STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/06/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 49,848 (+550), S&P 500 7,345 (+86), Russell 2000 2,877 (+32), NYSE FANG+ 8,666 (+156), ICE Brent Crude $101.65/barrel (-$8.22), Gold $4,692/oz (+$124), Bitcoin ~81.5k (+47)
- Iran MOA (maybe), AI earnings powering equities higher
- Oil, yields lower
- Semis continue to rip, Energy the big laggard
- Revenge of the Sixth
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- X Las Vegas: Former NFL Executive & Founder of The 33rd Team Mike Tannenbaum
- ETF Central: Red Panda Founder & CEO Ian Dunlap
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday markets followed up Star Wars Day (May the 4th) by celebrating Cinco de Mayo with a rally that recouped Monday’s loss and then some. US military leadership said Iran’s attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to close at a new all-time high while small and midcap indices were up ~1.5%. Semiconductors continued to lead to the upside with the NYSE Semi Index up >4%, bringing YTD gains to 60%. And guess what? They are up sharply again today. Oil prices and Treasury yields both moved modestly lower.
Today we follow up Cinco de Mayo by going deeper into the Star Wars holiday catalogue with a celebration on Revenge of the Sixth. We’ll acknowledge the divide in the fandom, with some preferring to celebrate Revenge of the Fifth, though we at the MAC Desk think that day belongs to Cinco. Plus it lines up with DIS earnings doing it this way. Anyway, S&P futures got off to a good start last night after President Trump said Project Freedom would be paused as “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with the Representatives of Iran”. Earlier this morning Axios, which has lived up to the first two letters of its name during this conflict, reported that both sides were close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and move to more detailed nuclear negotiations. Then the IRGC Navy chimed in with comments saying transit through the strait may be possible. This helped to push futures to session highs and oil to session lows. President Trump came back to temper some of the enthusiasm, warning about consequences if an agreement can’t be reached. Right now it looks like we’re waiting for Iran’s response to the US’s response to Iran’s 14-point proposal provided the other day.
After throwing all of that in the blender, and excluding several other related new items, the S&P 500 is up 1%. The equal-weight is lagging a bit. The Russell 2000 is about inline with some solid gains in thematic/high beta areas (Space, Quantum, etc.).
Comm Services (mega-cap tech, DIS, LYV earnings), Industrials (aerospace/defense, UBER earnings, equipment) and Materials (IFF, AMCR earnings, miners) are leading higher. As we noted above the semis group is having another day of sharp gains, propelling Tech. The force is strong with them. AMD is up 15% on earnings, driving the AI story today though there are plenty more joining the caravan. Software is under pressure though Oracle and Microsoft are higher on the AI spending news. Corning is up over 15% as well on their Investor Day that highlighted the AI opportunity ahead of it, including an NVDA partnership for optical connectivity. On top of that, Anthropic plans to spend ~$200B with Google over the next 5 years according to The Information. Energy is the main laggard on crude’s decline, and Staples (ag traders lower), Healthcare (a few sharp decliners on earnings) and Utilities are lagging.
Brent crude is down ~7% ~$102 (LOD $96.75) on the Iran news. Precious metals continue to rally with crude and yields lower. Ag is also lower and crypto is flat to lower as Bitcoin settles in after a solid move higher since Friday.
This morning there was a strong ADP jobs survey which showed 109k jobs were added to the economy, up from 62k last month driven primarily by services. The bulk of the job gains are happening at the barbells with small and large companies accounting for most of the hiring.
The Treasury refunding statement held auction sizes for 2-7yrs steady and ”anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters”. That statement was subject to speculation as to whether it would be altered to hint at an increase in issuance in the near-future, so the lack of change was bullish for Treasuries.
Treasuries are bid today with oil falling and the refunding update, pushing yields down 5-8bp across the curve and the Dollar lower as well. The US Dollar Index fell below its 200d ma ~98.40, currently at $97.90. Around midnight there was another sharp rally in the Yen, presumably intervention related, that took it to ¥155, but it has weakened from those best levels, currently back around ~¥156.40.
- US 2yr -8bps to 2Y%, 5yr -8bps to 5Y%, 10yr -7bps to 10Y%, 30yr -5bps to 30Y%
- USD index: -$0.39 to $97.92
European equities were sharply higher with major indexes advancing 2+%. PPIs rose sharply from last month though that was largely expected. Japan remained closed for the holiday but both China and South Korea moved higher after reopening. The China Shanghai Composite was up >1% helped by an improvement in the services PMI. South Korea was the standout with Samsung rallying sharply and clearing the $1T market capitalization threshold after yesterday’s Apple news (alternative manufacturers).
Let's Go Knicks!
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): ALB, APA, APP, ARM, ATO, AXON, BKD, BROS, CAPL, CF, CMP, CW, CXT, CODI, COHR, CPK, DASH, ES, FTNT, GNK, GT, HCI, HLI, HRB, HST, KTOS, MET, MUR, NVST, OBDC, PAYC, PRI, PTC, QGEN, RYN, O, TKO, TPL, WBD, WES, WHR, WTS, ZG
Pre-Market (Thrs): ARW, BDX, CG, CRL, LNG, DDOG, EPAM, EVRG, FOUR, FUN, GWW, HAE, HTZ, HWM, KVUE, LEG, LNC, LOAR, MCD, MTD, PLNT, RXO, SHAK, SPB, SPH, SRE, TFX, TPR, TRGP, U, VST, WBD, ZTS
After-Market: (Thrs): ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, COIN, CRWV, DBX, DXC, DKNG, EXPE, FBIN, G, GILD, GMED, HUBS, MCHP, MCK, MP, MSI, NET, RGA, RKT, RMAX, RNG, RSG, STRZ, TOST, TTD, XYZ
Economic Data:
US:
- (Tues AMC) API Oil Inventories: -8.1M vs -2.8M cons, prior -1.79M
- Mortgage Apps: -3.7% w/w vs prior 1.2%
- Refis: -5.0% vs prior -4.4%
- ADP Employment Change: 109k vs. 99k cons., prior 62k
- Oil Inventories: -2.314M vs cons -3.3M, prior -6.233M
- Fed Speakers: Musaelm, Goolsbee, Hammack
Global:
- China RatingDog Services PMI: 52.6 vs. 52.0 cons., prior 52.1
- South Korea Inflation: 0.5%/2.6% m.m/y.y vs. 0.5%/2.6% cons., prior 0.3%/2.2%
- India Services PMI (final): 58.8 prior 57.5
- EU PPI: 3.4% m/m vs. 3.3% cons., -0.6%
- EU Services PMI (final): 47.6 prior 47.4
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 5/06/26 (a/o 9:15 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday markets celebrated Cinco de Mayo with a rally recouping Monday’s loss and then some as US military leadership said Monday’s Iran attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations. The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high up 0.8% while small and midcap indices were up ~1.5%. Semiconductors continued to lead to the upside with the NSYE Semi index up >4% bringing YTD gains to 60%, spoiler alert they are up sharply again this morning. Oil prices and Treasury yields both moved modestly lower.
It has been a wildly volatile overnight session as we’ve had a ton of Iran headlines. Apologies in advance for the blow by blow but have been putting this together as we go. Last night futures started to move higher after President Trump said Project Freedom would be paused as “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with the Representatives of Iran”. The gains were pretty muted until just before 5am this morning when Axios, which has lived up to the first two letters of its name during this conflict, broke a story that the US/Iran were close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed Nuclear negotiations. About an hour later the IRGC Navy also chimed in with some positive comments saying with the end of 'threats from aggressors' and in light of new procedures, safe and stable transit through the strait will be possible “. This helped to push futures to session highs and oil to session lows. However, since President Trump tempered some of the enthusiasm once again warning that there is a big stick if an agreement can’t be reached and telling the NY Post that it was “too soon” to start thinking about face-to-face talks. Right around the same time an Iranian official noted that the Axios text is just America’s wish list. Coming full circle (hopefully this is it) Axios has chimed in again noting that the US expects a response withing 48 hours on several key points. S&P futures are holding the bulk of the overnight gains but are about 25pts off the highs currently up 0.7% while R2K futures are up ~1%. Oil prices are down ~6% with ICE Brent currently trading ~$103.50 (LOD $96.75). Outside of the Iran headlines there have also been another strong round of earnings and a couple of AI related partnership/deal announcements helping to drive the upside.
This morning there was a strong ADP jobs survey which showed 109k jobs were added to the economy up from 62k last month driven primarily by services. The bulk of the job gains are happening at the barbells with small and large companies accounting for most of the hiring. The Treasury refunding statement was released at 8:30 holding auction sizes for 2-7yrs steady and saying it ”anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters”. Treasury yields are moving to the downside but have also come off the overnight lows currently down 4-8bps across the curve. The 2yr is down 8bps at 3.87% (LOD 3.84%). The USD index is holding just above the recent lows ~$97.50. Right around midnight there was another sharp rally in the Yen, presumably intervention related. It is up just over 1% vs. the USD at ~156.15¥/$.
Government Yields
Japan remained closed for the holiday but both China and South Korea moved higher after reopening. The China Shanghai Composite was up >1% helped by an improvement in the services PMI. South Korea was the standout with Samsung rallying sharply and clearing the $1T market capitalization threshold after yesterday’s Apple news. European indices are moving sharply higher up >2% across the board with natural gas prices falling >5%.
We discussed the energy complex above. Metals are moving sharply higher gold, copper and other precious metals are up >2% while silver outperforms up closer to 5%. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto continues its move higher with Bitcoin and Ethereum both up ~1%, ~82k and 2.4k respectively. Altcoins are outperforming with the risk on move.
Very busy earnings/news day here are a couple of highlights.
Earnings:
After Market: AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Pre-Market (Wed): APO, BCO, BWA, CDW, CLH, CVS, DIS, EXC, GPN, JCI, KHC, KMT MAR, NRG, NYT, OC, SN, SR, UBER, YOU
After-Market (Wed): ALB, APA, APP, ARM, ATO, AXON, BKD, BROS, CAPL, CF, CMP, CW, CXT, CODI, COHR, CPK, DASH, ES, FTNT, GNK, GT, HCI, HLI, HRB, HST, KTOS, MET, MUR, NVST, OBDC, PAYC, PRI, PTC. QGEN, RYN, O, TKO, TPL, WBD, WES, WHR, WTS, ZG
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday markets celebrated Cinco de Mayo with a rally recouping Monday’s loss and then some as US military leadership said Monday’s Iran attacks were below the threshold of restarting major combat operations. The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high up 0.8% while small and midcap indices were up ~1.5%. Semiconductors continued to lead to the upside with the NSYE Semi index up >4% bringing YTD gains to 60%, spoiler alert they are up sharply again this morning. Oil prices and Treasury yields both moved modestly lower.
It has been a wildly volatile overnight session as we’ve had a ton of Iran headlines. Apologies in advance for the blow by blow but have been putting this together as we go. Last night futures started to move higher after President Trump said Project Freedom would be paused as “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with the Representatives of Iran”. The gains were pretty muted until just before 5am this morning when Axios, which has lived up to the first two letters of its name during this conflict, broke a story that the US/Iran were close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed Nuclear negotiations. About an hour later the IRGC Navy also chimed in with some positive comments saying with the end of 'threats from aggressors' and in light of new procedures, safe and stable transit through the strait will be possible “. This helped to push futures to session highs and oil to session lows. However, since President Trump tempered some of the enthusiasm once again warning that there is a big stick if an agreement can’t be reached and telling the NY Post that it was “too soon” to start thinking about face-to-face talks. Right around the same time an Iranian official noted that the Axios text is just America’s wish list. Coming full circle (hopefully this is it) Axios has chimed in again noting that the US expects a response withing 48 hours on several key points. S&P futures are holding the bulk of the overnight gains but are about 25pts off the highs currently up 0.7% while R2K futures are up ~1%. Oil prices are down ~6% with ICE Brent currently trading ~$103.50 (LOD $96.75). Outside of the Iran headlines there have also been another strong round of earnings and a couple of AI related partnership/deal announcements helping to drive the upside.
This morning there was a strong ADP jobs survey which showed 109k jobs were added to the economy up from 62k last month driven primarily by services. The bulk of the job gains are happening at the barbells with small and large companies accounting for most of the hiring. The Treasury refunding statement was released at 8:30 holding auction sizes for 2-7yrs steady and saying it ”anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters”. Treasury yields are moving to the downside but have also come off the overnight lows currently down 4-8bps across the curve. The 2yr is down 8bps at 3.87% (LOD 3.84%). The USD index is holding just above the recent lows ~$97.50. Right around midnight there was another sharp rally in the Yen, presumably intervention related. It is up just over 1% vs. the USD at ~156.15¥/$.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -7bps to 3.88%, 5yr -8bps to 4.01%, 10yr -7bps to 4.36%, 30yr -5bps to 4.94%
- USD index: -$0.53 to $97.79
Japan remained closed for the holiday but both China and South Korea moved higher after reopening. The China Shanghai Composite was up >1% helped by an improvement in the services PMI. South Korea was the standout with Samsung rallying sharply and clearing the $1T market capitalization threshold after yesterday’s Apple news. European indices are moving sharply higher up >2% across the board with natural gas prices falling >5%.
We discussed the energy complex above. Metals are moving sharply higher gold, copper and other precious metals are up >2% while silver outperforms up closer to 5%. Ag is pulling back modestly. Crypto continues its move higher with Bitcoin and Ethereum both up ~1%, ~82k and 2.4k respectively. Altcoins are outperforming with the risk on move.
Very busy earnings/news day here are a couple of highlights.
- Multiple tech companies have continued to beat already very high expectations (sharply higher AMD, FLEX, VECO, SMCI, ALAB). LITE and ANET are both modestly lower despite great numbers.
- Anthropic committed to spending $200ml on Google Cloud over the next 5yrs. In addition, there was an Information report highlighting contracts involving Anthropic and OpenAI now make up around ~50% of the ~$2T in revenue backlog across Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle.
- Nvidia and Corning (+>15%) announce partnership to expand US manufacturing of optical connectivity solutions for AI infrastructure
- Uber (+>5%) after solid results
Earnings:
After Market: AEE, AGM, AMD, ANET, AIZ, BV, CBT, CC, CE, DOC, LEU, COMP, CTVA, COTY, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EA, EMR, EOG, EXEL, FOA, GIC, GNL, GXO, HL, IFF, J, KVYO, LCID, LDI, LITE, LUMN, LYV, MSTR, ONTO, OXY, PBI, PSTL, RPU, SOLV, SMCI, SWKS, UIS, VOYA, WK, WOLF
Pre-Market (Wed): APO, BCO, BWA, CDW, CLH, CVS, DIS, EXC, GPN, JCI, KHC, KMT MAR, NRG, NYT, OC, SN, SR, UBER, YOU
After-Market (Wed): ALB, APA, APP, ARM, ATO, AXON, BKD, BROS, CAPL, CF, CMP, CW, CXT, CODI, COHR, CPK, DASH, ES, FTNT, GNK, GT, HCI, HLI, HRB, HST, KTOS, MET, MUR, NVST, OBDC, PAYC, PRI, PTC. QGEN, RYN, O, TKO, TPL, WBD, WES, WHR, WTS, ZG
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage Apps: -4.4% w/w prior -1.6%
- ADP Employment Change: 109k vs. 99k cons., prior 62k
- Treasury Refunding Announcement
- 10:30 Oil Inventories
- 1:00 Fed Goolsbee
- 1:30 Fed Hammack
- China RatingDog Services PMI: 52.6 vs. 52.0 cons., prior 52.1
- South Korea Inflation: 0.5%/2.6% m.m/y.y vs. 0.5%/2.6% cons., prior 0.3%/2.2%
- India Services PMI (final): 58.8 prior 57.5
- EU PPI: 3.4% m/m vs. 3.3% cons., -0.6%
- EU Services PMI (final): 47.6 prior 47.4
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