STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/3/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 53,685 (+623), S&P 500 7,747 (+81), Russell 2000 2,967 (+14), NYSE FANG+ 18,893 (+311), ICE Brent Crude $95.80/barrel (+$0.17), Gold $4,539/oz (+$125), Bitcoin ~81.1k (+3832)
- Mega caps leading stocks higher
- Rates retreat, Dollar tumbles
- Precious metals, crypto jump
- Monthly payrolls tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
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- Inside the ICE House Biotech Series: Inceptive CEO Jakob Uszkoreit on Designing Medicines That Work Like Life Itself
- ETF Central: ETF Central: Horizon Head of Product Clark Allen
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improve
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
US equities finished higher yesterday. The S&P stopped a 3-day losing streak and gained 0.4%, along with the equal-weight, while small caps outperformed as the Russell gained 1.1%. This despite crude continuing to climb. We tested and held the bottom-end of the 7600-7800 range the S&P has been in since early August. A modest decline in yields helped sentiment and only one sector, Real Estate, finished in the red. Materials, Comm Services, Healthcare and Financials led. DELL saw sharp gains after its earnings, while other tech reporters like PANW and CRDO were sharply lower despite solid prints. ADP payrolls missed, easing some of the September rate hike push, along with dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams.
Equity futures were lower yesterday evening before moving higher along with a strengthening yen. We then drifted sideways for most of the overnight session but moved higher on Fed governor Waller’s comments leading off his speech this morning, in which he said that we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation. He added he’s inclined to hold rates steady at the next meeting if August inflation data continues to show progress. That followed Williams' dovish comments yesterday. With two of the most prominent Fed members tossing doves out to the crowd like a Prince concert, back-to-back- markets took yields lower. The S&P 500 opened up 0.3% and has steadily added to gains, currently up 1%. The equal-weight and Russell 2000 are also higher but lagging. Megacaps are doing a lot of the work today- the NYSE 100 is up >1%
A few quick hits on some of the earnings reports :
- AVGO (-4%) reported a strong quarter but not blowout quarter. Concern of share loss in Google’s TPUs was allayed but revenue guidance disappointed.
- SNOW (+20%) is the standout, up big on its report. The software company’s results showed AI is catalyzing growth rather than displace it.
- HPE (-3%) is lower despite a solid quarter.
- CPB (-9%), on a guidance miss, cutting dividend and margin pressure from cost inflation.
The DOJ filed a brief supporting OpenAI in its fight against NYT over the use of copyrighted material to train AI models. This cuts right to the foundation of these foundation models- the use of all written material ever created to build them.
SNOW is turbocharging software today as the IGV ETF gains over 3%, erasing some of software's losses earlier in the week. Semis and memory are sluggish, however. Cyclical groups are leading today. For Discretionary, autos are higher including a 7% gain for Tesla ahead of a Cybercab event later tonight. Restaurants are lower but retail and apparel are higher. META and GOOG gains are driving Comm Services strength. Financials are also leading today. Almost the entire sector is higher but the crypto-focused exchanges HOOD and COIN are up over 10% as Bitcoin regains $80K. Energy (crude flat), Healthcare and Materials are all flat to modestly lower.
Yields had eased heading into Waller’s speech and took another step down on the disinflation comments. We're a little off the lows but yields are down 2-4bp across the curve as it steepens. The US Dollar Index is sharply lower, moving down throughout the day. The Swiss inflation surprise has sent the Franc up almost 1% against the Dollar and the yen is climbing almost 2%. Today's move has reversed most of the recent strengthening that occurred post-Treasury buyback news.
- US 2yr -4bps to 4.33%, 5yr -3bps to 4.50%, 10yr -3bps to 4.76%, 30yr -2bps to 5.24%
- USD index: -$0.70 to $98.85
Services PMI was better than expected and rose improved from last month. New Orders improved and at over 60 are well into expansion territory. Prices rose as well however.
Brent crude has pulled back from its highs ~$97.75, trading around unchanged now and putting the streak of four straight gains in jeopardy. The dollar weakness is pushing gold and other metals higher. Gold is testing resistance at the 200d ma/$4540. Similar dynamics are taking Bitcoin higher, and it has punched through $80K, the high-end of its recent range and looking to get back to May highs.
European equities followed the US higher into their closes. Telecom, media, mining and financials led. Elliot has reportedly built a stake in Deutsche Telecom and is opposing its merger with TMUS. Consumer/luxury names were lagging, pushing France to underperform. French election and fiscal developments are dominating the news in that country. Swiss inflation surprised to the upside. The central bank has pegged rates at 0% and consensus has them on hold through 2027. European PPI was hotter than expected and rise from last month. The Nikkei was down 0.2%. Yesterday’s spike in the yen triggered discussion of another yentervention. It was later attributed to condensed reaction to a bunch of hawkish talk from BOJ officials and Bessent. The yen continued to strengthen overnight. The 30y JGB auction was a bit softer than expected but could have been a lot worse. A September rate hike is almost 100% priced in, along with almost 3 hikes overall by March. Berkshire CEO Abel said BRK wants to increase its ownership of Japanese trading houses. In China Shanghai was unchanged while Hong Kong fell 0.4% with the big consumer internet stocks lower. RatingDog Services PMI of 51.6 rose from July’s 50.4 and beat estimates of 50.6. Refiners will be allowed to begin exporting fuel this month as Beijing eases restrictions that have been in place since March, according to reports.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AMBA, ASAN, CURV, DOCU, DOMO, GWRE, IOT, LULU, NX, OXM, PATH, PL, SWBI, ZS
- Pre-Market: None
Economic Data:
US:
- Weely claims: 206K vs 205K cons, prior 204K
- Continuing claims: 1779.0K vs prior 1771K
- Challenger Job cuts: 52.881K vs prior 33.429K
- Final Labor Productivity q.q: 1.4%, unchanged from initial
- Unit labor costs q.q: 1.2%, down from 1.3% intial
- July Trade Balance: $-88.6B vs $-90B cons, prior $-71.2B
- Exports: $310.7B vs prior $314.7B
- Imports: $399.3B vs prior $388.5B
- Services PM: 55.4 vs 54.3 cons, prior 54.1
- 3:00pm Fed Hammack speech
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
- China RatingDog Services: 51.4 vs cons 50.6, prior 50.4
- Switzerland CPI: m.m: 0.4% vs 0.0% cons, prior -0.1%
- Europe PPI m.m: 1.6% vs 1.2% cons, prior -0.3%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/3/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
US equities finished higher yesterday, bouncing after three straight days of declines. The S&P and equal-weight rose 0.4%, while small caps outperformed as the Russell gained 1.1%. The S&P stopped a three day losing streak. We’ve tested and held the bottom-end of the 7600-7800 range of the S&P since early August. A modest decline in yields helped sentiment and only one sector, Real Estate, finished in the red. Materials (metals higher), Comm Services, Healthcare and Financials led. This despite crude continuing to climb. DELL saw sharp gains after its earnings, while other tech reporters like PANW and CRDO were sharply lower despite solid prints. ADP payrolls missed, easing some of the September rate hike push.
Equity futures were lower yesterday evening but began to strengthen along with the yen. We then drifted sideways for most of the overnight session but moved higher on Fed governor Waller’s comments leading off his speech, in which he said that we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation. He added he’s inclined to hold rates steady at the next meeting if August inflation data continues to show progress.
A few tech reports to digest this morning:
AVGO (-3%) reported a strong quarter but not blowout quarter. Concern of share loss in Google’s TPUs was allayed but revenue guidance disappointed.
SNOW (+25%) is up big on its report. The software company’s results showed AI is catalyzing growth rather than displace it.
HPE (-5%) is lower despite a solid quarter.
The DOJ filed a brief supporting OpenAI in its fight against NYT over the use of copyrighted material to train AI models. This cuts right to the foundation of these foundation models- the use of all written material ever created to build them.
Yields were lower heading into Waller’s speech and took another step down on the disinflation comments. The 2y and 10y are down ~5bp, 10y down 5bp and US Dollar Index is lower as well. The Swiss inflation surprise has sent the France up almost 1% against the Dollar and the yen is climbing almost 2%.
Brent crude is higher again, looking to make it four straight but unable to push yields up. Iran claimed new attacks on US bases in the region. Gold and other metals are higher on the yield and dollar move. Bitcoin and ETH are up 1-2% but remain in their recent range.
European equities are mostly higher. Telecom, media, mining and financials are leading. Elliot has reportedly built a stake in Deutsche Telecom and is opposing its merger with TMUS. Consumer/luxury names are lower, pushing France to underperform. French election and fiscal developments are dominating the news in that country. Swiss inflation surprised to the upside. The central bank has pegged rates at 0% and consensus has them on hold through 2027. European PPI was hotter than expected and rise from last month. The Nikkei was down 0.2%. Yesterday’s spike in the yen triggered discussion of another yentervention. It was later attributed to condensed reaction to a bunch of hawkish talk from BOJ officials and Bessent. The yen continued to strengthen overnight. The 30y JGB auction was a bit softer than expected but could have been a lot worse. A September rate hike is almost 100% priced in, along with almost 3 hikes overall by March. Berkshire CEO Abel said BRK wanted to increase its ownership of Japanese trading houses. In China Shanghai was unchanged while Hong Kong fell 0.4% with the big consumer internet stocks lower. RatingDog Services PMI of 51.6 rose from July’s 50.4 and beat estimates of 50.6. Refiners will be allowed to begin exporting fuel this month as Beijing eases restrictions that have been in place since March, according to reports.
Earnings
After-Market: AGX, AVGO, AI, CHPT, FIVE, GOLD, HPE, NTAP, NTSK, PHR, PVH, SNOW, TLYS, WOOF
Pre-Market: BRC, CIEN, CPB, DLTH, GCO, LE, MOMO, PSNY, TTC, VSXY, WLY
After-Market: AMBA, ASAN, CURV, DOCU, DOMO, GWRE, IOT, LULU, NX, OXM, PATH, PL, SWBI, ZS
Economic Data:
US:
US equities finished higher yesterday, bouncing after three straight days of declines. The S&P and equal-weight rose 0.4%, while small caps outperformed as the Russell gained 1.1%. The S&P stopped a three day losing streak. We’ve tested and held the bottom-end of the 7600-7800 range of the S&P since early August. A modest decline in yields helped sentiment and only one sector, Real Estate, finished in the red. Materials (metals higher), Comm Services, Healthcare and Financials led. This despite crude continuing to climb. DELL saw sharp gains after its earnings, while other tech reporters like PANW and CRDO were sharply lower despite solid prints. ADP payrolls missed, easing some of the September rate hike push.
Equity futures were lower yesterday evening but began to strengthen along with the yen. We then drifted sideways for most of the overnight session but moved higher on Fed governor Waller’s comments leading off his speech, in which he said that we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation. He added he’s inclined to hold rates steady at the next meeting if August inflation data continues to show progress.
A few tech reports to digest this morning:
AVGO (-3%) reported a strong quarter but not blowout quarter. Concern of share loss in Google’s TPUs was allayed but revenue guidance disappointed.
SNOW (+25%) is up big on its report. The software company’s results showed AI is catalyzing growth rather than displace it.
HPE (-5%) is lower despite a solid quarter.
The DOJ filed a brief supporting OpenAI in its fight against NYT over the use of copyrighted material to train AI models. This cuts right to the foundation of these foundation models- the use of all written material ever created to build them.
Yields were lower heading into Waller’s speech and took another step down on the disinflation comments. The 2y and 10y are down ~5bp, 10y down 5bp and US Dollar Index is lower as well. The Swiss inflation surprise has sent the France up almost 1% against the Dollar and the yen is climbing almost 2%.
- US 2yr -5bps to 4.32%, 5yr -5bps to 4.49%, 10yr -4bps to 4.74%, 30yr -3bps to 5.23%
- USD index: -$0.63 to $98.93
Brent crude is higher again, looking to make it four straight but unable to push yields up. Iran claimed new attacks on US bases in the region. Gold and other metals are higher on the yield and dollar move. Bitcoin and ETH are up 1-2% but remain in their recent range.
European equities are mostly higher. Telecom, media, mining and financials are leading. Elliot has reportedly built a stake in Deutsche Telecom and is opposing its merger with TMUS. Consumer/luxury names are lower, pushing France to underperform. French election and fiscal developments are dominating the news in that country. Swiss inflation surprised to the upside. The central bank has pegged rates at 0% and consensus has them on hold through 2027. European PPI was hotter than expected and rise from last month. The Nikkei was down 0.2%. Yesterday’s spike in the yen triggered discussion of another yentervention. It was later attributed to condensed reaction to a bunch of hawkish talk from BOJ officials and Bessent. The yen continued to strengthen overnight. The 30y JGB auction was a bit softer than expected but could have been a lot worse. A September rate hike is almost 100% priced in, along with almost 3 hikes overall by March. Berkshire CEO Abel said BRK wanted to increase its ownership of Japanese trading houses. In China Shanghai was unchanged while Hong Kong fell 0.4% with the big consumer internet stocks lower. RatingDog Services PMI of 51.6 rose from July’s 50.4 and beat estimates of 50.6. Refiners will be allowed to begin exporting fuel this month as Beijing eases restrictions that have been in place since March, according to reports.
Earnings
After-Market: AGX, AVGO, AI, CHPT, FIVE, GOLD, HPE, NTAP, NTSK, PHR, PVH, SNOW, TLYS, WOOF
Pre-Market: BRC, CIEN, CPB, DLTH, GCO, LE, MOMO, PSNY, TTC, VSXY, WLY
After-Market: AMBA, ASAN, CURV, DOCU, DOMO, GWRE, IOT, LULU, NX, OXM, PATH, PL, SWBI, ZS
Economic Data:
US:
- Weely claims: 206K vs 205K cons, prior 204K
- Continuing claims: 1779.0K vs prior 1771K
- Challenger Job cuts: 52.881K vs prior 33.429K
- Final Labor Productivity q.q: 1.4%, unchanged from initial
- Unit labor costs q.q: 1.2%, down from 1.3% intial
- July Trade Balance: $-88.6B vs $-90B cons, prior $-71.2B
- Exports: $310.7B vs prior $314.7B
- Imports: $399.3B vs prior $388.5B
- 10:00am Services PM
- 3:00pm Fed Hammack speech
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
- China RatingDog Services: 51.4 vs cons 50.6, prior 50.4
- Switzerland CPI: m.m: 0.4% vs 0.0% cons, prior -0.1%
- Europe PPI m.m: 1.6% vs 1.2% cons, prior -0.3%
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