by Michael P. Reinking, CFA

Published on 4/22/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)

Equities finished lower yesterday as doubts rose around the path forward for the Iran situation. US officials remained stateside instead of boarding a plane for a second round of negotiations as the ceasefire deadline continued to draw closer. A deadline which President Trump said was unlikely to be extended. Oil prices extended Monday’s gains but did end off the highs while precious metals were under pressure. Ahead of the open retail sales were better than expected and earnings continued to be solid. However, major indices ended near session lows down a little more than 0.5%, pretty shallow pullback in the context of the recent rally. Outside of Kevin Warsh being called a “sock puppet” his Senate confirmation hearing was largely uneventful as he spent most of his time discussing Fed independence and mission drift. 

Before any real consternation could set in right after the close President Trump,  announced an extension of the ceasefire, coincidentally (or not) on a Tuesday yet again. Futures quickly bounced back recouping the last leg of the day’s selloff. The WSJ reported that significant progress has been made between the two sides behind the scenes, while Axios reported that Trump is only going to give Iran 3-5 more days to engage in negotiations. Futures extended gains this morning after Lebanon said it was working with Israel to extend their own ceasefire. However, there were reports that another ship in the Strait was attacked by Iran, which is apparently still undecided as to whether it will attend another round of peace talks. Equities opened higher but we’ve seen some rotation with technology outperforming with the NYSE 100 up nearly 2%, while financials and industrials pull back. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 60pts to 7,124 (+0.9%), the Dow is up 240pts to 49,390 (+0.5%), while the Russell 2k is up 13pts to 2,778 (+0.5%). It is notable that while equities are bouncing back energy prices are on the move higher again with ICE Brent trading back >$100. 

Earnings are impacting the sector level activity. As mentioned earlier tech is the primary area of strength with info tech up nearly 2% which is clicking on almost all cylinders. Apple is recouping yesterday’s losses. Semis are higher after announcements about new chips at the Google Cloud Conference and software continues to bounce. AI infrastructure provider Vertiv is trading slightly lower after reporting inline revenue while beating bottom line and boosting guidance. However, consulting companies and IT services are under some pressure. Consumer staples are up ~1% with Phillip Morris accounting for half the gains after a strong quarter and annual guidance that was ahead of the street. Energy is also moving higher with the commodity.

Industrials are under some pressure with aerospace, airlines and defense stocks underperforming despite some mixed earnings (+ BA, - GE, UAL). GE Vernova, who rang the opening bell today, is an upside standout trading up >10% saying that “demand is accelerating for our Power and Electrification solutions from a diverse set of customers…”  Building products company Masco is also up double digits after beating earnings expectations. Financials are also modestly lower with weakness in insurance. Crypto related stocks are on the move higher as Bitcoin breaks above its 100d ma and is approaching 80k despite the NY Attorney General is suing Coinbase and Gemini for allegedly running illegal gambling operations with their prediction markets. REITs are the worst performing sector with healthcare REITs underperforming. 

Treasury yields are on either side of unchanged having moved off of the morning’s lows. The US Dollar Index is modestly higher, testing resistance around its 200d ma.

Over in Asia the Nikkei closed up 0.4% on the ceasefire extension. China was mixed as the Hang Seng fell 1% with its tech names under pressure (Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu) but Shanghai gained 0.5% as its AI-focused names rose. European indexes closed modestly lower. Yields are flat after rising yesterday, though there was confusion on the UK 10y yield after the benchmark changed and distorted the reported rate move. 

Despite the ceasefire announcement oil is higher, taking Brent back above $100. Yesterday’s API data showed a larger than expected draw. Today’s EIA inventory report showed a larger than expected build but draws in gasoline and distillates. Precious metals are recouping some of yesterday’s losses though off the highs. Copper is outperforming up 2%. Overnight BHP said copper production will come in at the high end of guidance.  As mentioned earlier crypto is pushing higher.  

Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow economic data will include claims and global flash PMIs and a heavy day of earnings.

After-Market: AZZ, BANC, BANR, CACI, CCI, CHDN, CSX, FAF, FR, FULT, GGG, GL, GTY, HLX, HXL, IBM, KALU, KMI, KNX, LBRT, LRCX, LUV, LVS, MEDP, MOH, NOW, OII, PKG, RJF, ROL, RS, TSLA, TXN, URI, WEX

Pre-Market (Thurs): AAL, AXP, BFH, BX, CBRE, CMCSA, CNP, DOV, DOW, FCX, HBAN, HON, IRDM, KDP, LMT, NDAQ, NEE, PCG, PENN, PHM, POOL, R, ROP, SNA, THRM, TMO, UNP, VC, VLY, WST

 After-Market (Thurs): ABCB, AMP, ASB, BKR, BYD, CHE, COLB, DLR, ERIE, GLPI, HIG, INTC, KN, KNSL, MXL, NEM, PFG, REXR, SAP, SLM, SSNC, VRSN

Global: