STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 4/23/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 49,214 (-276), S&P 500 7,100 (-38), Russell 2000 2,745 (-41), NYSE FANG+ 7,896 (-146), ICE Brent Crude $105.14/barrel (+$3.23), Gold $4,725/oz (-$28), Bitcoin ~78.0k (-808)
- More headlines, more whipsawing
- Equities lower, oil higher
- Defensives, Energy, leading; Software getting hit
- Yields tame
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 526: Global X ETFs Pedro Palandrani on the Global X NYSE 100 ETF & NYSE 100 Index
- ETF Central: Capital Group Head of Product Holly Framsted
- NYSE Research Insights: NYSE Closing Auction Residual Imbalances
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday most major US indices continued to move higher despite oil breaking back above $100. The S&P 500 closed up 1%, just under Friday’s high, with tech stocks leading to the upside. The NYSE 100 was up nearly 2% on the session. It was a busy day of earnings which continued to be strong. Industrials and financials closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Transportation index fell over 8%. While airlines were weak, the primary cause was a CAR crash. The short squeeze that drove that stock from ~$150 to $750 in three weeks had the ABS brakes slam on it yesterday, ending down >35%. The stock is declining even more today.
The S&P 500 opened modestly lower after an optimistic, though questionably sourced, report on negotiations brought equities off their lows. The index traded sideways until 1pm, when reports that Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiating team sent the index lower. Then came reports that Tehran’s air defenses were activated, sending equities lower still, but we’re now bouncing on word Israel was not conducting any operations in the region, and that the air defenses were actually just small arms gunfire during regime parades. Nope, not joking. The S&P is off its lows, down about 0.5%.
Equities are seeing a defensive rotation as Iran headlines turned negative. Utilities and Staples are leading, with Energy also higher on oil’s strength. Industrials are also strong, with solid reactions to rail earnings in particular. Discretionary (retail and Travel/Leisure), Comm Services (media giving back some recent strength and META down) and Tech are the laggards. MSFT is down 4%, seeing the most pressure of the mega-caps. CNBC reported that for the first time in its history, the company is offering a voluntary retirement/buyout program. Software is getting smoked as the IGV falls 7%, with negative reactions to NOW and IBM earnings catalyzing the sharp decline. Not helping either was news that Thoma Bravo is turning over software firm Medalia to creditors. On the flip side there have been multiple semi/equipment companies that have put up strong earnings (TXN, LRCX, SK Hynix, STM) and the ICE Semis Index is trading higher.
Economic data today saw initial claims move up to 214k after falling sharply last week to 208k. Continuing claims were inline with estimates around 1.82ml .
After the open S&P Global flash PMIs were released. Manufacturing picked up, rising from 52.3 last month to 54.0 and beating estimates. Output rose at the best rate in the past four years, with Orders at the best level in two years. Supply chain disruption was apparent as Supplier delivery times saw the greatest lengthening since August 2022. The Services readings were more subdued, increasing slightly overall from 49.8 to 51.3. That was the second lowest reading over the past year. Not surprisingly, prices in both surveys rose again.
The S&P moved a bit higher on the data before pulling back. Treasury yields have been trading on either side of unchanged, now slightly higher. The USD index is also around unchanged, pulling back a bit after testing resistance at its 50d ma.
- US 2yr +1bps to 3.82%, 5yr +2bps to 3.95%, 10yr +1bps to 4.32%, 30yr +1bps to 4.91%
- USD index: +$0.14 to $98.55
Commodities are mixed. ICE Brent is back to overnight highs ~$106, after seeing ~$101 earlier on a report out of China that said there could be a breakthrough in Iran/US talks. US nat gas is down 5%, weakening into today’s EIA storage report, then continuing lower.
Gold is modestly lower, back to testing $4,700 after slipping below its 100d ma ~$4750. Other precious metals are also lower and copper is down as well. Mining giant FCX took down copper and gold production guidance this morning. Ag is mixed with wheat outperforming. The crypto complex is pulling back after yesterday’s rally. Bitcoin has fallen back under its 100d ~$78k. Ethereum is off ~5%.
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight though South Korea traded higher with memory stocks leading. SK Hynix results were very strong but the stock was basically unchanged. Samsung was up >3% despite >30k protestors gathering outside of the company demanding pay increases. The union is threatening an 18-day strike starting on May 21st if demands aren’t met. India was a laggard, with weakness from Infosys following earnings a drag. The Nikkei fell 0.7%. Japan’s Manufacturing PMI was ahead of estimates and increased from last month, while services fell, a dynamic that was also seen across Europe. Most indices in the region were slightly lower but finished near their best levels. France’s CAC 40 outperformed after L’Oreal and STMicroelectronics reported strong results. Germany’s Manufacturing PMI slipped slightly but the fall in Services was more pronounced, from 50.9 to 46.9.
Earnings:
- After-Market: ABCB, AMP, ASB, BKR, BYD, CHE, COLB, DLR, ERIE, GLPI, HIG, INTC, KN, KNSL, MXL, NEM, PFG, REXR, SAP, SLM, SSNC, VRSN
- Pre-Market (Friday): CHTR, FHB, GNTX, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 214k vs. 212k cons., prior 207k
- Continuing Claims: 1.821ml vs. 1.82ml cons., prior 1.82ml
- Chicago Fed Index: prior -0.11
- S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 vs 52.5 cons, prior 52.3
- Services: 51.3 vs 50.0 cons, prior 49.8
- Nat Gas Inventories: 103Bcf vs 94Bcf cons, prior 59Bcf
- KC Fed Manufacturing: 10 vs prior 11
Global:
- Japan Composite PMI (flash): 52.4 prior 53
- Manufacturing: 54.9 vs. 51.2 cons., prior 51.6
- Services: 51.2 prior 53.4
- India Composite PMI (flash): 58.3 prior 57
- Manufacturing: 55.9 prior 53.9
- Services: 57.9 prior 57.5
- EU Composite PMI (flash): 48.6 vs. 50.2 cons., prior 50.7
- Manufacturing: 52.2 vs. 50.8 cons., prior 51.6
- Services: 47.4 vs. 49.8 cons., prior 50.5
- UK Composite PMI (flash): 52 vs. 49.8 cons., prior 50.3
- Manufacturing: 53.6 vs. 49.9 cons., prior 51.0
- Services: 52 vs. 50 cons., prior 50.5
- Germany Composite PMI (flash): 48.3 vs 51.1 cons, prior 51.9
- Manufacturing: 51.2 vs 51.3 cons, prior 52.2
- Services: 46.9 vs 50.3 cons, prior 50.9
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 4/23/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday most major US indices continued to move higher despite oil breaking back above $100. The S&P 500 closed up 1%, just under Friday’s high, with tech stocks leading to the upside. The NYSE 100 was up nearly 2% on the session. It was a busy day of earnings which continued to be strong. Industrials and financials closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Transportation index fell over 8% with weakness in airlines. However, the primary driver of the recent move higher and yesterday’s decline was the short squeeze in Avis. Yesterday, the CAR crashed with the stock dropping by >400pts from its intraday high to end down >35%.
Futures have been trading lower overnight as the maritime tensions continue and seem to be picking up. It has also been a very busy 24 hours of earnings. The software vs. semis trade will be very much back in focus. Service Now and IBM are both trading off >5% after earnings, the former noted that several large deals in the Middle East had been delayed . With the recent focus on software and private credit there are also reports that Thoma Bravo is about to turn over Medallia, the firm it bought in 2021 for >$6B, to creditors - the total debt on the company currently stands ~$3B (this has been ongoing). On the flip side there have been multiple semi/equipment companies that have put up strong earnings (TXN, LRCX, SK Hynix, STM). Futures have come off the lows after a report from CCTV that there could be a breakthrough in Iran/US talks but have just turned lower again after President Trump ordered the Navy to shoot and kill any boats laying mines. S&P futures are currently down ~0.3% after trading down nearly 1% at the lows overnight. ICE Brent traded up to ~$106 overnight and down to ~$101.25 on the CCTV headlines but has now bounced back to ~102.75.
This morning’s initial claims moved up to 214k after falling sharply last week to 208k. Continuing claims was inline with estimates around 1.82ml . After the open S&P Global flash PMIs will be released. Treasury yields have been trading on either side of unchanged overnight. The USD index is pushing slightly back above its 200d ma ($98.35).
Government Yields
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight though South Korea traded higher with memory stocks leading. SK Hynix results were very strong. Samsung was up >3% despite >30k protestors gathering outside of the company demanding pay increases, the union is threatening an 18-day strike starting on May 21st if demands aren’t met. The Nikkei fell 0.7%. Manufacturing PMIs came in ahead of estimates while services missed, a dynamic that was also seen across Europe. Indices in the region were also lower overnight but have been clawing their way back to unchanged levels. France’s CAC 40 is outperforming after L’Oreal reported strong results including sales which were up 7.6% double street estimates.
Commodities are mixed. We discussed the oil volatility above. Metals were under pressure overnight but are bouncing back. Gold is around unchanged after testing 4,700 overnight. Silver is down ~1.5% at $76.75 (LOD 74.23). Copper is also off ~1%. Ag is mixed. The crypto complex is pulling back after yesterday’s rally. Bitcoin is ~78k falling back under its 100d after breaking above that level yesterday. Ethereum is off >2%.
There have been a ton of earnings in the last 24 hours. Tesla is off >2% despite solid results as CAPEX guidance increases. Within industrials URI and CSX are upside standouts after beat and raise quarters. Honeywell and Lockheed Martin are under pressure. American Express has turned lower despite a strong quarter and guidance that was about inline with estimates.
Earnings:
After-Market: AZZ, BANC, BANR, CACI, CCI, CHDN, CSX, FAF, FR, FULT, GGG, GL, GTY, HLX, HXL, IBM, KALU, KMI, KNX, LBRT, LRCX, LUV, LVS, MEDP, MOH, NOW, OII, PKG, RJF, ROL, RS, TSLA, TXN, URI, WEX
Pre-Market (Thurs): AAL, AXP, BFH, BX, CBRE, CMCSA, CNP, DOV, DOW, FCX, HBAN, HON, IRDM, KDP, LMT, NDAQ, NEE, PCG, PENN, PHM, POOL, R, ROP, SNA, THRM, TMO, UNP, VC, VLY, WST
After-Market (Thurs): ABCB, AMP, ASB, BKR, BYD, CHE, COLB, DLR, ERIE, GLPI, HIG, INTC, KN, KNSL, MXL, NEM, PFG, REXR, SAP, SLM, SSNC, VRSN
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday most major US indices continued to move higher despite oil breaking back above $100. The S&P 500 closed up 1%, just under Friday’s high, with tech stocks leading to the upside. The NYSE 100 was up nearly 2% on the session. It was a busy day of earnings which continued to be strong. Industrials and financials closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Transportation index fell over 8% with weakness in airlines. However, the primary driver of the recent move higher and yesterday’s decline was the short squeeze in Avis. Yesterday, the CAR crashed with the stock dropping by >400pts from its intraday high to end down >35%.
Futures have been trading lower overnight as the maritime tensions continue and seem to be picking up. It has also been a very busy 24 hours of earnings. The software vs. semis trade will be very much back in focus. Service Now and IBM are both trading off >5% after earnings, the former noted that several large deals in the Middle East had been delayed . With the recent focus on software and private credit there are also reports that Thoma Bravo is about to turn over Medallia, the firm it bought in 2021 for >$6B, to creditors - the total debt on the company currently stands ~$3B (this has been ongoing). On the flip side there have been multiple semi/equipment companies that have put up strong earnings (TXN, LRCX, SK Hynix, STM). Futures have come off the lows after a report from CCTV that there could be a breakthrough in Iran/US talks but have just turned lower again after President Trump ordered the Navy to shoot and kill any boats laying mines. S&P futures are currently down ~0.3% after trading down nearly 1% at the lows overnight. ICE Brent traded up to ~$106 overnight and down to ~$101.25 on the CCTV headlines but has now bounced back to ~102.75.
This morning’s initial claims moved up to 214k after falling sharply last week to 208k. Continuing claims was inline with estimates around 1.82ml . After the open S&P Global flash PMIs will be released. Treasury yields have been trading on either side of unchanged overnight. The USD index is pushing slightly back above its 200d ma ($98.35).
Government Yields
- US 2yr -1bps to 3.80%, 5yr -1bps to 3.92%, 10yr -1bps to 4.30%, 30yr -0bps to 4.90%
- USD index: +$0.16 to $98.58
Markets in Asia were mostly lower overnight though South Korea traded higher with memory stocks leading. SK Hynix results were very strong. Samsung was up >3% despite >30k protestors gathering outside of the company demanding pay increases, the union is threatening an 18-day strike starting on May 21st if demands aren’t met. The Nikkei fell 0.7%. Manufacturing PMIs came in ahead of estimates while services missed, a dynamic that was also seen across Europe. Indices in the region were also lower overnight but have been clawing their way back to unchanged levels. France’s CAC 40 is outperforming after L’Oreal reported strong results including sales which were up 7.6% double street estimates.
Commodities are mixed. We discussed the oil volatility above. Metals were under pressure overnight but are bouncing back. Gold is around unchanged after testing 4,700 overnight. Silver is down ~1.5% at $76.75 (LOD 74.23). Copper is also off ~1%. Ag is mixed. The crypto complex is pulling back after yesterday’s rally. Bitcoin is ~78k falling back under its 100d after breaking above that level yesterday. Ethereum is off >2%.
There have been a ton of earnings in the last 24 hours. Tesla is off >2% despite solid results as CAPEX guidance increases. Within industrials URI and CSX are upside standouts after beat and raise quarters. Honeywell and Lockheed Martin are under pressure. American Express has turned lower despite a strong quarter and guidance that was about inline with estimates.
Earnings:
After-Market: AZZ, BANC, BANR, CACI, CCI, CHDN, CSX, FAF, FR, FULT, GGG, GL, GTY, HLX, HXL, IBM, KALU, KMI, KNX, LBRT, LRCX, LUV, LVS, MEDP, MOH, NOW, OII, PKG, RJF, ROL, RS, TSLA, TXN, URI, WEX
Pre-Market (Thurs): AAL, AXP, BFH, BX, CBRE, CMCSA, CNP, DOV, DOW, FCX, HBAN, HON, IRDM, KDP, LMT, NDAQ, NEE, PCG, PENN, PHM, POOL, R, ROP, SNA, THRM, TMO, UNP, VC, VLY, WST
After-Market (Thurs): ABCB, AMP, ASB, BKR, BYD, CHE, COLB, DLR, ERIE, GLPI, HIG, INTC, KN, KNSL, MXL, NEM, PFG, REXR, SAP, SLM, SSNC, VRSN
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 214k vs. 212k cons., prior 207k
- Continuing Claims: 1.821ml vs. 1.82ml cons., prior 1.82ml
- Chicago Fed Index: prior -0.11
- 9:45 S&P Global Flash PMI
- 10:30 Nat Gas Inventories
- 11:00 KC Manufacturing
- 1:00 5yr TIPS auction
- Japan Composite PMI (flash): 52.4 prior 53
- Manufacturing: 54.9 vs. 51.2 cons., prior 51.6
- Services: 51.2 prior 53.4
- India Composite PMI (flash): 58.3 prior 57
- Manufacturing: 55.9 prior 53.9
- Services: 57.9 prior 57.5
- EU Composite PMI (flash): 48.6 vs. 50.2 cons., prior 50.7
- Manufacturing: 52.2 vs. 50.8 cons., prior 51.6
- Services: 47.4 vs. 49.8 cons., prior 50.5
- UK Composite PMI (flash): 52 vs. 49.8 cons., prior 50.3
- Manufacturing: 53.6 vs. 49.9 cons., prior 51.0
- Services: 52 vs. 50 cons., prior 50.5
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