by Eric Criscuolo- Market Strategist

Published on 7/6/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)

When we left you on Thursday, US markets were mixed following a disappointing jobs report and concerns about the AI data center buildout. The S&P 500 ended the session down 0.6% but closed the week up just over 1%. Semis, memory and other AI adjacent stocks sold off sharply. Defensive/yield-oriented sectors outperformed. 

European markets clocked in to work on Friday as the US geared up for 250 and finished higher as the STOXX 600 hit a new all-time high. In Asia the Nikkei rose 1.5% and China saw gains as well. South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded sharply, adding about 6% after dropping 8% on Thursday.       

             

Today we came back to work and the new Trump Accounts- tax-advantaged investment vehicles for children- officially launched. To celebrate the occasion President Trump rang the Opening Bell remotely from the Oval Office. The S&P 500 opened up 0.3% and climbed from there, currently near session highs of ~0.8%. The equal-weight is flat however with 5/11 sectors lower. Small caps are doing better than the equal-weight but slightly lagging the market-weight index.

Memory stocks are bouncing back today after getting hammered last week. The DRAM ETF is up 7% after falling 15% last week. A repot from SemiAnalysis refuted some of last week’s “overcapacity” negativity that surfaced on news that Meta could sell excess compute capacity, followed by similar news for Softbank. Another report that said Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees the pace of AI agent development was not progressing as quickly as hoped, further contributed to the swoon in sentiment last week. Today there are plenty of other headlines within the space that are collectively pushing tech to the lead: 

A couple M&A transactions have also been announced this morning including Solstice buying Element Solution for ~$14.5B in cash and stock and Lockheed buying Ultra Maritime for $3.5B.

The tech-heavy sectors, Info Tech, Comm Services and Consumer Discretionary, are leading. Outside of Meta and Alphabet, most of the rest of Comm Services is modestly lower. The autos are also an island of green strength in an otherwise red tape for Discretionary (and AMZN is modestly higher as well).  Auto parts retailers are lower after last week’s late news that Genuine Auto Parts received interest from O’Reilly for its NAPA auto unit, valuing the segment around $10B. Thursday’s winners are leading lower to start this week. Staples, Healthcare, Materials, Real Estate and Utilities are all down about 1% today. 

June ISM Services  were inline with expectations, moving slightly lower from May. New Order activity slowed but remained growing, employment picked up and price increases eased but remain high. Tomorrow will be a light day with Trade Balance, Weekly ADP and LMI Logistics Survey leading the data. Treasuries have steepened a little with 30y +2bp and 2y -1bp. The US Dollar Index was near 101 but has pulled back to ~100.5 as the Euro strengthened from its lows, overcoming continued yen weakness.

Markets in Asia were mixed. The Nikkei ended around unchanged after gaining 1.5% on Friday. Pressure on the yen has continued. South Korea’s Kospi was down modestly after bouncing on Friday (+6%), which followed an 8% drop on Thursday. Samsung earnings this evening will be a key event, in addition to the listing of SK Hynix US ADR this week. Apple supplier Hon Hai had strong earnings results, pointing to AI demand. European indices were modestly lower, giving back Friday’s gain though Germany’s DAX ended slightly positive. EU retail sales came in a touch below estimates while PPI was in line at 0.2% m/m down from 0.7% in the prior month.

Brent is slightly lower, continuing to trade below its 200d ma (Sept contract). OPEC+ announced that it would increase output by 188k/ bp/d. Metals are extending last week’s post-jobs bounce, though off best levels. Ag is higher across the complex amidst weather concerns. Crypto moved higher throughout the weekend but bitcoin came in earlier this morning after Strategy disclosed sales of ~$225ml. It has since rebounded and is making a run at $64K while ETH looks to get above its 50D ma ~$1800. 

After-Market: None

Pre-Market (Tues): None

After-Market (Tues): EPAC, PENG, SAR

US:

Global: