STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 10/29/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 52,184 (-291), S&P 500 7,697 (-47), Russell 2000 2,856 (+25), NYSE FANG+ 18,084 (-444), ICE Brent Crude $114.78/barrel (-$0.54), Gold $4,019/oz (-$32), Bitcoin ~80.8k (-487)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Congratulations to the Milwaukee Brewers on winning their first World Series. Before taking the field, they were probably watching the Fed rate decision in the clubhouse to get fired up. As expected the committee held rates unchanged. You can read our recap here. The S&P 500 ended the day up 0.3%. 2y yields fell as chair Warsh spoke while the long-end rose. Around the time of the Fed news, ORCL updates from its investor day hit the tape, including guiding out to 2030 and expecting 2029 FCF of over $30B, much higher than expected. That sent the stock up sharply higher late in the session, taking a lot of tech along with it before major tech earnings reports after the close. Right around the close the WSJ reported that VP JD Vance had reached out to Iranian officials to restart peace talks, though President Trump has downplayed this saying it was focused on providing medical supplies.

It has been another wildly busy twenty-four hours of earnings which is clearly driving much of the activity. This morning’s economic data reinforced the picture painted by Fed Chair Warsh yesterday with GDP coming in ahead of estimates. PCE was inline but remained well above the Fed’s target. The initial reaction to the economic data was pretty muted with Treasuries catching a modest bid but yields accelerated to the downside along with oil prices after the open. This put a bid under equity markets with broad based gains outside of technology. The S&P 500 is down 0.6% as the NYSE 100 tech index is down ~2%, but keep in mind there has been a pretty significant bounce across the sector over the last couple of days. Meanwhile the equal weight and small/mid-cap indices were all up >1% but have been pulling back from the highs as some of the move in oil and yields have reversed.
The tech earnings are getting all the attention but there were over 100 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported since yesterday’s close.
 
  • Tech - Alphabet is down >10% as a miss in the Search business raises concerns on the negative impact of AI and agents on the business, overshadowing strong Cloud numbers. Microsoft initially traded higher after its results driven by strong growth at its cloud business, Azure, but has turned modestly lower since the open. Both companies noted a slowdown in capex spending, though some of this seems to be timing related, which comes on the back of the Oracle headlines yesterday. This does seem to be weighing on chips and memory stocks, Samsung earnings also disappointed overnight. Elsewhere within software ServiceNow is trading off >20% with disappointment around cRPO and margins though analyst commentary around AI monetization has skewed positive. Cybersecurity company, Fortinet, is also trading down >20% given very high expectations coming into the print and is taking the whole subgroup lower.  Marvell is trading down sharply after Bloomberg reported the company is considering buying optical networking company, Lumentum, for >$80B.
  • Healthcare (+2%) -  The lone trillion-dollar company in that sector, Eli Lilly (+6%) hit a new all-time high after putting up strong results driven by GLP-1 growth.  Some of the other positive earnings standouts include MRK, WST, GKOS, TDOC and BHC. Hospitals have been under some pressure after reporting. Yield oriented sectors REITs and Utilities are also outperforming with broad based strength.
  • Financials (+1.5%)- NYSE parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (+6%), reported earnings and announced a partnership with Trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid to bring regulated perpetual futures markets to the US. MasterCard (+4%) reported strong results and continued strong consumer and business spending trends. Alternative asset managers and companies with exposure to private credit are also trading well helped by the pullback in rates and yesterday’s Oracle news. There is broad based strength across banks and insurance companies.
  • Industrials (+1%)  defense and aerospace stocks are trading well after earnings from HII, TXT, LHX and HWM though HONA is down nearly 10%. Quanta Services (+>5%), which is exposed to the energy infrastructure had a beat and raise quarter. Caterpillar sold off after its results. The company also highlighted strong demand related to power generation and the data center buildout. The company did highlight a moderation in order growth and increasing costs.
  • Consumer discretionary - NCLH (+>10%) was the most recent cruise operator to have strong earnings. Chipotle is rallying after its earnings. There is broad-based strength in the sector though Amazon is trading off >3% ahead of its earnings after the close. 
Moving to this morning’s economic data.  PCE was on the screws with consensus. Headline rose 0.5% m.m while core was up 0.3%, which was unchanged from last month. The annual readings were also inline with expectations but did tick up from last month’s reading to 3.6% and 3.1%, respectively. Advanced Q3 GDP accelerated from Q2 and beat estimates (3.4% vs 3.2%). Yesterday Warsh noted that economic growth was strong and getting better, so this falls right inline with that. Consumer spending continues to hold up, if not shine, rising 3.8%. Claims ticked slightly lower from last week. Yields are off the morning lows down 1-3bps across the curve.  
  • US 2yr -4bps to 4.67%, 5yr -4bps to 4.81%, 10yr -3bps to 4.99%, 30yr -2bps to 5.33%
  • USD index: -$0.19 to $101.85
Commodities are broadly lower. Crude is only slightly lower after bouncing this afternoon. Natural gas remains under pressure as do the precious metals. Peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are tentatively scheduled for November 10. Ag is mixed.  Crypto sold off during Asian trading hours but rallied after the US open. Bitcoin keeps testing its 50d ma just under 82k but has been unable to sustain the rally.  The HYPE token is up >10%. 
Major European indices closed up ~1%. EU sentiment missed and fell from last month.  The ECB left rates unchanged as expected highlighting a tightening of financing conditions since the last meeting. ECB President Lagarde will step down in February, six months earlier than the end of her term, though this was not surprising. Chinese tech stock got hit overnight, like the pitching staffs of the Brewers playoff opponents. Tencent and Alibaba fell 3%. Multiple Chinese banks are hitting 52week highs, however. The Hang Seng saw a steep decline into the close, finishing down 0.6. The Nikkei gained 1% with banks and metals/mining leading. Advantest (+6%) reported solid earnings on the back of demand for its chip testing equipment. The other chip majors- Kioxia, Tokyo Electron- were also higher. The BOJ will hold its rate meeting tonight, with a hold largely expected. South Korea fell as Samsung dropped 4% after reporting. 
The focus tomorrow will be on earnings again. Some of the highlights include Amazon, Intel, Starbucks, Abbvie, Astrazeneca and the oil majors Chevron and Exxon.

Earnings:
After-Market: AJG, AMZN, ATR, AX, BFAM, CDP, COIN, COLM, CUBE, CUZ, DLR, DXC, DXCM, EIX, EMN, ERIE, EXPO, FDXF, FMC, FND, FSLR, GDDY, GILD, GLPI, ILMN, INTC, IR, MDLZ, MHK, MMSI, MPWR, MTX, MTZ, OLN, PEB, PMT, RDDT, RMD, RSG, RYAN, SBUX, SKYW, SNDK, SNDR, SPSC, SPXC, SYK, TWLO, VLTO, WY
Pre-Market: ABBV, AN, AZN, BP, CBOE, CHD, CL, CPRI, CVX, D, EXC, FRT, GD, GTES, KRG, LEA, LYB, NVT, NWL, PIPR, REGN, SNY, VRTS, WT, XOM

Economic Data:
US:
  • PCE m.m / y.y: 0.5% / 3.6% vs 0.5% / 3.6% cons, prior 0.3% / 3.4%
  • Core: 0.3% / 3.1% vs 0.3% / 3.1% cons, prior 0.3% / 3.0%
  • GDP Q3: 3.4% vs 3.2% cons, prior 2.2%
  • Personal Income / Spending m.m: 0.2% / 0.5% vs 0.3% / 0.6% cons, prior 0.3% / 0.9%
  • Jobless Claims: 194k vs 199k cons, prior 195k
  • Continuing Claims: 1701k vs 1720k cons, prior 1722k

Global:
  • Australia Export / Import prices q.q: 1.4% / -1.1% vs prior 1.1% / 5.7%
  • Europe Economic Sentiment: 96.9 vs 97.5 cons, prior 97.5

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