Good morning,
 
Yesterday was a wildly volatile session. Following another round of tech headlines (OpenAI filing, Anthropic Mythos release) and deal announcements (AVGO/APO/BX), the sector was once again leading to the upside after the open after. However, that was like Stephon Castle head fake and the sector came under significant pressure, pushing the S&P 500 below Friday’s lows. Tech and other thematic/speculative favorites lead to the downside, raising some question as to how much of this was traders making room for Friday’s SpaceX IPO. Not helping sentiment was an announcement by data center developer Crusoe that it was pausing its project in Wyoming at the request of the undisclosed customer. To put the weakness in perspective, the NYSE Semi index traded in >10% intraday range down 8.5% at the lows before ending down 1.6%. President Trump’s post on social media in the middle of the day, suggesting a retaliation for the downed helicopter sent markets to fresh lows. However, shortly thereafter a NYT story suggesting discussions about a 15yr enrichment suspension helped markets bounce. A couple of notes - despite the headlines oil prices ended down ~3% holding just above the mid-May lows and never sniffed turning positive. It is also worth noting that even at the lows breadth within the market was positive. The S&P 500 ended down 0.3% but the equal-weight and small/midcap indices ended up ~1% excluding the R2K which was dragged down by momentum/thematic favorites like space, nuclear, quantum and rare earths.
 
Futures were drifting lower overnight and accelerated to the downside this morning as President Trump’s Iran rhetoric turned more hostile again. Ahead of CPI tech headlines continued to dominate the press. There are some more potential circular financing deals and capital raises - OpenAI is reportedly negotiating a 20yr lease of a 10GW datacenter in Ohio with Nvidia potentially involved in the financing. Supermicro is the most recent tech company to raise capital ($7B) while neo-data center co.’s HUT/APLD both closed previously announced financings. The supply has become a hot topic, a FT story notes, “Goldman Sachs estimates net supply of equity in the US — measured by new shares hitting the market less equity removed by buybacks or companies going private — will be almost flat in 2026, having been in negative territory since 2003.”
 

 
Equity futures have bounced back after CPI came in slightly better than expected. Headline was inline up 0.5% and 4.2% m.m/y.y, driven primarily by energy while food moderated. Core was up 0.2%, a tenth better than expected with y/yin inline up 2.9% up from 2.8% last month. Last month there was a big jump in shelter related to the government shutdown which reversed this month. New vehicles, medical care commodities and transportation services driven by declines in vehicle insurance. Treasury yields are about 3bps off the overnight highs hovering around unchanged. The USD index tested $100 again overnight but has pulled back modestly since the data. S&P futures are down ~0.5%, cutting losses in half. Russell 2k futures are a touch lower after turning slightly positive. Once again it’s worth noting, despite all the rhetoric oil prices are up less than 1%.
 

 
Government Yields
 
  *   US 2yr -1bps to 4.12%, 5yr +0bps to 4.25%, 10yr +0bps to 4.53%, 30yr +1bps to 5.01%
  *   USD index: +$0.01 to $99.90
 
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight with South Korea leading to the downside amidst the continued tech volatility. The Nikkei was down nearly 2%. Softbank fell  ~8% after Bloomberg reported that its attempt to secure a $6B margin loan backed by OpenAI shares stalled. The demand in the 30yr auction was weak but yields were contained. China inflation data was about inline with estimates. Indices in China/Hong Kong ended with modest losses. Major European indices were down between 0.5% - 1% at the lows with multiple markets testing their respective 50d ma’s, but have bounced back to around unchanged levels after the US inflation data.
 

 
Commodities are mixed. Energy prices are moving modestly higher. Metals have been under pressure for the last couple of days with both gold and silver breaking below their respective 200d ma’s. That weakness is continuing this morning with gold down ~2.5% at $4,175 while silver is down ~1%. Ag is moving higher. Crypto was under pressure again overnight but also has improved since the data with only modest declines.
 

Trucking stocks are getting hit hard in the pre-market after Amazon announced it would expand its less-than-truckload freight offering as part of its Amazon Supply Chain Services. Chewy, Cracker Barrel and Casey’s Stores are all trading higher after reporting earnings. Oracle reports after the close.
 
Earnings:
After-Market: BARK, CASY, CBRL. CNM, DOMO, LAKE, SKILL
Pre-Market: CHWY, JILL
After-Market: NAVN, ORCL, OXM, SFIX
 
Economic Data:
US:

• Mortgage Apps: 10.8% w/w prior -2.5%
  • 30yr Rate 6.6% prior 6.57%
• CPI: 0.5%/4.2% m.m/y.y vs. 0.5%/4.2% cons., prior 0.6%/3.8%
• Core-CPI: 0.2%/2.9% m.m/y.y vs. 0.3%/2.9% cons., prior 0.4"
• 10:30 Oil Inventories

Global: 

• China CPI: -0.1%/1.2% m.m/y.y vs. -0.2%/1.3% cons., ,prior 0.3%/1.2% 
• China PPI: 3.9% vs. 3.9% cons., prior 2.8% 
• China Vehicle Sales: -2.1% prior -2.5%