STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/21/26 (a/o 12:45 pm)
DOW 52,323 (+484), S&P 500 7,511 (+67), Russell 2000 2,978 (+36), NYSE FANG+ 17,448 (+168), ICE Brent Crude $91.30/barrel (+$2.08), Gold $4,077/oz (+$61), Bitcoin ~66.5k (+1246)
  • Tech bounce outweighs move higher in oil/yields
  • Earnings take center stage
  • Tariffs are back in the conversation
  • Crypto rallying on Clarity Act hopes
  • Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
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  • NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
  • Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday, US equity markets opened higher as there was some stabilization in the momentum unwind but major indices faded throughout the session closing slightly lower. Reports of a potential 10-day ceasefire helped oil prices pullback from the Sunday evening highs after a pickup of kinetic activity over the weekend. The S&P 500 ended the day down 0.2% spending most of the session trying to hold above its 50d ma. Breadth wasn’t great with only 3 of 11 S&P 500 sectors ending in positive territory. Healthcare, materials and industrials underperformed all falling ~1%. Tech outperformed modestly with particular strength in data centers/neoclouds following contract and ARR news from HUT and IREN while the mega-cap tech names also ended modestly higher.

After a strong tech lead overnight session in Asia US markets are rallying despite oil prices and Treasury yields testing recent highs. Geopolitics remain front and center with tariffs back in the conversation again. It is a quiet day of economic data, but earnings are making up for that. Yesterday’s tech bounce faded but today there has been a “gap and go” with many semi and memory stock up between 5% -10%. Tech is doing most of the heavy lifting, but breadth is improved from yesterday though adv:dec is still less than 1:1 in the S&P 500. After gapping up ~0.5% at the open the S&P 500 pulled back to test its 50d ma again and the index has been grinding higher since but has yet to break above yesterday’s opening levels. As we head to print most major indices are ~1%.  
In general, the earnings look solid but broadly speaking the stock reactions have leaned negative. Below are some of the highlights at the sector level:

  • Tech
  • Taiwan Semi - not earnings related but there are reports that the company will increase prices next year
  • Calix (CALX ->5%) was the most recent company to highlight the increase in memory costs weighing on GM’s. The company said it will start imposing surcharges on some orders.
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • General Motors (+0.5%)- beat on top/bottom line and increased FY26 EPS guidance to $12.00-$14.00 from $11.50-$13.50
  • DHI (around unch) - Earnings beat driven by deliveries and better GMs but cut revenue guidance amidst continued housing headwinds
  • HAS - trading higher after EPS beat and raised rev growth to 5%-7% from 3%-5%
  • Industrials
  • MMM (+>5%)- Beat and raise. Management highlighted beat driven by execution, innovation and efficiency. Strength in safety, industrials, and data center offsetting some auto/consumer weakness
  • NOC (-2.5%) - strong beat but driven by tax only tweaked up guidance
  • Financials- most of the reports today looked solid but the stocks are mostly lower.
  • Schwab highlighted strong trading revenues.
  • ZION/KEY lower on disappointing NII/NIM guidance.  
  • MSCI - small miss on top/bottom line. Disappointment on reoccurring sales and higher expenses.
  • Healthcare
  • Danaher (DHR ->10%) - Solid EPS numbers for quarter and tweaked full-year higher however, company cut full-year sales guidance to 3-4% from 3-6%
  • Novartis (+3%) - Top and bottom line beat and reaffirmed second half
  • Materials
  • Steel Dynamics (+2%) - solid numbers highlighting strong domestic demand from non-residential construction, onshoring, and infrastructure investment trends.
  • Crown Holdings (CCK +5%) - beat and raise strong global volume growth coming from Asia/Europe offsetting Latin America weakness
It is a quiet day on the economic front with the ADP Weekly Employment change the only release. It continued to show some moderation with the 4-week average falling to 16.5k from 19.75k last week. Tariffs are re-entering the conversation with President Trump announcing a 50% tariff on Canadian goods “ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement” though there are exemptions for key categories including energy, potash, critical minerals and products subject to tariffs under Section 232 (autos/steel). More broadly the 10% tariffs instituted after the SCOTUS decision in February are set to expire on Friday.  There was an FT story suggesting new tariff announcements were imminent and administration officials are starting to hit the media circuit. Treasury Secretary Bessent was speaking on a wide range of topics this morning saying the administration will review China AI models. Treasury yields are up 2-4bps across the curve. The USD index is moving back up to ~$101 as the Yen approaches 163.

  • US 2yr +4bps to 4.26%, 5yr +4bps to 4.37%, 10yr +3bps to 4.63%, 30yr +2bps to 5.14%
  • USD index: +$0.15 to $100.94
Global indices were mostly higher overnight as tech bounced. The Nikkei was up >3% after being closed yesterday, there was broad based strength beyond tech with financials some of the best performing stocks. The Cabinet supported the economic blueprint transitioning to a growth-oriented model with investment in 17 strategic areas leading to a fiscal sustainability. This was largely in line with what had previously been reported and the Yen continued to drift lower while local yields moved up a couple of bps.  South Korea was also up >3% recouping some of yesterday’s losses. In China, the Shanghai Composite was up nearly 2% extending yesterday’s rally while the Hang Seng closed around unchanged. There continue to be reports of government support to stabilize markets ahead of the upcoming CXMT IPO. Most European indices opened higher, faded into the US open but then resumed to the upside closing near session higher up ~0.5%. In the UK, the political transition remains in focus this morning’s labor market data came in better than expected. 
Oil prices have been moving higher throughout the morning with ICE Brent up ~2% trading ~$91, back near the Sunday evening high. There were reports that Iran officials met with mediators in Pakistan. President Trump suggested Iran wants a deal again but has no plans to stop strikes which will include the Pickaxe Mountain area soon. Two Saudi oil tankers were reportedly turned back in the Red Sea. US nat gas is around unchanged while prices in Europe continue to move higher with activity in Russia/Ukraine continuing to escalate. Metals are moving higher despite the USD strength. Both gold and silver are trying to break above their respective 20d ma’s which they have consistently been trading below over the last few months. Copper which has held up better amidst the pullback is up >3% and is quickly approaching the May highs. Ag is mixed. Crypto is extending recent gains helped by reports that President Trump reportedly agreed to the ethics provision within the stalled Clarity Act. This morning Treasury Secretary Bessent said the bill was on the 1-yard line and also said the government froze >$100ml in crypto wallets tied to the IRGC. Bitcoin is up ~2% trading at ~66.5k approaching the mid-June highs just over 67k. Ethereum is up a similar amount trading over 1.9k. 
Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow the calendar ex-earnings looks pretty quiet. The earnings will be a mix of financials, industrials. There are some key reports related to AI including GE Vernova tomorrow morning and Alphabet after the close.  Other tech earnings include IBM, Service Now, Texas Instruments and Tesla. 

Earnings:
After-Market (Tues): AIR, ALK, COF, CB, EQT, FFBC, HWC, IBRK, MCB, NBHC, NLY, RRC, VALE (production & sales), WBS, WAL, WFRD
Pre-Market: BKU, BMI, CALM, CCS, CME, GEV, IRDM, MCO, NTRS, OTIS, PHM, PM, RPM, T, TEL, TDY, TNL, WAB
After-Market: AVB, CCI, CSX, EQR, FAF, FULT, GGG, GL, GOOGL, GTY, IBM, KALU, KNX, LBRT, LUV, MEDP, NOW, OII, PKG, RJF, RNR, RS, SANM, SLG, SON, TCBI, TSLA, TXN, WEX, WH

Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP Employment Change Weekly: 16.5k prior 19.75k
  • 4:30 API Oil Inventories
Global:
  • UK Unemployment: 4.9% vs. 5% cons, prior 4.9%
  • UK Employment Change: 147k vs. 85k cons, prior 99k
  • EU ZEW Economic Sentiment: 23.4 vs. 11.2 cons., prior 9.5
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment: 26.3 vs. 18 cons., prior 10.5

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