STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 10/27/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 52,326 (-36), S&P 500 7,717 (+41), Russell 2000 2,813 (+26), NYSE FANG+ 18,458 (+167), ICE Brent Crude $113.88/barrel (-$1.93), Gold $4,073/oz (+$35), Bitcoin ~80.5k (+476)
MAC Desk Commentary:
One week until Election Day and the 33rd sports equinox has come and gone. After a decisive victory last night the Brewers are one win away from their first ever World Series victory. Speaking of recently broken and current droughts, hopefully the Knicks can get off the schneid today, now that the team isn’t weighed down by the Rangers anymore after today’s spinoff (analysis coming from a Islanders fan). Segueing back to financial markets, AI funding news painted the tape yesterday helping the AI complex bounce after a couple of tough weeks. META announced a $95B capital raise while SpaceX completed a $40B raise, though Elon’s “guppy” quote stole some of the thunder. Anthropic’s S-1 officially dropped as well, keeping the Thanksgiving timeframe for an IPO on track. It didn’t stop there, after the close AVGO, BAC, BX, C and MS announced a $63B financing plan to support Anthropic’s leasing of Broadcom AI chips. The package was part of a previously announced agreement. In more tech news, MSFT offered buyouts to 60K employees, about 25% of its workforce. There was also a big deal announced in the Energy patch as EQT plans to acquire Range Resources for ~$13B. The other big story was the Brazil waxing after Lula’s surprise election win sent local markets down >10%.

As investors await the big catalysts coming over the next couple of days major US indices are modestly higher. It was a very busy twenty-four hours of earnings but none that have really changed the overarching narrative. After Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials held talks with Iran yesterday its Supreme Leader called for meeting conditions to end the war. Oil prices are taking the comments with a grain of salt pulling back modestly. The S&P 500 is near session highs up ~0.5% as there is some tech follow through ahead of the critical tech earnings in the coming days (Tues - SKHY Wed - GOOGL, MSFT, NOW, Samsung Thurs - AMZN, INTC). The equal weight version of the index is around unchanged as some of the recent defensive leadership pulls back. The Russell 2k is outperforming as the speculative thematic favorites that have been under unrelenting pressure for the past two months bounce including: space, quantum, nuclear, rare earths and robotics. 
Within the S&P 500 6 of 11 sectors are higher. Info tech is doing much of the heavy lifting up ~1.5% with strength in chips, memory and hardware while software pulls back. Consumer discretionary is also up >1% though most of the components are lower. Amazon and Tesla doing much of the heavy lifting while . Cruise operators are also up after Royal Caribbean highlighted strong demand and 2027 bookings trends. Comm services rounds out the mega-cap tech triumvirate up a little over 0.5%. Materials are outperforming helped by strength in steel stocks after Nucor r management highlighted broad based demand across end markets. Miners are also moving higher while packaging companies are under some pressure. Industrials are modestly higher with a lot of earnings-related cross currents: Pos - PNR, JCI, HRI helping machinery stocks - Neg - XYL, BA, PCAR, HUBB. Elsewhere within the sector the AI infrastructure and airlines are trading higher. The defensive sectors that have been leading recently are on the move lower including energy, consumer staples and healthcare. REITs, ex-data centers, are mostly lower with Health Care REITs the worst performing after the Welltower earnings, though the results looked solid. 
Ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting, Treasury yields are around unchanged. The US Dollar Index is climbing again, back up to 102. Durable Goods orders came in better than expected, though core capital goods (non-defense, ex-transportation) missed estimates, slowing from last month. The ADP Weekly Employment change ticked down slightly. September new home sales ticked down slightly from the prior month as mortgage rates jumped. Sales are down 5.3% on a YoY basis.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading bounced back modestly after recent declines with a modest improvement in business conditions and less pessimism related to labor markets conditions and inflation expectations.

  • US 2yr +2bps to 4.74%, 5yr +1bps to 4.84%, 10yr +0bps to 4.99%, 30yr -0bps to 5.30%
  • USD index: +$0.33 to $102.13
Brent crude is modestly lower on the back of the latest Iran peace hopes. US nat is up 3% recouping yesterday’s selloff while European gas pulls back modestly.  Gold, silver and copper are moving higher.  Ag is mostly lower, following through on yesterday’s Brazil-triggered weakness, though soy is bouncing. Crypto is bouncing modestly along with some of the other more speculative assets. 
The Nikkei and Kospi bounced back from Monday’s losses as tech firmed up. Chinese stocks slid on the mainland and Hong Kong. Industrial profits YTD declined from last month. European indices ended modestly higher with mining/resources and Tech leading. Energy and consumer goods lagged. France’s consumer confidence hit a 13 year low. The London Times reported that the UK is talking with the EU about closer ties between the two, a topic that had been making the rounds earlier. The ECB’s Q3 lending survey showed overall business loan demand fell, though banks saw a gradual, sustained increase in AI-related demand. 
The focus tomorrow will be on earnings and the Fed rate decision.

Earnings:
After-Market: ACGL, APAM, BKR, BXP, CAKE, CHE, CR, CSGP, CZR, ENPH, EQT, ESS, EXLS, EXR, FE, FFIV, HIW, HOOD, ICLR, LOGI, LSTR, MANH, MCRI, NOV, NXPI, OI, OKE, PPG, RNR, RRC, RUSHA, SKHY, ST, STAG, STX, TER, TRMK, UCTT, UHS, V, VTR, WERN, WM, WPC
Pre-Market: ADP, AON, APH, AVTR, BASF, BIIB, BLKB, BSX, CHEF, CHRW, CLH, DAN, DB, DBD, DINO, EAT, ETSY, EXTR, FELE, FLEX, FTV, GEHC, GEV, GNRC, GPI, GRMN,  GSK, HAYW, IEX, IP, JLL, KEX, LFUS, LH, LII, MAS, Mercedes Benz, NI, ODFL, OTIS, PAG, PB, PRG, PSN, PSX, SAN, STLA, TEL, TEX, UE, UBS, UL, VFC, VRT, WING
After-Market: ALGN, AWK, BHE, CHDN, CMG, COHU, CVNA, EBAY, EG, EHC, EIG, EPR, EQIX, F, FDX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, GEN, GKOS, GNW, GOOGL, HONA, INVH, KLAC, MAA, MGM, MSFT, MTH, MUSA, NOW, NXT, OLED, ORLY, PBI, PI, PLXS, PPC, QTWO, RJF, Samsung Electronics, SFM, TENB, THG, TMUS, TYL, VICI

Economic Data:
US:
  • Building permits (final): 1.398M vs 1.4M cons, prior 1.403M
  • ADP weekly employment: 16.8K vs 18.5k prior
  • Durable Goods m.m: 1.8% vs 1.5% cons, prior 0.1%
  • Non-defense, ex-aircraft: 0.5% vs 0.7% cons, prior 1.5%
  • Case-Shiller home prices YoY: 2.7% vs. 2.5% cons., prior 2.5%
  • Consumer Confidence: 91.7 vs. 81 cons., prior 84.2
  • New Home Sales: 676k vs. 650k cons,. prior revised to 680k from 684k
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing index: -2 vs 0 cons, prior -2
  • Dallas Fed Services Index: 4 prior -1.8

Global:
  • China Industrial Profits YTD: 15.5% vs 15.7% prior
  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence: 66.27 vs 68.77 prior
  • South Korea GDP m.m / y.y: 1.0% / 3.4% vs 0.8% / 3.1% cons, prior 0.6% / 3.7%
  • South Korea Consumer Confidence: 105.4 vs prior 106.6
  • France Consumer Confidence: 80 vs 85 cons, prior 85

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