STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 4/01/26
DOW 46,541 (+199), S&P 500 6,566 (+38), Russell 2000 2,530 (+33), NYSE FANG+ 14,081 (+225), ICE Brent Crude $100.47/barrel (-$3.50), Gold $4,798/oz (+$119), Bitcoin ~68.0k (-169)
- Following through on yesterday's strength
- Trump speaks tonight
- Cyclicals, Tech higher again
- Crude lower, yields flat
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 521: AEM CEO Megan Tanel on how ConExpo-ConAgg Powers Construction's Growth & Future
- ETF Central: Team Epiphany Founder & CEO Coltrane Curtis
- NYSE Research Insights: Fractional Reporting Early Findings
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Prepayments Rise on Recent Refinance Activity and Serious Delinquencies Increase as Cure Rates Slow
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Happy April Fools. If authorities are still searching for the Kit Kat bandits that stole 12 tons of the chocolates en-route from Italy to Poland, they may want to check the NYSE marketing and events floor for fingerprints after Hershey rang the Opening Bell yesterday.
Speaking of yesterday, above the mountains of chocolate, we managed to see a few rays of light break through the Iran war clouds, driving optimism that a US exit from Iran was getting closer. That, and end-of-quarter flows triggered a sharp rally across markets. The S&P 500 gained 2%, Russell 2000 over 3%. Gold rose as well while Brent (with the front-month rolling) fell 3% and yields dropped ~5bp as treasuries were bid. The Iran news centered on President Trump’s willingness to exit from the conflict without re-opening Hormuz as well as comments from Iranian leadership.
There’s also the re-emergence of President Trump’s frustration with NATO and its response to US calls for assistance, calling the organization a “paper tiger” and saying he is strongly considering pulling the US out of the alliance in an interview with the UK Telegraph. He has doubled down on those comments across several other media outlets. Trump is scheduled to address the nation tonight, with updates on Iran and more commentary around NATO (and Europe) as the focal points.
In the meantime, hostilities continue across the Middle East, including more reported missile launches at Israel. According to the WSJ, the UAE is preparing to help open Hormuz by force, lobbying the UN for a resolution to authorize the action. That would be a significant strategic shift in the Iran action and the global order. US and Iran trade often-conflicting messages about ceasefire discussions.
With all these cross-currents, US equities are following-through on yesterday’s gains and were at their best levels before reports out of Israel that negotiations between the US and Iran are not progressing well. That has pushed equities off their highs, though still up ~0.5%. Other reports indicate that plans for escalation are underway if negotiations fail, though that isn’t too surprising and probably comes under the heading of “War Planning Best Practices”. Meanwhile, Iranian President Pezeshkian is expected to release a letter “to the American people in a few hours”. Small and mid-caps are slightly outperforming and the equal-weight is lagging a bit with Growth>Value.
The leader board looks much like yesterday, with tech and cyclicals at the top. Industrials are strong again, across-the-board. Comm Services is also a leader as Google and Meta continue their strength from yesterday and bounce off oversold conditions from the past two weeks. Tech is slightly outperforming. Semis in particular are strong (Intel +10% on its repurchase of equity interest in Irish fab) and easily outperforming software which is trading around flat. Energy and Staples are the only sectors lower but Energy stands apart, dropping 4% with the major E&Ps down ~5%. Staples is seeing most names lower and some negative earnings reactions from Lamb Weston and McCormick (acquisition follow-through).
Yesterday was also active on the capital markets front. McCormick officially announced plans to combine with Unilever’s food business, at an EV value ~$45B. In biopharma, Lilly and Biogen announced deals for Centessa (up to $8B) and Apellis (up to $6B), respectively. OpenAI completed its latest funding round, raising $122B at a valuation of $852B.
Shifting to economic data, this morning’s ADP and Retail Sales releases were solid, supporting equities. 62k private jobs were added in March according to ADP’s report, in line with last month and above consensus of 40k additions. The smallest companies (<20 employees) showed the strongest gains, adding 112k jobs, while companies with 20-249 employees shed 53k. Natural resources, mining and construction industries added 41k jobs, education and health services 58k (it’s been a consistent driver of gains) while manufacturing shed 11k and trade, transportation and utilities -58k. The monthly jobs report will be released on Friday, when markets are closed, which could set up an interesting decision on how much risk investors are willing to hold at the Close tomorrow. Before that, more jobs data will come from the Challenger Job cuts and weekly jobless claims reports tomorrow.
Retail Sales for February rose from January and beat consensus- both Headline and Control-group. It’s a solid report but comes before any impact from the Iran war. Motor vehicle/parts (+1.2%), Health/personal care (+2.3%), clothing/accessories (+2.0%), Department stores (+3.0%) and other store retailers (+1.1%) all showed solid gains. Furniture/furnishings and grocery stores (-1.0%) were the only categories with declines.
March ISM Manufacturing also came in slightly ahead of estimates and last month (52.7 vs 52.5 and 52.4, respectively). New Order activity slowed modestly but Production picked up. Prices also saw a large increase and reached the highest level since June 2022.
Multiple comments mentioned Iran as new source of uncertainty, as expected, compounding prior geopolitical moves. Related to that was turmoil in the olefins and polyolefins markets. Others noted areas of strength:
“Customer orders have increased considerably as the construction market remains strong, resulting in higher production volume and increased forecasts to suppliers.” [Machinery]
Treasury yields are flat, moving to their highs after the earlier economic data before pulling back modestly and then slowly climbing back. The US Dollar Index is lower, with the Pound seeing outsized strength.
- US 2yr -0bps to 3.80%, 5yr +0bps to 3.95%, 10yr -0bps to 4.32%, 30yr -1bps to 4.90%
- USD index: -$0.39 to $99.37
Major European indexes ended up over 2% and at session highs. Banks were leading the way (Barclays, BNP, Santander +5%). UK yields continued to cool off. 2y and 10y gilts fell 10bp. Japan’s Nikkei ripped 5% overnight while China gained ~2% across its markets. China’s private Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates and down from last month but remained marginally in expansion. According to reports, officials will extend the oil export ban into April, with some exceptions. South Korea ripped 8%, with Samsung jumping over 10%.
Brent crude is down again and trading just above $100, with the June contract now the front-month. Both API and EIA inventory data showed builds, which were above generally unchanged estimates. Precious metals are higher, with gold leading. Both silver and gold regained their 100d ma. Crypto is modestly higher. Bitcoin remains below its 50d ma ($68k vs $72k) while Ether broke above it earlier this week.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Wed): FC, PENG
- Pre-Market (Thrs): None
- After-Market (Thrs): None
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: -2.6% vs prior -5.4%
- Refis: -17.3% vs prior -14.6%
- 30yr rate: 6.57% vs prior 6.43%
- ADP employment change: 62k vs 40k cons, prior 63k
- Retail Sales m.m: 0.6% vs 0.5% cons, prior -0.1%
- Control Group: 0.5% vs 0.3% cons, prior 0.3%
- Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 vs flash 52.4
- ISM Manufacturing: 52.7 vs 52.5 cons, prior 52.4
- Business Inventories m.m: -0.1% vs 0.1% cons, prior 0.0%
- Retail Inventories, ex-auto: 0.3% vs prior 0.4%
- API Crude Inventories (AMC Tues): 10.263M vs -1.3M cons, prior 2.3M
- EIA Crude inventories: 5.451M vs 0.8M cons, prior 6.926M
Global:
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 vs 51.6 cons, prior 52.1
- Non Manufacturing: 50.1 vs 49.9 cons, prior 49.5
- Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index: 17 vs 16 cons, prior 15
- South Korea Exports (March) y.y: 48.3% vs 44.9% cons, prior 28.7%
- Europe Unemployment: 6.2% vs 6.1% cons, prior 6.1%
NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 04/01/2026 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning and Happy April Fools,
Yesterday a few rays of light broke through the Iran war clouds, exciting a market that’s been searching for signs military operations would cease. That, and end-of-quarter flows triggered a sharp rally across markets. The S&P 500 gained 2%, Russell 2000 over 3%. Gold rose as well while Brent (with the front-month rolling) fell 3% and yields dropped ~5bp as treasuries were bid. The Iran news centered on President Trump’s willingness to exit from the conflict without re-opening Hormuz and comments from Iranian leadership. Trump is scheduled to address the nation tonight.
Equity futures are following-through on yesterday’s gains but are sliding from this morning’s highs as we approach the open. According to the WSJ, the UAE is preparing to help open Hormuz by force, lobbying the UN for a resolution to authorize the action. That would be a significant strategic shift in the Iran action and the global order. One other thing to keep an eye on is the re-emergence of President Trump’s frustration with NATO and its response to US calls for assistance during the Iran war, calling the organization a “paper tiger” and saying he is strongly considering pulling the US out of the alliance in an interview with the UK Telegraph, and doubling down with comments this morning. Shifting to economic data, this morning’s ADP and Retail Sales releases were solid, further supporting equities. A couple of retail/consumer-facing names are under pressure following earnings. Nike and Restoration Hardware are down >10% in the pre-market. Apparel maker PVH reported strong earnings and is modestly higher. Egg supplier Cal-Maine is trading modestly higher after solidly beating estimates this morning, while noting conventional egg sales fell 72% for the quarter due mainly due to a 70% decline in selling prices as egg-flation collapsed. Yesterday was also active on the capital markets front. McCormick officially announced plans to combine with Unilever’s food business, at an EV value ~$45B. In biopharma, Lilly and Biogen announced deals for Centessa (up to $8B) and Apellis (up to $6B), respectively. OpenAI completed its latest funding round, raising $122B at a valuation of $852B.
62k private jobs were added in March according to ADP’s employment report today, in line with last month and above consensus of 40k additions. The smallest companies (<20 employees) showed the strongest gains, adding 112k jobs, while companies with 20-249 employees shed 53k. Natural resources, mining and construction industries added 41k jobs, education and health services 58k (its been a consistent driver of gains) while manufacturing shed 11k and trade, transportation and utilities -58k. The monthly jobs report will be released on Friday, when markets are closed, which could set up an interesting decision on how much risk investors are willing to hold at the Close tomorrow. Retail Sales for February rose from January and beat consensus, both Headline and Control-group. It’s a solid report but comes before any impact from the Iran war. Motor vehicle/parts (+1.2%), Health/personal care (+2.3%), clothing/accessories (+2.0%), Department stores (+3.0%) and other store retailers (+1.1%) all showed solid gains. Furniture/furnishings and grocery stores (-1.0%) were the only categories with declines. Treasury yields were trading lower but rose following the ADP and Retail Sales numbers.
Major European indexes are up over 2% and at/near session highs. Banks are leading (Barclays, BNP, Santander +5%). Sovereign yields continue to pull back. The 10y gilt is 10bp lower this morning. Japan’s Nikkei ripped 5% overnight while China gained ~2% across its markets. China’s private Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates and down from last month but remained marginally in expansion. According to reports, officials will extend the oil export ban into April, with some exceptions. South Korea ripped 8%, with Samsung jumping over 10%.
Brent crude is down modestly and trading just above $100, with the June contract now the front-month. Nat gas is also lower. Precious metals are little-changed outside of gold, which is up 2%. Both silver and gold regained their 100d ma. Crypto is modestly higher. Bitcoin remains below its 50d ma ($68.6k vs $71.9k) while Ether broke above it earlier this week.
Earnings:
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday a few rays of light broke through the Iran war clouds, exciting a market that’s been searching for signs military operations would cease. That, and end-of-quarter flows triggered a sharp rally across markets. The S&P 500 gained 2%, Russell 2000 over 3%. Gold rose as well while Brent (with the front-month rolling) fell 3% and yields dropped ~5bp as treasuries were bid. The Iran news centered on President Trump’s willingness to exit from the conflict without re-opening Hormuz and comments from Iranian leadership. Trump is scheduled to address the nation tonight.
Equity futures are following-through on yesterday’s gains but are sliding from this morning’s highs as we approach the open. According to the WSJ, the UAE is preparing to help open Hormuz by force, lobbying the UN for a resolution to authorize the action. That would be a significant strategic shift in the Iran action and the global order. One other thing to keep an eye on is the re-emergence of President Trump’s frustration with NATO and its response to US calls for assistance during the Iran war, calling the organization a “paper tiger” and saying he is strongly considering pulling the US out of the alliance in an interview with the UK Telegraph, and doubling down with comments this morning. Shifting to economic data, this morning’s ADP and Retail Sales releases were solid, further supporting equities. A couple of retail/consumer-facing names are under pressure following earnings. Nike and Restoration Hardware are down >10% in the pre-market. Apparel maker PVH reported strong earnings and is modestly higher. Egg supplier Cal-Maine is trading modestly higher after solidly beating estimates this morning, while noting conventional egg sales fell 72% for the quarter due mainly due to a 70% decline in selling prices as egg-flation collapsed. Yesterday was also active on the capital markets front. McCormick officially announced plans to combine with Unilever’s food business, at an EV value ~$45B. In biopharma, Lilly and Biogen announced deals for Centessa (up to $8B) and Apellis (up to $6B), respectively. OpenAI completed its latest funding round, raising $122B at a valuation of $852B.
62k private jobs were added in March according to ADP’s employment report today, in line with last month and above consensus of 40k additions. The smallest companies (<20 employees) showed the strongest gains, adding 112k jobs, while companies with 20-249 employees shed 53k. Natural resources, mining and construction industries added 41k jobs, education and health services 58k (its been a consistent driver of gains) while manufacturing shed 11k and trade, transportation and utilities -58k. The monthly jobs report will be released on Friday, when markets are closed, which could set up an interesting decision on how much risk investors are willing to hold at the Close tomorrow. Retail Sales for February rose from January and beat consensus, both Headline and Control-group. It’s a solid report but comes before any impact from the Iran war. Motor vehicle/parts (+1.2%), Health/personal care (+2.3%), clothing/accessories (+2.0%), Department stores (+3.0%) and other store retailers (+1.1%) all showed solid gains. Furniture/furnishings and grocery stores (-1.0%) were the only categories with declines. Treasury yields were trading lower but rose following the ADP and Retail Sales numbers.
- US 2yr +1bps to 3.81%, 5yr +1bps to 3.96%, 10yr +1bps to 4.33%, 30yr +0bps to 4.92%
- USD index: -$0.50 to $99.26
Major European indexes are up over 2% and at/near session highs. Banks are leading (Barclays, BNP, Santander +5%). Sovereign yields continue to pull back. The 10y gilt is 10bp lower this morning. Japan’s Nikkei ripped 5% overnight while China gained ~2% across its markets. China’s private Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates and down from last month but remained marginally in expansion. According to reports, officials will extend the oil export ban into April, with some exceptions. South Korea ripped 8%, with Samsung jumping over 10%.
Brent crude is down modestly and trading just above $100, with the June contract now the front-month. Nat gas is also lower. Precious metals are little-changed outside of gold, which is up 2%. Both silver and gold regained their 100d ma. Crypto is modestly higher. Bitcoin remains below its 50d ma ($68.6k vs $71.9k) while Ether broke above it earlier this week.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Tues): NKE, PLAY, PVH, RH
- Pre-Market: CAG, CALM, LW, MSM, UNF
- After-Market: FC, PENG
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: -2.6% vs prior -5.4%
- Refis: -17.3% vs prior -14.6%
- 30yr rate: 6.57% vs prior 6.43%
- ADP employment change: 62k vs 40k cons, prior 63k
- Retail Sales m.m: 0.6% vs 0.5% cons, prior -0.1%
- Control Group: 0.5% vs 0.3% cons, prior 0.3%
- Fed Speakers: Musalem, Barr (9am)
- 9:45am Final Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00am ISM Manufacturing
- 10:00am Inventories
- 10:3am EIA Crude inventories
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 vs 51.6 cons, prior 52.1
- Non Manufacturing: 50.1 vs 49.9 cons, prior 49.5
- Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index: 17 vs 16 cons, prior 15
- South Korea Exports (March) y.y: 48.3% vs 44.9% cons, prior 28.7%
- Europe Unemployment: 6.2% vs 6.1% cons, prior 6.1%
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