STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/5/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 54,588 (+502), S&P 500 7,742 (+5), Russell 2000 3,029 (-8), NYSE FANG+ 18,472 (-60), ICE Brent Crude $78.90/barrel (-$0.46), Gold $4,310/oz (+$157), Bitcoin ~64.7k (+511)
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MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday was a beautiful summer’s day: blue skies, sunshine and new all-time highs. Amidst growing optimism for a diplomatic resolution in Iran and strong earnings the S&P 500 opened up ~0.4% just above the previous all-time high hit in June and didn’t look back, ending the session up nearly 2%. Tech did much of the heavy lifting with the NYSE 100 up ~3.5% but the gains were broad based. Once again energy and defensive/yield-oriented sectors underperformed. Oil prices fell >5% with ICE Brent breaking below $80 which helped Treasury yields pull back from the recent highs. Putting the earnings strength in perspective with about 70% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported Q2 500 EPS growth is up ~50% y/y. This does include ~$150B of investment gains at Amazon/Google excluding that, growth is still up ~30%.

Futures extended to the upside ahead of the open as earnings continued to pour in. The Iran deal hopes haven’t faded despite a Saudi tanker being attacked in the Red Sea. The S&P 500 gapped up about 0.5% at the open trading just under 7,800 before markets started to fade as there is some profit taking which is not all that surprising given the index was up about 500pts over the last five trading sessions. Most major indices are modestly lower with the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with Nvidia (+3%) and Amgen (+4% earnings) two of the standouts. 
There was some impactful economic data today. This morning the ADP employment survey came in below estimates at 44k. A decline in natural resource and mining jobs (-6k) offset paltry gains in construction/manufacturing. Within services, education/healthcare services accounted for the bulk of the job gains (36k) while leisure and hospitality and the trade, trans, and utilities categories both fell. Pay for job stayers held steady at 4.4% but increased 0.2% to 7% for job changers, the highest level since last August.

Ahead of the open the Treasury also released its Quarterly Refunding Statement with no real surprises. Issuance will be $125B with no change to the make-up of that issuance and said, “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.”

After the open the final S&P Global Services PMI was revised up to 54.6 from 53.6. However,  ISM Services came in below estimates, holding steady from last month. The underlying metrics were mixed with both new orders and business activity improving though backlogs fell. The employment component fell back below 50, the demarcation line of growth, after moving above that threshold in June for the first time since February. Pricing pressures remained evident moving back above 70. Treasury yields were modestly higher this morning but have pulled back to around unchanged since noon.

  • US 2yr -1bps to 4.19%, 5yr +0bps to 4.33%, 10yr -0bps to 4.62%, 30yr -1bps to 5.17%
  • USD index: -$0.21 to $99.5
Within the S&P 500 5 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Earnings/news headlines in a couple of large cap companies are impacting some of that movement. After moving sharply higher over the last week tech is still outperforming but today the gains are primarily coming from Nvidia and Micron which are both up ~3%. The companies that reported earnings overnight are struggling given the high expectations. Arista Networks is an upside standout though it has given up about half of the initial gains.  AMD is down >5% despite strong numbers, it is hard to argue with revenue growth up 50% y/y and double that for its data center business. Also weighing on sentiment were comments from Elon Musk that SpaceX would build infrastructure exclusively with Nvidia hardware. SpaceX is down ~10% giving up yesterday’s gains after its first earnings report as a public company. Earnings and revenue both came in ahead of expectations, but markets are focused on the heavy Capex spending and the looming shareholder unlocks. Optical stocks are holding on to most of yesterday’s gains.

Communication Services is the worst performing sector down ~2.5%. Telecom stocks are under pressure after SpaceX said it will be going after their market share. This is also weighing on the tower stocks within REITs. Alphabet moved sharply lower during the session after the most recent AI executive departure.  Disney is pretty much the lone upside standout up ~2% after beating EPS estimates and reaffirming guidance.

Healthcare is one of the best performing sectors currently up ~1% with mixed earnings across the sector. Eli Lilly, the sole $1T healthcare company, is up >3% after strong top and bottom-line beats. Amgen (+5%) Charles River (+>10%) are two positive earnings standouts with the latter helping life science and tools stocks. AstraZeneca is recouping some of this week’s losses amidst reports that there are no merger discussions. Equipment and services are under pressure a couple of earnings disappointments (PODD, DVA, CVS).

The materials sector is the best performing with miners driving the upside as the metals complex rallies. On the flipside, energy continues to be under pressure given the commodity weakness. 
Markets in Asia rallied overnight following in the US markets footsteps. Tech heavy indices led to the upside. South Korea and the Nikkei were both up >3% while Taiwan was up >2%. In Japan final services PMI was revised a touch lower. Tech stocks led to the upside with Softbank up 14% following earnings. Financials moved higher while retail underperformed. The Yen has held most of the intervention rally while  JGB yields were down a couple bps overnight. In China economic data continues to disappoint, services PMI missed estimates. China’s Commerce Ministry retaliated after the recent trade actions taken by Washington (robots/optical). Export restrictions will be placed on drone components and related technologies which will require a case-by-case review. It is initiating a security review of imports of printing, copying, and office equipment. It also sanctioned Compliance Testing for its role in the recent FCC decision and announced sanctions against six additional companies. Overnight the Hang Seng ended slightly higher while the Shanghai Comp was up ~1.5%.

In Europe after opening higher most major indices closed on either side of unchanged. Services PMIs across the region were revised a touch higher. Earnings continue to be busy in Europe as well. Infineon was down ~5% after its results failed to meet high expectations. Novo Nordisk was down >5% on disappointing Wegovy sales (results were out after European close yesterday so ADRs got hit during US trading +1% today). Siemens closed around unchanged despite strong results. 
Oil prices are down ~1% back near overnight lows with the Iran deal still in limbo. API and DOE inventories both showed a surprise increase in crude though there were product draws. US nat gas prices retested recent lows before bouncing back to unchanged levels while prices in Europe continue to be under pressure. The metals complex is well bid with the USD weakness and rate hike expectations moderating. Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve highlighted the positive divergence between gold price/RSI today prices there was finally a release with gold up nearly 4% breaking above its 50d ma and hitting the highest levels since early June. Silver is up a similar amount platinum/palladium which rally sharply yesterday are holding on to the bulk of those gains. Copper is pushing to fresh highs. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving modestly higher but the Clarity Act continues to dampen the enthusiasm. 
Looking ahead the quantity of earnings will continue to be difficult to keep up with but the size of the companies and impact on the broader tape will start to decline for the next couple of weeks until retail and late cycle tech earnings. Tomorrow's economic data includes claims, productivity and inventories ahead of Friday's employment report.

Earnings:
After-Market: ACA, AGBK, AGL, AKA, ALB, ALL, APLE, ATEN, ATO, AWR, AXIA, BBDC, BGSF, BHR, BKH, BROS, CACI, CAPL, CDE, CDRE, CF, CMP, COOK, CPA, CPAY, CPS, CSV, CW, CWEN, CXT, CXW, DASH, DHT, DHX, DLX, EBS, EE, EHC, ELF, ETSY, EXPE, FG, FIG, FNF, GNK, GNL, GNW, GPMT, HBB, HCC, HHH, HLF, HMN, HP, HRTG, HUBS, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KMPR, KNTK, KRO, KVYO, LB, LEU, LTC, MATV, MCK, MET, MGY, MIAX, MLR, MSI, MTDR, MUR, MUSA, MWA, NC, NEXA, NL, NVST, O, OBDC, OEC, ONT, ORA, OTF, OUT, OXY, PAYC, PRI, PRSU, QGEN, RAMP, RCUS, RDN, RDW, RIG, RYN, SEG, SEI, SGU, SM, SMA, SMR, SNDK, SOLV, SRI, SST, STE, TNC, TPC, TPL, TPVG, TROX, TS, UGI, UHAL, UMH, USPH, UTI, UVV, VAL, VEL, WBI, WDC, WES, WTI, WTS, XPER, XRN, XYZ, ZIP, ZVIA
Pre-Market: ASPN, ATI, AVNT, BDX, BKSY, BKV, BOBS, BXSL, CARS, CEG, CHGG, CION, CNR, COLD, COP, DAN, DCO, DDOG, DNOW, ENOV, EPAM, ESAB, EVH, FOUR, FISV, FSK, FUN, FVR, GEL, GENI, GEO, GHM, GNE, GOLF, GSL, HAE, HWM, IBP, ITGR, ITT, KOP, KVUE, LCLN, LEG, LNG, LOAR, MAGN, MDU, MMI, MMS, NCDL, NREF, NUVB, ONIT, OPTU, OSCR, PH, PLNT, PR, QSR, RL, RXO, SDHC, SGI, SHO, SPH, SRE, SSTK, STWD, TAP, TDAY, TFX, TGLS, TIC, TRC, TRGP, TSQ, U, USFD, UWMC, VAC, VIA, VNT, WD, WMS, WRBY, ZTS
After-Market: ABX, AFL, ALTG, AHR, AIG, AMN, AMRZ, ARLO, ARNB, ARW, AORT, AGO, BARK, BLND, CABO, CTRE, CBL, CPK, CLPR, NET, CON, ED, CVSA, DV, DOCS, EFC, ESE, XZO, FIGS, G, GMED, GSBD, GRNT, GRND, GROV, GRDN, HASI, HG, HCI, KRMN, KWY, KGS, LION, MAIN, MTW, MBI, MSDL, MP, NGVC, NNI, NRDY, NOG, OSG, OFRM, ONTO, ONL, PBR, POST, RMAX, RGA, RSG, RMD, RLJ, RKT, RHP, SVV, SI, SARO, SG, TWLO, EGY, VHI, VTEX, WEAV, WHG, XPOF, YELP

Economic Data:
US:
Mortgage Apps: -2.9%w.w prior -6.4%; 30yr Rate 6.81% prior 6.76%
ADP Employment: 44k vs. 70k cons., prior revised to 95k from 98k
Final S&P Global Services PMI: 54.6 prior 53.6
ISM Services: 54.1 vs. 54.5 cons., prior 54.0

Global:
  • China Rating Dog Services: 50.4 vs. 53.7 cons., prior 54.1
  • Final Japan Services PMI: 51.2 revised from 51.9
  • Reserve Bank of India leaves rates unchanged at 5.25%
  • Final India Services PMI: 53.3 revised from 53.1
  • Final EU Services PMI: 51.3 revised from 51.2
  • EU PPI: -0.3%/4.6% m.m/y.y vs. -0.3%/4.6% cons., prior 0.2%/5.9%
  • Final Germany Services PMI: 49.8 revised from 49.6
  • Final UK Services PMI: 52.1 revised from 51.8
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/5/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
Yesterday was a beautiful summer’s day: blue skies, sunshine and new all-time highs. Amidst growing optimism for a diplomatic resolution in Iran and strong earnings the S&P 500 opened up ~0.4% just above the previous all-time high hit in June and didn’t look back, ending the session up nearly 2%. Tech did much of the heavy lifting with the NYSE 100 up ~3.5% but the gains were broad based. Once again energy and defensive/yield-oriented sectors underperformed. Oil prices fell >5% with ICE Brent breaking below $80 which helped Treasury yields pull back from the recent highs. Putting the earnings strength in perspective with about 70% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported Q2 500 EPS growth is up ~50% y/y. This does include ~$150B of investment gains at Amazon/Google excluding that, growth is still up ~30%.
 
Futures are pointing to another higher open. Iran deal hopes have not faded despite a Saudi tanker being attacked in the Red Sea. Oil prices and Treasury yields ticked up modestly on those headlines overnight. It continues to be busy on the earnings front. S&P futures are at session highs up  ~0.5%.
 

 
Tech earnings overnight were generally strong, but the stocks are struggling given high expectations. Arista Networks is an upside standout up ~10%. AMD is down >5% despite strong numbers with sentiment also being hit after Elon Musk said SpaceX would build infrastructure exclusively with Nvidia hardware. SpaceX is down ~10% giving up yesterday’s gains after its first earnings report as a public company. Earnings and revenue both came in ahead of expectations, but markets are focused on the heavy Capex spending and the looming shareholder unlocks. Telecom stocks are under pressure in the pre-market after the company said it will be going after their market share. Eli Lilly, the only trillion-dollar healthcare company, is up ~5% after strong numbers. Disney is up ~3.5% after beating EPS estimates and reaffirmed guidance.
 
This morning the ADP employment survey came in below estimates at 44k. A decline in natural resource and mining jobs (-6k) offset paltry gains in construction/manufacturing. Within services education/healthcare services accounted from the bulk of the job gains (36k) while leisure and hospitality and trade, trans, and utilities both fell. Pay for job stayers held steady at 4.4% but increased 0.2% to 7% for job changers. The Treasury released its Quarterly Refunding Statement with no real surprises. Issuance will be $125B with no change to the make up of that issuance and said, “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” After the open final services PMI and ISM services will be released. Treasury yields are off the overnight lows hovering around unchanged but didn’t really react to the data.
 
  • US 2yr +1bps to 4.21%, 5yr +2bps to 4.35%, 10yr +1bps to 4.62%, 30yr -0bps to 5.17%
  • USD index: -$0.13 to $99.61
 
Markets in Asia rallied overnight following in the US markets footsteps. Tech heavy indices led to the upside. South Korea and the Nikkei were both up >3% while Taiwan was up >2%. In Japan final services PMI was revised a touch lower. Tech stocks led to the upside with Softbank up 14% following earnings. Financials moved higher while retail underperformed. The Yen has held most of the intervention rally consolidating ~157.50. JGB yields were down a couple bps overnight. In China economic data continues to disappoint, services PMI missed estimates. China’s Commerce Ministry retaliated after the recent trade actions taken by Washington (robots/optical). Export restrictions will be placed on drone components and related technologies which will require a case-by-case review. It is initiating a security review of imports of printing, copying, and office equipment. It has sanctioned Compliance Testing for its role in the recent FCC decision and announced sanction six additional companies. Overnight the Hang Seng ended slightly higher while the Shanghai Comp was up ~1.5%. In Europe services PMIs were revised a touch higher. Major indices modestly higher but are off of the best levels. Earnings continue to be busy in Europe as well. Infineon is down ~5% after its results failed to meet high expectations. Novo Nordisk is down >5% on disappointing Wegovy sales. Siemens Energy is trading slightly lower despite strong numbers.
 

 
ICE Brent is up ~1% hovering ~$80 ahead of inventory data later this morning. Natural gas prices are modestly lower. Gold is up >2% breaking above its 50d ma and hitting the highest level since June. Silver is also up >2%. Copper continues to grind higher. Ag is mixed. Crypto is hovering around unchanged.
 

 
Earnings:
After-Market: ACEL, AFG, AIZ, ALAB, ALIT, AMD, AMGN, AMWL, ANET, ANGX, ARDT, AROC, BBBY, BIO, BKNG, BV, BXC, CALY, CC, CE, CHCT, COMP.EQ, CPNG, CRBG, DBRG, DEI, DOC, DVA, DVN, ECG, ECO, EMR, EOG, EQH, EVTC, FBIN, FOA, FTK, GIC, GILD, GXO, HL, HNGE, HY, IFF, IPI, ITUB, J, JAN, JBGS, JXN, KAI, KODK, LDI, LRN, LACC, LUMN, MAC, MBC, MEC, MNTN, MOS, NGL, NVGS, NXDR, OGS, PACS, PARR, PINS, PRIM, PRU, PSTL, RBA, RVLV, RYAM, SGHC, SKT, SKY, SPCX, TALO, TBI, TDC, TOST, TSLX, TX, UP, USNA, VOYA, VTOL, WK, WTRG, WTTR, ZETA
Pre-Market: ADNT, AMPX, BWA, BCO, BAM, CDW, CPRI, CG, COR, CRL, CIM, CHH, CRCL, YOU, LAW, CWK, CVS, DKL, DK, DIN, DIS, LPG, DT, ECVT, EPC, ELAN, FLUT, FUBO, Glencore, GLXY, GPN, GFF, GFS, HGTY, HLLY, HPP, Infineon, IRM, KMT, KD, LCII, LLY, LPX, MTRN, MFA, NRP, NATL, NYT, NI, NWN, OC, PSBD, PRGO, PSX, PRMB, RRX, RPC, SHAK, Siemens Energy, SHOP, SN, SMRT, SWX, SR, TRIN, UBER, UTZ, VVV, VSH, VPG, VYX, ZBH
After-Market: ACA, AGBK, AGL, AKA, ALB, ALL, APLE, ATEN, ATO, AWR, AXIA, BBDC, BGSF, BHR, BKH, BROS, CACI, CAPL, CDE, CDRE, CF, CMP, COOK, CPA, CPAY, CPS, CSV, CW, CWEN, CXT, CXW, DASH, DHT, DHX, DLX, EBS, EE, EHC, ELF, ETSY, EXPE, FG, FIG, FNF, GNK, GNL, GNW, GPMT, HBB, HCC, HHH, HLF, HMN, HP, HRTG, HUBS, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KMPR, KNTK, KRO, KVYO, LB, LEU, LTC, MATV, MCK, MET, MGY, MIAX, MLR, MSI, MTDR, MUR, MUSA, MWA, NC, NEXA, NL, NVST, O, OBDC, OEC, ONT, ORA, OTF, OUT, OXY, PAYC, PRI, PRSU, QGEN, RAMP, RCUS, RDN, RDW, RIG, RYN, SEG, SEI, SGU, SM, SMA, SMR, SNDK, SOLV, SRI, SST, STE, TNC, TPC, TPL, TPVG, TROX, TS, UGI, UHAL, UMH, USPH, UTI, UVV, VAL, VEL, WBI, WDC, WES, WTI, WTS, XPER, XRN, XYZ, ZIP, ZVIA
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage Apps: -2.9%w.w prior -6.4%; 30yr Rate 6.81% prior 6.76%
  • ADP Employment: 44k vs. 70k cons., prior revised to 95k from 98k
  • 9:45 Final S&P Global Services PMI: prior 53.6
  • 10:00 ISM Services: vs. 54.5 cons., prior 54.0
  • 10:30 Oil Inventories
Global:
  • China Rating Dog Services: 50.4 vs. 53.7 cons., prior 54.1
  • Final Japan Services PMI: 51.2 revised from 51.9
  • Reserve Bank of India leaves rates unchanged at 5.25%
  • Final India Services PMI: 53.3 revised from 53.1
  • Final EU Services PMI: 51.3 revised from 51.2
  • EU PPI: -0.3%/4.6% m.m/y.y vs. -0.3%/4.6% cons., prior 0.2%/5.9%
  • Final Germany Services PMI: 49.8 revised from 49.6
  • Final UK Services PMI: 52.1 revised from 51.8

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