NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 12/05/2025
Good morning and Happy Friday,
The S&P 500 finished slightly positive yesterday after a last minute rally, trying to look busy before the 102nd Annual NYSE Tree Lighting. Congrats to all my colleagues that put the extravaganza together. Yesterday’s gain made it 8 out of the past 9 days in the green. Small caps outperformed with the Russell adding 0.8%. Treasury yields rose 3-5bp after solid employment data. S&P futures have been in another tight range this morning and slid around 8:30am, though they are currently trying to get green again.
Big M&A news today as Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Bros. for $72B in cash and stock. Reports of a deal for the company have been out there for a while, with multiple suitors taking turns as likely buyers. The deal would reshape the media landscape but is also likely to attract strong anti-trust scrutiny, especially since the HBO Max streaming service would be under Netflix’s banner. I just want to be able to watch Season 3 of House of the Dragon. Reactions to tech earnings last night have not been favorable. HPE, S, DOCU are all down 5-10% in the pre-market. HPE was the latest to highlight rising memory costs. On the other hand, RBRK is seeing a solid reaction in the pre-market, while apparel/consumer names ZUMZ, ULTA and VSCO are up sharply too.
Treasury yields are up ~2bp across the curve while the US Dollar Index is around unchanged. Today’s data will be released after the open. The PCE update is normally a big deal but since its September’s reading (due to shutdown) it likely won’t matter much. Univ. of Michigan sentiment will be out later as well. Employment data painted a stronger picture of the labor market yesterday. A sharp decline in Challenger job cuts was followed by claims data falling versus last week (from 218k to 191k).
European equites are trading higher led by Germany again which is pacing the region for the week. Factory orders rose by more than expected, helping push equities higher. Autos are strong across the continent as tailwinds continued from the President Trump announcing rollbacks of efficiency standards in the US. There’s also been some substantial geopolitical/global security news. Trump issued a new national security strategy that, among other things, calls for an end to NATO expansion. The Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy will be issued soon and follow-up on the new strategy. Reports are also out that the US is setting a 2027 deadline for Europe to take over the majority of NATO capabilities.
After rising sharply on Thursday Japan closed out the week by giving back some of those gains overnight. October Household spending missed estimates. Bloomberg reported the BOJ is ready to hike rates in December, underscoring increasingly Hawkish narratives. That further strengthened the yen against the dollar. China’s markets ended the day and week higher. Moore Threads, aka China’s Nvidia, gained a modest 425% in its Shanghai IPO yesterday, raising ~$1B. It was the second largest mainland IPO of the year. Looks like the Chinese GPU IPO window is open. Speaking of, Baidu is reported to be looking at a Hong Kong IPO for its AI chip unit, Kunlunxin.
Over in commodities crude is slightly lower while nat gas is up 4%. Precious metals are higher and silver’s strength has returned after a few days of declines. Bitcoin and ETH are down 1-2%, with Bitcoin back to ~$90k and falling below its 20d ma.
Earnings:
After-the-Close (Thrs): CHPT, DOCU, DOMO, HPE, IDT, IOT, RBRK, S, SFIX, SWBI, ULTA, ZUMZ
Before-the-Open: VSCO
Economic Data:
US:
Global:
The S&P 500 finished slightly positive yesterday after a last minute rally, trying to look busy before the 102nd Annual NYSE Tree Lighting. Congrats to all my colleagues that put the extravaganza together. Yesterday’s gain made it 8 out of the past 9 days in the green. Small caps outperformed with the Russell adding 0.8%. Treasury yields rose 3-5bp after solid employment data. S&P futures have been in another tight range this morning and slid around 8:30am, though they are currently trying to get green again.
Big M&A news today as Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Bros. for $72B in cash and stock. Reports of a deal for the company have been out there for a while, with multiple suitors taking turns as likely buyers. The deal would reshape the media landscape but is also likely to attract strong anti-trust scrutiny, especially since the HBO Max streaming service would be under Netflix’s banner. I just want to be able to watch Season 3 of House of the Dragon. Reactions to tech earnings last night have not been favorable. HPE, S, DOCU are all down 5-10% in the pre-market. HPE was the latest to highlight rising memory costs. On the other hand, RBRK is seeing a solid reaction in the pre-market, while apparel/consumer names ZUMZ, ULTA and VSCO are up sharply too.
Treasury yields are up ~2bp across the curve while the US Dollar Index is around unchanged. Today’s data will be released after the open. The PCE update is normally a big deal but since its September’s reading (due to shutdown) it likely won’t matter much. Univ. of Michigan sentiment will be out later as well. Employment data painted a stronger picture of the labor market yesterday. A sharp decline in Challenger job cuts was followed by claims data falling versus last week (from 218k to 191k).
- US 2yr +2bps to 3.54%, 5yr +2bps to 3.69%, 10yr +2bps to 4.12%, 30yr +2bps to 4.78%
- USD index: -$0.03 to $98.93
European equites are trading higher led by Germany again which is pacing the region for the week. Factory orders rose by more than expected, helping push equities higher. Autos are strong across the continent as tailwinds continued from the President Trump announcing rollbacks of efficiency standards in the US. There’s also been some substantial geopolitical/global security news. Trump issued a new national security strategy that, among other things, calls for an end to NATO expansion. The Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy will be issued soon and follow-up on the new strategy. Reports are also out that the US is setting a 2027 deadline for Europe to take over the majority of NATO capabilities.
After rising sharply on Thursday Japan closed out the week by giving back some of those gains overnight. October Household spending missed estimates. Bloomberg reported the BOJ is ready to hike rates in December, underscoring increasingly Hawkish narratives. That further strengthened the yen against the dollar. China’s markets ended the day and week higher. Moore Threads, aka China’s Nvidia, gained a modest 425% in its Shanghai IPO yesterday, raising ~$1B. It was the second largest mainland IPO of the year. Looks like the Chinese GPU IPO window is open. Speaking of, Baidu is reported to be looking at a Hong Kong IPO for its AI chip unit, Kunlunxin.
Over in commodities crude is slightly lower while nat gas is up 4%. Precious metals are higher and silver’s strength has returned after a few days of declines. Bitcoin and ETH are down 1-2%, with Bitcoin back to ~$90k and falling below its 20d ma.
Earnings:
After-the-Close (Thrs): CHPT, DOCU, DOMO, HPE, IDT, IOT, RBRK, S, SFIX, SWBI, ULTA, ZUMZ
Before-the-Open: VSCO
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00am PCE (Sept)
- 10:00am Personal Income/Spending
- 10:00am Univ Michigan Sentiment
- 1:00pm Rig Count
- 3:00pm Consumer Credit
Global:
- India Rate Decision: 25bp cut as expected
- Japan Household Spending y.y (Oct): -3.0% vs. 1.0% cons., prior 1.8%
- Germany Factory Orders (Oct) m.m: 1.5% vs. 0.5% cons., prior 2.0%
- France Industrial Production (Oct) m.m: 0.2% vs. -0.3% cons., prior 0.7%
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