Market Update

DOW 47,750 (-205), S&P 500 6,849 (-21), Russell 2000 2,527 (+6), NYSE FANG+ 16,571 (-37), ICE Brent Crude $62.72/barrel (-$1.03), Gold $4,224/oz (-$19), Bitcoin ~90.2k (+1052)

• Sluggish start after a run of gains
• Yields backing up again
• Lining up for Fed Day on Wednesday
• Not much econ data but several big investor days 
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 502: Author & Entrepreneur Brad Feld on Mentorship, Leadership, & Building Better Ecosystems
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage Refinance Retention Hits Multi-year High as Falling Rates Spur Activity Among Recently Originated Loans
  • ETF Central: Former CNBC Senior Markets Correspondent Bob Pisani
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
Since holding it’s 100d ma in late November, the S&P 500 has closed in the green 9 out the past ten trading days.  A reclamation of the 50d average and the 6800 level occurred during that streak, and on Friday the S&P 500 came within inches of 6900. Heading into the open today, the ATH was less than 1% above. We opened slightly higher but that has been the best level so far, again unable to generate much of a push to 6900. The index has steadily faded since the bell, down 0.3% as we hit afternoon trading, but off the lows. While the equal-weight and mid-caps are trading about inline, small caps are outperforming, flat to modestly higher.



The declines are broadly distributed with almost all sectors lower. Comm Services and Discretionary are the worst performers. Netflix is down another 4% as Paramount Skydance enters the bidding for Warner Bros. Alphabet is consolidating after its run to $320. In Discretionary, Tesla caught a sell-side downgrade, sending the stock down 4%. Lucid and Rivian were also downgraded to in a tough day for EVs. The Travel & Leisure group is also seeing declines as are homebuilders and a lot of the retailers.   

Tech is the only sector substantially higher. Semis are mostly stronger. Broadcom is gaining at the expense of Marvell on reports Microsoft is considering shifting its custom chip business away from Marvell (-7%) to Broadcom (+3%).  On the AI front the major catalysts this week include the release of the next GPT 5.2 model (tomorrow). Earnings from Oracle and Broadcom will be also be closely watched. This morning on Truth Social President Trump said he will sign a ONE RULE Executive Order to streamline approval processes for AI and federalize regulation, versus a patchwork of state regimes. So it's a little different than Tolkien's One Ring To Rule Them All. Could make for some good memes though. 

Earnings tomorrow include Toll Brothers, AutoZone and Designer Brands. It’s a busy week for Analyst Days. Deere and NextEra held Investor Days today- both are trading relatively unchanged. Xcel, CVS, Home Depot, GE Vernova will host their own meetings tomorrow. 



Treasury yields are backing up again, 3-4bp across the curve as global rates move higher as well. The 10y is back above 4.15% and the highs at the beginning of October.  The US Dollar index is higher, above 99 again with modest gains on the major crosses.

• US 2yr +3bps to 3.59%, 5yr +4bps to 3.76%, 10yr +4bps to 4.18%, 30yr +3bps to 4.83%
• USD index: +$0.13 to $99.10

Global markets were mixed overnight. China’s trade surplus exceeded $1T with exports coming in well ahead of expectations despite shipments to the US falling 29%. However, imports came in below expectations. The Shanghai Composite closed modestly higher, but the Hang Seng fell ~1%. The Nikkei closed a touch higher despite Q3 GDP being revised down to -0.6% from -0.4%. Local yields at the long end of the curve continued to move higher up 2-3bps. European indices traded on either side of unchanged. German industrial production came in ahead of expectations.



Commodities are lower across the complex after China trade data highlighted once again the disparity in its economy between domestic demand and export-driven growth. Crude is down >1%, pulling back below its 50-day after rallying in the back half of last week.  US natural gas is sharply lower, giving back all of Friday’s rally - hopefully that means it’s about to get warmer. Metals are mostly lower including gold and silver. Ag prices have reversed earlier, modest gains. President Trump is expected to announce a $12B assistance package for farmers. Crypto is a bright spot, having moved higher over the weekend. Bitcoin and ETH are up 1-2%, though Bitcoin is off it’s highs and dropped below $90k and its declining 20d ma ($91.9k).



In a light economic calendar today, Inflation expectations in the NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey were unchanged across the 1,3 and 5y time horizons (3-3.2%). The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased slightly to 13.8%, the lowest since December 2024. The median expected growth in household income rose slightly to 2.9%, in line with the 12m average, and median spending growth expectations ticked slightly higher as well. 

 
Earnings:

• After-Market: CMP, OOMA, PHR
• Pre-Market (Tues): ASO, AZO, CAL, CNM, CPB, DBI, FERG, KFY, LE, OLLI, SAIL, TOL, VNCE
• After-Market: AVAV, CASY, CBRL, GME, PLAY 

Economic Data:
US:

• 11:00am NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations:
  • 1y: 3.2%, unchanged
  • 3y: 3.0% unchanged
  • 5y: 3.0%, unchanged
• 1:00pm 3yr auction

Global:

• China Exports: 5.9% vs. 3.8% cons., prior -1.1%
• China Imports: 1.9% vs. 2.8% cons., prior 1%
• Japan Q3 GDP (final): -0.6% revised from -0.4%
• Germany Industrial Production: 1.8% vs. -0.4% cons., prior 1.1%