NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update

Good morning,
 
Yesterday was a very volatile session. After a round of resilient economic data futures recouped modest overnight losses with major indices opening around unchanged. Shortly after the open there was a very aggressive wave of selling in tech stocks but the rest of the tape held up pretty well. The S&P 500 briefly broke below 5,400 and the VIX almost hit 20 before a bid showed up and there was an aggressive reversal in tech names. At the lows, the NYSE FANG+ index was down nearly 2.5% while Nvidia was down 7% bringing its high-to-low drawdown to just under 25%. The rebound was equally as aggressive with NYSE FANG+ moved into positive territory while the S&P 500 rallied ~100pts (1.8%) off the lows. It looked like it could be a solid reversal day however, markets peaked ~1:00 and faded into the close reversing pretty much all of that rebound. The S&P 500 and NYSE FANG+ indices ended down ~0.5%, (S&P ~5,400). The equal-weight S&P 500 was up marginally while the Russell 2k continued its recent outperformance up 1.2%.
 
Ahead of the key inflation data in the US this morning, it was a mixed session overnight in Asia but very tame relative to the volatility seen throughout the week. After reversing sharply yesterday the trading in the Yen was also well contained. The Nikkei tried to bounce early but ended near session lows down ~0.5% bringing WTD losses to >5%. The news on the macro front was very quiet but earnings remained heavy. European indices opened around unchanged but moved higher throughout the session. S&P futures were modestly higher during the Asian session but rallied with European indices trading up ~0.8% above fair-value ahead of the data, Russell 2k futures were up ~1.25% but off the overnight high. All-in-all the data came in pretty much in line with estimates with PCE up 0.1% and core-PCE up 0.2% on a monthly basis and with the annual readings at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The latter was flat on a m/m basis but a tenth ahead of estimates. Coming in there was some concern that the numbers could be a touch hot after PCE within the Q2 GDP data came in ahead of expectations yesterday. There has been a muted response in equity futures which are at pre-data levels. However, yields have moved to the downside 2yr yields are down ~5bps while 10/30yr yields have also moved slightly lower down ~2bps. The USD index has pulled back from overnight highs down ~0.1% at ~$104 after failing at its 200d again (~104.20).  The Yen has started to rally more aggressively falling from 154.75 to ~153.75. The VIX is hovering around 17.50.
 
Commodities are mixed. ICE Brent also reversed sharply off the lows yesterday but is pulling back this morning down ~0.8% to $81.70. After getting hit hard yesterday precious metals are mixed. Gold is up ~1% trying to reclaim its 50d ~2,370. However, there is no bounce in silver which fell ~5% yesterday. Copper is slightly lower trying to hold its 200d. Ag is mostly lower. Crypto currencies are rallying ahead of the Bitcoin 2024 event this weekend. Bitcoin is up ~2% to 67.2k.
 
The reaction to earnings this morning is mixed leaning slightly positive, but I don’t think any of the reports are really shifting the broader narrative. Next week will be the busiest and probably most important week of the summer. Jensen Huang is scheduled to make an appearance Monday, it is the peak of earnings season with multiple mega-cap tech names reporting, there are key central bank rate decisions (BOE, BOJ and Fed) and the labor market data. Buckle up!
 
Earnings:
After-Market: ABCB, ACNB, AEYE, AJG, ALEX, ALSN, APPF, ASB, ATR, AVBH, BFST, BJRI, BKR, BY, BYD, CALB, CBFV, CBNK, CINF, COLB, COLM, COUR, CTO, CUBI, CUZ, DAIO, DECK, DLR, DRQ, DXCM, EBC, EBS, EGO, EIX, EKSO, EMN, ENSG, ERIE, EXPO, FBIN, FBIZ, FEIM, FFBC, FHI, FIBK, FINW, FISI, FLIC, FMAO, FRST, FSBW, FSUN, FVCB, FWRD, GLPI, GSIT, HIG, HOUS, HTBK, HTH, ISTR, JNPR, KNSL, LHX, LPLA, MBIN, MCBC, MGRC, MOFG, MPB, MSBI, MTX, NECB, NOV, NRIM, NSC, NVOS, OFLX, OLN, OPBK, OPOF, OPTT, ORC, PCB, PECO, PFBC, PFG, PFS, PVBC, RILY, ROG, RVSB, SAM, SAMG, SBCF, SHBI, SKX, SKYW, SON, SPSC, SRCE, SSNC, TBBK, TBNK, TFSL, TREE, TXRH, UCTT, ULH, USCB, UVE, VALE, VLTO, VRSN, WKC, WSBC, WSFS, WY, ZYXI
Pre-Market: AB, ABR, ACRE, AON, AVTR, B, BAH, BCPC, BEN, BMY, CHTR, CL, CNC, CPLP, CRI, DOC, EAF, FHB, GNTX, GRC, HHH, MIR, MMM, NWL, OPY, PIPR, POR, SAIA, STEL, SXT, TNET, TROW, VRTS, WT
 
Asia
Japan's Nikkei: -0.5% (-6.0% for the week)
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1% (-2.3% for the week)
China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% (-3.1% for the week)
India's Sensex: +1.6% (+0.9% for the week)
South Korea's Kospi: +0.8% (-2.3% for the week)
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7% (-0.7% for the week)
 
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: +0.5% (+0.2% week-to-date)
Germany's DAX: +0.3% (+1.0% week-to-date)
U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% (+1.0% week-to-date)
France's CAC 40: +0.8% (-0.7% week-to-date)
Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2% (-1.2% week-to-date)
Spain's IBEX 35: -0.4% (+0.2% week-to-date)
 
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:

• US 2yr -5bps to 4.40%, 5yr -4bps to 4.10%, 10yr -1bps to 4.22%, 30yr -1bps to 4.47%
• USD index: -$0.05 to $104.06
• Oil prices - ICE Brent: -0.8% to $81.74, WTI: -0.6% to $77.78, Nat Gas: -0.3% to $2.07
• Gold: +0.9% to $2,374.60, Silver: -0.2% to $27.93, Copper: -0.2% to $4.12
• Wheat: -0.4% to $5.59, Corn: -1.0% to $4.17, Soybeans: -1.2% to $10.67, Cotton: -1.0% to $0.68
• VIX: -0.93 to 17.53
• Bitcoin: +2.1% to ~67.2k

• ECB inflation 1/3yr expectations were unchanged at 2.8% and 2.3% respectively -

• US:
  • Personal Income: 0.2% vs. 0.3% cons., prior revised to 0.4% from 0.5%
  • Personal Spending: 0.3% vs. 0.3% cons,. Prior revised to 0.4% from 0.2%
  • PCE: 0.08%/2.5% m.m/y.y vs. 0.1%/2.5% cons., prior 0%/2.6%
  • Core-PCE: 0.18%/2.6% m.m/y.y vs. 0.2%/2.5% cons., prior 0.1%/2.6%
• Global
  • Japan Tokyo CPI: 2.2% prior 2.3%