STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/20/26 (a/o 12:00 pm)
DOW 49,814 (+450), S&P 500 7,407 (+53), Russell 2000 2,811 (+64), NYSE FANG+ 8,943 (+210), ICE Brent Crude $105.00/barrel (-$6.28), Gold $4,534/oz (+$23), Bitcoin ~77.1k (+185)
- Knicks comeback inspires equities
- Latest hope for peace drives oil, yields lower
- Awaiting Nvidia
- FOMC minutes later today, Flash PMIs tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 533: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster on The Power of Investing and Expanding Access
- ETF Central: Craft & Capital President Chris Sullivan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: April Home Prices Posted Strongest Monthly Gain in Nearly Two Years
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday US markets closed lower for the third consecutive session as global yields continued to move higher. The S&P 500 500 fell 0.7%, the equal-weight fared only slightly better while small/midcap indices- more exposed to higher rates- underperformed, falling ~1%. We did see some dip buying in semis and memory stocks with both groups seeing sharp intraday reversals to end modestly higher. Energy, defensive and yield-oriented sectors outperformed.
Futures were modestly lower overnight but started to reverse right around 10:30pm along with the NY Knicks Win Probability as they began a historic comeback in their Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cavs.
The S&P 500 opened up 0.2% as yields and oil both pulled back. Positive developments on the Iran front contributed to the moves- among them reports of ships from China, India and South Korea moving through the Strait, and later that the head of the Pakistani army could visit Iran tomorrow to announce a final version of a peace agreement. A tame CPI report out of the UK further helped tamp down on global yields (gilt yields down >10bp across the curve).
After coming in a bit after the Open, the Pakistani news kickstarted the gains around 10:15am. Gains are broad. Small caps are seeing the biggest bounces after coming under the most pressure the past few days. Our favorite high beta/risk baskets are seeing solid gains: Space, Quantum, Genomics, Neoclouds/Data Centers and Crypto all trading broadly higher with many names within each up 5% or more.
Consumer Discretionary is an unsurprising leader today as oil and yields both fall, and there's a bunch of high-profile earnings across the sector (see below). Tech is also near the top as the semis and broader AI equipment plays are seeing a sharp bounce after several days of weakness. The ICE Semis index is up 4% and DRAM memory ETF is up 3%. The NYSE 100 index is up over 1%. AI infrastructure plays like DE, VRT (Investor Day) are higher as well. We'll see what type of opener this action is when tonight's main event takes the stage- NVDA earnings. Software is lagging but the IGV ETF is modestly higher overall. Materials and Industrials make up the rest of the leaderboard. Energy is the laggard on oil’s move. Staples, Comm Services and Healthcare are the only other sectors lower.
This morning saw a bout of retail earnings that were generally solid though the price action is mixed.
- Retail earnings look pretty good though the stock response has been mixed. TJX is trading higher, VFC is lower as are Target (well off its lows) and Hasbro.
- Cava is a standout up 3% after strong numbers, helped by the MAC Desk’s weekly lunch pilgrimages.
- Homebuilder Toll Brothers is up 8% after beating estimates and raising guidance, and building materials supplier James Hardie is up a similar amount after earnings, though it noted a challenging construction environment.
- Tech earnings were also solid but Analog Devices and Keysight are trading lower.
- IPPs are trading higher after a positive regulatory update from PJM yesterday
It’s a light day of economic data. This afternoon there’s a 20yr auction and the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00pm. Oil inventory data continues to show higher than expected drawdowns, which have so far been able to buffer the US from the full force of the global oil supply disruption. A 20y auction this afternoon will generate some interest before the FOMC meeting minutes are released at 2pm and Flash PMIs will headline tomorrow's data.
Treasury yields are joining the global slide lower, down 7-9bo across the curve. The US Dollar Index is lower with the greenback weakening on the major crosses on Iran optimism.
- US 2yr -7bps to 4.05%, 5yr -9bps to 4.24%, 10yr -9bps to 4.58%, 30yr -7bps to 5.12%
- USD index: -$0.25 to $99.02
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight. South Korea and the Nikkei were both down ~1% with some tech weakness. The looming Samsung strike, which threatened to further pressure memory and semiconductor supply, is suspended after a last minute agreement was announced. There was a 20yr auction in Japan which had solid demand, another factor in the global yield pullback. In China the PBOC left its 1/5yr loan prime rates unchanged. In a surprise move the Indonesian central bank hiked 50bps. European indices moved higher throughout their session and closed at/near their highs with most up >1%. The inflation data in the UK noted above helped gilt yields retreat. Banks, tech equipment, miners and Industrial names saw some of the strongest gains across the region.
Oil prices slid lower throughout the morning and took a larger leg down on the Pakistani/Iran news, which came just before the inventory data. Metals are up modestly, about 1% across precious metals and copper. Ag is mostly lower with corn leading the way after an increase in weekly ethanol production and stable inventories in the latest EIA data. The crypto complex is stabilizing with Bitcoin and ETH up just under 1%.
Earnings:
- After-Market: ELF, ENS, INTU, NDSN, NVDA, URBN
- Pre-Market (Thrs): AAP, DE, HLNE, NTES, RL, TITN, WMS, WMT
- After-Market (Thrs): BULL, CAE, CPTR, DECK, FLO, HUBG, RAMP, ROST, TTWO, WDAY, ZM
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: -4.1% w/w vs prior 3.9%
- Refis: -0.1% vs prior 0.8%
- 30yr 6.56% vs prior 6.46%
- EIA Oil Inventories: -7.864M vs prior -4.306M
- API inventories (Tues AMC): -9.1M vs -3.4M cons, prior -2.188M
- 1:00pm 20yr auction
- 2:00pm FOMC Minutes
Global:
- China 1/5 yr Loan Prime rates left unchanged at 3% and 3.5%
- Indonesia raised rates by 50bps, more than expected, to 5.25%
- Germany PPI: 1.2% vs. 1% cons,. prior 2.5%
- UK CPI/Core: 0.7%/0.7% vs. 0.9%/0.8% cons., prior 0.7%/0.4%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 5/20/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday US markets closed lower for the third consecutive session as global yields continued to move to the upside. The S&P 500 500 fell 0.7% while small/midcap indices which are more exposed to the higher interest rate environment underperformed falling ~1%. For the first time we did start to see some dip buying in semis and memory stocks which sharp intraday reversals to end the day modestly higher. Energy, defensive and yield oriented sectors outperformed.
Futures were modestly lower overnight but started to reverse right around 10:30 as the New York Knicks began their historic comeback, and the vibes are high down here on the trading floor. Futures have been moving throughout the overnight session as yields and oil both pullback modestly. On the Iran front there have been reports of ships from China, India and South Korea moving through the Strait which is helping oil prices pullback >2%. There is still some hope for a diplomatic resolution with officials from Pakistan reportedly heading to Iran. Iran said that if President Trump follows through with his “big hit” it will retaliate beyond the Middle East. The move lower in oil and a tame CPI report in the UK has helped global yields to pullback with Treasury yields down 3-5bps overnight but have started to move higher as we approach the bell. Thus far the retail earnings this morning have been solid though the price action is mixed. In premarket trading semis, memory, other AI adjacent stocks are moving higher.
It is a light day of economic data. This afternoon there is a 20yr auction and the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00.
Government Yields
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight. South Korea and the Nikkei were both down ~1% with some tech weakness. The Samsung strike could begin on Thursday though there are reports the government will intervene. There was a 20yr auction in Japan which had solid demand which is another factor in the pullback in global yields. In China the PBOC left its 1/5yr loan prime rates unchanged. In a surprise the Indonesian central bank surprised markets by hiking 50bps. European indices have been moving modestly higher overnight and are hovering around yesterday’s highs. The inflation data in the UK helped Gilt yields pullback ~8bps across the curve.
Oil prices are now down ~2.5% ahead of this morning’s oil inventory data. The metals complex is trying to stabilize after the recent weakness while ag is giving back some of the recent gains. The crypto complex is also trying to stabilize after the recent weakness. Bitcoin is up just under 1% trading ~77.5k
Corporate headlines:
Earnings:
After-Market: CAVA, KEYS, TOL, XP
Pre-Market (Wed): ADI, HAS, LOW, TGT, TJX, VFC
After-Market: ELF, ENS, INTU, NDSN, NVDA, URBN
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday US markets closed lower for the third consecutive session as global yields continued to move to the upside. The S&P 500 500 fell 0.7% while small/midcap indices which are more exposed to the higher interest rate environment underperformed falling ~1%. For the first time we did start to see some dip buying in semis and memory stocks which sharp intraday reversals to end the day modestly higher. Energy, defensive and yield oriented sectors outperformed.
Futures were modestly lower overnight but started to reverse right around 10:30 as the New York Knicks began their historic comeback, and the vibes are high down here on the trading floor. Futures have been moving throughout the overnight session as yields and oil both pullback modestly. On the Iran front there have been reports of ships from China, India and South Korea moving through the Strait which is helping oil prices pullback >2%. There is still some hope for a diplomatic resolution with officials from Pakistan reportedly heading to Iran. Iran said that if President Trump follows through with his “big hit” it will retaliate beyond the Middle East. The move lower in oil and a tame CPI report in the UK has helped global yields to pullback with Treasury yields down 3-5bps overnight but have started to move higher as we approach the bell. Thus far the retail earnings this morning have been solid though the price action is mixed. In premarket trading semis, memory, other AI adjacent stocks are moving higher.
It is a light day of economic data. This afternoon there is a 20yr auction and the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -1bps to 4.11%, 5yr -2bps to 4.31%, 10yr -1bps to 4.65%, 30yr -1bps to 5.17%
- USD index: +$0.05 to $99.32
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight. South Korea and the Nikkei were both down ~1% with some tech weakness. The Samsung strike could begin on Thursday though there are reports the government will intervene. There was a 20yr auction in Japan which had solid demand which is another factor in the pullback in global yields. In China the PBOC left its 1/5yr loan prime rates unchanged. In a surprise the Indonesian central bank surprised markets by hiking 50bps. European indices have been moving modestly higher overnight and are hovering around yesterday’s highs. The inflation data in the UK helped Gilt yields pullback ~8bps across the curve.
Oil prices are now down ~2.5% ahead of this morning’s oil inventory data. The metals complex is trying to stabilize after the recent weakness while ag is giving back some of the recent gains. The crypto complex is also trying to stabilize after the recent weakness. Bitcoin is up just under 1% trading ~77.5k
Corporate headlines:
- At a high level the retail earnings look pretty good though the stock response in the pre-market has been mixed TJX and VFC are both modestly higher while Target, Lows and Hasbro are in the red.
- Cava is a standout up 10% after strong numbers, the MAC Desk is doing their part to support the company, with a weekly pilgrimage.
- Toll Brothers is trading modestly higher. Expectations were quite low the company beat for the quarter and raised annual guidance.
- Tech earnings were also solid but stocks are trading lower (ADI/KEYS). The big kahuna reports tonight after the close.
- IPPs are trading higher after a positive regulatory update from PJM yesterday
Earnings:
After-Market: CAVA, KEYS, TOL, XP
Pre-Market (Wed): ADI, HAS, LOW, TGT, TJX, VFC
After-Market: ELF, ENS, INTU, NDSN, NVDA, URBN
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: -2.3% w/w prior 1.7%; 30yr 6.56% prior 6.46%
- 10:00 Fed Barr
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
- 1:00 20yr auction
- 2:00 FOMC Minutes
- China 1/5 yr Loan Prime rates left unchanged at 3% and 3.5%
- Indonesia raised rates by 50bps, more than expected, to 5.25%
- Germany PPI: 1.2% vs. 1% cons,. prior 2.5%
- UK CPI/Core: 0.7%/0.7% vs. 0.9%/0.8% cons., prior 0.7%/0.4%
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