STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/13/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Last week there was a bit of a summer lull in between key economic data and ahead of the on-ramp to the Q2 Earnings Expressway starting tomorrow. However, geopolitics and AI-related headlines filled the void of scheduled catalysts driving some choppy trade. The S&P 500 traded in a reasonably tight range consolidating just over its 50d moving average ending the week modestly higher and within less than 1% from another ATH. Technology provided most of the gains with the NYSE 100 index closing the week up ~2.5%. However, most other major US indices ended the week with slight losses. Oil prices and yields ended moved higher as the ceasefire fell apart.
Futures are trading modestly lower amidst a weekend where the US and Iran continued to exchange fire and some conflicting headlines around the Strait. Oil prices are higher once again with ICE Brent retesting $80. Treasury yields also retested recent highs but are only up ~2bps. From a market perspective, the bigger story overnight was weakness in tech stocks in Asia, particularly memory companies in South Korea, though there wasn’t a clear headline catalyst. The Kospi falling 9% triggering its 7th market wide circuit breaker this year as SK Hynix fell ~15%, a day after its US ADR debut, while Samsung was also down ~10%. Tech stocks are under pressure in the pre-market - SMH down ~2% while DRAM is lower by ~9%. Taiwan Semi is bucking the weakness after providing a sales update, ahead of earnings on Thursday, highlighting strong AI demand with Q2 revenue up ~36% and June up nearly 70%.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report there is no economic data on the calendar. Fed Chair Warsh will also be testifying before Congress tomorrow but this afternoon we’ll hear from Fed Waller, an influential voice on the Committee, that has been getting progressively more hawkish recently. Treasury yields are up ~2bps across the curve. The USD index was higher overnight but pulled back as European markets opened.
Mixed overnight session with tech heavy indices in Asia under pressure however, European indices are hovering around unchanged. The Nikkei fell nearly 2%. The China Shanghai Composite was down a similar amount though the Hong Kong Hang Seng ended modestly higher helped by financials, energy stocks and communications stocks. European indices are mixed with tech weakness offset by strength in Utilities, energy and communication companies.
Oil prices had pulled back from the initial highs as European markets opened but have been moving higher again over the last couple of hours currently up ~4%. US nat gas is down ~1% though prices in Europe are on the move higher again after jumping >10% last week. Precious metals are under pressure though copper has reversed overnight losses and is trading modestly higher. Ag is mixed. Crytpo is under pressure with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down ~2%.
Pretty quiet on the corporate headline front but that will change tomorrow with earnings from the major banks (BAC, C, GS, JPM, WFC).
Economic Data:
US:
Last week there was a bit of a summer lull in between key economic data and ahead of the on-ramp to the Q2 Earnings Expressway starting tomorrow. However, geopolitics and AI-related headlines filled the void of scheduled catalysts driving some choppy trade. The S&P 500 traded in a reasonably tight range consolidating just over its 50d moving average ending the week modestly higher and within less than 1% from another ATH. Technology provided most of the gains with the NYSE 100 index closing the week up ~2.5%. However, most other major US indices ended the week with slight losses. Oil prices and yields ended moved higher as the ceasefire fell apart.
Futures are trading modestly lower amidst a weekend where the US and Iran continued to exchange fire and some conflicting headlines around the Strait. Oil prices are higher once again with ICE Brent retesting $80. Treasury yields also retested recent highs but are only up ~2bps. From a market perspective, the bigger story overnight was weakness in tech stocks in Asia, particularly memory companies in South Korea, though there wasn’t a clear headline catalyst. The Kospi falling 9% triggering its 7th market wide circuit breaker this year as SK Hynix fell ~15%, a day after its US ADR debut, while Samsung was also down ~10%. Tech stocks are under pressure in the pre-market - SMH down ~2% while DRAM is lower by ~9%. Taiwan Semi is bucking the weakness after providing a sales update, ahead of earnings on Thursday, highlighting strong AI demand with Q2 revenue up ~36% and June up nearly 70%.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report there is no economic data on the calendar. Fed Chair Warsh will also be testifying before Congress tomorrow but this afternoon we’ll hear from Fed Waller, an influential voice on the Committee, that has been getting progressively more hawkish recently. Treasury yields are up ~2bps across the curve. The USD index was higher overnight but pulled back as European markets opened.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.22%, 5yr +2bps to 4.32%, 10yr +2bps to 4.58%, 30yr +2bps to 5.08%
- USD index: -$0.06 to $100.70
Mixed overnight session with tech heavy indices in Asia under pressure however, European indices are hovering around unchanged. The Nikkei fell nearly 2%. The China Shanghai Composite was down a similar amount though the Hong Kong Hang Seng ended modestly higher helped by financials, energy stocks and communications stocks. European indices are mixed with tech weakness offset by strength in Utilities, energy and communication companies.
Oil prices had pulled back from the initial highs as European markets opened but have been moving higher again over the last couple of hours currently up ~4%. US nat gas is down ~1% though prices in Europe are on the move higher again after jumping >10% last week. Precious metals are under pressure though copper has reversed overnight losses and is trading modestly higher. Ag is mixed. Crytpo is under pressure with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down ~2%.
Pretty quiet on the corporate headline front but that will change tomorrow with earnings from the major banks (BAC, C, GS, JPM, WFC).
Economic Data:
US:
- 11:30 3/6mo T-Bill Auction
- 12:30 Fed Waller
- 2:00 Monthly Budget Statement
- India Trade Balance: $-30.4B vs.$-26.5B cons., prior -$28.2B
- India Inflation: 4.38% y/y vs. 4.3% cons., prior 3.93%
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