Market Update

DOW 47,488 (+376), S&P 500 6,818 (+52), Russell 2000 2,490 (+24), NYSE FANG+ 16,536 (+83), ICE Brent Crude $62.71/barrel (+$0.23), Gold $4,165/oz (+$25), Bitcoin ~90.0k (+2997)

• Streaking into the holiday
• Broad gains across sectors and market caps
• Solid employment data
• Crypto finding its footing
• Happy Thanksgiving
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 498: Realty Income CEO Sumit Roy on Monthly Dividends, European Expansion, and the Future of Net Lease
  • ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High
  • ETF Central: Former CNBC Senior Markets Correspondent Bob Pisani
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
The S&P 500 is looking to make it four straight days of near 1% gains ahead of Thanksgiving and Friday’s early close. The index is currently up just under 1% and breath is solid with equal-weight, mid and small caps all tracking closely. Yesterday the S&P 500 finished just under 1% higher while regaining the 50 and 20d ma.  Several retailers were sharply higher following earnings: KSS +43%, ANF +38%; EAT +7% BBY +5%. Meanwhile a big divergence trade in tech continued as Nvidia fell >2% while Alphabet’s AI-fueled momentum continued. 2y treasury yields fell 4bp with reports that White House Sr. Adviser Kevin Hassett was the front runner to replace Fed Chair Powell, given his alignment with the administration’s policy outlook.
 


Inline with the broad strength, several sectors are up around 1%, with Tech and Materials at the top. Oracle is bouncing from oversold levels while semis are strong across the board (AMD, AVGO, INTC, NVDA >2%). Dell is up 5% after reporting results last night. Topline was a slight miss while EPS beat and 2026 guidance was raised above the Street. “AI momentum is accelerating in H2 of the year, leading to record AI server orders…” However the company also noted that unprecedented cost increases are impacting all product categories, centered on memory. HPQ is trading lower after posting slight beats while the 2026 EPS guide was below the Street, and the company announcing a headcount reduction tied to efficiency and productivity initiatives, including AI adoption. Memory costs were also cited by the company. Chemicals and miners are pushing Materials higher. Comm Services is lagging as Alphabet takes a breather after a 20%+ gain over the past month. Healthcare is another laggard with recent gainers like Life Sciences and Eli Lilly taking a holiday break.


 
Deere was another prominent earnings reporter this morning. The stock is down ~4%. Management noted that 2026 should “mark the bottom of the large ag cycle,” despite lingering margin pressures from tariffs and other market challenges.

Regarding today’s data, Initial Jobless Claims continue to remain at relatively low levels and declined to 216K from 222K, coming below estimates. Continuing claims were a bit higher than last week, but that comp was revised lower from 1974K to 1953K. Durable Goods from September were mixed: Headline growth fell vs. August but beat estimates. Ex-Defense was below and missed estimates but non-defense, ex-air was inline with September. The Chicago PMI was a big miss. Treasury yields are higher on the short end as the 2yr rises 3bp. Longer-end yields are flat. The 7y auction tailed by 0.6bp.  The Beige Book will come out at 2pm.    

• US 2yr +3bps to 3.49%, 5yr +1bps to 3.58%, 10yr +1bps to 4.01%, 30yr -0bps to 4.65%
• USD index: -$0.07 to $99.52

Bitcoin moved up from earlier losses, then took another leg up to challenge $90K. Ether saw similar action, getting north of $3000 and closer to the 20d ma ~$3140. Crude is slightly higher despite the EIA reporting a 2.8M build this morning, going the other way from the API’s 1.9M draw reported last night. Brent is trading ~$62.50, filling the gap up on 10/23. Precious metals are higher with gold up >1%, silver and palladium +4-5%. Copper is also higher, having held its 50d ma.
 

 
Over in Japan the Nikkei rose almost 2%. A 40y JGB auction was on the weaker side but didn’t trigger any significant broader moves. The potential for a December rate hike is being talked up more but still remains up in the air. China’s markets were mixed as Hang Seng and Shanghai traded on either side of unchanged.
 


The big story in Europe is in the UK. The wait for the highly anticipated Autumn Budget was shorter than expected as the report came out early, triggering some chaotic trading. Gilt yields moved around sharply. The long end initially dropped before an equally sharp reversal higher, followed by a slightly more gradual decline back to the day’s lows. The 10y is currently down 7bp, 30y down 10bp while the short end is only down a few bp. TL;DR: Gilt issuance will be lower next year as the UK’s fiscal position improves. UK equities also saw heightened volatility, but the FTSE 100 is ending the day up ~1%. Other major European markets are up ~1% as well. The DAX reclaimed its 200d ma and the France’s CAC cleared its 50d. The US Dollar Index is slightly lower with Euro and Pound strength overcoming Yen weakness.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 
 
Earnings:

• After-Market (Tues): ADSK, DELL, GES, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, PD, URBN, WDAY, WOOF, ZS
• Pre-Market: BBW, DE
• Pre-Market (Friday): None

Economic Data:
US:

• Mortgage applications: 7.6% vs. prior -2.3%
  • Refis: -5.7% vs. -7.3%
• Jobless Claims: 216K vs. 225K cons., prior 222K
  • Continuing Claims: 1960K vs. prior 1953K
• Durable Goods Orders m.m (Sept): 0.5% vs. 0.3% cons, prior 2.9%
  • Ex-transports: 0.6% vs. 0.2% cons, prior 0.4%
  • Ex-defense: 0.1% vs. 1.9% cons., prior 1.9%
  • Non Defense ex-air: 0.9% vs. prior 0.6%
• Chicago PMI: 36.3 vs. 44.3 cons., prior 43.8
• EIA crude inventories: 2.774M vs. -0.5M cons., prior -3.426M
• 7y auction: Tailed 0.6bp
• EIA nat gas inventories: -11Bcf vs. -14Bcf cons., prior -14Bcf
• Rig count: 544 vs. prior 544
• 2pm Beige Book

Global:

• Australia CPI y.y: 3.8% vs. 3.6% cons., prior 3.6%