STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/1/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 52,761 (-424), S&P 500 7,632 (-54), Russell 2000 2,924 (-33), NYSE FANG+ 18,607 (-132), ICE Brent Crude $94.56/barrel (+$4.07), Gold $4,391/oz (-$90), Bitcoin ~77.2k (-1754)
- Making sure September retains its Worst Month title
- Iran hostilities continue
- Yields, oil higher
- More tech earnings tonight
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Inside the ICE House Biotech Series: Inceptive CEO Jakob Uszkoreit on Designing Medicines That Work Like Life Itself
- ETF Central: ETF Central: Horizon Head of Product Clark Allen
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improve
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday US equities ended August on a down note. The US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend and oil and long-end yields rose. The S&P fell 0.3%, the equal-weight dropped 0.6% and Russell 2000 0.5%. Energy was the outperformer. Tech was modestly higher as software continued to see upside momentum and memory traded higher while the megacaps fell. Defensives performed relatively well, though Utilities got hit on unfavorable California wildfire legislation as well as the backup in yields. A late day rally off the lows on end-of-month flows and MSCI rebalancing pushed equities to end the day near their highs, though still in the red. For August, the S&P rose 2.6%, the equal-weight 1.9% and the Russell 2000 0.9%. Energy, Tech, Materials and Healthcare sectors rose 5-6% to lead the gainers while Utilities was the big underperformer (-5%). Industrials, Real Estate and Comm Services followed lower.
The flareup in Iran over the weekend continued last night after Iran struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. S&P futures were trading around flat before the news broke but moved to their lows. We’re starting out the historically worst month for stocks right on cue. The S&P 500 opened down 0.7% and we've been drifting in the red like a Chevelle song, though in a relatively tight intraday range. Support has held at the low-end of the range we've been in since the beginning of August (~7630), and we are testing it again as we hit print.
Breadth isn't terrible sector-wise, with 5/11 higher. Energy is leading on oil's gains, while the defensively-oriented Staples and Healthcare sectors are also higher. MDT is up ~2% on earnings but the rest of Med Tech is lower. Biopharma is up - Novartis +5% on trial data- as are Services/managed care but Tools is lower, as the internal complexion for Healthcare leans defensive.
Discretionary is lagging, with Travel & Leisure, retailers and Homebuilders lower (soft residential Construction Spending data and yields/macro). Amazon and Tesla are also down 2-3%. Industrials is another laggard. Tech is lower with broad weakness in both semis and software (cyber in particular), but Apple's 3% gain is helping mitigate some of the downside. We had more AI spending news as Anthropic signed a $35B deal for compute capacity with cloud provider Lambda, which is backed by NVDA (-1%), which holds the lease on the data center, which is being built by Hut 8 (-0.6%), a bitcoin miner-turned AI data center provider. Meanwhile, Fervo (+4%) has signed a deal to provide 400MW of geothermal power to a still-in planning stage Alphabet data center in Utah. We'll get some important tech earnings tonight, including DELL.
Treasury yields are higher across the curve while the US Dollar Index reversed all of yesterday's drop. The 10y is sitting just below YTD highs.
- US 2yr +4bps to 4.39%, 5yr +5bps to 4.55%, 10yr +4bps to 4.79%, 30yr +2bps to 5.27%
- USD index: +$0.27 to $99.66
The key economic data releases today came out after the open and helped push equities off their lows while yields ticked down slightly. Overall, the data showed a still-resilient economy and labor market, though with signs of moderation. Final S&P Manufacturing PMI was revised up from the flash reading, to 53.9 vs 53.2 initially. ISM Manufacturing was 54.6, a little below consensus and lower than last month (55.6).
While the index and its major components remained above the expansion level (>50) the growth moderated across the board. New Orders, Employment and Backlog all declined versus last month. Costs continued to rise strongly in the report but the rate was unchanged from last month.
The commentary focused on rising prices and component shortages.
- "The economy is annoying; It is getting in the way of otherwise good business...we are...struggling to compete when prices escalate due to things like tariffs and the conflict in the Strait..." - Chem. products
- “Supply chain situation, especially in the electronics market, is going through another crisis even bigger and more complicated than during and post COVID-19." “Supply markets are increasingly challenging due to inflation and supply availability. (two different Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Prices continue to rise on all goods. Suppliers are noting that energy, steel and labor costs are increasing very quickly." (Machinery)
JOLTS Job Openings for July came in just below estimates. Openings rose modestly from June, but June's number was revised down by 177K. Manufacturing (+79K) had the largest increase in openings while Professional & Business Services has the biggest decline (-65K). Hirings fell 278K, also led by a decline of 188K in Professional & Business Services. Construction (47K) saw the biggest increase. Layoffs and Discharges fell from last month and remain on-trend.
Construction Spending missed estimates, falling 0.5% in July versus June and 3.8% y.y. Residential led the decline, falling 1.3% / 7.3%, respectively. Office construction rose 2.9% / 16.9%, driven by data centers, which increased 6% / 57%.
Tomorrow we'll get ADP monthly employment data and the Beige Book page-turner, along with Factory Orders.
Crude is up another 4% today, initially higher on the overnight tanker news, and then took another leg up after the US struck Iranian targets in the Strait, while the US embassy in Israel warned America citizens in the region of a possible escalation. President Trump met with oil and gas retailers and refiners today at 1:30pm today at the White House. Let the mid-term elections push begin! European gas is up another 3% after jumping 4% yesterday. Precious metals are lower, with gold trying to hold the 100d ma and $4400 level after hitting resistance at $4700 last week. Silver is reacting similarly after it hit $70. Copper is trading lower as well. Bitcoin and ETH are down 2% as both continue to digest the late August rally. Ag is higher with escalating tensions between Europe, NATO and Russia after Germany officially accused Russia of targeting the Leipzig airport with drones last month. .
Major European indices ended lower, with Germany leading to the downside again as retail sales missed by a wide margin and Russian tensions ramping. Global bond yields continue to back up. European headline CPI was inline with estimates while core was a tick better. There was broad weakness across sectors. Energy outperformed on commodity strength and Healthcare was also a leader. Travel & Leisure, luxury, Industrials, Tech and Autos were among the worst groups.
Asia was mostly lower overnight. In Japan the Nikkei fell 0.2%. JGB yields continue to be a focus as the 10y approaches 3% for the first time since I graduated high school. (“What is 1996 Alex?”). Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan Finance Minister Katayama met at the G20. Bloomberg reported that Bessent told his counterparts that their next step should be a rate hike. Katayama for her part later downplayed the discussion and said they did not have monetary policy discussions. In China Shanghai fell 0.2% while Hang Seng dropped 0.9%. Privately-held tech giant Hauwei reported a 37% drop in profits for 1H26 while revenue rose 10% as R&D and input costs rose sharply. RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was better than expected and rose modestly from last month. South Korea’s KOSPI bucked the regional weakness, gaining 0.2%. Exports surged 69% y.y in August.
Earnings:
- After-Market: CRDO, DELL, GTLB, MDB, PANW, SPWH
- Pre-Market (Wed): BF.B, CXM, FCEL, GIII, OLLI
- After-Market (Wed): AGX, AVGO, AI, CHPT, FIVE, GOLD, HPE, NTAP, NTSK, PHR, PVH, SNOW, TLYS, WOOF
Economic Data:
US:
- LMI Logistics Managers Survey: 66.6 vs prior 68.9
- Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 vs 53.2 flash
- ISM Manufacturing: 54.6 vs 55.2 cons, prior 55.6
- JOLTS job openings: 7.271M vs 7.3M cons, prior 7.182M
- Construction spending m.m: -0.5% vs 0.0% cons, prior 0.0%
- Dallas Fed Services: 4.2 vs prior 6.6
- 4:30pm API crude inventories
Global:
- Korea Trade Balance: $34.75B vs $30.7B cons, prior $30.32B
- Exports y.y: 68.7% vs 62.6% cons, prior 63.0%
- Imports: 22.5% vs 24.7% cons, prior 26.5%
- Korea Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 vs prior 53.1
- Japan consumer confidence: 35.5 vs 35 cons, prior 34.9
- Taiwan Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 vs prior 55.1
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 vs 51.0 cons, prior 50.9
- Germany Retail Sale m.m: -3.4% vs 0.4% cons, prior 0.0%
- Europe final PMI; 52.7 vs 52.8 flash
- Europe CPI y.y: 3.3% vs 3.3% cons, prior 2.9%
- Core y.y: 2.4% vs 2.5% cons, prior 2.5%
- Europe Unemployment: 6.4% vs 6.3% cons, prior 6.3%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/1/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning and Happy September,
Yesterday US equities ended August on down note. The US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, oil and long-end yields rose. The S&P fell 0.3%, the equal-weight dropped 0.6% and Russell 2000 0.5%. Energy was the outperformer and Tech was modestly higher as software continues to see upside momentum and memory traded higher while the megacaps fell. Defensives performed relatively well, though Utilities got hit on unfavorable California wildfire legislation as well as the backup in yields. A late day rally off the lows on end-of-month flows and MSCI rebalancing pushed equities to end the day near their highs, though still in the red. For August, the S&P rose 2.6%, the equal-weight 1.9% and the Russell 2000 0.9%. Energy, Tech, Materials and Healthcare sectors rose 5-6% to lead the gainers while Utilities was the big underperformer (-5%). Industrials, Real Estate and Comm Services followed lower.
The flareup in Iran over the weekend continued last night after Iran struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. S&P futures were trading around flat before the news broke but moved to their lows, where we are currently, down 0.6%. We’re starting out the historically worst month for stocks right on cue. Miners and AI/chip names are among the biggest decliners in the pre-market. Oil and treasury yields rose modestly higher on the tanker news. More AI spending for you as Anthropic signed a $35B deal for compute capacity with cloud provider Lambda, which is backed by NVDA, which holds the lease on the data center, which is being built by Hut 8 (+1.5%), a bitcoin miner-turned AI data center provider. Meanwhile, Fervo (+9%) has signed a deal to provide 400MW of geothermal power to a still-in planning stage Alphabet data center in Utah. In non AI news, MDT is trading up ~3% in the pre-market on earnings.
Treasury yields are up 2-3bp across the curve but modestly off their highs while the US Dollar Index is reversing much of yesterday's drop. Economic data today comes out after the open, including ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS.
Major European indices are trading lower, with Germany leading to the downside again as retail sales missed by a wide margin. Global bond yields continue to back up. European headline CPI was inline with estimates while core was a tick better. There’s broad weakness across sectors. Energy is outperforming on the commodity’s strength and Healthcare (Novartis +5% on trial data) and Chemicals are also higher (Air Liquide up 3% on Elliot stake). Autos are among the worst groups (Volkswagen, BMW -2%). Asia was mostly lower overnight. In Japan the Nikkei fell 0.2%. JGB yields continue to be a focus as the 10y approaches 3% for the first time since I graduated high school. (“What is 1996 Alex?”). Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan Finance Minister Katayama met at the G20. Bloomberg reported that Bessent told his counterparts that their next step should be a rate hike. Katayama for her part later downplayed the discussion and said they did not have monetary policy discussions. In China Shanghai fell 0.2% while Hang Seng dropped 0.9%. Privately-held tech giant Hauwei reported a 37% drop in profits for 1H26 while revenue rose 10% as R&D and input costs rose sharply. RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was better than expected and rose modestly from last month. South Korea’s KOSPI bucked the regional weakness, gaining 0.2%. Exports surged 69% y.y in August.
Earnings
After-Market: PXS
Pre-Market: MDT, MMED, NIO, YEXT
After-Market: CRDO, DELL, GTLB, MDB, PANW, SPWH
Economic Data:
US:
Global:
Yesterday US equities ended August on down note. The US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, oil and long-end yields rose. The S&P fell 0.3%, the equal-weight dropped 0.6% and Russell 2000 0.5%. Energy was the outperformer and Tech was modestly higher as software continues to see upside momentum and memory traded higher while the megacaps fell. Defensives performed relatively well, though Utilities got hit on unfavorable California wildfire legislation as well as the backup in yields. A late day rally off the lows on end-of-month flows and MSCI rebalancing pushed equities to end the day near their highs, though still in the red. For August, the S&P rose 2.6%, the equal-weight 1.9% and the Russell 2000 0.9%. Energy, Tech, Materials and Healthcare sectors rose 5-6% to lead the gainers while Utilities was the big underperformer (-5%). Industrials, Real Estate and Comm Services followed lower.
The flareup in Iran over the weekend continued last night after Iran struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. S&P futures were trading around flat before the news broke but moved to their lows, where we are currently, down 0.6%. We’re starting out the historically worst month for stocks right on cue. Miners and AI/chip names are among the biggest decliners in the pre-market. Oil and treasury yields rose modestly higher on the tanker news. More AI spending for you as Anthropic signed a $35B deal for compute capacity with cloud provider Lambda, which is backed by NVDA, which holds the lease on the data center, which is being built by Hut 8 (+1.5%), a bitcoin miner-turned AI data center provider. Meanwhile, Fervo (+9%) has signed a deal to provide 400MW of geothermal power to a still-in planning stage Alphabet data center in Utah. In non AI news, MDT is trading up ~3% in the pre-market on earnings.
Treasury yields are up 2-3bp across the curve but modestly off their highs while the US Dollar Index is reversing much of yesterday's drop. Economic data today comes out after the open, including ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.36%, 5yr +3bps to 4.53%, 10yr +3bps to 4.78%, 30yr +3bps to 5.27%
- USD index: +$0.17 to $99.56
Major European indices are trading lower, with Germany leading to the downside again as retail sales missed by a wide margin. Global bond yields continue to back up. European headline CPI was inline with estimates while core was a tick better. There’s broad weakness across sectors. Energy is outperforming on the commodity’s strength and Healthcare (Novartis +5% on trial data) and Chemicals are also higher (Air Liquide up 3% on Elliot stake). Autos are among the worst groups (Volkswagen, BMW -2%). Asia was mostly lower overnight. In Japan the Nikkei fell 0.2%. JGB yields continue to be a focus as the 10y approaches 3% for the first time since I graduated high school. (“What is 1996 Alex?”). Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan Finance Minister Katayama met at the G20. Bloomberg reported that Bessent told his counterparts that their next step should be a rate hike. Katayama for her part later downplayed the discussion and said they did not have monetary policy discussions. In China Shanghai fell 0.2% while Hang Seng dropped 0.9%. Privately-held tech giant Hauwei reported a 37% drop in profits for 1H26 while revenue rose 10% as R&D and input costs rose sharply. RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was better than expected and rose modestly from last month. South Korea’s KOSPI bucked the regional weakness, gaining 0.2%. Exports surged 69% y.y in August.
Earnings
After-Market: PXS
Pre-Market: MDT, MMED, NIO, YEXT
After-Market: CRDO, DELL, GTLB, MDB, PANW, SPWH
Economic Data:
US:
- LMI Logistics Managers Survey: 66.6 vs prior 68.9
- 9:45am Final Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00am ISM Manufacturing
- 10:00am JOLTS job openings
- 10:00am Construction spending
- 10:30am Dallas Fed Services
- 4:30pm API crude inventories
Global:
- Korea Trade Balance: $34.75B vs $30.7B cons, prior $30.32B
- Exports y.y: 68.7% vs 62.6% cons, prior 63.0%
- Imports: 22.5% vs 24.7% cons, prior 26.5%
- Korea Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 vs prior 53.1
- Japan consumer confidence: 35.5 vs 35 cons, prior 34.9
- Taiwan Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 vs prior 55.1
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 vs 51.0 cons, prior 50.9
- Germany Retail Sale m.m: -3.4% vs 0.4% cons, prior 0.0%
- Europe final PMI; 52.7 vs 52.8 flash
- Europe CPI y.y: 3.3% vs 3.3% cons, prior 2.9%
- Core y.y: 2.4% vs 2.5% cons, prior 2.5%
- Europe Unemployment: 6.4% vs 6.3% cons, prior 6.3%
By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates. Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.
Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.
© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates. For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.