STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 7/15/26 (a/o 12:00 pm)
DOW 52,486 (-23), S&P 500 7,533 (-11), Russell 2000 2,963 (-2), NYSE FANG+ 17,767 (+137), ICE Brent Crude $84.62/barrel (-$0.11), Gold $4,037/oz (-$33), Bitcoin ~64.9k (+263)
- Testing red and green today
- Mixed tech tape
- Another cool inflation print
- Yields, Dollar lower
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
- Inside the ICE House
- NYSE Texas: Buda Juice CEO Horatio Lonsdale-Hands on Ultra Fresh Growth
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday most US major indices ended modestly higher after better-than-expected inflation data and strong bank earnings. Tech was the primary driver of gains with chip and memory stocks recouping some of the previous day’s losses. IBM traded sharply lower after a negative pre-announcement which initially put pressure on the software sector. However the group recouped the early losses with cybersecurity ending sharply higher (HACK +5%). Healthcare led to the downside after HCA preannounced, beating top and bottom lines but moving guidance lower on a negative mix shift from higher uninsured patient volumes and lower surgery volumes, which also weighed heavily on medtech and equipment stocks.
Futures were trading around unchanged throughout the overnight session and moved higher after this morning’s PPI data came in better (lower) than expected. This follows yesterday’s cool CPI print, further easing inflation concerns. The S&P 500 opened up 0.4% and has traded in a relatively tight range. Just before noon the index moved lower on reports of US strikes on Iranian agriculture facilities, but CENTCOM said those were false reports. That was followed up with reports of explosions in Kuwait. No word on GOTHS deployment yet (Guardians of the Hormuz Strait, for those not aware yet). The S&P is currently down 0.2% at the LOD. Yields are lower, helping small caps outperform while the equal-weight S&P trades inline.
We’re on Day Two of earnings season with a few comments on some of the reports below:
ASML (flat) put up a very strong beat and raise overnight, highlighting robust demand and line-of-sight for several years. The company will increase capacity 30% in 2027, and is looking into another 30% increase for 2028. Chip testing equipment firm AEHR (+20%) also reported strong results and a bullish outlook.
Financials - Morgan Stanley (-1%) followed suit with its peers putting up strong numbers pretty much across all segments. BlackRock (+7%) beat earnings estimates while AUM also exceeded expectations. Bank of NY and PNC are both higher after solid reports.
Healthcare - Both J&J and Elevance are trading lower. J&J raised guidance but there seems to be some focus on slightly disappointing medtech results, while Elevance had strong momentum coming into the print and guidance likely disappointed.
Industrials - Pentair (-15%) negatively pre-announced with Q2 sales expected to fall 17% vs. prior guidance of 1% driven by a destocking of pool inventories. The company’s CFO is also stepping down.
Staples - Conagra (flat, rebounding off its lows) was inline-ish and the company cut its dividend, while organic growth was flat.
Tech is seeing mixed results. Semis and memory names began flat to slightly lower but have fallen throughout the morning (NYSE Semis -5%, DRAM -8%). Part of it may be due to ASML’s capacity increases stoking historical cyclical concerns of eventually creating oversupplied conditions. On the other hand, software and hyperscalers are up on the day. Software bounced strongly off its lows of the day yesterday and continues higher today, though is off best levels.
The megacaps are driving Comm Services and Consumer Discretionary to the top of the board today. There’s strength across both sectors, however, including media/telecom, travel/leisure and retailers. Financials are broadly stronger as well outside of insurance, led by Blackrock’s 7% earnings pop. PayPal is up 15% on news Stripe and Advent offered to acquire it. Oil’s early weakness put Energy at the bottom today, though crude is off its lows. Tech, Industrials (Pentair sympathy, electric/construction), and Materials (miners, ag/fertilizer) are also lower.
On the heels of yesterday’s cooler-than-expected CPI report, today’s PPI also came in cooler and last month’s readings revised lower. Headline PPI fell -0.3% (vs. +0.1% cons) while core was up 0.2% (vs. 0.4% cons). Declines were driven by final demand for goods, down 1.4%, while services were up 0.2%. Final Demand Trade Services (margins), which has been volatile, drove 60% of the increases in Services. And most of that increase looks to be driven by fuel retailing.
NY Fed President Williams spoke this morning, reiterating his belief we’re past the peak of inflation. And its Day Two of not only earnings but also of Fed Chair Warsh’s Congressional Testimony, this time appearing before the Senate. Treasury yields fell following the PPI print currently down about 2-5bp across the curve. That has helped push the Dollar Index lower as well. The Beige Book comes out this afternoon. The Empire Manufacturing Survey was better than expected and improved from the prior month. New Orders rose sharply while Prices Paid and Received both fell. Canada’s central bank kept rates unchanged as expected.
- US 2yr -5bps to 4.15%, 5yr -5bps to 4.28%, 10yr -3bps to 4.56%, 30yr -2bps to 5.09%
- USD index: -$0.21 to $100.51
Yesterday US led tech bounce helped most markets in Asia move higher overnight. The Kospi was up 6.2%, reversing a good portion of this week’s losses ahead of a rate decision tomorrow. Samsung denied reports that it was considering a US ADR. Hyundai workers in South Korea are on a partial strike over concerns about humanoid robots taking over jobs. The Nikkei also ended in the green up 1.5%. There was a big data dump in China overnight. GDP disappointed but retail sales and industrial production were both better than expected. The Shanghai Composite ended modestly lower. Tech stocks pushed the Hang Seng up 1.5%. European was mixed. Industrial production weakened in May’s data. Germany’s DAX fell 0.5% but finished off its lows. ASML’s earnings were a big event but the stock was around flat in local trading. Luxury outperformed after strong Richemont results. Chemicals underperformed despite BASF (-3%) raising guidance.
Hostilities continued in the Middle East overnight with new reports hitting around noon. Brent pulled back from its highest levels today, which coincided with the 50/100d ma just over $86. It then bounced off its lows and is currently around flat. Inventories returned to their downward trend in this morning’s EIA report, after an unexpected increase last week. The API report last night showed a very small decline in stocks. Natural gas is modestly higher.
Precious metals rose yesterday and gold jumped today on the PPI print this morning, but has since reversed that gain and is now modestly lower. Silver is seeing more pronounced weakness. Copper was flat but now slightly lower. Wheat is moving higher on the continued conflict in Russia and a heatwave. Crypto is extending yesterday’s gains with Bitcoin testing $65k and Ethereum moving above $1,900, on its way for a potential test of $2K and the 100d ma. The WSJ is reporting that the DTCC plans to run a pilot tokenization for Treasuries and stocks potentially in October, though plans were initially discussed in May.
Earnings:
- After-Market: HOMB, JBHT, UAL
- Pre-Market (Thrs): ABT, CBSH, CFG, GE, MAN, PLD, STT, TSM, UNH, USB
- After-Market (Thrs): AA, CNS, FNB, ISRG, NFLX
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage Apps: -7.3% w/w vs prior -0.6%
- Refis: 3.5% vs prior -4.1%
- 30yr Rate - 6.65% prior 6.58%
- PPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 5.5% vs 0% / 6.2% cons, prior 0.6% / 6.0% (revised down from 1.1% / 6.5%)
- Core PPI: 0.2% / 4.7% vs. 0.4% / 5.2% cons. prior 0.1% / 4.6% (revised down from 0.4% / 4.9%)
- Empire Manufacturing: 15.6 vs 9.2 cons, prior 5.7
- Oil Inventories: -1.693M vs -2.6M cons, prior 2.998M
- API inventories (Tues AMC): -0.056M vs -2.7M cons, prior -0.399M
- 12:00 NOPA Crush
- 1:00 Fed Cook
- 2:00 Fed Beige Book
Global:
- China Imports: 36.0% vs 24% cons, prior 27.4%
- China Exports: 27.0% vs 18.2% cons, prior 19.4%
- China Trade Balance: $125.6B vs $120.6B cons, prior $105.4B
- Germany Wholesale Prices m.m: -0.7% vs 0.5% cons, prior -0.6%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/15/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday most US major indices ended modestly higher after the better-than-expected inflation data and strong bank earnings. Tech was the primary driver of gains with chip and memory stocks recouping some of the previous day’s losses. IBM traded sharply lower after a negative pre-announcement which initially put pressure on the software sector however, much of the group recouped early losses with cybersecurity ending the day sharply higher (HACK +4.6%). Healthcare led to the downside after HCA preannounced, beating top and bottom lines but moving guidance lower on a negative mix shift from higher uninsured patient volumes and lower surgery volumes, which also weighed heavily on medtech and equipment stocks.
Futures were trading around unchanged levels throughout the overnight session but have moved higher after this morning’s PPI data came in better than expected. We are on day two of earnings season with some more details below ASML results are helping chip and equipment stocks in the pre-market. Financial results continue to look solid.
On the heels of yesterday’s better than expected CPI report PPI also was better than expected along with last month’s readings being revised lower. Headline PPI fell 0.3% (vs. +0.1% cons) while core was up 0.2% (vs. 0.4% cons) declines were driven by final demand for goods which were down 1.4% while services were up 0.2%. Fed Williams was also speaking this morning reiterating his belief we are past the peak of inflation. Treasury yields were a touch higher overnight but have moved lower following the data. The 2yr is down another 5bps today while the long end is down 2-3bps. The USD index is a touch lower.
Yesterday US led tech bounce helped most markets in Asia move higher overnight. The Kospi was up 6.2% reversing a good portion of this week’s losses ahead of tomorrow’s central bank rate decision. Samsung denied reports that it was considering a US ADR. The Nikkei also ended in the green up 1.5%. There was a big data dump in China overnight. GDP disappointed but retail sales and industrial production were both better than expected. The Shanghai Composite ended modestly lower. Tech stocks pushed the Hang Seng up 1.5%. Most European indices are trading modestly lower but off the worst levels. ASML (+3.5%) earnings is helping tech, luxury is outperforming after strong Richemont results. Chemicals are underperforming despite BASF raising guidance.
Kinetic activity continues in Iran helping to keep a bid under oil prices. ICE Brent is up ~0.5% trading at ~$85 just below its 50/100ma’s which is about a dollar higher. US natural gas is a touch lower while prices in Europe continue moving higher. After bouncing yesterday precious metals were pulling back overnight but have rallied back to unchanged after the data. Copper is slightly higher. Wheat is moving higher on the continued conflict in Russia and a heatwave. Crypto is extending yesterday’s gains with Bitcoin testing 65k and Ethereum moving above 1,900. The WSJ is reporting that the DTCC plans to run a pilot tokenization for Treasuries and stocks potentially in October.
Earnings:
After-Market: AEHR, EQBK
Pre-Market: ASML, BLK, BNY, CAG, CTAS, ELV, FHN, JNJ, MS, MTB, PGR, PNC
After-Market: HOMB, JBHT, UAL
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday most US major indices ended modestly higher after the better-than-expected inflation data and strong bank earnings. Tech was the primary driver of gains with chip and memory stocks recouping some of the previous day’s losses. IBM traded sharply lower after a negative pre-announcement which initially put pressure on the software sector however, much of the group recouped early losses with cybersecurity ending the day sharply higher (HACK +4.6%). Healthcare led to the downside after HCA preannounced, beating top and bottom lines but moving guidance lower on a negative mix shift from higher uninsured patient volumes and lower surgery volumes, which also weighed heavily on medtech and equipment stocks.
Futures were trading around unchanged levels throughout the overnight session but have moved higher after this morning’s PPI data came in better than expected. We are on day two of earnings season with some more details below ASML results are helping chip and equipment stocks in the pre-market. Financial results continue to look solid.
- Tech - ASML put up a very strong beat and raise quarter overnight highlighting the strong demand which has chip and equipment stocks trading higher in the pre-market. AEHR (>25%) beat and raise
- Financials - Morgan Stanley followed suit with its peers putting up strong numbers pretty much across all segments. BlackRock beat earnings estimates while AUM also exceeded expectations. Bank of NY and PNC are both modestly lower despite solid reports.
- Healthcare - both J&J and Elevance are under pressure in the pre-market. J&J raised guidance but there seems to be some focus on slightly disappointing medtech results
- Industrials - Pentair (->20%) negatively preannounced with Q2 sales expected to fall 17% vs. prior guidance of 1% driven by a destocking of pool inventories. The company’s CFO is also stepping down.
- Staples - Conagra (-5%) numbers look a little light and company cut its dividend
On the heels of yesterday’s better than expected CPI report PPI also was better than expected along with last month’s readings being revised lower. Headline PPI fell 0.3% (vs. +0.1% cons) while core was up 0.2% (vs. 0.4% cons) declines were driven by final demand for goods which were down 1.4% while services were up 0.2%. Fed Williams was also speaking this morning reiterating his belief we are past the peak of inflation. Treasury yields were a touch higher overnight but have moved lower following the data. The 2yr is down another 5bps today while the long end is down 2-3bps. The USD index is a touch lower.
- US 2yr -5bps to 4.16%, 5yr -4bps to 4.29%, 10yr -3bps to 4.57%, 30yr -2bps to 5.09%
- USD index: -$0.06 to $100.65
Yesterday US led tech bounce helped most markets in Asia move higher overnight. The Kospi was up 6.2% reversing a good portion of this week’s losses ahead of tomorrow’s central bank rate decision. Samsung denied reports that it was considering a US ADR. The Nikkei also ended in the green up 1.5%. There was a big data dump in China overnight. GDP disappointed but retail sales and industrial production were both better than expected. The Shanghai Composite ended modestly lower. Tech stocks pushed the Hang Seng up 1.5%. Most European indices are trading modestly lower but off the worst levels. ASML (+3.5%) earnings is helping tech, luxury is outperforming after strong Richemont results. Chemicals are underperforming despite BASF raising guidance.
Kinetic activity continues in Iran helping to keep a bid under oil prices. ICE Brent is up ~0.5% trading at ~$85 just below its 50/100ma’s which is about a dollar higher. US natural gas is a touch lower while prices in Europe continue moving higher. After bouncing yesterday precious metals were pulling back overnight but have rallied back to unchanged after the data. Copper is slightly higher. Wheat is moving higher on the continued conflict in Russia and a heatwave. Crypto is extending yesterday’s gains with Bitcoin testing 65k and Ethereum moving above 1,900. The WSJ is reporting that the DTCC plans to run a pilot tokenization for Treasuries and stocks potentially in October.
Earnings:
After-Market: AEHR, EQBK
Pre-Market: ASML, BLK, BNY, CAG, CTAS, ELV, FHN, JNJ, MS, MTB, PGR, PNC
After-Market: HOMB, JBHT, UAL
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage Apps: -2.7% w.w -2.2%; 30yr Rate - 6.65% prior 6.58%
- PPI: vs. 0%/6.5% cons., prior 1.1%/6.2%
- Core PPI: vs. 0.4%/5.2% cons. prior 0.4%/4.9%
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
- 12:00 NOPA Crush
- 1:00 Fed Cook
- 2:00 Fed Beige Book
- China GDP: 4.3% vs. 4.5% cons., prior 5%
- China Retail Sales: 1% vs. -0.1% cons., prior -0.6%
- China Industrial Production: 5.3% vs. 4.6% cons., prior 4.5%
- China FAI: -5.7% vs. -4.9% cons., prior -4.1%
- China Unemployment: 5% vs. 5.1% cons., prior 5.1%
- China Home Prices: -3.3% prior -3.5%
- EU Industrial Production: -0.2% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.3%
- 10:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision
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