STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/28/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,566 (-263), S&P 500 7,697 (-46), Russell 2000 2,826 (-12), NYSE FANG+ 19,115 (-219), ICE Brent Crude $105.22/barrel (+$0.90), Gold $4,168/oz (-$153), Bitcoin ~83.9k (+69)
- Nuclear standoff
- Rates, oil driving equities...still
- OpenAI, MLB playoffs, NHL openers tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 556: Blue Yonder CSO Saskia van Gendt on Sustainability as a Supply Chain Superpower
- ETF Central: ETF Focus Partners Wealth Senior Wealth Advisor Adam Yofan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rise 8.7% Annually, but Rate of Growth Is Sharply Slowing
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Last week was a dynamic, headline-driven week. Geopolitics were at the forefront with the UNGA in NYC, President Xi visiting the White House and Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, the rise of AI agents put a bid in chips and other hardware/infrastructure stocks, while adding a new twist on the AI disruption trade weighing on financials and online travel companies. The S&P 500 ended the week up just over 1% though breadth was poor with the equal-weight, small and midcap indices ending modestly lower. This has been a consistent dynamic since rates started moving higher at the end of August following Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Over that time 2yr yields are up ~65bps while 10yr yields are up ~50bps. The S&P 500 is essentially unchanged while other indices are down ~5%.
Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran’s most recent proposal. November Brent traded above $108. The two-headed monster of higher oil and yields continued to weigh on equities to begin the week. The S&P 500 opened down 0.3% and got as low as -1% before bouncing. Around noon came a lot of conflicting reports around the current state of Iran negotiations, which appear to remain at at a standstill around the nuclear issue.
Oil has pulled back from its highs but that has only been a modest help to equities. The S&P 500 is currently down ~0.5%, with the equal-weight about in line. Small caps were lagging but have gotten back to inline. Mega cap tech is lower, with Meta giving back some recent gains in particular.
Consumer Staples, Energy and Healthcare are the only sectors higher currently. Big Box retailers are leading Staples higher. The E&P majors are holding up Energy as most of the sector trades lower. In Healthcare Biotech (some +ve clinical results) is higher and the Tools group is continuing its strength.
Comm Services is lagging with META giving back 4% after its run-up, and before OpenAI announces possible agentic news tomorrow. Netflix is down 3%. Consumer Discretionary is lagging too, with autos down 2-3% and AI agent disruption continuing to impact select stocks (DASH -7%, CVNA -8%).
Tech stocks were under pressure in the pre-market as security concerns were back in focus after Open AI reportedly paused training of its latest model related to rogue agents. The company’s DevDay will generate a lot of focus tomorrow, especially on the heels of Meta’s 25% gain this month and the excitement / latest fill-in-the-blank-pocolypse that its Muse AI agent produced. There’s speculation that OpenAI will unveil its own personal Agent. This morning Nvidia made a move in AI Safety, announcing the launch of Nvidia Open Agent Safety Platform, which hopefully helps keep these precocious new AIs in the sandbox and not hacking government sites. The company also announced it was increasing its buyback by $150B, to $235B. That could also be weighing on the group, as those dollars can't be deployed by Nvidia back into the AI ecosystem. Cybersecurity names are a standout to the upside with NVDA's safety platform keeping the focus on the group. Neoclouds and optical networking are among the weaker groups, as are chip names overall.
There’s not much on the calendar today. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing index fell from last week, similar to the general trend from this month’s other regional reports. However New Orders rose and Unfilled Orders jumped, which is what we noted in last week’s flash Manufacturing PMI. The outlook for new orders fell slightly and prices were mixed but still high.
Yields continue to move up and are back near their HOD after bouncing around on several Iran headlines. The USD index has followed rates higher. Fed Governor Cook spoke this afternoon about AI’s impact on inflation, labor and the economy overall, saying she anticipates that “productivity gains will provide modest disinflation within the next few years. However, I do not expect those effects to arrive in time to offset the broadening inflationary pressure later this year.”
- US 2yr +7bps to 4.93%, 5yr +8bps to 5.07%, 10yr +8bps to 5.24%, 30yr +7bps to 5.56%
- USD index: +$0.51 to $101.22
Global markets were mixed overnight with the rise in oil/yields weighing on sentiment. Tech- heavy indices in Asia closed lower. South Korea fell nearly 3% with the memory giants down ~5%. The Nikkei fell nearly 1% with broad weakness, though financials closed modestly higher. Local yields continued to march higher though the yen was unchanged versus the Dollar after swinging between gains and losses.
Mainland China was lower with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 2%. China’s YTD industrial profits fell to 15.7% from 17.6% in August. The US and China published the details of a “30 for 30” list of $30B of products recommended for reduced tariffs- important but not as compelling as ESPN’s series. US goods covered under the agreement include agriculture, lumber, cosmetics and med devices. Chinese goods include consumer appliances, toys and car seats. China would also import 10ml metric tons of US coal. The Hang Seng bucked the weakness closing up 0.5%. Hong Kong was higher.
European indices ended around flat and at their worst levels as markets closed before crude turned lower around noon in NYC. Yields continued to rise, however. Swiss press reported that at least eight financial institutions are interested in a possible merger with UBS.
ICE Brent is higher but off its peak today as back and forth headlines push prices around. US natural gas is down 6%, unable to hold its 200d ma, but EU gas bounced higher after approaching €70.The precious metals complex is under significant pressure with yields continuing to climb and the Dollar stronger. Gold and silver both broke decisively below their respective 50d ma’s, down 4-5% each. Ag is also under pressure. Crypto has pulled back from overnight highs and both Bitcoin and Ether are trading flat.
Earnings tonight/tomorrow from MTN, KMX and CCL will provide the latest look and consumer spending. OpenAIs conference will be closely watched, and JOLTS will be the main data release, along with Home Prices, Consumer Confidence and more Fed Speak. Yanks, hockey too.
Earnings:
- After-Market: IDT, JEF, MTN
- Pre-Market (Tues): KMX, CCL, UEC
- After-Market (Tues): AIR, CNXC
Economic Data:
US:
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing: 9.8 vs prior 11.6
Global:
- China Industrial Profits YTD (y.y): 15.7% vs prior 17.6%
- India Industrial Production: 8% y.y vs 6.5% cons., prior 7.4%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 9/28/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Last week was a dynamic headline driven week. Geopolitics were at the forefront with the UNGA in NYC, President Xi visiting the White House and Iran negotiations. The other focal point was the rise of AI agents which helped keep a bid in chips and other AI hardware/infrastructure stocks but also brought with it a new twist on the AI disruption trade weighing on financials and online travel companies. The S&P 500 ended the week up just over 1% though breadth was poor with the equal-weight and small and midcap indices ending the week modestly lower. This has been a consistent dynamic since rates started moving higher at the end of August following Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Over that time 2yr yields are up ~65bps while 10yr yields are up ~50bps. The S&P 500 is essentially unchanged while other indices are down ~5% (see chart below).
US futures have been under pressure overnight as rates and oil prices continue to move higher. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran’s most recent proposal though this morning there are reports that mediators are expected to meet with US/Iran officials again early this week. Those headlines along with reports that Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline has resumed oil exports have helped oil prices pullback modestly from the overnight high, currently up ~2%. This is pushing Treasury yields up ~5bps across the curved reversing much of Friday’s pullback. Tech stocks are under pressure in the pre-market as security concerns are back in focus with Open AI reportedly pausing training of its latest model related to rogue agents. The company has its Open AI Dev Day tomorrow with speculation that it will unveil its own personal Agent to compete with Muse. Speaking of rogue agents, this morning Nvidia (+2%) announced it is launching the Nvidia Open Agent Safety Platform which Jensen Huang said will keep those agents in their sandbox and from misbehaving. The stock moved higher after the company announced that it is increasing its buyback by $150B to $235B and there are also reports that it is considering increasing its investment in Anthropic. These headlines and the pullback in oil prices have helped futures bounce off the lows. S&P futures are down ~0.35% while Dow and Russell futures are off ~0.5%.
The only economic data on the calendar today is Dallas manufacturing after the open. There a couple of Fed speakers throughout the day. Yields are moving higher driven primarily by oil up ~5bps. The USD index is modestly higher trading just under last week’s ~$101.
Global markets were mixed overnight with the rise in oil/yields weighing on sentiment. Tech heavy indices in Asia closed lower. South Korea was off nearly 3% with the memory giants down ~5%. The Nikkei fell nearly 1% the weakness was pretty broad based though financials closed modestly higher. Local yields continue to march higher. The currency fell overnight as officials continue to threaten additional intervention. Local markets in China were lower with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 2%. The US and China published the details of a “30 for 30” list of $30B of products recommended for reduced tariffs, not to be confused with the ESPN documentary series. US goods covered under the agreement include ag, lumber, cosmetics and med devices. Impacted China imports include consumer appliances, toys and car seats. In addition, China will import 10ml metric tons of US coal. China’s industrial profits fell to 15.7% from 17.6% in August. The Hang Seng bucked the weakness closing up 0.5%. European indices are holding on to modest gains with energy, staples and retail outperforming. The FTSE 100 is outperforming up 0.5%. The government announced a new plan to help first time home buyers helping home builders.
ICE Brent is up ~2% but about $2 off the morning highs. US nat gas prices are down ~3% giving back some of last week’s gains. The precious metals complex is under significant pressure breaking below recent lows. Gold and silver are both decisively breaking below their respective 50d ma’s down 3% and 5%, respectively. Ag is also under pressure. Crypto has pulled back from overnight highs about where things left off on Friday.
Economic Data:
US:
Last week was a dynamic headline driven week. Geopolitics were at the forefront with the UNGA in NYC, President Xi visiting the White House and Iran negotiations. The other focal point was the rise of AI agents which helped keep a bid in chips and other AI hardware/infrastructure stocks but also brought with it a new twist on the AI disruption trade weighing on financials and online travel companies. The S&P 500 ended the week up just over 1% though breadth was poor with the equal-weight and small and midcap indices ending the week modestly lower. This has been a consistent dynamic since rates started moving higher at the end of August following Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Over that time 2yr yields are up ~65bps while 10yr yields are up ~50bps. The S&P 500 is essentially unchanged while other indices are down ~5% (see chart below).
US futures have been under pressure overnight as rates and oil prices continue to move higher. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran’s most recent proposal though this morning there are reports that mediators are expected to meet with US/Iran officials again early this week. Those headlines along with reports that Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline has resumed oil exports have helped oil prices pullback modestly from the overnight high, currently up ~2%. This is pushing Treasury yields up ~5bps across the curved reversing much of Friday’s pullback. Tech stocks are under pressure in the pre-market as security concerns are back in focus with Open AI reportedly pausing training of its latest model related to rogue agents. The company has its Open AI Dev Day tomorrow with speculation that it will unveil its own personal Agent to compete with Muse. Speaking of rogue agents, this morning Nvidia (+2%) announced it is launching the Nvidia Open Agent Safety Platform which Jensen Huang said will keep those agents in their sandbox and from misbehaving. The stock moved higher after the company announced that it is increasing its buyback by $150B to $235B and there are also reports that it is considering increasing its investment in Anthropic. These headlines and the pullback in oil prices have helped futures bounce off the lows. S&P futures are down ~0.35% while Dow and Russell futures are off ~0.5%.
The only economic data on the calendar today is Dallas manufacturing after the open. There a couple of Fed speakers throughout the day. Yields are moving higher driven primarily by oil up ~5bps. The USD index is modestly higher trading just under last week’s ~$101.
- US 2yr +5bps to 4.91%, 5yr +5bps to 5.04%, 10yr +5bps to 5.21%, 30yr +3bps to 5.52%
- USD index: +$0.19 to $100.90
Global markets were mixed overnight with the rise in oil/yields weighing on sentiment. Tech heavy indices in Asia closed lower. South Korea was off nearly 3% with the memory giants down ~5%. The Nikkei fell nearly 1% the weakness was pretty broad based though financials closed modestly higher. Local yields continue to march higher. The currency fell overnight as officials continue to threaten additional intervention. Local markets in China were lower with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 2%. The US and China published the details of a “30 for 30” list of $30B of products recommended for reduced tariffs, not to be confused with the ESPN documentary series. US goods covered under the agreement include ag, lumber, cosmetics and med devices. Impacted China imports include consumer appliances, toys and car seats. In addition, China will import 10ml metric tons of US coal. China’s industrial profits fell to 15.7% from 17.6% in August. The Hang Seng bucked the weakness closing up 0.5%. European indices are holding on to modest gains with energy, staples and retail outperforming. The FTSE 100 is outperforming up 0.5%. The government announced a new plan to help first time home buyers helping home builders.
ICE Brent is up ~2% but about $2 off the morning highs. US nat gas prices are down ~3% giving back some of last week’s gains. The precious metals complex is under significant pressure breaking below recent lows. Gold and silver are both decisively breaking below their respective 50d ma’s down 3% and 5%, respectively. Ag is also under pressure. Crypto has pulled back from overnight highs about where things left off on Friday.
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:30 Dallas Manufacturing
- 1:30 Fed Barkin
- China Industrial Profits: 15.7% y/y prior 17.6%
- India Industrial Production: 8% y.y vs.7.4% cons., prior 6.5%
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