STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 7/24/26
Good morning,
Yesterday the S&P fell 1.2% but the equal-weight outperformed, slipping just 0.4% while the Russell 2000 was in the middle, falling 0.7%. Treasury yields rose 2-5bp across the curve as oil ripped over 5%, taking Brent back above $100. There was notable weakness in the mega caps and in particular the hyperscalers. Alphabet fell 7% after another solid print took the backseat to increased capex/FCF concerns. Amazon got hit for 5%. Tesla was worse off, falling 15% on earnings. Axios reported that President Trump was “seriously considering” restarting major combat operations in Iran, helping send oil higher along with the expansion of the Iran conflict to include the Houthis and Red Sea.
Equity futures were modestly higher, attempting to finish the week on a positive note and bounce off yesterday’s decline. They turned lower after news of explosions in Saudi Arabia. Then, a Yemeni official said the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains open, contrary to some claims, though their actions remain fixed on Saudi Arabia. Oil is taking a breather, having jumped ~15% this week and piercing $100 yesterday. Our old friend Tariffs are back. The administration has officially introduced the new tariff regime, with 10-12% duties on imports from about 80 countries. The tariffs come under Section 301 of the Trade Act. Oil and gas, goods covered under national security tariffs (cars, car parts, steel, aluminum) and USMCA-covered goods do not fall under this new regime, along with certain food and ag products. The new tariffs largely replace the temporary 10% tariffs that expire today.
US Flash PMIs will be out after the open, along with New Home sales. Treasury yields are down 1-2bp across the curve after rising steadily this week. The US Dollar Index is a bit higher after yesterday’s gain.
Earnings/corporate news today include:
Crude is taking a breather as we mentioned. Natural gas is higher in both the US and Europe, with US prices resting just below $3.00. Metals are mixed, stabilizing after yesterday’s drop. Copper is trying to hold its 50d ma. Bitcoin and ETH are slightly lower as Bitcoin struggles to clear its 50d ma ~$66K. Ag is lower as well.
European markets are trading higher led by Germany. Banks and Manufacturing/Industrials are leading today and SAP is up over 5% on earnings. German and UK July PMIs were better than expected and improved from last month. Japan tumbled ~3% overnight, following US weakness on Thursday and tracking with the 6% overnight drop in South Korea’s Kospi. Flash PMIs were inline for Manufacturing, and slightly lower for Services versus last month. Core CPI was inline and slightly higher versus last month. There were more reports of additional restrictions on leveraged ETFs in Korea. China’s markets were lower (Shanghai -1.6%, Hong Kong -1%) but finished the week up over 1%. CXMT will begin trading on Monday.
Earnings:
After-Market (Thrs): ABCB, APPF, ASB, BYD, DLR, INTC, KN, LAZ, MOH, MXL, NEM, OVV, REXR, RNG, SAM, SAP, SCHL, SLM, URI, VRSN
Pre-Market: AXP, BAH, CHTR, GNTX, LW, NEE, SLB, THC, VZ
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday the S&P fell 1.2% but the equal-weight outperformed, slipping just 0.4% while the Russell 2000 was in the middle, falling 0.7%. Treasury yields rose 2-5bp across the curve as oil ripped over 5%, taking Brent back above $100. There was notable weakness in the mega caps and in particular the hyperscalers. Alphabet fell 7% after another solid print took the backseat to increased capex/FCF concerns. Amazon got hit for 5%. Tesla was worse off, falling 15% on earnings. Axios reported that President Trump was “seriously considering” restarting major combat operations in Iran, helping send oil higher along with the expansion of the Iran conflict to include the Houthis and Red Sea.
Equity futures were modestly higher, attempting to finish the week on a positive note and bounce off yesterday’s decline. They turned lower after news of explosions in Saudi Arabia. Then, a Yemeni official said the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains open, contrary to some claims, though their actions remain fixed on Saudi Arabia. Oil is taking a breather, having jumped ~15% this week and piercing $100 yesterday. Our old friend Tariffs are back. The administration has officially introduced the new tariff regime, with 10-12% duties on imports from about 80 countries. The tariffs come under Section 301 of the Trade Act. Oil and gas, goods covered under national security tariffs (cars, car parts, steel, aluminum) and USMCA-covered goods do not fall under this new regime, along with certain food and ag products. The new tariffs largely replace the temporary 10% tariffs that expire today.
US Flash PMIs will be out after the open, along with New Home sales. Treasury yields are down 1-2bp across the curve after rising steadily this week. The US Dollar Index is a bit higher after yesterday’s gain.
- US 2yr -2bps to 4.33%, 5yr -2bps to 4.44%, 10yr -1bps to 4.68%, 30yr -0bps to 5.16%
- USD index: +$0.05 to $101.34
Earnings/corporate news today include:
- INTC (+3%): Strong top and bottom beat. More robust commentary around AI “driving unprecedented demand for compute”. The company expects to meaningfully increase spending to capture that demand.
- ORCL (+2%): Annoucned a 10yr, $7B agreement with the Pentagon.
- SAP (+5%): Top line beat but EPS missed on margins, leading to lowered full year margin/EPS guidance. More positive comments on cloud demand.
- AXP (-5%): Trading lower on mixed earnings, EPS guide increased. Loss Provision was below consensus and Card Member spending growth was the highest in three years.
- THC +15% on earnings.
Crude is taking a breather as we mentioned. Natural gas is higher in both the US and Europe, with US prices resting just below $3.00. Metals are mixed, stabilizing after yesterday’s drop. Copper is trying to hold its 50d ma. Bitcoin and ETH are slightly lower as Bitcoin struggles to clear its 50d ma ~$66K. Ag is lower as well.
European markets are trading higher led by Germany. Banks and Manufacturing/Industrials are leading today and SAP is up over 5% on earnings. German and UK July PMIs were better than expected and improved from last month. Japan tumbled ~3% overnight, following US weakness on Thursday and tracking with the 6% overnight drop in South Korea’s Kospi. Flash PMIs were inline for Manufacturing, and slightly lower for Services versus last month. Core CPI was inline and slightly higher versus last month. There were more reports of additional restrictions on leveraged ETFs in Korea. China’s markets were lower (Shanghai -1.6%, Hong Kong -1%) but finished the week up over 1%. CXMT will begin trading on Monday.
Earnings:
After-Market (Thrs): ABCB, APPF, ASB, BYD, DLR, INTC, KN, LAZ, MOH, MXL, NEM, OVV, REXR, RNG, SAM, SAP, SCHL, SLM, URI, VRSN
Pre-Market: AXP, BAH, CHTR, GNTX, LW, NEE, SLB, THC, VZ
Economic Data:
US:
- Building Permits (final): 1.374M vs 1.367M cons, prior 1.41M
- 9:45am Flash PMIs
- 10:00am New Home Sales
- 1:00pm Rig count
- Japan core CPI: 1.6% vs 1.6% cons, prior 1.4%
- Manufacturing / Services Flash PMIs:
- Japan: 54.7 / 51.9 vs prior 54.8 / 52.2
- Australia: 51.7 / 53.0 vs prior 51.5 / 50.5
- India: 53.9 / 53.1 vs prior 54.2 / 57.4
- UK: 52.8 / 51.8 vs 52.0 / 49.4 cons, prior 52.5 / 48.8
- Germany: 52.2 / 49.6 vs 50.5 / 49.0 cons, prior 50.3 / 48.6
- France: 50.0 / 49.8 vs 51.0 / 47.5 cons, prior 51.2 / 46.8
- EU: 52.0 / 51.6 vs 51.5 / 49.8 cons, prior 51.4 / 49.4
- Germany GfK: -29.6 vs -28.5 con, prior -29.3
- UK Retail Sales m.m: 1.0% vs -0.3% cons, prior 1.2%
- EU Consumer inflation expectations: 3.0% vs prior 3.5%
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