STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/4/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 54,187 (+1008), S&P 500 7,736 (+135), Russell 2000 3,034 (+52), NYSE FANG+ 18,526 (+774), ICE Brent Crude $79.24/barrel (-$4.53), Gold $4,158/oz (+$67), Bitcoin ~64.0k (+505)
- New All-Time Highs
- A deal on the horizon?
- Oil prices and yields lower
- Corporate America is humming
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 548: Rubrik's Cal Al-Dhubaib on Securing AI Agents Without Slowing Innovations
- ETF Central: Baron Capital Head of ETF Solutions Matt Camuso
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday felt like Ground Hog’s Day following another pause in kinetic activity with Iran over the weekend. Oil prices and yields pulled back which along with a strong ISM Manufacturing print helped to trigger a pretty broad-based equity rally. The S&P 500 was up 1.5% trading back up to 7,600 just below the early June all-time high. The hyperscalers led to the upside while neoclouds were also very strong. Nvidia masked some weakness early on within the semi complex while memory stocks recouped most of the early losses. The software sector also rallied with the IGV ETF up 3%, breaking above its 200d ma a level it’s been consistently below since the end of last year. Energy and defensive/yield-oriented sectors underperformed.
Futures extended yesterday’s gains ahead of the open with another strong round of earnings and building hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran. Oil prices reversed overnight gains after a spokesperson from Qatar’s foreign ministry said language had been drafted on a short-term Iran/US deal. Then during a CNBC interview Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested there could be a deal to reopen the Strait either today or tomorrow taking ICE Brent down to ~$80. Treasury yields also reversed a move higher overnight. The S&P 500 opened up about 0.4% just over the previous all-time high and has not looked back since, currently up nearly 2% easily breaking above 7,700. Tech is doing a lot of the heavy lifting with the NYSE 100 up 3.5% but the gains are broad based. Most major indices are up >1% either hitting or within a rounding error of new all-time highs.
Outside of the geopolitical headlines the primary topics are the positioning reset after last month’s momentum unwind and the continued earnings tailwind. According to FactSet with 70% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported to date Q2 EPS are up nearly 50% y/y. This is somewhat skewed by investment gains at some of the mega-cap tech companies but even if you remove the nearly ~$150B of portfolio gains at Amazon and Google the growth rate is still just under 30% y/y.
Within the S&P 500 6 of 11 sectors are higher with energy and the same mix of defensive sectors underperforming. There is another rotation within the tech complex. Hyperscalers are holding most of yesterday’s gains, but it is the Capex receivers that are outperforming today with both the semi/memory ETFs up >5%. This is not coming at the expense of the software sector which is extending the recent rally after strong earnings from Palantir which is up >20%. Ahead of today’s meeting with AI executives there are reports that the administration is considering import bans of China data center components including optical transceivers (GLW/CIEN/AAOI/LITE/COHR/FN/ALAB are all up between 5% - 20%).
Industrials are also benefitting from earnings and the AI capex spending. Caterpillar is a standout with a beat and raise quarter driven by strength in the construction segment but there was broad based end market demand. The construction segment revenues were up 35% y/y to $8.3B a little more than $1B ahead of estimates. For the year, the company raised sales guidance to mid-to-high teens from low double digits. Margins came in well ahead of estimates helped by tariff refunds. Outside of the data center capex beneficiaries airlines and building products companies are some of the best performing.
Rounding out the gainers are materials and financials. The latter is being driven by strength in the money center banks while insurance and exchanges are under pressure.
Consumer discretionary is one of the worst performing sectors. However, ex-Amazon (-2% Bezos filed to sell $4B) the sector would be higher. The pullback in yields is helping the housing related stocks. Wayfair is surging >25% after a top and bottom line beat driven by strength in the US market. Autos/parts companies are underperforming Aptiv is selling off after disappointing guidance highlighting weak China demand. Apparel stocks are weak after a Nike downgrade while hotels are still under pressure.
The only economic data in the pre-market was trade balance which was about in line with estimates. After the open JOLTS Job Openings came in a touch light while last month was also revised lower. Factory orders also missed estimates. Ahead of the open Philly Fed President Paulson (voting member) had some dovish comments in a CNBC interview saying it wasn’t a close call for her last week. She highlighted the current complicated backdrop to set monetary policy but suggested rates are modestly restrictive. Treasury yields were slightly higher overnight, moved lower along with oil prices this morning and ticked down slightly during her interview and have held steady throughout the session down ~5bps across the curve.
- US 2yr -4bps to 4.20%, 5yr -5bps to 4.34%, 10yr -5bps to 4.63%, 30yr -4bps to 5.19%
- USD index: +$0.02 to $99.80
It was a mixed but less volatile night overnight session in Asia. South Korea bounced modestly overnight after memory stocks recouped early losses amidst more concerns about competition from CXMT after the Nikkei reported multiple PC OEMs using their memory (should be in for a good night tonight). Inflation data came in better than expected. In Japan equities ended slightly higher. The Yen gave back some of the recent rally overnight but did rally after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the “US will do whatever it takes to support the yen” currently ~157.60. Local yields moved higher following a weak 10yr auction. Tech stocks were mixed; financials were mostly lower while manufacturing stocks rallied. Toyota pulled back after mixed results. The Hang Seng ended modestly lower with financials and energy stocks leading to the downside while the Shanghai Composite bounced modestly. Most European indices hit new highs up just under 1%. Tech, industrials and miners are some of the best performing stocks.
Oil prices are down ~5%. Natural gas prices in both the US and Europe are also moving lower. Ag is also moving lower. Metals have been rallying throughout the session. Gold is up ~1.5% at $4,150 but other precious metals are sharply higher. Copper is up ~1.5% trading just under YTD highs ahead of potential tariffs. Crypto is a touch higher tempered by the Clarity Act overhang.
Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow earnings and Iran negotiations will remain in focus. Some of the key reports include AMD, Uber, Disney and SpaceX. The economic data includes ADP Employment and ISM services.
Earnings:
After-Market: ACEL, AFG, AIZ, ALAB, ALIT, AMD, AMGN, AMWL, ANET, ANGX, ARDT, AROC, BBBY, BIO, BKNG, BV, BXC, CALY, CC, CE, CHCT, COMP.EQ, CPNG, CRBG, DBRG, DEI, DOC, DVA, DVN, ECG, ECO, EMR, EOG, EQH, EVTC, FBIN, FOA, FTK, GIC, GILD, GXO, HL, HNGE, HY, IFF, IPI, ITUB, J, JAN, JBGS, JXN, KAI, KODK, LDI, LRN, LACC, LUMN, MAC, MBC, MEC, MNTN, MOS, NGL, NVGS, NXDR, OGS, PACS, PARR, PINS, PRIM, PRU, PSTL, RBA, RVLV, RYAM, SGHC, SKT, SKY, SPCX, TALO, TBI, TDC, TOST, TSLX, TX, UP, USNA, VOYA, VTOL, WK, WTRG, WTTR, ZETA
Pre-Market: ADNT, AMPX, BWA, BCO, BAM, CDW, CPRI, CG, COR, CRL, CIM, CHH, CRCL, YOU, LAW, CWK, CVS, DKL, DK, DIN, DIS, LPG, DT, ECVT, EPC, ELAN, FLUT, FUBO, Glencore, GLXY, GPN, GFF, GFS, HGTY, HLLY, HPP, Infineon, IRM, KMT, KD, LCII, LLY, LPX, MTRN, MFA, NRP, NATL, NYT, NI, NWN, OC, PSBD, PRGO, PSX, PRMB, RRX, RPC, SHAK, Siemens Energy, SHOP, SN, SMRT, SWX, SR, TRIN, UBER, UTZ, VVV, VSH, VPG, VYX, ZBH
After-Market: ACA, AGBK, AGL, AKA, ALB, ALL, APLE, ATEN, ATO, AWR, AXIA, BBDC, BGSF, BHR, BKH, BROS, CACI, CAPL, CDE, CDRE, CF, CMP, COOK, CPA, CPAY, CPS, CSV, CW, CWEN, CXT, CXW, DASH, DHT, DHX, DLX, EBS, EE, EHC, ELF, ETSY, EXPE, FG, FIG, FNF, GNK, GNL, GNW, GPMT, HBB, HCC, HHH, HLF, HMN, HP, HRTG, HUBS, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KMPR, KNTK, KRO, KVYO, LB, LEU, LTC, MATV, MCK, MET, MGY, MIAX, MLR, MSI, MTDR, MUR, MUSA, MWA, NC, NEXA, NL, NVST, O, OBDC, OEC, ONT, ORA, OTF, OUT, OXY, PAYC, PRI, PRSU, QGEN, RAMP, RCUS, RDN, RDW, RIG, RYN, SEG, SEI, SGU, SM, SMA, SMR, SNDK, SOLV, SRI, SST, STE, TNC, TPC, TPL, TPVG, TROX, TS, UGI, UHAL, UMH, USPH, UTI, UVV, VAL, VEL, WBI, WDC, WES, WTI, WTS, XPER, XRN, XYZ, ZIP, ZVIA
Economic Data:
US:
- Trade Balance: vs. -$73B cons., prior -$77.1B
- JOLTS Job Openings: 7.359ml vs. 7.4ml cons., prior revised to 7.537 from 7.594ml
- Factory Orders: -0.3% vs. 0.2% cons., prior -1.3%
Global:
- South Korea Inflation: -0.2%/2.8% m.m/y.y vs. 0.1%/3% cons., prior 0.1%/3.2%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/4/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday felt like Ground Hog’s Day following another pause in kinetic activity with Iran over the weekend. Oil prices and yields pulled back which along with a strong ISM Manufacturing print helped to trigger a pretty broad-based equity rally. The S&P 500 was up 1.5% trading back up to 7,600 just below the early June all-time high. The hyperscalers led to the upside while neoclouds were also very strong. Nvidia masked some weakness early on within the semi complex while memory stocks recouped most of the early losses. The software sector was also very strong with the IGV ETF breaking above its 200d a level it’s been consistently below since the end of last year. Energy and defensive/yield-oriented sectors underperformed.
Futures are pointing to a higher open amidst strong earnings and building hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran. Oil prices reversed overnight gains after a spokesperson from Qatar’s foreign ministry said language had been drafted on a short-term Iran/US deal. Prices extended lower after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested there could be a deal to reopen the Strait either today or tomorrow. The reactionary low in ICE Brent was just over $80 prices have bounced modestly currently down nearly 3% at $81.5. Treasury yields have reversed overnight gains now down ~2bps across the curve. The strong earnings have continued over the last 24 hours. Caterpillar is trading up >10%, which is helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1%). It was a beat and raise quarter for the company with the construction segment the standout. Segment revenues were up 35% y/y to $8.3B a little more than $1B ahead of estimates. For the year, the company raised sales guidance to mid-to-high teens from low double digits. Margins came in well ahead of estimates helped by tariff refunds. S&P futures are at overnight highs up ~0.35% which would put the cash index at a new ATH. Dow futures are up >1% also hitting new highs.
There is another rotation within the tech complex. Hyperscalers are giving back some of yesterday’s gains while the Capex receivers are moving higher in the pre-market (SMH/DRAM both up >3%). Ahead of today’s meeting with AI executives there are reports that the administration is considering import bans of China data center components including optical transceivers (GLW/CIEN/AAOI/LITE/COHR/FN/ALAB up between 5% - 20%). Palantir is up >10% following its earnings but software stocks are mostly lower in the pre-market. There is also a report that Anthropic signed a $10B compute deal with Nvidia backed Volta.
The only economic data in the pre-market was trade balance which was about in line with estimates. After the open JOLTS Job Openings and factory orders will be released. Philly Fed President Paulson (voting member) had some dovish comments in a CNBC interview saying it wasn’t a close call for her last week. She highlighted the current complicated backdrop to set monetary policy but suggested rates are modestly restrictive. Treasury yields were slightly higher overnight, moved lower along with oil prices this morning and ticked down slightly during her interview.
A mixed but less volatile night overnight in Asia while European markets are extending yesterday’s gains with most major indices hitting new YTD highs. South Korea bounced modestly overnight after memory stocks recouped early losses amidst more concerns about competition from CXMT after the Nikkei reported multiple PC OEMs using their memory. Inflation data came in better than expected. In Japan equities ended slightly higher. The Yen gave back some of the recent rally overnight but has started to rally again after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the “US will do whatever it takes to support the yen” currently ~157.50. Local yields moved higher following a weak 10yr auction. Tech stocks were mixed; financials were mostly lower while manufacturing stocks rallied. Toyota pulled back after mixed results. The Hang Seng ended modestly lower with financials and energy stocks leading to the downside while the Shanghai Composite bounced modestly. European indices have been extending gains throughout the session with the positive Iran headlines. Tech, industrials and miners are some of the best performing stocks.
Oil prices are down >2%. US natural gas is also moving lower though prices in Europe are hovering around unchanged. Metals have been moving higher throughout the open. Gold is up ~1% but other precious metals are sharply higher. Copper is up nearly 2% trading just under YTD highs ahead of potential tariffs. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto is a touch higher with Bitcoin trading just under 64k while Ethereum is just under 1,900.
Earnings:
After-Market: AHRT, ALG, ARE, ALSN, AMRC, AESI, BSM, BCC, BRCC, BWXT, CBT, CSR, CLX, CRD.B, CRGY, CTOS, DAC, EC, GPOR, IBTA, IRT, IIPR, INVX, INSP, IVT, JBTM, JELD, MATX, MED, MTUS, NJR, OKE, ON, OPAD, PAY, PGR, PLTR, POWL, SBAC, SNAP, TTI, TDW, TKO, TGS, UTL, VVX, VTS, VNO, VOYG, WHR, WMB
Pre-Market: ACRE, ADM, AIN, AME, AOMR, APO, APTV, ATKR, BALL, BOW, BR, BRBR, BRSL, BXDC, CAT, CLDT, CMI, CTRI, DD, DOCN, DUK, ENR, ET, EVEX, EXPD, FIS, HSBC, GPK, GWW, HVT, INGR, IT, KIM, KNF, LDOS, MCD, MD, MPC, MPLX, MRK, MRP, NPO, NRG, NXRT, OPLN, PEG, PFE, PNW, PRKS, Q, ROK, RVTY, SMP, SPOT, SQNS, STVN, SUN, SYY, TDG, TKR, TPB, TREX, ULS, USAC, W, WAT, WLK, WLKP
After-Market: ACEL, AFG, AIZ, ALAB, ALIT, AMD, AMGN, AMWL, ANET, ANGX, ARDT, AROC, BBBY, BIO, BKNG, BV, BXC, CALY, CC, CE, CHCT, COMP.EQ, CPNG, CRBG, DBRG, DEI, DOC, DVA, DVN, ECG, ECO, EMR, EOG, EQH, EVTC, FBIN, FOA, FTK, GIC, GILD, GXO, HL, HNGE, HY, IFF, IPI, ITUB, J, JAN, JBGS, JXN, KAI, KODK, LDI, LRN, LACC, LUMN, MAC, MBC, MEC, MNTN, MOS, NGL, NVGS, NXDR, OGS, PACS, PARR, PINS, PRIM, PRU, PSTL, RBA, RVLV, RYAM, SGHC, SKT, SKY, SPCX, TALO, TBI, TDC, TOST, TSLX, TX, UP, USNA, VOYA, VTOL, WK, WTRG, WTTR, ZETA
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday felt like Ground Hog’s Day following another pause in kinetic activity with Iran over the weekend. Oil prices and yields pulled back which along with a strong ISM Manufacturing print helped to trigger a pretty broad-based equity rally. The S&P 500 was up 1.5% trading back up to 7,600 just below the early June all-time high. The hyperscalers led to the upside while neoclouds were also very strong. Nvidia masked some weakness early on within the semi complex while memory stocks recouped most of the early losses. The software sector was also very strong with the IGV ETF breaking above its 200d a level it’s been consistently below since the end of last year. Energy and defensive/yield-oriented sectors underperformed.
Futures are pointing to a higher open amidst strong earnings and building hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran. Oil prices reversed overnight gains after a spokesperson from Qatar’s foreign ministry said language had been drafted on a short-term Iran/US deal. Prices extended lower after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested there could be a deal to reopen the Strait either today or tomorrow. The reactionary low in ICE Brent was just over $80 prices have bounced modestly currently down nearly 3% at $81.5. Treasury yields have reversed overnight gains now down ~2bps across the curve. The strong earnings have continued over the last 24 hours. Caterpillar is trading up >10%, which is helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1%). It was a beat and raise quarter for the company with the construction segment the standout. Segment revenues were up 35% y/y to $8.3B a little more than $1B ahead of estimates. For the year, the company raised sales guidance to mid-to-high teens from low double digits. Margins came in well ahead of estimates helped by tariff refunds. S&P futures are at overnight highs up ~0.35% which would put the cash index at a new ATH. Dow futures are up >1% also hitting new highs.
There is another rotation within the tech complex. Hyperscalers are giving back some of yesterday’s gains while the Capex receivers are moving higher in the pre-market (SMH/DRAM both up >3%). Ahead of today’s meeting with AI executives there are reports that the administration is considering import bans of China data center components including optical transceivers (GLW/CIEN/AAOI/LITE/COHR/FN/ALAB up between 5% - 20%). Palantir is up >10% following its earnings but software stocks are mostly lower in the pre-market. There is also a report that Anthropic signed a $10B compute deal with Nvidia backed Volta.
The only economic data in the pre-market was trade balance which was about in line with estimates. After the open JOLTS Job Openings and factory orders will be released. Philly Fed President Paulson (voting member) had some dovish comments in a CNBC interview saying it wasn’t a close call for her last week. She highlighted the current complicated backdrop to set monetary policy but suggested rates are modestly restrictive. Treasury yields were slightly higher overnight, moved lower along with oil prices this morning and ticked down slightly during her interview.
- US 2yr -2bps to 4.22%, 5yr -2bps to 4.37%, 10yr -1bps to 4.67%, 30yr -1bps to 5.22%
- USD index: +$0.07 to $99.86
A mixed but less volatile night overnight in Asia while European markets are extending yesterday’s gains with most major indices hitting new YTD highs. South Korea bounced modestly overnight after memory stocks recouped early losses amidst more concerns about competition from CXMT after the Nikkei reported multiple PC OEMs using their memory. Inflation data came in better than expected. In Japan equities ended slightly higher. The Yen gave back some of the recent rally overnight but has started to rally again after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the “US will do whatever it takes to support the yen” currently ~157.50. Local yields moved higher following a weak 10yr auction. Tech stocks were mixed; financials were mostly lower while manufacturing stocks rallied. Toyota pulled back after mixed results. The Hang Seng ended modestly lower with financials and energy stocks leading to the downside while the Shanghai Composite bounced modestly. European indices have been extending gains throughout the session with the positive Iran headlines. Tech, industrials and miners are some of the best performing stocks.
Oil prices are down >2%. US natural gas is also moving lower though prices in Europe are hovering around unchanged. Metals have been moving higher throughout the open. Gold is up ~1% but other precious metals are sharply higher. Copper is up nearly 2% trading just under YTD highs ahead of potential tariffs. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto is a touch higher with Bitcoin trading just under 64k while Ethereum is just under 1,900.
Earnings:
After-Market: AHRT, ALG, ARE, ALSN, AMRC, AESI, BSM, BCC, BRCC, BWXT, CBT, CSR, CLX, CRD.B, CRGY, CTOS, DAC, EC, GPOR, IBTA, IRT, IIPR, INVX, INSP, IVT, JBTM, JELD, MATX, MED, MTUS, NJR, OKE, ON, OPAD, PAY, PGR, PLTR, POWL, SBAC, SNAP, TTI, TDW, TKO, TGS, UTL, VVX, VTS, VNO, VOYG, WHR, WMB
Pre-Market: ACRE, ADM, AIN, AME, AOMR, APO, APTV, ATKR, BALL, BOW, BR, BRBR, BRSL, BXDC, CAT, CLDT, CMI, CTRI, DD, DOCN, DUK, ENR, ET, EVEX, EXPD, FIS, HSBC, GPK, GWW, HVT, INGR, IT, KIM, KNF, LDOS, MCD, MD, MPC, MPLX, MRK, MRP, NPO, NRG, NXRT, OPLN, PEG, PFE, PNW, PRKS, Q, ROK, RVTY, SMP, SPOT, SQNS, STVN, SUN, SYY, TDG, TKR, TPB, TREX, ULS, USAC, W, WAT, WLK, WLKP
After-Market: ACEL, AFG, AIZ, ALAB, ALIT, AMD, AMGN, AMWL, ANET, ANGX, ARDT, AROC, BBBY, BIO, BKNG, BV, BXC, CALY, CC, CE, CHCT, COMP.EQ, CPNG, CRBG, DBRG, DEI, DOC, DVA, DVN, ECG, ECO, EMR, EOG, EQH, EVTC, FBIN, FOA, FTK, GIC, GILD, GXO, HL, HNGE, HY, IFF, IPI, ITUB, J, JAN, JBGS, JXN, KAI, KODK, LDI, LRN, LACC, LUMN, MAC, MBC, MEC, MNTN, MOS, NGL, NVGS, NXDR, OGS, PACS, PARR, PINS, PRIM, PRU, PSTL, RBA, RVLV, RYAM, SGHC, SKT, SKY, SPCX, TALO, TBI, TDC, TOST, TSLX, TX, UP, USNA, VOYA, VTOL, WK, WTRG, WTTR, ZETA
Economic Data:
US:
- Trade Balance: vs. -$73B cons., prior -$77.1B
- 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings: vs. 7.4ml cons., prior 7.594ml
- 10:00 Factory Orders: vs. 0.2% cons., prior -1.3%
- South Korea Inflation: -0.2%/2.8% m.m/y.y vs. 0.1%/3% cons., prior 0.1%/3.2%
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