STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 11/09/26 (a/o 1:05 pm)
DOW 52,374 (+1088), S&P 500 7,547 (+171), Russell 2000 2,831 (+77), NYSE FANG+ 17,385 (+550), ICE Brent Crude $93.54/barrel (-$4.78), Gold $4,111/oz (+$36), Bitcoin ~74.7k (-1080)
- An interesting state of affairs
- Tech shrugs off headlines, equities sharply higher
- Oil lower, metals higher
- CPI tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 566: Sceye CEO Mikkel Vestergaard on Stratospheric Infrastructure Linking the World
- ETF Central: Introducing the Schwab International Bond ETF
- NYSE Research: The Busiest room on Wall Street
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: 2.4 Million Mortgage Holders Are Equity Millionaires as Q3 Home Equity Hits Record High
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
A delayed response to the US election results saw equities sell off sharply on Thursday, but ended slightly higher on Friday. Tech bounced from Thursday’s battering (and a little bit on Wednesday) but there wasn’t much conviction behind it. Despite the post-election beating and 3% decline, the S&P 500 still didn’t touch its 200d ma. Friday’s jobs report came in well ahead of expectations along with positive revisions to the previous two months adding to the report’s robustness. Treasury yields didn’t do much on the day however, and ended the week down about 10bp out to the 10 year. Oil was flat on Friday but fell more than 10% for the week on renewed hopes for diplomatic breakthroughs with Iran.
US equities are following through today, gapping up 0.6% at the Open and extending throughout the session, now near sessions highs with gains >2%. Oil prices have retreated again, helping equites strengthen. The solid gains stand out even more given NVDA is down 5% on the big news story coming out of the weekend: CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy and executive at Megaspeed- a Singapore-based data center company. The NVDA Board is doing an independent review and Congressional reviews are likely. We don’t need to discuss the importance of the stock both within the AI complex and the overall market.
Outside of NVDA the rest of the tech sector is mostly higher, including memory/chip names, data centers and optical networking suppliers. CoreWeave (Tues after the close) and Nebius (Thursday) both report earnings later this week, in what will be the latest barometers of the AI trade. Meanwhile, Anthropic is expected to begin its IPO roadshow this week, which should create a lot of discussion about positioning heading into the event and the additional supply needed to be absorbed by the market.
Every sector is higher after the laggards Staples and Energy turned positive. Industrials are leading as the AI-leveraged stocks rally sharply (e.g. VRT +10%) and defense contractors are also solidly higher. FERG’s >10% gain on earnings is also helping lift the sector. Consumer Discretionary is benefiting from TSLA’s 5% gain, while travel/leisure and retail sees a tailwind from lower energy prices. The megacaps are driving Comm Services higher (META +5%). Utilities are trading higher as IPPs CEG and NRG jump ~10% on earnings. Financials are up but lagging. The big banks are up 2-3% as are Capital Markets but Insurance is mixed. BRK is slightly higher after reporting over the weekend. Weakness in the insurance business was offset by rail, industrial and energy segments. For the laggards, Consumer Staples is flat on the risk-on move. Big-box retailers are mixed (WMT down slightly) as are food and beverage stocks while tobacco is lower. Energy was following oil lower but turned positive with pipelines and refiners leading.
The treasury curve is flattening with 2y up 5bp despite oil’s decline, while 10/30y are flat. The 3y auction tailed by 0.5bp. Fed Speak today was tinged with hawkishness. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he’s starting to see inflation kicking up in services and the Fed needs to come to terms with its inflation failure, though consumer spending remains a key driver of growth. Richmond Fed President Barkin said he was hearing reports of broad-based cost pressures while consumer sentiment is “bleak” but spending continues. However he believes its wise to move with caution though the path for rates is higher. In the NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey, median inflation was unchanged at the 1, 3 and 5-year horizons. The US Dollar is weaker on the major crosses, erasing about half of Friday's gains.
- US 2yr +5bps to 4.57%, 5yr +3bps to 4.68%, 10yr +1bps to 4.88%, 30yr -1bps to 5.26%
- USD index: -$0.47 to $101.71
Brent crude is under pressure again and has faded throughout the day. President Trump said renewed strikes are highly unlikely if nuclear talks and the Strait negotiations progress. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but there have been mixed assessments as to where they stand. Trump will meet with Qatar’s prime minister today, while VP Vance will reportedly head to Qatar next week to meet with Iran’s General Rezaei. January ICE Brent near its lows, down ~5%. On the other hand US natural gas prices are up 6%, extending a recent bounce as a cold spell comes into the forecast. European gas is lower. The metals complex is higher, reversing overnight weakness with oil and the USD lower. Crypto was under pressure over the weekend. Bitcoin tested its 200d just over $73k and has bounced modestly. Ethereum meanwhile has broken below its 200d ma. The NYSE has selected Avalanche blockchain to settle tokenized stock trades on its planned Digital Trading Platform.
Major European equities were up 1-2%, extending to their highs as US markets approached the open. Basic resources were a leader with metals higher, and banks and tech were also solidly higher. Consumer goods and Energy lagged. German exports rose 2% and beat expectations. Finance ministers began discussing the race to succeed ECB President Lagarde, who is leaving her position in February. It’s a short ballot with only former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos (GM of the BIS) on the list.
Japan bounced 2% after the Nikkei got slammed for 6% on Friday. Gains were broadly distributed though pockets of tech remained under pressure (Softbank -4%, after a 10% decline on Friday, Kioxia -2%, down 9% on Friday). Mitsui Chemicals is buying semiconductor materials maker JSR Corp for ¥1.84T ($12B). South Korea’s Kospi saw a similar decline as Japan on Friday but not the bounce today. Equities tried to rally but faded in the second half of trading to close near their lows. Korean media reported Samsung was looking into potential leaks of confidential chipmaking processes to Lam Research Korea. Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 5%, cutting into much of Friday’s decline. Chinese equities were mixed, with Hang Seng down slightly and Shanghai higher. Chinese CPI was flat month-over-month and cooled, while PPI was hotter than expected. Bloomberg reported that China will suspend some measures including a retaliatory 24% tariff on US goods for another two months, while the USTR will suspend actions on China's shipbuilding and maritime sector..
US CPI will be the key data tomorrow, along with a 10y auction, a bunch of Fed Speak, and China trade data. Fed Waller will speak before the Open. Earnings will include BW, HIMS, ONON, OXY, SECZ and SKYD. CRWV reports Tuesday night.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AAON, ACHR, AMRC, ASTS, BETR, BKKT, BTGO, BW, CNNE, CWEN, CWST, DJT, EQPT, GSHD, HIMS, HRB, KMPR, LCID, MARA, OXY, QLYS, QUBT, RKLB, SANM, SECZ, SKYD, TTD, TTWO, USAR, ZETA, ZIP
- Pre-Market (Tues): AP, BTDR, LAR, MCFT, ONON, SBH, SE, TDG, VG, WYFI
- After-Market (Tues): ALC, AZTA, BGS, BV, CRWV, ENS, FOSL, GO, MRCY, PBR, PETS, REZI, RGTI, SONO, STUB
Economic Data:
US:
- Wholesale Inventories: 0.7% vs 0.6% cons, prior 0.6%
- 3y auction: Tailed by 0.5bp
Global:
- China CPI y.y / m.m: 0% / 0.7% vs. 0% / 0.8% cons., prior 0.2% / 0.9%
- China PPI y.y: 5.7% vs. 5.3% cons. prior 5.0%
- Germany Import / Export m.m: 4.2% / 2% vs. 0.5% / 0.5% cons., prior 0.6% / -0.4%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking & Eric Criscuolo
Published on 11/09/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
After selling off sharply on Thursday US markets ended slightly higher on Friday. Tech led after getting throttled but there wasn’t much conviction behind the activity. Friday’s jobs report came in well ahead of expectations along with positive revisions to the previous two months. There was a minimal reaction within the rates market with 2-10yr yields ending the week down nearly 10bps driven by a mix of a flight to safety, following oil prices lower and as markets pondered the inflation outlook should AI investment slow.
There is some upside follow through this morning with US futures trading near overnight highs up ~1%. Oil prices have are under pressure again trading just above last week’s lows. President Trump said renewed strikes are highly unlikely if talks on nuclear and the Strait progress. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but there have been mixed assessments as to where they stand. Over the last hour there have been reports that Qatar will host VP Vance and Iran’s General Rezaei next week. ICE Brent is near the lows down ~5% trading around $93.50.
The big story coming out of the weekend has been the Jensen Huang affair with a suspected Chinese spy and CEO of Megaspeed. The Board is doing an independent review and Congressional reviews are likely. Nvidia (-5%) is such an integral piece within the AI complex both from a technology and financing perspective which heightens the importance of the situation. Outside of the Nvidia weakness the AI complex is extending Friday’s bounce. Anthropic is expected to begin its roadshow this week. Most chip, memory, and infrastructure stocks are up 1% - 3% in the pre-market though neoclouds remain under pressure. Coreweave (Tues aft) and Nebius (Thurs) both report earnings later this week. This morning Constellation Energy and NRG Energy are both trading higher after strong earnings. Berkshire is trading around unchanged after reporting over the weekend. Weakness in the insurance business was offset by rail, industrial and energy segments.
There is a little bit of a flattening of the yield curve. After the open the NY Fed will release its Survey of Consumer Expectations and there are a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar. However, tomorrow’s CPI report is the big piece of data this week. The USD is down ~0.4% giving back some of Friday’s post jobs report rally.
Major European equities are trading up around 1%, extending to their highs as we approach the open. Basic resources are leading with metals higher, and banks and tech are also among the leaders. Consumer goods and Energy are lagging. German exports rose 2% and beat expectations. Finance ministers began discussing the race to succeed ECB President Lagarde, who is leaving her position in February. It’s a short ballot with only former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos (GM of the BIS) on the list. Japan bounced 2% after the Nikkei got slammed for 6% on Friday. Gains were broadly distributed though pockets of tech remained under pressure (Softbank -4%, after a 10% decline on Friday, Kioxia -2%, down 9% on Friday). Mitsui Chemicals is buying semiconductor materials maker JSR Corp for ¥1.84T ($12B). South Korea’s Kospi saw a similar decline as Japan on Friday but not the bounce today. Equities tried to rally but faded in the second half of trading to close near their lows. Korean media reported Samsung was looking into potential leaks of confidential chipmaking processes to Lam Research Korea. Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 5%, cutting into much of Friday’s decline. Chinese equities were mixed, with Hang Seng down slightly and Shanghai higher. Chinese CPI was flat month-over-month and cooled, while PPI was hotter than expected. Bloomberg reported that China will suspend some measures including a retaliatory 24% tariff on US goods for another two months, while the USTR will suspend actions on China's shipbuilding and maritime sector.
We discussed oil above. US nat gas prices are up nearly 5% extending the recent bounce though prices in Europe remain under pressure. The metals complex has reversed the overnight weakness as the USD has pulled back with prices up >1%. Ag is mixed. Crypto was under pressure over the weekend. Bitcoin tested its 200d just over 73k and has bounced modestly. However, Ethereum broke below its 200d ma currently trading down ~5%.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CEG, CNH, FERG, KKR, NRG, SGI
Economic Data:
US:
After selling off sharply on Thursday US markets ended slightly higher on Friday. Tech led after getting throttled but there wasn’t much conviction behind the activity. Friday’s jobs report came in well ahead of expectations along with positive revisions to the previous two months. There was a minimal reaction within the rates market with 2-10yr yields ending the week down nearly 10bps driven by a mix of a flight to safety, following oil prices lower and as markets pondered the inflation outlook should AI investment slow.
There is some upside follow through this morning with US futures trading near overnight highs up ~1%. Oil prices have are under pressure again trading just above last week’s lows. President Trump said renewed strikes are highly unlikely if talks on nuclear and the Strait progress. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but there have been mixed assessments as to where they stand. Over the last hour there have been reports that Qatar will host VP Vance and Iran’s General Rezaei next week. ICE Brent is near the lows down ~5% trading around $93.50.
The big story coming out of the weekend has been the Jensen Huang affair with a suspected Chinese spy and CEO of Megaspeed. The Board is doing an independent review and Congressional reviews are likely. Nvidia (-5%) is such an integral piece within the AI complex both from a technology and financing perspective which heightens the importance of the situation. Outside of the Nvidia weakness the AI complex is extending Friday’s bounce. Anthropic is expected to begin its roadshow this week. Most chip, memory, and infrastructure stocks are up 1% - 3% in the pre-market though neoclouds remain under pressure. Coreweave (Tues aft) and Nebius (Thurs) both report earnings later this week. This morning Constellation Energy and NRG Energy are both trading higher after strong earnings. Berkshire is trading around unchanged after reporting over the weekend. Weakness in the insurance business was offset by rail, industrial and energy segments.
There is a little bit of a flattening of the yield curve. After the open the NY Fed will release its Survey of Consumer Expectations and there are a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar. However, tomorrow’s CPI report is the big piece of data this week. The USD is down ~0.4% giving back some of Friday’s post jobs report rally.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.54%, 5yr -1bps to 4.65%, 10yr -2bps to 4.84%, 30yr -3bps to 5.24%
- USD index: -$0.46 to $101.72
Major European equities are trading up around 1%, extending to their highs as we approach the open. Basic resources are leading with metals higher, and banks and tech are also among the leaders. Consumer goods and Energy are lagging. German exports rose 2% and beat expectations. Finance ministers began discussing the race to succeed ECB President Lagarde, who is leaving her position in February. It’s a short ballot with only former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos (GM of the BIS) on the list. Japan bounced 2% after the Nikkei got slammed for 6% on Friday. Gains were broadly distributed though pockets of tech remained under pressure (Softbank -4%, after a 10% decline on Friday, Kioxia -2%, down 9% on Friday). Mitsui Chemicals is buying semiconductor materials maker JSR Corp for ¥1.84T ($12B). South Korea’s Kospi saw a similar decline as Japan on Friday but not the bounce today. Equities tried to rally but faded in the second half of trading to close near their lows. Korean media reported Samsung was looking into potential leaks of confidential chipmaking processes to Lam Research Korea. Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 5%, cutting into much of Friday’s decline. Chinese equities were mixed, with Hang Seng down slightly and Shanghai higher. Chinese CPI was flat month-over-month and cooled, while PPI was hotter than expected. Bloomberg reported that China will suspend some measures including a retaliatory 24% tariff on US goods for another two months, while the USTR will suspend actions on China's shipbuilding and maritime sector.
We discussed oil above. US nat gas prices are up nearly 5% extending the recent bounce though prices in Europe remain under pressure. The metals complex has reversed the overnight weakness as the USD has pulled back with prices up >1%. Ag is mixed. Crypto was under pressure over the weekend. Bitcoin tested its 200d just over 73k and has bounced modestly. However, Ethereum broke below its 200d ma currently trading down ~5%.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: CEG, CNH, FERG, KKR, NRG, SGI
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
- 10:00 Fed Goolsbee
- 11:00 NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
- 12:15 Fed Barkin
- China CPI: 0%0.7% vs. 0%/0.8% cons., prior 0.2%/0.9%
- China PPI: 5.7% vs. 5.3% cons,. prior 5%
- Germany Import/Export: 4.2%/2% vs. 0.5%/0.5% cons., prior -0.4%/0.6%
- Average Weekly Hours: vs. 34.4 cons., prior 34.4
- Average Hourly Earnings: vs. 0.3%/2.9% cons., prior 0.1%/3%
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