STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 10/28/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Happy Fed Day,
Yesterday ahead of the FOMC rate decision and a big day of earnings US markets moved higher. Tech led to the upside extending Monday’s rally with semiconductor and memory stocks up >5% for the week. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% while the equal weight was able to squeak out a slight gain as some of the recent defensive leadership pulled back. The Russell 2k outperformed closing up 1.5% as the speculative thematic sectors that have been under unrelenting pressure for the past two months bounced, in what seemed like a bout of short covering including: space, quantum, nuclear, rare earths and robotics.
Last night the Knicks got off the schneid and the earnings spigot is now wide open. Futures are pointing to a modestly higher open. The sheer number of earnings is pretty overwhelming. SK Hynix (+7%) blew out results after the close. Analog chip stocks are under some pressure after NXPI (-8%) earnings. Ahead of earnings tonight Alphabet is trading up 1% after reports that OpenAI will purchase TPUs. Within the AI/data center infrastructure GE Vernova and Vertiv both had very strong numbers. Visa is trading slightly lower despite its solid results. The response to healthcare earnings have been mixed (Pos - BIIB, GEHC, LH; Neg - BSX, GSK).
Treasury yields are around unchanged ahead of this afternoon’s rate decision. Despite the recent round of hot inflation data, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this afternoon as officials suggested there was no rush to further tighten policy after the September hike. The focus will be on Chair Warsh’s press conference at 2:30. Markets are already pricing in rate hikes in December and March which seems to skew the risk reward as it seems difficult for him to be more hawkish than that. The USD index continues to hold above $102.
Markets in Asia were higher overnight night with tech rallying after gains in the US and earnings. South Korea was up >6% after the SK Hynix earnings. The company handily beat results, highlighted that it had long term agreements with 14 customers covering >50% of its production capacity in both 2027/2028 and that the company expected a supply shortage through 2030. The Nikkei was up ~1% with tech stocks leading. Advantest was up ~3% after earnings, Kioxia was up >10% on the SK Hynix results while Softbank was up >4% recouping some of the recent losses. Outside of tech breadth was poor. The BOJ is expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets tomorrow. European indices were trading slightly lower overnight but have just ticked positive. AI tech/infrastructure exposed stocks offsetting losses elsewhere. Within financials Santander is down 4% after its earnings while Deutsche Bank and Standard Charter are up >3% after earnings. In the FTSE 100 GSK and Unilever are both getting hit after earnings.
After pulling back modestly over the last couple days oil prices are bouncing amidst reports that the administration is considering another round of strikes after midterms and reports of attacks on Saudi refineries. Oil inventories will be released after the open. Nat gas is up >3% in both the US and Europe. Metals traded lower overnight but are off the worst levels. Ag is modestly higher. Crypto was modestly higher overnight but has turned lower over the last couple hours. Robinhood is trading down >5% after its earnings highlighting weakness in their crypto revenue/volumes.
Earnings:
After-Market: ACGL, APAM, BKR, BXP, CAKE, CHE, CR, CSGP, CZR, ENPH, EQT, ESS, EXLS, EXR, FE, FFIV, HIW, HOOD, ICLR, LOGI, LSTR, MANH, MCRI, NOV, NXPI, OI, OKE, PPG, RNR, RRC, RUSHA, SKHY, ST, STAG, STX, TER, TRMK, UCTT, UHS, V, VTR, WERN, WM, WPC
Pre-Market: ADP, AON, APH, AVTR, BASF, BIIB, BLKB, BSX, CHEF, CHRW, CLH, DAN, DB, DBD, DINO, EAT, ETSY, EXTR, FELE, FLEX, FTV, GEHC, GEV, GNRC, GPI, GRMN, GSK, HAYW, IEX, IP, JLL, KEX, LFUS, LH, LII, MAS, Mercedes Benz, NI, ODFL, OTIS, PAG, PB, PRG, PSN, PSX, SAN, STLA, TEL, TEX, UE, UBS, UL, VFC, VRT, WING
After-Market: ALGN, AWK, BHE, CHDN, CMG, COHU, CVNA, EBAY, EG, EHC, EIG, EPR, EQIX, F, FDX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, GEN, GKOS, GNW, GOOGL, HONA, INVH, KLAC, MAA, MGM, MSFT, MTH, MUSA, NOW, NXT, OLED, ORLY, PBI, PI, PLXS, PPC, QTWO, RJF, Samsung Electronics, SFM, TENB, THG, TMUS, TYL, VICI
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday ahead of the FOMC rate decision and a big day of earnings US markets moved higher. Tech led to the upside extending Monday’s rally with semiconductor and memory stocks up >5% for the week. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% while the equal weight was able to squeak out a slight gain as some of the recent defensive leadership pulled back. The Russell 2k outperformed closing up 1.5% as the speculative thematic sectors that have been under unrelenting pressure for the past two months bounced, in what seemed like a bout of short covering including: space, quantum, nuclear, rare earths and robotics.
Last night the Knicks got off the schneid and the earnings spigot is now wide open. Futures are pointing to a modestly higher open. The sheer number of earnings is pretty overwhelming. SK Hynix (+7%) blew out results after the close. Analog chip stocks are under some pressure after NXPI (-8%) earnings. Ahead of earnings tonight Alphabet is trading up 1% after reports that OpenAI will purchase TPUs. Within the AI/data center infrastructure GE Vernova and Vertiv both had very strong numbers. Visa is trading slightly lower despite its solid results. The response to healthcare earnings have been mixed (Pos - BIIB, GEHC, LH; Neg - BSX, GSK).
Treasury yields are around unchanged ahead of this afternoon’s rate decision. Despite the recent round of hot inflation data, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this afternoon as officials suggested there was no rush to further tighten policy after the September hike. The focus will be on Chair Warsh’s press conference at 2:30. Markets are already pricing in rate hikes in December and March which seems to skew the risk reward as it seems difficult for him to be more hawkish than that. The USD index continues to hold above $102.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.75%, 5yr +1bps to 4.85%, 10yr -0bps to 5.00%, 30yr -1bps to 5.30%
- USD index: +$0.02 to $102.18
Markets in Asia were higher overnight night with tech rallying after gains in the US and earnings. South Korea was up >6% after the SK Hynix earnings. The company handily beat results, highlighted that it had long term agreements with 14 customers covering >50% of its production capacity in both 2027/2028 and that the company expected a supply shortage through 2030. The Nikkei was up ~1% with tech stocks leading. Advantest was up ~3% after earnings, Kioxia was up >10% on the SK Hynix results while Softbank was up >4% recouping some of the recent losses. Outside of tech breadth was poor. The BOJ is expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets tomorrow. European indices were trading slightly lower overnight but have just ticked positive. AI tech/infrastructure exposed stocks offsetting losses elsewhere. Within financials Santander is down 4% after its earnings while Deutsche Bank and Standard Charter are up >3% after earnings. In the FTSE 100 GSK and Unilever are both getting hit after earnings.
After pulling back modestly over the last couple days oil prices are bouncing amidst reports that the administration is considering another round of strikes after midterms and reports of attacks on Saudi refineries. Oil inventories will be released after the open. Nat gas is up >3% in both the US and Europe. Metals traded lower overnight but are off the worst levels. Ag is modestly higher. Crypto was modestly higher overnight but has turned lower over the last couple hours. Robinhood is trading down >5% after its earnings highlighting weakness in their crypto revenue/volumes.
Earnings:
After-Market: ACGL, APAM, BKR, BXP, CAKE, CHE, CR, CSGP, CZR, ENPH, EQT, ESS, EXLS, EXR, FE, FFIV, HIW, HOOD, ICLR, LOGI, LSTR, MANH, MCRI, NOV, NXPI, OI, OKE, PPG, RNR, RRC, RUSHA, SKHY, ST, STAG, STX, TER, TRMK, UCTT, UHS, V, VTR, WERN, WM, WPC
Pre-Market: ADP, AON, APH, AVTR, BASF, BIIB, BLKB, BSX, CHEF, CHRW, CLH, DAN, DB, DBD, DINO, EAT, ETSY, EXTR, FELE, FLEX, FTV, GEHC, GEV, GNRC, GPI, GRMN, GSK, HAYW, IEX, IP, JLL, KEX, LFUS, LH, LII, MAS, Mercedes Benz, NI, ODFL, OTIS, PAG, PB, PRG, PSN, PSX, SAN, STLA, TEL, TEX, UE, UBS, UL, VFC, VRT, WING
After-Market: ALGN, AWK, BHE, CHDN, CMG, COHU, CVNA, EBAY, EG, EHC, EIG, EPR, EQIX, F, FDX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, GEN, GKOS, GNW, GOOGL, HONA, INVH, KLAC, MAA, MGM, MSFT, MTH, MUSA, NOW, NXT, OLED, ORLY, PBI, PI, PLXS, PPC, QTWO, RJF, Samsung Electronics, SFM, TENB, THG, TMUS, TYL, VICI
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: 3.4% w/w -5.3%; 30yr Rate 7.37% prior 7.41%
- Trade Balance: -$134.9B vs. -$130B cons., prior -$132.1B
- Wholesale Inventories: 0.6% vs. 0.5% cons., prior 0.5%
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
- 2:00 FOMC Rate Decision
- Australia Inflation: 0.8%/4.3% m.m/y.y vs. 0.7%/4.2% cons., prior 0.4%/4%
- India Industrial Production: 6.7% y.y vs. 7.2% cons., prior 7.8%
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