by Michael P. Reinking, CFA

Published on 4/27/26 (a/o 12:45 pm)

After the historic rally since the start of the quarter most major indices spent last week consolidating. The S&P 500 traded in a ~1.5% range, ending modestly higher with technology doing most of the heavy lifting. The NYSE 100 index was up >2% but the Semiconductor index, which entered the weekend on an 18-session win streak, was the star of the show up >10% for the week and 50% YTD.

Iran news during the weekend was somewhat quiet and overshadowed by the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ dinner, which thankfully was stopped before anything truly terrible happened. One of the main reasons for the quietness was because President Trump didn’t send negotiators to Pakistan for another round of talks, though he added that talks didn’t have to take place in person. Axios and others then reported that the Administration is mulling over a new proposal from Iran, which includes reopening the Strait and lifting the US blockade, while negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program would come later.

Oil prices are back near the pre-ceasefire highs however; equity markets have taken the weekend’s news in stride ahead of a week chock full of catalysts. This week the world’s major central banks all have rate decisions including what could be Fed Chair Powell’s last on Wednesday. This week is also the peak of earnings season in the US, at least as measured by market capitalization, with >40% of the S&P 500 reporting this week including the hyperscalers on Wednesday evening. As we highlighted in Friday’s recap, earnings have been strong with >80% of companies in the S&P 500 beating both EPS and revenue estimates.

Equities are pulling back modestly as we’re seeing some profit taking in areas of the market that have moved sharply higher recently. This includes the semiconductors which had gone parabolic over the last week. That being said the pullback was pretty shallow and major indices have clawed back to around unchanged. 

The only US economic data released today was the Dallas Manufacturing. While the headline reading fell to -2.3 but the company outlook turned positive. The underlying growth indicators were positive with new orders and production both increasing. Employment held steady but hours worked increased. Unsurprisingly prices components increased. 

Treasury yields are up a couple basis points across the curve while the USD index is a touch lower. This afternoon there are 2 and 5yr note auctions. 

Within the S&P 500 3 of 11 sectors are higher. Communication services is the best performing sector up >1% helped by strong earnings from Verizon. The company beat on both the top and bottom lines and guided to the high end of postpaid additions. Wireless net adds were positive for the first time in Q1 since 2013 and broadband was strong increasing 341k, which comes after a big decline at Charter on Friday. On the call the company highlighted the multi-billion dollar revenue opportunities from integrating fiber and 5G assets into AI infrastructure for hyperscalers and enterprises, with more details to come in the next 3-6 months. Financials are also outperforming with pretty broad based strength across banks and insurance. Exchanges and crypto exposed stocks are underperforming. Utilities are also a touch higher.

Consumer staples and discretionary are the worst performing sectors. Domino’s Pizza is down ~10% an EPS miss and disappointing US and international comps. BASF announced a new round of price hikes on its plastics products to counter rising input costs. Materials are down ~0.5% with some weakness in chemicals and gold miners. Overseas BASF announced a new round of price hikes on its plastics products to counter rising input costs. 

Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. Japan’s Nikkei added over 1%. Tech was strong though SoftBank pulled back after last week’s rally. Google and Microsoft are reported to join Nvidia, Meta and OpenAI as candidates for SoftBank’s 10GW Ohio data center. The BOJ will have its rate decision tomorrow, where its largely expected to keep them on hold. China was mixed with semiconductor names strong in both Hong Kong and mainland as DeepSeek v4 was launched. The launch was reportedly delayed so developers could better integrate the software with Chinese hardware. Meanwhile, Chinese regulators blocked Meta’s acquisition of AI startup Manus. Economic data was positive, with Industrial profits rising in March. European were higher ahead of the US open but faded in the back half of the day to end modestly lower. There’s another round of political uncertainty in the UK with reports of a push to remove PM Starmer. The FTSE is trading around flat, lagging in the region. The ECB and BOE will hold their policy meetings on Thursday.

As mentioned earlier the energy complex is moving higher again. The metals complex is pulling back. Agriculture commodities are on the move higher as fertilizer concerns mount. Crypto turned lower overnight after Bitcoin failed just under 80k again and took another leg lower after the open. The Bitcoin 2026 conference is ongoing in Vegas. The trading fits with the pullback in some other speculative areas of the market. Peter Schiff was once again critical of Strategy’s most recent purchases. There still hasn’t been any movement on the Clarity Act which is an overhang as the clock is running out. 

Looking ahead to tomorrow earning will start to ramp up. The BOJ has its rate decision overnight. US economic data includes ADP weekly jobs consumer confidence and home prices. 

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