STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/05/26 (a/o 2:15 pm)
DOW 49,265 (+323), S&P 500 7,261 (+60), Russell 2000 2,836 (+40), NYSE FANG+ 8,541 (+212), ICE Brent Crude $110.18/barrel (-$4.26), Gold $4,571/oz (+$38), Bitcoin ~81.3k (+1067)
- Happy Cinco de Mayo
- Equities higher - No news is good news
- Solid breadth, most sectors higher
- Crude reversing, yields lower
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- X Las Vegas: SHRM Chief Brand and Marketing Officer Tina Beaty
- ETF Central: Red Panda Founder & CEO Ian Dunlap
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The Knicks continued their prolific stretch of basketball with their Game 1 win over the 76ers yesterday. Equities, meanwhile, had some difficulty setting up their offense. Iran hostilities flared up but didn’t ignite. General Caine and Secretary of War Hegseth said missile launches and infrastructure strikes didn't reach the threshold of violating the ceasefire, but it did enough to rattle markets a little. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% but finished off its lows. The equal-weight and Russell lagged. Crude jumped 5%, applying pressure on equities, as did a backup in yields.
Today we’re seeing strength in equities, in celebration of the Knicks win and Cinco de Mayo, but also due to what didn’t happen in Iran overnight- no escalation, no responses. That lack of activity pushed oil prices lower and yields eased a bit from yesterday’s sharp move higher. The latest risk assessment from Hapag-Lloyd maintained its policy of avoiding transiting the Strait of Hormuz, however, highlighting the challenges that remain for global markets.
The S&P is near session highs, up just under 1% with the equal-weight inline as small caps outperforming. Most sectors are higher and Value is getting the better of Growth. There’s mixed performance across high-beta, retail/thematic areas like Quantum computing (mixed), Space (lower), neoclouds/data centers (higher), and genomics (lower).
There’s a cyclical tilt to the leaderboard today with Materials, Tech and Industrials at the top. Chemical names are higher on the back of DuPont’s earnings, which is seeing the stock up 8%, while miners are higher on the strength in metals. Freight names are seeing a modest bounce after yesterday’s Amazon-triggered selloff. Rockwell Automation is up over 10% following its earnings, helping to lift other Industrial names. Construction firm Sterling Infrastructure is up ~50% after its earnings. Management anticipates current data center demand will continue for the foreseeable future, while also wishing the company had 2.000 or 3,000 more electricians to grow even faster. Semis are powering Tech as the NYSE Semis Index gains ~5%. Intel is up over 10% on news Apple was looking at alternative chip manufacturers and memory/storage are also strong. Software is mixed, with Palantir down over 5% post-earnings. Service Now is down modestly despite updating projected 2030 revenue of >$30B, ahead of previous estimates. Staying with the AI theme, we had another release from Anthropic of new financial services/insurance agents. That’s pressuring financial data firms and some of the insurance brokers and putting the Financial sector at the bottom of the performance list today.
The commodity complex is very much the opposite of yesterday’s session with energy moving lower and the metals complex recouping some of yesterday’s losses. Gold is bouncing around $4500. Copper tested its 50/100d ma yesterday and has bounced today back over $6. Ag is down modestly.
Bitcoin and Ether are continuing their strength since April. Political tailwinds are blowing as Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act. Bank organizations commented that the latest update “falls short” of protecting bank deposits, but the senators said, “We respectfully agree to disagree.” The Senate Banking Committee is targeting mid-May to get the bill marked up with a full Senate vote possible in June/July. On Polymarket the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 is ~63% up from 45% last week.
Crypto platform Bullish (+10%) announced it would buy global transfer agent Equiniti for ~$4.2B as it pushes into tokenization. Coinbase (-4%) has erased earlier gains, announcing it will look to cut up to 14% of its workforce with CEO Brian Armstrong saying, "We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native."
Yields are down 2-3bp across the curve, taking back some of yesterday’s sharp backup in rates. The US Dollar Index is about flat.
- US 2yr -2bps to 3.94%, 5yr -2bps to 4.07%, 10yr -3bps to 4.42%, 30yr -3bps to 4.99%
- USD index: +$0.05 to $98.32
ISM Services for April fell slightly from March and was essentially in line with consensus. The March Trade Deficit was larger than expected. While Activity rose, New Orders fell from 60.6 to 53.5. Prices were unchanged but remained above 70.
JOLTS Job Openings fell from last month but were above consensus. Layoffs and Discharges stepped up from the low level of prior months but remained within the range of the past 3 years.
New Home Sales for March rose from February, continuing to climb off of January’s low print. Homebuilders are seeing solid gains across the board today.
Japan, China and South Korea were all closed for holiday making for a quiet overnight session. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bps to 4.35% but signaled it could hit the pause button for a couple of months. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell for the second consecutive day but did end off session lows. Most European indices were higher recouping yesterday’s losses. Yields at the front end of the curve in the region pulled back modestly. However, the UK was an outlier after re-opening from holiday. Local yields moved sharply higher across the curve amidst political uncertainty around the Labour Party potentially seeing big losses in the upcoming election. The FTSE 100 is down >1% with financials selling off after HSBC results. Consumer stocks were also under pressure.
Let's Go Knicks!
Earnings:
Pre-Market: AEP, ADM, BALL, CMI, DOCN, DRS, DUK, DD, ETN, ENR, FISV, GFS, GPK, HII, HOG, HSIC, IT, IQV, KBR, LDOS, MPC, PFE, PYPL, RACE, ROK, RVTY, SHOP, STNG, TDG, ULS, VAC, WAT, WEC, WLK
After Market: AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Pre-Market (Wed): APO, BCO, BWA, CDW, CLH, CVS, DIS, EXC, GPN, JCI, KHC, KMT MAR, NRG, NYT, OC, SN, SR, UBER, YOU
After-Market (Wed): ALB, APA, APP, ARM, ATO, AXON, BKD, BROS, CAPL, CF, CMP, CW, CXT, CODI, COHR, CPK, DASH, ES, FTNT, GNK, GT, HCI, HLI, HRB, HST, KTOS, MET, MUR, NVST, OBDC, PAYC, PRI, PTC. QGEN, RYN, O, TKO, TPL, WBD, WES, WHR, WTS, ZG
Economic Data:
US:
- Trade Balance: -$60.3B vs. -$60.5B cons. prior -$57.3B
- S&P Services PMI (final): 51.0 vs flash 51.3
- ISM Services: 53.6 vs 53.7 cons, prior 54.0
- JOLTS Job Openings: 6866k vs 6840k cons, prior 6922k
- New Home Sales (March): 682k vs 650k cons, prior 587k
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
Global:
- Reserve Bank of Australia hikes by 25bps to 4.35%
- Spain Unemployment: -62.7k vs. -18.6k cons., prior -22.9k
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 5/5/2026 (a/o 9:00am)
Happy Cinco De Mayo,
Yesterday, the durability of the ceasefire was in drawn into question following a strike against the UAE. One thing that was never in question was a Game 1 victory for the New York Knicks who won by 39pts. US equity markets moved modestly lower as oil prices and Treasury yields tested recent highs.
The rally in futures this morning is mostly about what didn’t happen as there was no escalation or response by the US. Futures pushed to session highs this morning as General Caine said the Iran attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations something echoed by Secretary of War Hegseth. S&P futures are up 0.5% recouping pretty much all of yesterday’s losses while the R2K is up >0.75%. Oil prices are down >2% and which is also helping yields pull back a couple of bps.
The only economic data ahead of the open was trade balance which was about inline with expectations. However, there is some impactful data out after the open with ISM services and the JOLTS job opening at 10:00. Treasury yields are down between 1-3bps with the 30yr still holding just above 5%. The USD index is modestly higher. The Yen intervention has been the big story in currencies over the last week it is giving back some of the recent gains down ~0.4% vs. the USD at ~157.75¥/$.
Government Yields
Japan, China and South Korea were all closed for holiday making for a quiet overnight session. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bps to 4.35% but signaled it could hit the pause button for a couple of months. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell for the second consecutive day but did end off session lows. Most European indices are moving higher recouping yesterday’s losses. Yields at the front end of the curve in the region are also pulling back modestly. However, the UK is the outlier after re-opening from holiday. The FTSE 100 is down >1% with financials selling off after HSBC results. Consumer stocks are also under pressure. Local yields are moving sharply higher up >10bps across the curve amidst political uncertainty as concern grows that the Labour Party could see big losses in the upcoming election.
The commodity complex is very much the opposite of yesterday’s session with energy moving lower and the metals complex recouping some of yesterday’s losses. Copper continues its recent outperformance up >2%. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto rallied yesterday after Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act. Last night bank organizations released a statement saying this “falls short” of protecting bank deposits but the senators said, “We respectfully agree to disagree.” The Senate Banking Committee is targeting mid-May to get the bill marked up with a full Senate vote possible in June/July. On Polymarket the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 is ~63% up from 45% last week. There have also been a couple of big headlines in the space this morning. Bullish (+2%) announced it would buy global transfer agent, Equiniti for ~$4.2B. Coinbase (+3%) announced it will look to cut up to 14% of its workforce with CEO Brian Armstrong saying, "We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native." Bitcoin is up >1.5% trading ~81.6k hitting the highest level since late January.
It is another very busy day of earnings which are generally looking pretty solid. Within industrials ROK and CMI are a couple of positive standouts. Software outperformed yesterday, overnight Palantir had solid results, but the stock is modestly lower. Service Now (+1.5%) projected 2030 revenue of >$30B ahead of previous estimates. FIS (+3%) is trading higher as the company is working with Anthropic to develop AI tools for banks. Intel (+4%) continues to surge on reports that it is in discussions with Apple to produce main processors for its devices.
Earnings:
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Pre-Market (Tues): AEP, ADM, BALL, CMI, DOCN, DRS, DUK, DD, ETN, ENR, FISV, GFS, GPK, HII, HOG, HSIC, IT, IQV, KBR, LDOS, MPC, PFE, PYPL, RACE, ROK, RVTY, SHOP, STNG, TDG, ULS, VAC, WAT, WEC, WLK
After Market (Tues): AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday, the durability of the ceasefire was in drawn into question following a strike against the UAE. One thing that was never in question was a Game 1 victory for the New York Knicks who won by 39pts. US equity markets moved modestly lower as oil prices and Treasury yields tested recent highs.
The rally in futures this morning is mostly about what didn’t happen as there was no escalation or response by the US. Futures pushed to session highs this morning as General Caine said the Iran attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations something echoed by Secretary of War Hegseth. S&P futures are up 0.5% recouping pretty much all of yesterday’s losses while the R2K is up >0.75%. Oil prices are down >2% and which is also helping yields pull back a couple of bps.
The only economic data ahead of the open was trade balance which was about inline with expectations. However, there is some impactful data out after the open with ISM services and the JOLTS job opening at 10:00. Treasury yields are down between 1-3bps with the 30yr still holding just above 5%. The USD index is modestly higher. The Yen intervention has been the big story in currencies over the last week it is giving back some of the recent gains down ~0.4% vs. the USD at ~157.75¥/$.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -3bps to 3.93%, 5yr -3bps to 4.07%, 10yr -2bps to 4.42%, 30yr -1bps to 5.01%
- USD index: +$0.01 to $98.28
Japan, China and South Korea were all closed for holiday making for a quiet overnight session. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bps to 4.35% but signaled it could hit the pause button for a couple of months. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell for the second consecutive day but did end off session lows. Most European indices are moving higher recouping yesterday’s losses. Yields at the front end of the curve in the region are also pulling back modestly. However, the UK is the outlier after re-opening from holiday. The FTSE 100 is down >1% with financials selling off after HSBC results. Consumer stocks are also under pressure. Local yields are moving sharply higher up >10bps across the curve amidst political uncertainty as concern grows that the Labour Party could see big losses in the upcoming election.
The commodity complex is very much the opposite of yesterday’s session with energy moving lower and the metals complex recouping some of yesterday’s losses. Copper continues its recent outperformance up >2%. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto rallied yesterday after Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act. Last night bank organizations released a statement saying this “falls short” of protecting bank deposits but the senators said, “We respectfully agree to disagree.” The Senate Banking Committee is targeting mid-May to get the bill marked up with a full Senate vote possible in June/July. On Polymarket the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 is ~63% up from 45% last week. There have also been a couple of big headlines in the space this morning. Bullish (+2%) announced it would buy global transfer agent, Equiniti for ~$4.2B. Coinbase (+3%) announced it will look to cut up to 14% of its workforce with CEO Brian Armstrong saying, "We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native." Bitcoin is up >1.5% trading ~81.6k hitting the highest level since late January.
It is another very busy day of earnings which are generally looking pretty solid. Within industrials ROK and CMI are a couple of positive standouts. Software outperformed yesterday, overnight Palantir had solid results, but the stock is modestly lower. Service Now (+1.5%) projected 2030 revenue of >$30B ahead of previous estimates. FIS (+3%) is trading higher as the company is working with Anthropic to develop AI tools for banks. Intel (+4%) continues to surge on reports that it is in discussions with Apple to produce main processors for its devices.
Earnings:
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Pre-Market (Tues): AEP, ADM, BALL, CMI, DOCN, DRS, DUK, DD, ETN, ENR, FISV, GFS, GPK, HII, HOG, HSIC, IT, IQV, KBR, LDOS, MPC, PFE, PYPL, RACE, ROK, RVTY, SHOP, STNG, TDG, ULS, VAC, WAT, WEC, WLK
After Market (Tues): AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Economic Data:
US:
- Trade Balance: : -$60.3B vs. -$60.5B cons. prior -$57.3B
- 9:45 S&P Services PMI (final)
- 10:00 ISM Services
- 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings
- 10:00 New Home Sales
- 12:30 Fed Barr
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
- Reserve Bank of Australia hikes by 25bps to 4.35%
- Spain Unemployment: -62.7k vs. -18.6k cons., prior -22.9k
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