STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA- Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 11/12/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday bond markets were closed for Veterans Day, but equity markets rallied the troops to a positive day. The S&P 500 ended up 1.3% reversing most of the post-election selloff with the index closing right at its 20/100d ma’s. The AI complex drove much of the strength on the heels of Coreweave earnings, positive news flow related to the Anthropic IPO and OpenAI growth. The equal-weight version of the index trailed the market cap weighted index closing up 0.8%. Healthcare and yield/interest rate sensitive pockets of the market pulled back.
Futures have turned lower throughout the morning. Nvidia was the focal point as the WSJ reported that the board met to discuss the fate of CEO Jensen Huang as a second affair with an employee, came to light. The press release just hit that he would resign, and CFO Colette Kress would serve as interim CEO during the search process. Coming into today the stock was down nearly 30% from its early October high and is off ~10% in the pre-market. In response, AMD and Broadcom have both moved up ~3% while Google and Amazon have also ticked up given their chip businesses. The rest of the AI complex are under pressure. Neocloud, Nebius (-15%), reported this morning the company highlighted the strong demand and improving economics. Like Coreweave the company highlighted the pickup in customer prepayments helping to ease funding concerns. However, it increased Capex guidance sharply and lowered 2026 revenue guidance due to third party capacity delays. S&P futures extended the morning losses after President Trump said we don’t need a deal with Iran which sent oil prices higher, but we are off the lows. S&P futures are down ~0.6%.
Yesterday bond markets were closed but Treasury futures pointed to a continued move higher at the front end of the curve after Tuesday’s hot CPI report and hawkish Fed commentary. That is continuing this morning post the Trump headlines. 2yr yields are up ~8bps from Tuesday’s close (+4bps yest/2bps today). The move at the long end is more muted. This morning initial claims ticked up modestly to 200k while continuing claims ticked just under 1.7ml.
European indices are trading marginally higher and have come off their highs. Retail, Insurers and Healthcare are leading while Tech and Basic Resources are lagging. Germany’s DAX gapped up to new record high but is back to around unchanged. UK GDP surprised to the upside. Asian equites were broadly lower. The Nikkei fell 0.7% with major tech names down 3-5%. The index approached a test of resistance at its 200d ma but pulled back to finish at the lows. New accounting rules should make it easier for Japan’s big life insurance companies to hold JGB’s. The yen has been steadily weakening since the early September interventions and is approaching 160 again, which could trigger another round of FX intervention. Chinese equities were lower as well. Alibaba fell 7% locally and is down about 30% over the past 3 months. Chinese semiconductors are benefiting from Nvidia’s issues as well as the US Commerce Dept. reportedly crafting new rules to block Chinese access to US chips. Cambricon gained 8% today after yesterday’s 7% bounce. Meanwhile US container imports saw their highest volume on record in Descartes’ Global Shipping Report.
Oil prices are now up ~1%. US and European nat gas are both higher extending this week’s gains. The metals complex continues to be under pressure. Yesterday gold broke back below 4k and is down another 2% today trading ~3,900. Crypto also continues to be under pressure. Bitcoin is down ~2% breaking below its 200d ma (~73k). Ethereum is down a similar amount testing 2k. Ag is pulling back modestly giving back some of this week’s gains.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: EPC, EROC, EYE, FRMI, MBGL, NBIS, TE, WWW, YETI
After-Market: AMAT, CBRS, CSCO, FLO
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday bond markets were closed for Veterans Day, but equity markets rallied the troops to a positive day. The S&P 500 ended up 1.3% reversing most of the post-election selloff with the index closing right at its 20/100d ma’s. The AI complex drove much of the strength on the heels of Coreweave earnings, positive news flow related to the Anthropic IPO and OpenAI growth. The equal-weight version of the index trailed the market cap weighted index closing up 0.8%. Healthcare and yield/interest rate sensitive pockets of the market pulled back.
Futures have turned lower throughout the morning. Nvidia was the focal point as the WSJ reported that the board met to discuss the fate of CEO Jensen Huang as a second affair with an employee, came to light. The press release just hit that he would resign, and CFO Colette Kress would serve as interim CEO during the search process. Coming into today the stock was down nearly 30% from its early October high and is off ~10% in the pre-market. In response, AMD and Broadcom have both moved up ~3% while Google and Amazon have also ticked up given their chip businesses. The rest of the AI complex are under pressure. Neocloud, Nebius (-15%), reported this morning the company highlighted the strong demand and improving economics. Like Coreweave the company highlighted the pickup in customer prepayments helping to ease funding concerns. However, it increased Capex guidance sharply and lowered 2026 revenue guidance due to third party capacity delays. S&P futures extended the morning losses after President Trump said we don’t need a deal with Iran which sent oil prices higher, but we are off the lows. S&P futures are down ~0.6%.
Yesterday bond markets were closed but Treasury futures pointed to a continued move higher at the front end of the curve after Tuesday’s hot CPI report and hawkish Fed commentary. That is continuing this morning post the Trump headlines. 2yr yields are up ~8bps from Tuesday’s close (+4bps yest/2bps today). The move at the long end is more muted. This morning initial claims ticked up modestly to 200k while continuing claims ticked just under 1.7ml.
- US 2yr +6bps to 4.82%, 5yr +6bps to 4.88%, 10yr +4bps to 5.04%, 30yr +2bps to 5.38%
- USD index: +$0.73 to $102.86
European indices are trading marginally higher and have come off their highs. Retail, Insurers and Healthcare are leading while Tech and Basic Resources are lagging. Germany’s DAX gapped up to new record high but is back to around unchanged. UK GDP surprised to the upside. Asian equites were broadly lower. The Nikkei fell 0.7% with major tech names down 3-5%. The index approached a test of resistance at its 200d ma but pulled back to finish at the lows. New accounting rules should make it easier for Japan’s big life insurance companies to hold JGB’s. The yen has been steadily weakening since the early September interventions and is approaching 160 again, which could trigger another round of FX intervention. Chinese equities were lower as well. Alibaba fell 7% locally and is down about 30% over the past 3 months. Chinese semiconductors are benefiting from Nvidia’s issues as well as the US Commerce Dept. reportedly crafting new rules to block Chinese access to US chips. Cambricon gained 8% today after yesterday’s 7% bounce. Meanwhile US container imports saw their highest volume on record in Descartes’ Global Shipping Report.
Oil prices are now up ~1%. US and European nat gas are both higher extending this week’s gains. The metals complex continues to be under pressure. Yesterday gold broke back below 4k and is down another 2% today trading ~3,900. Crypto also continues to be under pressure. Bitcoin is down ~2% breaking below its 200d ma (~73k). Ethereum is down a similar amount testing 2k. Ag is pulling back modestly giving back some of this week’s gains.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: EPC, EROC, EYE, FRMI, MBGL, NBIS, TE, WWW, YETI
After-Market: AMAT, CBRS, CSCO, FLO
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 200k vs. 195k cons., prior 189k
- Continuing Claims: 1.697ml vs. 1.718ml cons,. prior 1.71ml
- 10:00 Existing Home Sales
- 12:00pm EIA oil inventories
- 2:00pm Monthly Budget statement
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
- Fed Speakers: Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:30am), Daly (1:10pm), Williams (6:30pm)
- UK GDP QoQ: 0.7% vs. 0.7% cons., prior 0.5%
- UK Industrial Production: 0.3% vs. -0.3% cons., prior 0.7%
- India Inflation: 6.09% vs. 5.93% cons., prior 5.54%
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