STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking- Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 6/30/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 52,338 (+155), S&P 500 7,493 (+52), Russell 2000 3,028 (+18), NYSE FANG+ 16,905 (+102), ICE Brent Crude $72.98/barrel (-$0.17), Gold $4,045/oz (+$6), Bitcoin ~58.3k (-2070)
  • Happy Month/Quarter/Half End
  • Q2 Ending with Double Digits gains across the board
  • Semis back in the lead
  • Yields modestly higher
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  • Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
On Friday the S&P 500 closed below its 50d ma for the first time since early April while most other major US indices were holding around all-time highs - highlighting the underperformance of the mega-cap tech stocks amidst increasing concerns around AI Capex spending. Yesterday there was a reprieve in that dynamic with tech bouncing back while the rest of the market ended around unchanged. There were a flurry of headlines across the media and telecom while Alphabet’s 5% gain provided a solid boost to the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it debuted in the index. There was a risk on tone with defensive/yield-oriented sectors, which had been outperforming recently, pulling back. Some the thematic favorites rallied with space leading the way after the Rocket Lab deal to buy Iridium Communication. Crypto also stabilized after Strategy announced several initiatives, including some to support the STRC perpetual preferred.

Today is month and quarter-end so we could elevated volumes and volatility. It was a reasonably quiet overnight session as thoughts about barbeques and fireworks start to detract from investor attention spans. The US envoy landed in Doha but reportedly will not be meeting with Iranian officials. From a market perspective Iran has clearly become a secondary concern as oil prices have moved sharply lower over the last few months. As of mid-day markets are looking to end the quarter on a solid note. Semis have outperformed across pretty much every time frame this year so it is fitting that they are leading the way again today. Otherwise the sector performance is very similar to yesterday. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 52pts to 7,492 (+0.7%), the Dow is up 166pts to 52,349 (+0.3%), while the Russell 2k is up 18pts to 3,028 (+0.6%).

There are double digit gains across most major US indices in Q2, but keep in mind that markets were at YTD lows right at the end of the first quarter. Traders were mispositioned for a de-escalation in Iran and a phenomenal earnings season added to the scramble. To start the quarter pretty much everything rallied but as we moved into May tech took over the leadership position as yields started to move higher despite oil prices topping out. In the middle of the month the tech trade also began to evolve with investors following the money - punishing the hyperscaler AI Capex spending which was devouring their cash flow and moving into the beneficiaries semi and memory stocks. That continued throughout the month of June as you can see with the nearly 20% outperformance of the ICE Semi Index relative to the NYSE FANG+ during the month. In June the breadth improved with small and midcaps outperforming as healthcare, industrials and financials were the best performing sectors.
This morning there was a flurry of economic data which is the appetizer for the employment report on Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend. The JOLTS job openings were pretty much inline with last month’s reading ~7.6ml and slightly better than expected. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence ticked up from last month but didn’t improve as much as consensus hoped for. Chicago PMI missed expectations falling to 56.7 from 62.7 last month. Despite some better than expected inflation data in Europe and expected buying from pension fund rebalancing Treasury yields are moving up a couple of basis points today. The USD index is modestly higher as the Yen is making new lows and intervention rumors swirl. The ECB’s Sintra conference is ongoing with investors waiting for the “Policy Panel” ahead of tomorrow’s US open which will feature BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde, BoC’s Macklem and Fed Chair Warsh. 

  • US 2yr +1bps to 4.13%, 5yr +3bps to 4.18%, 10yr +3bps to 4.41%, 30yr +3bps to 4.90%
  • USD index: +$0.07 to $100.95
It has been a rough month for commodities. Brent crude (August) is floating around unchanged, still below its 200d ma ~$75. It has fallen about 20% in June, helping equities. US Natural gas is higher today and around unchanged for the month though prices in Europe are lower. Precious metals have recouped overnight losses trading modestly in the green but are down double digits in June. Copper is also lower but has outperformed. Ag rallied today after the USDA released its quarterly planting and stock reports with tighter stocks offsetting increased planting.  Bitcoin and Ethereum are both down over 3% hovering just above their respective YTD lows . Strategy is down ~8% giving back most of yesterday’s rally. A consortium including Mastercard, Visa and Coinbase officially launched a new stablecoin called Open USD which is expected to be live later this year. This has been discussed in the press previously but is weighing on Circle which is down ~15%. 
European indices ended modestly higher. CPIs moved lower across the continent. Equities were higher in June with the STOXX 600 up over 2%. ASML rose 20% while SAP fell 11% in the month. Oil stocks were down high single digits but banks saw solid gains. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9% overnight and 6% in June. Kioixa and Tokyo Electron rose over 40% in the month, while SoftBank fell over 20% (after two straight months of 40%+ gains). The yen hit 162.50/$, the first time since 1986 when Wally Backman was hitting and playing second for the Mets, and was met with the usual verbal warnings from officials. China was mixed as Shanghai rose while Hong Kong fell. Hong Kong’s decline came despite the Hang Seng Tech index rising almost 2% with Tencent rising 2% and SMIC adding 5%. Hong Kong fell 9% in June with Alibaba down ~25%. Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs ticked higher, hovering just above the expansion level of 50. China will be removing export restrictions on certain products like refined oil as supplies recover. I had to check several times but South Korea’s Kospi ended June flat. It began the month at ~8500 . traded as high as ~9400, as low as 7400, and closed right back at ~8500.  
Earnings:
After-Market: NKE, PRGS, STZ
Pre-Market: FDS, GIS, MSM, UNF
After-Market: SBX

Economic Data:
US:
  • Case-Shiller Home Prices y.y: 1.1% vs 0.9% cons, prior 0.8%
  • NHFA House Price Index m.m: -0.1% vs 0.2% cons, prior 0.1%
  • Chicago PMI: 56.7 vs. 58.1 cons., prior 62.7
  • Consumer Confidence: 91.2 vs. 94.7 cons., prior 90.6
  • JOLTS Job Openings: 7.594mll vs. 7.3ml cons., prior 7.585ml
  • 4:30pm API Crude inventories  
Global:
  • Japan May Industrial Production m.m: 0.5% vs 1.1% cons, prior 0.5%
  • China Official Manufacturing June PMI: 50.3 vs 50.1 cons, prior 50.0
  • Non-manufacturing: 50.2 vs 49.9 cons, prior 50.1
  • Germany Retail Sales (May) m.m / y.y: 1.1% / 1.8% vs -0.1% / 0.0% cons, prior -0.4% / -0.6%
  • Germany Import Prices m.m: 0.7% vs 0.6% cons, prior 1.2%
  • Germany Unemployment: 6.3% vs 6.3$ cons, prior 6.3%
  • Germany CPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 2.3% vs 0.0% / 2.6% cons, prior -0.2% / 2.6% prior
  • Italy CPI m.m / y.y: 0.0% / 3.0% vs 0.1% / 3.1% cons, prior 0.4% / 3.2%
  • France CPI (June) m.m / y.y: -0.2% / 1.8% vs 0.0% / 2.1% cons, prior 0.1% /2.4%
  • France PPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 3.0% vs prior -2.0% / 2.3% 

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