STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/21/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 51,980 (+297), S&P 500 7,754 (+104), Russell 2000 2,876 (+16), NYSE FANG+ 19,267 (+461), ICE Brent Crude $99.58/barrel (-$4.29), Gold $4,384/oz (-$41), Bitcoin ~85.9k (+4727)
MAC Desk Commentary:
The NYSE welcomed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to ring today’s Opening Bell and kick off what is likely to be a geopolitically-focused week. Leading into that, the S&P ended last week with a modest gain on Friday. A big Quad Witching and index rebalancing pushed volumes in the closing auction to over 3.5 billion shares, the 3rd largest on record. After falling below the 50d ma earlier in the week and testing support at the 100d, the S&P managed to close the week above the 50d and get back into the 7600-7800 range. Breadth wasn’t as strong on Friday however as the equal-weight fell 0.5%. Tech was a leader as the NYSE 100 rallied 0.7% finished the week strong as the ICE Semis Index rose 2.7%.

Over the weekend Middle East hostilities were looking like they would pressure equities today. The Houthis escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia and Ukraine launched a massive drone strike against Russia. However, President Trump called off attacks on the Houthis at the last minute according to the NYT, and the group said it was only targeting Saudi assets. Trump added he’s open to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN this week, but also he could “blow the entire nation up.” Always keep ‘em guessing. Saudi oil loadings have increased according to reports and the US said Hormuz oil and gas shipments are at a six month high. The overall news flow pushed oil lower and provide a tailwind for equities this morning. The NYT reported that the US proposed extending the China trade truce by 6 months, adding more support for equities. After Secretary Rubio rang the Opening Bell the S&P opened higher and extended those gains, currently up over 1%. Mega cap tech is very strong, making the equal-weight a laggard as it gains "only" 0.7%, with small caps around there as well.
Breadth is solid with 10/11 sectors higher.  Comm Services is the leader as META rips 10% ahead of its META Connect conference and Zuckerberg’s keynote Wednesday night. Optimism around the company’s Muse AI platform and AMD’s 8% gain today (META holds sizable warrants from a partnership) have helped trigger a rally which accelerated as the stock blew past key technical levels. One contrary note- AMZN blocked Muse shopping agents from accessing its site.

Its not just META with sharp gains in Comm Services. PSKY was up 10% after reaching agreements with various states that should allow its merger with WBD to proceed. It has since cut those gains in half. Tech is strong across the board. NYSE Semis +4%. IGV Software +2%. DRAM +3%. ACN (+3%) announced a partnership with Anthropic in AI safety development, with each expected to invest at least $1B over the next five years.

Real Estate’s gains are being led by the big data center REITS DLR and EQIX. Consumer Discretionary has gains across retail and travel/leisure. Staples is lagging as the sector is flat with the risk-on move. Energy is the only sector lower on oil’s weakness. Industrials are middle-of-the-pack with gains for most of the AI infrastructure plays. Freight names are mostly lower but ODFL is modestly higher, announcing a 5% rate increase to address rising costs across its business- something to keep an eye on as diesel continues to climb. For Materials, fertilizer stocks are lower after the US reached an agreement to purchase potash from Belarus.

Retail/thematic groups are seeing solid gains. Nuclear tech is sharply higher (OKLO, SMR +5-10%), quantum computing stocks are higher and rare earth stocks are as well on the heels of deal between the US and Greenland/Denmark for an expanded US presence- but not purchase- on the island.
While writing about AI can get...repetitive...there was a lot of news since the end of last week, especially with mid-terms coming in to view. NY State took another step in the implementation of the state’s RAISE Act, requiring large AI developers to register with NY and meeting new requirements, including around safety and incident-reporting.

Anthropic is now reportedly looking at November for its IPO, versus previous expectations of October, while expecting to generate over $100B in annualized revenue this year, according to several reports this weekend. Not sure if that annualized rate is based off of one day, one week or one month, or something else. Not to be ignored, the FT reported that OpenAI is expected to have burned through $280B between now and 2030.  There was also some reporting by the FT on the weakness of ORCL loans backing the giant Project Jupiter AI campus in New Mexico, part of the Stargate program between ORCL and OpenAI.  

It’s a very quiet day on the economic calendar. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.04 from +0.08 in July. A decline in Production-related indicators contributed the most to the move lower. Sales and orders indicators slowed and Personal Consumption rose. The Diffusion Index, a measure of the overall positive versus negative indicators (85 total) decline slightly but remains little changed since May. 
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (2027 voter) said in a speech this morning that the Fed may be unable to look through supply shocks like it did historically, as these shocks happen more frequently and prove more durable. As he said, “A cost shock that lasts multiple years forces us to revisit the rationale for looking through… the central bank still has to restore price stability under its legal mandate—and the only way to bring inflation down is to raise rates and narrow the gap between supply and demand.”  On the dovish side, he noted that the magnitude of response to address a persistent supply shock is probably lower than for a demand shock.

Treasury yields are lower following oil’s decline, down about 3bp at the long end.  The US Dollar Index is higher. On Friday the BOJ conducted a rate check on the heels of their decision to raise rates 25bp. The hike was expected but overall the meeting was less hawkish than it could have been and the yen weakened.

  • US 2yr -1bps to 4.74%, 5yr -3bps to 4.83%, 10yr -3bps to 4.96%, 30yr -3bps to 5.30%
  • USD index: +$0.18 to $100.12
Brent crude has weakened throughout the day and is at its lows, The November ICE Brent contract has fallen four straight days and fell below $100, down from $110 last week. US natural gas is down 2% and Europe down more than 5%. Precious metals are modestly lower but copper is up 2% on global production concerns. Crypto is a standout with BTC and ETH ripping higher. Bitcoin blew through resistance at $82.5K and is above $85K for the first time since late January, with a big short squeeze triggering the rally. 
Europe saw broad gains. Tech led the way along with Industrials and Financials. Pharma giant Novo stands out as a laggard, falling 8% as it held its Capital Markets Day. Germany’s ruling CDU party is dealing with another poor showing in local elections. Asian markets ended higher. Japan was closed for Respect-for-the-Aged Day, which my kids don’t celebrate. Softbank closed a $10B dollar-and-euro denominated bond sale to finance the company’s latest investment in OpenAI. In China the Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes rose 1% each. 1Y and 5Y LPRs were left unchanged, as expected. Treasury Secretary Bessent had a "very successful" meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, setting the stage for the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. The two sides continue to work on a Board of Trade agreement and discussed lowering tariffs on non-sensitive products. The current trade truce expires on November 10. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.6%. Chip exports surged 259% in the first 20 days of September. Australian AI data center developer Firmus is moving closer to an IPO that could raise up to $5B on the ASX in October. IT would be one of Australia’s largest ever IPOs.
Tomorrow is another modest day for data, headline by Richmond Fed Manufacturing and ADP weekly employment. A few Fed Speakers are on the schedule, including NY Fed President Williams.

Earnings:
  • After-Market: None
  • Pre-Market (Tues): AZO, MLKN, THO
  • After-Market (Tues): KBH, WOR

Economic Data:
US:
  • Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: -0.04 vs prior 0.08 
Global:
  • None
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/21/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
We start the week in a big way today as Secretary of State Marco Rubio rings the NYSE Opening Bell and the UNGA creates massive gridlock in Manhattan. On Friday the S&P rose 0.2% with a big Quad Witching and index rebalances pushing volumes in the closing auction to over 3.5 billion shares, the 3rd largest on record. After falling below the 50d ma earlier in the week and testing support at the 100d, the S&P managed to close the week above the 50d and get back into the 7600-7800 range. Breadth wasn’t as strong however as the equal-weight fell 0.5%. Tech was a leader as the NYSE 100 rallied 0.7% finished the week strong as the ICE Semis Index rose 2.7%.
 
Over the weekend the Houthis escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia and Ukraine launched a massive drone strike against Russia. However, President Trump called off attacks on the Houthi at the last minute according to the NYT and said he’s open to meeting Iran. Saudi oil loadings have increased according to reports and the US said Hormuz oil and gas shipments are at a six month high. This is helping push oil lower again and provide a tailwind for equities this morning. S&P futures are up a little under 1% and at their best overnight levels.  



It’s a very quiet day on the economic calendar. Treasury yields are lower following oil’s decline, down about 3bp across the curve. The US Dollar Index is up modestly. On Friday the BOJ conducted a rate check on the heels of their decision earlier in the day to raise rates 25bp. The hike was expected but overall the meeting was less hawkish than it could have been and the yen weakened.
  • US 2yr -2bps to 4.73%, 5yr -3bps to 4.82%, 10yr -3bps to 4.96%, 30yr -3bps to 5.30%
  • USD index: +$0.05 to $99.98
Europe is seeing broad gains. Tech is leading the way along with Industrials and Financials. Pharma giant Novo stands out as a laggard, down 5% as it holds its Capital Markets Day. Germany’s ruling CDU party is dealing with another poor showing in local elections. Asian markets ended higher. Japan was closed for Respect-for-the-Aged Day, which my kids don’t celebrate. Softbank closed a $10B dollar-and-euro denominated bond sale to finance the company’s latest investment in OpenAI. In China the Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes rose 1% each. 1Y and 5Y LPRs were left unchanged, as expected. Treasury Secretary Bessent had a "very successful" meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, setting the stage for the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. The two sides continue to work on a Board of Trade agreement and discussed lowering tariffs on non-sensitive products. The current trade truce expires on November 10. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.6%. Chip exports surged 259% in the first 20 days of September. Australian AI data center developer Firmus is moving closer to an IPO that could raise up to $5B on the ASX in October. IT would be one of Australia’s largest ever IPOs.


 
Crude is lower despite the weekend hostilities. President Trump said he’s open to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN this week, but also that he could “blow the entire nation up.” Always keep ‘em guessing. Saudi oil loadings have increased according to reports and the US said Hormuz oil and gas shipments are at a six month high. The November ICE Brent contract has fallen four straight days and sits ~$101, down from $110 last week. US natural gas is down 2% and Europe down more than 5%. Precious metals are modestly lower but copper is up 2%. Crypto is higher with BTC and ETH up ~5%. Bitcoin blew through resistance at $82.5K and is above $85K for the first time since late January, with a big short squeeze triggering the rally.


 
Economic Data:
US:
  • Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: -0.04 vs prior -0.08
Global:
  • None

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