STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 6/24/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,803 (+136), S&P 500 7,353 (-13), Russell 2000 2,983 (+7), NYSE FANG+ 16,617 (-116), ICE Brent Crude $73.88/barrel (-$3.20), Gold $3,979/oz (-$170), Bitcoin ~59.3k (-3194)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday a global tech rout sent equity markets lower. The S&P 500 declined 1.4% as memory, semis and mega-cap tech stocks fell sharply. The index traded within 10pts of the rising 50d moving average around the open but recouped some of the initial losses as defensive/yield oriented and areas of the market that have underperformed (i.e. healthcare) moved higher. Oil prices continued to move lower but that didn’t provide much of a tailwind for Treasuries. The USD rally picked up steam after breaking out of the year long range and weighed heavily on the metals complex.

Ahead of Micron earnings there was a modest bounce in tech stocks overnight. Futures traded on either side of unchanged for much of the overnight session. Oil prices continued to move lower with ICE Brent breaking below the 200d ma this finally woke up Treasury markets which have shrugged off the recent move lower, as we discussed last week (see correlation between 2yr yield/ICE Brent chart below). Ahead of the open Treasuries started to rally and that has accelerated throughout the session with yields down 5-10bps across the curve. This helped equities move higher after the open with a continuation of the rotation. The tech bounce was tepid and since the European close the sector has now turned lower again. As we head to print the S&P 500 has moved into the red however, the equal-weight, Dow Jones Industrial Average and small/midcap indices are still holding on to gains. The USD rally continues which is causing a puke in metals and crypto complexes  both of which are either breaking or testing their recent lows. 
The only economic data today was housing related. There was a slight uptick in mortgage apps though new home sales came in below expectations falling to 580k from 626k last month.  Also related to housing the House passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act after it cleared the Senate earlier this week however, President Trump said he will not sign this bill until the Save America Act is passed. KB Homes is ripping after its report with markets focused on improving margins and backlog in the back half of the year. These factors along with the Treasury rally are helping housing stocks move higher (XHB +5%).  

Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC, where he talked up a strong dollar, expects non-inflationary economic acceleration and praised new Fed chair Warsh’s elimination of forward guidance, among other topics. Treasury yields are following up yesterday’s modest decline with more pronounced downside action. However, this afternoon’s 5yr auction tailed pricing at 4.2% above the when issued market of 4.193% while bid-to-cover and indirect bids were slightly below recent auctions. The US Dollar continues to strengthen.

  • US 2yr -6bps to 4.14%, 5yr -9bps to 4.18%, 10yr -10bps to 4.40%, 30yr -9bps to 4.85%
  • USD index: +$0.22 to $101.39
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight after the drubbing yesterday. The Nikkei was the exception falling 0.9% with weakness in financials, manufacturing and some tech while communication services and healthcare outperformed. The BOJ minutes showed broad support for further hikes. South Korea bounced back 3% after falling 10% in the previous session. Samsung jumped nearly 10% on reports of a potential large buyback while SK Hynix was up about half that much. Central bankers continued to call for tighter policy. MSCI kept the country’s market classification as “emerging market” which was expected. In Australia headline inflation data came in better than expected driven by a decline in fuel prices but other measures came in a touch hotter than consensus. Markets in China/Hong Kong were modestly higher. “A rate cut could still be on the table” according to a PBOC official. European markets were mixed but ended near their best levels. Germany’s DAX is underperformed as Rheinmetall fell nearly 20% after Germany cancelled plans to build six warships. France outperformed as luxury stocks, which have been a drag recently, bounced.
The USD wrecking ball is making its way through the commodity/crypto complex. Brent crude is down another 3.5% with the August contract slipping below its 200d ma ~$75. Yesterday’s API data showed a crude draw of only 765K, well below the 8.3M draw last week, chalked up to draws from the SPR and lower exports. Inventory’s have often seen draws of 4-9M since mid-April. The DOE inventory data showed a ~6ml barrel draw but builds in both distillates and gasoline. President Trump has threatened a DOJ investigation as he is frustrated that prices at the pump are not falling faster. US natural gas is slightly higher while European gas is a bit lower. Metals are getting hammered. Gold is down ~3% breaking last week’s low (~4,040) and briefly breaking below 4k. Silver and other precious metals are down >5%, while copper is down as well. The crypto complex is under significant pressure as well with majors down ~5% but holding above the recent lows. STRC and MSTR are still in the cross hairs down ~10%. 
Within the S&P 500 6 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Energy is leading to the downside falling over 2% driven by the commodity drop. Tech tried to hold up early on but has faded. New public AI chip maker Chip maker Cerebras (->15%) beat top line and guided above consensus but is getting hit hard on margin concerns. REITs are nearly 1% with weakness in tower stocks. Prologis is also down >3% after disclosing it offered to buy London-based SEGRO for $17B, but was rejected. Financials are also down modestly but the underlying action is mixed. Crypto related are leading to the downside. Alternative asset managers are also under pressure amidst more reporting about redemption request caps and a disappointing realization update from Blackstone.

Consumer discretionary and industrials are leading to the upside with housing and travel related stocks rallying sharply. Within the latter defense stocks are ahead of President Trump’s meeting with industry executives. FedEx is selling off despite results that looked solid. Communication services are hovering around unchanged helped by a bounce in Alphabet which will replace Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The big events over the next 24 hours are Micron earnings and the Bank Stress Tests after the close and tomorrow morning's economic data which includes personal income/spending, PCE and claims.
Earnings:
After-Market: FUL, JEF, MLKN, MU, WS
Pre-Market: AYI, BB, CMC, DRI, MKC, SNX, WGO, WSE
After-Market: FDXF

Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage Apps: -0.6% w.w vs prior -3.4%
  • Refis: +3.0% vs prior -4.5%
  • 30yr Rate 6.59% prior 6.6%
  • New Home Sales: 580k vs. 625k cons., prior 626k
  • 4:00 Fed Bank Stress Tests
Global:
  • Australia inflation: -0.7% / 4.0% m.m / y.y vs. -0.3% / 4.4% cons., prior 0.4% / 4.2%
  • Germany Ifo Current Conditions: 87.0 vs. 86.4 cons., prior 86.1
  • Germany Ifo Expectations: 84.1 vs. 85 cons. prior 83.9

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