STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/14/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 52,486 (-13), S&P 500 7,552 (+36), Russell 2000 2,965 (+11), NYSE FANG+ 17,673 (+259), ICE Brent Crude $84.52/barrel (+$1.22), Gold $4,068/oz (+$62), Bitcoin ~64.5k (+2458)
  • Let the Earnings Season Games Begin!
  • Bank earnings strong but some negative pre-announcements
  • Inflation data improves
  • Tech bounces but breadth mixed
  • Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
  • Inside the ICE House
  • Episode 544: New York Giants' Kayvon Thibodeaux on Money, Mentorship, and the 2026 Season
  • ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
  • NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
  • Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Welcome to earnings season (which never seems to end these days)! As a quick plug if you missed it last night we published our MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar, check it out! Ahead of this week’s major catalysts markets moved lower yesterday. Oil rose sharply as US-Iran hostilities reignited over the weekend, leading President Trump to reinstate the blockade and launch the GOTHS (“Guardians of the Hormuz Strait”). The move oil along with hawkish comments from influential Fed Governor Waller sent Treasury yields higher. He suggested he would support a rate hike in July if today’s CPI report came in hot, putting an even bigger spotlight on today's release.

Markets swiftly priced in a nearly 50/50 probability for a hike in July. This had ramifications sending the dollar higher, precious metals/cyrpto sharply as well as long duration equities all sharply lower. The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 only closed slightly to the downside with energy, defensive/yield-oriented sectors and financials moving higher. Small and mid-cap stocks were under a bit more pressure, but the real weakness was in tech and other speculative/thematic areas of the market. The S&P 500 fell just under 1% while the NYSE Semiconductor index was down nearly 5%. The tech weakness was well underway by the time Waller spoke partially an after shock from overseas weakness with memory stocks in South Korea falling sharply overnight, triggering yet another local market-wide circuit breaker.

Markets in Asia stabilized last night with S&P futures trading on either side of unchanged ahead of financial earnings and the inflation data despite oil prices continuing to move higher - as the US and Iran exchanged fire. Pretty much across the board the financial earnings were strong but right around 7:00 the complexion of the morning changed a bit after IBM negatively pre-announced taking the stock sharply lower. The company noted customers shifted spending at the end of June from its mainframe and infrastructure products to servers, storage and memory products to secure capacity and get ahead of price increases. The news sent software and consulting stocks sharply lower in the pre-market. That shifting of demand dynamic will be something to watch throughout earnings season (briefly discussed in our preview). The rising memory/component costs also showed up in Ericsson (>-10%) earnings, which noted this will weigh on profitability in the back half of the year and into 2027.

Interestingly, ahead of the inflation data, despite the move in oil, Treasury yields were down 2-3bps, the USD index was modestly lower and precious metals were recouping some of yesterday’s losses. The CPI print came in cooler than expected. Headline was down 0.4% and moderated to 3.5% from last month both 0.3% lower than expectations driven by a decline in oil prices while food was up 0.2% in line with last month. Core was flat m/m moderating to 2.6% annually both 0.2% below estimates. There was disinflation across apparel, medical care commodities/services and transportation services while shelter also moderated highlighting that the cooler print was not all energy. The data immediately reversed the hiking bias priced in yesterday after Waller’s comments.

The front end of the curve quickly fell ~10bps but has moved a bit off the lows. The move at the long end was more muted. The USD index fell to ~$100.40 at the lows but has reversed about half of its move as well. Fed Chair Warsh testified before the House today he reaffirmed the commitment to delivering price stability but there was not too much else notable or market moving. It took well over an hour for anyone to even ask about the CPI data because its much more important to catch a soundbite. Anyway, his response was “there might be some who look at this morning's data and say, 'Well, mission accomplished, everything is swell.' That is not my view.”

  • US 2yr -9bps to 4.20%, 5yr -6bps to 4.32%, 10yr -4bps to 4.58%, 30yr -2bps to 5.09%
  • USD index: -$0.32 to $100.72
S&P futures moved modestly into positive territory after the data and the index has traded in a less than 0.5% range throughout the day holding on to modest gains. Much of the underlying sector level activity is the opposite of yesterday. Small and midcap indices are recouping some of yesterday’s losses.
Bank earnings are the other major storyline today. The group had solid results, beating top and bottom estimates, with no signs of credit stress and healthy views on the economy (some details below). Overall management commentary has been cautiously optimistic. Jamie Dimon shifted from weather to tectonic plate references. Most of the stocks initially traded lower but it is now a mixed bag Goldman is the standout to the upside with very strong FICC results relative to peers. JPM/BAC are both slightly higher. Citi is getting hit its equities franchise beat estimates but wasn’t as strong as the competition. Wells Fargo is modestly lower.

  • Goldman Sachs: “Momentum has accelerated throughout our businesses” according to CEO David Solomon. Equities trading rose 72%, FICC jumped 32%
  • JP Morgan: Equities trading rose 86%, FICC grew 6%. CEO Jamie Dimon noted: “the U.S. economy has demonstrated notable resiliency this year..” while adding his traditional words  of caution: “several risks are shifting below the surface like tectonic plates, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.”
  • Wells Fargo : “Consumer and commercial credit quality remained strong across all portfolios and net loan charge-offs declined 10bp from a year ago.” Additionally, “consumers and businesses remain very strong.”
  • Citigroup Equities trading rose 45%, FICC 7%.
  • Bank of America:  Equities trading rose 70% while FICC grew 9%. The company also noted a “healthy economic backdrop and resilient consumer and businesses

Within the S&P 500 only 4 of 11 sectors are higher with dec outpacing adv by nearly 2:1. Info tech is leading to the upside up ~1.5% with semis and memory stocks recouping some of yesterday’s selloff. It’s noteworthy that New York State became the first state to issue a moratorium on large scale data center development. NIMBY could be a powerful movement for the AI Bear case as the election cycle heats up.  The software complex moved sharply lower at the open but many of the stocks quickly recovered. Cybersecurity names are now up >5%. Comm services are also up ~1% but that is all Meta/Google while media and telecom stocks are under pressure. 

On the downside healthcare is the big underperformer after HCA preannounced, beating top and bottom results but moving guidance lower on a negative mix shift from higher uninsured patient volumes and lower surgery volumes. This is weighing heavily on medtech and equipment stocks . Biogen is also down >5% after a data update on its Alzheimer’s program.  
Oil prices have pulled back from the overnight higher. ICE Brent is trading $84.50 after briefly breaking above the 50/100d ma’s ~86.50 earlier. US gas a little lower while European gas is higher again. Metals were modestly higher into the CPI data, took a leg up after the data but have given back about half of that. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving higher. Bitcoin is testing its 50d ma and early July highs just under 65k. Ethereum moved through 1,800 hitting its highest level since late May. 
With a quiet calendar in the region, European indices closed slightly higher recouping overnight losses after the US data. Miners and energy stocks are among the leaders. Asian markets bounced back into the green overnight after Monday’s tech-led selloff. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.7% with gains broadly dispersed, though tech lagged again. The government is planning to develop a communication network to support 10K autonomous vehicles in the country by 2030, according to press reports. China’s markets bounced as well. Imports and exports beat estimates in the latest trade data, and the trade surplus reached its second highest reading ever. Its notable that imports were up strongly despite crude imports nearing 10-year lows due to the Iran conflict. 
Earnings:
After-Market (Mon): AERO, FBK
Pre-Market: BAC, C, CRMT, FAST, GS, JPM, WFC
After-Market: AEHR, EQBK

Economic Data:
US:
  • CPI m.m / y.y: -0.4% / 3.5% vs -0.1% / 3.8% cons, prior 0.5% / 4.2%
  • Core: 0.0% / 2.6% / vs 0.2% / 2.8% cons, prior 0.2% / 2.9%
  • NFIB Business Optimism: 97.4 vs 95.6 cons, prior 95.3
  • ADP Weekly employment change: 19.75K vs prior 21.0K

Global:
  • China Imports: 36.0% vs 24% cons, prior 27.4%
  • China Exports: 27.0% vs 18.2% cons, prior 19.4%
  • China Trade Balance: $125.6B vs $120.6B cons, prior $105.4B
  • Germany Wholesale Prices m.m: -0.7% vs 0.5% cons, prior -0.6% 

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