STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/14/26 (a/o 2:15 pm)
DOW 52,458 (-115), S&P 500 7,636 (-21), Russell 2000 2,898 (-6), NYSE FANG+ 18,719 (+104), ICE Brent Crude $105.57/barrel (+$0.96), Gold $4,349/oz (-$60), Bitcoin ~79.1k (+2012)
- Have you tried unplugging it?
- Still finding support
- 10y hits 5.0% before pulling back
- FOMC looming
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 553: Brixmor CEO Brian Finnegan on the Symbiotic Bond Between Retail and Community
- ETF Central: ETF Focus Partners Wealth Senior Wealth Advisor Adam Yofan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: First Look - Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improve
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
US equities rallied on Friday but ended the week down 0.8%. The index tested its 50d ma and the lower end of the recent range ~7,600. The AI factor helped the index outperform while there was broad weakness under the surface. The equal-weight and small/mid cap indices ended the week down ~2%. Oil was up ~10% for the second consecutive week as the US and Iran continued to exchange fire, the situation in the Red Sea deteriorated and Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline. The inflation data was largely inline with expectations but the fact there wasn’t meaningful progress coupled with the rise in oil sent Treasury yields and expectations for a hike this Wednesday sharply higher, adding to the equity headwinds.
Market-implied odds of a rate hike stand at roughly 90%. Expectations that the Giants and Jets would both win yesterday and start the season 1-0 were likely much less. It was the first time both won their opening week games since 2009. Same year a baseball team in the Bronx last won the World Series.
With NY football fans pumped/shocked, equity futures were decidedly less enthusiastic, under pressure as oil prices resumed their climb after news that today’s expected meeting in Oman between Gulf states and Iran was postponed. The Houthis continued to capture Yemen territory and the East-West pipeline remained shut.
Adding to the oil-generated headwinds for equities was a direct hit on the AI ecosystem. Over the weekend Anthropic’s CEO published an essay calling for the slowdown of AI model development to better understand security risks involved. It received support from other AI leaders. As General Beringer said in War Games, just unplug the damn thing.
President Trump was less enthused about the idea of slowing down AI development, posting, "There is a SICK conspiracy going on against AI and Data Centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China. WHOEVER WINDS AI, WINS! We are leading China, and all others, and will continue to do so." AI capex-exposed stocks are under pressure. The DRAM ETF and ICE Semis index are down ~5% today. The S&P was down ~0.8% at its lows just after the open. However, the index once again found support as it traded down to its 50d ma (7600). That was also around the time some positive news on the Ukraine war came out. The S&P rallied off that level and is currently down ~0.3%. The equal-weight is about flat. Small caps are down modestly.
While the chip names are lower, the hyperscalers are higher outside of AMZN. Comm Services is the leading sector today as GOOG and META are up ~3% each, while cable/telecom/media stocks are also broadly higher. Staples and Healthcare round out the defensively-leaning outperformers today. Discretionary is also seeing a good portion of the sector trade higher. Industrials is lagging with the AI-exposed capex and electrical stocks under pressure (GEV, ETN, GNRC, CAT, FIX, etc down ~5%). Tech is mostly under pressure as noted above, but software is a big exception, especially cybersecurity stocks (CRWD, PANW up >10%). Materials, and Utilities are also underperforming.
There's nothing on the US economic calendar today. Treasury yields have pulled back from their highs, especially on the longer-end as oil came in, but not before the 10y hit 5.0%. The US Dollar Index is higher, with the yen weakening in particular and reversing Friday's move.
- US 2yr +0bps to 4.63%, 5yr -0bps to 4.78%, 10yr -1bps to 4.96%, 30yr -3bps to 5.33%
- USD index: +$0.28 to $99.13
Brent crude took another run to $110- the 3rd straight day- on the back of the Oman meeting postponement, but was once again unable to hold the level. It's currently back near intraday lows ~$105, up ~1%. The commodity was already pulling back when President Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed to not hit each other's energy targets. Additional downside pressure came from news the Saudis were further increasing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the energy news US and European natural gas is higher.
The metals complex is lower, weighed down by US Dollar strength today. Gold bounced off its 50d ma ~$4300 earlier as did silver. Bitcoin is up 2% and near its HOD as it looks to break through $80K- the top of the range its been in since August's rip. The administration reportedly agreed to some ethics provisions ahead of a key Clarity Act vote tomorrow.
Global markets were mostly lower overnight with tech-heavy indices underperforming. South Korea fell >3% with weakness in the Memory Duo. The Nikkei fell just under 1% with financials, software and retail offsetting tech weakness. Softbank got hit for ~10% after Open AI confirmed it would not IPO this year. European indices were down ~0.5%. The FTSE 100 outperformed with healthcare, staples and energy offsetting weakness elsewhere. ECB President Lagarde gave a speech on European AI, pushing the region to develop its own ecosystem while evolving its capital markets to enable the financing of that ecosystem.
Earnings:
After-Market: PLAY, RLGT
Pre-Market: FPS, VRA
After-Market: EPM, TCOM
Economic data:
US:
- None
Global:
- China loan growth: 4.9% vs. 5.1% cons., prior 5.1%
- India inflation: 4.82% y.y vs. 4.8% cons, prior 4.44%
- Canada CPI / core m.m: -0.1% / 0.1% vs 0% / 0.2% cons., prior 0.5% / 0.2%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 9/14/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Despite rallying on Friday, equity markets ended last week lower heading into this week’s FOMC rate decision and triple witch expiration. Oil prices were up ~10% for the second consecutive week as the US and Iran continued to exchange fire, the situation in the Red Sea deteriorated and Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline. Oil prices did pull back from the highs on Friday after reports that that members of the Gulf Cooperation Council would meet with Iranian officials in Oman today. The week’s inflation data was largely inline with expectations but the fact that there wasn’t meaningful progress coupled with the rise in oil prices sent Treasury yields sharply higher, with markets now expecting a hike on Wednesday. The S&P 500 closed the week down 0.8% after testing its 50d ma and the lower end of the recent range ~7,600. The AI factor helped the index outperform while there was broad based weakness under the surface with the equal-weight and small/mid cap indices ending the week down ~2%.
The biggest news coming out of the weekend was that the Jets and Giants both won their opening game of the season for the first time since 2009. That has put me in a better mood writing this morning’s note but unfortunately that is where the positivity gets short circuited. Futures are under pressure this morning with oil prices back on the move higher again as today’s meeting in Oman was postponed, Houthis continue to capture territory on the coast of Yemen, and the East-West pipeline remains shut. However, unlike last week tech is not the stabilizing force but rather the source of much of the weakness. Over the weekend Anthropic’s CEO published an essay calling for the slowdown of AI model development to better understand security risks involved, which has received support from other AI leaders. Companies levered to the AI capex boom: chips, memory, neoclouds and industrials are down >5%. The software sector is catching a bid (IGV +2%) while hyperscalers are outperforming. S&P futures are down ~0.75% which if we open at these levels would put the S&P 500 ~7,600 again. Dow and R2k futures are down ~0.5%.
There is no US economic data on the calendar today. Treasury yields are modestly higher. The 2yr is up 2bps hitting a new YTD high while the 10yr is sitting just under the closely watched 5% level. The USD index is up ~0.5%, breaking back above its 200d ma (~$99).
Global markets were mostly lower overnight with tech heavy indices underperforming. South Korea fell >3%. The Nikkei was down just under 1% with financials, software and retail offsetting tech weakness. Softbank was down ~10% after Open AI confirmed it would not IPO this year. European indices are modestly lower. The FTSE 100 is bucking the weakness with strength in healthcare, staples and energy.
The energy complex is moving higher. ICE Brent is up >4% approaching $110 again. President Trump has called on Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries as diesel prices top $6/gallon in the US. Nat gas prices are also rallying up ~2% in the US and >5% in Europe. The USD strength is weighing on the metals complex. Gold is down ~2% trading just under the September lows but holding just above its 50d ma (~4,300). Ag is modestly higher. Crypto bounced modestly overnight on reports that the administration had agreed to some ethics provisions ahead of a key vote tomorrow. On Polymarket odds that the Clarity Act would be signed into law by the end of 2026 have jumped to ~30% from the high teens late last week.
Economic Data:
US:
Despite rallying on Friday, equity markets ended last week lower heading into this week’s FOMC rate decision and triple witch expiration. Oil prices were up ~10% for the second consecutive week as the US and Iran continued to exchange fire, the situation in the Red Sea deteriorated and Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline. Oil prices did pull back from the highs on Friday after reports that that members of the Gulf Cooperation Council would meet with Iranian officials in Oman today. The week’s inflation data was largely inline with expectations but the fact that there wasn’t meaningful progress coupled with the rise in oil prices sent Treasury yields sharply higher, with markets now expecting a hike on Wednesday. The S&P 500 closed the week down 0.8% after testing its 50d ma and the lower end of the recent range ~7,600. The AI factor helped the index outperform while there was broad based weakness under the surface with the equal-weight and small/mid cap indices ending the week down ~2%.
The biggest news coming out of the weekend was that the Jets and Giants both won their opening game of the season for the first time since 2009. That has put me in a better mood writing this morning’s note but unfortunately that is where the positivity gets short circuited. Futures are under pressure this morning with oil prices back on the move higher again as today’s meeting in Oman was postponed, Houthis continue to capture territory on the coast of Yemen, and the East-West pipeline remains shut. However, unlike last week tech is not the stabilizing force but rather the source of much of the weakness. Over the weekend Anthropic’s CEO published an essay calling for the slowdown of AI model development to better understand security risks involved, which has received support from other AI leaders. Companies levered to the AI capex boom: chips, memory, neoclouds and industrials are down >5%. The software sector is catching a bid (IGV +2%) while hyperscalers are outperforming. S&P futures are down ~0.75% which if we open at these levels would put the S&P 500 ~7,600 again. Dow and R2k futures are down ~0.5%.
There is no US economic data on the calendar today. Treasury yields are modestly higher. The 2yr is up 2bps hitting a new YTD high while the 10yr is sitting just under the closely watched 5% level. The USD index is up ~0.5%, breaking back above its 200d ma (~$99).
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.64%, 5yr +1bps to 4.80%, 10yr +0bps to 4.98%, 30yr -0bps to 5.35%
- USD index: +$0.50 to $99.35
Global markets were mostly lower overnight with tech heavy indices underperforming. South Korea fell >3%. The Nikkei was down just under 1% with financials, software and retail offsetting tech weakness. Softbank was down ~10% after Open AI confirmed it would not IPO this year. European indices are modestly lower. The FTSE 100 is bucking the weakness with strength in healthcare, staples and energy.
The energy complex is moving higher. ICE Brent is up >4% approaching $110 again. President Trump has called on Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries as diesel prices top $6/gallon in the US. Nat gas prices are also rallying up ~2% in the US and >5% in Europe. The USD strength is weighing on the metals complex. Gold is down ~2% trading just under the September lows but holding just above its 50d ma (~4,300). Ag is modestly higher. Crypto bounced modestly overnight on reports that the administration had agreed to some ethics provisions ahead of a key vote tomorrow. On Polymarket odds that the Clarity Act would be signed into law by the end of 2026 have jumped to ~30% from the high teens late last week.
Economic Data:
US:
- 11:30 3/6mo Tbill auction
- China loan growth: 4.9% vs. 5.1% cons., prior 5.1%
- India inflation: 4.82% y.y vs. 4.8% cons., prior 4.44%
- Canada CPI/core: -0.1%/0.1% vs. 0%/0.2% cons., prior 0.5%/0.2%
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