STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 7/13/26 (a/o 3:00 pm)
DOW 52,484 (-153), S&P 500 7,523 (-53), Russell 2000 2,953 (-25), NYSE FANG+ 17,458 (-112), ICE Brent Crude $83.07/barrel (+$7.06), Gold $4,006/oz (-$108), Bitcoin ~62.0k (-2012)
- Tech under pressure; Oil jumps again on Iran hostilities
- Equal-weight flat despite headline weakness
- CPI, bank earnings tomorrow
- Let’s Go GOTHS!
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 544: New York Giants' Kayvon Thibodeaux on Money, Mentorship, and the 2026 Season
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a reasonably tight range, consolidating just over its 50d moving average. It was a definitely a summer trading vibe, with little economic data and markets looking ahead to the earnings season kicking off this week. The S&P ended less than 1% from another ATH. Technology provided most of the gains with the NYSE 100 index closing the week up ~2.5%. However, most other major US indices ended the week with slight losses and there was a lot of movement under the surface as oil prices and yields moved higher as the ceasefire fell apart.
The weekend saw the US and Iran exchange fire multiple times. That drove oil prices higher again. Asian markets saw pronounced selling pressure overnight, especially in the Tech names and South Korea. The S&P 500 opened down 0.4% and has moved steadily lower, currently down almost 1%. The equal-weight is out-performing however and is almost flat as, like the rest of the world, the weakness is centered in Tech. Small caps are trading around inline.
The NYSE Semis Index is down 5%, and the memory names are leading that fall as the DRAM ETF gets hit for 10%. The Hyperscalers are mostly higher though as that divergence continues. Energy is easily the leading sector but 6/11 are in the green. The defensive Staples and Utilities are among the leaders.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report there is no economic data on the calendar. NY Fed Governor Waller spoke today with some hawkish comments. He said a rate hike should be on the table if this week’s CPI comes in hot. He included this line: "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.” Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress tomorrow. Treasuries are up 4-6bp across the curve, following oil higher, and that’s also strengthening the Dollar against the major currencies.
- US 2yr +5bps to 4.26%, 5yr +6bps to 4.37%, 10yr +5bps to 4.61%, 30yr +4bps to 5.10%
- USD index: +$0.29 to $101.05
Brent crude is up ~10%, jumping to the day’s highs after President Trump announced he was reinstating the Iran blockade after the weekend hostilities across the region. In addition, the United States of America will now be known as “THE GUARDIANS OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”, or GOTHS. Can’t wait for the next Olympics. He also said the US will be reimbursed for any necessary costs of promoting the safety in the region, at 20% on all cargo shipped.
Oil continued to extend to the upside throughout the rest of the day, breaking above $80. US natural gas is down over 1% though, while prices in Europe rose 5% after jumping >10% last week. Precious metals are under pressure as oil climbs, with gold trying to hold $4000. Copper reversed overnight losses and is around flat, trading just below its 50d ma. Ag is mostly higher though wheat is off about 1%. Crytpo is under pressure with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down ~2%.
Global equities were mixed. European indices ended flat to higher and near best levels as tech weakness was offset by strength in Utilities, Energy and Communication names. Asian tech-heavy indices were under significant pressure. South Korea’s KOSPI plummeted 9% and triggered its 7th market wide circuit breaker this year. Samsung joined SK Hynix in the drawdown as the stock fell ~10%. The Nikkei fell nearly 2%. Memory peer Kioxia fell over 10% while SoftBank was flat and financials were generally higher (Mitsubishi +2%). The Japanese government may delay its economic blueprint release as policymakers reassess the plan after the recent backup in JGB yields. Meanwhile the government has no immediate plans to change target asset allocations of state pension funds, according to reports. China’s Shanghai Composite was down 2% on tech weakness (Shengyi, GigaDevice -10%). Hong Kong was slightly higher however, helped by Financials, Energy and Communications stocks, similar to Europe.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AERO, FBK
- Pre-Market (Tues): BAC, C, CRMT, FAST, GS, JPM, WFC
- After-Market (Tues): AEHR, EQBK
Economic Data:
US:
- Monthly Budget Statement (June): $-120B vs $-132.8B cons, prior $-293B
Global:
- India Trade Balance: $-30.4B vs.$-26.5B cons, prior -$28.2B
- India Inflation: 4.38% y/y vs. 4.3% cons, prior 3.93%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/13/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Last week there was a bit of a summer lull in between key economic data and ahead of the on-ramp to the Q2 Earnings Expressway starting tomorrow. However, geopolitics and AI-related headlines filled the void of scheduled catalysts driving some choppy trade. The S&P 500 traded in a reasonably tight range consolidating just over its 50d moving average ending the week modestly higher and within less than 1% from another ATH. Technology provided most of the gains with the NYSE 100 index closing the week up ~2.5%. However, most other major US indices ended the week with slight losses. Oil prices and yields ended moved higher as the ceasefire fell apart.
Futures are trading modestly lower amidst a weekend where the US and Iran continued to exchange fire and some conflicting headlines around the Strait. Oil prices are higher once again with ICE Brent retesting $80. Treasury yields also retested recent highs but are only up ~2bps. From a market perspective, the bigger story overnight was weakness in tech stocks in Asia, particularly memory companies in South Korea, though there wasn’t a clear headline catalyst. The Kospi falling 9% triggering its 7th market wide circuit breaker this year as SK Hynix fell ~15%, a day after its US ADR debut, while Samsung was also down ~10%. Tech stocks are under pressure in the pre-market - SMH down ~2% while DRAM is lower by ~9%. Taiwan Semi is bucking the weakness after providing a sales update, ahead of earnings on Thursday, highlighting strong AI demand with Q2 revenue up ~36% and June up nearly 70%.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report there is no economic data on the calendar. Fed Chair Warsh will also be testifying before Congress tomorrow but this afternoon we’ll hear from Fed Waller, an influential voice on the Committee, that has been getting progressively more hawkish recently. Treasury yields are up ~2bps across the curve. The USD index was higher overnight but pulled back as European markets opened.
Mixed overnight session with tech heavy indices in Asia under pressure however, European indices are hovering around unchanged. The Nikkei fell nearly 2%. The China Shanghai Composite was down a similar amount though the Hong Kong Hang Seng ended modestly higher helped by financials, energy stocks and communications stocks. European indices are mixed with tech weakness offset by strength in Utilities, energy and communication companies.
Oil prices had pulled back from the initial highs as European markets opened but have been moving higher again over the last couple of hours currently up ~4%. US nat gas is down ~1% though prices in Europe are on the move higher again after jumping >10% last week. Precious metals are under pressure though copper has reversed overnight losses and is trading modestly higher. Ag is mixed. Crytpo is under pressure with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down ~2%.
Pretty quiet on the corporate headline front but that will change tomorrow with earnings from the major banks (BAC, C, GS, JPM, WFC).
Economic Data:
US:
Last week there was a bit of a summer lull in between key economic data and ahead of the on-ramp to the Q2 Earnings Expressway starting tomorrow. However, geopolitics and AI-related headlines filled the void of scheduled catalysts driving some choppy trade. The S&P 500 traded in a reasonably tight range consolidating just over its 50d moving average ending the week modestly higher and within less than 1% from another ATH. Technology provided most of the gains with the NYSE 100 index closing the week up ~2.5%. However, most other major US indices ended the week with slight losses. Oil prices and yields ended moved higher as the ceasefire fell apart.
Futures are trading modestly lower amidst a weekend where the US and Iran continued to exchange fire and some conflicting headlines around the Strait. Oil prices are higher once again with ICE Brent retesting $80. Treasury yields also retested recent highs but are only up ~2bps. From a market perspective, the bigger story overnight was weakness in tech stocks in Asia, particularly memory companies in South Korea, though there wasn’t a clear headline catalyst. The Kospi falling 9% triggering its 7th market wide circuit breaker this year as SK Hynix fell ~15%, a day after its US ADR debut, while Samsung was also down ~10%. Tech stocks are under pressure in the pre-market - SMH down ~2% while DRAM is lower by ~9%. Taiwan Semi is bucking the weakness after providing a sales update, ahead of earnings on Thursday, highlighting strong AI demand with Q2 revenue up ~36% and June up nearly 70%.
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report there is no economic data on the calendar. Fed Chair Warsh will also be testifying before Congress tomorrow but this afternoon we’ll hear from Fed Waller, an influential voice on the Committee, that has been getting progressively more hawkish recently. Treasury yields are up ~2bps across the curve. The USD index was higher overnight but pulled back as European markets opened.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.22%, 5yr +2bps to 4.32%, 10yr +2bps to 4.58%, 30yr +2bps to 5.08%
- USD index: -$0.06 to $100.70
Mixed overnight session with tech heavy indices in Asia under pressure however, European indices are hovering around unchanged. The Nikkei fell nearly 2%. The China Shanghai Composite was down a similar amount though the Hong Kong Hang Seng ended modestly higher helped by financials, energy stocks and communications stocks. European indices are mixed with tech weakness offset by strength in Utilities, energy and communication companies.
Oil prices had pulled back from the initial highs as European markets opened but have been moving higher again over the last couple of hours currently up ~4%. US nat gas is down ~1% though prices in Europe are on the move higher again after jumping >10% last week. Precious metals are under pressure though copper has reversed overnight losses and is trading modestly higher. Ag is mixed. Crytpo is under pressure with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down ~2%.
Pretty quiet on the corporate headline front but that will change tomorrow with earnings from the major banks (BAC, C, GS, JPM, WFC).
Economic Data:
US:
- 11:30 3/6mo T-Bill Auction
- 12:30 Fed Waller
- 2:00 Monthly Budget Statement
- India Trade Balance: $-30.4B vs.$-26.5B cons., prior -$28.2B
- India Inflation: 4.38% y/y vs. 4.3% cons., prior 3.93%
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