STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/2/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 53,005 (+238), S&P 500 7,669 (+38), Russell 2000 2,955 (+35), NYSE FANG+ 18,561 (+3), ICE Brent Crude $95.75/barrel (+$1.10), Gold $4,418/oz (+$21), Bitcoin ~77.4k (+243)
MAC Desk Commentary:
The worst month for stocks started according to plan yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, equal-weight -0.8% and Russell 2000 -1.2%. The re-emergence of Middle East hostilities over the weekend continued into Tuesday after Iran struck two tankers and the US responded with strikes on IRGC targets later in the day. Oil rose 5%, treasuries rose 3-5bp and gold, silver and bitcoin fell 2-4%. Energy led as expected with oil’s strength, while the defensively-oriented Utilities, Healthcare and Staples also saw gains. Discretionary lagged, and Industrials, Materials and Tech sectors also fell 1%-plus. Economic data including ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS didn’t lean too meaningfully to either the Bull or Bear side.

As my kids woke up this morning to 1) get ready for their first day of school (including a new middle-schooler) and 2) celebrate a birthday, US equity futures were lower, along with the rest of the globe. The US attacked two Iranian tankers as part of the larger strikes yesterday, marking a new “tanker for tanker” policy that would ratchet up the US blockade currently in effect. Losses were modest however and futures bounced off their lows to turn positive as Treasury yields moved lower. The S&P 500 opened flat but marched higher throughout the morning. We're sitting just below the HOD, up around +0.5%, trying to fill yesterday's gap down. Breadth is solid with the equal-weight outperforming and small caps leading. Every sector is higher outside of Real Estate.
DELL (+13%) was the big earnings print last night, and the company blew away estimates and raised guidance. The AI business was a standout as expected but even traditional products showed strong growth (PCs +22% y.y). GTLB is another big gainer, up +10%, but that gain is half of what it was at today's high. Other software reporters aren't faring as well despite results largely beating expectations: MDB and PANW -10%, CRDO -20%, CXM -3%. SNOW is down 4% ahead of its earnings tonight. The IGV software ETF has erased all of its post-CRM earnings gain last week. AVGO, SNOW and HPE are among the next group of tech (and other) stocks to report tonight.

Materials is the leading sector today with the entire sector higher. Steel (NUE, STLD +4) and ag (MOS, CTVA, CF +2-4%) groups are trading well  Comm Services is right behind. GOOG and META are up 1-2% but cable and media are also trading well (CHTR +7%, FOX +3%, DIS 2%). Financials, Healthcare and Staples are also outperforming. For financials, most of the sector is higher but exchanges and service/data providers are lower. Healthcare and Staples are seeing broad gains. Real Estate is the laggard today and the only sector clearly in the red as most of the sector trades lower (Healthcare properties outperforming).
Treasury yields are down 1-2bp across the curve. The US Dollar Index erased earlier gains and the yen saw one particularly sharp spike higher ahead of the open, prompting discussion of another FX intervention. The 30y has pulled back from its earlier highs ~5.3%.

  • US 2yr -2bps to 4.39%, 5yr -1bps to 4.55%, 10yr -1bps to 4.80%, 30yr -1bps to 5.27%
  • USD index: -$0.10 to $99.54
The ADP monthly employment report showed 38K private jobs were added in August, below the 47K estimate and down from July’s 44K. It was the slowest pace since January and continues the cooling trend in the labor market. The smallest (<20 employees) and largest (500+) firms added 20K and 34K jobs, respectively. Declines were concentrated in the second smallest cohort (20-49 employees), which fell 17K. Education and Health Services and Leisure/Hospitality added 45K and 16K, and Construction added 12K. Manufacturing declined 17K. The monthly nonfarm payrolls report is Friday. NY Fed President Williams spoke this morning, noting that yields don’t seem to be driven by the inflation outlook and we’re seeing a trend toward lower inflation. 

The Fed Beige Book didn't elicit too much of a market response. The reported noted "Economic activity increased modestly since early July" and 10/12 Federal Reserve Districts reported slight to moderate growth, while the other 2 reported no change. The S&P moved slightly higher.  

In speaking to reporters this afternoon, President Trump said he is prepared to launch another strike on Iran if needed and said, again, that he doesn't think the conflict will last too much longer. He also noted that Canada is tougher to deal with than China or Vietnam. You don't say...  

Oil has moved around. It reached an overnight high ~$97 and testing its May highs before reversing for most of the morning. Around 10am it began to climb again as Russian officials said that talk of OPEC+ quota cuts were not happening now and oil demand is recovering. The OPEC+ meeting this Sunday will note make any output decisions and only discuss market conditions. Chevron signed an agreement to expand its operations in Venezuela. Natural gas is higher as well.

Gold is modestly higher, reclaiming the 100d ma/$4400 level. Copper is unchanged, looking to hold its 50d after a run to record highs. Crypto continues to consolidate late August’s sharp rally. Ag is mostly lower.
In Japan the Nikkei fell ~3% as JGB yields continued to climb, posing a growing problem for the Takaichi administration’s fiscal expansion plans. A BOJ hike at the September meeting is now 90% priced in. BOJ board members Takata and Ueda gave hawkish comments and a readout from Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with Ueda on Sunday noted he “expressed strong support for Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to address the substantial undervaluation of the yen”.

China was lower overnight with the Hang Seng just in the red and Shanghai down 1%. Tech underperformed. The gap between the US and China 10y reached a record high as China remains the outlier in the global yield backup. The US and China are considering cuts to “non-sensitive” products ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this month, according to reports. South Korea was an underperformer as the KOSPI fell 4%. Australian GDP was better than expected, which could advance calls for another rate hike. European equities ended modestly lower. Banks and Healthcare led while retail/consumer and Utilities lagged. Italian PPI came in hotter than expected, while Spain’s unemployment was more than expected. Wolters Kluwer and Volkswagen are lower on news they will be removed from the STOXX 50 index while Nokia and Engie will be added, as of Sept. 21. 
Earnings:
  • After-Market: AGX, AVGO, AI, CHPT, FIVE, GOLD, HPE, NTAP, NTSK, PHR, PVH, SNOW, TLYS, WOOF
  • Pre-Market (Thrs): BRC, CIEN, CPB, DLTH, GCO, LE, MOMO, PSNY, TTC, VSXY, WLY
  • After-Market (Thrs): AMBA, ASAN, CURV, DOCU, DOMO, GWRE, IOT, LULU, NX, OXM, PATH, PL, SWBI, ZS
Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP Monthly Employment: 38K vs 47K cons, prior 44K
  • API crude inventories: -2.6M vs -0.8M cons, prior +4.2M
  • Mortgage applications: 2.2% vs prior -0.3%
  • 30y rate: 6.79% vs 6.78% prior
  • Refis: -1.1% vs prior -2.0%
  • Factory Orders m.m: 0.9% vs 0.6% cons, prior -0.2%
  • EIA crude inventories: -4.45M vs -1.1M cons, prior 0.095M
  • 2:00pm Beige Book

Global:
  • Korea CPI m.m: 0.2% vs 0.3% cons, prior -0.2%
  • Australia GDP y.y: 2.1% vs 1.8% cons, prior 2.5%
  • New Zealand rate decision: Hike as expected
  • Canada rate decision: Held as expected
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/2/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning and Happy Birthday Nolan and First Day of Middle School Devon!
 
The worst month for stocks started according to plan yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, equal-weight -0.8% and Russell 2000 -1.2%. The re-emergence of Middle East hostilities over the weekend continued into Tuesday after Iran struck two tankers and the US responded with strikes on IRGC targets later in the day. Oil rose 5%, treasuries rose 3-5bp and gold, silver and bitcoin fell 2-4%. Energy led as expected with oil’s strength, while the defensively-oriented Utilities, Healthcare and Staples also saw gains. Discretionary lagged, and Industrials, Materials and Tech sectors also fell 1%-plus. Economic data including ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS didn’t lean too meaningfully to either the Bull or Bear side.
 
US equity futures were lower this morning along with rest of the globe. Losses were modest however and futures bounced off their lows to turn positive as Treasury yields turned lower. The US attacked two Iranian tankers as part of the larger strikes yesterday, marking a new “tanker for tanker” policy that would ratchet up the US blockade currently in effect. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are leading an AI contingent to pitch the G20 members today.
 

 
DELL (+9%) was the big earnings print last night, and the company blew away estimates and raised guidance. The AI business was a standout as expected but even traditional products showed strong growth (PCs +22% y.y). GTLB (+25%) is up sharply too, but other tech names are mixed, though results largely beat expectations. MDB and CRDO are selling off (down ~10%), CXM dropped 5% and PANW is down 2%.  
 
Treasury yields are down ~2bp and the US Dollar Index is adding to yesterday’s gains, nearing 100 again. The 30y has pulled back from its earlier highs ~5.3%. The ADP monthly employment report showed 38K private jobs were added in August, below the 47K estimate and down from July’s 44K. It was the slowest pace since January and continues the cooling trend in the labor market. The smallest (<20 employees) and largest (500+) firms added 20K and 34K jobs, respectively. Declines were concentrated in the second smallest cohort (20-49 employees), which fell 17K. Education and Health Services and Leisure/Hospitality added 45K and 16K, and Construction added 12K. Manufacturing declined 17K. The monthly nonfarm payrolls report is Friday. Factory Orders and Beige Book are later today.  NY Fed President Williams spoke this morning, noting that yields don’t seem to be driven by the inflation outlook and we’re seeing a trend toward lower inflation.
 
  • US 2yr -2bps to 4.38%, 5yr -1bps to 4.55%, 10yr -1bps to 4.79%, 30yr -1bps to 5.27%
  • USD index: +$0.07 to $99.71
In Japan the Nikkei fell ~3% as JGB yields continued to climb, posing a growing problem for the Takaichi administration’s fiscal expansion plans. A BOJ hike at the September meeting is now 90% priced in. BOJ board members Takata and Ueda gave hawkish comments and a readout from Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with Ueda on Sunday noted he “expressed strong support for Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to address the substantial undervaluation of the yen”.  China was lower overnight with the Hang Seng just in the red and Shanghai down 1%. Tech underperformed. The gap between the US and China 10y reached a record high as China remains the outlier in the global yield backup. The US and China are considering cuts to “non-sensitive” products ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this month, according to reports. South Korea was an underperformer as the KOSPI fell 4%. Australian GDP was better than expected, which could advance calls for another rate hike. European equities are lower but the major indexes are only modestly lower. Banks and Healthcare are leading. Italian PPI came in hotter than expected, while Spain’s unemployment was more than expected. Wolters Kluwer and Volkswagen are lower on news they will be removed from the STOXX 50 index while Nokia and Engie will be added, as of Sept. 21.  
 

 
Commodities are rather subdued. Oil is slightly lower and well off its overnight high ~$97 as the November contract pulled back from a test of its May highs. Chevron signed an agreement to expand its operations in Venezuela. Gold is lower, continuing its downtrend and falling below its 100d ma/$4400. Copper is unchanged, looking to hold its 50d after a run to record highs. Crypto continues to consolidate late August’s sharp rally.  
 

  
Earnings
After-Market: CRDO, DELL, GTLB, MDB, PANW, SPWH
Pre-Market: BF.B, CXM, FCEL, GIII, OLLI
After-Market: AGX, AVGO, AI, CHPT, FIVE, GOLD, HPE, NTAP, NTSK, PHR, PVH, SNOW, TLYS, WOOF
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP Monthly Employment: 38K vs 47K cons, prior 44K
  • API crude inventories: -2.6M vs -0.8M cons, prior +4.2M
  • Mortgage applications: 2.2% vs prior -0.3%
    • 30y rate: 6.79% vs 6.78% prior
    • Refis: -1.1% vs prior -2.0%
  • 10:00 am Factory Orders
  • 10:30am EIA crude inventories
  • 2:00pm Beige Book
Global:
  • Korea CPI m.m: 0.2% vs 0.3% cons, prior -0.2%
  • Australia GDP y.y: 2.1% vs 1.8% cons, prior 2.5%
  • New Zealand rate decision: Hike as expected
  • 9:45am Canada rate decision

By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates.  Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.

Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.

© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.  All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates.  For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.