STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 6/29/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
The S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 all hugged the unchanged line on Friday as the Russell reconstitution drove big, though expected, volumes to end the week. The equal-weight outperformed however, finishing up 0.3%.  Tech was mixed as the white-hot memory names gave back a good chunk of their Micron-earnings-induced gains on Thursday, while hyperscalers and software bounced. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2%, closing just below its 50d ma on Friday after toying with the level the whole week.
 
The Yankees are doing a terrible job of replacing the Knicks as a source of commentary for us on the MAC Desk. Getting swept by the Red Sox over the weekend? Bleh. As for the Mets…let’s just move on to macro topics. The US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend, but an agreement to end the latest exchange and hold a new round of talks on Tuesday was reached. With a low level of economic and earnings data today, corporate news flow is center stage today. Equity futures traded higher overnight and are near best levels as we begin a holiday-shortened week. The S&P looks poised to regain the 50d at the Open.
 

 
 
Tech, and the broader market overall, continues to grapple with the compute price issue. In the wake of Apple (and Microsoft) announcing sharp prices increases due to surging chip prices, the company has lobbied the US government for approval to buy memory chips from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Separately, the FT reported that Google was unable to meet Meta’s entire Gemini capacity requests, which delayed some of Meta’s internal AI projects.    
 
It may be a short, thinly traded holiday week, but there’s a lot of action in the media and telecom space today. SpaceX (+2%) and Charter (+25%) are discussing partnering on consumer mobile phone service, according to reports. BT Group (+1%) and Verizon (-1%) are merging their international operations in a JV with ~$4b in revenue, allowing both carriers to focus on their respective domestic markets.  Comcast (+20%) announced it was splitting its media (NBCUniversal) and cable/connectivity businesses into two publicly traded companies. Also, Rocket Lab  (+10%) is buying satellite phone operator Iridium (+20%) for $8B, creating a more robust challenge to SpaceX’s Starlink. It also follows Amazon’s pending deal to acquire Globalstar. There’s more action in other sectors as well. Williams (flat) is close to acquiring Momentum Midstream for ~$6B according to reports, adding to Williams’ gas pipeline capacity. Construction materials supplier Martin Marietta (-3%) is merging with Lhoist North America in a $13.5B (EV) deal.
 
US treasury yields are slightly higher across most of the curve while the US Dollar Index is slightly lower, continuing to pull back from its recent run up to 101.50.
 
  • US 2yr +1bps to 4.11%, 5yr +1bps to 4.14%, 10yr +1bps to 4.38%, 30yr -1bps to 4.86%
  • USD index: -$0.09 to $101.04
 
European equities aren’t doing much, hovering around unchanged. The favorite to become the new UK PM, Andy Burnham, gives a speech on the UK economy today. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.2% overnight. Spain CPI was largely inline while EU lending rose modestly. Tech was soft following US action on Friday. In China the Hang Seng and Shanghai were both up over 1%. Hang Seng Tech bounced over 3%. Profits for computer, communication and electronic equipment makers jumped over 100% through May according to data released this weekend. Baidu’s AI Chip segment Kunlunxin is eyeing a $50B Hong Kong IPO, according to reports, which may include investors buying multiples of their IPO allocations in the company’s chips. South Korea’s Samsung and HK Hynix will expand chipmaking capacity by investing over $500B to build new fabs, collaborating with the Korean government.    
 

 
 
Brent crude is trading up about 1%, still below its 200d ma ~$75. US nat gas is lower but Dutch gas is up 3%. Precious metals are lower. Gold is giving back Friday’s gains as it trades ~$4050. Bitcoin and ETH are flat to slightly higher, as Bitcoin tries to regain $60K. Strategy announced a series of programs to shore up support for its numerous investment vehicles like STRC. The initiatives include (1) a USD Reserve policy (currently ~$2.5B) that directs Reserves to be used only to support the payment of dividends on Strategy's preferred stock and debt interest, and (2) selling up to $1.25B in Bitcoin to fund the reserve.
 

 
Earnings:
  • Pre-Market: None
  • After-Market: AVAV, CNXC
  • Pre-Market (Tues): NKE, PRGS, STZ,
Economic Data:
US:
  • 10:30am Dallas Manufacturing
                                                                                                                               
Global:
  • China Jan-May Industrial Profits: +18.8% y.y vs 18.2% Jan-April
    • May Industrial Profits: 21.1% vs 24.7% prior
  • Japan May Retail Sales y.y: 5.3% vs 3.2% cons, prior 2.8%  
  • India Industrial Production y.y: 5.1% vs 4.7% cons, prior 4.9%
  • Spain CPI y.y: 3.2% vs 3.2% cons, prior 3.2%
  • Core: 2.9% vs prior 3.0%
  • Spain Retail Sales m.m: 0.6% vs prior -1.5%
  • Europe Loans to Companies / Households (May): 4.0% / 3.1% vs prior 3.4% / 3.0%
  • Europe Economic Sentiment: 95.0 vs 94.3 cons, prior 93.7
  • 1:30pm Lagarde Speech

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