STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/04/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 49,074 (-425), S&P 500 7,210 (-20), Russell 2000 2,797 (-16), NYSE FANG+ 8,356 (+20), ICE Brent Crude $113.63/barrel (+$5.46), Gold $4,533/oz (-$112), Bitcoin ~80.4k (+2149)
- May the Fourth Be With You
- Middle East Escalations
- Stocks lower; Oil, yields rising
- Earnings, econ data continue to be solid
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- X Las Vegas: Former Acting U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Peter O'Rourke
- ETF Central: : Red Panda Founder & CEO Ian Dunlap
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Last week the S&P 500 set new record highs and extended its winning streak to five straight weeks. This was despite oil and yields also moving higher. It was a busy week of economic data, central bank rate decisions, Iran headlines and earnings. The latter have been very strong, particularly for companies that are exposed to the AI capex boom. According to FactSet, 84% of S&P 500 companies have beat EPS estimates and 81% beat revenues, both above their 5 and 10-year averages. That helped the S&P rise to a new record, like Yoda lifting Luke’s X-wing fighter out of the swamp on Dagobah.
Equities may have reached new heights but today they haven’t made the jump to hyperspace. Over the weekend President Trump announced Project Freedom, his version of the Kessel Run, and an effort to help guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, though it stops short of providing naval warship escorts for each ship. Before the open the U.A.E. said an Adnoc (Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company) vessel was hit by Iranian drones in the Strait. Then came news that the U.A.E. air defense systems were responding to a missile attack, followed by news of a fire at a petroleum site. "We reserve the right to a full and legitimate response to attacks," the U.A.E. foreign ministry said.
Equities opened flat to slightly lower, saw a bit of positive momentum but then fell on the UAE strikes. The S&P 500 is currently down ~0.3%, off its lows of around -0.8%. The equal-weight and Russell 2000 are underperforming. Right now it doesn’t feel like the market has a stretch run in it today. Definitely not like what we saw from Golden Tempo at the Kentucky Derby this weekend. What…a…run…
All sectors are lower outside of Energy on oil’s move. Discretionary and Tech are outperforming, though it’s basically Amazon and Tesla keeping Discretionary afloat. Travel and Leisure are under pressure as well as retailers. For tech, software is seeing relative strength at the expense of semis. AMD reports tomorrow after the close. Materials is the underperformer, down over 1% with energy higher.
It will be another busy week of earnings but today was relatively calm. Some select highlights below:
- Berkshire -1% (earnings) - Berkshire held is Annual Shareholders Meeting extravaganza (along with Q1 earnings) on Saturday. It was Greg Abel’s first time leading the annual meeting after taking over for GOAT Warren Buffet. Results were generally solid across business lines. The company continued to hoard cash with its pile reaching nearly $400B or just under 40% of its market cap. The company continued to trim its equity portfolio selling $8.15B (portfolio value $288B). There was some disappointment that the co. only bought back ~$235ml in stock.
- Norwegian Cruise Lines -9% (earnings, macro) - Beat for the quarter but cut guidance. “The Company is experiencing headwinds related to disruptions in the Middle East, including higher fuel expense and signs of softer demand as consumers reevaluate travel plans, particularly to Europe”. Cruise line peers CCL and RCL are down 3-4%.
- Amazon +1% - announced it is launching Amazon Supply Chain Services extending logistical services to businesses of all types and sizes which is weighing on FDX/UPS/GXO down ~10%.
- Gamestop (-8%) made an unsolicited offer to buy the much larger eBay (+>5%) for ~$56B in cash and stock
- Hubbell (+1%) to buy NSI Industries for $3B from Sentinel Cap
- GBTG being bought for ~$6.3B (9.50/sh) by Long Lake Mgmt.
The steady stream of Iran news over the past 24 hours has sent Brentup 6% and breaking through $115 before coming back a bit. Natural gas is up 3% in the US and 7% in Europe. Precious metals continue to come under pressure while oil, rates and the Dollar all move higher. Gold failed to hold its 100d ma last week. Copper is continuing to pull back from recent highs ~$6.15 and is testing both its 50 and 100d ma ~$5.75. Ag is mostly higher with the exception of wheat which is continuing to pull back from its recent highs. Bitcoin is up ~3% and regained $80k. Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act which was backed by Circle (up >15%) and Coinbase (+7%).
It’s a light day on the economic calendar. Factory Orders came in above estimates and continued the generally solid string of economic data. Yields have been climbing throughout the day on the new Iran hostilities. The 30y cleared 5.0% and rates are up 7-10bp across the curve. The USD index is moving higher along with yields, breaking back above 98 and at its 200d ma. There was another spike in the Yen overnight that sparked speculation of another round of intervention. It traded down to ~155.50¥/$ but then weakened and reversed back to ~157¥/$.
- US 2yr +8bps to 3.97%, 5yr +8bps to 4.10%, 10yr +7bps to 4.45%, 30yr +6bps to 5.02%
- USD index: +$0.33 to $98.33
In an appearance this afternoon NY Fed President Williams said he feels monetary policy is well-balanced. He expects inflation to return to target (2%) in 2027, with inflation outside of imported goods and energy remaining stable and no significant second-round effects from tariffs. He didn't comment on the rising dissention on the FOMC, at least not that we saw. The Senior Loan Officer survey and Treasury refunding estimate will come out later this afternoon.
Japan, China and the UK were closed for holiday. South Korea re-opened after being closed Friday, rising 5% and hitting new all-time highs. A senior Bank of Korea official said the central bank should consider a rate hike. The Hang Seng also ended up >1%. Most European indices pulled back as the Iran news turned negative. Autos were under pressure after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU cars.
Let's Go Knicks!
Earnings:
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Pre-Market (Tues): AEP, ADM, BALL, CMI, DOCN, DRS, DUK, DD, ETN, ENR, FISV, GFS, GPK, HII, HOG, HSIC, IT, IQV, KBR, LDOS, MPC, PFE, PYPL, RACE, ROK, RVTY, SHOP, STNG, TDG, ULS, VAC, WAT, WEC, WLK
After Market (Tues): AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Economic Data:
US:
- Factory Orders (March): 1.5% vs 0.5% cons, prior 0.3%
- ex-Transportation: 1.6% vs prior 1.6%
- Total Vehicle Sales (April): 15.9M vs 16.0M cons, prior 16.3M
- 2:00 Loan Officer survey
- 3:00 Treasury Refunding Estimate
Global:
- India Manufacturing PMI (final): 54.7 prior 55.9
- EU Manufacturing PMI (final): 52.2 prior 52.2
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 5/4/2026 (a/o 9:15am)
May the Fourth be with you,
Last week US equities markets extended the weekly winning streak to four, despite the increase in oil prices and yields. It was a busy week of economic data, central bank rate decisions, Iran headlines and earnings. The latter have been very strong, particularly for companies that are exposed to the AI capex boom which has helped to propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs over the last month rivaling the Millenium Falcon’s hyperdrive.
There has been some Iran related volatility this morning. Yesterday, President Trump announced Project Freedom, to guide stranded ships out of the SOH. Less than 24 hours later ~6:00 am there was a report that a US naval ship had been struck by Iranian missiles sending oil prices higher and equity futures lower. However, about an hour later that was refuted and markets have reversed a good portion of that initial move. CENTCOM has since stated that 2 U.S. flagged merchant vessels have successfully moved through the Strait. It has been a volatile overnight session in oil with ICE Brent up ~2% holding ~110 (Range 105.55 - 114.30). S&P futures were down ~0.5% at the lows but are now only slightly lower. Russell futures are underperforming slightly. There is some outperformance in tech stocks in the pre-market particularly memory names.
It will be a busy week of earnings but starting the week of slowly. Below are some corporate highlights:
Yields are moving higher by a couple of bps this morning. After the open factory orders will be released. This afternoon the loan officer survey will be released and the Treasury refunding estimate comes out at 3:00. This afternoon NY Fed President Williams will be speaking as well. The USD index is modestly higher. There was another spike in the Yen around midnight sparking speculation of another round of intervention. It traded down to ~155.50¥/$ again but has since reversed currently ~157¥/$.
Government Yields
Japan, China and the UK were closed for holiday. South Korea re-opened after being closed hitting new all-time highs up ~5%. A senior Bank of Korea official said the central bank should consider a rate hike. The Hang Seng also ended up >1%. Most European indices are pulling back modestly with autos under some pressure after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU imported autos. Financials are also under some pressure.
Moving to commodities energy prices are moving higher again as documented above. Metals are under some pressure extended last week’s losses. Gold is down >1% but has recouped about half of the overnight losses after retesting last week’s low. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving higher after Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act which was backed by Circle (+6% and Coinbase (+3.5%). Bitcoin was testing 80k overnight but pulled back with the Iran related volatility.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CCOI, CNA, L, NCLH, PNW, TSN
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Economic Data:
US:
Last week US equities markets extended the weekly winning streak to four, despite the increase in oil prices and yields. It was a busy week of economic data, central bank rate decisions, Iran headlines and earnings. The latter have been very strong, particularly for companies that are exposed to the AI capex boom which has helped to propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs over the last month rivaling the Millenium Falcon’s hyperdrive.
There has been some Iran related volatility this morning. Yesterday, President Trump announced Project Freedom, to guide stranded ships out of the SOH. Less than 24 hours later ~6:00 am there was a report that a US naval ship had been struck by Iranian missiles sending oil prices higher and equity futures lower. However, about an hour later that was refuted and markets have reversed a good portion of that initial move. CENTCOM has since stated that 2 U.S. flagged merchant vessels have successfully moved through the Strait. It has been a volatile overnight session in oil with ICE Brent up ~2% holding ~110 (Range 105.55 - 114.30). S&P futures were down ~0.5% at the lows but are now only slightly lower. Russell futures are underperforming slightly. There is some outperformance in tech stocks in the pre-market particularly memory names.
It will be a busy week of earnings but starting the week of slowly. Below are some corporate highlights:
- Berkshire +0.5% (earnings) - It was Greg Abel’s first time leading the annual meeting. Results were generally solid across business lines. The company continued to hoard cash reaching nearly $400B just under 40% of mkt cap. The company continued to trim its equity portfolio selling $8.15B (portfolio value $288B). There was some disappointment that the co. only bought back ~$235ml in stock.
- Norwegian Cruise Lines (earnings >-5%) - beat for the quarter but cut guidance saying, “The Company is experiencing headwinds related to disruptions in the Middle East, including higher fuel expense and signs of softer demand as consumers reevaluate travel plans, particularly to Europe”.
- Amazon - announced it is launching Amazon Supply Chain Services extending logistical services to businesses of all types and sizes which is weighing on FDX/UPS/GXO.
- Gamestop (-5%) made an unsolicited offer to buy the much larger eBay (+>5%) for ~$56B in cash and stock
- Hubbell to buy NSI Industries for $3B from Sentinel Cap
- GBTG being bought for ~$6.3B (9.50/sh) by Long Lake Mgmt.
Yields are moving higher by a couple of bps this morning. After the open factory orders will be released. This afternoon the loan officer survey will be released and the Treasury refunding estimate comes out at 3:00. This afternoon NY Fed President Williams will be speaking as well. The USD index is modestly higher. There was another spike in the Yen around midnight sparking speculation of another round of intervention. It traded down to ~155.50¥/$ again but has since reversed currently ~157¥/$.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +2bps to 3.87%, 5yr +2bps to 4.01%, 10yr +2bps to 4.37%, 30yr +1bps to 4.95%
- USD index: +$0.11 to $98.59
Japan, China and the UK were closed for holiday. South Korea re-opened after being closed hitting new all-time highs up ~5%. A senior Bank of Korea official said the central bank should consider a rate hike. The Hang Seng also ended up >1%. Most European indices are pulling back modestly with autos under some pressure after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU imported autos. Financials are also under some pressure.
Moving to commodities energy prices are moving higher again as documented above. Metals are under some pressure extended last week’s losses. Gold is down >1% but has recouped about half of the overnight losses after retesting last week’s low. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving higher after Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act which was backed by Circle (+6% and Coinbase (+3.5%). Bitcoin was testing 80k overnight but pulled back with the Iran related volatility.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CCOI, CNA, L, NCLH, PNW, TSN
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00 Factory Orders
- 2:00 Loan Officer survey
- 3:00 Treasury Refunding Estimate
- India Manufacturing PMI (final): 54.7 prior 55.9
- EU Manufacturing PMI (final): 52.2 prior 52.2
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