STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/6/26 (a/o 2:30 pm)
DOW 53,933 (-416), S&P 500 7,713 (-10), Russell 2000 3,007 (-13), NYSE FANG+ 18,422 (-12), ICE Brent Crude $82.55/barrel (+$3.10), Gold $4,301/oz (-$4), Bitcoin ~64.3k (-321)
- Equities pulling back modestly
- Oil and yields moving higher as "deal" details emerge
- Tech earnings mixed
- Fed drama
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- NYSE MAC Desk Q2 Earnings Preview: rAIsing the Bar: Strong earnings, higher expectations, and the challenge of sustaining momentum
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 548: Rubrik's Cal Al-Dhubaib on Securing AI Agents Without Slowing Innovations
- ETF Central: Baron Capital Head of ETF Solutions Matt Camuso
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday major US indices, ex-the Dow Jone Industrial Average, pulled back modestly after the very strong start in the month of August. It continued to be a very busy day of earnings which were broadly positive but tech stocks that reported were under pressure given the high expectations. Oil prices stabilized after a flare up in the Red Sea but that didn’t completely derail hopes for a deal to re-open the Strait. ISM services missed expectations with mixed underlying metrics; new orders increased, employment contracted and pricing pressures remained elevated. Treasury yields ended the day around unchanged levels. Probably the most notable price action happened in the metals complex which moved sharply higher amidst the recent USD weakness and easing rate hike expectations. Materials (commodity strength) and healthcare (LLY/AMGN/CRL earnings) were the only two sectors with meaningful gains. Energy and communication services were both down >2%. The latter got hit after another AI executive departure at Google while telecom stocks were under pressure after SpaceX executives said the company will go after their market share.
S&P futures traded in a tight range overnight on either of unchanged. However, there was clear weakness within tech. Memory and software stocks were under pressure after earnings related weakness with multiple stocks down well >10%. Equities have drifted modestly lower throughout the session as oil prices and yields moved higher as some details of the Iran/Oman proposal start to get leaked in the press. The proposal blocks the travel of US/Israeli ships and includes a fee, which has been a red line for the administration. Within the context of the recent rally the equity pullback is modest with major indices down less than 1%. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is down 10pts to 7,714 (-0.1%), the Dow is down 415pts to 53,934 (-0.8%), while the Russell 2k is down 13pts to 3,007 (-0.4%).
This morning’s initial and continuing claims were about in line with expectations continuing to hover around 200k and 1.8ml, respectively. Q2 productivity came in well ahead of estimates while unit labor costs fell. There is some drama building in social media and the press related to the Fed. There was a lot of focus on a Tweet from Treasury Secretary Bessent who took a shot at the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos. The WSJ had a story talking about repeated phone calls between the President and Chair Warsh breaking with the practice of more formal arranged meetings. The article that is having the most market impact was in the FT. According to the story, people close to Chair Warsh “acknowledged that he had made some mistakes in his first 10 weeks” and said that he would be prepared to raise rates in September should inflation data come in hot (though to be fair this is not particularly controversial). It looks like there is a new Fed Whisperer. After the FT story Treasury yields moved up about 3bps across the curve and have extended to the upside along with oil.
- US 2yr +5bps to 4.25%, 5yr +6bps to 4.39%, 10yr +5bps to 4.67%, 30yr +4bps to 5.21%
- USD index: +$0.25 to $99.80
It was a mixed overnight session in global markets. South Korea sold off nearly 5% with weakness in the memory stocks following the aftermarket US earnings updates from Sandisk and Western Digital. Japan ended modestly lower with banks, autos and retail offsetting some of the tech weakness. Local yields moved lower after comments from Finance Minister Katayama that new debt issuance will not make up for tax revenue shortfalls. China announced that it is launching a probe into Palo Alto, the most recent escalation in the trade flare-up ahead of President Xi’s scheduled US visit in September. The Hang Seng fell 1.5% with weakness in tech stocks while mainland indices in China ended modestly higher. In Europe retail sales disappointed but Germany factory orders came in well ahead of expectations. It continues to be busy on the earnings front. WPP is a standout up >20% with the company highlighting turnaround efforts helping results. Deutsche Telekom is up ~5% after solid numbers while Siemens AG is selling off despite strong numbers. Most major indices closed modestly higher but keep in mind they were closed before the Iran details emerged.
Oil prices are near session highs up ~3%. US nat gas prices are modestly lower extending to the downside after a bigger than expected inventory build. However, prices in Europe are up sharply recouping most of this week’s losses. The metals complex is of the best levels but holding on to the bulk of yesterday’s rally despite the USD strength and move in rates. Ag is mixed. Crypto is hovering around unchanged with time pretty much running out before the Senate leaves for summer recess.
Within the S&P 500 9 of 11 sectors are trading lower but no sector is off >1%. Energy is recouping some of this week’s losses as the commodity moves higher. Info tech continues to outperform helped by strength in the mega-cap tech names and semis while there is earnings related weakness in software and memory. Communication services is the worst performing sector down 0.8%. Alphabet is under pressure again after looking to raise $25B in new debt - though early reports suggest there is strong demand. Fox and Versant Media (NBCUniversal’s networks/brand) are moving higher after earnings. Telecom stocks recoup yesterday’s SpaceX related weakness. As are the tower stocks within REITs but that is being offset by weakness in hotel, retail and healthcare REITs. Speaking of SPCX the stock is trading modestly higher despite the unlock of ~900ml shares today. Within industrials aerospace is under pressure after disappointing results from AXON and Honeywell Aerospace both down >10%. Parker Hannafin is a positive standout after results while Uber bounces back after yesterday’s weakness.
Looking ahead to tomorrow the BLS Employment report is the big catalyst with the street looking for 100k jobs to be added and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%
Earnings:
After-Market: ABX, AFL, ALTG, AHR, AIG, AMN, AMRZ, ARLO, ARNB, ARW, AORT, AGO, BARK, BLND, CABO, CTRE, CBL, CPK, CLPR, NET, CON, ED, CVSA, DV, DOCS, EFC, ESE, XZO, FIGS, G, GMED, GSBD, GRNT, GRND, GROV, GRDN, HASI, HG, HCI, KRMN, KWY, KGS, LION, MAIN, MTW, MBI, MSDL, MP, NGVC, NNI, NRDY, NOG, OSG, OFRM, ONTO, ONL, PBR, POST, RMAX, RGA, RSG, RMD, RLJ, RKT, RHP, SVV, SI, SARO, SG, TWLO, EGY, VHI, VTEX, WEAV, WHG, XPOF, YELP
Pre-Market: AD, AMR, ASIX, ATMU, CTEV, CYD, DCH, ESNT, FLR, GLP, GTN, KRP, MBGL, OKLO, PK, PPL, SLVM, SPB, TDS, UAA, UE, VST
Economic Data:
US:
• Challenger Job Cuts: 33.43k prior 44.85k
• Initial Claims: 199k vs. 202k cons., prior 197k
• Continuing Claims: 1.80ml vs. 1.79ml cons., prior 1.782ml
• Productivity Q/Q: 1.4% vs. 0.6% cons., prior 0.3%
• Unit Labor Costs: 1.3% vs. 2.1% cons., prior 1.8%
• 10:00 Wholesale Inventories: 0.2% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.3%
Global:
• Germany factory orders: 3.1% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.3%
• EU Retail Sales: -0.3%/0.7% m.m/y.y vs. 0.1%/1.0% cons., prior 0.4%/1.9%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/6/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday major US indices, ex-the Dow Jone Industrial Average, pulled back modestly after the very strong start in the month of August. It continued to be a very busy day of earnings which were broadly positive but tech stocks that reported were under pressure given the high expectations. Oil prices stabilized after a flare up in the Red Sea but that didn’t completely derail hopes for a deal to re-open the Strait. ISM services missed expectation with mixed underlying metrics; new orders increased, employment contracted and pricing pressure remained elevated. Treasury yields ended the day around unchanged levels. Probably the most notable price action yesterday happened in the metals complex which moved sharply higher amidst the recent USD weakness and easing rate hike expectations with the pullback in oil prices. Materials (commodity strength) and healthcare (LLY/AMGN/CRL earnings) were the only two sectors with meaningful gains. Energy and communication services were both down >2%. The latter got hit after another AI executive departure at Google while telecom stocks were under pressure after SpaceX executives said the company will go after their market share.
Futures are pointing to a mixed open. S&P futures have been trading in a tight range overnight on either of unchanged. Within tech, memory and software stocks are under pressure after earnings related weakness. The following are all down over 10% memory (SNDK/WDC) software (APP/DDOG/FIGS/HUBS). Google is back in the headlines again looking to raise up to $25B in a debt offering which could shift the focus back to credit markets again. Oil prices have stabilized while Treasury yields are modestly higher amidst some Fed related drama. SpaceX is trading slightly lower with the unlock of ~900ml shares today.
This morning’s initial and continuing claims were about in line with expectations continuing to hover around 200k and 1.8ml, respectively. Q2 productivity came in well ahead of estimates while unit labor costs fell. There is some drama building in social media and the press related to the Fed. There was a lot of focus on a Tweet from Treasury Secretary Bessent who took a shot at the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos. The WSJ had a story talking about repeated phone calls between the President and Chair Warsh and there was a FT story that people close to Warsh “acknowledged that he had made some mistakes in his first 10 weeks” and said that he would be prepared to raise rates in September should inflation data come in hot. So, it looks like there is a new Fed Whisperer. Since the FT story Treasury yields have moved up about 3bps across the curve.
It’s been a mixed overnight session in global markets. South Korea sold off nearly 5% with weakness in the memory stocks following the aftermarket US earnings updates. Japan ended modestly lower with banks, autos and retail offsetting some of the tech weakness. Local yields moved lower after comments from Finance Minister Katayama that new debt issuance will not make up for tax revenue shortfalls. China announced that it is launching a probe into Palo Alto (-1%) the most recent response escalation in the trade flare-up ahead of President Xi’s scheduled US visit in September. The Hang Seng fell 1.5% with weakness in tech stocks while mainland indices in China ended modestly higher. In Europe retail sales disappointed but Germany factory orders came in well ahead of expectations. It continues to be busy on the earnings front. WPP is a standout up >20% with the company highlighting turnaround efforts helping results. Deutsche Telekom is up ~5% after solid numbers while Siemens AG is selling off despite strong numbers. Most major indices are modestly higher back at all-time highs.
Oil prices are modestly higher as we continue to wait for an update out of the Middle East. Ahead of US inventory data US nat gas prices are modestly lower while prices in Europe recoup some of this week’s losses. The metals complex is mixed off of the best levels but holding on to the bulk of yesterday’s rally. Ag is a touch higher. Crypto is pulling back from overnight highs trading slightly lower.
Earnings:
After-Market: ACA, AGBK, AGL, AKA, ALB, ALL, APLE, ATEN, ATO, AWR, AXIA, BBDC, BGSF, BHR, BKH, BROS, CACI, CAPL, CDE, CDRE, CF, CMP, COOK, CPA, CPAY, CPS, CSV, CW, CWEN, CXT, CXW, DASH, DHT, DHX, DLX, EBS, EE, EHC, ELF, ETSY, EXPE, FG, FIG, FNF, GNK, GNL, GNW, GPMT, HBB, HCC, HHH, HLF, HMN, HP, HRTG, HUBS, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KMPR, KNTK, KRO, KVYO, LB, LEU, LTC, MATV, MCK, MET, MGY, MIAX, MLR, MSI, MTDR, MUR, MUSA, MWA, NC, NEXA, NL, NVST, O, OBDC, OEC, ONT, ORA, OTF, OUT, OXY, PAYC, PRI, PRSU, QGEN, RAMP, RCUS, RDN, RDW, RIG, RYN, SEG, SEI, SGU, SM, SMA, SMR, SNDK, SOLV, SRI, SST, STE, TNC, TPC, TPL, TPVG, TROX, TS, UGI, UHAL, UMH, USPH, UTI, UVV, VAL, VEL, WBI, WDC, WES, WTI, WTS, XPER, XRN, XYZ, ZIP, ZVIA
Pre-Market: ASPN, ATI, AVNT, BDX, BKSY, BKV, BOBS, BXSL, CARS, CEG, CHGG, CION, CNR, COLD, COP, DAN, DCO, DDOG, DNOW, ENOV, EPAM, ESAB, EVH, FOUR, FISV, FSK, FUN, FVR, GEL, GENI, GEO, GHM, GNE, GOLF, GSL, HAE, HWM, IBP, ITGR, ITT, KOP, KVUE, LCLN, LEG, LNG, LOAR, MAGN, MDU, MMI, MMS, NCDL, NREF, NUVB, ONIT, OPTU, OSCR, PH, PLNT, PR, QSR, RL, RXO, SDHC, SGI, SHO, SPH, SRE, SSTK, STWD, TAP, TDAY, TFX, TGLS, TIC, TRC, TRGP, TSQ, U, USFD, UWMC, VAC, VIA, VNT, WD, WMS, WRBY, ZTS
After-Market: ABX, AFL, ALTG, AHR, AIG, AMN, AMRZ, ARLO, ARNB, ARW, AORT, AGO, BARK, BLND, CABO, CTRE, CBL, CPK, CLPR, NET, CON, ED, CVSA, DV, DOCS, EFC, ESE, XZO, FIGS, G, GMED, GSBD, GRNT, GRND, GROV, GRDN, HASI, HG, HCI, KRMN, KWY, KGS, LION, MAIN, MTW, MBI, MSDL, MP, NGVC, NNI, NRDY, NOG, OSG, OFRM, ONTO, ONL, PBR, POST, RMAX, RGA, RSG, RMD, RLJ, RKT, RHP, SVV, SI, SARO, SG, TWLO, EGY, VHI, VTEX, WEAV, WHG, XPOF, YELP
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday major US indices, ex-the Dow Jone Industrial Average, pulled back modestly after the very strong start in the month of August. It continued to be a very busy day of earnings which were broadly positive but tech stocks that reported were under pressure given the high expectations. Oil prices stabilized after a flare up in the Red Sea but that didn’t completely derail hopes for a deal to re-open the Strait. ISM services missed expectation with mixed underlying metrics; new orders increased, employment contracted and pricing pressure remained elevated. Treasury yields ended the day around unchanged levels. Probably the most notable price action yesterday happened in the metals complex which moved sharply higher amidst the recent USD weakness and easing rate hike expectations with the pullback in oil prices. Materials (commodity strength) and healthcare (LLY/AMGN/CRL earnings) were the only two sectors with meaningful gains. Energy and communication services were both down >2%. The latter got hit after another AI executive departure at Google while telecom stocks were under pressure after SpaceX executives said the company will go after their market share.
Futures are pointing to a mixed open. S&P futures have been trading in a tight range overnight on either of unchanged. Within tech, memory and software stocks are under pressure after earnings related weakness. The following are all down over 10% memory (SNDK/WDC) software (APP/DDOG/FIGS/HUBS). Google is back in the headlines again looking to raise up to $25B in a debt offering which could shift the focus back to credit markets again. Oil prices have stabilized while Treasury yields are modestly higher amidst some Fed related drama. SpaceX is trading slightly lower with the unlock of ~900ml shares today.
This morning’s initial and continuing claims were about in line with expectations continuing to hover around 200k and 1.8ml, respectively. Q2 productivity came in well ahead of estimates while unit labor costs fell. There is some drama building in social media and the press related to the Fed. There was a lot of focus on a Tweet from Treasury Secretary Bessent who took a shot at the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos. The WSJ had a story talking about repeated phone calls between the President and Chair Warsh and there was a FT story that people close to Warsh “acknowledged that he had made some mistakes in his first 10 weeks” and said that he would be prepared to raise rates in September should inflation data come in hot. So, it looks like there is a new Fed Whisperer. Since the FT story Treasury yields have moved up about 3bps across the curve.
- US 2yr +3bps to 4.22%, 5yr +3bps to 4.36%, 10yr +2bps to 4.64%, 30yr +2bps to 5.19%
- USD index: +$0.13 to $99.68
It’s been a mixed overnight session in global markets. South Korea sold off nearly 5% with weakness in the memory stocks following the aftermarket US earnings updates. Japan ended modestly lower with banks, autos and retail offsetting some of the tech weakness. Local yields moved lower after comments from Finance Minister Katayama that new debt issuance will not make up for tax revenue shortfalls. China announced that it is launching a probe into Palo Alto (-1%) the most recent response escalation in the trade flare-up ahead of President Xi’s scheduled US visit in September. The Hang Seng fell 1.5% with weakness in tech stocks while mainland indices in China ended modestly higher. In Europe retail sales disappointed but Germany factory orders came in well ahead of expectations. It continues to be busy on the earnings front. WPP is a standout up >20% with the company highlighting turnaround efforts helping results. Deutsche Telekom is up ~5% after solid numbers while Siemens AG is selling off despite strong numbers. Most major indices are modestly higher back at all-time highs.
Oil prices are modestly higher as we continue to wait for an update out of the Middle East. Ahead of US inventory data US nat gas prices are modestly lower while prices in Europe recoup some of this week’s losses. The metals complex is mixed off of the best levels but holding on to the bulk of yesterday’s rally. Ag is a touch higher. Crypto is pulling back from overnight highs trading slightly lower.
Earnings:
After-Market: ACA, AGBK, AGL, AKA, ALB, ALL, APLE, ATEN, ATO, AWR, AXIA, BBDC, BGSF, BHR, BKH, BROS, CACI, CAPL, CDE, CDRE, CF, CMP, COOK, CPA, CPAY, CPS, CSV, CW, CWEN, CXT, CXW, DASH, DHT, DHX, DLX, EBS, EE, EHC, ELF, ETSY, EXPE, FG, FIG, FNF, GNK, GNL, GNW, GPMT, HBB, HCC, HHH, HLF, HMN, HP, HRTG, HUBS, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KMPR, KNTK, KRO, KVYO, LB, LEU, LTC, MATV, MCK, MET, MGY, MIAX, MLR, MSI, MTDR, MUR, MUSA, MWA, NC, NEXA, NL, NVST, O, OBDC, OEC, ONT, ORA, OTF, OUT, OXY, PAYC, PRI, PRSU, QGEN, RAMP, RCUS, RDN, RDW, RIG, RYN, SEG, SEI, SGU, SM, SMA, SMR, SNDK, SOLV, SRI, SST, STE, TNC, TPC, TPL, TPVG, TROX, TS, UGI, UHAL, UMH, USPH, UTI, UVV, VAL, VEL, WBI, WDC, WES, WTI, WTS, XPER, XRN, XYZ, ZIP, ZVIA
Pre-Market: ASPN, ATI, AVNT, BDX, BKSY, BKV, BOBS, BXSL, CARS, CEG, CHGG, CION, CNR, COLD, COP, DAN, DCO, DDOG, DNOW, ENOV, EPAM, ESAB, EVH, FOUR, FISV, FSK, FUN, FVR, GEL, GENI, GEO, GHM, GNE, GOLF, GSL, HAE, HWM, IBP, ITGR, ITT, KOP, KVUE, LCLN, LEG, LNG, LOAR, MAGN, MDU, MMI, MMS, NCDL, NREF, NUVB, ONIT, OPTU, OSCR, PH, PLNT, PR, QSR, RL, RXO, SDHC, SGI, SHO, SPH, SRE, SSTK, STWD, TAP, TDAY, TFX, TGLS, TIC, TRC, TRGP, TSQ, U, USFD, UWMC, VAC, VIA, VNT, WD, WMS, WRBY, ZTS
After-Market: ABX, AFL, ALTG, AHR, AIG, AMN, AMRZ, ARLO, ARNB, ARW, AORT, AGO, BARK, BLND, CABO, CTRE, CBL, CPK, CLPR, NET, CON, ED, CVSA, DV, DOCS, EFC, ESE, XZO, FIGS, G, GMED, GSBD, GRNT, GRND, GROV, GRDN, HASI, HG, HCI, KRMN, KWY, KGS, LION, MAIN, MTW, MBI, MSDL, MP, NGVC, NNI, NRDY, NOG, OSG, OFRM, ONTO, ONL, PBR, POST, RMAX, RGA, RSG, RMD, RLJ, RKT, RHP, SVV, SI, SARO, SG, TWLO, EGY, VHI, VTEX, WEAV, WHG, XPOF, YELP
Economic Data:
US:
- Challenger Job Cuts: 33.43k prior 44.85k
- Initial Claims: 199k vs. 202k cons., prior 197k
- Continuing Claims: 1.80ml vs. 1.79ml cons., prior 1.782ml
- Productivity Q/Q: 1.4% vs. 0.6% cons., prior 0.3%
- Unit Labor Costs: 1.3% vs. 2.1% cons., prior 1.8%
- 10:00 Wholesale Inventories: vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.3%
- 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
- Germany factory orders: 3.1% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.3%
- EU Retail Sales: -0.3%/0.7% m.m/y.y vs. 0.1%/1.0% cons., prior 0.4%/1.9%
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