NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 12/11/2025
Good morning,
US equities finished yesterday’s Fed Day higher, closing near the day’s best levels following Powell’s press conference as commentary didn’t evolve into anything more Hawkish than expected. Small caps outperformed though riskier areas like thematic baskets were under pressure. The S&P 500 ticked above 6900 at its high. Treasury yields bull-steepened with the short-end down ~7bp while the long end fell ~3bp. You can read our Fed Recap here. This morning futures are pulling back but are off the overnight lows. Most of the pressure is centered on Tech names as Oracle falls >10% following earnings last night, despite some rather robust numbers overall that included an increase in FY27 sales guidance. The concerns around spending remain firmly in place though and that is weighing on shares, with a big negative cash flow print and increased opex guidance.
We got some mixed signals from the jobless claims data this morning. Weely initial claims jumped from 192k to 236k, well above expectations. However continuing claims showed a sharp decline. The prior week included Thanksgiving and that could be exerting some impact on the numbers. Averaging the two initial claims reports gives you 214k, a little above the 4-week average of 216.75k. Markets didn’t react too much to the data, with futures and yields ticking slightly lower. Yields are down 2-3bp across the curve and the US Dollar Index is lower as well.
Major European indexes are trading higher. The SNB held its policy rate at 0% as expected and the ECB decision will have its rate decision next week. Chinese equities were flat to lower. Growth/Tech names were down, although Moore Threads, China’s chipmaker that debuted last week, rose 28%. Investors are also looking over pronouncements from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) regarding policy priorities for 2026. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%. Tech names including Softbank followed Oracle’s lead lower. A 20y JGB auction was relatively positive, helping push yields lower.
Economic Data:
US:
US equities finished yesterday’s Fed Day higher, closing near the day’s best levels following Powell’s press conference as commentary didn’t evolve into anything more Hawkish than expected. Small caps outperformed though riskier areas like thematic baskets were under pressure. The S&P 500 ticked above 6900 at its high. Treasury yields bull-steepened with the short-end down ~7bp while the long end fell ~3bp. You can read our Fed Recap here. This morning futures are pulling back but are off the overnight lows. Most of the pressure is centered on Tech names as Oracle falls >10% following earnings last night, despite some rather robust numbers overall that included an increase in FY27 sales guidance. The concerns around spending remain firmly in place though and that is weighing on shares, with a big negative cash flow print and increased opex guidance.
We got some mixed signals from the jobless claims data this morning. Weely initial claims jumped from 192k to 236k, well above expectations. However continuing claims showed a sharp decline. The prior week included Thanksgiving and that could be exerting some impact on the numbers. Averaging the two initial claims reports gives you 214k, a little above the 4-week average of 216.75k. Markets didn’t react too much to the data, with futures and yields ticking slightly lower. Yields are down 2-3bp across the curve and the US Dollar Index is lower as well.
- US 2yr -3bps to 3.51%, 5yr -5bps to 3.69%, 10yr -4bps to 4.12%, 30yr -2bps to 4.77%
- USD index: -$0.43 to $98.34
Major European indexes are trading higher. The SNB held its policy rate at 0% as expected and the ECB decision will have its rate decision next week. Chinese equities were flat to lower. Growth/Tech names were down, although Moore Threads, China’s chipmaker that debuted last week, rose 28%. Investors are also looking over pronouncements from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) regarding policy priorities for 2026. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%. Tech names including Softbank followed Oracle’s lead lower. A 20y JGB auction was relatively positive, helping push yields lower.
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 236k vs. 220k cons., prior 192k
- Continuing Claims: vs.1.838k vs. 1.95ml cons., prior 1.937ml
- Trade Balance: vs.-$52.8B vs. -$63.3B cons. prior $-59.6B
- 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
- 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
- 1:00 30yr Auction
- Switzerland rate decision: Hold at 0% as expected
- Australia Employment: -56.5k prior 53.5k
- Australia Unemployment: 4.3% vs. 4.4% cons,. prior 4.3%
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