NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 8/12/2025
DOW 44,487 (+512), S&P 500 6,441 (+68), Russell 2000 2,270 (+54), NYSE FANG+ 15,463 (+200), ICE Brent Crude $66.15/barrel (-$0.48), Gold $3,400/oz (-$5), Bitcoin ~119.6k (+828)
US equities are trading broadly higher following this morning’s CPI print. S&P futures were around unchanged heading into the release and jumped after the report, though largely inline, likely provides the Fed a new data point that can justify lowering rates. Stocks are trading at the highs of the day as we head into the afternoon. Gains are broad-based with the both the S&P 500 and equal weight up 1%, while the Russell outperforms, up 2%. Gains are also nicely split between Growth and Value factors.
Looking at the sectors, Comm Services is outpacing everyone, up 2%. Meta’s >3% gain is a big part of that, but the rest of the sector is trading up as well, including Alphabet >1% and most media stocks up at least 2% (Paramount Skydance +8%). Info Tech is up ~1% with semis particularly strong (ICE Semi index +3%). Airline stocks are trading sharply higher in what seems to be a response to higher airline fees in the CPI. That has pushed the Dow Transports index up almost 3%. Travel and Leisure names are also seeing broad strength. Yield-sensitive Utilities and Real Estate are the only sectors lower.
Indexes and Sectors
As has become routine, hawks and doves could both find reasons to say the CPI report reinforces their views, but equities have leaned into the dovish view. The Hawks can point to inflation that remains well-above the Fed’s 2% target on both headline and core, as well as the acceleration in core this month, from 2.9% y/y to 3.1%. Core CPI m.m was inline with estimates, ticking up from 0.2% last month to 0.3%. Headline CPI was also inline m.m., falling from 0.3% in June to 0.2%. On a y.y look, headline rose 2.7%, unchanged from last month.
However, the inline-ish numbers overall and lack of blatant tariff-effects is providing cover to say it was a cool, dovish print. Interestingly it was the service areas that impacted the report most- shelter prices rose 0.2%, unchanged from last month and contributed the largest inflation impact. Medical care rose 0.8%, up from 0.6%. Airline fare jumped 4.0% after three straight negative prints. Digging deeper, food was unchanged, down from a 0.3% increase last month. Looking at potential tariff-impacted goods, apparel price growth slowed from 0.4% to 0.1% m.m. New car prices were unchanged after falling 0.3% the prior two months. Household furnishings rose 0.7% but that was down from 1.0%. Major appliances showed a sharp decline, from 1.9% to -2.2%.
Treasury yields were unchanged going into the print and the moves after it show the diverging CPI narratives. The 2-year yield fell immediately on the data and is down 4bp on rate cut expectations. Odds of a September cut moved from 86% yesterday to 94% currently, and odds of 3 more cuts by year-end rose from 45% to 52%. The longer end also initially fell but soon reversed and 10/30yr yields are now 1-3bp higher as inflation remains persistently higher than target. The US Dollar Index was about flat but fell after the data and is just above the day’s lows, trying to cling to 98 and the 50d ma.
Government yields:
Other Asset Classes
Major European markets finished higher outside of the DAX, which ended slightly lower but off its worst levels after tagging its 50d ma once again, a major support level since mid-June. The German ZEW sentiment survey of current conditions and expectations both deteriorated from last month, as did the readings for the Euro Area. Japan came back from a holiday on Monday feeling refreshed, jumping 2% and trading above its closing record before pulling back a bit. China was broadly higher. The latest tariff deadline extension was nice to see but largely expected. Following the removal of export restrictions of Nvidia’s and AMD chips to China, it was reported that the Chinese government is urging companies to not use the chips, especially for government work. However, yesterday President Trump said he would consider allowing Nvidia to sell a scaled down version of the current Blackwell chip to China.
Global Indexes
A few corporate news bullets: Elon Musk launched a broadside against Apple, claiming antitrust violations that make it impossible for any other AI company (i.e. xAI) to reach #1 in Apple’s App store. BigBear.ai joined C3.ai in trading sharply lower following earnings, with the company citing weakness and disruptions in federal contracts. And after calling for his firing, President Trump met with Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan and described the meeting as “very interesting”. Cisco reports after the close tomorrow and CoreWeave reports tonight and will provide further insight into tech and AI trends.
Earnings:
Economic Data:
- Equities broadly higher
- Hawk? Dove? CPI has something for everyone
- Most sectors higher led by Comm Services
- Short-end Treasury yields lower, longer end moves up
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
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US equities are trading broadly higher following this morning’s CPI print. S&P futures were around unchanged heading into the release and jumped after the report, though largely inline, likely provides the Fed a new data point that can justify lowering rates. Stocks are trading at the highs of the day as we head into the afternoon. Gains are broad-based with the both the S&P 500 and equal weight up 1%, while the Russell outperforms, up 2%. Gains are also nicely split between Growth and Value factors.
Looking at the sectors, Comm Services is outpacing everyone, up 2%. Meta’s >3% gain is a big part of that, but the rest of the sector is trading up as well, including Alphabet >1% and most media stocks up at least 2% (Paramount Skydance +8%). Info Tech is up ~1% with semis particularly strong (ICE Semi index +3%). Airline stocks are trading sharply higher in what seems to be a response to higher airline fees in the CPI. That has pushed the Dow Transports index up almost 3%. Travel and Leisure names are also seeing broad strength. Yield-sensitive Utilities and Real Estate are the only sectors lower.
Indexes and Sectors
As has become routine, hawks and doves could both find reasons to say the CPI report reinforces their views, but equities have leaned into the dovish view. The Hawks can point to inflation that remains well-above the Fed’s 2% target on both headline and core, as well as the acceleration in core this month, from 2.9% y/y to 3.1%. Core CPI m.m was inline with estimates, ticking up from 0.2% last month to 0.3%. Headline CPI was also inline m.m., falling from 0.3% in June to 0.2%. On a y.y look, headline rose 2.7%, unchanged from last month.
However, the inline-ish numbers overall and lack of blatant tariff-effects is providing cover to say it was a cool, dovish print. Interestingly it was the service areas that impacted the report most- shelter prices rose 0.2%, unchanged from last month and contributed the largest inflation impact. Medical care rose 0.8%, up from 0.6%. Airline fare jumped 4.0% after three straight negative prints. Digging deeper, food was unchanged, down from a 0.3% increase last month. Looking at potential tariff-impacted goods, apparel price growth slowed from 0.4% to 0.1% m.m. New car prices were unchanged after falling 0.3% the prior two months. Household furnishings rose 0.7% but that was down from 1.0%. Major appliances showed a sharp decline, from 1.9% to -2.2%.
Treasury yields were unchanged going into the print and the moves after it show the diverging CPI narratives. The 2-year yield fell immediately on the data and is down 4bp on rate cut expectations. Odds of a September cut moved from 86% yesterday to 94% currently, and odds of 3 more cuts by year-end rose from 45% to 52%. The longer end also initially fell but soon reversed and 10/30yr yields are now 1-3bp higher as inflation remains persistently higher than target. The US Dollar Index was about flat but fell after the data and is just above the day’s lows, trying to cling to 98 and the 50d ma.
Government yields:
- US 2yr -4bps to 3.73%, 5yr -2bps to 3.82%, 10yr +1bps to 4.29%, 30yr +3bps to 4.89%
- USD index: -$0.51 to $97.86
Other Asset Classes
Major European markets finished higher outside of the DAX, which ended slightly lower but off its worst levels after tagging its 50d ma once again, a major support level since mid-June. The German ZEW sentiment survey of current conditions and expectations both deteriorated from last month, as did the readings for the Euro Area. Japan came back from a holiday on Monday feeling refreshed, jumping 2% and trading above its closing record before pulling back a bit. China was broadly higher. The latest tariff deadline extension was nice to see but largely expected. Following the removal of export restrictions of Nvidia’s and AMD chips to China, it was reported that the Chinese government is urging companies to not use the chips, especially for government work. However, yesterday President Trump said he would consider allowing Nvidia to sell a scaled down version of the current Blackwell chip to China.
Global Indexes
A few corporate news bullets: Elon Musk launched a broadside against Apple, claiming antitrust violations that make it impossible for any other AI company (i.e. xAI) to reach #1 in Apple’s App store. BigBear.ai joined C3.ai in trading sharply lower following earnings, with the company citing weakness and disruptions in federal contracts. And after calling for his firing, President Trump met with Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan and described the meeting as “very interesting”. Cisco reports after the close tomorrow and CoreWeave reports tonight and will provide further insight into tech and AI trends.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AII, AP, CAE, CAVA, CRWV, DFDV, EC, ECG, ECO, GCTS, HRB, KLC, LITE, NVGS, RBOT, SKYH, SLND, SMWB, SRFM, TISI
- Pre-Market (Wed): ALUR, ARCO, EAT, LOAR, LOCL, MSGE, PFGC, VG
Economic Data:
- US:
- July CPI m.m. / y.y: 0.2% / 2.7% vs. 0.2% / 2.8% cons., prior 0.3% / 2.7%
- Core CPI m.m / y.y: 0.3% / 3.1% vs. 0.3% / 3.0% cons., prior 0.2% / 2.9%
- NFIB Business Optimism Index: 100.3 vs. 98.6 cons., prior 98.6
- Fed Speakers: Barkin, Schmid
- 2:00pm Treasury Monthly Budget Statement
- 4:30pm API Crude Inventories
- July CPI m.m. / y.y: 0.2% / 2.7% vs. 0.2% / 2.8% cons., prior 0.3% / 2.7%
- Global
- RBA Rate Decision: Cut 25bp as expected
- UK Payrolls change: -8K vs. prior -26k
- Europe ZEW Economic Expectations: 25.1 vs. 28.1 cons., prior 36.1
- Germany ZEW Economic Expectations: 34.7 vs. 40 cons., prior 52.7
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