STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 6/01/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,051 (+19), S&P 500 7,614 (+34), Russell 2000 2,918 (-1), NYSE FANG+ 9,970 (+205), ICE Brent Crude $95.03/barrel (+$3.91), Gold $4,517/oz (-$76), Bitcoin ~71.4k (-1968)
- More geopolitical back-and-forth
- Tech announcements, M&A making headlines
- Oil, yields higher
- S&P up but most sectors lower; Tech holding things up
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 535: Markel Insurance CEO Simon Wilson on AI, Specialty Risk, and Scaling Expertise
- ETF Central: FLX Networks Founder and CEO Brian Moran
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Delinquencies Hold Steady in April
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Last week, Iran optimism (or headline fatigue) helped major US indices continue to move higher as oil prices and yields backed off. The S&P 500 was up 1.4%, extending its winning streak to nine consecutive weeks. According to our research into the matter, that has only happened ten times. Tech continued to drive the gains. Software, which had been left for dead a couple of months ago, was the big outperformer as the IGV software ETF rose 8% for the week and gained over 20% in May after a solid round of earnings. That didn’t come at the expense of semis/memory though as the ICE Semin Index was up a similar amount and the DRAM ETF ripped 20%. Energy, consumer staples and yield-oriented sectors led to the downside for the week as oil fell and investors moved to higher-risk areas.
We’re still waiting for tangible progress in the Iran conflict. President Trump has reportedly requested some changes to an MOU and both sides exchanged fire over the weekend but the strikes were relatively limited (radar and drone sites by the US, Kuwaiti targets by Iran). The news caused Brent crude to bounce off Friday’s close ~$90. Right before the Open Iranian news sources reported that Iran halted talks with the US to protest continued Israeli operations in Lebanon. That sent oil and yields up further, taking S&P futures off their highs. The cash index opened around unchanged.
Equities moved up modestly from there before rates and oil came off their highs after Trump told CNBC he had not heard from Iran that talks were suspended, while Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Iran requested mediation to continue. Then, Trump posted that he spoke with both Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hezbollah and that each side won’t attach each other. The S&P is at its highs, up around 0.5%.The equal-weight is about inline and smaller caps are lagging.
Megacap tech is doing a lot of work. 6/11 sectors are down over 1%. Despite some headline-induced volatility oil is up today, pushing Energy towards the top of the sector leaderboard. Tech though is the best performer today as hardware names (ex-INTC and QCOM) see a tailwind from news Nvidia is launching an AI chip for PCs. Dell, HPQ and HPE are up 5-10%. Meanwhile software continues to get its groove back, as the IGV climbs +6%. CRM, ORCL, NOW all up ~10% as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dismissed AI disruption fears in his keynote at the Computex conference. In more news, Anthropic announced it has filed confidentially filed for its IPO.
Utilities are lagging with yields higher as well as weakness in CEG following a 11.0M share secondary (for holders). Consumer Discretionary is down sharply as well with retailers, autos and AMZN (-3%) under pressure.
Homebuilders are seeing modest gains on the heels of Berkshire Hathaway’s deal to buy home builder Taylor Morrison for ~$8.5B. Also in the Discretionary sector, gaming and travel names are higher after Barry Diller’s People Inc (fka IAC) is offering to buy the remaining ~75% of MGM it does not already own.
Data was relatively solid today. ISM Manufacturing accelerated from last month and beat estimates (54.0 vs 53.0), reaching its highest reading since May 2022. New Orders rose while the Prices index ticked down but remains very much in expansion. Commentary included the negative impact of the Iran war on oil prices (and prices in general) uncertainly and supply chains. Final S&P Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower from the flash reading.
April construction spending rose 0.4% m.m from March. Private single-family construction rose 1.4% m.m but fell 2.9% y.y. Power rose 0.6% and 6.0%, respectively.
Treasury yields are up 5bps at the front end on the rise in oil, along with the solid economic data. The US Dollar Index is up as well, continuing to trade between 99.0-99.5 over the past two weeks.
- US 2yr +5bps to 4.05%, 5yr +5bps to 4.19%, 10yr +4bps to 4.48%, 30yr +2bps to 4.99%
- USD index: +$0.27 to $99.12
European equities ended the day lower as markets closed before the more optimistic Iran headlines hit the tape. ECB commentary continues to lean towards a rate hike in June. Software names saw strength with SAP and Dassault up over 5%. German Retail sales fell from last month, about inline with estimates. UK housing prices declined more than expected from last month as well.
In Asia Japan’s Nikkei gained 1% overnight. Softbank jumped 14% and overtook Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company. The company is planning $88B, 5GW AI data center investments in France according to reports. Memory maker Kioxia rose 10% with Goldman Sachs upgrading to a Buy. MOF data showed a record amount of monthly yen intervention - $73.6B- between April 28 and May 27. However, the currency is almost back to ¥160/$, the threshold that set off the intervention. Capital spending was unchanged in Q1 year-over-year falling from Q4’s 6.5% increase and missing estimates of a 4.1% gain. China was mixed with Hang Seng up just under 1% and Shanghai slipping modestly. Mainland tech was lower (Cambricon -5%) while Hang Seng Tech saw gains (Tencent, Alibaba +2%). Official Manufacturing PMI of 50.0 ticked lower from last month but met expectations, while non-manufacturing improved and beat estimates. The private Manufacturing PMI reading (RatingDog) was lower than last month (51.8 vs 52.2) but slightly above expectations. 10y bond yields dropped to a ten-month low and “panda bond” issuance (RMB debt issued by non-Chinese companies) is on a record pace. South Korea is up ~4% with tailwinds from the multitude of Nvidia product announcement headlines.
Oil prices are up but are off the day’s highs. Brent fell below its 50d ma last week, rallied above it earlier today but is now trying to hold it as Iran headlines push the commodity around. US natural gas is down ~4%, giving back some of last week’s rally while European gas climbs 7%.
The metals complex is mixed. Gold is down about 2%, giving up much of Friday’s gain after tagging its 200d. Copper is outperforming up ~3%. Ag is lower with corn lagging as its weakness since the beginning of May continues.
Crypto continues to struggle as Congress tries to move the Clarity Act forward. Bitcoin is down ~3%, hovering above $70k after Strategy announced that it had sold 32 bitcoins to pay its preferred dividend. Pre-IPO perpetual markets continue to capture a lot of attention as big IPOs are lining upon the calendar.
Earnings:
After-Market: CRDO, HPE
Pre-Market (Tues): DCI, DG, GOTU, SIG, VSCO
After-Market (Tues): GTLB, PANW, ULTA
Economic Data:
US:
- Construction Spending: 0.4% vs 0.2% cons, prior 0.2% (revised down from 0.6%)
- ISM Manufacturing: 54.0 vs 53.0 cons, prior 52.7
- S&P Manufacturing PMI (final): 55.1 vs 55.3 flash
Global:
- China Rating Dog Manufacturing: 51.8 vs. 51.4 cons., prior 52.2
- Germany Retail Sales: -0.3% vs. -0.4% cons., prior -0.3%
- UK Home Prices: -0.6% vs. -0.1% cons., prior 0.4%
- India Industrial Production: 4.9% vs. 3.9% cons., prior 4.1%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 6/1/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
Good morning,
Last week, Iran optimism (or headline fatigue) helped major US indices continue to move higher as oil prices and yields backed off. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% extending its weekly winning streak to 9 consecutive weeks, which has only happened 10X since the inception of the index in 1957. The breadth beneath the surface was mixed with tech continuing to drive the gains. Last week software, which had been left for dead a couple of months ago, was the big outperformer with the IGV up 8% for the week and >20% in May after a solid round of earnings. That didn’t come at the expense of semis/memory with the ICE Semin Index up similar amounts over those time frames but also up massively YTD. For the week energy, consumer staples and yield oriented sectors led to the downside.
The weekend came and went with no resolution on the Iran front. President Trump has reportedly requested some changes to the MOU. The two sides have exchanged some fire over the weekend which is causing a bounce in oil prices and yields albeit modest in the context of last week’s move. US futures are mixed with S&P and Dow futures both modestly higher, with continued tech strength while R2K futures are pointing to a modestly lower open.
Last night Jensen Huang gave the keynote at Taiwan’s Computex announcing the company was moving into the personal computer space which is having ramifications across the tech landscape (+NVDA/MSFT/ARM, -AMD/INTC/QCOM). He also rolled out the Vera Rubin platform, talked about the rise of agentic AI and downplayed the imminent demise of the software sector: Salesforce, Service Now, SAP and IBM (also got upgraded) are all up >5%.
M&A is the other big story this morning. Over the weekend Berkshire Hathaway announced that it would buy home builder Taylor Morrison for ~$8.5. MGM is trading higher in the pre-market after reports that Barry Diller’s IAC, which owns 26.1% of the company, is trying to put together a bid for the rest of the company.
Treasury yields at the front end of the curve are moving up a couple of basis points with oil prices. After the open final S&P Global manufacturing PMI will be released followed by ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10:00. The USD index is moving modestly higher.
Government Yields
European equities are mixed, trading on either side of unchanged across the continent. ECB commentary continues to lean towards a rate hike in June. Software names are seeing some strength with SAP and Dassault up over 5%. German Retail sales fell from last month, about inline with estimates. UK housing prices declined more than expected from last month as well. In Asia Japan’s Nikkei gained 1% overnight. Softbank jumped 14% and overtook Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company. The company is planning $88B, 5GW AI data center investments in France according to reports. Memory maker Kioxia rose 10% with Goldman Sachs upgrading to a Buy. MOF data showed a record amount of monthly yen intervention - $73.6B- between April 28 and May 27. However, the currency is almost back to ¥160/$, the threshold that set off the intervention. Capital spending was unchanged in Q1 year-over-year falling from Q4’s 6.5% increase and missing estimates of a 4.1% gain. China was mixed with Hang Seng up just under 1% and Shanghai slipping modestly. Mainland tech was lower (Cambricon -5%) while Hang Seng Tech saw gains (Tencent, Alibaba +2%). Official Manufacturing PMI of 50.0 ticked lower from last month but met expectations, while non-manufacturing improved and beat estimates. The private Manufacturing PMI reading (RatingDog) was lower than last month (51.8 vs 52.2) but slightly above expectations. 10y bond yields dropped to a ten-month low and “panda bond” issuance (RMB debt issued by non-Chinese companies) is on a record pace. South Korea is up ~4% with tailwinds from the multitude of Nvidia product announcement headlines.
Oil prices are up but are off the overnight highs currently up ~2%, after Iran’s President said Japan ships will move through the Strait with greater ease. US natural gas prices are down ~2% giving back some of last week’s rally. The metals complex is mixed. Gold which bounced sharply at the end of the week after tagging its 200d is pulling back ~1%. However, the rest of the precious metals complex is slightly higher. Copper is outperforming up ~2.5%. Ag is mixed. Crypto continues to struggle as the Senate returns this week to try and move the Clarity Act forward. Bitcoin is down ~2% after Strategy announced that it had sold 32 bitcoins to pay the preferred dividend. Within the complex pre-IPO perpetual markets continue to capture a lot of attention.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: SAIC
After-Market: CRDO, HPE
Economic Data:
US:
Last week, Iran optimism (or headline fatigue) helped major US indices continue to move higher as oil prices and yields backed off. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% extending its weekly winning streak to 9 consecutive weeks, which has only happened 10X since the inception of the index in 1957. The breadth beneath the surface was mixed with tech continuing to drive the gains. Last week software, which had been left for dead a couple of months ago, was the big outperformer with the IGV up 8% for the week and >20% in May after a solid round of earnings. That didn’t come at the expense of semis/memory with the ICE Semin Index up similar amounts over those time frames but also up massively YTD. For the week energy, consumer staples and yield oriented sectors led to the downside.
The weekend came and went with no resolution on the Iran front. President Trump has reportedly requested some changes to the MOU. The two sides have exchanged some fire over the weekend which is causing a bounce in oil prices and yields albeit modest in the context of last week’s move. US futures are mixed with S&P and Dow futures both modestly higher, with continued tech strength while R2K futures are pointing to a modestly lower open.
Last night Jensen Huang gave the keynote at Taiwan’s Computex announcing the company was moving into the personal computer space which is having ramifications across the tech landscape (+NVDA/MSFT/ARM, -AMD/INTC/QCOM). He also rolled out the Vera Rubin platform, talked about the rise of agentic AI and downplayed the imminent demise of the software sector: Salesforce, Service Now, SAP and IBM (also got upgraded) are all up >5%.
M&A is the other big story this morning. Over the weekend Berkshire Hathaway announced that it would buy home builder Taylor Morrison for ~$8.5. MGM is trading higher in the pre-market after reports that Barry Diller’s IAC, which owns 26.1% of the company, is trying to put together a bid for the rest of the company.
Treasury yields at the front end of the curve are moving up a couple of basis points with oil prices. After the open final S&P Global manufacturing PMI will be released followed by ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10:00. The USD index is moving modestly higher.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +3bps to 4.03%, 5yr +2bps to 4.16%, 10yr +2bps to 4.45%, 30yr +1bps to 4.98%
- USD index: +$0.20 to $99.06
European equities are mixed, trading on either side of unchanged across the continent. ECB commentary continues to lean towards a rate hike in June. Software names are seeing some strength with SAP and Dassault up over 5%. German Retail sales fell from last month, about inline with estimates. UK housing prices declined more than expected from last month as well. In Asia Japan’s Nikkei gained 1% overnight. Softbank jumped 14% and overtook Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company. The company is planning $88B, 5GW AI data center investments in France according to reports. Memory maker Kioxia rose 10% with Goldman Sachs upgrading to a Buy. MOF data showed a record amount of monthly yen intervention - $73.6B- between April 28 and May 27. However, the currency is almost back to ¥160/$, the threshold that set off the intervention. Capital spending was unchanged in Q1 year-over-year falling from Q4’s 6.5% increase and missing estimates of a 4.1% gain. China was mixed with Hang Seng up just under 1% and Shanghai slipping modestly. Mainland tech was lower (Cambricon -5%) while Hang Seng Tech saw gains (Tencent, Alibaba +2%). Official Manufacturing PMI of 50.0 ticked lower from last month but met expectations, while non-manufacturing improved and beat estimates. The private Manufacturing PMI reading (RatingDog) was lower than last month (51.8 vs 52.2) but slightly above expectations. 10y bond yields dropped to a ten-month low and “panda bond” issuance (RMB debt issued by non-Chinese companies) is on a record pace. South Korea is up ~4% with tailwinds from the multitude of Nvidia product announcement headlines.
Oil prices are up but are off the overnight highs currently up ~2%, after Iran’s President said Japan ships will move through the Strait with greater ease. US natural gas prices are down ~2% giving back some of last week’s rally. The metals complex is mixed. Gold which bounced sharply at the end of the week after tagging its 200d is pulling back ~1%. However, the rest of the precious metals complex is slightly higher. Copper is outperforming up ~2.5%. Ag is mixed. Crypto continues to struggle as the Senate returns this week to try and move the Clarity Act forward. Bitcoin is down ~2% after Strategy announced that it had sold 32 bitcoins to pay the preferred dividend. Within the complex pre-IPO perpetual markets continue to capture a lot of attention.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: SAIC
After-Market: CRDO, HPE
Economic Data:
US:
- 9:45 S&P Manufacturing PMI (final)
- 10:00 Construction Spending
- 10:00 ISM Manufacturing
- 11:30 3/6mo T-Bill Auction
- China Rating Dog Manufacturing: 51.8 vs. 51.4 cons., prior 52.2
- Germany Retail Sales: -0.3% vs. -0.4% cons., prior -0.3%
- UK Home Prices: -0.6% vs. -0.1% cons., prior 0.4%
- India Industrial Production: 4.9% vs. 3.9% cons., prior 4.1%
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