Market Update

DOW 48,372 (-86), S&P 500 6,821 (-6), Russell 2000 2,533 (-18), NYSE FANG+ 15,770 (-374), ICE Brent Crude $60.20/barrel (-$0.92), Gold $4,338/oz (+$10), Bitcoin ~86.2k (-3965)

• Last full trading week of '25
• S&P stumbles after opening higher
• Weakness in Energy, tech; Healthcare leading
• Bitcoin weakness at key levels
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 504: Delta CEO Ed Bastian on 100 Years, Expanding Horizons, and Personalizing Every Journey
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage Refinance Retention Hits Multi-year High as Falling Rates Spur Activity Among Recently Originated Loans
  • ETF Central: Rich Habits Podcast Co-Hosts Robert Croak and Austin Hankwitz
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
After a mixed week, US equity markets started the final full trading week of 2025 in the green. That marked the high point so far today as the S&P quickly moved lower after the Opening Bell. We wiped out the initial 0.5% gain and are currently down 0.3%. Megacap tech is a source of weakness though the equal-weight is trading about inline. Small cap names are lagging, with the Russell 2000 trailing the S&P 600. Thematic baskets are also weak (Quantum, nuclear, data centers flat to down 10%). 
 


ServiceNow (downgrade and reportedly acquiring cybersecurity startup Armis) and Broadcom (follow-through from Friday’s earnings) are among the weaker names in Tech today. Energy is the lagging sector however as both crude and natural gas continue to slide. Healthcare meanwhile is leading today. Biopharma is strong across the group and the managed care names are also trading mostly higher.



Treasury yields are flat to down 2bps after backing up last week. The USD index is around flat, trying to hold 98 ahead of a busy week for central bank rate decisions (BOE, ECB, BOJ).     

• US 2yr -2bps to 3.51%, 5yr -1bps to 3.73%, 10yr -0bps to 4.18%, 30yr +0bps to 4.85%
• USD index: -$0.03 to $97.99

It’s a light economic calendar today. The Empire Manufacturing survey dropped into negative territory, driven by a decline in new orders and shipments. The employment component held steady and prices moderated for the second consecutive month but remained elevated.

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose one point in December to 39 (>50 = majority of builders are confident). It's been slowly improving off its lows but remains suppressed. Home builder Lennar will report earnings tomorrow afternoon. The rest of the week will include jobs data (ADP weekly, NFP for Oct and Nov), retail sales, CPI and flash PMIs. 



Fed members Williams, Collins and Miran spoke today. Williams said it was too early to say what the Fed would need to do in January but said he was “very supportive” of the rate cut decision last week and noted that he expects incoming job data to continue to cool. Miran noted his strong desire to cut. Collins said she supported the cut as well but it was a close call. Kevin Warsh is making a push down the homestretch like Rich Strike in the ’22 Kentucky Derby to replace Fed Chair Powell. His odds tightened significantly after comments from President Trump and JPM CEO Jamie Dimon over the last couple of days. On Polymarket and Kalshi he's now the favorite at 46% / 48% with Hassett at 42% / 40%.

Commodities are mixed. Crude is lower with Brent threatening to break below $60 and down for the 5^th day in the last six. Despite snow yesterday and a cold and icy morning today in NYC, natural gas prices continue to move lower, approaching $4 in the US while TTF is also lower. Metals are faring better, especially the precious kind as gold, silver, platinum and palladium add 2-5%. Copper is also modestly higher despite soft China data but has pulled back from its best levels of the day after testing $5. Ag is mostly lower. Bitcoin failed to hold the 20d ma ~$90k and selling pressure kicked in, bringing the decentralized ledger to ~$85k as it tests another important level. ETH is down ~5% as well. According to the WSJ, JP Morgan will issue a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, open to qualified investors on Tuesday.



Global markets were mixed overnight, basically mirroring the rotation seen in US markets last week. AI/tech stocks were under pressure, weighing on markets in Asia while European indices less exposed moved higher. Euro area industrial production grew 0.8% m.m, accelerating from 0.2% last month, providing a boost to start the week. The Nikkei fell >1% after closing just below 51K on Friday. The 50d support at ~49.5k is just below, with the BOJ rate decision Thursday night. In China major indexes also fell. Retail sales and industrial production both missed expectations. President Xi’s latest comments underscored China’s attempt to move away from spending for the sake of spending and instead pursuing more long-term, economically beneficial projects.  




Earnings:

• After-Market (Tues): LEN, WOR

Economic Data:
US:

• Empire manufacturing: -3.9 vs. 10 cons., prior 18.7
• NAHB Housing Market Index: 39 vs. 38 cons., prior 38
• Fed speakers: Miran, Collins, Williams

Global:

• China Industrial Production: 4.8% y/y vs. 5% cons., prior 4.9%
• China Retail Sales: 1.3% vs. 2.9% cons,. prior 2.9%
• China Home prices: -2.4% y/y prior -2.2%
• China Unemployment: 5.1% vs. 5.1% cons,. prior 5.1%
• China FAI: -2.3% vs. -2.6% cons., prior -1.7%
• Germany wholesale prices: 0.3% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.3%
• EU Industrial Production: 0.8% vs. 0.8% cons, prior 0.2%
• Canada CPI: 0.1% vs. 0.1% cons,. prior 0.2%