STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/26/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 50,392 (-187), S&P 500 7,505 (+31), Russell 2000 2,913 (+44), NYSE FANG+ 9,443 (+254), ICE Brent Crude $100.04/barrel (-$3.50), Gold $4,504/oz (-$19), Bitcoin ~76.1k (+150)
- Ticket punched
- More optimism for a deal over the weekend
- Stocks higher at the unofficial start of summer
- Tech, small caps leading
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 534: Apex CEO Ian Cinnamon on the Space Race, Satellite Buses, and Orbital Platforms
- ETF Central: Craft & Capital President Chris Sullivan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Delinquencies Hold Steady in April
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
A long, soggy Memorial Day Weekend may have ruined some summer kickoff plans but NYC is buzzing after the Knicks completed the sweep of the Cavs and punched their ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. Street sign poles were climbed and mosh pits were opened around MSG.
Speaking of 1999, markets are partying like it. Last week the S&P 500 extended its weekly winning streak to 8, ending up ~1% amidst hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The equal-weight version of the index and small cap indices outperformed ending the week up ~2.5%, recouping a good portion of the previous week’s losses. That was helped in part by a reversal in yields in the back half of the week. Despite Nvidia pulling back after earnings the NYSE Semiconductor index was up >5% for the week, reversing >10% from the week’s lows. Healthcare, Utilities and REITs led to the upside ending the week up >3% with the last two helped by a couple of mega M&A transactions.
Over the weekend more optimistic reports about progress to end the Iran war came out, including President Trump posting a deal was "largely negotiated" and another Axios story which said the potential deal would include a 60-day ceasefire extension, an opening of the Strait, some sanction waivers and continued negotiations around the nuclear program.
That optimism was tempered a bit on Monday after the US conducted “self-defense” strikes targeting missile launch sites and mine laying boats. Markets took the flare-up in stride and focused on the positive coming back from the holiday. The S&P 500 opened up 0.5% from Friday’s close, eventually climbing to ~1% before pulling back to initial levels. Crude and treasury yields have pulled back helping small caps outperform. The Space group is seeing some big outperformers including Redwire (+28%) and Firefly (+20%).
Tech, Industrials and Materials are leading today. For Tech it’s the semis as the NYSE Semi index jumps another 5% and the DRAM memory ETF rockets 14% higher. UBS upped its PT on Micron from $535 to $1625, pushing MU up 17% and bordering on a trillion dollar market cap. Industrials and Materials are stronger across the board, with most benefitting from lower oil prices and hope for the Hormuz to open up and ease supply chain stress. Real Estate and Utilities are trading higher with the fall in yields. Energy and Staples are the clear laggards with oil down and high growth tech and small cap names leading.
Treasury yields are down 5-7bp across the curve, catching up with global yields after the holiday when yields across Europe and Asia fell. Those yields backed up today to cut into the overall decline. This afternoon’s 2yr auction was on the screws with a high yield of 4.071% tracking with the when-issued market. The US Dollar Index is slightly lower.
- US 2yr -6bps to 2Y%, 5yr -7bps to 5Y%, 10yr -7bps to 10Y%, 30yr -6bps to 30Y%
- USD index: -$0.05 to $99.14
Crude is down about 3% since Friday. Brent fell 7% on Monday, dropping below $100/barrel to ~$96 on the Iran deal updates. However, follow-up reports of US strikes in the Strait on Monday pushed Brent off those lows, currently trading ~$100. Despite the moves in oil gold was relatively contained, falling <1% since Friday and trading in a tight range $4450-$4600 over the past week. Silver is modestly higher as is Copper. Bitcoin traded down to ~$76k and below its 50d ma at its lows over the past 24hr but bounced to ~$78k before pulling back to ~$77k currently. ETH continues to trade rangebound ~$2100k. Ag is modestly lower.
Economic data is light today. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April improved from March and was back into positive territory (economy expanding at above-average growth). Conference Board Consumer Confidence slipped in May versus April. Present Situation fell while Expectations rose slightly.
Home Prices rose 1-2% in the Case Shiller and FHFA data, continuing a low growth trajectory well below rates a year-ago.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (General Business Activity) rose from -2.3 in April to 0.4 in May despite a deterioration across the various sub-indicators- Production and New Orders fell while Prices for inputs rose. The Outlook declined as well.
Major European indexes ended mostly lower, giving back some of the gains on Monday following the “largely negotiated” Iran peace news over the weekend. The UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed, up modestly after being closed yesterday as it caught up. Basic resources, utilities and telecom outperformed while autos, tech and media lagged. The ECB is likely to revise inflation expectations higher at its next meeting in June and is signaling that a rate hike is more likely. Spain’s PPI accelerated from 3.1% in March to 8.3% in April, underscoring the ECB’s move towards hikes. The EU is reported to be close to fining Google “high hundreds of millions of euros” for violating the Digital Markets Act.
Chinese markets were mixed overnight following Monday’s trading. The Hang Seng was flat as it returned from a holiday. Semiconductor names saw solid gains in a catch-up trade with mainland shares (SMIC +15%, Cambricon +7%) on news that Huawei developed a breakthrough in chip design to compete with TSMC. Markets continued to digest Beijing’s crackdown of offshore equity trading, which began Friday, DeepSeek made a 75% discount to its flagship AI model (V4-Pro) permanent. In economic data from Sunday night, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China fell 10.3% y/y in April, more than the 7.3% decline in the prior month. South Korea gained over 2% overnight after being closed Monday as well. Japan ended modestly lower overnight after the Nikkei jumped ~3% on Monday following the weekend’s Iran headlines.
Earnings:
- After-Market: BOX, MOD, SMTC, ZS
- Pre-Market (Wed): ANF, BBWI, CPRI, DKS, DY, MNRO, P
Economic Data:
US:
- Chicago Fed National Index: 0.14 vs prior -0.15
- S&P Case Shiller Home Prices (March) y/y: 0.8% vs 1.0% cons, prior 0.9%
- FHFA Home Prices (March) y.y: 1.7% vs prior 1.7%
- Consumer Confidence: 93.1 vs 92.0 cons, prior 93.8
- Dallas Fed Index: 0.4 vs prior -2.3
- 2yr auction: Inline with WI
Global:
- China FDI (Sun night): -10.3% prior -7.3%
- Spain PPI: 8.3% prior 3.1%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael Reinking, CFA & Eric Criscuolo
Published on 5/26/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Welcome back from the long soggy holiday weekend. At least we return to a New York City that is buzzing after the Knicks completed the sweep of the Cavs and punching their ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. Speaking of, markets are partying like it’s 1999. Last week the S&P 500 extended its weekly winning streak to 8 weeks ending up ~1% amidst hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The equal-weight version of the index and small cap indices outperformed ending the week up ~2.5%, recouping a good portion of the previous week’s losses, helped by a reversal in yields in the back half of the week. Despite Nvidia pulling back after earnings on Friday the NYSE Semiconductor index was up >2% of Friday and up >5% for the week reversing >10% from the week’s lows. Within the S&P 500 healthcare, Utilities and REITs led to the upside ending the week up >3% with the last two helped by a couple of mega M&A transactions.
Iran remained the focus over the weekend with the administration continuing to point to progress in deal negotiations. Axios reported the potential deal would include a 60-day ceasefire extension, an opening of the Strait, some sanction waivers and continued negotiations around the nuclear program. Some of the optimism has been tempered after the US conducted “self-defense” strikes overnight targeting missile launch sites and mine laying boats. S&P futures are up ~0.7% but are about 25pts off of yesterday’s high. Oil prices are trading down ~4% from Friday’s close but have also retraced some of its initial move. After closing at ~$104.25 on Friday, ICE Brent is hovering below its 50d ma ($99.75) after trading down to ~$96 yesterday.
Treasury yields are down just under 10bps across the curve (also a couple of bps off the lows). This morning Case Shiller Home prices will be released followed by consumer confidence after the open, which comes on the heels of a sharp decline in the U of Mich. Sentiment survey on Friday. This afternoon there will also be a $69B 2yr auction. The key economic data this week is on Thursday including PCE, personal income/spending and durable goods orders.
Government Yields
Chinese markets were mixed overnight following Monday’s trading when Hong Kong was closed but the remaining indexes saw solid gains (Shanghai +1%). The Hang Seng was flat as it returned from a holiday. Semiconductor names saw solid gains in a catch-up trade with mainland shares. Semis rose sharply on Monday (SMIC +15%, Cambricon +7%) on news that Huawei developed a breakthrough in chip design to compete with TSMC. Markets continued to digest Beijing’s crackdown of offshore equity trading, which began Friday, DeepSeek made a 75% discount to its flagship AI model (V4-Pro) permanent. In economic data, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell 10.3% y/y in April, more than the 7.3% decline in the prior month. South Korea gained over 2% overnight after being closed Monday as well. Japan ended modestly lower overnight after the Nikkei jumped ~3% on Monday following the weekend’s Iran headlines.
Brent crude fell 7% on Monday, dropping below $100/barrel to ~$96. However, follow-up reports of US strikes in the Strait on Monday saw oil bounce off those lows, currently up 3% today to around $99. Despite the move in oil gold was relatively contained, gaining 1% on Monday and falling a similar amount today as it remains rangebound. Silver was up ~3% but has given back those gains this morning as well. Bitcoin traded down to ~$74k and its 50d ma at its lows over the past 24hr but bounced to ~$77.5k before pulling back to ~$77k currently. ETH continues to trade rangebound ~$2100k.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: AZO, CSW, SKY
After-Market: BOX, MOD, SMTC, ZS
Pre-Market (Wed): ANF, BBWI, CPRI, DKS, DY, MNRO, P
Economic Data:
US:
Welcome back from the long soggy holiday weekend. At least we return to a New York City that is buzzing after the Knicks completed the sweep of the Cavs and punching their ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. Speaking of, markets are partying like it’s 1999. Last week the S&P 500 extended its weekly winning streak to 8 weeks ending up ~1% amidst hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The equal-weight version of the index and small cap indices outperformed ending the week up ~2.5%, recouping a good portion of the previous week’s losses, helped by a reversal in yields in the back half of the week. Despite Nvidia pulling back after earnings on Friday the NYSE Semiconductor index was up >2% of Friday and up >5% for the week reversing >10% from the week’s lows. Within the S&P 500 healthcare, Utilities and REITs led to the upside ending the week up >3% with the last two helped by a couple of mega M&A transactions.
Iran remained the focus over the weekend with the administration continuing to point to progress in deal negotiations. Axios reported the potential deal would include a 60-day ceasefire extension, an opening of the Strait, some sanction waivers and continued negotiations around the nuclear program. Some of the optimism has been tempered after the US conducted “self-defense” strikes overnight targeting missile launch sites and mine laying boats. S&P futures are up ~0.7% but are about 25pts off of yesterday’s high. Oil prices are trading down ~4% from Friday’s close but have also retraced some of its initial move. After closing at ~$104.25 on Friday, ICE Brent is hovering below its 50d ma ($99.75) after trading down to ~$96 yesterday.
Treasury yields are down just under 10bps across the curve (also a couple of bps off the lows). This morning Case Shiller Home prices will be released followed by consumer confidence after the open, which comes on the heels of a sharp decline in the U of Mich. Sentiment survey on Friday. This afternoon there will also be a $69B 2yr auction. The key economic data this week is on Thursday including PCE, personal income/spending and durable goods orders.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -7bps to 4.05%, 5yr -9bps to 4.18%, 10yr -9bps to 4.48%, 30yr -8bps to 5.01%
- USD index: -$0.14 to $99.05
Chinese markets were mixed overnight following Monday’s trading when Hong Kong was closed but the remaining indexes saw solid gains (Shanghai +1%). The Hang Seng was flat as it returned from a holiday. Semiconductor names saw solid gains in a catch-up trade with mainland shares. Semis rose sharply on Monday (SMIC +15%, Cambricon +7%) on news that Huawei developed a breakthrough in chip design to compete with TSMC. Markets continued to digest Beijing’s crackdown of offshore equity trading, which began Friday, DeepSeek made a 75% discount to its flagship AI model (V4-Pro) permanent. In economic data, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell 10.3% y/y in April, more than the 7.3% decline in the prior month. South Korea gained over 2% overnight after being closed Monday as well. Japan ended modestly lower overnight after the Nikkei jumped ~3% on Monday following the weekend’s Iran headlines.
Brent crude fell 7% on Monday, dropping below $100/barrel to ~$96. However, follow-up reports of US strikes in the Strait on Monday saw oil bounce off those lows, currently up 3% today to around $99. Despite the move in oil gold was relatively contained, gaining 1% on Monday and falling a similar amount today as it remains rangebound. Silver was up ~3% but has given back those gains this morning as well. Bitcoin traded down to ~$74k and its 50d ma at its lows over the past 24hr but bounced to ~$77.5k before pulling back to ~$77k currently. ETH continues to trade rangebound ~$2100k.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: AZO, CSW, SKY
After-Market: BOX, MOD, SMTC, ZS
Pre-Market (Wed): ANF, BBWI, CPRI, DKS, DY, MNRO, P
Economic Data:
US:
- Chicago Fed National Index: 0.14 vs prior -0.15
- 9:00 S&P Case Shiller
- 10:00 Consumer Confidence
- 10:30 Dallas Fed Index
- 1:00 $69B 2yr auction
- China FD (Sun)I: -10.3% prior -7.3%
- Spain PPI: 8.3% prior 3.1%
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