STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
August 21, 2026 a/o 9:15am EST
Good morning and Happy Friday,
US equities saw broad declines yesterday with only two sectors- Energy and Real Estate- ending in the green. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, finishing at the lows. The equal-weight was about inline and the Russell 2000 lagged, falling over 1%. Consumer and Staples and Discretionary were the lagging sectors, with WMT’s sharp earnings-selloff a big driver of the weakness, along with Healthcare which gave back some of Wednesday’s MRK-MRNA induced rally. Treasuries gave up a lot of the gains from Thursday as yields rose ~5bp at the long end. Commodities continued to rally with Brent higher and Bitcoin up sharply. President Trump said an economic “D-Day” was coming for Iran, which will be detailed on Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessent previewed that and lot more on a wide-ranging TV appearance after the open. Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement was a major topic of discussion of course and he noted that the program could be expanded further. He also said that yields and oil are dislocated from fair value and that he has “asymmetric information”. His comments seem to put him at odds with Fed Chair Warsh, who has basically said the bond market is doing a lot of the Fed’s work, while also hinting at a tighter relationship between the Fed and Treasury, adding to the Fed independence debate.
US equity futures are trading higher this morning, trying to bounce from yesterday’s (and this week’s) decline. Oil was lower, helping yields pull back a little but it’s now flat to up a bit. Today is monthly options expiration, likely influencing prices today. Flash PMIs will be out after the open as the major econ data.
After a tough week of retail earnings BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), Buckle (BKE) and Ross Stores (ROST) all beat estimates and are trading higher in the pre-market. The latter is the most notable after disappointing guidance from TJX earlier in the week. Optoelectronics company OSI Systems (OSIS) is trading sharply lower after missing on both the top and bottom lines calling out disruptions in the Middle East for a delay in some revenue recognition. After yesterday’s close Bloomberg reported that Broadcom was looking to backstop as much as $100B in financing to fund AI chip purchases for Anthropic and other AI companies. It’s the latest in a line of mega-funding partnership announcements, which are driving increasing concern about the levels of debt funding the AI trade, supply of paper hitting the market and circularity among suppliers/customers. Virtu is reportedly looking into selling its brokerage/agency business for $3-$4b, which would allow it to focus onto its market-making business.
Yields have pulled back only slightly but its better than breaking out to the upside.
European indicies are trading at their best levels today and are up 20-40bps. Most groups are higher as the region tries to claw back some of this week’s 1-2% declines. Miners, industrials and autos are among the best performers. August flash PMIs were better than expected overall. In Asia, The Nikkei fell 0.3%, putting weekly loss at 4% as major tech names sold off, though there was weakness across sectors. PMIs rose from last month and inflation was inline with expectations. China was higher with Hang Seng’s 1.2% gain leading. Alibaba was down 3% in local trading following its earnings. Samsung announced a plan to return as much as $80B to shareholders this year, following SK Hynix’s own announcement the other day. That would be 5x the previous high for returns, in 2020.
Crude is around flat, hovering around 1m highs at $94. Crypto continues to see sharp upside momentum (BTC +25% this week) following a strong push from Trump for the industry as well as big forced short covering squeezing higher. Precious metals also continue to climb with Sept Gold futures taking out $4500. Ag is slightly lower but has also rallied strongly with the broader commodity complex.
Economic Data:
US:
US equities saw broad declines yesterday with only two sectors- Energy and Real Estate- ending in the green. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, finishing at the lows. The equal-weight was about inline and the Russell 2000 lagged, falling over 1%. Consumer and Staples and Discretionary were the lagging sectors, with WMT’s sharp earnings-selloff a big driver of the weakness, along with Healthcare which gave back some of Wednesday’s MRK-MRNA induced rally. Treasuries gave up a lot of the gains from Thursday as yields rose ~5bp at the long end. Commodities continued to rally with Brent higher and Bitcoin up sharply. President Trump said an economic “D-Day” was coming for Iran, which will be detailed on Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessent previewed that and lot more on a wide-ranging TV appearance after the open. Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement was a major topic of discussion of course and he noted that the program could be expanded further. He also said that yields and oil are dislocated from fair value and that he has “asymmetric information”. His comments seem to put him at odds with Fed Chair Warsh, who has basically said the bond market is doing a lot of the Fed’s work, while also hinting at a tighter relationship between the Fed and Treasury, adding to the Fed independence debate.
US equity futures are trading higher this morning, trying to bounce from yesterday’s (and this week’s) decline. Oil was lower, helping yields pull back a little but it’s now flat to up a bit. Today is monthly options expiration, likely influencing prices today. Flash PMIs will be out after the open as the major econ data.
After a tough week of retail earnings BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), Buckle (BKE) and Ross Stores (ROST) all beat estimates and are trading higher in the pre-market. The latter is the most notable after disappointing guidance from TJX earlier in the week. Optoelectronics company OSI Systems (OSIS) is trading sharply lower after missing on both the top and bottom lines calling out disruptions in the Middle East for a delay in some revenue recognition. After yesterday’s close Bloomberg reported that Broadcom was looking to backstop as much as $100B in financing to fund AI chip purchases for Anthropic and other AI companies. It’s the latest in a line of mega-funding partnership announcements, which are driving increasing concern about the levels of debt funding the AI trade, supply of paper hitting the market and circularity among suppliers/customers. Virtu is reportedly looking into selling its brokerage/agency business for $3-$4b, which would allow it to focus onto its market-making business.
Yields have pulled back only slightly but its better than breaking out to the upside.
- US 2yr -0bps to 4.19%, 5yr -1bps to 4.38%, 10yr -1bps to 4.70%, 30yr -1bps to 5.25%
- USD index: -$0.17 to $98.65
European indicies are trading at their best levels today and are up 20-40bps. Most groups are higher as the region tries to claw back some of this week’s 1-2% declines. Miners, industrials and autos are among the best performers. August flash PMIs were better than expected overall. In Asia, The Nikkei fell 0.3%, putting weekly loss at 4% as major tech names sold off, though there was weakness across sectors. PMIs rose from last month and inflation was inline with expectations. China was higher with Hang Seng’s 1.2% gain leading. Alibaba was down 3% in local trading following its earnings. Samsung announced a plan to return as much as $80B to shareholders this year, following SK Hynix’s own announcement the other day. That would be 5x the previous high for returns, in 2020.
Crude is around flat, hovering around 1m highs at $94. Crypto continues to see sharp upside momentum (BTC +25% this week) following a strong push from Trump for the industry as well as big forced short covering squeezing higher. Precious metals also continue to climb with Sept Gold futures taking out $4500. Ag is slightly lower but has also rallied strongly with the broader commodity complex.
Economic Data:
US:
- 9:45am Flash PMIs
- 1:00pm Rig count
- Manufacturing / Services Flash PMIs:
- Japan: 55.1 / 52.3 vs prior 54.5 / 51.2
- Australia: 52.0 / 52.9 vs prior 52.0 / 53.6
- India: 52.9 / 54.5 vs 54.0 / 53.8 cons, prior 53.5 / 53.3
- UK: 51.5 / 52.8 vs 51.5 / 51.8 cons, prior 51.9 / 52.1
- Germany: 54.1 / 48.5 vs 52.0 / 50.1 cons, prior 52.2 / 49.8
- France: 51.5 / 48.4 vs 50.0 / 49.8 cons, prior 49.8 / 49.6
- EU: 52.8 / 51.7 vs 51.8 / 51.5 cons, prior 51.9 / 51.7
- UK July Retail Sales m.m: -0.5% vs -0.5% cons, prior 0.7%
- China FDI (YTD, y.y): -6.2% vs prior -5.0%
- Japan inflation ex-food and energy: 1.9% vs prior 1.7%
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