STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 10/23/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning and Happy Friday,
There was another Tech Wreck yesterday following META earnings the night prior as the broad issue of AI funding concerns took hold of equities. However, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, the equal-weight rose 0.7% and Russell was slightly higher. The selling was concentrated in tech and there was a broad rotation into other/defensive areas. Consumer Staples gained 3% and 6/11 sectors were up on the day. The rotation was also apparent in the move in yields, which tumbled 10-20bp across the curve despite oil seeing strong gains as investors reached for safety, which also pushed Utlities solidly higher.
S&P futures were around flat overnight but began to weaken during early European trading and are now near their lows today. Most sectors are lower in the pre-market with only Real Estate and Energy sector ETFs showing gains. Telecom stocks are under pressure on news of SPCX wireless business plans (that’s boosting tower stocks on the other hand). Tech stocks are mixed, with memory names bouncing: SKHY is up 4%, and while WDC is down ~3% its well off its lows following earnings. American Express is down 2% on its earnings.
US treasury yields are slightly higher after yesterday’s huge moves, as is the US Dollar Index. US flash PMIs will be out after the Open.
Asian equities saw strong reversals from initial weakness. In Japan the Nikkei opened lower, immediately tested its 200d ma ~61.5K and rebounded throughout the session to end the day down 0.3% and -4.0% for the week. Some tech stocks saw strong intraday reversals: Kioxia was down ~10% at one point but finished the day up 1%. Nippon Steel will invest $3B to update a 90-year-old steel mill in the US. Flash Manufacturing PMI fell versus last month while Services rose. The Nikkei reported that the BOJ will leave its policy rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. China’s Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes ended higher. For the week the Hang Seng fell ~5% while Shanghai fell ~1%. Despite the US tech weakness yesterday South Korea ended higher and only saw a loss of ~2% this week. SK Hynix +4% helped overcome broader weakness on Friday, and the company is pulling plans to list its Solidigm business in the US after Korean regulatory issues. European equities are down at their lows, with major indexes down ~2% for the week. Telecom is under pressure on the SPCX news. Energy is higher on oil’s gains. Volvo Cars is down over 20% on earnings. Industrial/Defense names Rolls Royce and Safran are down ~8%. German PMIs were better than expected while France was weaker- not terribly surprising given the turmoil.
Brent crude is up another ~2% today, and 5% this week, trading around $115. Trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia will reportedly take place in Abu Dhabi in early November but the overhang of the restart of Middle East hostilities remain. Following a slight pause yesterday, US natural gas is moving lower again, while European gas jumps another 4%. Weakness across precious metals continues through copper is slightly higher. After sharp losses yesterday Bitcoin and Ether are around unchanged.
Earnings:
US:
Global:
Manufacturing / Services Flash PMIs:
There was another Tech Wreck yesterday following META earnings the night prior as the broad issue of AI funding concerns took hold of equities. However, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, the equal-weight rose 0.7% and Russell was slightly higher. The selling was concentrated in tech and there was a broad rotation into other/defensive areas. Consumer Staples gained 3% and 6/11 sectors were up on the day. The rotation was also apparent in the move in yields, which tumbled 10-20bp across the curve despite oil seeing strong gains as investors reached for safety, which also pushed Utlities solidly higher.
S&P futures were around flat overnight but began to weaken during early European trading and are now near their lows today. Most sectors are lower in the pre-market with only Real Estate and Energy sector ETFs showing gains. Telecom stocks are under pressure on news of SPCX wireless business plans (that’s boosting tower stocks on the other hand). Tech stocks are mixed, with memory names bouncing: SKHY is up 4%, and while WDC is down ~3% its well off its lows following earnings. American Express is down 2% on its earnings.
US treasury yields are slightly higher after yesterday’s huge moves, as is the US Dollar Index. US flash PMIs will be out after the Open.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.66%, 5yr +1bps to 4.79%, 10yr +1bps to 4.97%, 30yr +1bps to 5.29%
- USD index: +$0.03 to $101.47
Asian equities saw strong reversals from initial weakness. In Japan the Nikkei opened lower, immediately tested its 200d ma ~61.5K and rebounded throughout the session to end the day down 0.3% and -4.0% for the week. Some tech stocks saw strong intraday reversals: Kioxia was down ~10% at one point but finished the day up 1%. Nippon Steel will invest $3B to update a 90-year-old steel mill in the US. Flash Manufacturing PMI fell versus last month while Services rose. The Nikkei reported that the BOJ will leave its policy rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. China’s Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes ended higher. For the week the Hang Seng fell ~5% while Shanghai fell ~1%. Despite the US tech weakness yesterday South Korea ended higher and only saw a loss of ~2% this week. SK Hynix +4% helped overcome broader weakness on Friday, and the company is pulling plans to list its Solidigm business in the US after Korean regulatory issues. European equities are down at their lows, with major indexes down ~2% for the week. Telecom is under pressure on the SPCX news. Energy is higher on oil’s gains. Volvo Cars is down over 20% on earnings. Industrial/Defense names Rolls Royce and Safran are down ~8%. German PMIs were better than expected while France was weaker- not terribly surprising given the turmoil.
Brent crude is up another ~2% today, and 5% this week, trading around $115. Trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia will reportedly take place in Abu Dhabi in early November but the overhang of the restart of Middle East hostilities remain. Following a slight pause yesterday, US natural gas is moving lower again, while European gas jumps another 4%. Weakness across precious metals continues through copper is slightly higher. After sharp losses yesterday Bitcoin and Ether are around unchanged.
Earnings:
- After-Market: ABCB, APPF, ASB, BE, BY, BYD, COLB, CUBI, DECK, FIX, KN, KNSL, KRC, MXL, NEM, OMC, REXR, RNG, SAM, SLM, VRSN, WDC, ZGN
- Pre-Market: ALV, AXP, BAH, FCNC, FLG, HTH, RITM, SLB
US:
- 9:45am Flash PMIs
- 10:00am U of Mich final sentiment
- 1:00pm Rig Count
Global:
Manufacturing / Services Flash PMIs:
- Japan: 53.3 / 52.0 vs prior 54.1 / 51.3
- Australia: 49.7 / 47.8 vs prior 49.6 / 51.9
- India: 54.9 / 56.2 vs prior 55.1 / 55.2
- UK: 52.8 / 53.1 vs 51.7 / 51.8 cons, prior 51.9 / 52.1
- Germany: 54.2 / 51.7 vs 53.5 / 52.5 cons, prior 53.9 / 52.9
- France: 49.3 / 48.4 vs 50.5 / 50.7 cons, prior 50.6 / 51.2
- EU: 52.4 / 51.7 vs 52.7 / 52.5 cons, prior 52.9 / 53.0
- UK July Retail Sales m.m: -0.4% vs -0.1% cons, prior 0.7%
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence: -24 vs -15 cons, prior -13
- Japan inflation ex-food and energy: 2.4% vs prior 1.9%
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