STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/10/26 (a/o 2:15 pm)
DOW 52,384 (-402), S&P 500 7,638 (-35), Russell 2000 2,926 (-34), NYSE FANG+ 18,574 (+5), ICE Brent Crude $101.33/barrel (+$3.41), Gold $4,445/oz (+$6), Bitcoin ~78.8k (+272)
- Oil, yields ripping higher
- Stocks under pressure
- PPI inline, CPI tomorrow
- ECB hikes. Fed next?
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 553: Brixmor CEO Brian Finnegan on the Symbiotic Bond Between Retail and Community
- ETF Central: ETF Focus Partners Wealth Senior Wealth Advisor Adam Yofan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: First Look - Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improve
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday US equities were under almost as much pressure as Drake Maye last night. The S&P 500 fell ~0.5%. Broad weakness left the equal-weight version down 1%. AI tech hardware outperformed again amidst positive management commentary at sell-side conferences and continued excitement around recent model releases, outside of the guy calling for the extinction of the human race. Though there's only a 10% chance of that happening by the end of the decade, according to a former colleague. Regardless, oil prices extended to the upside with ICE Brent breaking back above $100. This along with some disappointment in the size of the announced Treasury buyback pushed yields higher, despite a reasonably strong 10yr auction.
Oil continued to climb overnight. Houthis reportedly seized control of the port city of Mokha in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, helping ignite the latest move higher. The WSJ later reported that Iran has resumed production of ballistic missiles, a capability that was removed by US and Israeli strikes earlier in the conflict. Yields followed oil, moving sharply higher, and the pressure on equities continued. The S&P gapped down below the 50d ma and 7600 (the low end of the recent range) at the open and is currently attempting to get back above it as it trades in a narrow intraday range. President Trump’s pledge last night to pay a $5k dividend if Republicans win the mid-terms isn't providing much help. The equal-weight is about inline while small caps underperform.
Despite oil's move Energy is slightly lower. Materials s the standout underperformer, with miners under pressure and most names lower. Tech (NYSE Semis -2%) and Industrials (broad weakness, especially housing-related), as well as Real Estate are also underperforming. Consumer Staples are leading and one of only two sectors higher on a defensive tilt (e.g. managed care flat to higher as well). Comm Services is the other gainer, with most stocks higher across media (GOOG flat, META slightly lower).
PPI was the main data out today in a preview of CPI tomorrow. Headline was inline on a m.m basis (+0.4%) and last month was revised up from 0.0% to 0.1%. Core m.m of 0.2% continued the recent downtrend and was slightly below the 0.3% consensus, while core y.y was inline (+4.6%). Final demand goods rose 1.1% m/m but more than 75% of that was Energy. Ex-Energy and Food it was up 0.4%. Final Demand Services was up 0.1%, driven by transportation and warehouse services. Trade services, a volatile measure (i.e. margins) fell 0.2%.
Labor market conditions remain unchanged. Weekly initial jobless claims of 206K were basically inline with consensus (205K) and last week (207K). Continuing claims of 1774K were also roughly in line (1780K). Existing Home Sales was roughly in line and remain lethargic.
Yesterday's strong 10y treasury auction was followed by an even stronger 30y auction today, which stopped-through by ~3bp. That didn't really dent the upward momentum in rates, as they followed oil higher and are trading at the day's high for the 30y (~5.35%, +7bp). The 2y has been the real mover, up over 10bp. Markets have now priced a 70% chance of a Fed hike next week, versus 60% yesterday, ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. The yield moved has dragged the US Dollar Index back above 99.
- US 2yr +12bps to 4.56%, 5yr +12bps to 4.74%, 10yr +10bps to 4.95%, 30yr +7bps to 5.36%
- USD index: +$0.22 to $99.03
Global markets were mostly lower overnight. The Nikkei managed a small gain as financials outperformed. There continued to be some hawkish central bank commentary ahead of next week’s rate decision. India’s Sensex, a big underperformer this year, also ended with modest gains. Shanghai was lower and Hong Kong fell over 1% with consumer tech under pressure. There have been some slightly positive trade headlines ahead of President Xi’s trip to the US, though both sides continue to trade jabs over AI distillation. European indices were down as well, finishing near or at their lows. The ECB hiked rates by 25bps as expected and the statement leaned more hawkish, highlighted the upside risks to inflation. On the other hand, ECB President Lagarde also noted the EU's economic resilience in her comments.
After Brent crude broke above $100 yesterday, it's accelerating to the upside today, currently up 6%. The ULSD Diesel contract is over $5/gallon, having double since the end of February. Saudi crude production fell to its lowest level since 1990 according to the latest OPEC monthly report. Meanwhile, US production hit a record, according to today's EIA report. European gas is adding to its gains this week while US gas is flat. Precious metals are getting sold. Gold is outperforming but down over 1% and trying to hold $4400/100d ma. Copper is getting hit as the White House has yet to decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper, which had triggered stockpiling in the US. Ag is modestly higher, and there are reports that China purchased 1ml tons of soybeans. Crypto is relatively calm with ETH flat and Bitcoin down 1%.
Earnings:
After-Market: ADBE, CPRT, DSGX, ORCL, RH, ZUMZ
Pre-Market: HOFT, KR
Economic data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 206k vs. 205k cons., prior 206k
- Continuing Claims: 1.774 vs. 1.78ml cons., prior 1.779ml
- PPI: 0.4%/4.6%m.m/y.y vs. 0.4%/4.6% cons., prior 0%/4.2%
- Core PPI: 0.2% / 4.6% m.m / y.y vs. 0.3% / 4.6% cons., prior 0.2% / 4.2%
- Existing Home Sales: 3.98M vs 3.98M cons, prior 4.06M
- Oil Inventories: -0.391M vs -1.4M cons, prior -4.450M
Global:
- China Vehicle Sales: -5.1% prior -0.3%
- ECB Rate Decision: Hiked by 25bps as expected
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 9/10/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday US equities were under almost as much pressure as Drake Maye last night. The S&P 500 fell ~0.5% with broad based weakness leaving the equal weight version of the index down 1%. AI tech hardware outperformed again amidst positive management commentary at sell side conferences and as recent model releases continue to receive positive reviews, outside of the guy who is calling for the extinction of the human race. Oil prices extended to the upside with ICE Brent breaking back above $100. This along with some disappointment in the size of the announced Treasury buyback pushed yields higher, despite a reasonably strong 10yr auction.
S&P futures tried to bounce modestly overnight but have turned lower as oil prices have accelerated to the upside. Houthis have reportedly seized control of the port city of Mocha in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait sending ICE Brent it up >4% currently trading above $105. This morning’s PPI was largely in line with expectations but did accelerate from last month. This along with the move in oil is weighing on Treasuries with yields up >5bps across the curve. President Trump’s pledge to pay a $5k dividend if Republicans win mid-terms is not necessarily helping the cause. S&P futures have accelerated to the downside looking down ~0.5%, which would put the cash index right around its 50d ma.
Headline PPI was inline on a m.m basis (+0.4%) and last month was revised up from 0.0% to 0.1%. Core m.m of 0.2% was slightly below the 0.3% consensus, while core y.y was inline (+4.6%). Final demand goods rose 1.1% m/m but more than 75% of that was Energy. Ex-Energy and Food it was up 0.4%. Final Demand Services was up 0.1%, driven by transportation and warehouse services. Trade services, a volatile measure (i.e. margins) fell 0.2%. Labor market conditions remain unchanged. Weekly initial jobless claims of 206K were basically inline with consensus (205K) and last week (207K). Continuing claims of 1774K were also roughly in line (1780K). Existing Home Sales come out after the open along with Wholesale Inventories, Crude and Natural gas inventories. A 30Y bond auction will also see a lot of attention, given the rate moves and coming after yesterday's very strong 10y auction. Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report odds for a rate hike next week have moved up to ~75%. The USD is bouncing modestly.
Global markets were mostly lower overnight as oil prices kept traders on edge. The Nikkei bucked the weakness ending slightly higher with financials outperforming. There continued to be some hawkish central bank commentary ahead of next week’s rate decision. India’s Sensex also ended with modest gains. Markets in China/Hong Kong were under pressure. There have been some slightly positive trade headlines ahead of President Xi’s trip to the US. European indices are near session lows down between 0.5% - 1%. The ECB hiked rates by 25bps as expected.
Energy and ag commodities that are directly impacted by the global conflicts are moving higher. The metals complex is under pressure. Gold is breaking back below 4,400 down nearly 2%. Other precious metals are down closer to 5%. Copper is getting hit after reports that the administration may call off tariffs. Ag is modestly higher, there are reports that China purchased 1ml tons of soybeans. Crypto has accelerated to the downside amidst the risk off sentiment.
Earnings
After-Market: AVAV, AEO, NAVN, SKIL, WLTH
Pre-Market (Thrs): CAL, DBI, M, MCFT, TEN, VNCE
After-Market (Thrs): ADBE, CPRT, DSGX, ORCL, RH, ZUMZ
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday US equities were under almost as much pressure as Drake Maye last night. The S&P 500 fell ~0.5% with broad based weakness leaving the equal weight version of the index down 1%. AI tech hardware outperformed again amidst positive management commentary at sell side conferences and as recent model releases continue to receive positive reviews, outside of the guy who is calling for the extinction of the human race. Oil prices extended to the upside with ICE Brent breaking back above $100. This along with some disappointment in the size of the announced Treasury buyback pushed yields higher, despite a reasonably strong 10yr auction.
S&P futures tried to bounce modestly overnight but have turned lower as oil prices have accelerated to the upside. Houthis have reportedly seized control of the port city of Mocha in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait sending ICE Brent it up >4% currently trading above $105. This morning’s PPI was largely in line with expectations but did accelerate from last month. This along with the move in oil is weighing on Treasuries with yields up >5bps across the curve. President Trump’s pledge to pay a $5k dividend if Republicans win mid-terms is not necessarily helping the cause. S&P futures have accelerated to the downside looking down ~0.5%, which would put the cash index right around its 50d ma.
Headline PPI was inline on a m.m basis (+0.4%) and last month was revised up from 0.0% to 0.1%. Core m.m of 0.2% was slightly below the 0.3% consensus, while core y.y was inline (+4.6%). Final demand goods rose 1.1% m/m but more than 75% of that was Energy. Ex-Energy and Food it was up 0.4%. Final Demand Services was up 0.1%, driven by transportation and warehouse services. Trade services, a volatile measure (i.e. margins) fell 0.2%. Labor market conditions remain unchanged. Weekly initial jobless claims of 206K were basically inline with consensus (205K) and last week (207K). Continuing claims of 1774K were also roughly in line (1780K). Existing Home Sales come out after the open along with Wholesale Inventories, Crude and Natural gas inventories. A 30Y bond auction will also see a lot of attention, given the rate moves and coming after yesterday's very strong 10y auction. Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report odds for a rate hike next week have moved up to ~75%. The USD is bouncing modestly.
- US 2yr +7bps to 4.50%, 5yr +7bps to 4.69%, 10yr +6bps to 4.91%, 30yr +5bps to 5.35%
- USD index: +$0.27 to $99.08
Global markets were mostly lower overnight as oil prices kept traders on edge. The Nikkei bucked the weakness ending slightly higher with financials outperforming. There continued to be some hawkish central bank commentary ahead of next week’s rate decision. India’s Sensex also ended with modest gains. Markets in China/Hong Kong were under pressure. There have been some slightly positive trade headlines ahead of President Xi’s trip to the US. European indices are near session lows down between 0.5% - 1%. The ECB hiked rates by 25bps as expected.
Energy and ag commodities that are directly impacted by the global conflicts are moving higher. The metals complex is under pressure. Gold is breaking back below 4,400 down nearly 2%. Other precious metals are down closer to 5%. Copper is getting hit after reports that the administration may call off tariffs. Ag is modestly higher, there are reports that China purchased 1ml tons of soybeans. Crypto has accelerated to the downside amidst the risk off sentiment.
Earnings
After-Market: AVAV, AEO, NAVN, SKIL, WLTH
Pre-Market (Thrs): CAL, DBI, M, MCFT, TEN, VNCE
After-Market (Thrs): ADBE, CPRT, DSGX, ORCL, RH, ZUMZ
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 206k vs. 205k cons., prior 206k
- Continuing Claims: 1.774 vs. 1.78ml cons., prior 1.779ml
- PPI: 0.4%/4.6%m.m/y.y vs. 0.4%/4.6% cons., prior 0%/4.2%
- Core PPI: 0.2%/4.6% m.m/y.y vs. 0.3%/4.6% cons., prior 0.2%/4.2%
- 10:00 Existing Home Sales
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
- 1:00 30yr Auction
- China Vehicle Sales: -5.1% prior -0.3%
- ECB Rate Decision: Hiked by 25bps to 2.65% as expected
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