STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 6/15/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
The sun is shining extra bright in NYC especially for a Monday morning commute after the New York Knicks won their first championship since the Dark Side of the Moon was released. It was a playoff run for the ages with the comeback kids winning every game in the NBA finals after overcoming double digit deficits. The weekend was full of notable events including a dominant win by the men’s US World Cup team, the Carolina Hurricanes winning the NHL championship, and President Trump celebrating his 80th B-day watching an exciting UFC card on the White House lawn hours after announcing that the US and Iran would sign a peace deal later this week.
Press reports suggesting that agreement was in the works helped US equity markets move higher last week as oil prices fell for the third week in the last four and Treasury yields backed off despite the elevated inflation readings. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.6%. It was another very busy week of tech headlines, but the sector was mixed with semis rebounding sharply +~10% however, software was under pressure again falling ~5%. Beyond tech there was pretty broad-based strength with the equal-weight S&P 500 up nearly 2% while other small/midcap indices were up 2% - 4%.
Markets are extending to the upside this morning as traders celebrate and the peace deal framework (and of course the Knicks win). US equity futures are up >1% with S&P futures within 0.5% of the all-time high.
Oil prices are falling ~5% with ICE Brent breaking below its 100d ma ($86.30) currently trading ~$83 just above the April lows. On his own birthday, President Trump delivered a gift to his incoming Fed Chairman before his first policy meeting. Treasury yields are pulling back again as markets continue to reprice Fed/inflation expectations. Yields are down 2-5bps across the curve but are a couple of basis points off the overnight lows. Thus far markets are shrugging off news that the government issued an export control directive causing Anthropic to suspend access to its Fable and Mythos 5 models. The Dollar is also weaker. Just ahead of the open industrial production and capacity utilization will be released followed by the NAHB Housing Index at 10:00.
A Media merger Monday is getting lost in the all the jubilation after News Corp announced it was buying ROKU in a $22B deal. Also, Paramount Skydance’s deal for Warner Bros. Discovery received regulatory approval.
Global markets rallied overnight. European indices are trading up around 1% except for the FTSE where sharp declines in energy-linked names weigh on the index. Financials and Industrials are broadly higher. Tech heavy indices in Asia outperformed with both the Kospi and Nikkei ending up >5%. In Japan, ahead of this week’s BOJ rate decision, Kioxia rose 12%, Samsung 10%, Tokyo Electron +7%.
Brent crude has fallen below its 100d ma after tagging it on Friday’s weakness. Precious metals are sharply higher on the oil and yield moves, with gold making a run back toward its 200d ma (~$4444). Copper is modestly higher. Ag is mixed with wheat and corn lower while soy is modestly higher. Crypto is seeing strong gains as Bitcoin breaks back above $65K and ETH continues to march back towards $1800. Strategy added $100M more bitcoin according to a disclosure today.
Earnings:
US:
The sun is shining extra bright in NYC especially for a Monday morning commute after the New York Knicks won their first championship since the Dark Side of the Moon was released. It was a playoff run for the ages with the comeback kids winning every game in the NBA finals after overcoming double digit deficits. The weekend was full of notable events including a dominant win by the men’s US World Cup team, the Carolina Hurricanes winning the NHL championship, and President Trump celebrating his 80th B-day watching an exciting UFC card on the White House lawn hours after announcing that the US and Iran would sign a peace deal later this week.
Press reports suggesting that agreement was in the works helped US equity markets move higher last week as oil prices fell for the third week in the last four and Treasury yields backed off despite the elevated inflation readings. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.6%. It was another very busy week of tech headlines, but the sector was mixed with semis rebounding sharply +~10% however, software was under pressure again falling ~5%. Beyond tech there was pretty broad-based strength with the equal-weight S&P 500 up nearly 2% while other small/midcap indices were up 2% - 4%.
Markets are extending to the upside this morning as traders celebrate and the peace deal framework (and of course the Knicks win). US equity futures are up >1% with S&P futures within 0.5% of the all-time high.
Oil prices are falling ~5% with ICE Brent breaking below its 100d ma ($86.30) currently trading ~$83 just above the April lows. On his own birthday, President Trump delivered a gift to his incoming Fed Chairman before his first policy meeting. Treasury yields are pulling back again as markets continue to reprice Fed/inflation expectations. Yields are down 2-5bps across the curve but are a couple of basis points off the overnight lows. Thus far markets are shrugging off news that the government issued an export control directive causing Anthropic to suspend access to its Fable and Mythos 5 models. The Dollar is also weaker. Just ahead of the open industrial production and capacity utilization will be released followed by the NAHB Housing Index at 10:00.
- US 2yr -5bps to 4.04%, 5yr -4bps to 4.17%, 10yr -4bps to 4.45%, 30yr -2bps to 4.95%
- USD index: -$0.26 to $99.23
A Media merger Monday is getting lost in the all the jubilation after News Corp announced it was buying ROKU in a $22B deal. Also, Paramount Skydance’s deal for Warner Bros. Discovery received regulatory approval.
Global markets rallied overnight. European indices are trading up around 1% except for the FTSE where sharp declines in energy-linked names weigh on the index. Financials and Industrials are broadly higher. Tech heavy indices in Asia outperformed with both the Kospi and Nikkei ending up >5%. In Japan, ahead of this week’s BOJ rate decision, Kioxia rose 12%, Samsung 10%, Tokyo Electron +7%.
Brent crude has fallen below its 100d ma after tagging it on Friday’s weakness. Precious metals are sharply higher on the oil and yield moves, with gold making a run back toward its 200d ma (~$4444). Copper is modestly higher. Ag is mixed with wheat and corn lower while soy is modestly higher. Crypto is seeing strong gains as Bitcoin breaks back above $65K and ETH continues to march back towards $1800. Strategy added $100M more bitcoin according to a disclosure today.
Earnings:
- After-Market: DOMO, PLAY
- Pre-Market (Tues): WLY
- After-Market (Tues): LZB
US:
- Empire State Manufacturing: 5.70 vs cons 14.0, prior 19.6
- 9:15 Industrial Production: vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.7%
- 9:15 Capacity Utilization: vs. 76.2% cons, prior 76.1%
- 10:00 NAHB Housing Market
- Germany wholesale prices: -0.6%/5.9% m.m./y.y vs. 0.8% cons,. prior 2%/6.3%
- EU Industrial Production: 0.1% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.4%
- India Inflation: 9.7% y/y vs. 9.1% cons., prior 8.3%
- India Trade Balance: -$28.2B vs. -$27B cons., prior -$28.4
- India Unemployment Rate: 5.5% vs. 5.3% cons., prior 5.2%
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