STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/24/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 53,352 (+75), S&P 500 7,656 (-18), Russell 2000 2,993 (-25), NYSE FANG+ 18,308 (-63), ICE Brent Crude $91.93/barrel (-$2.46), Gold $4,691/oz (+$10), Bitcoin ~78.9k (+405)
MAC Desk Commentary:
 Despite a bounce on Friday, US equities ended the week lower. The S&P 500 drifted lower throughout the week breaking below 7,700 but holding above its rising 20d ma. The AI theme was under pressure weighing on info tech, industrials and utilities. The equal weight also ended in the red but did outperform. Only three sectors closed out the week in the green - energy and materials, following commodity strength, and healthcare which surged after the positive cancer trial results from Merck and Moderna.  The macro side of things was dominated by the Treasury Department announcing it would at least double the size of its treasury buyback operations to $4B. Secretary Bessent followed that up with a wide-ranging interview in which he discussed that program, the deficit, market interventions overall and previewed today’s Economic D-Day announcement of new, maximum-pressure sanctions on Iran.  Yields and commodities ended the week higher while the Dollar fell. Crypto mooned driven by a mix of a revival of the debasement trade, the push for Clarity/a regulatory framework in Washington and a massive liquidation of short positions sending both BTC and ETH up >20%.

This afternoon Treasury Secretary Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast, though we’re not sure if that was with a C or a K. Secretary Bessent entered his press conference shaking the Treasury Statement like a Polaroid picture, warning that any nation that helps Iran will be removed from the USD system. He said President Trump is making calls directly to world leaders with each country being given a defined timeline. The operation targets five sectors for potential secondary sanctions: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. He also said he expected a major financial institution to be sanctioned this week. The market response has reasonably muted. Oil prices were lower overnight giving back some of last week’s gains and are near session lows down ~2.5%. The USD index ticked up slightly while metals and crypto have pulled back from the morning highs.

The S&P 500 opened modestly lower, retesting last week’s low before bouncing back to unchanged. Since the press conference the index has started to roll over again currently trading just under its 20d ma (7,655). Hyperscalsers ex-Oracle are trading modestly higher helping the index outperform. Small/mid cap indices are down >0.5% sitting at session lows. One of the questions coming out of last week’s options expiration was whether the rolling off of positions would be a release valve for volatility, that has not been the case thus far but it could be a bit of a waiting game ahead this week’s major catalysts, key tech earnings on Wednesday evening and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium - or maybe everyone is just on vacation. The main topics of conversation over the weekend revolved around last week’s buyback announcement, AI, failed Canada trade talks and the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games. 
This morning CNBC reported that the Treasury could fund purchases from the Treasury General Account, which would give it much more fire power than the announced $4B. This is caused a flattening of the yield curve with 10/30yr yields down ~5bps. The US Dollar Index is higher with Dollar gains against most major currencies.

  • US 2yr -0bps to 4.23%, 5yr -2bps to 4.40%, 10yr -4bps to 4.70%, 30yr -5bps to 5.22%
  • USD index: +$0.23 to $98.96
US-Canadian trade talks failed to produce an agreement late Friday, so 50% tariffs on Canadian wine, hockey sticks, cement, paper and textiles will be implemented. It’s been widely noted that these tariffs impact only 5% of US purchases of Canadian goods. However, this morning President Trump said starting on January 1st there would also be 50% tariffs on Cars, Trucks , auto parts and steel. Auto related stocks moved lower on the announcement while steel stocks moved modestly higher. Not surprisingly given the long lead time before the deadline there is plenty of skepticism. Canadian retaliatory tariffs are scheduled to go into effect Sept 8, so there is still some time for negotiations. These include tariffs on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. Ontario’s Premier fired back with his own threats including cutting off electricity and critical minerals.  The Canadian Dollar is falling by ~0.6% versus the USD. Hence forth the MAC Desk will refer to these negotiations as the Loonie Tunes.
On the tech front,  the headlines over the weekend clearly skewed negative. There are reports that Nvidia will increase prices by >15% due to increasing memory costs, further adding to Capex spending bills. Which is also coming amidst some negative press suggesting that frontier models have been cutting prices and the most recent releases have been met with more tepid demand.  This is causing some rotation with hyperscalers that have been working on their own solutions to ween off of Nvidia products moving modestly higher (GOOG - TPUs, AMZN - Trainium, META- MTIA, MSFT - Maia). While companies that are more dependent on the Nvidia ecosystem, like neoclouds, are under some pressure.  Memory stocks are not benefitting from the Nvidia announcement amidst reports that the administration could allow Apple to source memory from Chinese suppliers. Info tech and industrials are two of the worst performing sectors in the S&P 500.

Defensive and yield oriented sectors are outperforming. There is pretty broad based strength within financials. Banks, insurance and payment processors that struggled last week are bouncing back. The cyrpto exposed stocks are giving back some of last week's gains.
Moving to the Robot Games it is clear the technology has come a long way, but it is also apparent that there is a long way to go. Robot folly videos are currently at the top of MAC Desk guilty pleasures (see below). Unitree, the recent China IPO was down >10% overnight. The robotics and vision technology theme has been very popular, most US stocks exposed to those themes are down between 2% - 5%. 
Asia was mostly lower overnight. The Nikkei fell 0.7% as the major tech names SoftBank, Advantest, and Kioxia fell 4-6%. In China, Shanghai slipped 0.6% while the Hang Seng dropped almost 2%. Alibaba fell ~9% in the local market following a $10.2B secondary offering, priced at an 8% discount to Friday’s close, to raise capital for its AI initiatives. AI model developers Z.AI and MiniMax were down 10%. South Korea’s KOSPI fell ~3%, weighed down by Samsung’s 9% drop after its capital return program, announced Friday post-local close, disappointed. European indices closed on either side of unchanged. Travel & Leisure/luxury, Miners and Media outperformed while Autos, Energy and Healthcare lagged.
Oil prices moved back to overnight lows following Bessent’s press conference currently down ~2.5%. US natural gas rallied overnight but gave up those gains since the open. Prices in Europe are up ~5%, Goldman Sachs warned that TTF could rise to €100/WMh this winter, up from ~€65 currently, if flow through Hormuz doesn’t normalize. Gold traded above $4,700 earlier but has pulled back about 1% from the highs. China’s Zijin Mining said its full year copper production could be lower than expected due to mine flooding. US copper prices are hovering around unchanged. Ag is mixed with corn trading near one-year highs. Last week sugar traded to the highest level since last summer and is holding those gains. Crypto has pulled back modestly from the morning’s high when Bitcoin tested 80k but the complex is holding on to last week’s +20% gains. 
Economic Data:
US:
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July): -0.08 vs prior 0.06
Global:
  • Singapore Core CPI y.y: 2.0% vs prior 1.6%
  • Mexico GDP June y.y: 2.8% vs prior 1.1% 

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