STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 4/13/26
DOW 47,929 (+12), S&P 500 6,846 (+29), Russell 2000 2,657 (+27), NYSE FANG+ 7,405 (+121), ICE Brent Crude $99.33/barrel (+$4.13), Gold $4,769/oz (-$18), Bitcoin ~72.4k (-776)
- No deal, still hope
- Selective blockade
- Equities higher; Tech, Financials leading
- Software bouncing, Earnings kicks off
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 525: Vinson & Elkins Chair Keith Fullenweider on Energy, Evolution & Texas' Rise
- ETF Central: Team Epiphany Founder & CEO Coltrane Curtis
- NYSE Research Insights: NYSE Closing Auction Residual Imbalances
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Ahead of this weekend’s negotiations the S&P 500 just missed making it 8 in a row, ending Friday slightly lower. However, like Rory at The Masters, the index managed to pull off a back-to-back, capturing the second straight week of >3% gains. That was the first time the S&P had done that since October of 2022. Rory’s second straight Green jacket is probably a bit more impressive- he’s only the fourth person in history to achieve that feat.
Last week Tech re-asserted its strength with the NYSE 100 index up >5% driven by an >10% gain in the semiconductor group amidst more partnership announcements and capex spending commitments. This more than offset another drubbing in software (IGV ~-7%) after the unveiling of Anthropic’s newest model, Mythos, which is not being released to the public, adding to the AI-anxiety.
The main story this weekend were of course the US-Iran negotiations. They broke ended after 21 hours with the key issues unresolved: opening of the Strait and the end of the enrichment program. In response, on Sunday President Trump said the US Navy would blockade the Strait. CENTCOM later clarified that, saying the blockade will be on ships entering/exiting Iranian ports. That softened the action to just targeting Iran shipping, effectively, while permitting other ships to transit the strait. The see-saw of headlines continued, with some articles touting the potential of continued negotiations while others discussed new options for US military strikes.
Oil prices moved sharply higher overnight with ICE Brent up ~7.5% and trading back over $100. S&P futures were down ~1.5% at the lows just after opening on Sunday night and were down even more on crypto-native markets. Futures regrouped and moved higher, erasing more than half of the gap down before the open as a few more optimistic headlines hit the tape.
The S&P 500 opened down 0.2% but jumped on a NY Post headline that said Iran was looking at the abandonment of its uranium enrichment program. Later clarification was that this was just part of the US proposal and not really anything new. Equities nonetheless extended the gains to current levels, the highs of the day, following comments from Trump around noon. He said he “right people” in Iran still want a U.S.-Iran deal and he’s optimistic that Iran will agree on the US’ nuclear points. The Atlantic reported that the next round of US-Iran talks will be held in Islamabad on Thursday. The S&P is up 0.5%, with the equal-weight about inline and small caps outperforming.
Consumer Staples and Utilities are the main laggards today as risk sentiment improves. Tech and Financials are leading. Software is seeing a big bounce after last week’s drubbing, and Bloomberg reported that Nvidia was looking at acquiring a large PC company- computers, not private credit, according to the site SemiAccurate (I’m not sure if that’s ironic or not. Guess we’ll find out). For Financials, banks are generally modestly higher. Like software names, the services group is strong, though not by as much, as are PC/PE firms (Private Credit, not computers this time).
Normally the MAC Desk gets tired just by looking at the earnings season calendar, but at this time it’s providing a very welcomed new perspective and focus. Q1 earnings season kicked off today with GS first out of the gate for the mega Financials. The stock is trading lower but was off its worst level despite top and bottom line beats. FICC revenue of $4b looks to be one reason, missing estimates of ~$5b. Intermediation (market making) was significantly lower for interest rates and mortgages (despite bond volatility), partially offset by significant activity in commodities and currencies. M&A volumes and convertible activity drove 48% y/y growth in Investment Banking, though fees backlog declined slightly since last quarter. Equities revenues were a record, up 27% from last year and 24% from last quarter. Credit loss provisions seem benign, rising ~$30m y/y due to loan growth as well as wholesale loan impairments.
The only economic data on the calendar was Existing Home Sales, which at 3.98M fell versus last month to their lowest level since June and missed consensus. Homebuilders are modestly lower on the day.
Treasury yields are down about 2-3bps across the curve. The USD Index turned negative as the geopolitical takes came down from their hawkish extremes.
- US 2yr -3bps to 3.79%, 5yr -3bps to 3.92%, 10yr -2bps to 4.31%, 30yr -1bps to 4.91%
- USD index: -$0.11 to $98.33
European equities ended slightly lower but at their highs of the day. Luxury heavyweight and MAC Desk fashion designer LVMH finished slightly lower after reporting earnings results that were a touch light. There was some positive commentary on the start of the year in the US and solid growth in Asia-ex Japan.
Japan’s Nikei closed down a little less than 1% but traded in a tith range. According to reports Softbank and other Japanese firms are launching a unit to develop domestic, “physical” AI in Japan for robots and machines. In China the Hang Seng was also down ~1% but the Shanghai Composite was the standout, closing a touch higher. Chinese loan growth was a touch lower than expected.
Crude is higher as expected but Brent is down from its highs ~$104, currently sitting right at $100 and natural gas prices up >5%. European natural gas is up ~5% but trading in a very tight range while US gas is around flat, trading around a multi-year low. In Ag commodities corn and wheat are bouncing after selling off from their recent highs over the past two weeks. Metals are mixed. Gold broke below its 100d ma but regained that level and is trading slightly lower on the day. Copper is outperforming, with upside momentum accelerating after it cleared its 50d ma on Friday. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ether are down ~1%.
Earnings:
- After-Market: FBK
- Pre-Market (Tues): ACI, BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
- After-Market (Wed): EQBK
Economic Data:
US:
- New Home Sales: 3.98M vs 4.06M cons, prior 4.13M
Global:
- China Loan Growth: 5.7% vs. 5.9% cons., prior 6%
- India Inflation: 3.4% y/y vs. 3.5% cons., prior 3.2%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael Reinking, CFA
Published on 4/13/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Ahead of this weekend’s negotiations the S&P 500 broke its 8-day winning streak ending the session slightly lower. However, like Rory at The Masters, the index pulled off back-to-back >3% weekly gains, for the first time since October of 2022. Rory’s Green jacket is more impressive as he is only the fourth person in history to achieve this feat. Last week, tech re-asserted its strength with the NYSE 100 index up >5% driven by an >10% gain in the semi-sector amidst more partnership announcements and capex spending commitments. This more than offset another drubbing in software (IGV ~-7%) after the unveiling of Anthropic’s newest model, Mythos, which is not being released to the public, adding to the AI-anxiety.
The Iran negotiations broke down after 21 hours with the key unresolved issues reportedly centering around the opening of the Strait and the end of the enrichment program. In response, President Trump said the US Navy would blockade the Strait which was later clarified by CENTCOM saying that it will target ships entering/exiting Iranian ports beginning at 10:00am ET. Oil prices have moved sharply higher with ICE Brent up ~7.5% trading back over $100 and reversing most of the post ceasefire gap. Equity futures moved lower but are off the worst levels. S&P futures are down ~0.5% near session highs after giving back ~1.5% at the lows shortly after futures re-opened (losses were even steeper on Saturday in crypto native markets). Within the context of the recent bounce the pullback is pretty contained. Thus far the ceasefire has held and there is some hope that negotiations will continue with Axios reporting the “The door is not closed” according to regional sources.
Outside of the Iran headlines it was a very quiet weekend. However, Q1 earnings season is “officially” underway today. GS is first out of the gate for the mega Financials. The stock is trading lower despite top and bottom line beats. FICC revenue of $4b looks to be one reason, missing estimates of ~$5b. Intermediation (market making) was significantly lower for interest rates and mortgages (despite bond volatility), partially offset by significant activity in commodities and currencies. M&A volumes and convertible activity drove 48% y/y growth in Investment Banking, though fees backlog declined slightly since last quarter. Equities revenues were a record, up 27% from last year and 24% from last quarter. Credit loss provisions seem benign, rising ~$30m y/y due to loan growth as well as wholesale loan impairments. Investors will listen into the call for some additional color.
The only economic data on the calendar is existing home sales out after the open. Treasury yields were higher overnight but are now down ~1bps across the curve. The USD index is modestly higher but has also backed off from the overnight extremes.
Government Yields
Global markets were lower overnight, but the declines were contained with most major indices across Asia and Europe down ~1%. The China Shanghai Composite was the standout closing a touch higher.
The directly impacted commodities are moving higher with global oil and natural gas prices up >5%. Ag commodities are also moving modestly higher. Metals are giving back some of the recent gains. Gold is down ~1% hugging its 100d ma while copper is outperforming. Amidst the overarching weakness crypto is also pulling back.
Economic Data:
US:
Ahead of this weekend’s negotiations the S&P 500 broke its 8-day winning streak ending the session slightly lower. However, like Rory at The Masters, the index pulled off back-to-back >3% weekly gains, for the first time since October of 2022. Rory’s Green jacket is more impressive as he is only the fourth person in history to achieve this feat. Last week, tech re-asserted its strength with the NYSE 100 index up >5% driven by an >10% gain in the semi-sector amidst more partnership announcements and capex spending commitments. This more than offset another drubbing in software (IGV ~-7%) after the unveiling of Anthropic’s newest model, Mythos, which is not being released to the public, adding to the AI-anxiety.
The Iran negotiations broke down after 21 hours with the key unresolved issues reportedly centering around the opening of the Strait and the end of the enrichment program. In response, President Trump said the US Navy would blockade the Strait which was later clarified by CENTCOM saying that it will target ships entering/exiting Iranian ports beginning at 10:00am ET. Oil prices have moved sharply higher with ICE Brent up ~7.5% trading back over $100 and reversing most of the post ceasefire gap. Equity futures moved lower but are off the worst levels. S&P futures are down ~0.5% near session highs after giving back ~1.5% at the lows shortly after futures re-opened (losses were even steeper on Saturday in crypto native markets). Within the context of the recent bounce the pullback is pretty contained. Thus far the ceasefire has held and there is some hope that negotiations will continue with Axios reporting the “The door is not closed” according to regional sources.
Outside of the Iran headlines it was a very quiet weekend. However, Q1 earnings season is “officially” underway today. GS is first out of the gate for the mega Financials. The stock is trading lower despite top and bottom line beats. FICC revenue of $4b looks to be one reason, missing estimates of ~$5b. Intermediation (market making) was significantly lower for interest rates and mortgages (despite bond volatility), partially offset by significant activity in commodities and currencies. M&A volumes and convertible activity drove 48% y/y growth in Investment Banking, though fees backlog declined slightly since last quarter. Equities revenues were a record, up 27% from last year and 24% from last quarter. Credit loss provisions seem benign, rising ~$30m y/y due to loan growth as well as wholesale loan impairments. Investors will listen into the call for some additional color.
The only economic data on the calendar is existing home sales out after the open. Treasury yields were higher overnight but are now down ~1bps across the curve. The USD index is modestly higher but has also backed off from the overnight extremes.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -1bps to 3.80%, 5yr -1bps to 3.94%, 10yr -1bps to 4.33%, 30yr +0bps to 4.92%
- USD index: +$0.27 to $98.71
Global markets were lower overnight, but the declines were contained with most major indices across Asia and Europe down ~1%. The China Shanghai Composite was the standout closing a touch higher.
The directly impacted commodities are moving higher with global oil and natural gas prices up >5%. Ag commodities are also moving modestly higher. Metals are giving back some of the recent gains. Gold is down ~1% hugging its 100d ma while copper is outperforming. Amidst the overarching weakness crypto is also pulling back.
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00 Existing Home Sales
- China Loan Growth: 5.7% vs. 5.9% cons., prior 6%
- India Inflation: 3.4% y/y vs. 3.5% cons., prior 3.2%
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