Good morning,
 
Welcome back! Hopefully you enjoyed the celebrations over the long holiday weekend. Last Thursday US markets were mixed following a disappointing jobs report and concerns about the AI data center buildout. The S&P 500 ended the session down 0.6% but closed the week up just over 1%. Semis, memory and other AI adjacent stocks sold off sharply. Defensive/yield-oriented sectors outperformed.
 
Today is the official launch of Trump accounts which will be celebrated with a remote bell in the Oval Office. Ahead of a very exciting day of soccer a tech bounce is helping S&P futures rebound ~0.4%. Dow and Russell futures are hovering around unchanged. Semi/memory stocks which got hammered last week after the Bloomberg Meta report are bouncing back after SemiAnalysis refutes some of that negativity. There are plenty of other headlines within the space (see bullets below). A couple M&A transactions have also been announced this morning including Solstice buying Element Solution for ~$14.5B in cash and stock and Lockheed buying Ultra Maritime for $3.5B.
 

• ARM CEO highlighted very strong CPU demand
• Broadcom extended its collaboration with Apple through 2031
• Micron announced a long-term Strategic Customer Agreement with Ford
• Anthropic signed a 20yr lease agreement with TeraWulf at its Justified Data campus in Kentucky
• According to SemiAnalysis Nvidia’s next gen server rack has been delayed

 

 
Treasury yields are a touch lower this morning. After the open S&P Global final services PMI will be released followed by ISM Services at 10:00. Fed Waller will be speaking at 11:00.
 

• US 2yr -1bps to 4.12%, 5yr -1bps to 4.20%, 10yr -1bps to 4.46%, 30yr +1bps to 4.98%
• USD index: +$0.25 to $100.88

 
Quiet start to the week overseas. Markets in Asia were mixed. The Nikkei ended around unchanged. The Yen is under pressure again reversing the post jobs report rally as there was no subsequent intervention trading back ~162.30¥/$. Long-dated JGB’s were under pressure ahead of a 30yr auction this evening. South Korea’s Kospi was down modestly after bouncing on Friday. Samsung earnings this evening will be focal point with SK Hynix US ADR listing later this week. 24-hour trading in the South Korean Won began last night. Apple supplier Hon Hai had strong earnings results and pointed to strong AI demand. Most European indices are modestly lower giving back Friday’s rally. EU retail sales came in a touch below estimates while PPI was in line at 0.2% m/m down from 0.7% in the prior month.
 

 
Oil prices are slightly lower but have bounced from the overnight lows. OPEC+ announced that it would increase output by 188k/ bp/d. Metals extended last week’s post jobs bounce but are off the best levels. Ag is moving higher amidst weather concerns. Coffee and Cocoa are the biggest movers up 4% and 8%, respectively. Crypto had been moving higher throughout the weekend. Prices peaked around midnight and had been drifting a bit lower this morning. Bitcoin took a leg lower shortly after 8:00 after Strategy disclosed had sold ~$225ml. Bitcoin fell from ~63k to just under 62k on the headlines.
 

 
There have been a handful of earnings. Nike is modestly lower as the company continues to highlight a difficult operating environment. Constellation Brands and General Mills are both higher after their results. On a somewhat related note, Kroger is buying Giant Eagle for $1.65B.  
 
Economic Data:
US:

• 9:45 S&P Services PMI (final)
• 10:00 ISM Services
• 11:00 Fed Waller

Global:

• EU Retail Sales: 0.2% vs. 0.3% cons., prior -0.3%
• EU PPI: 0.2%/5.9% m.m/y.y vs. 0.2%/5.7% cons., prior 0.7%/5%
• 12:00 ECB Lagarde