NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
04/28/25 a/o 1:00 p.m.
DOW 39,969 (-145), S&P 500 5,481 (-44), Russell 2000 1,948 (-10), NYSE FANG+ 12,148 (-181), ICE Brent Crude $65.40/barrel (-$1.47), Gold $3,348/oz (+$50), Bitcoin ~93.8k (-905)
MAC Desk Commentary
It was a quiet start to the day on the heels of a very strong week for US markets. Most of the press over the weekend continued to focus on the potential negative impacts of tariffs and hopes of upcoming trade deals. Futures were modestly lower overnight but had turned slightly higher ahead of the open. Last week the S&P 500 ended up 4.6% trading recouping about half of the peak-to-trough losses with mega-cap tech stocks leading to the upside as the NYSE FANG+ index ended the week up 11%.
Nvidia started the day off to the downside amidst reports of rival Huawei chips and reports that the next version of DeepSeek’s model could be released this week. This ultimately bled into chip stocks and other AI beneficiaries. This was the first chink in the armor, but the weakness seemed to spread as the USD index turned lower. As we head to print the S&P 500 is down ~0.7% while the NYSE FANG+ index is off >1%, reasonably modest pullbacks in the context of last week’s rally.
This week is set to be a very busy week packed full of key earnings and economic data. It is the peak of the earnings season with over a third of the companies in the S&P 500 set to report including the remainder of the Mag 7 ex-NVDA. It will also be a very heavy week of economic data including Q1 GDP, PCE, ISM Manufacturing and labor market.
However, the only US economic data today was the Dallas manufacturing index which accelerated to the downside falling to -35.8 from -16.3 last month, hitting its lowest level since 2020. There were sharp declines in new orders and shipments. Employment held steady while prices continued to move higher. The USD index and Treasury yields were both modestly higher overnight but started moving lower just ahead of the open. The USD index is now near session lows down ~0.3% at ~$99 (HOD $99.62). There is some slight steepening of the yield curve with the 2yr down 3bps to 3.71% while the 10yr is around unchanged at 4.23%. Gold also caught a bid and is now up ~1.4% trading just under 3,350 after retesting Friday’s low ~3,275 overnight.
After the close on Friday the WSJ reported that the administration had laid out a framework for negotiations which are expected to begin with 18 major trade partners (6/week) on a rolling basis. There continues to be optimism that trade deals will be reached but it is becoming clear that they will take some time. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they could take months while South Korea said a deal will not be reached until after local elections in June. Speaking of elections Canada’s election is underway. President Trump took the opportunity to issue a long message on Truth Social about making it the 51st state again.
Within the S&P 500 breadth is about 2:1 decliners:advancers. The tech heavy sectors are leading to the downside with info tech down >1.5%. Energy is outperforming despite oil prices falling ~2% as nat gas bounces back. Yield oriented sectors are outperforming with utilities and REITs both around unchanged.
Things will start to get busier tomorrow. The impactful economic data includes the trade balance ahead of the open and JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence after the open. Earnings will also start to pickup as well (see below).
Earnings:
After-Market: AMKR, ARE, BRO, BRO, BRX, CCK, CDNS, CINF, CNO, CR, FFIV, HLIT, LEG, NE, NOV, NUE, NXPI, PCH, SBAC, TER, TWO, UCTT, UHS, WELL, WM, WWD
Pre-Market: ABG, AMT, AOS, ARCB, AWI, CVLT, CWK, DB, EAT, ECL, EPD, FELE, FOUR, GLW, GM, HLT, HON, INCY, JBLU, KHC, KO, LH, MO, PCAR, PFE, PII, PUMP, PYPL, RCL, REGN, SHW, SOFI, SPGI, SPOT, SYY, THC, UPS, XYL, ZBRA
After-Market: ACGL, APAM, BKNG, BXP, CSGP, CZR, EIX, EQH, EQR, ESS, EXLS, EXR, FICO, FLS, FSLR, HI, HIW, KRG, LFUS, LGIH, LRN, LSTR, MDLZ, OI, OKE, PPG, QRVO, REG, ROG, SBUX, SNAP, SON, STAG, STX, TTGT, UNM, V, WERN
Other Asset Classes:
- Modest pullback after recent rally
- AI complex lower
- Waiting on key economic data and earnings
- USD lower again
- 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors lower: Mega-cap tech lower, Yield oriented outperform
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
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MAC Desk Commentary
It was a quiet start to the day on the heels of a very strong week for US markets. Most of the press over the weekend continued to focus on the potential negative impacts of tariffs and hopes of upcoming trade deals. Futures were modestly lower overnight but had turned slightly higher ahead of the open. Last week the S&P 500 ended up 4.6% trading recouping about half of the peak-to-trough losses with mega-cap tech stocks leading to the upside as the NYSE FANG+ index ended the week up 11%.
Nvidia started the day off to the downside amidst reports of rival Huawei chips and reports that the next version of DeepSeek’s model could be released this week. This ultimately bled into chip stocks and other AI beneficiaries. This was the first chink in the armor, but the weakness seemed to spread as the USD index turned lower. As we head to print the S&P 500 is down ~0.7% while the NYSE FANG+ index is off >1%, reasonably modest pullbacks in the context of last week’s rally.
This week is set to be a very busy week packed full of key earnings and economic data. It is the peak of the earnings season with over a third of the companies in the S&P 500 set to report including the remainder of the Mag 7 ex-NVDA. It will also be a very heavy week of economic data including Q1 GDP, PCE, ISM Manufacturing and labor market.
However, the only US economic data today was the Dallas manufacturing index which accelerated to the downside falling to -35.8 from -16.3 last month, hitting its lowest level since 2020. There were sharp declines in new orders and shipments. Employment held steady while prices continued to move higher. The USD index and Treasury yields were both modestly higher overnight but started moving lower just ahead of the open. The USD index is now near session lows down ~0.3% at ~$99 (HOD $99.62). There is some slight steepening of the yield curve with the 2yr down 3bps to 3.71% while the 10yr is around unchanged at 4.23%. Gold also caught a bid and is now up ~1.4% trading just under 3,350 after retesting Friday’s low ~3,275 overnight.
After the close on Friday the WSJ reported that the administration had laid out a framework for negotiations which are expected to begin with 18 major trade partners (6/week) on a rolling basis. There continues to be optimism that trade deals will be reached but it is becoming clear that they will take some time. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they could take months while South Korea said a deal will not be reached until after local elections in June. Speaking of elections Canada’s election is underway. President Trump took the opportunity to issue a long message on Truth Social about making it the 51st state again.
Within the S&P 500 breadth is about 2:1 decliners:advancers. The tech heavy sectors are leading to the downside with info tech down >1.5%. Energy is outperforming despite oil prices falling ~2% as nat gas bounces back. Yield oriented sectors are outperforming with utilities and REITs both around unchanged.
Things will start to get busier tomorrow. The impactful economic data includes the trade balance ahead of the open and JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence after the open. Earnings will also start to pickup as well (see below).
Earnings:
After-Market: AMKR, ARE, BRO, BRO, BRX, CCK, CDNS, CINF, CNO, CR, FFIV, HLIT, LEG, NE, NOV, NUE, NXPI, PCH, SBAC, TER, TWO, UCTT, UHS, WELL, WM, WWD
Pre-Market: ABG, AMT, AOS, ARCB, AWI, CVLT, CWK, DB, EAT, ECL, EPD, FELE, FOUR, GLW, GM, HLT, HON, INCY, JBLU, KHC, KO, LH, MO, PCAR, PFE, PII, PUMP, PYPL, RCL, REGN, SHW, SOFI, SPGI, SPOT, SYY, THC, UPS, XYL, ZBRA
After-Market: ACGL, APAM, BKNG, BXP, CSGP, CZR, EIX, EQH, EQR, ESS, EXLS, EXR, FICO, FLS, FSLR, HI, HIW, KRG, LFUS, LGIH, LRN, LSTR, MDLZ, OI, OKE, PPG, QRVO, REG, ROG, SBUX, SNAP, SON, STAG, STX, TTGT, UNM, V, WERN
Other Asset Classes:
- US 2yr -4bps to 3.70%, 5yr -3bps to 3.83%, 10yr -1bps to 4.22%, 30yr -0bps to 4.70%
- USD index: -$0.30 to $98.96
- VIX: +1.32 to 26.16
- US:
- Dallas Manufacturing : -35.8 prior -16.3
- 3:00 Treasury Borrowing Estimate
- Global
- China Industrial Profits: 0.8% prior -0.3%
- India Industrial Production: 3% vs. 3.3% cons., prior 2.7%
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