by Michael P. Reinking, CFA

Published on 4/16/26 (a/o 2:00)

Yesterday was a record setting for the S&P 500 though there didn’t seem to be much fanfare. The index closed above 7k for the first time in history ending up 0.8%, near session highs. However, breadth was not particularly robust as the equal-weight closed unchanged, the Russell 2000 lagged and the Dow fell. It was tech that led the charge with the NYSE 100 extending its winning streak to 11 days. However, there was some bifurcation within this sector as well. The much-maligned software names extended their recent bounce (IGV +4%) while semis were weak despite strong earnings from ASML (a pattern we’ve seen quite a lot of in tech). Some higher risk thematic areas also saw continued strength, like Quantum Computing, helped by technological advancements and industry gatherings.

There have been no major updates on the Iran front, but more incremental news. Iran reportedly proposed letting ships transit Hormuz on Oman’s side of the Strait while the US looks to be leveraging more economic actions to keep the pressure on. The ceasefire is holding, the blockade remains intact and Israel and Lebanon are reportedly close to announcing a 10-day ceasefire. This continues to keep a bid under the market which is in many ways is the pain trade as portfolios were under invested and being forced to chase.

There was a modest pullback after the open but it didn’t take long for the grind higher to continue. However, markets have pulled back off from the highs amidst reports that a peace agreement could take months which has also put a bid back under oil which is now up ~5%. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 6pts to 7,029 (+0.1%), the Dow is up 85pts to 48,549 (+0.2%), while the Russell 2k is down 2pts to 2,712 (-0.1%).

A slew of market watchers have released interesting statistics putting this recent rally in historical context.  One of my favorites came from Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research, who highlighted that the nearly 10% rally in the 10 days ending Tuesday, ranked in the 99.7th percentile of all 10-day returns going back to 1950.  He goes on to highlight that the forward return profiles of the 20 instances that had exceeded these returns was generally pretty positive but did note that all but two of those rallies ended <10% below ATH’s making this situation unique. 

Moving to economic data, weekly jobless claims continue to remain in the low 200k level, moving down from last week’s 218k. Continuing claims moved higher but also remain at low levels. The Philly Fed Index increased from 18.1 to 26.7, following the Empire survey’s strength. New Orders were particularly strong (from 8.6 to 33.0) but Prices Paid and Received also jumped, as did the outlook for Prices Received 6 months from now (from 38.4 to 50.2). Just ahead of the open industrial production came in below expectations falling 0.5% but the February reading was revised up to 0.7% from 0.2%. Capacity utilization dropped to 75.7% from 76.1%. Yields were modestly lower overnight but have been creeping higher throughout the session. The USD index is modestly higher hovering ~$98, looking to snap a string of 7 straight days of declines after the market went risk-on.  

Yields were modestly lower overnight but have been creeping higher throughout the session. The USD index is also modestly higher hovering ~$98, looking to snap a string of 7 straight days of declines after the market went risk-on.

Earnings season is still in early days but has been constructive thus far. US Bank earnings continued to be solid with no red flags in credit or consumer health, including reports from regional banks, Bank of New York the largest custody bank. Charles Schwab is under some pressure as revenues were a bit light. The company also announced the rollout of some AI initiatives and the launch of crypto trading on the platform. The sector broadly is hovering around unchanged.  

Tech continues to trade well with software continuing to bounce (IGV +1.5%). Taiwan Semi reported solid full results (revenues were already reported), bumped full-year revenue guidance to above 30% growth and said AI demand was extremely robust as the shift to agentic from chat catalyzes another step up in growth. The stock is the most recent in a growing list of tech companies to beat & raise and yet trade lower including ASML earlier this week.

Trucker J.B. Hunt (+>5%) beat consensus estimates and provided an optimistic take on the economy. Management highlighted improving dynamics in trucking as capacity has been reduced given the recent regulations which is helping the group broadly. However, that strength is being offset by weakness in aerospace and defense stocks within the industrial sector. PPG pre-announced positive earnings, calling out strength in aerospace. The coatings company is the most recent chemical company to implement price increases of up to 20% as input and logistics costs ratcheted higher.   

Healthcare is the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 with a couple of disappointing earnings in pharma and medtech. On the flip side energy is the only sector trading up >1% as oil prices are moving higher again. 

European indices ended mixed. UK macro data was solid. February Industrial Production beat estimates and grew from January, as did GDP. Japan’s Nikkei jumped over 2% overnight and also reached a record high with their Tech Triumvirate (Softbank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron) leading the way. The yen was volatile after Finance Minister Satsuki met with Treasury Secretary Bessent, which included more intervention talk. China was higher as well. Q1 GDP accelerated from last quarter, but Retail Sales for March slowed and missed estimates, suggesting continued reliance on manufacturing versus domestic consumption. President Trump said that China was not sending weapons to Iran.  

Energy prices are moving higher. Metals are pulling back modestly while ag is mixed. Crypto continues to struggle just under some key overhead resistance levels.

As we look ahead to tomorrow the economic calendar is pretty light. After the close earnings from Alcoa and Netflix will get some attention with financial earnings dominating tomorrow morning. Tomorrow is also options expiration.

After-Market: AA, CNS, FNB, LAKE, NFLX, VALE

Pre-Market: ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC

US:

Global: