STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/23/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,583 (-281), S&P 500 7,714 (-50), Russell 2000 2,847 (-43), NYSE FANG+ 19,235 (-160), ICE Brent Crude $102.55/barrel (+$3.30), Gold $4,327/oz (-$50), Bitcoin ~84.2k (-2012)
MAC Desk Commentary:
It’s the first official day of fall, confirmed by the weather outside and NY sports teams doing their best to smush the hopes of their fanbases. Yesterday was a reasonably quiet session with major indices closing on either side of unchanged, consolidating the gains of Monday’s Meta Muse-motivated mobilization across equities. Alliterate that, AI. Speaking of, AI chips/memory/hardware continued to outperform while the AI disruption trade took a new twist with fears that AI agents could disrupt wealth management, traditional brokerage businesses, payments processors and online travel companies. The financial sector was the worst performing within the S&P 500, falling 2%. Energy and Communication Services were both down 1%. Materials and Consumer Staples were both up >1%. President Trump gave a wide-ranging speech at the UNGA, and late in the session he acknowledged that US officials met with an Iranian delegation, suggesting that it went well. Oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive session with ICE Brent breaking below $100.

It was a quiet overnight session as markets awaited the arrival of President Xi in Washington this afternoon and Mark Zuckerberg’s keynote at Meta’s Connect conference after the close. The NYSE helped fill the void as we welcomed First Lady Melania Trump to the trading floor as she rang the Opening Bell.

Oil prices and yields were a little lower overnight, putting a modest bid in equity futures. However European yields moved steadily higher throughout the morning after strong flash PMI’s, and oil began to rise as well. The S&P 500 opened flat and headed down from there as yields continued to climb globally. Oil has been volatile which has also pushed equities around. The S&P is currently off -0.6% but above the lows near -1%. Mega caps are underperforming and the equal-weight is faring better, down 0.3%. Small caps are lagging with the Russell 2000 down over 1%. Stocks that got hit in yesterday’s Muse-pocolypse aren’t seeing much of a bounce- SCHW and RJF flat (down 4-6% yesterday), BKNG -4% (-3%).  Expedia was sharply lower yesterday as well until announcing right before the close that it was integrating with Muse, closing around unchanged. That late-day move has completely reversed today and the stock is down 6%.
Energy returned to a leadership position today with crude up after declining five straight days. Diesel prices have become a big story, as prices are over $8 a gallon in California and European diesel crack spreads hit record highs. President Trump has supported an export ban, but many are opposed, including Energy Secretary Wright. He did, however, hint at potential export restrictions. More on that in a moment.

Industrials is the only other sector higher, with defense contractors, machinery and rail stocks leading the way, while airlines lag. Financials is flat. Banks are modesty lower as are asset managers and private credit. Exchanges and data providers are leading while insurance is mixed.

Utilities are lagging with yields rising, along with Discretionary (travel & leisure weak). McDonald’s is lower on the heels of its Investor Day. Management expects traffic growth will be flat and inflation remain elevated, so topline growth will need to come from taking share. For Comm Services, Alphabet’s 3%, decline is weighing on the sector.
Most of the retail/thematic baskets are under pressure- neoclouds, nuclear, genomics, space, all seeing broad losses. Quantum stocks were in focus this morning after IonQ demonstrated the first end-to-end, real-time quantum error correction decoder, finally offering an advancement from Ralphie’s Little Orphan Annie decoder ring in A Christmas Story. 
After the open US flash PMIs were released and showed economic activity was better than expected and rose from last month. It was a Tale of Two Cities, however. As noted in the release, “US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September.”  However, “this growth is being accompanied by some of the most severe supply chain bottlenecks seen in the near-two-decade survey history (ex-COVID).” Prices continued to increase and backlogs are rising sharply, which could develop into new inflationary pressures. 
The Treasury announced it would buy back $6B in longer-dated Treasuries tomorrow, unchanged from the last repurchase, whose amount disappointed investors. Today’s 5y auction was weak, tailing by 3bp as it occurred during a treasury sell-off.  

Mortgage applications and refis fell and the 30y rate crossed over 7%. Fed governor Barr spoke after the open and did his part to push yields higher, saying inflation is “not clearly trending toward target in a timely way”, “risks to achieving our inflation target have increased” and “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed”. He then discussed the main topic of his speech: the unaffordability of shelter.  

Treasury yields were up earlier in the day, then took another leg higher on the PMI data and continued to rise through Barr’s speech. Yields are up 10-plus bp across the curve as the 2y hits 4.90%- reminder fed funds is at 3.75% - 4.00%. Expectations for an October rate hike are at 75% versus 55% yesterday. The USD index is extending its gains, up over 0.5% to almost 101, and up for the 6th time in last 8 days.

  • US 2yr +12bps to 4.91%, 5yr +16bps to 5.01%, 10yr +16bps to 5.12%, 30yr +11bps to 5.41%
  • USD index: +$0.46 to $100.78
Global markets were mostly lower as global yields rose. Japan remained closed for holiday. China/Hong Kong closed modestly lower ahead of the Trump-Xi summit with tech stocks under pressure. South Korea was up ~1%. European indices finished lower, near worst levels. The UK managed to close unchanged with oil names higher. Manufacturing flash PMIs were inline overall and largely unchanged from last month but Services were better than expected- France and Germany jumped into expansion from contraction last month.
Brent is up over 3% while WTI is up 1% but off its highs after Politico reported that the White House was working on a temporary diesel export ban. Diesel had been pulling back and fell further on the news. However, a White House official said the report was actually “fake news”, causing diesel to bounce off its lows and keeping equities from bouncing further. Precious metals are under pressure with the rise in yields and copper is higher on the strong PMIs. Ag is lower while crypto has pulled back- Bitcoin having fallen back below $85K. 
Earnings:
  • After-Market: FUL, SFIX
  • Pre-Market (Thrs): BB, DRI, SNX
  • After-Market (Thrs): COST, SCHL
Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage applications: -0.8% vs prior -0.8%
  • Refis: -2.6% vs prior -8.8%
  • 30yr rate: 7.12% vs prior 6.97%
  • Flash PMIs, Manufacturing / Services
  • 57.0 / 58.7 vs 53.6 / 56.0 cons, prior 53.9 / 56.5
  • EIA crude inventories: 2.969M vs -0.6M cons, prior -0.64M
  • API inventories (Tues AMC): 1.786M vs -0.5M cons, prior 7.14M

Global:
  • Manufacturing / Services flash PMIs:
  • India: 55.7 / 55.8 vs prior 52.8 / 54.1
  • Australia: 49.3 / 51.4 vs prior 52.0 / 53.2
  • EU: 52.7 / 53.0 vs 52.6 / 51.5 cons, prior 52.7 / 51.6
  • UK: 52.0 / 51.7 vs 51.5 / 52.0 cons, prior 51.7 / 52.5
  • Germany: 53.8 / 52.9 vs 54.0 / 50.0 cons, prior 54.3 / 49.7
  • France: 50.3 / 51.4 vs 50.9 / 48.3 cons, prior 51.1 / 48.0
  • Indonesia rate decision: Unchanged as expected
  • Taiwan Industrial Production y.y: 23.47% vs prior 23.95%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 9/22/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
It is the first official day of fall, confirmed by the weather outside.  Yesterday was a reasonably quiet session with major indices closing on either side of unchanged consolidating the gains of Monday’s Meta Muse motivated rally, that’s a lot of M’s. AI chips/memory/hardware continued to outperform while the AI disruption trade took a new twist with fears that AI agents could disrupt wealth management, traditional brokerage businesses, payments processors and online travel companies. The financial sector was the worst performing within the S&P 500 falling 2% while energy and communication services were both down 1%. Materials and consumer staples were both up >1%. President Trump gave a wide-ranging speech at the UNGA. Late in the session he acknowledged hat US officials met with an Iranian delegation suggesting that it went well. Oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive session with ICE Brent breaking below $100.
It’s been a very quiet overnight session as markets await the arrival of President Xi in Washington this afternoon and Mark Zuckerberg’s keynote at Meta’s Connect conference after the close. However, there is some buzz on the floor as the First Lady will be ringing the opening bell. Oil prices and yields were modestly lower overnight putting a bid in equity futures. Oil/yields started to reverse around 6:30 this morning and equity futures have followed suit turning slightly lower. Quantum stocks are in focus this morning after IonQ (+>10%) demonstrated the first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder. Worthington Enterprises and Cracker Barrell are both trading higher after earnings while Paychex is under pressure after its results.
 

 
Mortgage applications fell 1.5% w.w as mortgage rates crossed over 7%. After the open S&P Global Flash PMIs will be released. There are a couple of Fed speakers throughout the day (Barr, Goolsbee). At 11:00 the Treasury will announce the size of tomorrow’s liquidity support buyback, which disappointed markets a couple of weeks ago. There is also a 2yr floating rate auction at 11:30 and $70B 5yr auction at 1:00. Treasury yields are up 1-2bps across the curve with the 2yr ticking to a new YTD high at 4.79%. The move higher seems to be in response to yields in Europe which started to move higher after the release of flash PMIs this morning. 2yr yields in Germany and France are both up ~6bps while yields in Italy are blowing out up 10-15bps across the curve. The USD index is extending recent gains up ~0.35% starting to separate from the $100 level.
 
  • US 2yr +1bps to 4.80%, 5yr +2bps to 4.87%, 10yr +2bps to 4.99%, 30yr +2bps to 5.32%
  • USD index: +$0.33 to $100.65
 
Global markets were mixed overnight. Japan remained closed for holiday. China/Hong Kong closed modestly lower ahead of today’s summit with tech stocks under pressure. South Korea was up ~1%.  Indonesia kept rates on hold as expected. European Manufacturing flash PMIs were inline overall and largely unchanged from last month while remaining in the expansion zone (>50). Services were better than expected with France and Germany jumping into expansion from contraction last month. European indices opened modestly higher but have been drifting lower throughout the session as yields have moved higher.
 
 

 
Oil prices have reversed overnight losses with ICE Brent up ~1% trading just over $100. Oil inventories are out after the open. US natural gas prices are extending yesterday’s move higher breaking above $3 while prices in Europe are a touch lower. The USD strength and increasing rate hike expectations is weighing on the metals complex. Ag is modestly lower. Crypto moved higher during Asian market hours but is now modestly lower but holding on to the bulk of Monday’s gains.
 

 
Earnings:
After-Market (Tues): KBH, WOR
Pre-Market: CBRL, CTAS, GIS, MANU, PAYX 
After-Market: FUL, SFIX
 
Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage applications: -0.8% vs prior -0.8%
    • Refis: -2.6% vs prior -8.8%
    • 30yr rate: 7.12% vs prior 6.97%
  • 9:45am Flash PMIs
  • 10:45am Fed Barr speech
  • 10:30am EIA crude inventories
  • 11:30am 2y auction
  • 1:00pm 5y bond auction
Global:
  • Manufacturing / Services Flash PMIs:
    • India: 55.7 / 55.8 vs prior 52.8 / 54.1
    • Australia: 49.3 / 51.4 vs prior 52.0 / 53.2
    • EU: 52.7 / 53.0 vs 52.6 / 51.5 cons, prior 52.7 / 51.6
    • UK: 52.0 / 51.7 vs 51.5 / 52.0 cons, prior 51.7 / 52.5
    • Germany: 53.8 / 52.9 vs 54.0 / 50.0 cons, prior 54.3 / 49.7
    • France: 50.3 / 51.4 vs 50.9 / 48.3 cons, prior 51.1 / 48.0
  • Indonesia rate decision: Unchanged as expected
  • Taiwan Industrial Production y.y: 23.47% vs prior 23.95%

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