STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 6/22/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,645 (+80), S&P 500 7,471 (-30), Russell 2000 3,009 (+29), NYSE FANG+ 17,194 (-430), ICE Brent Crude $77.88/barrel (-$1.97), Gold $4,209/oz (-$37), Bitcoin ~64.3k (+1447)
- Summer Summer Summer-time....
- Megacap weakness masking modest gains overall
- Yields higher, oil lower
- Progress on nuclear talks?
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 540: Infleqtion CEO Matt Kinsella on Quantum Sensing, Computing, and Race to Scale
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
US equities are getting back to business following a long weekend capped off with Father’s Day and the official start of Summer. Hope all the Dad’s enjoyed their day. When we closed the short week on Thursday major US indices bounced back from the Fed-induced selloff Wednesday afternoon. The S&P 500 rallied 1.2% leaving the index higher for the week. Tech, particularly semiconductors (+~7%) led to the upside. Breadth was not particularly strong with only 5 of 11 sectors in the in the green while energy, financials and healthcare led to the downside. Before Friday’s Juneteen holiday, Thursday saw a Triple Witch expiration and the S&P quarterly rebalance with nearly 3 billion shares trading in the NYSE closing auction.
Iran headlines continued to dominate the press over the weekend. While initially tilted negatively, optimism eventually took hold after a meeting in Switzerland where both Iran and the US focused on “encouraging progress”. Vice President JD Vance later said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country. The S&P 500 opened around flat, briefly moved above 7500 before heading to session lows, down around 0.5%. The index recovered a bit but started to fall back towards the lows as we hit print. The equal-weight is outperforming, up slightly, as are small caps. Much of the market-cap weighted index underperformance is due to a group of mega caps under pressure. Alphabet, Oracle and Amazon are down ~5%. Alphabet saw another big name leave its AI ranks for a competitor and Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella talked up the benefits of lower-cost AI models versus the frontier models. The general action has hyperscalers under pressure adn SpaceX is down 12%.
Alphabet’s weakness puts Comm Services at the bottom of the sectors today. Amazon is pulling down Consumer Discretionary in a similar fashion, though Travel and Leisure names are broadly lower as well despite oil’s continued decline. Tech is seeing weakness in software while memory/semi names are higher. Real Estate is leading today despite yields rising. Data center developer Digital Realty is up ~5% after announcing several infrastructure deals and acquisitions. Healthcare is also a leader today. The market is applauding AbbVie’s ~$11B acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics, sending shares up over 6% as the stellar biotech M&A environment continues.
Treasury yields are up ~5bp across the curve. The US Dollar Index is up as well and back above 100. It looks like there was intervention in the yen around 10am today. The currency was approaching 162/$ before quickly strengthening. However about half of that has already been erased.
- US 2yr +4bps to 4.23%, 5yr +5bps to 4.29%, 10yr +5bps to 4.51%, 30yr +5bps to 4.95%
- USD index: +$0.17 to $100.79
Crude is down around 3%. US natural gas is testing resistance at its 100d ma ~$3.30 while European gas is flat. Metals are weaker as treasury yields rise. Ag is lower. Bitcoin and Ethereum are up ~2% but a little off their highs. Bitcoin made a run back to $65K before pulling back. Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has moved well below its $100 “peg”, generating a lot of buzz about the stability of Strategy’s bitcoin flywheel. The company announced it sold 2.7ml shares last week and bought another 520 Bitcoin (~$35ml) but also added $300ml to its balance sheet easing some concern about funding future dividends. Last-minute congressional meetings are expected this week in an attempt to salvage the CLARITY Act before the August recess.
European indices climbed off of early weakness and finished mostly higher. France’s CAC 40 underperformed as luxury stocks were under pressure. UK PM Starmer resigned after last week’s election results local yields, setting up the UK for their 7th PM in the last 10 years. Despite the political mess the FTSE 100 ended up 0.7% with Financials and Miners leading to the upside, and Financials led across Europe overall.
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. The China Shanghai Composite was up nearly 2% though the Hang Seng fell. Divergence in the Tech space continues, with more AI-levered names seeing gains while more traditional and consumer-facing tech plays coming under pressure. The PBOC left 1/5yr LPR rates unchanged as expected. China added 10 companies to its export control list, including rare-earth companies MP/USAR (both trading higher in the pre-market), in response to similar action by the US recently. The Nikkei was up 1.5% with Tech and Financials leading to the upside. Local yields moved higher while the Yen weakened, trading just below 162 at its highs. Japan plans ~$65B in public and private investment for physical AI by 2040. That helped push names like Fanuc up over 6% overnight. South Korea added to recent gains with SK Hynix rallying >5% overtaking Samsung as the largest company. Regulators are weighing stabilization steps to limit potential fallout from volatility created by leveraged ETF’s of the two giant memory companies.
Tomorrow’s data will include global Flash PMIs and several major earnings reports including Carnival and FedEx.
Earnings:
Pre-Market (Tues): CCL, KFY, SUNB
After-Market (Tues): CBRS, FDX, ICR, KBH, WOR
Economic Data:
US:
- None
Global:
- China 1/5yr Loan Prime rates left unchanged at 3% / 3.5%
- China FDI (YTD) y.y: -8.6% vs prior -10.3%
- Canda CPI: 1% / 3.2% m.m / y.y vs. 0.8% / 3% cons, prior 0.4% / 2.8%
- Europe Consumer Confidence: -17.7 vs -17.5 cons, prior -19.0
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Good morning,
Welcome back and hopefully you enjoyed the long holiday weekend. On Thursday major US indices bounced back from the Fed induced selloff in the prior session. The S&P 500 rallied 1.2% leaving the index higher for the week with tech, particularly semiconductors (+~7%) leading to the upside. Breadth was not particularly strong with only 5 of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ending in the green while energy, financials and healthcare led to the downside. There was a big liquidity event on Thursday as it was triple witch expiration, and the S&P quarterly index rebalance with nearly 3 billion shares trading in the NYSE closing auction.
Iran headlines continued to dominate the press over the weekend. Those headlines initially tilted negatively but ultimately after a meeting in Switzerland the two sides have signaled progress. S&P futures have recouped most of the losses and are trading around unchanged while Dow and R2k futures are modestly higher. Oil prices have pulled back from the weekend highs and are trading slightly lower than they were when markets closed Thursday, ICE Brent is trading ~$78.50.
AI remains the other focal point. There has been some focus on Satya Nadella’s interview (MSFT CEO) who criticized the concentration power within a few frontier models and highlighted the company’s shift to offer low-cost AI models which reportedly could include China’s DeepSeek. Separately this morning the company announced a 20yr power deal with Chevron (+1%) to power its data center in Texas. In an interview, President Trump said he no longer views Anthropic as a national security threat. Ahead of Micron earnings later this week memory stocks are rallying again this morning. Alphabet (-2%) is moving lower after another top AI executive left for OpenAI.
There were a couple of deals announced this morning with ABBV buying APGE for ~$11B in an all-cash deal. CRH is buying infrastructure products/services company ACA for $8.5B.
There is no impactful US economic data today. Fed Waller will be speaking before the open. Treasury yields are up 3-4bps across the curve while the USD is a touch higher.
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. The China Shanghai Composite was up nearly 2% though the Hang Seng fell. The PBOC left 1/5yr LPR rates unchanged as expected. China added 10 companies to its export control list, including rare-earth companies MP/USAR (both trading higher in the pre-market), in response to similar action by the US recently. The Nikkei was up 1.5% with tech and financials leading to the upside. Local yields continue to move higher while the Yen weakens trading ~161.75¥/$ moving away from the closely watched 160 level. South Korea added to recent gains with SK Hynix rallying >5% overtaking Samsung as the largest company. Regulators are weighing stabilization steps to limit potential fallout from volatility created by leveraged ETF’s of the two giant memory companies. European indices have recouped earlier losses now trading modestly higher. France’s CAC 40 is underperforming as luxury stocks are under pressure. UK PM Starmer resigned after last week’s election results local yields are down 3-5bps. The FTSE 100 is up 0.6% with financials and miners leading to the upside.
Oil prices are near session lows down ~2.5%. Natural gas is modestly higher in both the US/Europe. Metals have bounced recouping most of the weekend losses. Ag is mixed. Crypto was moving modestly higher overnight and has accelerated this morning with Bitcoin and Ethereum up ~3% at 65k and 1,765, respectively. Markets have been fixated on STRC moving away from the 100 peg recently. This morning Strategy announced it sold 2.7ml shares last week buying another 520 Bitcoin (~$35ml) but also added $300ml to its balance sheet easing some concern about funding future dividends.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: FRVO
Economic Data:
US:
Welcome back and hopefully you enjoyed the long holiday weekend. On Thursday major US indices bounced back from the Fed induced selloff in the prior session. The S&P 500 rallied 1.2% leaving the index higher for the week with tech, particularly semiconductors (+~7%) leading to the upside. Breadth was not particularly strong with only 5 of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ending in the green while energy, financials and healthcare led to the downside. There was a big liquidity event on Thursday as it was triple witch expiration, and the S&P quarterly index rebalance with nearly 3 billion shares trading in the NYSE closing auction.
Iran headlines continued to dominate the press over the weekend. Those headlines initially tilted negatively but ultimately after a meeting in Switzerland the two sides have signaled progress. S&P futures have recouped most of the losses and are trading around unchanged while Dow and R2k futures are modestly higher. Oil prices have pulled back from the weekend highs and are trading slightly lower than they were when markets closed Thursday, ICE Brent is trading ~$78.50.
AI remains the other focal point. There has been some focus on Satya Nadella’s interview (MSFT CEO) who criticized the concentration power within a few frontier models and highlighted the company’s shift to offer low-cost AI models which reportedly could include China’s DeepSeek. Separately this morning the company announced a 20yr power deal with Chevron (+1%) to power its data center in Texas. In an interview, President Trump said he no longer views Anthropic as a national security threat. Ahead of Micron earnings later this week memory stocks are rallying again this morning. Alphabet (-2%) is moving lower after another top AI executive left for OpenAI.
There were a couple of deals announced this morning with ABBV buying APGE for ~$11B in an all-cash deal. CRH is buying infrastructure products/services company ACA for $8.5B.
There is no impactful US economic data today. Fed Waller will be speaking before the open. Treasury yields are up 3-4bps across the curve while the USD is a touch higher.
- US 2yr +4bps to 4.22%, 5yr +4bps to 4.28%, 10yr +4bps to 4.50%, 30yr +4bps to 4.94%
- USD index: +$0.05 to $100.67
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. The China Shanghai Composite was up nearly 2% though the Hang Seng fell. The PBOC left 1/5yr LPR rates unchanged as expected. China added 10 companies to its export control list, including rare-earth companies MP/USAR (both trading higher in the pre-market), in response to similar action by the US recently. The Nikkei was up 1.5% with tech and financials leading to the upside. Local yields continue to move higher while the Yen weakens trading ~161.75¥/$ moving away from the closely watched 160 level. South Korea added to recent gains with SK Hynix rallying >5% overtaking Samsung as the largest company. Regulators are weighing stabilization steps to limit potential fallout from volatility created by leveraged ETF’s of the two giant memory companies. European indices have recouped earlier losses now trading modestly higher. France’s CAC 40 is underperforming as luxury stocks are under pressure. UK PM Starmer resigned after last week’s election results local yields are down 3-5bps. The FTSE 100 is up 0.6% with financials and miners leading to the upside.
Oil prices are near session lows down ~2.5%. Natural gas is modestly higher in both the US/Europe. Metals have bounced recouping most of the weekend losses. Ag is mixed. Crypto was moving modestly higher overnight and has accelerated this morning with Bitcoin and Ethereum up ~3% at 65k and 1,765, respectively. Markets have been fixated on STRC moving away from the 100 peg recently. This morning Strategy announced it sold 2.7ml shares last week buying another 520 Bitcoin (~$35ml) but also added $300ml to its balance sheet easing some concern about funding future dividends.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: FRVO
Economic Data:
US:
- 9:00 Fed Waller
- China 1/5yr Loan Prime rates left unchanged at 3%/3.5%
- Canda CPI: 1%/3.2% m.m/y.y vs. 0.8%/3% cons,. prior 0.4%/2.8%
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