STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 8/10/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 53,897 (-139), S&P 500 7,749 (-9), Russell 2000 3,016 (-19), NYSE FANG+ 18,793 (+70), ICE Brent Crude $87.35/barrel (+$3.80), Gold $4,423/oz (+$23), Bitcoin ~63.9k (-1006)
- Quiet start to a dog day week
- Energy leading on oil's strength
- Dollar recouping intervention losses
- Changing the Iran soundtracks
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
- Inside the ICE House
- James Rutledge Shares Six Decades of History Inside the NYSE
- ETF Central: Baron Capital Head of ETF Solutions Matt Camuso
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage Holder Equity Climbs to Record $18 Trillion as Annual Home Price Growth Reaches 14-Month High
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The waves were relatively tame in Wildwood, NJ last week, but compared to today’s action they looked like the 100-footers in Nazaré.
It’s shaping up to be a good ‘ole Dog Day summer Monday on Wall Street today after stocks saw broad gains last week and most major US indices hit new all-time highs. Tech did much of the heavy lifting (NYSE 100 +5.6%, NYSE Semis and IGV software ETF +8%). Energy, staples and other yield-oriented sectors underperformed. Oil prices fell >5% on Iran deal hopes, which along with a weak jobs report on Friday helped Treasury yields end the week down ~10bps. USD weakness and easing rate hike expectations helped the metals complex move sharply higher (Gold +7%). Crypto also ended the week with gains despite the Clarity Act getting pushed out to the Fall. Speaking of…first Spirit Halloween store sighting of the season last week.
US futures were slightly higher overnight but drifted lower as we approached the Open. The S&P 500 opened down 0.1% and is currently around flat, trading in a ~30-point range. The equal-weight is around inline, while small caps bring up the rear as the Russell is down 0.5%. After trading ~18-20 during the second half July, the VIX has fallen back to 15 and the MOVE has came off its recent highs, dropping from ~85 to 72 (YTD low is ~55).
President Trump has moved from his DMX-inspired “hit ‘em hard” Iran soundtrack to the more Yacht Rock vibes of “low-keying” it with them. He suggested that he would allow economic pressure to take its toll on the regime rather than escalate military strikes. A list of demands from Iran for reopening the strait were filled with non-starters and we await the official Oman-Iran deal.
Sectors are split about evenly between gainers and decliners. Energy is leading today with crude’s 3% gain. Healthcare is the only other sector with a meaningful gain. Strength is broad outside of some modest weakness in a few facilities/managed care names. A backup in yields is helping push Real Estate and Utilities to the back of the line. Tech is also lower but is seeing divergence between software(+ve) and semis/hardware. Intel (-2%) announced a $15B stock offering and Nvidia (-3%) is reportedly working on a $500B (not a typo) data center financing deal with major Wall Street firms. Optical stocks are seeing some weakness after Coherent’s earnings (-12%) and data centers/neoclouds are getting hit across-the-board (BTDR equity raise, KEEL earnings). Apple (-2%) was downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, citing cancellation of the all-glass iPhone due to production issues. Lastly, Meta CEO Zuckerberg wrote a blog post which highlighted Meta’s renewed push into open-weight AI models, investment in towns near its data centers, tougher AI governance, and earlier government involvement in model releases, among other topics.
Brent crude is trading higher for the fourth straight day, breaking above its 100d ma ~$85.50 and now ~$87. Natural gas is trading higher as well in the US and Europe. US gas is bouncing off 14-week lows. Gold's rally last week is continuing at the start of this week with the metal approaching its declining 100d ma ~$4435. Ag is modestly higher with the monthly WASDE report due on Wednesday. Crypto is lower with Bitcoin and ETH down about 2% and hovering above their 50d ma.
It’s a very light economic calendar today. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is scheduled to be interviewed on Yahoo Finance at 3pm ET. Her commentary should be interesting as she was one of the three dissenting votes at the most recent Fed meeting, preferring to raise rates rather than keep them unchanged. Tomorrow will also be a relatively light day for eco data, with Business Optimism, ADP weekly employment and Existing Home Sales released. There will also be a 3y treasury auction. Treasury yields are up 4-5bp across the curve, following crude higher. The US Dollar Index is is modestly higher, though the Dollar is substantially stronger against the yen.
- US 2yr +4bps to 4.24%, 5yr +5bps to 4.41%, 10yr +5bps to 4.70%, 30yr +4bps to 5.24%
- USD index: +$0.08 to $99.50
Global markets were mostly higher overnight, extending last week’s gains. European indices aren’t doing much, hovering around unchanged with the FTSE 100 lagging. Energy stocks are leading and Tech is mostly green, while telecom is lagging. Over in Asia the Nikkei was up ~2% helped by strength in tech stocks while financials were under pressure. Recruit Holdings (6098), owner of job sites Indeed and Glassdoor, rose over 20% after reporting earnings. The company’s AI-based products were a key growth driver, notable as investors continue to grapple with the impact of AI on software and services. The Dollar continues to claw back the recent intervention-triggered weakness against the yen and has regained the 200d ma ~¥158, as it makes a run back to ~¥159 . According to a report this morning, hawkish signals that the BOJ could hike in September led the US to join the FX market intervention. South Korea ended higher despite the memory stocks closing lower. Apple has reportedly been testing CXMT chips for use in products sold in China. Speaking of, inflation data in China came in below expectations. The Hang Seng ended up just over 1% with broad based strength and mainland indices also ended higher.
Earnings:
After-Market: AAON, ACHR, ACM, ALC, AMTM, ASTS, BW, BZH, BBIO, GETY, HIMS, PLUG, QUBT, RKLB, SPG, UPWK
Pre-Market (Tues): ARMK, CAH, MIDD, ONON, RXT, SFD, TME. VG, VSTS
After-Market (Tues): CAVA, CRWV, FLY, HRB, LITE, QNT, SMCI
Economic Data:
US:
- 3pm Fed Hammack
Global:
- China CPI: -0.1% / 0.5% m.m / y.y vs. 0.2% / 0.8% cons., prior -0.3% / 1%
- China PPI: 3.5% vs. 3.8% cons., prior 4.1%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/10/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
We’ve officially got a summer Monday. US markets rallied last week with most major US indices hitting new all-time highs. Equity markets were propelled higher by mis-positioning, particularly in tech, some maybe mis-guided hope around a diplomatic resolution in Iran, and mis-priced earnings (really they were just very strong). The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.6% with broad based strength though tech did much of the heavy lifting (NYSE 100 +5.6%). Energy, staples and other yield-oriented sectors underperformed. Oil prices fell >5% amidst the Iran deal hopes which along with a weak jobs report on Friday helped Treasury yields end the week down ~10bps. The USD weakness and easing rate hike expectations helped the metals complex move sharply higher. Crypto also ended the week with gains despite the Clarity Act getting pushed out to the fall.
US futures were slightly higher overnight but have been drifting lower over the last couple of hours. Last week’s deal hopes are fading a bit with a new round of demands from Iran and President Trump saying that the US is only “semi-negotiating”. However, he did suggest that he would let economic pressure bring them back to the table as opposed to reiterating that he would “hit ‘em hard”. Oil prices and Treasury yields are both moving modestly higher. CPI on Wednesday, is the week’s major catalyst. Earnings quiet down this week. Berkshire is trading a touch higher this morning after EPS came in well ahead of estimates though there is some focus on weaker GEICO results. Futures are slightly lower across the board.
Below are some of the headlines getting attention this morning.
Global markets were mostly higher overnight extending last week’s gains. The Nikkei was up ~2% helped by strength in tech stocks though financials were under pressure. The Yen has been weakening despite BOJ Summary of Opinions having a hawkish tilt. This morning Kyodo is reporting that a signal that the BOJ could hike in September led the US join currency operations. South Korea ended slightly higher despite the memory stocks closing lower. Apple has reportedly been testing CXMT chips. Inflation data in China came in below expectations. The Hang Seng ended up just over 1% with broad based strength while mainland indices also ended higher. European indices are modestly higher. The FTSE 100 is slightly lower with staples, communication and healthcare moving lower.
Oil prices have are up ~2% as deal hopes fade. US natural gas prices are bouncing nearly 5% after hitting new lows last week. Prices in Europe are also >5%. After last week’s gains metals are mixed on either side of unchanged. Ag is moving higher ahead of the WASDE report later this week. Crypto is hovering around unchanged.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: BRK.B, CRC, DOLE, FERG, MNDY, SDRL, SBET, SOHU
After-Market: AAON, ACHR, ACM, ALC, AMTM, ASTS, BW, BZH, BBIO, GETY, HIMS, PLUG, QUBT, RKLB, SPG, UPWK
Pre-Market: ARMK, CAH, MIDD, ONON, RXT, SFD, TME. VG, VSTS
Economic Data:
US:
We’ve officially got a summer Monday. US markets rallied last week with most major US indices hitting new all-time highs. Equity markets were propelled higher by mis-positioning, particularly in tech, some maybe mis-guided hope around a diplomatic resolution in Iran, and mis-priced earnings (really they were just very strong). The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.6% with broad based strength though tech did much of the heavy lifting (NYSE 100 +5.6%). Energy, staples and other yield-oriented sectors underperformed. Oil prices fell >5% amidst the Iran deal hopes which along with a weak jobs report on Friday helped Treasury yields end the week down ~10bps. The USD weakness and easing rate hike expectations helped the metals complex move sharply higher. Crypto also ended the week with gains despite the Clarity Act getting pushed out to the fall.
US futures were slightly higher overnight but have been drifting lower over the last couple of hours. Last week’s deal hopes are fading a bit with a new round of demands from Iran and President Trump saying that the US is only “semi-negotiating”. However, he did suggest that he would let economic pressure bring them back to the table as opposed to reiterating that he would “hit ‘em hard”. Oil prices and Treasury yields are both moving modestly higher. CPI on Wednesday, is the week’s major catalyst. Earnings quiet down this week. Berkshire is trading a touch higher this morning after EPS came in well ahead of estimates though there is some focus on weaker GEICO results. Futures are slightly lower across the board.
- US 2yr +3bps to 4.23%, 5yr +3bps to 4.39%, 10yr +3bps to 4.68%, 30yr +2bps to 5.22%
- USD index: +$0.08 to $99.50
Below are some of the headlines getting attention this morning.
- Taiwan Semi (around unch) - reported July revenues +45%
- Intel (-5%) announced $15B equity offering
- Meta (+2%) released its new Muse Glimmer AI model. CEO Zuckerberg released a letter “The Path to a Positive AI Future”
- SpaceX/Nvidia/Microsoft - SemiAnalysis says SPCX can hit the 10GW+ of compute capacity which could require $300 - $500B of Capex with Nvidia potentially backstopping some of this. Microsoft could offtake some of that capacity.
- HZO being bought for $1.5B by Blackstone portfolio company
Global markets were mostly higher overnight extending last week’s gains. The Nikkei was up ~2% helped by strength in tech stocks though financials were under pressure. The Yen has been weakening despite BOJ Summary of Opinions having a hawkish tilt. This morning Kyodo is reporting that a signal that the BOJ could hike in September led the US join currency operations. South Korea ended slightly higher despite the memory stocks closing lower. Apple has reportedly been testing CXMT chips. Inflation data in China came in below expectations. The Hang Seng ended up just over 1% with broad based strength while mainland indices also ended higher. European indices are modestly higher. The FTSE 100 is slightly lower with staples, communication and healthcare moving lower.
Oil prices have are up ~2% as deal hopes fade. US natural gas prices are bouncing nearly 5% after hitting new lows last week. Prices in Europe are also >5%. After last week’s gains metals are mixed on either side of unchanged. Ag is moving higher ahead of the WASDE report later this week. Crypto is hovering around unchanged.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: BRK.B, CRC, DOLE, FERG, MNDY, SDRL, SBET, SOHU
After-Market: AAON, ACHR, ACM, ALC, AMTM, ASTS, BW, BZH, BBIO, GETY, HIMS, PLUG, QUBT, RKLB, SPG, UPWK
Pre-Market: ARMK, CAH, MIDD, ONON, RXT, SFD, TME. VG, VSTS
Economic Data:
US:
- 11:30 3/6mo T-Bill
- China CPI: -0.1%/0.5% m.m/y.y vs. 0.2%/0.8% cons., prior -0.3%/1%
- China PPI: 3.5% vs. 3.8% cons., prior 4.1%
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