STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 6/11/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 50,663 (+744), S&P 500 7,353 (+86), Russell 2000 2,904 (+68), NYSE FANG+ 16,785 (+191), ICE Brent Crude $90.37/barrel (-$2.73), Gold $4,165/oz (+$32), Bitcoin ~63.4k (+2117)
- Riding the rollercoaster of emotions and headlines
- Markets rally after strikes called off
- Yields lower despite rising inflation
- Oil testing recent lows
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 538: Link Logistics CEO Luke Petherbridge on Supply Chains, Speed and Last-Mile Demand
- ETF Central: Milliman Principal & Managing Director Adam Schenck
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: June 2026 - Home Equity Withdrawals Reach Highest First-Quarter Level Since 2021
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Drawing a market parallel, last night’s historic comeback by the Knicks was on par with the 10% intraday reversal on April 9th of last year amidst the tariff turmoil. What looked like a potential early bedtime turned into a sleepless night of elation for much of the tri-state area (MAC Desk included), and the turnaround was quickly reflected in futures. Yesterday US markets were under pressure again with tech (and AI-adjacent) leading to the downside but unlike Tuesday’s session the losses were broad based. The S&P 500 closed near session lows down 1.6%, less than 1% above its rising 50d ma which is now ~7,225. The weakness was driven by an elevated CPI print, an escalation in Iran rhetoric/kinetic activity and more consternation about fund flows with the recent increase in issuance/upcoming IPOs.
Shortly after the close Oracle released earnings, putting up solid results showing very strong growth, but the report once again highlighted the upfront capital intensity. The company also announced that would raise another ~$20B of equity in FY27, on top of the $20B previously announced, but no additional debt issuance in CY 2026. The stock sold off in the aftermarket. US futures were a touch higher early in the evening but started to move higher ~10:30pm as the Knicks cut the Spurs 29-point lead in half giving fans some hope they could pull off the miracle. The gains extended overnight and futures were near the highs as weary traders made their way to their posts as oil prices pulled back despite the pickup of activity in the Middle East.
However, shortly before this morning’s inflation data President Trump took to social media to say the US “will be hitting Iran…taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure….and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.” This would mark a major escalation in the conflict as it would require boots on the ground. The headlines caused oil prices to jump a couple of dollars and futures to pullback, but markets continue to discount the rhetoric, as its always followed by but talks are still ongoing. It was a choppy session throughout most of the day with major indices holding onto modest gains but…….right on cue at 1:30, as I was wrapping up today’s note, President Trump said he was canceling scheduled strikes as “final points have been approved in principle and in detail by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt, and others.” Equities have pushed to session highs, oil prices are trying to break recent lows while Treasury yields pullback.
Headline PPI was higher than expected though the prior month was revised lower. It was the highest reading since November 2022. Core was lower than expected and prior also revised lower. Final Demand Goods rose 2.8% m.m- the largest increase since the data was first published in Dec 2009. Energy’s 10.7% increase drove 80% of the change. Final Demand Services Rose 0.3%. The volatile Trade Services (ie margins) fell 1.1% (rose 1.3% prior month). Transportation and warehousing, a segment we’ve been highlighting, rose 2.6%.
Jobless claims came in higher than expected and up from last week at 229k. It’s the third straight weekly increase for initial claims and is just below the YTD high, though overall remains relatively low. Continuing claims also ticked up but remained below 1.8ml.
Treasury yields jumped a couple of basis points from the overnight lows on the PPI report but were flat to down 2bps across the curve continuing to hover around the key levels markets have been paying attention to recently, then took a leg lower over the last hour. This comes ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting which will be the first for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It is widely expected that the easing bias will be removed from the statement, but it will be interesting to see how the Chairman positions himself. One of the dovish talking points the Chair had during his interview process was his view that AI would act as a structural disinflationary force. That may end up being the case down the road but during the current Capex-Boom phase we’re in now, it is having the opposite effect (see below).
- US 2yr -8bps to 4.07%, 5yr -9bps to 4.19%, 10yr -9bps to 4.47%, 30yr -8bps to 4.95%
- USD index: -$0.07 to $99.87
European indices ended with modest gains. The ECB raised its policy rate by 25bp as expected. Inflation expectations were revised higher and GDP lower. President Lagarde noted the Iran conflict caused a sharp increase in energy costs and that the rate increase was implemented to prevent that from embedding more deeply into broader prices. She maintained optionality about further action but press reports since suggest the central bank would remain on hold in July if energy prices didn’t push back up to fresh highs. Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. Sticking with some of the central bank theme BOJ Governor Ueda was hospitalized overnight and is expected to miss next week’s policy meeting. The central bank is still expected to hike rates but this adds an additional layer of uncertainty around communication.
Oil prices are now down ~3% testing the recent lows. Metals were under pressure throughout the day but just moved sharply higher. Ag has turned lower. Crytpo has been holding up throughout the morning and is pushing to fresh highs up >3%.
Equities have rallied broadly since the headlines with tech reversing sharply though software and the mega-caps struggle. Materials and industrials are the best performing sectors while energy has turned lower.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Thrs): ADBE, LEN, RHI, ZDGE
Economic Data:
US:
- PPI m.m / y.y: 1.1% / 6.5% vs 0.7% / 6.4% cons, prior 1.1% (revised down from 1.4%) / 5.7% (revised down from 6.0%)
- Core: 0.4% / 4.9% vs 0.5% / 5.4% cons, prior 0.7% (revised down from 1.0%) / 4.9% (revised down from 5.2%)
- Jobless Claims: 229K vs 219K cons, prior 225K
- Continuing Claims: 1795K vs 1780K cons, prior 1777K
Global:
- ECB rate decision: Hiked by 25bp as expected
- Korea Unemployment: 2.8% vs prior 2.8%
- Australia inflation expectations: 5.5% vs prior 5.6%
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