STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 4/20/26 (a/o 9:00am)
Good morning,
On Friday reports of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil tumbling and the S&P 500 to its third straight day of record highs. The week’s 4.5% gain also made it three straight weeks of 3%+ gains, after five straight weeks of declines. Follow-up reports showed that the Strait may not be as open as hoped for, however, and the Iran news flow around the situation continues to zig-zag. The IRGC attacked two ships in the Strait and the US then seized an Iranian-flagged ship that tried to breach the blockade. Over the weekend President Trump said a second round of talks would take place in Pakistan on Tuesday, while also warning of airstrikes on infrastructure if a deal wasn’t accepted. In today’s early morning hours Iran’s Foreign Minister Baghaei said there was no plan for a second round of talks, but the AP reported a little later that Iran was in fact willing to attend a second round of talks. The current ceasefire is scheduled to expire on 4/22. The uncertainty around Hormuz and a second round of negotiations have put a bid back into crude this morning, which is weighing on equity futures. The S&P is currently down ~0.4% but off its lows.
Treasury yields are 2-3bp higher out to the 10y while the 30y is flat. The US Dollar Index is back above 98 and testing resistance at its 200d ~98.35. The UAE has proactively reached out to the US Treasury about an FX swap line in case financial stress increases in the country according to the WSJ.
There’s no major US economic data today. The US-Mexico-Canada trade treaty (USMCA) is up for a joint review in July. Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who has been relatively quiet over the past couple of months, is getting things warmed up. On Friday he slammed Canada like he was a Team USA fan in the upper deck during the Gold Medal game, saying during a conference that “They Suck”. In corporate news, Building supply distributor QXO is buying TopBuild for $17B. A WSJ article spotlighted Salesforce founder Marc Benioff’s view of how AI is making the company, and software in general, more formidable, and not the existential threat of the SAAS-pocolypse. American Airlines has rejected United Air’s merger overtures, according to the WSJ.
European equities are down ~1% with the Iran uncertainty weighing on equities. Germany’s PPI was sharply higher in March Japan’s Nikkei ended Monday up 0.6%. Tech was among the leading groups. Aluminum shortages are becoming more of an issue, especially for the auto makers, due to the Middle East disruptions. In China, both the Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes rose 0.8%. The PBOC left its LPRs unchanged, as expected. A Bloomberg story noted the growing global popularity of China’s AI models and investor enthusiasm for the companies developing them.
Crude gapped up from Friday’s decline as Iran uncertainty picked up over the weekend. Precious metals and copper are lower though gold is off its worst level. Crypto is lower with Bitcoin down 3% from Friday, having slipped lower after making a run at its 100d ma ~78.8K on Friday. A $300m exploit of the ether holdings of Kelp DAO is not helping the complex (Eth down 5%), though negotiations for the CLARITY act were reported to be progressing.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: BOH, CLF
After-Market: AGNC, ALK, R, STLD, WTFC, ZION
Pre-Market (Tues): CBSH, DGX, DHI, DHR, EFX, GE, GPC, HAL, MMM, MSCI, NOC, NTRS, RTX, SYF, TSCO, UNH, VMI
Economic Data:
US:
On Friday reports of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil tumbling and the S&P 500 to its third straight day of record highs. The week’s 4.5% gain also made it three straight weeks of 3%+ gains, after five straight weeks of declines. Follow-up reports showed that the Strait may not be as open as hoped for, however, and the Iran news flow around the situation continues to zig-zag. The IRGC attacked two ships in the Strait and the US then seized an Iranian-flagged ship that tried to breach the blockade. Over the weekend President Trump said a second round of talks would take place in Pakistan on Tuesday, while also warning of airstrikes on infrastructure if a deal wasn’t accepted. In today’s early morning hours Iran’s Foreign Minister Baghaei said there was no plan for a second round of talks, but the AP reported a little later that Iran was in fact willing to attend a second round of talks. The current ceasefire is scheduled to expire on 4/22. The uncertainty around Hormuz and a second round of negotiations have put a bid back into crude this morning, which is weighing on equity futures. The S&P is currently down ~0.4% but off its lows.
Treasury yields are 2-3bp higher out to the 10y while the 30y is flat. The US Dollar Index is back above 98 and testing resistance at its 200d ~98.35. The UAE has proactively reached out to the US Treasury about an FX swap line in case financial stress increases in the country according to the WSJ.
- US 2yr +3bps to 3.73%, 5yr +2bps to 3.86%, 10yr +2bps to 4.26%, 30yr -0bps to 4.89%
- USD index: +$0.16 to $98.06
There’s no major US economic data today. The US-Mexico-Canada trade treaty (USMCA) is up for a joint review in July. Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who has been relatively quiet over the past couple of months, is getting things warmed up. On Friday he slammed Canada like he was a Team USA fan in the upper deck during the Gold Medal game, saying during a conference that “They Suck”. In corporate news, Building supply distributor QXO is buying TopBuild for $17B. A WSJ article spotlighted Salesforce founder Marc Benioff’s view of how AI is making the company, and software in general, more formidable, and not the existential threat of the SAAS-pocolypse. American Airlines has rejected United Air’s merger overtures, according to the WSJ.
European equities are down ~1% with the Iran uncertainty weighing on equities. Germany’s PPI was sharply higher in March Japan’s Nikkei ended Monday up 0.6%. Tech was among the leading groups. Aluminum shortages are becoming more of an issue, especially for the auto makers, due to the Middle East disruptions. In China, both the Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes rose 0.8%. The PBOC left its LPRs unchanged, as expected. A Bloomberg story noted the growing global popularity of China’s AI models and investor enthusiasm for the companies developing them.
Crude gapped up from Friday’s decline as Iran uncertainty picked up over the weekend. Precious metals and copper are lower though gold is off its worst level. Crypto is lower with Bitcoin down 3% from Friday, having slipped lower after making a run at its 100d ma ~78.8K on Friday. A $300m exploit of the ether holdings of Kelp DAO is not helping the complex (Eth down 5%), though negotiations for the CLARITY act were reported to be progressing.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: BOH, CLF
After-Market: AGNC, ALK, R, STLD, WTFC, ZION
Pre-Market (Tues): CBSH, DGX, DHI, DHR, EFX, GE, GPC, HAL, MMM, MSCI, NOC, NTRS, RTX, SYF, TSCO, UNH, VMI
Economic Data:
US:
- None
- China 1/5yr LPRs decision: Unchanged as expected
- Germany March PPI m.m: 2.5% vs cons 1.4%, prior -0.5%
- Canada CPI m.m / y.y: 0.9% / 2.4% vs 1.0% / 2.5% cons, prior 0.5% / 1.8%
By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates. Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.
Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.
© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates. For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.