NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update

Good morning,
 
Yesterday US markets came under pressure after the open in what looked like a momentum shakeout before recouping some of those losses into the close. The fact that today is options expiration likely added to that volatility. Coming into today’s session the S&P 500 is unchanged for the week while small/mid-cap indices are lower by just over 0.5%. It has been a reasonably quiet overnight session with global flash PMIs getting some attention. Markets in Asia were mixed with China continuing its recent outperformance with the Hong Kong Hang Seng up 4% after yesterday’s Alibaba earnings. Flash PMIs in Europe were mixed with some modest improvement in manufacturing, which remains in contraction, and moderation in services while prices components move higher. Ahead of elections in Germany this weekend European indices are slightly higher. For the moment it looks like that momentum shakeout was short-lived. US futures are mixed with S&P futures a touch higher helped by mega-cap tech strength in the pre-market. Russell 2k futures are up ~0.75%, reversing the WTD losses. However, Dow futures are off 0.5% on the back of the reported UnitedHealth (->10%) DOJ billing investigation which is also weighing on other insurers.
 
In the US flash PMIs will be released after the open followed by existing home sales and final U of Mich sentiment, let’s see if there are revisions to the big jump in inflation expectations. Treasury yields are slightly lower with the 10yr continuing to hover around 4.5%. The USD index is recouping some of yesterday’s decline currently up 0.25% to $106.5. The Yen is reversing about half of yesterday’s rally after some dovish central bank commentary. The Euro and yields in Europe are also reversing yesterday’s moves with yields down >5bps.
 
Commodities markets are mixed. ICE Brent is down ~1% trading back under $76 but nat gas is up 3% recouping some of yesterday’s pullback. Metals are modestly lower. Ag commodities are moving higher. Ag is mostly higher. Bitcoin is up ~1% at ~99k breaking above its 50d ma. There are reports that the SEC will drop its lawsuit against Coinbase.
 
After-Market: AKAM, ALRM, AMH, BJRI, BKNG, CARG, COKE, CPRT, DBX, ED, FND, FNF, GH, GKOS, GLPI, GMED, GRAL, HPP, LNT, LYV, MATV, MELI, MP, NEM, OLED, PODD, REAL, REZI, RIVN, RYAN, SEM, SFM, TXRH, VICI, VICR, XYZ
Pre-Market: BCC, SHO, TDS, UNIT
 
Global Markets
Asia:
Japan's Nikkei: +0.3% (-1.0% for the week)
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +4.0% (+3.8% for the week)
China's Shanghai Composite: +0.9% (+1.0% for the week)
India's Sensex: -0.6% (-0.8% for the week)
South Korea's Kospi: UNCH (+2.5% for the week)
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4% (-2.9% for the week)
 
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: +0.5% (+0.2% week-to-date)
Germany's DAX: +0.1% (-0.7% week-to-date)
U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1% (-0.7% week-to-date)
France's CAC 40: +0.5% (-0.2% week-to-date)
Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.4% (+1.1% week-to-date)
Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (-0.1% week-to-date)
 
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields

• US 2yr -1bps to 4.27%, 5yr -1bps to 4.34%, 10yr -2bps to 4.49%, 30yr -3bps to 4.72%
• USD index: +$0.25 to $106.52
• Oil prices - ICE Brent: -1.3% to $75.47, WTI: -1.5% to $71.40, Nat Gas: +2.8% to $4.27
• Gold: -0.3% to $2,947.60, Silver: -0.3% to $33.39, Copper: -0.9% to $4.57
• Wheat: +0.9% to $6.13, Corn: +3.0% to $5.13, Soybeans: +1.6% to $10.63, Cotton: -0.0% to $0.67
• VIX: -0.35 to 15.31
• Bitcoin: +1.1% to ~99.2k

Central Banks:

• Governor Ueda suggests that the central bank could purchase bonds if yields begin to move abnormally but seems content with current price action - Reuters
• Musk says DOGE will audit the Federal Reserve but didn’t provide much detail - WSJ

Washington:

• Axios suggests that a revised minerals proposal is now being considered by Ukraine  

Economic Data:

• US:
  • 9:45 S&P Global PMI
  • 10:00 Existing Home Sales
  • 10:00 U of Mich Sentiment (final)
• Global
  • Japan Core-Inflation: 3.2% vs. 3.1% cons,. prior 3%
  • Japan Composite PMI: 51.6 vs. 51.5 cons., prior 51.1
    • Japan Manufacturing PMI: vs. 48.9 vs. 49 cons., prior 48.7
    • Japan Services: 53.1 prior 53
  • India Composite PMI: 60.6 vs. 58.2 cons., prior 57.7
  • India Manufacturing PMI:  57.1 vs. 57.9 cons., prior 57.7
  • India Services: 61.1 vs.  57.5 cons., prior 56.5
  • EU Manufacturing PMI:  47.3 vs. 47 cons., prior 46.6
  • EU Services: 50.7 vs.  51.5 cons., prior 51.3
  • UK Manufacturing PMI:  46.4 vs. 48.4 cons., prior 48.3
  • UK Services: 51.1 vs.  50.8 cons., prior 50.8
  • EU Composite PMI: 50.2 vs. 50.5 cons., prior 50.2
  • UK Composite PMI: 50.5 vs. 50.5 cons., prior 50.6