STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 6/29/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 52,233 (+357), S&P 500 7,433 (+79), Russell 2000 2,998 (-12), NYSE FANG+ 16,807 (+252), ICE Brent Crude $73.15/barrel (+$1.16), Gold $4,036/oz (-$61), Bitcoin ~60.3k (+488)
- Bounces within Tech
- Flood of Media and Telecom news
- Supreme Court issues rulings on Trump firings
- Crude, yields slightly higher; Iran talks tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 543: America250 Chair Rosie Rios on Unity, Storytelling, and America's 250 Years
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 all hugged the unchanged line on Friday as the Russell reconstitution drove big, though expected, volumes to end the week. The equal-weight outperformed however, finishing up 0.3%. Tech was mixed as the white-hot memory names gave back a good chunk of their Micron-earnings-induced gains, while hyperscalers and software bounced. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2%, closing just below its 50d ma on Friday after toying with the level the whole week.
The MAC Desk was blessed with a Knicks championship run that provided a wealthy source of commentary to fill this space and provide market similes. With that over, we thought we could pivot to the Yankees to fill that role. A four game sweep by the Red Sox over the weekend has us renewing our search. However, maybe it’s a metaphor for how investors are trying to figure out what comes next out of the AI trade.
Briefly touching on macro issues, the US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend, but an agreement to end the latest exchange and hold a new round of talks on Tuesday seems to have been reached. Equity futures traded higher overnight, and the S&P 500 opened up 0.5% to start this holiday-shortened week, reclaiming its 50d ma and moving higher throughout the session. Unlike last week, its mega cap tech leading the charge today. The NYSE 100 Index and IGV software ETF are up over 2%, and ICE Semis index up over 3%. The equal-weight is flat and small caps are lower. Thematic, high beta groups are mixed. Neoclouds are mostly lower (but the hyperscalers are higher), Quantum computers and especially space names higher. The later group is benefitting from a flow of Corp Dev news. Rare Earths are mixed.
Tech, and the broader market overall, continues to grapple with the compute and component pricing issue. In the wake of Apple (and Microsoft) announcing sharp prices increases due to surging chip prices, the company has lobbied the US government for approval to buy memory chips from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Whether that was a ploy to get suppliers to allocate more to them and kickstart capacity buildouts, or is a bona-fide move to source from China, remains to be seen. It was interesting then, to see that the South Korean government announced a huge plan for Samsung and HK Hynix to expand capacity (more on that below). Separately, the FT reported that Google was unable to meet Meta’s entire Gemini capacity requests, which delayed some of Meta’s internal AI projects. The DRAM memory ETF is down 2% today, the weak link in the Tech space, but is well off the day’s lows. MU was down 10% but has cut that to only -1% currently. The pockets of weakness were prominent early on but staged a strong comeback midway through the morning (chart below, white line=XLK Tech ETF).
It may be a short, thinly traded holiday week, but there’s a lot of action in the media and telecom space today to take attention from all this AI talk. SpaceX (+4%) and Charter (+12%, well off its highs) are discussing partnering on consumer mobile phone service, according to reports. BT Group (+1%) and Verizon (-5%) are merging their international operations in a JV with ~$4b in revenue, allowing both carriers to focus on their respective domestic markets. Comcast (+6%, well off its highs) announced it was splitting its media (NBCUniversal) and cable/connectivity businesses into two publicly traded companies. Also, Rocket Lab (+15%, near its highs) is buying satellite phone operator Iridium (+25%) for $8B, creating a more robust challenge to SpaceX’s Starlink. It also follows Amazon’s pending deal to acquire Globalstar. There’s more action in other sectors as well. Williams (-4%) is close to acquiring Momentum Midstream for ~$6B according to reports, adding to the company’s gas pipeline capacity. Construction materials supplier Martin Marietta (-6%) is merging with Lhoist North America in a $13.5B (EV) deal.
Comm Services and Consumer Discretionary are leading today with Tech a distant third. Besides GOOG and META, Charter and Comcast are powering Comm Services higher while other cable and carrier names come under pressure (VZ, T -5%). Likewise, AMZN’s 4% gain is driving Discretionary, while the rest of the sector trades mixed. Nike is up modestly ahead of earnings tomorrow. With the tech strength, Staples, Utilities and Real Estate are lagging, but Materials is at the bottom of the pile with across-the-board weakness.
US treasury yields are slightly higher across most of the curve while the US Dollar Index is lower, continuing to pull back from its recent run up to 101.50.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.11%, 5yr +1bps to 4.14%, 10yr +0bps to 4.37%, 30yr -1bps to 4.85%
- USD index: -$0.24 to $100.89
The Supreme Court decided (5-4) that President Trump can not remove Lisa Cook from her position at the Fed while the lower courts debate the issue, so its not settled yet. In a separate decision, however, the Court upheld Trump's firing of an FTC Commissioner, giving Trump "free rein to fire officials at other independent agencies for any reason" according to the WSJ (other than the Fed).
Brent crude is trading up about 1%, still below its 200d ma ~$75 but near its highs in a small range so far today. US nat gas is lower, with the August contract testing its 50d ma after getting rejected at the 100d, but Dutch gas is up 5%. Precious metals are lower. Gold is giving back Friday’s gains as equities rally, trading ~$4050. Silver is down too, attempting to continue a modest bounce after sharper declines in the early part of last week. Bitcoin and ETH were down about 1% with Bitcoin struggling to hold above $60K, however both have reversed higher. Strategy announced a series of programs to shore up support for its numerous investment vehicles like STRC. The initiatives include (1) a USD Reserve policy (currently ~$2.5B) that directs Reserves to be used only to support the payment of dividends on Strategy's preferred stock and debt interest, and (2) selling up to $1.25B in Bitcoin to fund the reserve. The news is helping so far as MSTR trades up 8% and STRC gains over 10%. BNY announced that Circle’s USDC will be the first stablecoin supported on the bank’s Digital Asset Custody platform. The agreement will allow BNY clients to store USDC in their wallets at BNY, and transfer, mint and burn for US dollars.
European equities didn’t do much as the major regional indexes ended flat to slightly lower. Tech, Media and Energy led. Consumer, miners/materials, communication and autos lagged. Spain CPI was largely inline while EU lending rose modestly. The favorite to become the new UK PM, Andy Burnham, gave an economic speech today in which he said he plans to bring, “the biggest change in our lifetimes to the way the country is run,” including delegating more power to local governments and discussed the “reindustrialization” of the UK, among other topics.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.2% overnight. Big Tech names were mostly softer (Kioxia +4%, SoftBank -5%) following US action on Friday. In China the Hang Seng and Shanghai were both up over 1%. Hang Seng Tech bounced over 3%. Profits for computer, communication and electronic equipment makers jumped over 100% through May according to data released this weekend. Baidu’s (+6%) AI Chip segment Kunlunxin is eyeing a $50B Hong Kong IPO, according to reports, which may include investors buying multiples of their IPO allocations in the company’s chips. South Korea’s Kospi was slightly lower. Almost every stock was in the green expect for tech giants Samsung and SK Hynix. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced the two companies will expand chipmaking capacity by investing over $500B to build two new fabs each in South Korea, collaborating with the Korean government. Both stocks finished off their lows of the day, rebounding into their close. The news comes after Apple’s price increases and evaluation of buying from Chinese suppliers. It also follows media reports last week that said Samsung would announce a decade-long, ~$650B investment program across semis, data centers, batteries and displays.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AVAV, CNXC
- Pre-Market (Tues): None
- After-Market (Tues): NKE, PRGS, STZ
Economic Data:
US:
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing: 0 vs prior 0.4
Global:
- China Jan-May Industrial Profits: +18.8% y.y vs 18.2% Jan-April
- May Industrial Profits: 21.1% vs 24.7% prior
- Japan May Retail Sales y.y: 5.3% vs 3.2% cons, prior 2.8%
- India Industrial Production y.y: 5.1% vs 4.7% cons, prior 4.9%
- Spain CPI y.y: 3.2% vs 3.2% cons, prior 3.2%
- Core: 2.9% vs prior 3.0%
- Spain Retail Sales m.m: 0.6% vs prior -1.5%
- Europe Loans to Companies / Households (May): 4.0% / 3.1% vs prior 3.4% / 3.0%
- Europe Economic Sentiment: 95.0 vs 94.3 cons, prior 93.7
- 1:30pm Lagarde Speech
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 6/29/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
The S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 all hugged the unchanged line on Friday as the Russell reconstitution drove big, though expected, volumes to end the week. The equal-weight outperformed however, finishing up 0.3%. Tech was mixed as the white-hot memory names gave back a good chunk of their Micron-earnings-induced gains on Thursday, while hyperscalers and software bounced. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2%, closing just below its 50d ma on Friday after toying with the level the whole week.
The Yankees are doing a terrible job of replacing the Knicks as a source of commentary for us on the MAC Desk. Getting swept by the Red Sox over the weekend? Bleh. As for the Mets…let’s just move on to macro topics. The US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend, but an agreement to end the latest exchange and hold a new round of talks on Tuesday was reached. With a low level of economic and earnings data today, corporate news flow is center stage today. Equity futures traded higher overnight and are near best levels as we begin a holiday-shortened week. The S&P looks poised to regain the 50d at the Open.
Tech, and the broader market overall, continues to grapple with the compute price issue. In the wake of Apple (and Microsoft) announcing sharp prices increases due to surging chip prices, the company has lobbied the US government for approval to buy memory chips from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Separately, the FT reported that Google was unable to meet Meta’s entire Gemini capacity requests, which delayed some of Meta’s internal AI projects.
It may be a short, thinly traded holiday week, but there’s a lot of action in the media and telecom space today. SpaceX (+2%) and Charter (+25%) are discussing partnering on consumer mobile phone service, according to reports. BT Group (+1%) and Verizon (-1%) are merging their international operations in a JV with ~$4b in revenue, allowing both carriers to focus on their respective domestic markets. Comcast (+20%) announced it was splitting its media (NBCUniversal) and cable/connectivity businesses into two publicly traded companies. Also, Rocket Lab (+10%) is buying satellite phone operator Iridium (+20%) for $8B, creating a more robust challenge to SpaceX’s Starlink. It also follows Amazon’s pending deal to acquire Globalstar. There’s more action in other sectors as well. Williams (flat) is close to acquiring Momentum Midstream for ~$6B according to reports, adding to Williams’ gas pipeline capacity. Construction materials supplier Martin Marietta (-3%) is merging with Lhoist North America in a $13.5B (EV) deal.
US treasury yields are slightly higher across most of the curve while the US Dollar Index is slightly lower, continuing to pull back from its recent run up to 101.50.
European equities aren’t doing much, hovering around unchanged. The favorite to become the new UK PM, Andy Burnham, gives a speech on the UK economy today. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.2% overnight. Spain CPI was largely inline while EU lending rose modestly. Tech was soft following US action on Friday. In China the Hang Seng and Shanghai were both up over 1%. Hang Seng Tech bounced over 3%. Profits for computer, communication and electronic equipment makers jumped over 100% through May according to data released this weekend. Baidu’s AI Chip segment Kunlunxin is eyeing a $50B Hong Kong IPO, according to reports, which may include investors buying multiples of their IPO allocations in the company’s chips. South Korea’s Samsung and HK Hynix will expand chipmaking capacity by investing over $500B to build new fabs, collaborating with the Korean government.
Brent crude is trading up about 1%, still below its 200d ma ~$75. US nat gas is lower but Dutch gas is up 3%. Precious metals are lower. Gold is giving back Friday’s gains as it trades ~$4050. Bitcoin and ETH are flat to slightly higher, as Bitcoin tries to regain $60K. Strategy announced a series of programs to shore up support for its numerous investment vehicles like STRC. The initiatives include (1) a USD Reserve policy (currently ~$2.5B) that directs Reserves to be used only to support the payment of dividends on Strategy's preferred stock and debt interest, and (2) selling up to $1.25B in Bitcoin to fund the reserve.
Earnings:
US:
Global:
The S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 all hugged the unchanged line on Friday as the Russell reconstitution drove big, though expected, volumes to end the week. The equal-weight outperformed however, finishing up 0.3%. Tech was mixed as the white-hot memory names gave back a good chunk of their Micron-earnings-induced gains on Thursday, while hyperscalers and software bounced. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2%, closing just below its 50d ma on Friday after toying with the level the whole week.
The Yankees are doing a terrible job of replacing the Knicks as a source of commentary for us on the MAC Desk. Getting swept by the Red Sox over the weekend? Bleh. As for the Mets…let’s just move on to macro topics. The US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend, but an agreement to end the latest exchange and hold a new round of talks on Tuesday was reached. With a low level of economic and earnings data today, corporate news flow is center stage today. Equity futures traded higher overnight and are near best levels as we begin a holiday-shortened week. The S&P looks poised to regain the 50d at the Open.
Tech, and the broader market overall, continues to grapple with the compute price issue. In the wake of Apple (and Microsoft) announcing sharp prices increases due to surging chip prices, the company has lobbied the US government for approval to buy memory chips from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Separately, the FT reported that Google was unable to meet Meta’s entire Gemini capacity requests, which delayed some of Meta’s internal AI projects.
It may be a short, thinly traded holiday week, but there’s a lot of action in the media and telecom space today. SpaceX (+2%) and Charter (+25%) are discussing partnering on consumer mobile phone service, according to reports. BT Group (+1%) and Verizon (-1%) are merging their international operations in a JV with ~$4b in revenue, allowing both carriers to focus on their respective domestic markets. Comcast (+20%) announced it was splitting its media (NBCUniversal) and cable/connectivity businesses into two publicly traded companies. Also, Rocket Lab (+10%) is buying satellite phone operator Iridium (+20%) for $8B, creating a more robust challenge to SpaceX’s Starlink. It also follows Amazon’s pending deal to acquire Globalstar. There’s more action in other sectors as well. Williams (flat) is close to acquiring Momentum Midstream for ~$6B according to reports, adding to Williams’ gas pipeline capacity. Construction materials supplier Martin Marietta (-3%) is merging with Lhoist North America in a $13.5B (EV) deal.
US treasury yields are slightly higher across most of the curve while the US Dollar Index is slightly lower, continuing to pull back from its recent run up to 101.50.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.11%, 5yr +1bps to 4.14%, 10yr +1bps to 4.38%, 30yr -1bps to 4.86%
- USD index: -$0.09 to $101.04
European equities aren’t doing much, hovering around unchanged. The favorite to become the new UK PM, Andy Burnham, gives a speech on the UK economy today. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.2% overnight. Spain CPI was largely inline while EU lending rose modestly. Tech was soft following US action on Friday. In China the Hang Seng and Shanghai were both up over 1%. Hang Seng Tech bounced over 3%. Profits for computer, communication and electronic equipment makers jumped over 100% through May according to data released this weekend. Baidu’s AI Chip segment Kunlunxin is eyeing a $50B Hong Kong IPO, according to reports, which may include investors buying multiples of their IPO allocations in the company’s chips. South Korea’s Samsung and HK Hynix will expand chipmaking capacity by investing over $500B to build new fabs, collaborating with the Korean government.
Brent crude is trading up about 1%, still below its 200d ma ~$75. US nat gas is lower but Dutch gas is up 3%. Precious metals are lower. Gold is giving back Friday’s gains as it trades ~$4050. Bitcoin and ETH are flat to slightly higher, as Bitcoin tries to regain $60K. Strategy announced a series of programs to shore up support for its numerous investment vehicles like STRC. The initiatives include (1) a USD Reserve policy (currently ~$2.5B) that directs Reserves to be used only to support the payment of dividends on Strategy's preferred stock and debt interest, and (2) selling up to $1.25B in Bitcoin to fund the reserve.
Earnings:
- Pre-Market: None
- After-Market: AVAV, CNXC
- Pre-Market (Tues): NKE, PRGS, STZ,
US:
- 10:30am Dallas Manufacturing
Global:
- China Jan-May Industrial Profits: +18.8% y.y vs 18.2% Jan-April
- May Industrial Profits: 21.1% vs 24.7% prior
- Japan May Retail Sales y.y: 5.3% vs 3.2% cons, prior 2.8%
- India Industrial Production y.y: 5.1% vs 4.7% cons, prior 4.9%
- Spain CPI y.y: 3.2% vs 3.2% cons, prior 3.2%
- Core: 2.9% vs prior 3.0%
- Spain Retail Sales m.m: 0.6% vs prior -1.5%
- Europe Loans to Companies / Households (May): 4.0% / 3.1% vs prior 3.4% / 3.0%
- Europe Economic Sentiment: 95.0 vs 94.3 cons, prior 93.7
- 1:30pm Lagarde Speech
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