Good morning,
Yesterday was a beautiful summer’s day: blue skies, sunshine and new all-time highs. Amidst growing optimism for a diplomatic resolution in Iran and strong earnings the S&P 500 opened up ~0.4% just above the previous all-time high hit in June and didn’t look back, ending the session up nearly 2%. Tech did much of the heavy lifting with the NYSE 100 up ~3.5% but the gains were broad based. Once again energy and defensive/yield-oriented sectors underperformed. Oil prices fell >5% with ICE Brent breaking below $80 which helped Treasury yields pull back from the recent highs. Putting the earnings strength in perspective with about 70% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported Q2 500 EPS growth is up ~50% y/y. This does include ~$150B of investment gains at Amazon/Google excluding that, growth is still up ~30%.
Futures are pointing to another higher open. Iran deal hopes have not faded despite a Saudi tanker being attacked in the Red Sea. Oil prices and Treasury yields ticked up modestly on those headlines overnight. It continues to be busy on the earnings front. S&P futures are at session highs up ~0.5%.
Tech earnings overnight were generally strong, but the stocks are struggling given high expectations. Arista Networks is an upside standout up ~10%. AMD is down >5% despite strong numbers with sentiment also being hit after Elon Musk said SpaceX would build infrastructure exclusively with Nvidia hardware. SpaceX is down ~10% giving up yesterday’s gains after its first earnings report as a public company. Earnings and revenue both came in ahead of expectations, but markets are focused on the heavy Capex spending and the looming shareholder unlocks. Telecom stocks are under pressure in the pre-market after the company said it will be going after their market share. Eli Lilly, the only trillion-dollar healthcare company, is up ~5% after strong numbers. Disney is up ~3.5% after beating EPS estimates and reaffirmed guidance.
This morning the ADP employment survey came in below estimates at 44k. A decline in natural resource and mining jobs (-6k) offset paltry gains in construction/manufacturing. Within services education/healthcare services accounted from the bulk of the job gains (36k) while leisure and hospitality and trade, trans, and utilities both fell. Pay for job stayers held steady at 4.4% but increased 0.2% to 7% for job changers. The Treasury released its Quarterly Refunding Statement with no real surprises. Issuance will be $125B with no change to the make up of that issuance and said, “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” After the open final services PMI and ISM services will be released. Treasury yields are off the overnight lows hovering around unchanged but didn’t really react to the data.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.21%, 5yr +2bps to 4.35%, 10yr +1bps to 4.62%, 30yr -0bps to 5.17%
- USD index: -$0.13 to $99.61
Markets in Asia rallied overnight following in the US markets footsteps. Tech heavy indices led to the upside. South Korea and the Nikkei were both up >3% while Taiwan was up >2%. In Japan final services PMI was revised a touch lower. Tech stocks led to the upside with Softbank up 14% following earnings. Financials moved higher while retail underperformed. The Yen has held most of the intervention rally consolidating ~157.50. JGB yields were down a couple bps overnight. In China economic data continues to disappoint, services PMI missed estimates. China’s Commerce Ministry retaliated after the recent trade actions taken by Washington (robots/optical). Export restrictions will be placed on drone components and related technologies which will require a case-by-case review. It is initiating a security review of imports of printing, copying, and office equipment. It has sanctioned Compliance Testing for its role in the recent FCC decision and announced sanction six additional companies. Overnight the Hang Seng ended slightly higher while the Shanghai Comp was up ~1.5%. In Europe services PMIs were revised a touch higher. Major indices modestly higher but are off of the best levels. Earnings continue to be busy in Europe as well. Infineon is down ~5% after its results failed to meet high expectations. Novo Nordisk is down >5% on disappointing Wegovy sales. Siemens Energy is trading slightly lower despite strong numbers.
ICE Brent is up ~1% hovering ~$80 ahead of inventory data later this morning. Natural gas prices are modestly lower. Gold is up >2% breaking above its 50d ma and hitting the highest level since June. Silver is also up >2%. Copper continues to grind higher. Ag is mixed. Crypto is hovering around unchanged.
Earnings:
After-Market: ACEL, AFG, AIZ, ALAB, ALIT, AMD, AMGN, AMWL, ANET, ANGX, ARDT, AROC, BBBY, BIO, BKNG, BV, BXC, CALY, CC, CE, CHCT, COMP.EQ, CPNG, CRBG, DBRG, DEI, DOC, DVA, DVN, ECG, ECO, EMR, EOG, EQH, EVTC, FBIN, FOA, FTK, GIC, GILD, GXO, HL, HNGE, HY, IFF, IPI, ITUB, J, JAN, JBGS, JXN, KAI, KODK, LDI, LRN, LACC, LUMN, MAC, MBC, MEC, MNTN, MOS, NGL, NVGS, NXDR, OGS, PACS, PARR, PINS, PRIM, PRU, PSTL, RBA, RVLV, RYAM, SGHC, SKT, SKY, SPCX, TALO, TBI, TDC, TOST, TSLX, TX, UP, USNA, VOYA, VTOL, WK, WTRG, WTTR, ZETA
Pre-Market: ADNT, AMPX, BWA, BCO, BAM, CDW, CPRI, CG, COR, CRL, CIM, CHH, CRCL, YOU, LAW, CWK, CVS, DKL, DK, DIN, DIS, LPG, DT, ECVT, EPC, ELAN, FLUT, FUBO, Glencore, GLXY, GPN, GFF, GFS, HGTY, HLLY, HPP, Infineon, IRM, KMT, KD, LCII, LLY, LPX, MTRN, MFA, NRP, NATL, NYT, NI, NWN, OC, PSBD, PRGO, PSX, PRMB, RRX, RPC, SHAK, Siemens Energy, SHOP, SN, SMRT, SWX, SR, TRIN, UBER, UTZ, VVV, VSH, VPG, VYX, ZBH
After-Market: ACA, AGBK, AGL, AKA, ALB, ALL, APLE, ATEN, ATO, AWR, AXIA, BBDC, BGSF, BHR, BKH, BROS, CACI, CAPL, CDE, CDRE, CF, CMP, COOK, CPA, CPAY, CPS, CSV, CW, CWEN, CXT, CXW, DASH, DHT, DHX, DLX, EBS, EE, EHC, ELF, ETSY, EXPE, FG, FIG, FNF, GNK, GNL, GNW, GPMT, HBB, HCC, HHH, HLF, HMN, HP, HRTG, HUBS, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KMPR, KNTK, KRO, KVYO, LB, LEU, LTC, MATV, MCK, MET, MGY, MIAX, MLR, MSI, MTDR, MUR, MUSA, MWA, NC, NEXA, NL, NVST, O, OBDC, OEC, ONT, ORA, OTF, OUT, OXY, PAYC, PRI, PRSU, QGEN, RAMP, RCUS, RDN, RDW, RIG, RYN, SEG, SEI, SGU, SM, SMA, SMR, SNDK, SOLV, SRI, SST, STE, TNC, TPC, TPL, TPVG, TROX, TS, UGI, UHAL, UMH, USPH, UTI, UVV, VAL, VEL, WBI, WDC, WES, WTI, WTS, XPER, XRN, XYZ, ZIP, ZVIA
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage Apps: -2.9%w.w prior -6.4%; 30yr Rate 6.81% prior 6.76%
- ADP Employment: 44k vs. 70k cons., prior revised to 95k from 98k
- 9:45 Final S&P Global Services PMI: prior 53.6
- 10:00 ISM Services: vs. 54.5 cons., prior 54.0
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
Global:
- China Rating Dog Services: 50.4 vs. 53.7 cons., prior 54.1
- Final Japan Services PMI: 51.2 revised from 51.9
- Reserve Bank of India leaves rates unchanged at 5.25%
- Final India Services PMI: 53.3 revised from 53.1
- Final EU Services PMI: 51.3 revised from 51.2
- EU PPI: -0.3%/4.6% m.m/y.y vs. -0.3%/4.6% cons., prior 0.2%/5.9%
- Final Germany Services PMI: 49.8 revised from 49.6
- Final UK Services PMI: 52.1 revised from 51.8