STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr, Market Strategist
Published on 8/18/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 53,400 (-60), S&P 500 7,708 (-37), Russell 2000 3,027 (-30), NYSE FANG+ 18,344 (-154), ICE Brent Crude $91.40/barrel (+$0.53), Gold $4,419/oz (-$55), Bitcoin ~64.8k (+441)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday US equities began the week by continuing the uninspired, summertime action we saw last week. Things turned more negative as the day went on. Oil rose and the long-end of the treasury curve sold off. The Iran situation seems no closer to resolution, if not deteriorating. The ceasefire ended yesterday with no extension agreed to, Iran said it was shifting posture from defensive to “fully offensive” and Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way. The S&P ended down 0.5% but the equal-weight (-0.8%) lagged. The Russell 2000 outperformed modestly. Semis, memory, AI infrastructure and some thematic favs like quantum and robotics were among the best performers. However, hyperscalers and software lagged. Energy was the only sector with meaningful gains in the S&P 500.

Futures were under some additional pressure overnight. Yields continued to move higher, oil remained well bid but tech was reversing yesterday’s gains. There wasn’t a clear catalyst for the tech reversal, some have pointed to commentary from Xiaomi overnight suggesting memory prices will ease in the back half of the year. Fabrinet earnings also led to some weakness in the optical stocks, which have been wildly volatile over the last couple weeks, despite a beat and raise quarter. The tech/momentum weakness has accelerated throughout the session but rotational activity beneath the surface is blunting some of the weakness in the S&P 500, shades of July trading. The NYSE 100 is down >2% with semis/memory both off over 5% but software is higher.

The S&P 500 gapped down ~0.5% to ~7,700 the low end of the recent range and traded in a tight range since (~20pts), with options expiration this week potentially playing a roll in the current pin. The equal-weight version of the index is hovering around unchanged with energy, staples and healthcare all up ~1.5%. Small and midcap indices are down ~1%. Retail thematic favorites are also under significant pressure including quantum, rare earths and robotics ahead of the Unitree IPO in China tonight.
Treasury yields were up a couple of bps overnight with the 10/30yr yields hitting new YTD highs before pulling back right around the open. The continued weakness in the housing market was a focal point in today’s economic data and was also highlighted in the Home Depot earnings despite the company putting up solid results. Housing starts were lower than expected and fell from last month, reaching near a 5-year low. However, Building Permits rose after 2 straight months of declines. After the open pending home sales fell 2.3% and last month’s numbers were also revised lower. Import prices declined for a second straight month driven by fuel imports (-7%) , though they are still up 5.9% y/y. Ex-fuel, import prices rose 0.4% m/m. Computer/electronic product manufacturing import prices rose 1.2% m/m (9.4% y.y). Industrial production was about in line with estimates. The ADP weekly jobs report ticked up slightly from last week breaking a string of declines. Treasury yields are down ~1bp across the curve while the USD index is hovering around unchanged.

  • US 2yr -1bps to 4.18%, 5yr -1bps to 4.37%, 10yr -1bps to 4.71%, 30yr -2bps to 5.29%
  • USD index: -$0.01 to $99.52
Within the S&P 500 7 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Info tech is leading to the downside falling ~2%. Industrials are down ~1% with the AI/energy infrastructure stocks under pressure. Defense and professional services (BR/VRSK/ADP/RHI) are trading higher. Metals and mining stocks are weighing on the materials sector. Comm services rounds out the sectors trading to the downside but the weakness is primarily from Meta/Alphabet while media/telecom stocks trade higher.

 Home Depot and Amer Sports kicked off this week’s retail earnings, and both stocks are trading modestly higher after solid results. Home Depot beat across most metrics highlighting strength in smaller DYI projects but only reaffirmed guidance given the overarching uncertainty and weak housing market backdrop. The results seem to be helping the retail complex broadly but housing related stocks remain under pressure. Consumer staples are benefitting from the rotation with every stock in the sector trading higher including the big box retailers. In consumer discretionary apparel, specialty retail and online travel companies are the best performing. Housing and auto-related, cruise/casino stocks are under pressure. Consumer related earnings will be in focus again over the next 24 hours (After Market - LZB/TOL Pre Market- EL/LOW/TGT/TJX/VIK).  

Healthcare is the best performing sector with pretty broad-based strength. Pharma and large cap bio are outperforming (small cap bio mixed). Life science tools and insurers are lagging. Within financials payments processors and data analytics companies are the best performing while crypto related and banks underperform.  REITS and Utilities are both modestly higher. 
Most major European indices ended down just under 1% near session lows. The underlying trading very similar to the US with tech, miners and industrials lagging while energy and retail outperformed. The FTSE 100 ended around unchanged given the heavy pharma and energy weightings.  German and EU ZEW surveys were better than expected and improved from last month. The Nikkei fell 2.5% overnight with tech getting hit (Advantest -5%, Kioxia -8%). Softbank is planning a $6B retail-focused bond offering, which would be the largest retail-targeted debt offering ever in Japan according to reports. Japan’s life insurers are now sitting on nearly $200B in unrealized bond losses due the fall in JGBs. In light of that, the 5y JGB auction was relatively strong. India’s NSE, its largest exchange, is seeking to IPO at ~$55B, which would make it the largest ever Indian IPO and the latest blockbuster new listing globally. Mainland China and Hong Kong were marginally higher. Baidu is trading down >10% after earnings released this morning. While global yields are rising China is one major exception. Its 10y yield hit a one-year low as economic data continues to be weak. 
Brent is slightly higher, consolidating yesterday’s gains. Yesterday US nat gas reversed early losses and there is some upside follow through today while prices are up nearly 4% in Europe. Metals were modestly lower overnight and accelerated to the downside after the open. Ag is mixed. Ahead of tomorrow’s meeting with crypto and prediction market executives the complex is trading modestly higher. 
Earnings:
After-Market (Tues): JKHY, KEYS, LZB, MRCY, TOL, ZTO
Pre-Market: ADI, EL, FLNG, LOW, TGT, TJX, VIK
After-Market: BILL, BULL, COTY, IOND, NDSN, WOLF

Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP weekly employment: 9.5K vs prior 8.25K
  • Housing Starts: 1.239M vs 1.35M cons, prior 1.427M
  • Permits: 1.443M vs 1.37M cons, prior 1.374M
  • Import Prices m.m: -0.4% vs 0.1% cons, prior -0.3%
  • Export Prices m.m: -1.3% vs 0.2% cons, prior -0.7%
  • NY Fed Services activity: 0.5 vs prior 8.7   
  • Industrial Production: 0.2% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.3%
  • Pending Home Sales: -2.3% vs. 0.3% cons., prior -4.8%
  • 4:30pm API crude inventories
Global:
  • Germany ZEW Current Conditions: -61.1 vs -69.5 cons, prior -77.6
  • Germany ZEW Expectations: 34.2 vs 30 cons, prior 26.3
  • Europe Expectations: 31.4 vs 25.4 cons, prior 23.4  
  • UK Unemployment: 4.9% vs 4.8% cons, prior 4.9%

By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates.  Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.

Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.

© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.  All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates.  For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.