STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/1/2026 (a/o 9:15am)
Good morning,
 
US equities closed out April almost as strongly as the Knicks did.  The S&P gained 1% yesterday, closing at a new record high. Breadth was solid with the equal-weight and Russell 2000 outperforming. Mega-cap tech earnings were the main story, along with news that yen intervention went from verbal to active. Dollar weakness lined up with a sharp reversal in Brent, which saw the front-month contract roll. The tech earnings were very strong as expected though stock reactions were mixed, PCE was inline and the initial read at Q1 GDP rose from Q1 but was a bit lower than estimates but still showed a resilient economy.
 
With most of Europe and Asia closed, S&P futures were trading around unchanged before news of a new proposal from Iran sent them higher, though they’ve come off their best levels. Apple is up 3% in the pre-market after reporting last night while becoming the latest to warn on memory/input prices.  TWLO, FIVN, TEAM, RDDT, ROKU are all up ~10% or more before the open on earnings. SNDK and WDC are lower despite very strong earnings and memory market commentary (see AAPL).
 

 
 
After a very busy calendar yesterday, today’s economic data slows considerably with ISM manufacturing after the Open the headliner. Treasury yields are about flat after falling 5-10bp across the curve yesterday. The US Dollar Index is modestly lower, with follow through from yesterday’s sharp drop on the yen-intervention.
 
  • US 2yr +1bps to 3.89%, 5yr +2bps to 4.03%, 10yr +1bps to 4.39%, 30yr +1bps to 4.98%
  • USD index: -$0.16 to $97.76
 
Brent Crude, now with July the front-month, is slightly higher after volatile trading yesterday as futures rolled. It didn’t move much on the latest Iran proposal news. Gold is down after gaining yesterday while other metals see modest gains. Bitcoin is higher, breaking above its 100d moving average and Ether is up as well.
 
 

 
 
Most global markets were closed overnight for May Day. The Yen is hovering around unchanged a day after authorities reportedly intervened to strengthen the currency. There was another sharp move ~2:45 am this morning which pushed prices from ~157.50 down to 155.50 though half of that move has since reversed. Tokyo CPI came in a touch better than expected while final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher. The Nikkei ended the session in the green but was slightly lower for the week. The UK is the only major European market that is open. Home prices surprisingly increased. FTSE 100 is down ~0.6%. NatWest is under pressure after earnings. Healthcare is underperforming with AZN down ~3% after an FDA advisory panel failed to back the benefit-risk profile of camizestrant in combination therapy. Miners are also pulling back with the commodities.
 

 
Earnings:
  • After-Market: AAPL, ACA, ACCO, AEM, AIG, AJG, AMGN, ANGX, ATR, AX, BIO, BZH, CABO, CLX, CNO, COHU, CPT, CUBE, DLB, DXCM, EBS, EGO, EHC, EMN, FHI, FND, GDDY, HCC, HG, HR, HUN, ILMN, IMAX, INGM, INN, IVR, KWR, MHK, MTX, MTZ, NPKI, OPAD, PBR, PDM, PK, RBLX, RDDT, RHP, RMD, RYAN, SAFE, SAM, SEM, SKT, SNDK, SNDR, SPXC, SYK, TEAM, TWLO, UMH, WDC, WEAV, WHG, WY, ZETA
  • Pre-Market: AN, AON, ARES, ATMU, BEP, CHD, CL, CNK, CVEO, CVX, D, DINO, EAF, EL, FET, FRT, GTES, HBM, LAZ, LEA, LYB, NVT, OMF, PIPR, POR, PRLB, TEX, VRTS, WNC, WT, XHR, XOM
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • 10:00am ISM Manufacturing
  • 1:00pm Rig Count
Global:
  • Tokyo Core CPI y.y: 1.5% vs 1.8% cons, prior 1.7%
  • South Korea Exports y.y: 48% vs 45.3% cons, prior 49.2%
  • Australia Commodity Prices y.y: 15.7% vs prior 12.7%


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