by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist

Published on 6/09/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)

Yesterday US markets bounced back recouping some of Friday’s tech led selloff. That selloff broke a nine-week winning streak for the S&P 500 and last night the Knicks winning streak also came to an end.  The late night made for a sounder commute nap, but traders got crankier throughout the morning. Coming out of the weekend, semis led to the upside but overall the gains were modest with the S&P 500 recouping only 0.3% after the sharp selloff. It was and an inside day, the range completely within Friday’s range, and equities faded throughout the session signaling a lack of conviction. Oil gained after Israel and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend but came off its highest levels as the parties said those activities concluded (contingent on the other side stopping as well). Tech continued to dominate the news flow with Apple selling off after unveiling its updated AI platform at WWDC.

Global markets were mostly higher overnight with tech heavy indices in Asia recouping most of Monday’s selloff. Oil prices and yields were both modestly lower as there was some optimism around an Iran-US agreement helping push futures higher. Following another round headlines and deal announcements, tech was once again leading to the upside after the open after. However, that was like Stephon Castle head fake and the sector came under significant pressure, pushing the S&P 500 belowFriday’s lows. Tech and other thematic/speculative favorites are leading to the downside, raising some question as to how much of this is traders making room for Friday’s SpaceX IPO, keep in mind CPI is out tomorrow morning. Just before 1:00 President Trump posted that the pilots who were in the helicopter that was shot down last night were safe but, “Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack", pushing equities to fresh session lows. However, shortly thereafter the NYT reported that the administration is in discussions with Iran about a 15yr enrichment suspension which has helped markets bounce. As we head to print the S&P 500 is about 100pts off the lows down just under 1%. The equal weight version of the index and small/midcap indices ex the R2k are modestly higher.  

 This morning the NFIB Business Optimism fell from last month and missed expectations. Job openings and hiring plans dropped to lowest level in six years. The ADP weekly job report showed 29k private jobs/week were added over the past 4 weeks, roughly inline with the prior reading of 30.5k, which was revised down from 35.75k. April’s trade balance was also roughly inline with the prior month. After the open existing home sales came in slightly better than expectations.  Treasury yields were down a couple of basis points along with oil but have moved off the lows following the Trump update. The US Dollar Index was moving modestly lower overnight but is back around $100 again. 

Major European indices were higher overnight but came under pressure along with US markets, ending near session lows and that was before the Trump post.  German Industrial Production improved from last month and exports saw stronger growth as well.  As noted tech heavy indices rebounded sharply overnight, but as it stands now, tonight could be ugly. Chinese markets were mostly higher though the Hang Seng fell slightly. The Chinese government is considering a $300B, 5-yr program to build data centers across the country according to reports. The country’s trade balance rose more than expected in May. Export and import growth were both above consensus and up from April. Global stockpiling likely contributed a temporary push to the numbers. However oil imports fell to their lowest levels since 2017 as the country draws down inventories in the midst of the Iran conflict. The Dept of Defense updated its list of “Chinese military companies”- entities it views as providing, commercial services, manufacturing, producing, or exporting for China’s military. Several big names including Baidu, WuXi, BYD, and Alibaba were added, and the WSJ said those companies disagreed with their inclusion and will look to remove themselves from it. Companies on the list are barred from doing business with the U.S. military. Taiwan is reported to be exploring restriction on AI chip exports to China. Indonesia’s central bank raised rates unexpectedly to support the currency. 

ICE Brent is still down >2.5% despite bouncing on the most recent news holding just above the mid-May lows. Precious metals have been under pressure since the US open as USD caught a bid. Both gold and silver are now trading below their respective 200d mas. Copper has reversed early gains. Bitcoin and ETH are back to seeing selling pressure after yesterday’s short reprieve. Ag is modestly higher. The Saylor crypto bounce was short lived with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down >3% but still above last week’s lows.  

Despite losses at the index level the adv:dec in the S&P 500 is better than 2:1. Like last Friday defensive and yield oriented sectors are outperforming. REITs is the best performing sector with broad-based gains with healthcare and retail exposed companies leading. Office REITs are also rallying (SLG/VNO/BXP) after a WSJ story Manhattan office leasing was on pace for its best year since 2000, with AI firms driving the demand. Utilities are up ~1% with regulated utilities outperforming while IPPs are under some pressure. Consumer staples are up ~1% with food stocks outperforming after J.M. Smuckers (+10%) results. Healthcare is also up a similar amount as the sector continues to play some catchup. There was another deal announcement with GSK announcing it would buy Nuvalent for ~$10B. Financials are modestly higher.  The updates at Morgan Stanley Financials conference have been cautiously optimistic thus far. Consumer discretionary is lower but Tesla accounts for most of the weakness. Housing related and apparel stocks are some of the best performing.

Tech is bearing the brunt of the selling. Overnight OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO but added “it may be a while” and Anthropic released its Mythos model to the public. The other big news was this morning’s announcement by Broadcom along with Apollo Global and Blackstone to finance its $35B “AI XPV Platform” and the buildout of 20gw of compute through 2028.

After-Market: BARK, CASY, CBRL. CNM, DOMO, LAKE, SKILL

Pre-Market: CHWY, JILL

After-Market: NAVN, ORCL, OXM, SFIX   

US:

Global: