STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking & Eric Criscuolo
Published on 11/09/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
After selling off sharply on Thursday US markets ended slightly higher on Friday. Tech led after getting throttled but there wasn’t much conviction behind the activity. Friday’s jobs report came in well ahead of expectations along with positive revisions to the previous two months. There was a minimal reaction within the rates market with 2-10yr yields ending the week down nearly 10bps driven by a mix of a flight to safety, following oil prices lower and as markets pondered the inflation outlook should AI investment slow.
There is some upside follow through this morning with US futures trading near overnight highs up ~1%. Oil prices have are under pressure again trading just above last week’s lows. President Trump said renewed strikes are highly unlikely if talks on nuclear and the Strait progress. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but there have been mixed assessments as to where they stand. Over the last hour there have been reports that Qatar will host VP Vance and Iran’s General Rezaei next week. ICE Brent is near the lows down ~5% trading around $93.50.
The big story coming out of the weekend has been the Jensen Huang affair with a suspected Chinese spy and CEO of Megaspeed. The Board is doing an independent review and Congressional reviews are likely. Nvidia (-5%) is such an integral piece within the AI complex both from a technology and financing perspective which heightens the importance of the situation. Outside of the Nvidia weakness the AI complex is extending Friday’s bounce. Anthropic is expected to begin its roadshow this week. Most chip, memory, and infrastructure stocks are up 1% - 3% in the pre-market though neoclouds remain under pressure. Coreweave (Tues aft) and Nebius (Thurs) both report earnings later this week. This morning Constellation Energy and NRG Energy are both trading higher after strong earnings. Berkshire is trading around unchanged after reporting over the weekend. Weakness in the insurance business was offset by rail, industrial and energy segments.
There is a little bit of a flattening of the yield curve. After the open the NY Fed will release its Survey of Consumer Expectations and there are a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar. However, tomorrow’s CPI report is the big piece of data this week. The USD is down ~0.4% giving back some of Friday’s post jobs report rally.
Major European equities are trading up around 1%, extending to their highs as we approach the open. Basic resources are leading with metals higher, and banks and tech are also among the leaders. Consumer goods and Energy are lagging. German exports rose 2% and beat expectations. Finance ministers began discussing the race to succeed ECB President Lagarde, who is leaving her position in February. It’s a short ballot with only former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos (GM of the BIS) on the list. Japan bounced 2% after the Nikkei got slammed for 6% on Friday. Gains were broadly distributed though pockets of tech remained under pressure (Softbank -4%, after a 10% decline on Friday, Kioxia -2%, down 9% on Friday). Mitsui Chemicals is buying semiconductor materials maker JSR Corp for ¥1.84T ($12B). South Korea’s Kospi saw a similar decline as Japan on Friday but not the bounce today. Equities tried to rally but faded in the second half of trading to close near their lows. Korean media reported Samsung was looking into potential leaks of confidential chipmaking processes to Lam Research Korea. Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 5%, cutting into much of Friday’s decline. Chinese equities were mixed, with Hang Seng down slightly and Shanghai higher. Chinese CPI was flat month-over-month and cooled, while PPI was hotter than expected. Bloomberg reported that China will suspend some measures including a retaliatory 24% tariff on US goods for another two months, while the USTR will suspend actions on China's shipbuilding and maritime sector.
We discussed oil above. US nat gas prices are up nearly 5% extending the recent bounce though prices in Europe remain under pressure. The metals complex has reversed the overnight weakness as the USD has pulled back with prices up >1%. Ag is mixed. Crypto was under pressure over the weekend. Bitcoin tested its 200d just over 73k and has bounced modestly. However, Ethereum broke below its 200d ma currently trading down ~5%.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CEG, CNH, FERG, KKR, NRG, SGI
Economic Data:
US:
After selling off sharply on Thursday US markets ended slightly higher on Friday. Tech led after getting throttled but there wasn’t much conviction behind the activity. Friday’s jobs report came in well ahead of expectations along with positive revisions to the previous two months. There was a minimal reaction within the rates market with 2-10yr yields ending the week down nearly 10bps driven by a mix of a flight to safety, following oil prices lower and as markets pondered the inflation outlook should AI investment slow.
There is some upside follow through this morning with US futures trading near overnight highs up ~1%. Oil prices have are under pressure again trading just above last week’s lows. President Trump said renewed strikes are highly unlikely if talks on nuclear and the Strait progress. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but there have been mixed assessments as to where they stand. Over the last hour there have been reports that Qatar will host VP Vance and Iran’s General Rezaei next week. ICE Brent is near the lows down ~5% trading around $93.50.
The big story coming out of the weekend has been the Jensen Huang affair with a suspected Chinese spy and CEO of Megaspeed. The Board is doing an independent review and Congressional reviews are likely. Nvidia (-5%) is such an integral piece within the AI complex both from a technology and financing perspective which heightens the importance of the situation. Outside of the Nvidia weakness the AI complex is extending Friday’s bounce. Anthropic is expected to begin its roadshow this week. Most chip, memory, and infrastructure stocks are up 1% - 3% in the pre-market though neoclouds remain under pressure. Coreweave (Tues aft) and Nebius (Thurs) both report earnings later this week. This morning Constellation Energy and NRG Energy are both trading higher after strong earnings. Berkshire is trading around unchanged after reporting over the weekend. Weakness in the insurance business was offset by rail, industrial and energy segments.
There is a little bit of a flattening of the yield curve. After the open the NY Fed will release its Survey of Consumer Expectations and there are a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar. However, tomorrow’s CPI report is the big piece of data this week. The USD is down ~0.4% giving back some of Friday’s post jobs report rally.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.54%, 5yr -1bps to 4.65%, 10yr -2bps to 4.84%, 30yr -3bps to 5.24%
- USD index: -$0.46 to $101.72
Major European equities are trading up around 1%, extending to their highs as we approach the open. Basic resources are leading with metals higher, and banks and tech are also among the leaders. Consumer goods and Energy are lagging. German exports rose 2% and beat expectations. Finance ministers began discussing the race to succeed ECB President Lagarde, who is leaving her position in February. It’s a short ballot with only former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos (GM of the BIS) on the list. Japan bounced 2% after the Nikkei got slammed for 6% on Friday. Gains were broadly distributed though pockets of tech remained under pressure (Softbank -4%, after a 10% decline on Friday, Kioxia -2%, down 9% on Friday). Mitsui Chemicals is buying semiconductor materials maker JSR Corp for ¥1.84T ($12B). South Korea’s Kospi saw a similar decline as Japan on Friday but not the bounce today. Equities tried to rally but faded in the second half of trading to close near their lows. Korean media reported Samsung was looking into potential leaks of confidential chipmaking processes to Lam Research Korea. Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 5%, cutting into much of Friday’s decline. Chinese equities were mixed, with Hang Seng down slightly and Shanghai higher. Chinese CPI was flat month-over-month and cooled, while PPI was hotter than expected. Bloomberg reported that China will suspend some measures including a retaliatory 24% tariff on US goods for another two months, while the USTR will suspend actions on China's shipbuilding and maritime sector.
We discussed oil above. US nat gas prices are up nearly 5% extending the recent bounce though prices in Europe remain under pressure. The metals complex has reversed the overnight weakness as the USD has pulled back with prices up >1%. Ag is mixed. Crypto was under pressure over the weekend. Bitcoin tested its 200d just over 73k and has bounced modestly. However, Ethereum broke below its 200d ma currently trading down ~5%.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CEG, CNH, FERG, KKR, NRG, SGI
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
- 10:00 Fed Goolsbee
- 11:00 NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
- 12:15 Fed Barkin
- China CPI: 0%0.7% vs. 0%/0.8% cons., prior 0.2%/0.9%
- China PPI: 5.7% vs. 5.3% cons,. prior 5%
- Germany Import/Export: 4.2%/2% vs. 0.5%/0.5% cons., prior -0.4%/0.6%
- Average Weekly Hours: vs. 34.4 cons., prior 34.4
- Average Hourly Earnings: vs. 0.3%/2.9% cons., prior 0.1%/3%
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