STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 7/27/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 52,093 (+146), S&P 500 7,402 (-10), Russell 2000 2,937 (+7), NYSE FANG+ 16,911 (+87), ICE Brent Crude $88.46/barrel (-$8.32), Gold $4,079/oz (+$8), Bitcoin ~64.9k (+835)
  • Early optimism fades
  • Oil falls on Iran détente
  • Nvidia backstop brings back circular financing concerns
  • S&P 500 fails at 50d ma again
  • Key catalysts on the horizon
  • Yields hit new YTD high
  • Breaking key technical levels
  • Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
  • Inside the ICE House
  • Episode 548: Offerpad CFO Peter Knag on Transforming How Americans Sell Homes
  • ETF Central: GTS Securities Principal Reginald Browne
  • NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
  • Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Last week was a mixed one for equity markets. Semis/memory bounced early in the week recouping some of the previous week’s losses. However, the group ended the week under pressure as investors struggled to come to grips with the increasing Capex guidance from Alphabet and Tesla and strong earnings were met with a sell the news response. As the US and Iran exchanged missile fire and the Red Sea became the most recent chokepoint for oil supplies. ICE Brent traded over $100 but also pulled back on Friday amidst reports that China was pushing for talks to resume. Treasury yields hit new YTD highs ahead of this week’s Fed rate decision with futures starting to price in a one in three possibility of a rate hike. The S&P 500 closed below its 50d ma for the second consecutive Friday though losses were modest with the index down 0.6% for the week. The rotational activity continued with the equal-weight version of the index ending slightly higher. 8 of 11 sectors ended the week in the green with energy, industrials and utilities leading to the upside.

Coming out of the weekend futures were pointing to higher open with oil prices pulling back sharply as US strikes were halted for two consecutive days. President Trump decided against an escalation with the hopes that a diplomatic resolution could be achieved though he has said that the window for a achieving a breakthrough is short. The other big story were the reports highlighting the continued investment by Nvidia to help finance the AI infrastructure buildout with reported potential commitments up to ~$1T since last Friday. This helped the tech complex rally at the open, but that strength was quickly met with selling as the circular financing narrative quickly took hold. Also taking the wind out of the sales was a report from the Information that China had begun domestically manufacturing DUV machines (deep ultraviolet lithography) which would be delivered to local chipmakers by the end of the year. ASML, which has dominated this market, sold off sharply in response with the ADR falling >10% from the pre-market high.  

The S&P 500 gapped up a little less than 1% to its 50d moving average but sold off during the first hour of trade giving back all of the gains retesting Friday’s lows before stabilizing. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is down 11pts to 7,401 (-0.2%), the Dow is up 151pts to 52,098 (+0.3%), while the Russell 2k is up 7pts to 2,937 (+0.3%). Most of the weakness is coming from the AI adjacent sectors with semi and memory stocks leading to the downside (SMH/DRAM -4%). The equal-weight version of the index is up 0.5% with staples, comm services, financials and healthcare outperforming. 
Quiet on the data front ahead of a big week of central bank rate decisions. Headline Durable Goods orders missed estimates, but Capital Goods (ex-defense and aircraft) rose 0.9%, slightly above estimates though down from last month’s 1.9% increase. Yields are modestly lower down 3-5bps across the curve, but not necessarily as large a move as one might expect given the oil decline. This afternoon the 5yr auction was weak with price tailing and bid-to-cover and indirect bid below recent averages.

  • US 2yr -3bps to 4.32%, 5yr -4bps to 4.40%, 10yr -4bps to 4.65%, 30yr -3bps to 5.13%
  • USD index: +$0.06 to $101.36
Asian markets closed modestly higher overnight. The Nikkei advanced 0.5%, bouncing from Friday’s tech led sell-off. However, major Japanese tech names were lower (Kioxia, SoftBank -3%) while the rest of the market was broadly higher. China’s markets saw broad gains as well. Memory maker CXMT rocketed up 466% on its first day of trading, boosting sentiment especially across the tech sector following Friday’s weakness. South Korea announced $950B in new AI initiatives involving South Korean and US tech firms, including the Nvidia/SK Hynix deal discussed above as well as a Samsung / Broadcom MOU for up to $200B. European indices rallied overnight with broad gains outside of the oil and utility names however, the indices did pull back from highs after the US open. On Friday President Trump threatened new tariffs on the EU over the continent’s fines on Google. Germany’s Ifo survey was better than expected and improved from last month’s reading, driven by an improvement in expectations that offset a lower reading on current conditions. The BOE’s rate decision will be on Thursday, sandwiched between the Fed the day before and Japan on Friday. 
Oil prices are down >7% with ICE Brent holding just above its 100d ma (just under $88). Natural gas is also lower, especially in Europe (TTF -10%). The primary precious metals tried to bounce but have given up most of the gains though platinum and palladium are higher. Ag is giving back last week’s rally.  Crypto moved higher throughout the weekend but also softened as the risk on enthusiasm has faded. Bitcoin is hovering around 65k continuing to hold above its 50d ma. Ethereum is outperforming retesting recent highs and its 100d ma again. 
Comm services is the best performing sector up >1.5% with Alphabet recoupling some of last week’s losses. Media stocks are also bouncing back. Staples are also up 1.5%. Tyson Foods is the best performing after the Department of Agriculture lifted its Mexican cattle import restrictions. This is also helping Lamb Weston, because you can’t have a burger without fries (the stock also had some PT increases after Friday’s earnings).  The oil pullback is also helping consumer stocks broadly with travel related names some of the biggest beneficiaries.

On the downside energy and technology are both down ~1.5% for reasons discussed above. It is notable within tech software is snapping back >4% after getting crushed last week. Time will tell whether this is just another short covering rally or if the sector is finally finding some interest after the solid reports from Service Now and SAP last week. Microsoft results later this week will be key. Utilities are down 1.5% with IPPs giving back last week’s strength. Industrials are also modestly lower with the AI beneficiaries under pressure. 
Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow the earnings train will pick up steam again. The economic data includes ADP Weekly jobs, consumer confidence and home prices. President Trump will also be meeting with Netanyahu.

Earnings:
After-Market: APLD, BLX, BRO, BRX, CDNS, CDP, CLS, ESI, FFIV, KFRC, KRC, LVMH, NE, NTB, NUE, PFG, RMBS, SSD, UDR, UHS, WELL
Pre-Market: AB, ABG, AMT, AXTA, BA, Barclays, CARR, CBU, CNC, DTE, ECL, GLW, GSK, HRI, DINO, HLT, HUBB, ITW, IVZ, IQV, JBLU, KO, Mercedes, OSK, PCAR, PYPL, PNR, PII, RCL, RITM, SPGI, SHW, TXT, TRU, Unilever, UPS, XYL
After-Market (Tues): AAT, AKR, APAM, ASH, ASM, AXS, BE, BRSP, BXP, CAR, CHE, CLW, CR, CSGP, CTO, ENPH, EXE, EXR, F, FCF, FE, GEF, HIW, KLAC, MIR, MDLZ, NBR, NOV, NXPI, OI, OMC, ORN, PDM, PPG, QUAD, RNST, ROG, SK Hynix, STAG, STX, TER, THG, TRTX, TTAM, UNM, V, VLTO, WM, WPC, ZWS

Economic Data:
US:
  • Durable Goods Orders m.m: 0.3% vs 2.5% cons, prior -4.0%
  • Ex-transports: 0.6% vs 0.8% cons, prior 1.8%
  • Ex-Defense, ex-air: 0.9% vs 0.8% cons, prior 1.9%

Global:
  • China Industrial Profits June y.y: 15.1% vs prior 21.1%
  • Germany Ifo Business Climate: 86.6 vs 86.0 cons, prior 85.7
  • Current Conditions: 86.5 vs 87.3 cons, prior 87.0
  • Expectations: 86.7 vs 84.8 cons, prior 84.3 

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