STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 2/25/26
DOW 49,216 (+412), S&P 500 6,887 (+50), Russell 2000 2,651 (+30), NYSE FANG+ 14,155 (+51), ICE Brent Crude $71.10/barrel (-$0.39), Gold $5,176/oz (-$50), Bitcoin ~64.3k (-257)
  • Stabilization continues
  • S&P higher ahead of a big night of earnings...
  • but breadth belies the headline: most sectors, equal-weight lower
  • Crypto jumping
  • Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • Inside the ICE House
  • Episode 514: Transocean CEO Keelan Adamson on Rigs, Risk & the Future of Energy
  • ETF Central: Former NFL Star & Champion Venture Partners' Marques Colston
  • February 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report: Early-January Rate Decline Unlocks Refinance Opportunity for Nearly 5 Million Homeowners
  • Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday US equites rebounded from Monday’s hypothetical thought-experiment AI-Doom-triggered weakness (see Citrini Research post). The S&P and the equal-weight gained 0.8% while the Russell added over 1% in a broad rally. The IGV software ETF rebounded 2% after Monday’s 5% drop. Big Tech was mostly higher. AMD gained 9% after a new deal supplying AI chips to Meta could see the later eventually take a 10% stake in the former. Yields were flat to slightly higher. Helping the bounce was Anthropic’s event that was more about forging partnerships than ushering in total economic disruption. That allowed beaten-up areas to catch a breadth, at least for the moment. The Pentagon, however, is threatening to use its national security powers to assess the company’s technology in a growing beef between the two sides.  

This morning it was snowing, yet again, as I boarded the train, apparently enough for my kids’ school to be cancelled, yet again, despite what was only a modest dusting.  Speaking of modest dustings, despite the Supreme Court judges having their typical front-row seats for last night’s POTUS SOTU, President Trump left them largely unscathed for their IEEPA ruling. I guess he got it all out the day of the decision. The entire event was a non-event for markets. The President discussed numerous policy ideas, many already out in the ether: limiting/stopping investment firm ownership of housing, drug price negotiations and redirecting federal payments from insurers to consumers, retirement savings accounts for those without employer plans, among others. He also touted declines in daily expense items- eggs, beef, energy. On Iran he said his preference was resolution through diplomacy but needs to hear, “we will never have a nuclear weapon” from their side. He also defended his immigration policy.

Ahead of some major earnings tonight, including Nvidia, Snowflake and Salesforce, equities are following up on yesterday’s gains. The S&P 500 opened up 0.4%, above both the 50d ma and the 6900 level. We’ve extended to further highs of the day, to the prior Friday’s close. Unlike yesterday though, gains are more concentrated. While the NYSE FANG+ index is up 2%, the equal-weight is flat and small/mid caps are lagging a bit. Growth is outperforming Value. Most sectors are flat-to-lower. 
Tech is leading with software continuing its bounce from yesterday (IGV +3%). Snowflake is up 5% ahead of earnings, Salesforce 3%. Tonight’s earnings will be heavily scrutinized. Nvidia is the key pillar in the AI buildout that has benefitted huge parts of the economy and driven equity market gains. Salesforce and Snowflake are showing the path of software's evolution in a rapidly changing AI world.

Workday’s earnings results seemed to be a new chapter in the AI dystopian thought-pieces as results disappointed early on and the stock was down ~10% initially. However it’s recouped all of those loses as it trades about 1% higher on the day. Speaking of AI, CoreWeave is looking to raise ~$9B to finance a buildout for Meta. That follows Meta’s deal with AMD announced yesterday. And aluminum giant Alcoa is looking to sell several industrial sites to data center operators/builders to capitalize on the buildout boom. Like Workday, HP also saw a solid reversal. An earnings beat on the top and bottom lines was buffeted by ramping margin pressure from chip and memory prices that will likely push full year results toward the lower end of guidance- another major market theme. The stock was down ~5% in the pre-market but is now up ~1%. Financials are also outperforming. Like in Tech, areas of sustained weakness such as asset management and consumer credit continued yesterday’s recovery.  

Energy is the laggard with oil stalling and the next round of negotiations with Iran tomorrow. Staples are also lower as alcoholic beverage names are under pressure following Diageo earnings that included a dividend cut. 
Treasury yields are slightly higher. The US Dollar Index has faded from modest gains earlier. It’s a light economic calendar with a few Fed speakers. 

  • US 2yr +1bps to 3.47%, 5yr +2bps to 3.61%, 10yr +0bps to 4.04%, 30yr -0bps to 4.68%
  • USD index: -$0.16 to $97.61
European equities were higher with the Euro STOXX 600, FTSE 100 and France’s CAC hitting record highs with a relatively light macro calendar. UK was a standout, with comments from BOE governor Bailey supporting potential rate cuts in March. Consumer Confidence in Germany slipped modestly while France was slightly higher. Bank earnings looked positive with Lion Financial up 10%, HSBC up ~8% and Banco Santander up 5%. Japan closed sharply higher overnight with the Nikkei adding over 2%. Rare earth policy is becoming a bigger issue as the country looks to cut dependence on China, much like the US. Dovish BOJ candidates have lowered expectations for rate hikes and put some pressure on the Yen. China’s markets were higher as well. Germany Chancellor Mertz and a group of 30 German companies are visiting China to discuss trade and economic relationships between the two countries. Australia’s headline CPI was a little hotter than expected but sub-readings were in line. 
Crude was up ~1% earlier today but pulled back following a big inventory build in the DOE data this morning. Yesterday’s post-market API data also showed a big 11.4M build. There have also been reports that OPEC is considering increases in production quotas in April. The next talks between the US and Iran are tomorrow. The commodity has pulled back from >$72 since Monday.  

Precious metals are higher, with gold up modestly, holding around $5200 while silver is up 4%, hitting $90 again after falling to $75 earlier this month. Copper is also higher. Ag is higher with wheat lagging. The European Commission has proposed to suspend, for one year, most favored nation (MFN) duties on imports of several key nitrogen fertilizers and inputs for their production. Crypto is extending earlier gains. Bitcoin was sub $65k but bounced off those levels and broke through its 8d ma ~$66.75k, making a beeline for $69k. Ether is up 10% and regained $2k. Circle is up ~30% on earnings and Coinbase is up >10%, following up on Circle’s gains (the two are partners in Circle’s stablecoin)
Earnings:

  • Pre-Market: AOMR, APG, AROC, ASPN, AVA, Bayer AG, BKV, BXSL, CLDT, CRCL, CTRI, Diageo, DIN, DOLE, FSS, HAYW, HIPO, HNI, HOV, HSBC, LAW, LOW, LXFR, MANU, MDLN, OC, PNW, PSKY, STWD, SWX, TBLA, TJX, TPH, TTD, UWMC, VLN, YOU
  • After-Market: A, AGL, AHT, AI, ALKT, CAPL, CBZ, CHE, CHMI, CPK, CRGY, CRM, CSV, CWT, DBRG, EE, EFC, EPR, FIHL, FSK, GMRE, GNL, GPRK, GRBK, HBB, HCI, IBTA, IMAX, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KGS, KNTK, LB, LXU, MEG, MIAX, NGVT, NOG, NPKI, NSA, NTNX, NU, NVDA, ORA, OUT, PEB, PR, PRSU, PSTG, RCUS, RDW, SARO, SDRL, SM, SMA, SNOW, TDOC, TKO, TTD, TTI, UHS, UMH, USPH, VAC, VICI, VTOL, WHD, WSR, WTRG, XPER, XZO, ZIP, ZM, ZVIA
  • Pre-Market (Thrs): Allianz, AMBP, AXA, BFLY, BIDU, BKSY, BLD, CARS, CCO, DCI, DCO, DQ, DSX, ECVT, EME, ENOV, FCN, FLOC, FOUR, GOLF, GTN, HGTY, HGV, HPP, HRL, HTZ, IBP, INSW, KBR, KOP, KRP, LNG, LOAR, LSEG, MCS, MRP, NCDL, NOMD, NREF, PEG, PENN, PRGO, PRKS, PRM, PRMB, PSBD, PZZA, Q, QBTS, SHAK, SJM, SRE, TDAY, TFX, TGLS, TWI, VIPS, VST, VYX, WD, WRBY, WWW
  • After-Market (Thrs): AAOI, ACA, ADSK, AES, AGO, AHR, ALTG, ARLO, AXIA, BCO, BCSF, BHR, BWMX, CABO, CLPR, CODI, COMP.EQ, CON, CPNG, CRWV, CTRA, CUBE, DELL, DUOL, DV, EBS, ESTC, EVTC, FIGS, FLUT, GLOB, GRND, GSBD, INTU, MAIN, MBI, MP, MSDL, MTZ, NATL, NEXA, NHI, NNI, NRDY, NTAP, PAR, RKT, RLJ, SG, SITC, SMR, SOLV, TPC, VTEX, WULF, XPOF, XYZ, ZS  

Economic Data:

US:

  • API Crude Inventories: 11.4M vs 1.85M cons, prior -0.609M
  • Mortgage applications: -4.7% vs prior -2.7%
  • Refis: 4.1% vs prior 7.1%
  • Fed Speakers: Barkin, Musalem
  • EIA Crude Inventories: 15.989M vs 1.8M cons, prior -9.014M
  • 1:00pm 5y Auction
  • 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
  • Japan PPI: 2.6% y.y vs 2.6% cons, prior 2.6%
  • Australia CPI m.m / y.y: 0.4% / 3.8% vs 0.3% / 3.7% cons, prior 1.0% / 3.8%
  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence: -24.7 vs -23.1 cons, prior -24.2
  • France Consumer Confidence: 91 vs 90 cons, prior 90
  • Europe Final CPI y.y: 1.7% vs 1.7% preliminary
  • Germany 15y auction
NYSE MAC Desk

Market Update

STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 2/25/2026 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning.
 
Hey look, it’s snowing again. Yesterday US equites rebounded from Monday’s hypothetical thought-experiment AI-Doom-triggered weakness (see Citrini Research post). The S&P and the equal-weight gained 0.8% while the Russell added over 1% in a broad rally. The IGV software ETF rebounded 2% after Monday’s 5% drop. Big Tech was mostly higher. AMD gained 9% after a new deal supplying AI chips to Meta could see the later eventually take a 10% stake in the former. Yields were flat to slightly higher. Helping matters was Anthropic’s event that was more about partnerships than total economic disruption, allowing beaten up areas to catch a breadth, at least for the moment. The Pentagon, however, is threatening to use its national security powers to assess the company’s technology.  
 
The POTUS SOTU last night feels like it just wrapped up and was basically a non-event for markets. Ahead of Nvidia, Snowflake and Salesforce earnings tonight, futures are trading higher and near best levels. With yesterday’s close right around the 50d ma, futures are pointing to the S&P opening above the level today, above 6900. Workday’s earnings disappointed and the stock is down ~10% in the pre-market, signaling that software is likely to remain under heavy scrutiny. In more AI news, CoreWeave is looking to raise ~$9B to finance a buildout for Meta. That follows Meta’s deal with AMD announced yesterday. And aluminum giant Alcoa is looking to sell several industrial sites to data center operators/builders to capitalize on the buildout boom.
 
 
 

 
Tonight’s earnings will be heavily scrutinized for insight into AI demand and the future prospects of software in this rapidly changing landscape. Before that though, HP’s earnings beat on the top and bottom lines but highlighted ramping margin pressure from chip and memory prices that will likely push full year results toward the lower end of guidance- another major market theme. The stock is down ~5% in the pre-market. Lowe’s is trading lower following its earnings, as the home retailer continues to highlight a difficult housing market.  
 
Treasury yields are ~2bp higher as equities firm up. The US Dollar Index is modestly higher as well. It’s a light economic calendar with a few Fed speakers
 
Government Yields
  • US 2yr +2bps to 3.47%, 5yr +2bps to 3.62%, 10yr +1bps to 4.05%, 30yr +2bps to 4.70%
  • USD index: +$0.07 to $97.84
European equities are trading higher, with the Euro STOXX 600, FTSE 100 and France’s CAC hitting record highs with a relatively light macro calendar. Consumer Confidence in Germany slipped modestly while France was slightly higher. Bank earnings looked positive with Lion Financial up 8%, HSBC up ~5% and Banco Santander up 4%. Japan closed sharply higher overnight with the Nikkei adding over 2%. Rare earth policy is becoming a bigger issue as the country looks to cut dependence on China, much like the US. Dovish BOJ candidates have lowered expectations for rate hikes and put some pressure on the Yen. China’s markets were higher as well. Germany Chancellor Mertz and a group of 30 German companies are visiting China to discuss trade and economic relationships between the two countries. Australia’s headline CPI was a little hotter than expected but sub-readings were in line.
 

 
Crude is up ~1% after yesterday’s decline saw it finish at the lows of the day as it moves around with the Iranian situation. The post-market API data showed a big 11.4M build. The DOE data is out later today and the next talks between the US and Iran are tomorrow. Precious metals are higher, with gold up modestly while silver is up 4%. Copper is also higher. Ag is flat to slightly lower. The European Commission has proposed to suspend, for one year, most favored nation (MFN) duties on imports of several key nitrogen fertilizers and inputs for their production. Crypto is higher as Bitcoin bounces off $65k and Ether tries to regain $2k. Circle is up sharply on earnings in the pre-market.
 

 
Earnings:
  • After-Market (Tues): AII, AMC, AXON, BXC, CAVA, CSGP, CWH, ECG, EOG, EVH, FSLR, FVR, GDDY, GIC, GMED, GPOR, HPQ, LCID, LTC, MATX MELI,, MOS, MTDR, O, PARR, PSTL, REZI, RRC, RVLV, SEI, SILA, SKT, SPXC, SUI, TALO, TREX, UIS, UVE, VLRS, VRE, WDAY, ZETA
  • Pre-Market: AOMR, APG, AROC, ASPN, AVA, Bayer AG, BKV, BXSL, CLDT, CRCL, CTRI, Diageo, DIN, DOLE, FSS, HAYW, HIPO, HNI, HOV, HSBC, LAW, LOW, LXFR, MANU, MDLN, OC, PNW, PSKY, STWD, SWX, TBLA, TJX, TPH, TTD, UWMC, VLN, YOU
  • After-Market: , AGL, AHT, AI, ALKT, CAPL, CBZ, CHE, CHMI, CPK, CRGY, CRM, CSV, CWT, DBRG, EE, EFC, EPR, FIHL, FSK, GMRE, GNL, GPRK, GRBK, HBB, HCI, IBTA, IMAX, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KGS, KNTK, LB, LXU, MEG, MIAX, NGVT, NOG, NPKI, NSA, NTNX, NU, NVDA, ORA, OUT, PEB, PR, PRSU, PSTG, RCUS, RDW, SARO, SDRL, SM, SMA, SNOW, TDOC, TKO, TTD, TTI, UHS, UMH, USPH, VAC, VICI, VTOL, WHD, WSR, WTRG, XPER, XZO, ZIP, ZM, ZVIA
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • API Crude Inventories: 11.4M vs 1.85M cons, prior -0.609M
  • Mortgage applications: -4.7% vs prior -2.7%
    • Refis: 4.1% vs prior 7.1%
  • Fed Speakers: Barkin, Musalem
  • 10:30am EIA Crude Inventories
  • 1:00pm 5y Auction
  • 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
 
Global:
  • Japan PPI: 2.6% y.y vs 2.6% cons, prior 2.6%
  • Australia CPI m.m / y.y: 0.4% / 3.8% vs 0.3% / 3.7% cons, prior 1.0% / 3.8%
  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence: -24.7 vs -23.1 cons, prior -24.2
  • France Consumer Confidence: 91 vs 90 cons, prior 90
  • Europe Final CPI y.y: 1.7% vs 1.7% preliminary
  • Germany 15y auction


By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates.  Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.

Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.

© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.  All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates.  For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.