STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 9/8/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 52,872 (-542), S&P 500 7,691 (-28), Russell 2000 2,973 (-3), NYSE FANG+ 18,626 (-118), ICE Brent Crude $96.90/barrel (+$0.62), Gold $4,440/oz (-$37), Bitcoin ~78.6k (-1050)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Welcome back and hopefully you enjoyed the long holiday weekend. The summer is officially over, and the kids are back at school, even the straggler towns in New Jersey (including mine which made for an anxiety ridden evening). Add that to September’s reputation as the worst month for equities and it’s no wonder that markets are in a bit of a foul mood to start the week. But if you’re looking for a bit of optimism you’ve come to the right place because the MAC Desk’s favorite season is not summer, it’s football.  College football is officially underway (not without some controversy), the NFL kicks off tomorrow and on a slightly different note Aaron Judge is slated to return to the starting lineup after a stint on the IR, so all things considered the MAC Desk is in a jolly mood.

Following a strong jobs report on Friday US equities ended the week on a mixed note as rate hike expectations increased. That being said the rates move was relatively muted as the long-end was basically unchanged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average were both down ~0.5%, though small and midcap indices ended slightly in the green. Crude continued to rise up nearly 10% for the week, while gold and bitcoin fell. While most major US indices ended the week on either side of unchanged AI hardware saw solid gains with several new models releases but that was offset by software weakness.

The Iranian situation heated up over the weekend. There has been a lot of press focusing on the growing pressure that the Iranian government is under from the US blockade and military actions. That pressure has not led to negotiations but rather an escalation in kinetic activity. On Saturday after Iran launched strikes on U.S. warships, U.S. forces hit 3 Iranian oil tankers. Over the last twenty-four hours Saudi Arabian oil facilities were also hit by Houthi missile and drone attacks. A deal between Iran and Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent according to reports. Iran is also developing plans to create a maritime exclusion zone where it intends to stop ships transiting the Strait without its permission. Oil prices moved higher overnight with ICE Brent approaching $100 but has since backed off to around unchanged levels.

S&P futures were trading down overnight along with global equities. However, the losses have been reasonably muted as the AI trade is back in focus. Over the weekend, OpenAI’s new Astra model launch generated significant buzz which helped push global tech stocks rally on Monday though they gave back some of those gains. Once again chips/AI infrastructure stocks are moving higher at the expense of the software sector. Oracle is bucking that trend ahead of earnings later this week given their heavy exposure to Open AI. As we head to print the S&P 500 is down ~0.4% though the equal weight version of the index is down around twice that much. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down over 1% with particular weakness in the healthcare components after some disappointing trial results. Small and midcap indices are all modestly lower, though the Russell 2k is outperforming helped by a resurgence in some of thematic favorites. Quantum stocks are moving higher after the Commerce Department finalized CHIPS Act funding awards. Neoclouds, nuclear/SMR and space stocks are also moving higher.   
8 of 11 S&P 500 sectors are trading lower. Energy and yield oriented sectors (REITs/Utes) are the upside standouts. Within REITs data center and tower companies are the best performing. Utilities are broadly higher but the California exposed companies are the best performing recouping some of the recent regulatory related losses. Info tech and industrials are outperforming being helped by the AI strength. Healthcare is the worst performing sector down >2%. Financials are down ~1%, there is pretty broad-based weakness with payments processors, financial data analytics and insurance companies some of the worst performing.  Consumer discretionary is down 0.3% with travel, auto and housing related stocks under pressure. Tesla is up >3% recouping Friday’s post cyber cab event weakness helping to offset a good portion of the losses. 
This morning’s NFIB Small Business survey ticked down from the prior month but remained slightly above historical averages. The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations survey was released after the open. Inflation expectations held pretty steady on the 1/5yr time horizons at 3.6% and 3%, respectively while ticking down 0.1% to 3.2% over the 3yr time horizon. The labor market readings were mixed though the expectation that the unemployment rate will be higher in a year hit its highest level since 2020 up 1.6% to 44.4%. Spending expectations increased by 0.3% to 5.2% but expectations of missing a debt payment increased as well. There continues to be some flattening of the yield curve with the 2yr up a couple of basis points while the long end is unchanged. Keep in mind the previously announced Treasury buyback program begins tomorrow with some expecting the Treasury to buyback >$8B in securities. The US Dollar Index is moving lower. Since Friday much of that has come from yen strength which briefly fell below ¥153/$ earlier today following stronger after stronger GDP readings and nominal wage growth reached a 30y high adding to expectations for a BOJ rate hike next week.

  • US 2yr +2bps to 4.39%, 5yr +1bps to 4.56%, 10yr +1bps to 4.79%, 30yr +1bps to 5.25%
  • USD index: -$0.29 to $98.87
Oil prices have given back much of the overnight move higher. OPEC+ maintained production quotas as expected. US natural gas prices are moving lower but prices in Europe are up ~5%. Metals are mixed. Copper hit a record high in London ahead of potential US tariffs on refined copper that are sending large quantities of the metal to US warehouses. Wheat is extending the recent gains though the rest of the ag complex is mixed. After hitting >$82K, Bitcoin has pulled back the past few days and fell below $79K. ETH is trading in a very tight range ~$2500.  
Europe was mixed on Monday (Germany and UK modestly lower) and major indices closed around unchanged today. German elections are in the news as the right-wing AfD party registered strong regional wins, posing a challenge to chancellor Merz’s government. German exports declined for the first time since January and Industrial Production (Monday) fell unexpectedly as well, mainly from auto weakness. In Japan the Nikkei gave back Monday’s 2% gain as the index fell 1.7%. Softbank however added to its 11% gain on Monday with another 5% gain today while Kioxia fell 4% today (+9% on Monday). Yen strength led to equity weakness, with exporters like autos hit (Toyota, Honda down 4-5%). In China, the Hang Seng fell 0.4%, adding to Monday’s 1% drop, while Shanghai was up modestly again. President Xi is reportedly bringing a large business delegation with him on his summit with trump later this month. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.6% overnight, after gaining 5% on Monday. 
Quickly looking ahead… Consumer credit will be released this afternoon but the economic calendar is barren tomorrow. There are a handful of tech/retail earnings. There are also a bunch of sell side conferences and an Apple iPhone event that could get some attention, as we await the kickoff of the NFL season.

Earnings:
After-Market: BRZE, CASY, GME, TTAN
Pre-Market: ASO, CHWY, CNM, JILL, JMKE, KFY, SAIL, SIG, SUNB
After-Market: AVAV, AEO, NAVN, SKIL, WLTH

Economic data:
US:
  • NFIB Small Business Survey: 98.7 vs 99.3 cons, prior 99.8
  • Used Car Prices m.m / y.y: -0.9% / 0.4% vs prior -1.4% / 1.3%
  • 3:00pm Consumer Credit
Global:
  • China exports / imports: 25% / 28.2% vs 25.0% / 30.0% cons, prior 23.9% / 27.5%
  • Germany exports m.m: -0.8% vs 0.0% cons, prior 0.9%

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