STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/27/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday, most major US indices closed on either side of unchanged ahead of a big evening of tech earnings. Energy, Industrials and Utilities led. Comm Services, Discretionary and Healthcare lagged. Geopolitical news flow pushed oil markets around. Optimism from Pakistan and reports of an agreement between Oman and Iran for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz initially moved prices and Treasury yields lower. However, later comments from Vladimir Putin suggested an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict helped reverse oil’s decline. Inflation data in the PCE was broadly inline as was consumer spending though underlying data did not scream “Robust Consumer”. Treasury yields ended higher and the USD ended higher weighing on the commodity complex. As we approached the close President Trump signed an executive order banning the purchase, import and installation of certain foreign-built bulk power equipment on the grounds of national security risks. Final rules for its implementation are due within 120 days. Names like GEV saw late-day strength. Politico reported that the administration is also looking into a new round of semiconductor tariffs, which could extend to laptops, gaming consoles and data center servers.
The tech/AI earnings results were impressive. NVDA is trading up >5% in the pre-market, which would break a string of 4 consecutive declines after earnings. It had another stellar quarter and guided to 70% FY27 revenue growth ahead of street estimates that were ~45% with the company suggesting it would be even higher if they were not memory supply constrained. They are also buying Hugging Face for $13B, the same company that OpenAI’s rouge agents attacked a few weeks ago. AI cyber threats drove cybersecurity provider CRWD’s impressive results. CRM raised revenue guidance on record orders, announced a new program with Anthropic called Claudeforce and saw Agentforce see very strong demand. Both stocks are up ~10% so it could be a rare day where chips, memory and software all trade higher. HP is trading lower after results highlighting the impact of higher memory costs. The retail earnings generally look solid though a lot of the beats are driven by tariff refunds. However, Dollar General is the only stock trading meaningfully higher in the pre-market while most others are trading modestly lower (BBY/BURL/DLTR/URBN). S&P futures are up ~0.3% well off the overnight highs while Dow/R2k futures are both slightly lower.
The spotlight firmly shifts to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech tomorrow morning. The opening acts are already starting to get the crowd warmed up. This morning’s initial and continuing claims both came in slightly better than expected. The trade deficit was larger than expected. Treasury yields are near the overnight highs up ~2bps. There is a 7yr auction this afternoon. The USD index is also ticking up slightly.
Asia was mixed despite the strong US tech earnings. Japan ended slightly lower. Memory giants Kioxia and Samsung plan to invest $31B to expand memory capacity in the country. Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.5%. The central bank raised rates by 25bp, which was the slightly consensus view. The Philippines also raised its rates. Chinese indices were mostly higher though the Hang Seng fell. Industrial profits missed expectations. Z.AI jumped 13% after releasing a new AI model that runs exclusively on Chinese chips. Meanwhile DeepSeek could see an IPO value it at $74B according to reports. Most major indices in Europe are modestly lower. Germany’s DAX is outperforming helped by tech strength. France is underperforming with pretty broad-based weakness ahead of elections.
Crude is modestly higher. There wasn’t much new in the Iran situation, but the NYT is reporting that Saudi Arabia could renew its war against Yemen’s Houthis after ongoing attacks on Saudi shipping. Meanwhile the Russian-Ukraine conflict looks like its re-escalating which is helping push natural gas prices higher. The USD strength is weighing on the metals complex. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving modestly higher.
Earnings
After-Market (Wed): A, CRWD, HP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, OOMA, P, CRM, SNPS, URBN, VEEV
Pre-Market: BBY, BBW, BURL, DG, DLTR, HRL, PURR, RY, TD
After-Market: AFRM, ADSK, GAP, IREN, MRVL, PD, RBRK, S, ULTA, WDAY
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday, most major US indices closed on either side of unchanged ahead of a big evening of tech earnings. Energy, Industrials and Utilities led. Comm Services, Discretionary and Healthcare lagged. Geopolitical news flow pushed oil markets around. Optimism from Pakistan and reports of an agreement between Oman and Iran for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz initially moved prices and Treasury yields lower. However, later comments from Vladimir Putin suggested an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict helped reverse oil’s decline. Inflation data in the PCE was broadly inline as was consumer spending though underlying data did not scream “Robust Consumer”. Treasury yields ended higher and the USD ended higher weighing on the commodity complex. As we approached the close President Trump signed an executive order banning the purchase, import and installation of certain foreign-built bulk power equipment on the grounds of national security risks. Final rules for its implementation are due within 120 days. Names like GEV saw late-day strength. Politico reported that the administration is also looking into a new round of semiconductor tariffs, which could extend to laptops, gaming consoles and data center servers.
The tech/AI earnings results were impressive. NVDA is trading up >5% in the pre-market, which would break a string of 4 consecutive declines after earnings. It had another stellar quarter and guided to 70% FY27 revenue growth ahead of street estimates that were ~45% with the company suggesting it would be even higher if they were not memory supply constrained. They are also buying Hugging Face for $13B, the same company that OpenAI’s rouge agents attacked a few weeks ago. AI cyber threats drove cybersecurity provider CRWD’s impressive results. CRM raised revenue guidance on record orders, announced a new program with Anthropic called Claudeforce and saw Agentforce see very strong demand. Both stocks are up ~10% so it could be a rare day where chips, memory and software all trade higher. HP is trading lower after results highlighting the impact of higher memory costs. The retail earnings generally look solid though a lot of the beats are driven by tariff refunds. However, Dollar General is the only stock trading meaningfully higher in the pre-market while most others are trading modestly lower (BBY/BURL/DLTR/URBN). S&P futures are up ~0.3% well off the overnight highs while Dow/R2k futures are both slightly lower.
The spotlight firmly shifts to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech tomorrow morning. The opening acts are already starting to get the crowd warmed up. This morning’s initial and continuing claims both came in slightly better than expected. The trade deficit was larger than expected. Treasury yields are near the overnight highs up ~2bps. There is a 7yr auction this afternoon. The USD index is also ticking up slightly.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.23%, 5yr +2bps to 4.39%, 10yr +2bps to 4.67%, 30yr +2bps to 5.19%
- USD index: +$0.07 to $99.16
Asia was mixed despite the strong US tech earnings. Japan ended slightly lower. Memory giants Kioxia and Samsung plan to invest $31B to expand memory capacity in the country. Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.5%. The central bank raised rates by 25bp, which was the slightly consensus view. The Philippines also raised its rates. Chinese indices were mostly higher though the Hang Seng fell. Industrial profits missed expectations. Z.AI jumped 13% after releasing a new AI model that runs exclusively on Chinese chips. Meanwhile DeepSeek could see an IPO value it at $74B according to reports. Most major indices in Europe are modestly lower. Germany’s DAX is outperforming helped by tech strength. France is underperforming with pretty broad-based weakness ahead of elections.
Crude is modestly higher. There wasn’t much new in the Iran situation, but the NYT is reporting that Saudi Arabia could renew its war against Yemen’s Houthis after ongoing attacks on Saudi shipping. Meanwhile the Russian-Ukraine conflict looks like its re-escalating which is helping push natural gas prices higher. The USD strength is weighing on the metals complex. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving modestly higher.
Earnings
After-Market (Wed): A, CRWD, HP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, OOMA, P, CRM, SNPS, URBN, VEEV
Pre-Market: BBY, BBW, BURL, DG, DLTR, HRL, PURR, RY, TD
After-Market: AFRM, ADSK, GAP, IREN, MRVL, PD, RBRK, S, ULTA, WDAY
Economic Data:
US:
- Jackson Hole Symposium
- Initial Claims: 203k vs 208K cons, prior 206K
- Continuing claims: 1788k vs 1790K cons, prior 1799K
- Trade Balance: -$118.8B vs. -$100B cons., prior -$101.4B
- 10:30am EIA Nat Gas Inventories
- 11:00am KC Fed Manufacturing Index
- 1:00pm 7y auction
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
- China Industrial Profits July (y.y): 11.2% vs prior 15.1%
- Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence: -26.6 vs -29.6 cons, prior -29.6
- France PPI y.y: 3.4% vs prior 2.8%
- France Unemployment Claims: 21.5k vs prior 5.9k
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