NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 11/18/2025
DOW 46,314 (-276), S&P 500 6,658 (-15), Russell 2000 2,362 (+21), NYSE FANG+ 16,130 (-103), ICE Brent Crude $64.70/barrel (+$0.50), Gold $4,069/oz (-$5), Bitcoin ~93.3k (+1498)
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average (~6,700) for the first time since April after testing the closely watched technical level on back-to-back Fridays. The trigger for the weakness which kicked in in the afternoon seemed to be more technical in nature as opposed to being driven by a headline. Like much of last week there was a move up the capitalization scale with large caps outperforming. The S&P 500 was down ~1% but small and mid-cap indices were down around twice that amount. Financials and energy underperformed while tech continued to be under pressure as the AI Bubble debate rolled on.
The selling continued overnight with particular weakness in tech heavy Asian indices with the Nikkei and Kospi both falling >3%. The crypto complex was also under pressure with Bitcoin breaking below 90k during Asian trading hours. S&P futures were down ~1% at the lows overnight but bounced modestly as European indices opened. The S&P 500 opened down ~0.5% but losses intensified amidst a wave of tech selling shortly after the open. The index fell ~1.5% at the lows, pretty much the expected intraday move with the VIX in the mid 20’s, before bouncing. Tech remains an anchor but other equities are trading pretty well with the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 and small/midcap indices all moving higher.
AI continues to be the hot topic with plenty of news flow. There was another circular strategic partnership announcement. Anthropic announced it would invest $30B in Azure compute capacity while Nvidia and Microsoft will invest $10B/$5B in the company. There are also reports that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund-backed AI company, Humain, is planning to announce collaborations with a number of US companies. This ties in with the Saudi’s Crown Prince MBS visiting the White House, but it is unclear whether this is in addition to what was announced back in May. Google launched its new Gemini 3.0 and in a BBC interview, Alphabet’s CEO commented that there’s some “irrationality” in AI right now and a burst bubble would bring widespread fallout. However, he also said it’s an “extraordinary moment”. Microsoft’s Ignite conference kicks off this afternoon as well and don’t forget Nvidia earnings are after the close tomorrow. This hasn’t been enough to stop the bleeding with tech stocks remaining under pressure.
Outside of the barrage of AI related news we are starting to get some economic data and more Fed commentary. Backlogged claims data was released for the weeks of October 11 and 18. Initial claims of 232k for 10/18 increased from 219k on 10/11. Continuing claims were 1.957ml and 1.947ml respectively. The ADP report improved from last week but still showed a decline. Jobs fell an average of 2.5k/week for the period ending November 1, versus last week’s report of an 11.3k average decline. Yesterday during the equity selloff there wasn’t much of a safe haven bid in Treasuries. That briefly started to show up overnight but as equities have bounce that bid has faded leaving yields just slightly lower but about 4bps off the overnight lows.
After a brief lull earnings are about to pick up a bit again as we will start to hear from the late cycle tech and retail companies. This morning Home Depot results were underwhelming with management highlighting a cautious consumer and the continued headwinds in the housing market. Consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 down >1.5%. Amazon which caught a downgrade overnight is down >3% accounting for a good portion of those losses. Tomorrow’s earnings include Lowe’s, Target and TJX.
Most other sectors have moved higher throughout the session. Healthcare continues its recent outperformance. Medtronic had strong results sending the stock higher while Merck is also up ~4% after a Phase 2 update on a its cardiovascular drug Winrevair. Managed care stocks are under pressure after Trump Truthed, “The only healthcare I will support or approve is sending the money directly back to the people, with nothing going to the big, fat, rich insurance companies, who have made trillions, and ripped off America long enough”.
Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow earnings will be the primary focus with retail earnings ahead of the open and Nvidia earnings after the close. Overnight there are a couple of catalysts that could impact global fixed income markets including a 20yr auction in Japan and the UK inflation data. In the US mortgage apps and trade data will be released. In the afternoon there is a 20yr auction and the FOMC Minutes will be released.
Other Asset Classes:
Earnings/Corporate Updates:
US:
- Recouping early losses after the first close below the 50d since April
- Tech underperforms with more circular deals announced
- Bitcoin briefly breaks below 90k
- Eco data and retail earnings starting to flow in
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside The ICE House
- Episode 496: CRH CEO Jim Mintern on Building the Future of the Building Materials Industry
- November 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Number of Highly Qualified Refinance Candidates Reaches 3.5-Year High Amid Easing Mortgage Rates
- ETF Central: Co-Founder & Managing Partner of Merchant Investment Management Bryan Staff
- Market Story Lines
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average (~6,700) for the first time since April after testing the closely watched technical level on back-to-back Fridays. The trigger for the weakness which kicked in in the afternoon seemed to be more technical in nature as opposed to being driven by a headline. Like much of last week there was a move up the capitalization scale with large caps outperforming. The S&P 500 was down ~1% but small and mid-cap indices were down around twice that amount. Financials and energy underperformed while tech continued to be under pressure as the AI Bubble debate rolled on.
The selling continued overnight with particular weakness in tech heavy Asian indices with the Nikkei and Kospi both falling >3%. The crypto complex was also under pressure with Bitcoin breaking below 90k during Asian trading hours. S&P futures were down ~1% at the lows overnight but bounced modestly as European indices opened. The S&P 500 opened down ~0.5% but losses intensified amidst a wave of tech selling shortly after the open. The index fell ~1.5% at the lows, pretty much the expected intraday move with the VIX in the mid 20’s, before bouncing. Tech remains an anchor but other equities are trading pretty well with the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 and small/midcap indices all moving higher.
AI continues to be the hot topic with plenty of news flow. There was another circular strategic partnership announcement. Anthropic announced it would invest $30B in Azure compute capacity while Nvidia and Microsoft will invest $10B/$5B in the company. There are also reports that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund-backed AI company, Humain, is planning to announce collaborations with a number of US companies. This ties in with the Saudi’s Crown Prince MBS visiting the White House, but it is unclear whether this is in addition to what was announced back in May. Google launched its new Gemini 3.0 and in a BBC interview, Alphabet’s CEO commented that there’s some “irrationality” in AI right now and a burst bubble would bring widespread fallout. However, he also said it’s an “extraordinary moment”. Microsoft’s Ignite conference kicks off this afternoon as well and don’t forget Nvidia earnings are after the close tomorrow. This hasn’t been enough to stop the bleeding with tech stocks remaining under pressure.
Outside of the barrage of AI related news we are starting to get some economic data and more Fed commentary. Backlogged claims data was released for the weeks of October 11 and 18. Initial claims of 232k for 10/18 increased from 219k on 10/11. Continuing claims were 1.957ml and 1.947ml respectively. The ADP report improved from last week but still showed a decline. Jobs fell an average of 2.5k/week for the period ending November 1, versus last week’s report of an 11.3k average decline. Yesterday during the equity selloff there wasn’t much of a safe haven bid in Treasuries. That briefly started to show up overnight but as equities have bounce that bid has faded leaving yields just slightly lower but about 4bps off the overnight lows.
After a brief lull earnings are about to pick up a bit again as we will start to hear from the late cycle tech and retail companies. This morning Home Depot results were underwhelming with management highlighting a cautious consumer and the continued headwinds in the housing market. Consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 down >1.5%. Amazon which caught a downgrade overnight is down >3% accounting for a good portion of those losses. Tomorrow’s earnings include Lowe’s, Target and TJX.
Most other sectors have moved higher throughout the session. Healthcare continues its recent outperformance. Medtronic had strong results sending the stock higher while Merck is also up ~4% after a Phase 2 update on a its cardiovascular drug Winrevair. Managed care stocks are under pressure after Trump Truthed, “The only healthcare I will support or approve is sending the money directly back to the people, with nothing going to the big, fat, rich insurance companies, who have made trillions, and ripped off America long enough”.
Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow earnings will be the primary focus with retail earnings ahead of the open and Nvidia earnings after the close. Overnight there are a couple of catalysts that could impact global fixed income markets including a 20yr auction in Japan and the UK inflation data. In the US mortgage apps and trade data will be released. In the afternoon there is a 20yr auction and the FOMC Minutes will be released.
Other Asset Classes:
Earnings/Corporate Updates:
- Pre-Market: ACM, AS, BIDU, BRBR, ENR, HP, HD, MDT
- After-Market: DLB, LZB, SQM
- Pre-Market: BLSH, DY, LOW, LUXE, TGT, TJX, VVV, VIK
US:
- Weekly claims (Oct. 18): 232k vs. 223k cons., prior 219k
- Continuing claims (Oct. 18): 1957k vs. prior 1947k
- Continuing claims (Oct. 11): 1947k vs. cons. 1930k, prior 1916k
- ADP weekly employment report: -2.5k vs. prior -11.25k
- NY Fed Services Activity: -21.7 vs. prior -23.6
- Factory Orders (August): 1.4% vs. 1.4% cons,. prior -1.3%
- NAHB Housing Index: 38 vs. 37 cons., prior 37
- 4:30pm API Crude Inventories
- Canada Housing Starts: 232.8k vs. 265k cons., prior 279.2k
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