STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 5/5/2026 (a/o 9:00am)
Happy Cinco De Mayo,
Yesterday, the durability of the ceasefire was in drawn into question following a strike against the UAE. One thing that was never in question was a Game 1 victory for the New York Knicks who won by 39pts. US equity markets moved modestly lower as oil prices and Treasury yields tested recent highs.
The rally in futures this morning is mostly about what didn’t happen as there was no escalation or response by the US. Futures pushed to session highs this morning as General Caine said the Iran attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations something echoed by Secretary of War Hegseth. S&P futures are up 0.5% recouping pretty much all of yesterday’s losses while the R2K is up >0.75%. Oil prices are down >2% and which is also helping yields pull back a couple of bps.
The only economic data ahead of the open was trade balance which was about inline with expectations. However, there is some impactful data out after the open with ISM services and the JOLTS job opening at 10:00. Treasury yields are down between 1-3bps with the 30yr still holding just above 5%. The USD index is modestly higher. The Yen intervention has been the big story in currencies over the last week it is giving back some of the recent gains down ~0.4% vs. the USD at ~157.75¥/$.
Government Yields
Japan, China and South Korea were all closed for holiday making for a quiet overnight session. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bps to 4.35% but signaled it could hit the pause button for a couple of months. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell for the second consecutive day but did end off session lows. Most European indices are moving higher recouping yesterday’s losses. Yields at the front end of the curve in the region are also pulling back modestly. However, the UK is the outlier after re-opening from holiday. The FTSE 100 is down >1% with financials selling off after HSBC results. Consumer stocks are also under pressure. Local yields are moving sharply higher up >10bps across the curve amidst political uncertainty as concern grows that the Labour Party could see big losses in the upcoming election.
The commodity complex is very much the opposite of yesterday’s session with energy moving lower and the metals complex recouping some of yesterday’s losses. Copper continues its recent outperformance up >2%. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto rallied yesterday after Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act. Last night bank organizations released a statement saying this “falls short” of protecting bank deposits but the senators said, “We respectfully agree to disagree.” The Senate Banking Committee is targeting mid-May to get the bill marked up with a full Senate vote possible in June/July. On Polymarket the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 is ~63% up from 45% last week. There have also been a couple of big headlines in the space this morning. Bullish (+2%) announced it would buy global transfer agent, Equiniti for ~$4.2B. Coinbase (+3%) announced it will look to cut up to 14% of its workforce with CEO Brian Armstrong saying, "We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native." Bitcoin is up >1.5% trading ~81.6k hitting the highest level since late January.
It is another very busy day of earnings which are generally looking pretty solid. Within industrials ROK and CMI are a couple of positive standouts. Software outperformed yesterday, overnight Palantir had solid results, but the stock is modestly lower. Service Now (+1.5%) projected 2030 revenue of >$30B ahead of previous estimates. FIS (+3%) is trading higher as the company is working with Anthropic to develop AI tools for banks. Intel (+4%) continues to surge on reports that it is in discussions with Apple to produce main processors for its devices.
Earnings:
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Pre-Market (Tues): AEP, ADM, BALL, CMI, DOCN, DRS, DUK, DD, ETN, ENR, FISV, GFS, GPK, HII, HOG, HSIC, IT, IQV, KBR, LDOS, MPC, PFE, PYPL, RACE, ROK, RVTY, SHOP, STNG, TDG, ULS, VAC, WAT, WEC, WLK
After Market (Tues): AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday, the durability of the ceasefire was in drawn into question following a strike against the UAE. One thing that was never in question was a Game 1 victory for the New York Knicks who won by 39pts. US equity markets moved modestly lower as oil prices and Treasury yields tested recent highs.
The rally in futures this morning is mostly about what didn’t happen as there was no escalation or response by the US. Futures pushed to session highs this morning as General Caine said the Iran attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations something echoed by Secretary of War Hegseth. S&P futures are up 0.5% recouping pretty much all of yesterday’s losses while the R2K is up >0.75%. Oil prices are down >2% and which is also helping yields pull back a couple of bps.
The only economic data ahead of the open was trade balance which was about inline with expectations. However, there is some impactful data out after the open with ISM services and the JOLTS job opening at 10:00. Treasury yields are down between 1-3bps with the 30yr still holding just above 5%. The USD index is modestly higher. The Yen intervention has been the big story in currencies over the last week it is giving back some of the recent gains down ~0.4% vs. the USD at ~157.75¥/$.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -3bps to 3.93%, 5yr -3bps to 4.07%, 10yr -2bps to 4.42%, 30yr -1bps to 5.01%
- USD index: +$0.01 to $98.28
Japan, China and South Korea were all closed for holiday making for a quiet overnight session. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bps to 4.35% but signaled it could hit the pause button for a couple of months. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell for the second consecutive day but did end off session lows. Most European indices are moving higher recouping yesterday’s losses. Yields at the front end of the curve in the region are also pulling back modestly. However, the UK is the outlier after re-opening from holiday. The FTSE 100 is down >1% with financials selling off after HSBC results. Consumer stocks are also under pressure. Local yields are moving sharply higher up >10bps across the curve amidst political uncertainty as concern grows that the Labour Party could see big losses in the upcoming election.
The commodity complex is very much the opposite of yesterday’s session with energy moving lower and the metals complex recouping some of yesterday’s losses. Copper continues its recent outperformance up >2%. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto rallied yesterday after Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released an updated compromise on stablecoin yield in the Clarity Act. Last night bank organizations released a statement saying this “falls short” of protecting bank deposits but the senators said, “We respectfully agree to disagree.” The Senate Banking Committee is targeting mid-May to get the bill marked up with a full Senate vote possible in June/July. On Polymarket the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 is ~63% up from 45% last week. There have also been a couple of big headlines in the space this morning. Bullish (+2%) announced it would buy global transfer agent, Equiniti for ~$4.2B. Coinbase (+3%) announced it will look to cut up to 14% of its workforce with CEO Brian Armstrong saying, "We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native." Bitcoin is up >1.5% trading ~81.6k hitting the highest level since late January.
It is another very busy day of earnings which are generally looking pretty solid. Within industrials ROK and CMI are a couple of positive standouts. Software outperformed yesterday, overnight Palantir had solid results, but the stock is modestly lower. Service Now (+1.5%) projected 2030 revenue of >$30B ahead of previous estimates. FIS (+3%) is trading higher as the company is working with Anthropic to develop AI tools for banks. Intel (+4%) continues to surge on reports that it is in discussions with Apple to produce main processors for its devices.
Earnings:
After-Market: ALSN, AMRC, BWXT, FANG, GRAB, INSP, JELD, NJR, NUVB, ON, PLTR, PINS, PSKY, RIG, VNO, WMB
Pre-Market (Tues): AEP, ADM, BALL, CMI, DOCN, DRS, DUK, DD, ETN, ENR, FISV, GFS, GPK, HII, HOG, HSIC, IT, IQV, KBR, LDOS, MPC, PFE, PYPL, RACE, ROK, RVTY, SHOP, STNG, TDG, ULS, VAC, WAT, WEC, WLK
After Market (Tues): AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Economic Data:
US:
- Trade Balance: : -$60.3B vs. -$60.5B cons. prior -$57.3B
- 9:45 S&P Services PMI (final)
- 10:00 ISM Services
- 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings
- 10:00 New Home Sales
- 12:30 Fed Barr
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
- Reserve Bank of Australia hikes by 25bps to 4.35%
- Spain Unemployment: -62.7k vs. -18.6k cons., prior -22.9k
By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates. Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.
Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.
© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates. For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.