NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Regional Lead, Northeast
January 21, 2025 at 2:50 p.m. EST
DOW 43,948 (+461), S&P 500 6,046 (+49), Russell 2000 2,316 (+40), NYSE FANG+ 13,452 (+184), ICE Brent Crude $79.14/barrel (-$1.03), Gold $2,759/oz (+$10), Bitcoin ~106.3k (+2808)
U.S. markets are higher coming back from a three-day weekend, as a new administration takes over and a new college football champion was crowned. The S&P 500 is trading up by about 0.7% gaining steam in the afternoon. The lack of a barrage of tariffs from President Trump on his first day back in office helped stocks at the open. Treasury yields ticked down across the curve except for the 2-year, which has moved steadily higher through the day. The U.S. Dollar index is lower by 1.2% after coming off its high for the day from the early morning. Bitcoin jumped to $109K but has since pulled back to around $105K this morning.
The S&P is looking to add to its 3% gain last week. The equal-weight and Russell both outperformed, adding 4% each. A downgrade to sell on Apple is taking the stock down 4% today but the rest of the market is shrugging off the move, including most of the mega-caps and tech space. The NYSE FANG+ index is up about 1.3%. Strength is broad-based as the S&P equal weight is up near 1% and the Russell 2000 has added 1.7%. Energy is the only sector in the red (barely) after Info Tech rallied into the green. E&P names are leading the sector lower following crude’s weakness and a focus from D.C. to ramp up production. As we head to print, news was breaking that President Trump will announce billions of dollars in private sector investment to build AI infrastructure in the U.S. Utilities and Industrials are leading, with defense particularly strong and investors liking 3M’s earnings update.
Markets were waiting to see what actions President Trump would take on Day One via Executive Orders (EO), especially regarding tariffs. Many EOs were targeted to immigration and border policy along with government spending (e.g. establishing The Department of Government Efficiency). Of the more immediately impactful for financial markets, President Trump discussed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting on February 1st, though we’re unaware of any specific order signed. Autos are holding up well on the news, helped by an upgrade for GM. The lack of definitive, universal tariffs at the jump, especially against China are a bit of a relief for the market. Instead the administration is looking to conduct broad analyses of trade policies. Energy policy was also prominent in the EOs, including developing Alaskan energy resources, a review of offshore wind policies, and a declaration of a national energy emergency, allowing for expediated permitting and construction of energy infrastructure.
Treasury yields have seen some volatility today. The belly and the long-end are down 3-5bp but 2-year has risen to 4.30% after starting the day around 4.25%. U.S. Dollar has also been volatile, falling to 108 on Monday before retracing that move later in the day. Today the index made a move to 109 but has sold off, heading back to 108.
Bent crude is down around 1% but off its lows as markets digest the energy-related executive orders. Gold is up modestly and copper is lower. It’s a light day on the economic calendar but The World Economic Forum in Davos has kicked off, so expect lots of talking from corporate and government leaders.
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields
- Equities higher following the long weekend
- Boost from lack of definitive tariffs at start of Trump Administration
- Quiet day for macro data
- Dollar volatile on tariff news flow
- 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors higher: Industrials lead, Energy lags
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House 453: Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy on Transforming AI & Powering the Data Cloud
- Inside the ICE House: Market Storylines
- ICE December Mortgage Monitor - Recent Vintage Borrowers Pounced on Early-Autumn Rate Drops
U.S. markets are higher coming back from a three-day weekend, as a new administration takes over and a new college football champion was crowned. The S&P 500 is trading up by about 0.7% gaining steam in the afternoon. The lack of a barrage of tariffs from President Trump on his first day back in office helped stocks at the open. Treasury yields ticked down across the curve except for the 2-year, which has moved steadily higher through the day. The U.S. Dollar index is lower by 1.2% after coming off its high for the day from the early morning. Bitcoin jumped to $109K but has since pulled back to around $105K this morning.
The S&P is looking to add to its 3% gain last week. The equal-weight and Russell both outperformed, adding 4% each. A downgrade to sell on Apple is taking the stock down 4% today but the rest of the market is shrugging off the move, including most of the mega-caps and tech space. The NYSE FANG+ index is up about 1.3%. Strength is broad-based as the S&P equal weight is up near 1% and the Russell 2000 has added 1.7%. Energy is the only sector in the red (barely) after Info Tech rallied into the green. E&P names are leading the sector lower following crude’s weakness and a focus from D.C. to ramp up production. As we head to print, news was breaking that President Trump will announce billions of dollars in private sector investment to build AI infrastructure in the U.S. Utilities and Industrials are leading, with defense particularly strong and investors liking 3M’s earnings update.
Markets were waiting to see what actions President Trump would take on Day One via Executive Orders (EO), especially regarding tariffs. Many EOs were targeted to immigration and border policy along with government spending (e.g. establishing The Department of Government Efficiency). Of the more immediately impactful for financial markets, President Trump discussed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting on February 1st, though we’re unaware of any specific order signed. Autos are holding up well on the news, helped by an upgrade for GM. The lack of definitive, universal tariffs at the jump, especially against China are a bit of a relief for the market. Instead the administration is looking to conduct broad analyses of trade policies. Energy policy was also prominent in the EOs, including developing Alaskan energy resources, a review of offshore wind policies, and a declaration of a national energy emergency, allowing for expediated permitting and construction of energy infrastructure.
Treasury yields have seen some volatility today. The belly and the long-end are down 3-5bp but 2-year has risen to 4.30% after starting the day around 4.25%. U.S. Dollar has also been volatile, falling to 108 on Monday before retracing that move later in the day. Today the index made a move to 109 but has sold off, heading back to 108.
Bent crude is down around 1% but off its lows as markets digest the energy-related executive orders. Gold is up modestly and copper is lower. It’s a light day on the economic calendar but The World Economic Forum in Davos has kicked off, so expect lots of talking from corporate and government leaders.
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields
- US 2yr +0bps to 4.29%, 5yr -3bps to 4.41%, 10yr -5bps to 4.58%, 30yr -6bps to 4.80%
- USD index: -$1.43 to $107.78
- VIX: -0.74 to 15.23
- ECB Governing Council member Kazimir signaled a near-certain interest rate cut next week and potentially up to four consecutive quarter-point reductions in 2025. - Bloomberg
- President Trump issued a barrage of executive orders and policy initiatives after his inauguration - WSJ
- U.S.:
- Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: 2.2 vs 4.6 prior
- Global
- German ZEW: 10.3 vs. 15.3 cons., prior 15.7
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