventories (Tues AMC): -0.399M vs cons -1.5M, prior -6.072M
- 2:00 FOMC Minutes
- 3:00 Consumer Credit
Global:
- Japan Bank Lending: 5.7% vs. 5.8% cons, prior 5.7%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/8/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday, there was a continued momentum/AI unwind leaving major indices in the red. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% ending the day off of session lows as mega-cap tech stock bounced while the AI-capex beneficiaries were under pressure. Semi and memory stocks were down >5% despite the strong Samsung earnings report overnight highlighting the high bar ahead of earnings season. Oil prices and Treasury yields moved higher as shots were fired at multiple ships in the Strait. Late in the day the Treasury reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil which sent energy stocks higher into the close. Outside of energy, which was up 3%, healthcare and other defensive/yield-oriented sectors ended with gains. The momentum unwind left not only semis, memory and other AI adjacent stocks in its wake, but other more speculative themes also moved sharply lower including rare-earths, robotics, space and quantum.
The US carried out airstrikes in Iran overnight, but US equity futures were only trading modestly lower as European markets opened. However, ~4:00 during a press conference at the NATO summit President Trump said as far as he was concerned, the ceasefire was over but left the door open a smidge for a diplomatic resolution saying negotiators could continue to talk even though he thought it was a “waste of time”. The comments triggered the typical risk off conflict flows however, the absolute moves are somewhat muted as markets continue to discount a significant escalation ahead of midterms and don’t want to be fooled again by the escalate to deescalate playbook. S&P futures were down >1% at the lows but have cut those losses about in half. Oil prices are holding the bulk of the rally with ICE Brent reclaiming its 200d ma trading up ~5% at ~$78. Treasury yields initially jumped 3-4bps but have pulled back only up 1bps across the curve while the USD index moves modestly higher trading just under $101.
The only economic data on the calendar is wholesale inventories. However, this afternoon there is a 10yr auction and the FOMC Minutes will be released. The minutes could provide some somewhat interesting insight after Chair Warsh stonewalled the press.
With the exception of the Hong Kong Hang Seng which closed up 3% after the large cap tech stocks bounced back, global markets were under pressure overnight. The tech weakness continued to weight on other Asian markets with the Nikkei falling 2%.The Kospi was off ~5% and has now entered into a technical bear market after declining 20% from the all-time high hit on 6/19. In China tech stocks rallied after there were reports that the government is considering restricting overseas use of its top AI models while there continue to be reports that DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing their own chips. European indices extended losses after the Iran comments and are down 1-2%. The weakness is broad based with energy stocks pretty much the only green on the screen.
We discussed oil prices above potentially helping on the product side of things according to Bloomberg China have approved the export of 1.3ml tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in July lifting a ban that has been in place since March. US natural gas prices are up ~1% while prices in Europe are up ~3% extending yesterday’s >5% move higher. The metals complex is under pressure down 2-5%. Ag is modestly higher holding recent gains. Crypto which had started to show some signs of life recently is back under pressure. Bitcoin is down ~2% at 62k while Ethereum is pulling back >3% to ~1,750.
Pretty quiet on the corporate headline front.
US:
Yesterday, there was a continued momentum/AI unwind leaving major indices in the red. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% ending the day off of session lows as mega-cap tech stock bounced while the AI-capex beneficiaries were under pressure. Semi and memory stocks were down >5% despite the strong Samsung earnings report overnight highlighting the high bar ahead of earnings season. Oil prices and Treasury yields moved higher as shots were fired at multiple ships in the Strait. Late in the day the Treasury reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil which sent energy stocks higher into the close. Outside of energy, which was up 3%, healthcare and other defensive/yield-oriented sectors ended with gains. The momentum unwind left not only semis, memory and other AI adjacent stocks in its wake, but other more speculative themes also moved sharply lower including rare-earths, robotics, space and quantum.
The US carried out airstrikes in Iran overnight, but US equity futures were only trading modestly lower as European markets opened. However, ~4:00 during a press conference at the NATO summit President Trump said as far as he was concerned, the ceasefire was over but left the door open a smidge for a diplomatic resolution saying negotiators could continue to talk even though he thought it was a “waste of time”. The comments triggered the typical risk off conflict flows however, the absolute moves are somewhat muted as markets continue to discount a significant escalation ahead of midterms and don’t want to be fooled again by the escalate to deescalate playbook. S&P futures were down >1% at the lows but have cut those losses about in half. Oil prices are holding the bulk of the rally with ICE Brent reclaiming its 200d ma trading up ~5% at ~$78. Treasury yields initially jumped 3-4bps but have pulled back only up 1bps across the curve while the USD index moves modestly higher trading just under $101.
The only economic data on the calendar is wholesale inventories. However, this afternoon there is a 10yr auction and the FOMC Minutes will be released. The minutes could provide some somewhat interesting insight after Chair Warsh stonewalled the press.
- US 2yr +0bps to 4.20%, 5yr +1bps to 4.30%, 10yr +1bps to 4.57%, 30yr +1bps to 5.07%
- USD index: +$0.20 to $100.98
With the exception of the Hong Kong Hang Seng which closed up 3% after the large cap tech stocks bounced back, global markets were under pressure overnight. The tech weakness continued to weight on other Asian markets with the Nikkei falling 2%.The Kospi was off ~5% and has now entered into a technical bear market after declining 20% from the all-time high hit on 6/19. In China tech stocks rallied after there were reports that the government is considering restricting overseas use of its top AI models while there continue to be reports that DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing their own chips. European indices extended losses after the Iran comments and are down 1-2%. The weakness is broad based with energy stocks pretty much the only green on the screen.
We discussed oil prices above potentially helping on the product side of things according to Bloomberg China have approved the export of 1.3ml tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in July lifting a ban that has been in place since March. US natural gas prices are up ~1% while prices in Europe are up ~3% extending yesterday’s >5% move higher. The metals complex is under pressure down 2-5%. Ag is modestly higher holding recent gains. Crypto which had started to show some signs of life recently is back under pressure. Bitcoin is down ~2% at 62k while Ethereum is pulling back >3% to ~1,750.
Pretty quiet on the corporate headline front.
- Apple and Broadcom reached a new $30B chip deal (both stocks around unchanged while there continue to be reports that the former is testing China memory at least for phones sold there.
- Fiserv (-2%) - after yesterday’s rumors of banks looking at the company there was another executive departure
- Exxon (+1%) filing signaled earnings could be up $5B from previous quarter helped by upstream and refining profits
- HELE (+2%) - earnings beat and raised 2027 revenue guidance
- PENG (+7%) - earnings beat and raise highlighting AI demand
- EPAC (+6%) - earnings beat helped by IEEPA tax refunds also buying SFEG for just under $500ml
US:
- Mortgage Apps: -2.2% w.w prior 0%; 30yr Rate: 6.58% prior 6.57%
- 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
- 1:00 10yr Auction
- 2:00 FOMC Minutes
- 3:00 Consumer Credit
- Japan Bank Lending: 5.7% vs. 5.8% cons., prior 5.7%
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