NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update

DOW 42,337 (+122), S&P 500 6,003 (+20), Russell 2000 2,125 (+23), NYSE FANG+ 14,253 (+14), ICE Brent Crude $75.94/barrel (-$0.51), Gold $3,410/oz (+$3), Bitcoin ~104.2k (-433)

• Stocks up, yields down ahead of Fed
• Most sectors higher; Discretionary leading, Energy lagging
• Softer rhetoric from Trump
• Markets closed tomorrow
• Congrats to the Cats
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • Inside the ICE House Episode 475:  Schneider CEO Mark Rourke on 90 Years of Legacy & Leading the Road Ahead
  • Inside the ICE Market StoryLines - 6/13 
  • Data Insights: The NYSE Advantage

MAC Desk Commentary:
Congratulations to all the loyal MAC Desk/Florida Panthers fans for repeating as Stanley Cup champions last night. To our readers in Edmonton, it was another great run that came up  short. Better luck next year unless you play the Islanders. Equity markets are celebrating a bit today ahead of the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 opened slightly higher and has extended those gains into the afternoon after President Trump’s latest comments on Iran seemed to push back against the more hawkish comments he made yesterday. The S&P is up 0.2% while the Russell 2000 outperforms again, up ~1%. Most sectors are modestly higher with Discretionary outperforming as travel and leisure names are among the best performers and homebuilders and Tesla rebound. Financials are mostly higher but the payment/credit card names are lower with the passage of the GENIUS stablecoin bill. Tech is up with strength in the semis (ICE Semi Index +1%). Energy is the only sector lower as oil slides 1%. Back to Florida sports briefly: Looks like the Tamp Bay Rays are close to being sold for $1.8bn according to Sportico. Lots of action in the state today. 


 
Treasuries are seeing a modest bid heading into the Fed decision, with yields lower by about 3bp across the curve. The US Dollar Index moved lower on Trump’s comments. The FOMC update is the key piece of expected news today. The market has fully priced in no change in the fed funds rate. The major focus will be on the SEP and dot plot updates (last update was in March), changes in the statement and Powell’s Q&A on how the risk/uncertainty landscape have evolved.  The NYSE MAC Desk will provide a recap. Jobless claims were released today ahead of the holiday tomorrow. They were inline with consensus and ticked down from a revised 250K last week, to 245K this week. Continuing claims were slightly above consensus but also ticked down from last week’s revised number. Bloomberg reported the US bank regulators are reviewing adjustments to the eSLR ratio that would lower capital requirements for large banks, potentially enhancing their ability to intermediate in markets like Treasuries. This idea and variations of it have been discussed numerous times, including by Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Government Yields

• US 2yr -3bps to 3.92%, 5yr -4bps to 3.95%, 10yr -3bps to 4.35%, 30yr -3bps to 4.86%
• USD index: -$0.22 to $98.18

Yesterday equities were trading slightly lower during the first half of the day. Then came reports of US military assets being moved into the Middle East and comments from President Trump and other sources that leaned towards potential US military intervention. That put additional pressure on stocks, sending them to their lows to finish the day as the S%P 500 closed down 0.8%. Treasuries were bid, pushing yields lower and the Dollar strengthened as the war rhetoric ratcheted up in the afternoon. Energy was the only sector higher as oil gained. Healthcare (biopharma, Tools) and Consumer Discretionary (Tesla, Homebuilders, apparel, travel) were the worst performing sectors.
 
Oil was slightly higher earlier today before moving lower on the Trump Iran comments and despite a big 11M barrel inventory draw from the EIA data, confirming yesterday’s API draw of 10M, much higher than estimates. Gold is flat while silver is lower, and copper is up. Bitcoin roughly flat. 

 
Other Asset Classes:


Japan was up 1% despite the US weakness yesterday. May exports and trade balance came in higher than expected. China was mixed with Shanghai flat and Hong Kong lower. PBOC Governor Pan Gonsheng announced new policies and plans to increase the global uptake of the yuan and shift the monetary system to a less dollar-dependent structure. Europe finished mostly down and most major indexes closed near their lowest levels. Trade talks with the US have showed little progress of late, while the ECB’s Panetta stressed the need for a very flexible ECB policy stance as the European economy faces substantial risks from tariffs and Middle East conflict. The European Commission proposed new rules that would loosen securitization regulation in the EU, potentially freeing up bank and lending activity. Sweeden’s Riksbank cut its policy rate as expected while UK inflation eased in May following a significant step-up last month. The BOE is expected to maintain its policy rate tomorrow.

Global Indexes


Economic Data:

• US:
  • MBA Mortgage purchase applications: -3.0% vs. prior 10.3%
    • Refi applications: -2.1% vs. prior 15.6%
  • Housing Starts: 1.256M vs. 1.36M cons., prior 1.392M
  • Building Permits: 1.393M vs. 1.43M cons., prior 1.422M
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 245K vs. 245K cons., prior 250K
    • Continuing Claims: 1945K vs. 1940K cons., prior 1951K
  • EIA Cude inventories: -11.473M vs. -2.3M cons., prior -3.644M
  • 2:00pm FOMC decision / 2:30pm Press Conference
• Global
  • Japan Exports/Imports May y.y: -1.7% / -7.7% vs. -3.8% / -6.7% cons., prior 2.0% / -2.2%  
  • Japan Trade Balance May: ¥-637.6B vs. ¥-893B cons., prior ¥-115.6B 
  • Japan Machinery Orders April m.m / y.y: -9.1% / 6.6% vs. -9.7% / 4.0% cons., prior 13.0% / 8.4%
  • UK CPI m.m: 0.2% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 1.2%  
    • Core CPI m.m: 0.2% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 1.4%
  • Indonesia Rate Decision: Maintain at 5.5% as expected
  • Riksbank Rate Decision: Cut to 2% as expected
  • Europe CPI May Final y.y: 1.9% vs. 1.9% preliminary, prior 2.2%
  • Core CPI: 2.3% vs. 2.3% preliminary, prior 2.7%