STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 4/02/26
DOW 46,422 (-144), S&P 500 6,565 (-10), Russell 2000 2,518 (+6), NYSE FANG+ 14,059 (-0), ICE Brent Crude $108.98/barrel (+$7.82), Gold $4,684/oz (-$129), Bitcoin ~66.8k (-1587)
- Happy Anniversary!
- Moonstruck
- Equities reverse early weakness on latest Hormuz hope
- Oil sharply higher but not denting stocks too much
- Markets closed tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 522: Visa CMO Frank Cooper on the B2AI Study & Visa’s Approach to Commerce’s Next Era
- ETF Central: Team Epiphany Founder & CEO Coltrane Curtis
- NYSE Research Insights: Fractional Reporting Early Findings
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Prepayments Rise on Recent Refinance Activity and Serious Delinquencies Increase as Cure Rates Slow
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Happy One Year Anniversary of Liberation Day! Yes, a year ago today in the Rose Garden President Trump unveiled his giant tariff cards displaying nosebleed tariff rates on nations around the world. We’ve come so far!
With all the chaos, and war and partisanship and AI and SAAS-pocolypses we’ve written about here, it was an awesome moment yesterday watching with my family as Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen fired up the giant, earth shaking SLS rocket and began their journey to fly around the moon, returning there for the first time in over 50 years. It felt great to be just as excited as my kids, and it was a hell of a way for NASA to kickstart the next chapter of space exploration. We’re here for all of it.
Back to the markets, which are closed tomorrow, though the monthly jobs report will be published. We could see elevated volatility as investors figure out how much risk they want to hold over a long weekend.
Yesterday equities followed up on Tuesday’s strong gains, but ended off the highs as news continued to produce conflicting signals, ahead of President Trump’s speech Wednesday night. He largely kept to comments that he and others in the administration have previously made- mainly that core military objectives have been met and the US is close to finishing the job. However the lack of a defined exit strategy, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz, led to futures selling off overnight and crude jumping. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1.5%, but then saw yet another rally on hopes of de-escalation after headlines hit that Iran was drafting plans with Oman for traffic in the Strait. The S&P is around flat today with the equal-weight, small and mid-cap indexes all trading right around it. I had to triple check it, but the index is up 3% this week, which would end the steak of weekly losses at 5. Small and mid caps have kept pace with large caps.
The sectors are split between gains and losses. Real Estate is leading, paced by residential names. Discretionary is seeing the sharpest losses. A lot of that is from Telsa’s 6% decline on soft deliveries, but Travel & Leisure and retail are down as well.
Global yields were volatile. UK gilts and German bunds were up 10 and 5bp, respectively before erasing much of that after turning lower as equities turned higher. Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve. The USD Dollar Index is moving back up to ~100. Weekly jobless claims came in below estimates keeping any concerns about a weakening economy at bay.
- US 2yr -1bps to 3.80%, 5yr -1bps to 3.94%, 10yr -1bps to 4.31%, 30yr -1bps to 4.89%
- USD index: +$0.40 to $99.86
The modest equity decline is interesting in light of the strong move higher in crude. Brent jumped from $100 to $105 last night, and extended higher throughout the morning and is near its best levels. US Nat gas is marginally lower, Europe up 5%. Precious metals are under some pressure. Gold is trying to hold its 100d ma ~$4640. Crypto is also lower as Ether tries to hold $2k.
European markets finished well off their lows, down modestly after rebounding alongside US equities. The UK outperformed, gaining a little less than 1% as gains in big pharma and energy tilted things into the green. A push to reset the UK-EU relationship is gaining momentum in the wake of the Iran conflict. Asian equities set the pace for today’s trading. The Nikkei opened higher following Wednesday’s US gains but weakened during the speech, ending over 2% lower. The yen turned lower against the Dollar, heading back towards the 160 line in the sand, and a 10y JGB auction was weak. China finished lower as well, though Shanghai and Hang Seng fared relatively better (down less than 1%). Hong Kong will be closed until Wednesday and mainland markets will be closed Monday. South Korea was among the hardest hit in the region, down 4%.
Have a Happy Easter and Passover if you celebrate, and if not, enjoy time with friends and family anyway, perhaps while watching the Men’s and Women’s Final Fours.
Earnings:
- After-Market: None
Economic Data:
US:
- Jobless Claims: 202k vs 212k cons, prior 211k
- Continuing Claims: 1841k vs 1840k cons, prior 1816k
- Trade Balance: $-57.3B vs $-59.2B cons, prior $-54.5B
- Exports: $314.8B vs prior $302.1B
- Imports: $372.1B vs prior $356.6B
- EIA Nat Gas Inventories: 36Bcf vs 34Bcf cons, prior -54Bcf
- Oil Rig Count: 411 vs prior 409
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
- S. Korea CPI (March) m.m / y.y: 0.3% / 2.2% vs 0.6% / 2.4% cons, prior 0.3% / 2.0%
- Australia Trade Balance: A$5.686B vs A$2.6B cons, prior A$2.258B
- India Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 vs flash 53.8
- Italy Retail Sales m.m: 0.0% vs 0.4% cons, prior 0.6%
- Canada Trade Balance: C$-2.3B vs C$-2.3B cons, prior C$-3.65B
NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 04/02/2026 (a/o 3:00 pm)
Good morning and Happy One Year Anniversary of Liberation Day!
Yes, it’s been one year since President Trump’s Rose Garden event where he unveiled his giant tariff (not tarot) cards displaying nosebleed rates on nations around the world. We’ve come so far! With all the chaos, and war and partisanship and fill-in-the-blank-pocolypses we’ve been writing about, it was an awesome moment yesterday watching with my family as Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen fired up the giant, earth shaking SLS rocket and began their journey to fly around the moon, returning for the first time in over 50 years. Felt great to be just as excited as my kids, and it was a hell of a way for NASA to kickstart the next chapter of space exploration. We’re here for all of it.
Back to the markets. Yesterday US equities started Q2 by extending Tuesday’s rally on more hope of an approaching the exit ramp in Iran. However, the totality of comments and headlines throughout the day once again produced more of a mixed message, cutting into the best gains earlier in the day. Quick, important side note- markets are closed tomorrow but the monthly jobs report will be published, so we could see elevated volatility as investors figure out how much risk they want to hold over a long weekend.
President Trump addressed the nation last night and largely kept to earlier comments that he and others in the administration have previously made:
The comments pointed to a near-term, hopefully transient escalation that brings the war to end. One topic that wasn’t mentioned was boots on the ground. The lack of a defined exit strategy or timeline, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz was what markets took away, however, and they responded to that as expected overnight. Brent crude jumped and S&P futures fell. After trading around unchanged before the speech, futures are currently down a little less than 2%, moving off the worst levels after another low jobless claims print. The XLE Energy sector ETF is trading higher in the pre-market, unsurprisingly, while Tech, Comm Services, Discretionary and Industrials are leading to the downside.
Global yields are backing up (UK +10bp, Germany/Japan ~5bp) with the rise in oil fanning inflation concerns, including Treasuries up 2-3bp. The USD Dollar Index is moving back up to ~100.
Brent crude (+8%) jumped from $100 to $105 last night, and extending higher throughout the early morning. US Nat gas in marginally higher while Dutch TTF is up 8%. Precious metals are selling off, similar to the beginning of the war as yields move higher. Gold is trying to hold its 100d ma ~$4640. Crypto is selling off as well, with Bitcoin down 3% and Ether -6%, trying to hold $2k.
European markets are down 1-2%, with the UK outperforming, down less than 1%, as energy names make up a larger share of the market (~3x the S&P 500). A push to reset the UK-EU relationship is gaining momentum in the wake of the Iran conflict. Asian equities set the pace for today’s trading. The Nikkei opened higher following Wednesday’s US gains but weakened during the speech, ending over 2% lower. The yen turned lower against the Dollar, heading back towards the 160 line in the sand, and a 10y JGB auction was weak. China finished lower as well, though Shanghai and Hang Seng fared relatively better (down less than 1%). Hong Kong will be closed until Wednesday and mainland markets will be closed Monday. South Korea was among the hardest hit in the region, down 4%.
Earnings:
Economic Data:
US:
Yes, it’s been one year since President Trump’s Rose Garden event where he unveiled his giant tariff (not tarot) cards displaying nosebleed rates on nations around the world. We’ve come so far! With all the chaos, and war and partisanship and fill-in-the-blank-pocolypses we’ve been writing about, it was an awesome moment yesterday watching with my family as Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen fired up the giant, earth shaking SLS rocket and began their journey to fly around the moon, returning for the first time in over 50 years. Felt great to be just as excited as my kids, and it was a hell of a way for NASA to kickstart the next chapter of space exploration. We’re here for all of it.
Back to the markets. Yesterday US equities started Q2 by extending Tuesday’s rally on more hope of an approaching the exit ramp in Iran. However, the totality of comments and headlines throughout the day once again produced more of a mixed message, cutting into the best gains earlier in the day. Quick, important side note- markets are closed tomorrow but the monthly jobs report will be published, so we could see elevated volatility as investors figure out how much risk they want to hold over a long weekend.
President Trump addressed the nation last night and largely kept to earlier comments that he and others in the administration have previously made:
- Core military objectives have been met
- Iran’s leadership and offensive capabilities have been decimated
- The US is very close to finishing the job
- Hormuz will reopen “naturally” and other nations need to step in and take the lead there
- Iran will be hit very hard over the next 2-3 weeks, with power plants targeted if no deal is reached
The comments pointed to a near-term, hopefully transient escalation that brings the war to end. One topic that wasn’t mentioned was boots on the ground. The lack of a defined exit strategy or timeline, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz was what markets took away, however, and they responded to that as expected overnight. Brent crude jumped and S&P futures fell. After trading around unchanged before the speech, futures are currently down a little less than 2%, moving off the worst levels after another low jobless claims print. The XLE Energy sector ETF is trading higher in the pre-market, unsurprisingly, while Tech, Comm Services, Discretionary and Industrials are leading to the downside.
Global yields are backing up (UK +10bp, Germany/Japan ~5bp) with the rise in oil fanning inflation concerns, including Treasuries up 2-3bp. The USD Dollar Index is moving back up to ~100.
- US 2yr +2bps to 3.83%, 5yr +2bps to 3.98%, 10yr +3bps to 4.35%, 30yr +3bps to 4.93%
- USD index: +$0.49 to $99.95
Brent crude (+8%) jumped from $100 to $105 last night, and extending higher throughout the early morning. US Nat gas in marginally higher while Dutch TTF is up 8%. Precious metals are selling off, similar to the beginning of the war as yields move higher. Gold is trying to hold its 100d ma ~$4640. Crypto is selling off as well, with Bitcoin down 3% and Ether -6%, trying to hold $2k.
European markets are down 1-2%, with the UK outperforming, down less than 1%, as energy names make up a larger share of the market (~3x the S&P 500). A push to reset the UK-EU relationship is gaining momentum in the wake of the Iran conflict. Asian equities set the pace for today’s trading. The Nikkei opened higher following Wednesday’s US gains but weakened during the speech, ending over 2% lower. The yen turned lower against the Dollar, heading back towards the 160 line in the sand, and a 10y JGB auction was weak. China finished lower as well, though Shanghai and Hang Seng fared relatively better (down less than 1%). Hong Kong will be closed until Wednesday and mainland markets will be closed Monday. South Korea was among the hardest hit in the region, down 4%.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Wed): FC, PENG
- Pre-Market: LNN
- After-Market: None
Economic Data:
US:
- Jobless Claims: 202k vs 212k cons, prior 211k
- Continuing Claims: 1841k vs 1840k cons, prior 1816k
- Trade Balance: $-57.3B vs $-59.2B cons, prior $-54.5B
- Exports: $314.8B vs prior $302.1B
- Imports: $372.1B vs prior $356.6B
- 10:30am EIA Nat Gas Inventories
- 11:00am Fed Logan speech
- 1:00pm Rig Count
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
- S. Korea CPI (March) m.m / y.y: 0.3% / 2.2% vs 0.6% / 2.4% cons, prior 0.3% / 2.0%
- Australia Trade Balance: A$5.686B vs A$2.6B cons, prior A$2.258B
- India Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 vs flash 53.8
- Italy Retail Sales m.m: 0.0% vs 0.4% cons, prior 0.6%
- Canada Trade Balance: C$-2.3B vs C$-2.3B cons, prior C$-3.65B
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