STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 4/21/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 49,217 (-226), S&P 500 7,074 (-35), Russell 2000 2,774 (-19), NYSE FANG+ 7,914 (+34), ICE Brent Crude $98.34/barrel (+$2.86), Gold $4,715/oz (-$114), Bitcoin ~75.5k (-552)
- Flight 67 to Islamabad has been delayed
- The back and forth continues
- Equities lower, oil, yields higher
- Warsh Senate hearing
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 526: Global X ETFs Pedro Palandrani on the Global X NYSE 100 ETF & NYSE 100 Index
- ETF Central: Capital Group Head of Product Holly Framsted
- NYSE Research Insights: NYSE Closing Auction Residual Imbalances
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday we came out of the weekend with the ceasefire on shaky ground and significant uncertainty as to whether the next round of negotiations would even take place. Oil prices moved higher and futures opened modestly lower. However, the pullback was shallow, especially given the recent historic rally. Markets ended the day mixed. The equal weight S&P 500 and small/mid cap indices closed up between 0.3% - 0.6% while the market cap weighted S&P 500 fell 0.2%. The NYSE 100 broke its winning streak at 13 sessions, pulling back slightly after a 20% rally. Last night the Denver Nuggets followed that up by ending their own 13-game winning streak, and the Knicks one-game winning streak also came crashing to an end.
The fog of uncertainty continues to hang over the Iran conflict, but President Trump appeared on CNBC before the Open to address some of it. Around his comments on the sheetrock (upset they used it) and insulation (there is none) usage in the Federal Reserve’s ongoing renovation, the President said he doesn’t want to extend the ceasefire and that the military is ready to go, though he expects to make a “great deal”. He also said that the captured Iranian ship had “gifts from China. I thought I had an understanding with Xi”.
US equities opened modestly higher as the pace of earnings picked up from yesterday and investors digested solid Retail Sales data. Equities began to come in around gloomy updates from trading and shipping giants Maersk and Trafigura. Maersk issued a Middle East Operations Update saying “transit through the Strait should be avoided” and Trafigura’s CEO said it has nine ships stuck in the waterway. Equities fell further after Pakistan said they were still awaiting Iran’s confirmation to attend peace meetings, and VP Vance was confirmed to have not left for the meetings. Then came the headlines that the process is paused with Iran’s leadership divided, followed by a lot more that didn't add any clarity.
The S&P 500 fell below 7100 but is bouncing off its lows. Brent crude rallied from $95 to $100 but is pulling back from that level. The S&P equal-weight is around inline while small caps are lagging a bit.
Energy is leading on oil’s reversal higher. Real Estate and Utilities are down over 1% as yields back up. Industrials are lagging as well with defense and aerospace names getting hit in particular following earnings from GE and NOC, along with airlines. The Materials sector is also down as chemicals names trade lower and gold/copper miners fall alongside the metals.
Tech is around unchanged. The ICE Semis Index and IGV software ETF are both higher. Apple was trading only slightly lower on the official announcement that that CEO Tim Cook would be succeeded by John Ternus- a well-telegraphed move- but weakened a bit further, weighing on the sector (same with NVDA).
Discretionary and Staples are modestly outperforming and were neck-and-neck with each other. Homebuilders are riding D.R. Horton’s earnings move higher. Weakness in Travel and Leisure names are offsetting the pockets of strength elsewhere. Amazon is up 2% after agreeing to invest up to $25B in Anthropic, who in turn committed to spending >$100B on AWS technology over the next 10yrs. President Trump also said he met with the company and a deal could be made related to the supply-chain risk designation. In Healthcare, UNH results were well-received, propelling the managed care group higher. However, pharma shares, especially LLY and NVO are seeing some pressure following measured commentary from several managed care companies on Medicare’s GLP-1 focused BALANCE program, as well as Amazon’s new GLP-1 program.
Broadly speaking earnings results looked solid today. Continuing with the early general trend. The consistent theme especially within industrial companies is that despite Q1 beats guidance is being left unchanged with management teams calling out caution given the current geopolitical uncertainty.
The other significant event today was Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing. Amidst the usual grandstanding, the Fed chair nominee said President Trump did not make him promise to cut rates. He also discussed overhauling various Fed protocols and measurements, including inflation methodologies and said of inflation, “the trajectory is improving but there’s more work to do.”
Treasury yields are up across the curve, taking a step up following the solid Retail Sales data. A sharp move higher in UK yields didn’t spill over much into US markets.
- US 2yr +5bps to 3.78%, 5yr +5bps to 3.91%, 10yr +4bps to 4.29%, 30yr +2bps to 4.90%
- USD index: +$0.34 to $98.25
We noted ICE Brent’s move higher above, though its off its highs. WTI futures roll today. Precious metals are under some selling pressure. Gold’s decline picked up steam after the Open and during Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing. Metals are mixed with both gold and silver modestly lower. Ag is also mostly higher. Crypto has pulled back from the overnight highs with Bitcoin hovering ~$76k and Ethereum ~$2.3k.
Major European indexes were down ~1%, ending at their lows of the day. The future expectations indexes in the EU and German ZEW surveys came in well below estimates. Yields in the UK jumped, including a ~20bp move in 10y gilt amidst the continued political uncertainty and after the unemployment rate fell 4.9% from 5.2%. Markets in Asia were higher overnight with tech heavy indices outperforming. Reuters is reporting that the BOJ is likely to leave rates unchanged next week given the move higher in energy prices but that it could be a close call.
Earnings:
- Pre-Market: CBSH, DGX, DHI, DHR, EFX, GE, GPC, HAL, MMM, MSCI, NOC, NTRS, RTX, SYF, TSCO, UNH, VMI
- After-Market: ADC, CALX, CB, COF, EQT, EWBC, HWC, IBKR, ISRG, MANH, MCRI, OZK, PEGA, RRC, SON, UAL, WAL, WRB, WRFD
- Pre-Market (Wed): BA, BKU, BSX, CME, DCOM, ELV, GEV, MAS, MCO, MHO, NVR, ONB, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, TMHC, TNL, VRT, WAB
Economic Data:
US:
- ADP Employment: 54.75k vs prior 39k
- Retail Sales m/m: 1.7% vs. 1.4% cons., prior revised to 0.7% from 0.6%
- Ex Autos: 1.9% vs. 1.4% cons., prior revised to 0.7% from 0.5%
- Control Group: 0.7% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.5%
- Pending Home Sales m.m: 1.5% vs 0.1% cons, prior 2.5%
- Kevin Warsh Confirmation Hearing
- Fed Speakers: Waller (2:30pm)
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
Global:
- UK Employment: 25k prior 84k
- UK Unemployment Rate: 4.9% vs. 5.2% cons., prior 5.2%
- EU ZEW Expectations Index: -20.4 vs. -3.6 cons., prior -8.5
- Germany ZEW Expectations Index: -17.2 vs. -5 cons., prior -0.5
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 4/21/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Coming out of the weekend where the ceasefire looked to be on shaky ground and there was uncertainty as to whether the next round of negotiations would take even take place, oil prices moved higher and futures opened modestly lower. However, the pullback was quite shallow especially in the context of the recent historic rally. Markets were mixed by the end of the day. The equal weight S&P 500 and small/mid cap indices closed up between 0.3% - 0.6% while the market cap weighted S&P 500 fell 0.2%. The NYSE 100 broke its winning streak at 13 sessions pulling back slightly after a 20% rally (the Denver Nuggets 13-game winning streak also came to an end last night).
The Iran negotiation uncertainty remains but futures have been pointing to a higher open throughout the morning. It is busy morning of earnings, economic data and an appearance by President Trump on CNBC. President Trump said he doesn’t want to extend the ceasefire and that the military is ready to go. He also said that the captured Iranian ship had “gifts from China. I thought I had an understanding with Xi”. Futures did pull back modestly from the highs during his interview while oil prices have moved back towards unchanged after pulling back overnight. As that interview started retail sales came in well ahead of estimates along with positive revisions which has pushed yields at the front end up a couple of bps.
Broadly speaking the earnings results look pretty solid. The consistent theme especially within industrial companies is that despite Q1 beats guidance is being left unchanged with management teams calling out caution given the current geopolitical uncertainty. In tech, Apple is trading a touch lower after officially announcing that CEO Tim Cook would be succeeded by John Ternus, this has been telegraphed in the press for a while now. Amazon is up >2% after agreeing to invest up to $25B in Anthropic who in turn committed to spending >$100B on AWS technology over the next 10yrs. President Trump also said he met with the company and a deal could be made related to the supply-chain risk designation. S&P futures are currently trading up ~0.25% while Dow futures are outperforming up ~0.5% helped by United Health which is up >5% in the pre-market after earnings.
Government Yields
Markets in Asia were higher overnight with tech heavy indices outperforming. Reuters is reporting that the BOJ is likely to leave rates unchanged next week given the move higher in energy prices but that it could be a close call. Markets in Europe are mixed. The ZEW surveys in the EU and Germany came in well below expectations. Yields in the UK are moving higher (2yr +9bps, 10yr +24bps) amidst the continued political uncertainty related to PM Starmer and after the unemployment rate fell 4.9% from 5.2%.
ICE Brent continues to trade ~$95, (keep in mind WTI futures roll today). Overseas natural gas prices are modestly higher. Metals are mixed with both gold and silver modestly lower. Ag is also mixed after moving higher yesterday. Crypto has pulled back from the overnight highs with Bitcoin hovering ~76k and Ethereum ~2.3k.
After the open pending home sales will be released and the Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings start at 10:00.
Earnings:
After-Market: AGNC, ALK, R, STLD, WTFC, ZION
Pre-Market (Tues): CBSH, DGX, DHI, DHR, EFX, GE, GPC, HAL, MMM, MSCI, NOC, NTRS, RTX, SYF, TSCO, UNH, VMI
After-Market (Tues): ADC, CALX, CB, COF, EQT, EWBC, HWC, IBKR, ISRG, MANH, MCRI, OZK, PEGA, RRC, SON, UAL, WAL, WRB, WRFD
Economic Data:
US:
Coming out of the weekend where the ceasefire looked to be on shaky ground and there was uncertainty as to whether the next round of negotiations would take even take place, oil prices moved higher and futures opened modestly lower. However, the pullback was quite shallow especially in the context of the recent historic rally. Markets were mixed by the end of the day. The equal weight S&P 500 and small/mid cap indices closed up between 0.3% - 0.6% while the market cap weighted S&P 500 fell 0.2%. The NYSE 100 broke its winning streak at 13 sessions pulling back slightly after a 20% rally (the Denver Nuggets 13-game winning streak also came to an end last night).
The Iran negotiation uncertainty remains but futures have been pointing to a higher open throughout the morning. It is busy morning of earnings, economic data and an appearance by President Trump on CNBC. President Trump said he doesn’t want to extend the ceasefire and that the military is ready to go. He also said that the captured Iranian ship had “gifts from China. I thought I had an understanding with Xi”. Futures did pull back modestly from the highs during his interview while oil prices have moved back towards unchanged after pulling back overnight. As that interview started retail sales came in well ahead of estimates along with positive revisions which has pushed yields at the front end up a couple of bps.
Broadly speaking the earnings results look pretty solid. The consistent theme especially within industrial companies is that despite Q1 beats guidance is being left unchanged with management teams calling out caution given the current geopolitical uncertainty. In tech, Apple is trading a touch lower after officially announcing that CEO Tim Cook would be succeeded by John Ternus, this has been telegraphed in the press for a while now. Amazon is up >2% after agreeing to invest up to $25B in Anthropic who in turn committed to spending >$100B on AWS technology over the next 10yrs. President Trump also said he met with the company and a deal could be made related to the supply-chain risk designation. S&P futures are currently trading up ~0.25% while Dow futures are outperforming up ~0.5% helped by United Health which is up >5% in the pre-market after earnings.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +3bps to 3.76%, 5yr +3bps to 3.89%, 10yr +2bps to 4.27%, 30yr +0bps to 4.88%
- USD index: +$0.16 to $98.07
Markets in Asia were higher overnight with tech heavy indices outperforming. Reuters is reporting that the BOJ is likely to leave rates unchanged next week given the move higher in energy prices but that it could be a close call. Markets in Europe are mixed. The ZEW surveys in the EU and Germany came in well below expectations. Yields in the UK are moving higher (2yr +9bps, 10yr +24bps) amidst the continued political uncertainty related to PM Starmer and after the unemployment rate fell 4.9% from 5.2%.
ICE Brent continues to trade ~$95, (keep in mind WTI futures roll today). Overseas natural gas prices are modestly higher. Metals are mixed with both gold and silver modestly lower. Ag is also mixed after moving higher yesterday. Crypto has pulled back from the overnight highs with Bitcoin hovering ~76k and Ethereum ~2.3k.
After the open pending home sales will be released and the Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings start at 10:00.
Earnings:
After-Market: AGNC, ALK, R, STLD, WTFC, ZION
Pre-Market (Tues): CBSH, DGX, DHI, DHR, EFX, GE, GPC, HAL, MMM, MSCI, NOC, NTRS, RTX, SYF, TSCO, UNH, VMI
After-Market (Tues): ADC, CALX, CB, COF, EQT, EWBC, HWC, IBKR, ISRG, MANH, MCRI, OZK, PEGA, RRC, SON, UAL, WAL, WRB, WRFD
Economic Data:
US:
- ADP Employment: prior 39k
- Retail Sales: 1.7% vs. 1.4% cons., prior revise 0.7% from 0.6%
- Ex Autos: 1.9% vs. 1.4% cons., prior revised 0.7% from 0.5%
- Control Group: 0.7% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.5%
- 10:00 Pending Home Sales
- 10:00 Kevin Warsh Confirmation Hearing
- 2:30 Fed Waller
- 4:30 API Oil Inventories
- UK Employment: 25k prior 84k
- UK Unemployment Rate: 4.9% vs. 5.2% cons., prior 5.2%
- EU ZEW Index: -20.4 vs. -3.6 cons., prior -8.5
- Germany ZEW Index: -72.2 vs. -5 cons., prior -0.5
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