STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 8/12/26 (a/o 1:15 pm)
DOW 53,802 (+11), S&P 500 7,745 (+17), Russell 2000 3,042 (+15), NYSE FANG+ 18,498 (-82), ICE Brent Crude $88.74/barrel (-$0.17), Gold $4,484/oz (+$43), Bitcoin ~63.5k (-122)
MAC Desk Commentary:
US equities continued to consolidate the recent rally yesterday, ahead of today’s CPI report. Major US indices were mixed with the S&P 500 falling modestly while the equal weight and small/midcap indices recouped some of the previous day’s losses as yields pulled back a couple of basis points. The Nvidia/Wall Street $500B “compute financing platform” was the big story of the day in an otherwise uneventful day on the tape. The asset management partners (BLK, BX, BAM, APO, KKR, GS) were some of the best performing stocks in the S&P. Or maybe it was because of the news that the New York Yankees and Apollo entered into a $2.6B financing agreement. And speaking of iconic sports franchises, Jared Kushner and Bog Iger are buying a controlling interest in the now-Lebron James-less Los Angeles Lakers at a $12B valuation. I didn’t think flipping professional sports franchises would be a particularly viable business model but current Lakers owner Mark Walter just bought his stake in October at a $10B valuation. Whatever, the Knicks are still the champs, and will tip-off their championship defense next season against who?  The now Lebron James-ful Philadelphia 76ers.  

S&P futures drifted higher overnight ahead of this morning’s CPI print. That print turned out to be rather non-eventful, fitting for the overall pace this week, coming in on the screws with expectations. The S&P 500 opened up 0.5%, currently the HOD, but has traded in another tight range, up about 0.2% currently. Small caps are outperforming modestly and the equal-weight is about inline.
Sectors are basically either flat or up/down 1%. Tech and Real Estate are leading. Within tech, it’s the hardware/semi names with the strength as the ICE Semis index is up ~3%. Neocloud companies CoreWeave and Nebius are both up ~20% after earnings, and the rest of that group is higher as well. Optical network stocks are up after Lumentum earnings (+15%) and Super Micro’s +10% gains is helping memory/storage stocks. The counter-trade today is to fade software (IGV -1%) though Oracle is bucking that move, up 3% after news of another round of upcoming layoffs. Constellation Software is down 7% after earnings, contributing to the pressure on the group. For Real Estate, the data centers are leading (EQIX, DLR +3%).

Materials, Comm Services and Discretionary are lagging behind. Most Material stocks are lower. Meta is down 3%, taking Comm Services lower, though Telecom is down too and Media names are mixed. MSGS and BATRA (Atlanta Braves Holdings) are gaining on the Lakers news. In Discretionary, autos and homebuilders are lower, as are retail stocks. 
Getting to the data- Headline and Core CPI were both on the screws up 0.1% / 0.2% m/m respectively. Energy prices continued to decline though this will likely reverse in August. Within core the components that fell in June saw some modest bounce back (apparel/used cars/transportation services). Shelter was muted again at 0.1%. Treasury yields are around where they were trading before the CPI print, down 1-3bp. The odds of a hold in September moved up from 52% yesterday to 62% today and 1 cut is priced in through December, down from 1.2 cuts. The 10-year auction today was a little weak, tailing by 0.1bp, but indirects took down 77% of the auction. Rates moved a little lower after the results.  

  • US 2yr -3bps to 4.19%, 5yr -3bps to 4.36%, 10yr -2bps to 4.67%, 30yr -1bps to 5.23%
  • USD index: +$0.06 to $99.78
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. South Korea was up 3.7% with the two mega-cap memory stocks up >5% each amidst reports that Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund Temasek was looking to invest in both companies. Samsung also confirmed it had adopted Anthropic’s Claude and has seen improvements in semiconductor design and development. Japan returned from holiday and closed higher with strength in tech and financials while consumer stocks closed lower. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng closed down nearly 1% with tech, retail, energy and financials all under pressure. Internet stocks Tencent fell 2% following earnings and JD.com fell 3% ahead of its earnings. In a call back to Meta’s earnings, Tencent was asked about renting out compute capacity and said it could achieve a “decent return in an immediate timeframe”, but is using capacity to build its own AI models and applications.

European markets were lower, fading in the second half of their sessions after the US CPI hit the tape as regional sovereign yields rose. Consumer products/luxury were lower (LVMH -3%) , tech equipment was higher but software was lower (SAP -3%).  
Brent is relatively unchanged, trading between $88-$90 after running up about $10 over the past four days. This despite today’s EIA inventory data which showed a huge 17M barrel build, against an expected 2M draw, lining up with last night’s API data. OPEC cut world oil demand growth to 0.6mbpd for 2026, down from 0.8m last month, while 2027 is expected to grow by 2.2mbpd, up from 1.9m. US and European natural gas is higher. Europe is dealing with a heatwave, record low river levels, a solar eclipse and a jellyfish swarm that knocked out nuclear power.

Metals are broadly higher with gold in a tight range and probing its 200d ma after running over the past week. Ag was trading higher heading into this afternoon’s WASDE report and is holding on to those gains, with wheat and corn standouts. Ukraine and Russia trading strikes in the Black Sea is not helping. Bitcoin has pulled back from modest gains earlier as it tests support at its 50d ma and Ether remains in a tight trading range.
We'll get another look at inflation tomorrow with the PPI. Hammack The Dissenter will provide Fed Speak as well, which could be interesting if she comments on the CPI print- (its scheduled before the PPI release). Jobless claims and a 30-year bond auction will also be on the calendar. Cisco will report earnings tonight.  

Earnings:
After-Market: AOSL, BTGO, CAE, CBRS, COHR, CSCO, DOX, ENS, EQPT, GO, HLIT, INFQ, JACK, NNE, PAR, REZI, SECZ, SPCE, STAA
Pre-Market (Thrs): AIT, AUPH, BIRK, BN, DDS, FRMI, JD, LAC, LUNR, PS, SSYS, TPR, WWW, XE, YETI
After-Market: AMAT, GEMI, GSAT, GLOB, MFP, ROST, YSS

Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage Apps: 2.5% w/w vs prior -3.6%
  • Refis: 5.0% vs prior -1.9%
  • 30yr Rate 6.77% prior 6.81%
  • CPI: m.m / y.y vs. 0.1% / 3.4% cons., prior -0.4% / 3.5%
  • Core CPI: vs. 0.2% / 2.5% cons., prior 0% / 2.6%
  • EIA Oil Inventories: 17.422M vs -1.4M cons, prior 2.479M
  • API crude inventories (yesterday AMC): 9.072M vs -0.5M cons, prior 2.69M
  • 2:00 Monthly Budget 
Global:

  • India Inflation: 4.45% vs. 4.5% cons., prior 4.38%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/12/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Happy CPI Day,
 
Yesterday, US markets continued to consolidate the recent rally ahead of today’s inflation report. Major US indices were mixed with the S&P 500 falling modestly while the equal weight and small/midcap indices recouped some of the previous day’s losses as yields pulled back. The Nvidia/Wall Street $500B “compute financing platform” was the big story of the day. The asset management partners were some of the best performing stocks in the market and the news broadly helped the AI infrastructure complex. However, the hyperscalers (ex-Meta) were all under pressure as this signaled more spending and competition going forward. There continued to be a steady flow of conflicting Iran headlines keeping a bid under oil markets.
 
US futures were on the move higher ahead of this morning’s data after a strong round of tech earnings since yesterday’s close. Neocloud companies CoreWeave and Nebius are both up >15% with strong sales and growing backlogs but the pushback is the ever-growing amount of Capex spending. Hardware companies Lumentum and Super Micro are both up >5% after beat and raise quarters.  Headline and Core-CPI were both on the screws up 0.1%/0.2% m/m respectively. Energy prices continued to decline though this will likely reverse in August. Within core the components that fell in June did bounce back modestly (apparel/used cars/transportation services). Shelter was muted again at 0.1%. After a little volatility rates are around where they were before the data down 3-4bps across the curve with the odds of a hold in September ticking up slightly to ~58% from 52% yesterday. Equity futures have extended the gains modestly with S&P 500 and R2k futures both up ~0.5%.
 
  • US 2yr -4bps to 4.18%, 5yr -4bps to 4.35%, 10yr -3bps to 4.66%, 30yr -2bps to 5.23%
  • USD index: -$0.16 to $99.56
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. South Korea was up 3.7% with the two mega-memory stocks both up >5% amidst reports that Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund was looking to invest in the companies. Japan returned from holiday and closed modestly higher with strength in tech and financials while consumer related stocks closed lower. The Yen was weakening overnight before a burst of buying this morning. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng closed down nearly 1% with tech, retail, energy and financials all under pressure. The weakness comes ahead of Tencent and JD.com earnings. European markets are mostly higher.
 

 
Ahead of this morning’s inventory data oil prices are hovering around unchanged. Natural gas in both the US and Europe is moving higher adding to the week’s gains. Metals were rallying ahead of the data and have extended to the upside as the USD has weakened. Gold is up nearly 1% retesting yesterday’s high just under its 200d ma. Other precious metals are up >2%. Ag is moving higher ahead of the WASDE report at noon. Wheat is up >3% with supplies expected to decline given weather conditions and escalating tensions in the Black Sea. Crypto is bouncing modestly after a couple of days of weakness but already coming off the highs.

 
Earnings:
After-Market: CAVA, CRWV, FLY, HRB, LITE, QNT, SMCI
Pre-Market: AMCR, EAT, EYE, KTB, NBIS, PFGC, SLAB, TORO, WRD
After-Market: AOSL, BTGO, CAE, CBRS, COHR, CSCO, DOX, ENS, EQPT, GO, HLIT, INFQ, JACK, NNE, PAR, REZI, SECZ, SPCE, STAA
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage Apps: 3.6% w/w prior -2.9%; 30yr Rate 6.77% prior 6.81%
  • CPI: 0.1%/3.4% m.m/y.y vs. 0.1%/3.4% cons., prior -0.4%/3.5%
  • Core CPI: 0.2%/2.5% vs. 0.2%/2.5% cons., prior 0%/2.6%
  • 10:30 Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 WASDE Report
  • 1:00 10yr Auction
  • 2:00 Monthly Budget
Global:
  • India Inflation: 4.45% vs. 4.5% cons., prior 4.38%
Ahead of Friday’s retail sales Bank of America Institute noted that consumer spending growth moderated to 5% y/y from 6.3% in June but suggested that this was related to one-time items like the pull forward of Prime Day and unwinding World Cup spending. 
Oil prices are up ~1% but off the overnight high. Natural gas prices are pulling back modestly giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Metals are mixed. Gold nearly tagged its 200d overnight trading just under 4,500 before giving up about half its gains. Ag is lower. Crypto has given up overnight gains trading slightly lower. The SEC announced that it would be holding an open meeting on Friday to “consider whether to issue a release proposing new rules to create a tailored offering regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets.” This is a procedural step in the rulemaking process which typically takes 12 - 18 months. 
Withing the S&P 500 only 4 of 11 sectors are trading higher though breadth is slightly better than 1:1 adv:dec. Energy is leading to the upside. Industrials are being helped by AI infrastructure, airlines and building products companies. Utilities are broadly trading higher with the pullback in yields though IPPs are some of the best performing. Asset managers are the best performing stocks with financials. Hyperscaler weakness is dragging down comm services, consumer discretionary and info tech. Within consumer discretionary housing, autos and travel related stocks are trading higher. Apparel and footwear after disappointing On Holding results. Within tech Nvidia has turned slightly lower while the other direct chip competitors (AMD/AVGO) are under a bit of pressure as this strengthens their ecosystem. Software is underperforming giving back some of the recent gains. 
Looking ahead to tomorrow CPI is the main event. On the earnings front there are a couple of tech reports that will get some attention. As well as a couple of restaurants including CAVA which is on the menu for the MAC Desk lunch today. 

Earnings:
After-Market: CAVA, CRWV, FLY, HRB, LITE, QNT, SMCI
Pre-Market: AMCR, EAT, EYE, KTB, NBIS, PFGC, SLAB, TORO, WRD
After-Market: AOSL, BTGO, CAE, CBRS, COHR, CSCO, DOX, ENS, EQPT, GO, HLIT, INFQ, JACK, NNE, PAR, REZI, SECZ, SPCE, STAA

Economic Data:
US:
  • NFIB business sentiment: 99.8 vs 97.5 cons, prior 97.4
  • ADP weekly payrolls: 8.25K vs prior 15.0K
  • Existing Home Sales: 4.06 vs. 4.07ml cons., prior revised to 4.13ml from 4.09ml
Global:

  • RBA rate decision: Unchanged as expected (4.35%)

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