STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA-  Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 11/12/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 52,496 (+9), S&P 500 7,614 (-5), Russell 2000 2,820 (-26), NYSE FANG+ 17,623 (+38), ICE Brent Crude $95.43/barrel (+$2.67), Gold $3,888/oz (-$113), Bitcoin ~71.7k (-2623)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday bond markets were closed for Veterans Day, but equity markets rallied the troops to a positive day. The S&P 500 ended up 1.3% reversing most of the post-election selloff with the index closing right at its 20/100d ma’s.  The AI complex drove much of the strength on the heels of Coreweave earnings, positive news flow related to the Anthropic IPO and OpenAI growth. The equal-weight version of the index trailed the market cap weighted index closing up 0.8%. Healthcare and yield/interest rate sensitive pockets of the market pulled back. 

Futures were modestly lower overnight with Nvidia back in the headlines. The WSJ reported that the board met to discuss the fate of CEO Jensen Huang as a second affair, with another senior executive at the firm, came to light. The official press release announcing his resignation hit just before the open. CFO Colette Kress would serve as interim CEO during the search process. Coming into today the stock was down nearly 30% from its early October high and it was trading off >10% in the pre-market. This company and its visionary leader have been at the center of this AI technological revolution and more recently the financing to help the investment cycle, so the potential ramifications are far and wide. This also comes at a time when competition was increasing and the lines between Nvidia and many of its customers were starting to blur. The outcome was not totally out of left field, but the initial response within markets was to sell first and ask questions later. Most of the AI complex was under pressure in the pre-market though we’ve seen stocks recovering some of those losses. The company’s largest competitors AMD and Broadcom are both up ~5% while Google and Amazon are both up ~2% given their burgeoning chip businesses. This story will not go away anytime soon with government investigations being opened up and Jensen expected to testify before Congress before Thanksgiving. This is also happening ahead of earnings next week and President Trump’s scheduled visit to China.

Just before the official Nvidia news hit the tape, futures took a leg lower as oil prices moved modestly higher after President Trump posted that “We don’t need a deal with Iran”. This also added to the weakness in Treasury markets with yields extending the post CPI move higher up over 10bps across the curve since Tuesday’s close and between 30 - 40bps across the curve since hitting a low last week. The S&P 500 opened down a little more than 0.5% but has recouped those losses is currently hovering around unchanged, as the other mega-cap tech names are helping to offset the Nvidia losses. The equal weigh also rallied after the open but has turned lower again and is back near session lows. Small and midcaps underperform with the move higher in yields. In a repeat of what we said on Tuesday, the resilience in the equity market given the news flow is pretty impressive. 
Outside the all-consuming Nvidia news flow it is a pretty quiet session. Within the S&P 500 the adv:dec is little worse than 1:1 with most sectors trading on either side of unchanged. Energy is the positive standout up 2%. Comm services and consumer discretionary are both in the green but Alphabet and Amazon are offsetting losses elsewhere within the sector. Materials are the worst performing sector down 0.6% there is weakness in the miners with the commodities under pressure again. Ag chemical company Corteva is getting hit sharply on concerns about it Brazil business.  Info tech is down 0.3%. Neocloud, Nebius (>-15%), reported this morning. The company highlighted strong demand and improving economics. Like Coreweave, it highlighted the pickup in customer prepayments, helping to ease funding concerns. However, it increased Capex guidance sharply and lowered 2026 revenue guidance due to third party capacity delays. Supermicro is also down >10% on reports the DOJ is opening an investigation into the company related to involvement with Megaspeed. 
In economic data, this morning initial claims ticked up modestly to 200k while continuing claims ticked just under 1.7ml. Existing home sales disappointed falling 5.5% m/m from an already depressed number, hitting the lowest level since August of 2010. As mentioned earlier Treasuries continue to slide. Despite that concession ahead of this afternoon’s 30yr auction it tailed like the 10yr auction earlier this week. The USD continues to strengthen hitting a new YTD high.

Stats below since Tuesday -
  • US 2yr +13bps to 4.88%, 5yr +13bps to 4.96%, 10yr +11bps to 5.11%, 30yr +8bps to 5.44%
  • USD index: +$0.98 to $103.11

Markets in Asia were mostly lower last night as the Nvidia news flow started to hit the tape. The Nikkei fell 0.7% with major tech names down 3-5%. The index approached a test of resistance at its 200d ma but pulled back to finish at the lows. New accounting rules should make it easier for Japan’s big life insurance companies to hold JGB’s.  The yen has been steadily weakening since the early September interventions and is approaching 160 again, which could trigger another round of FX intervention. Chinese equities were lower as well. Alibaba fell 7% locally and is down about 30% over the past 3 months. Chinese semiconductors are benefiting from Nvidia’s issues as well as the US Commerce Dept. reportedly crafting new rules to block Chinese access to US chips. Cambricon gained 8% today after yesterday’s 7% bounce. Meanwhile US container imports saw their highest volume on record in Descartes’ Global Shipping Report. European indices are trading marginally higher but closed off their highs. Retail, Insurers and Healthcare led while Tech and Basic Resources fell. 
Oil prices are up ~2%. US and European nat gas are both higher extending this week’s gains. The metals complex continues to be under pressure. Yesterday gold broke back below 4k and is down >2% today breaking below 3,900 hitting a new YTD low. Crypto also continues to be under pressure. Bitcoin is down >2% breaking below its 200d ma (~73k) currently trading ~71.7k. Ethereum is down a similar amount testing 2k. Ag is pulling back modestly giving back some of this week’s gains. 
Quickly looking ahead there are a couple of tech earnings out after the close before the focus turns to what should be a very wet Giants game this evening. The only economic data on the calendar tomorrow is PPI.

Earnings:
  • After-Market: AMAT, CBRS, CSCO, FLO
Economic Data:
US:
  • Initial Claims: 200k vs. 195k cons., prior 189k
  • Continuing Claims: 1.697ml vs. 1.718ml cons,. prior 1.71ml
  • Existing Home Sales: 3.75ml vs. 3.85ml cons., prior 3.97ml
Global:
  • UK GDP QoQ: 0.7% vs. 0.7% cons., prior 0.5%
  • UK Industrial Production: 0.3% vs. -0.3% cons., prior 0.7%
  • India Inflation: 6.09% vs. 5.93% cons., prior 5.54%

By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates.  Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.

Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.

© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.  All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates.  For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.