by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist

Published on 4/30/26 (a/o 2:30 pm)

Space has been the theme of the week here at the NYSE. Earlier this week we hosted our third annual Space Summit, this morning NASA’s Jared Isaacman rang the opening bell and tomorrow we welcome the crew of Artemis II.  Today is the final trading day of April and keeping with that theme some might say the market has gone to the moon this month. As we’re writing April is the best month for the S&P 500 since the >10% gain in November of 2020.

Over the last twenty-four hours consuming all of the news flow has been like drinking through a fire hose. There have been a ton of earnings announcements, central bank updates, economic data and of course Iran related headlines. To recap yesterday before the Fed meeting and the mega-cap tech earnings after the close the story of the day was the continued move higher in oil prices which hit a new highs as President Trump told aides to prepare for a drawn-out blockade and new strikes were being planned by the Pentagon. The focus shifted to the  Federal Reserve in the afternoon. The S&P managed to close essentially flat while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%. Semis bounced after selling off Tuesday on the WSJ’s OpenAI story.

Yesterday's Fed meeting was presumably, Chair Powell’s las in his current role and it will go down in history as the Clash meeting. As expected, rates were left unchanged but the big question heading into the meeting was “Should I Stay or Should I Go?”. This was answered early on as Chair Powell said he’d keep a low profile as he stayed on as Governor in order see through the legal proceedings and help preserve the institution’s independence. Lyrics of the 1980’s classic are ,“If I go there will be trouble, and if I stay, it will be double” we’ll see if this puts him in more hot water with the administration. The other reason this will go down as the Clash meeting is that there were 4 dissenters. Stephen Miran remained the lone inhabitant of Rate Cut Avenue. However, three members wanted to alter the statement by removing the “easing bias” and instead balance it with commentary that the next move rate move is just as likely to be a hike as a cut. This once again highlights the varying opinions on the Board and some believe this served as a shot across the bow for presumably the incoming Chair, Kevin Warsh, whose nomination advanced through the Senate Banking Committee yesterday. You can read our Fed Recap here.

After the close the mega cap tech earnings were eye-popping yet again and didn’t show any signs that AI spending was slowing down though it is starting to have more of an impact on FCF.  Google is the only one with meaningful gains. A few bullets from the reports below:

Overnight US futures were lower along with some weakness in Asian markets as oil continued to surge. The June ICE Brent contract, which rolls today, traded over $125 while WTI crossed >$110. Oil prices started to turn shortly after midnight and then accelerated to the downside this morning ~5:00 am, which left some including the MAC Desk, scratching their heads as there was no obvious headline to point to. There has been a big reversal with prices now down ~3% which along with another strong morning of earnings have helped equities continue to move higher. During the month of April the market has done it's best DJ Khaled impersonation, "All I do is win, win, win no matter what". As we head to print, the S&P 500 is at a new record high up 65pts to 7,200 (+0.9%), the Dow is up 781pts to 49,642 (+1.6%), while the Russell 2k is up 51pts to 2,791 (+1.9%).

The other big story overnight were comments from officials in Japan about currency intervention with Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs saying, “this is my final advisory if you want to escape.” The timing of the announcements ahead of the Golden Week holiday is notable. Previous interventions have concurred with holidays, when volumes are typically lower, including 2024. Another official warned, “ Whether you’re out and about or at rest, please don’t put your smartphones down”. According to the Nikkei the verbal intervention has turned into action which has helped the Yen rally >2% vs. the USD. Below is a chart looking at Yen positioning which has clearly been building up but not nearly as extreme as it was back in 2024.

If that wasn’t enough it’s also been a busy morning of economic data. The initial Q1 GDP reading came in at 2.0%, below consensus of 2.3% but picking up from 4Q’s 0.5%. Consumer spending rose 1.6% down from last quarter’s 1.9% while Business spending rose solidly (+10% non-residential fixed investment). March core PCE rose 0.3% m.m and 3.2% y.y , about in line with estimates. Headline was inline as well. Personal Income was strong, rising 0.6% in March, above consensus, while Spending was also inline and above February. Jobless claims remain quite low, falling below 190k while continuing claims fell below 1800k (see below). Treasury yields are lower across the curve with the 2yr down 7bp. 

The move lower in oil has helped Treasury yields pull back reversing a good portion of yesterday’s move higher and pretty much all of the post-Fed move. 

The decline in the USD is helping the metals complex move higher.  That’s helped lift precious metals. Ag is giving back some of the recent gains. Crypto continues to struggle to get any upside momentum. 

Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight. Amidst the intervention commentary the Nikkei fell 1%, after coming back from a holiday, but will close again starting next Monday. China was mostly lower with Hang Seng -1.3%, Shanghai +0.1%. The official manufacturing PMI was a bit better than expected though still hugging the unchanged level. Non-manufacturing came in slightly below estimates and fell from last month. The private RatingDog manufacturing survey came in stronger than expected and rose from last month. Markets will be closed on Friday. In Europe both the ECB and BOE left rates unchanged as expected but seemed to be moving closer to potential rate hikes with ECB Lagarde saying that was debated “at length”. During her press conference she acknowledge the risk of inflation was to the upside and growth to the downside but pushed back against the idea of “stagflation”.  European indices opened lower but closed near session highs helped by the oil reversal. 

Earnings are once again driving much of the sector level activity. We discussed the mega-cap tech stocks above. Eli Lilly, the healthcare mega-cap, is up ~10% after earnings and is driving much of the sector move but there were quite a few names reporting. Those reports have been met with a mixed response (+BMY/BAX/ALNY -ACHC/WAY/CAH/THC/MRK/CI). A mix of the hyperscaler Capex commentary and earnings are driving industrials higher. Caterpillar and Quanta Services are both up >10% and squarely fall into the data/energy infrastructure beneficiaries. The move in oil is also helping airlines and transportation stocks. The bond rally is helping yield oriented sectors recoup yesterday’s losses.  

Earnings continue to flow in with Apple and memory stocks in focus this evening. Oil majors Exxon and Chevron report tomorrow. ISM manufacturing is the main piece of economic data and I’m sure we’ll start to hear from some Fed officials. Let's Go Knicks!

After-Market: AAPL, ACA, ACCO, AEM, AIG, AJG, AMGN, ANGX, ATR, AX, BIO, BZH, CABO, CLX, CNO, COHU, CPT, CUBE, DLB, DXCM, EBS, EGO, EHC, EMN, FHI, FND, GDDY, HCC, HG, HR, HUN, ILMN, IMAX, INGM, INN, IVR, KWR, MHK, MTX, MTZ, NPKI, OPAD, PBR, PDM, PK, RBLX, RDDT, RHP, RMD, RYAN, SAFE, SAM, SEM, SKT, SNDK, SNDR, SPXC, SYK, TEAM, TWLO, UMH, WDC, WEAV, WHG, WY, ZETA

Pre-Market: AN, AON, ARES, ATMU, BEP, CHD, CL, CNK, CVEO, CVX, D, DINO, EAF, EL, FET, FRT, GTES, HBM, LAZ, LEA, LYB, NVT, OMF, PIPR, POR, PRLB, TEX, VRTS, WNC, WT, XHR, XOM

US:

Global: