STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 2/24/26
DOW 49,216 (+412), S&P 500 6,887 (+50), Russell 2000 2,651 (+30), NYSE FANG+ 14,155 (+51), ICE Brent Crude $71.10/barrel (-$0.39), Gold $5,176/oz (-$50), Bitcoin ~64.3k (-257)
- Equities bounce back as the AI fever breaks
- Claude being diplomatic - but more datacenter deals
- Consumer confidence improves
- Waiting on the State of the Union Address
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- History Series- New York City's Geographic Evolution
- ETF Central: Former NFL Star & Champion Venture Partners' Marques Colston
- February 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report: Early-January Rate Decline Unlocks Refinance Opportunity for Nearly 5 Million Homeowners
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The celebratory mood after the US Hockey Golden sweep over the weekend quickly evaporated during yesterday’s session as the AI disruption narrative picked up further steam fueled by a Citrini Research report that made its way around social media. The report pointed to a dystopian not too distant future where unemployment exceeds 10% as AI transforms the economy. Word of caution do not read before bedtime, I made that mistake on Sunday evening, but didn’t think it would have such a widespread market impact. Comments from Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, discussing software bankruptcies and mispricing of structural risk added to the bearish fodder. The AI Anxiety overshadowed the looming questions around trade after Friday’s Supreme Court decision. President Trump quickly instituted a 10% global tariff under Section 132 and then raised the rate just 24 hours later. The fact that we were coming out of options expiration, where some protection rolled off, and trading desks were half manned after the storms, may have added to the volatility as well.
The S&P 500 fell ~1% closing right around Friday’s low and just over the rising 100d ma (~6,825). Software continued to be under pressure with the private credit concerns spreading more broadly into financials with the sector falling >3%. Payment processors also got hit hard following the Citrini report. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon who likes to give forecasts and tends to have a pragmatic view, warned of similarities ahead of the GFC saying some financial firms were “doing some dumb things” recall his “cockroach” comments about private credit back in October amidst the First Brands/Tricolor bankruptcies. He did say that the company would be an AI winner pushing back against some the claims in the Citrini report about the transformation of payments systems. In the afternoon IBM (-13%) became the most recent Claude Casualty after Anthropic said Claude Code could be used to modernize COBOL (Common Business-Oriented Language) which is used in business data processing. Sectors ending the session higher included defensive consumer staples/healthcare, commodity and yield oriented sectors.
Ahead of this evening’s State of the Union Address equities are bouncing back recouping about half of yesterday’s losses. Zooming out the S&P 500 continues to ping pong between its 100/50d moving averages trapped in a ~250pt range for the last three months. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 49pts to 6,887 (+0.7%), the Dow is up 405pts to 49,209 (+0.8%), while the Russell 2k is up 29pts to 2,650 (+1.1%).
Anthropic is holding an agent event today announcing multiple partnerships and seems to be highlighting the idea that Claude plugin can be used within current systems as opposed to displacing them which is helping software finally catch a bid. Sticking with the AI theme, Meta (+0.3%) and AMD (+10%) announced a partnership to build a 6gw data center using AMD GPUs. As part of the deal AMD has issued Meta performance-based warrants to purchase up to 160ml shares in the company. This deal comes a week after a deal made with Nvidia. One of the topics expected in this evening’s SOTU speech is President Trump announcing “ratepayer protection pledges” requiring tech companies to pay for increased electricity costs, further addressing affordability issues ahead of midterms.
This morning the weekly ADP 4-week average employment change increased to 12.75k from 10.25k last week. December Case Shiller home prices were up 1.4% in line with estimates. After a big drop in January which was partially revised away Consumer Confidence bounced back to 91.5 driven by an increase in the expectations index (see below) with expectations for an improvement in labor market conditions and income (note this was before the Citrini induced nightmares). There are a ton of Fed speakers chiming in on AI today. Treasuries rallied yesterday with yields retesting last week’s low and they are holding the bulk of those gains this morning. The USD index was extending to the upside but pulled back ~10:30 along with oil prices after comments from Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minster that Iran is ready to take any necessary step to reach a deal.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +1bps to 3.46%, 5yr +1bps to 3.60%, 10yr -1bps to 4.03%, 30yr -2bps to 4.69%
- USD index: +$0.08 to $97.73
It was a mixed overnight session around the globe. Mainland China re-opened for the first time since the Lunar New Year and closed modestly higher while the Hang Seng gave back a good portion of Monday’s rally. The PBOC left its 1/5yr Loan Prime rates unchanged as expected. The latest DeepSeek model is expected to be released shortly and there’s a lot of geopolitical tension surrounding it. White House officials reportedly said that it was trained on Nvidia Blackwell chips, in violation of US export controls. The country also added 20 Japanese firms with military ties to its export control list adding to tension between the countries. The Nikkei re-opened after being closed yesterday shaking off initial losses to the end the session in the green. The Yen weakened by nearly 1% versus the USD after reports that PM Takaichi voiced concerns about additional rate hikes in a meeting with BOJ Governor Ueda last week. The Nikkei also reported that the Yen rate check last month was done at the directive of Treasury Secretary Bessent and not requested by the Finance Ministry. India’s Sensex fell >1% giving back yesterday’s gains and then some with IT consulting companies leading to the downside. European indices opened slightly lower but have not veered far from unchanged levels.
Commodities are mixed. Oil prices were higher overnight but reversed after the Iran comments with ICE Brent down a little less than 1%.. The metals complex is the opposite of yesterday with gold/silver pulling back while platinum and copper bounce. Ag is modestly lower. Crypto took another leg lower overnight but has been bouncing throughout the session recouping a good portion of those losses. The below chart highlights the correlation between the drawdown in software and crypto over the last four months.
At the sector level there is pretty broad-based strength. Consumer discretionary is the best performing sector in the S&P 500. Home Depot (+3%) is trading higher after solid results with the company highlighting strong online and contractor sales despite the continued housing headwinds. Travel related stocks are some of the best performing. Info tech is not far behind up ~% with strength in semis and electrical equipment stocks after strong earnings from Keysight. Industrials are up ~1% with airlines and infrastructure stocks outperforming. Energy moved lower with the commodity. Healthcare is modestly lower with insurance stocks under pressure ahead of the SOTU. Financials were under pressure at the open but have bounced back.
Looking ahead to tomorrow markets will be picking apart President Trump’s speech. It will be somewhat busy on the earnings front. Retail earnings include Lowe’s and TJX ahead of the open. Nvidia earnings are after the close tomorrow. There are also a couple of software earnings that will get some attention Workday after the close today and then Salesforce and Snowflake tomorrow. Not much on the economic calendar.
Earnings:
- After-Market: After-Market: AII, AMC, AXON, BXC, CAVA, CSGP, CWH, ECG, EOG, EVH, FSLR, FVR, GDDY, GIC, GMED, GPOR, HPQ, LCID, LTC, MATX, MELI, MOS, MTDR, O, PARR, PSTL, REZI, RRC, RVLV, SEI, SILA, SKT, SPXC, SUI, TALO, TREX, UIS, UVE, VLRS, VRE, WDAY, ZETA
- Pre-Market: AOMR, APG, AROC, ASPN, AVA, Bayer AG, BKV, BXSL, CLDT, CRCL, CTRI, Diageo, DIN, DOLE, FSS, HAYW, HIPO, HNI, HOV, HSBC, LAW, LOW, LXFR, MANU, MDLN, OC, PNW, PSKY, STWD, SWX, TBLA, TJX, TPH, UWMC, VLN, YOU
- After-Market: A, AGL, AHT, AI, ALKT, CAPL, CBZ, CHE, CHMI, CPK, CRGY, CRM, CSV, CWT, DBRG, EE, EFC, EPR, FIHL, FSK, GMRE, GNL, GPRK, GRBK, HBB, HCI, IBTA, IMAX, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KGS, KNTK, LB, LXU, MEG, MIAX, NGVT, NOG, NPKI, NSA, NTNX, NU, NVDA, ORA, OUT, PEB, PR, PRSU, PSTG, RCUS, RDW, SARO, SDRL, SM, SMA, SNOW, TDOC, TKO, TTD, TTI, UHS, UMH, USPH, VAC, VICI, VTOL, WHD, WSR, WTRG, XPER, XZO, ZIP, ZM, ZVIA
Economic Data:
US:
- ADP Weekly Employment Change: prior 10.25k
- Consumer Confidence: 91.2 vs. 87 cons., prior 89
- Richmond Fed Index: -10 vs. -4 cons., prior -6
- Wholesale Inventories: 0.2% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.2%
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
Global:
- South Korea PPI: 0.6%/1.9% m.m/y.y prior 0.4%/1.9
- China 1/5yr Loan Prime Rate left unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively
- EU New Car Registrations: -3.9% y/y prior 5.8%
NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 2/24/2026 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
The celebratory mood after the US Hockey Golden sweep quickly evaporated during yesterday’s session as the AI disruption narrative picked up further steam. One of the catalysts adding to the dour mood was a Citrini Research report that made its way around social media pointing to a dystopian not too distant future where unemployment exceeds 10% as AI transforms the economy. Word of caution do not read before bedtime. Comments from Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, discussing software bankruptcies and mispricing of structural risk didn’t help sentiment either.
The S&P 500 fell 1% closing right around Friday’s low and just over the rising 100d ma (~6,825). Software continued to be under pressure with the private credit concerns spreading more broadly into financials with the sector falling >3%. Payment processors also got hit hard following the Citrini report. In the afternoon IBM (-13%) became the most recent Claude Casualty after Anthropic said Claude Code could be used to modernize COBOL (Common Business-Oriented Language) which is used in business data processing. Sectors ending the session higher included defensive consumer staples/healthcare, commodity and yield oriented sectors.
Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union address this evening there was a tepid bounce in futures overnight but they have come off of best levels. You can add cautious comments from JPM Jamie Dimon to the current narrative. He tends to have a pragmatic view, this time warning of similarities ahead of the GFC saying some financial firms were “doing some dumb things”. He did say that the company would be an AI winner pushing back against some the claims in the Citrini report about the transformation of payments systems.
Meta (unch) and AMD (+10%) announced a partnership to build a 6gw data center using AMD GPUs as part of the deal AM has issued Meta performance-based warrants to purchase up to 160ml shares in the company. This deal comes a week after a deal made with Nvidia. One of the topics expected in this evening’s SOTU speech is President Trump announcing “ratepayer protection pledges” requiring tech companies to pay for increased electricity costs, further addressing affordability issues ahead of midterms. Home Depot (+2.5%) is trading higher ahead of its earnings call. The company put up solid results with an uptick in operating margins though the company left annual guidance unchanged noting the continued difficult housing market.
This morning the weekly ADP 4-week average employment change increased to 12.75k from 10.25k last week. Ahead of the open S&P Case Shiller will be released followed by consumer confidence and wholesale inventories. There are a ton of Fed speakers on the calendar today. Treasuries rallied yesterday with yields retesting last week’s low and they are holding the bulk of those gains this morning. The USD index continues to move higher up ~0.2% trading just above its 50d ma (~$97.75).
Government Yields
It was a mixed overnight session around the globe. Mainland China re-opened for the first time since the Lunar New Year and closed modestly higher while the Hang Seng gave back a good portion of Monday’s rally. The PBOC left its 1/5yr Loan Prime rates unchanged as expected. The latest DeepSeek model is expected to be released shortly and there’s a lot of geopolitical tension surrounding it. White House officials reportedly said that it was trained on Nvidia Blackwell chips, in violation of US export controls. The country also added 20 Japanese firms with military ties to its export control list adding to tension between the countries. The Nikkei re-opened after being closed yesterday shaking off initial losses to the end the session in the green. The Yen weakened by nearly 1% versus the USD after reports that PM Takaichi voiced concerns about additional rate hikes in a meeting with BOJ Governor Ueda last week. The Nikkei also reported that the Yen rate check last month was done at the directive of Treasury Secretary Bessent and not requested by the Finance Ministry. India’s Sensex fell >1% giving back yesterday’s gains and then some with IT consulting companies leading to the downside. European indices opened slightly lower but have not veered far from unchanged levels.
Commodities are mixed. Ahead of the next round of Iran negotiations on Thursday oil remains well bid with ICE Brent up just over 0.5% trading ~$72. The metals complex is the opposite of yesterday with gold/silver pulling back while platinum and copper bounce. Ag is modestly lower. Crypto continues to be under pressure. Bitcoin is just off of session lows down ~2.5% trading ~63k. Ethereum is down a similar amount holding just over 1,800.
Earnings:
US:
The celebratory mood after the US Hockey Golden sweep quickly evaporated during yesterday’s session as the AI disruption narrative picked up further steam. One of the catalysts adding to the dour mood was a Citrini Research report that made its way around social media pointing to a dystopian not too distant future where unemployment exceeds 10% as AI transforms the economy. Word of caution do not read before bedtime. Comments from Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, discussing software bankruptcies and mispricing of structural risk didn’t help sentiment either.
The S&P 500 fell 1% closing right around Friday’s low and just over the rising 100d ma (~6,825). Software continued to be under pressure with the private credit concerns spreading more broadly into financials with the sector falling >3%. Payment processors also got hit hard following the Citrini report. In the afternoon IBM (-13%) became the most recent Claude Casualty after Anthropic said Claude Code could be used to modernize COBOL (Common Business-Oriented Language) which is used in business data processing. Sectors ending the session higher included defensive consumer staples/healthcare, commodity and yield oriented sectors.
Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union address this evening there was a tepid bounce in futures overnight but they have come off of best levels. You can add cautious comments from JPM Jamie Dimon to the current narrative. He tends to have a pragmatic view, this time warning of similarities ahead of the GFC saying some financial firms were “doing some dumb things”. He did say that the company would be an AI winner pushing back against some the claims in the Citrini report about the transformation of payments systems.
- VIX: +0.03 to 21.04
Meta (unch) and AMD (+10%) announced a partnership to build a 6gw data center using AMD GPUs as part of the deal AM has issued Meta performance-based warrants to purchase up to 160ml shares in the company. This deal comes a week after a deal made with Nvidia. One of the topics expected in this evening’s SOTU speech is President Trump announcing “ratepayer protection pledges” requiring tech companies to pay for increased electricity costs, further addressing affordability issues ahead of midterms. Home Depot (+2.5%) is trading higher ahead of its earnings call. The company put up solid results with an uptick in operating margins though the company left annual guidance unchanged noting the continued difficult housing market.
This morning the weekly ADP 4-week average employment change increased to 12.75k from 10.25k last week. Ahead of the open S&P Case Shiller will be released followed by consumer confidence and wholesale inventories. There are a ton of Fed speakers on the calendar today. Treasuries rallied yesterday with yields retesting last week’s low and they are holding the bulk of those gains this morning. The USD index continues to move higher up ~0.2% trading just above its 50d ma (~$97.75).
Government Yields
- US 2yr +1bps to 3.46%, 5yr +1bps to 3.60%, 10yr +0bps to 4.04%, 30yr -1bps to 4.69%
- USD index: +$0.25 to $97.90
It was a mixed overnight session around the globe. Mainland China re-opened for the first time since the Lunar New Year and closed modestly higher while the Hang Seng gave back a good portion of Monday’s rally. The PBOC left its 1/5yr Loan Prime rates unchanged as expected. The latest DeepSeek model is expected to be released shortly and there’s a lot of geopolitical tension surrounding it. White House officials reportedly said that it was trained on Nvidia Blackwell chips, in violation of US export controls. The country also added 20 Japanese firms with military ties to its export control list adding to tension between the countries. The Nikkei re-opened after being closed yesterday shaking off initial losses to the end the session in the green. The Yen weakened by nearly 1% versus the USD after reports that PM Takaichi voiced concerns about additional rate hikes in a meeting with BOJ Governor Ueda last week. The Nikkei also reported that the Yen rate check last month was done at the directive of Treasury Secretary Bessent and not requested by the Finance Ministry. India’s Sensex fell >1% giving back yesterday’s gains and then some with IT consulting companies leading to the downside. European indices opened slightly lower but have not veered far from unchanged levels.
Commodities are mixed. Ahead of the next round of Iran negotiations on Thursday oil remains well bid with ICE Brent up just over 0.5% trading ~$72. The metals complex is the opposite of yesterday with gold/silver pulling back while platinum and copper bounce. Ag is modestly lower. Crypto continues to be under pressure. Bitcoin is just off of session lows down ~2.5% trading ~63k. Ethereum is down a similar amount holding just over 1,800.
Earnings:
- After-Market: ACVA, AESI, ALSN, APLE, BBBY, BCC, BSM, BWXT, CNNE, CTEV, CWEN, GNW, HIMS, HLX, IIPR, INVX, JBTM, KEYS, KWR, MAX, OKE, OPAD, OSG, OVV, PAY, PLOW, PRIM, RHP, SGHC, TNC, VVX
- Pre-Market (Tues): AIN, AMT, AS, AVNS, AWI, BOW, BRSL, CLVT, CYD, DOCN, ELAN, EXPD, FERG, FIS, HD, HSBC, HVT, INFU, KDP, LTH, NRG, NRP, NVRI, NXRT, PERF, PLNT, WLK, WLKP, XHR
- After-Market: AII, AMC, AXON, BXC, CAVA, CSGP, CWH, ECG, EOG, EVH, FSLR, FVR, GDDY, GIC, GMED, GPOR, HPQ, LCID, LTC, MATX MELI,, MOS, MTDR, O, PARR, PSTL, REZI, RRC, RVLV, SEI, SILA, SKT, SPXC, SUI, TALO, TREX, UIS, UVE, VLRS, VRE, WDAY, ZETA
US:
- ADP Weekly Employment Change: prior 10.25k
- 9:00 Fed Goolsbee
- 9:00 Case Shiller Home prices
- 9:00 Fed Bostic/Collins
- 9:15/30 Fed Waller/Cook
- 10:00 Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 Richmond Fed Index
- 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
- 10:30 Dallas Fed Index
- 3:15 Fed Barkin/Collins
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
- South Korea PPI: 0.6%/1.9% m.m/y.y prior 0.4%/1.9%
- China 1/5yr Loan Prime Rate left unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively
- EU New Car Registrations: -3.9% y/y prior 5.8%
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