STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/24/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,303 (-208), S&P 500 7,697 (-9), Russell 2000 2,829 (-10), NYSE FANG+ 19,268 (+49), ICE Brent Crude $106.98/barrel (+$3.90), Gold $4,298/oz (-$20), Bitcoin ~84.2k (-221)
- S&P slightly lower, most sectors down
- Rates, oil moving around; Hormuz deal, maybe?
- Trump-Xi meeting today
- Force majeure coming to a data center near you
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 556: Blue Yonder CSO Saskia van Gendt on Sustainability as a Supply Chain Superpower
- ETF Central: ETF Focus Partners Wealth Senior Wealth Advisor Adam Yofan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rise 8.7% Annually, but Rate of Growth Is Sharply Slowing
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The focus yesterday was on the big backup in global rates, coinciding with strong PMI data and a rally in crude following five straight days of declines. That action had equities under pressure as the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, equal-weight 0.7% and Russell 2000 1.8%. Yields surged over 10bp across the curve and included an ugly 5-year auction, and brent rose 4%. 7800 has been the top of the range the S&P has been trading in since early August, and the index has once again turned back after approaching the level. Energy was the only sector up while the rate/oil sensitive Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary lagged. Comm Services was the worst performer as GOOG fell over 3%. There wasn’t much of a bounce in the stocks that were hit on Tuesday from the Meta Muse-triggered sell-off.
Geopolitics remain in focus today with President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi the key event. A dinner tonight will include several US business leaders. Earlier, the US and China agreed to extend the trade truce two months, to January 10. Oil continued to bounce and futures drifted lower this morning, before Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent the developer of its giant Project Jupiter data center (an OWL affiliate) a force majeure notice to delay payments if the data center is not completed on time (2028), though Oracle said the project remained on time. The news is pressuring the group and related infrastructure names: ORCL, OWL and BE BE are down ~4%. The news didn’t hit futures too much overall, but it shined the spotlight back on the risks to the data center buildout and the AI narrative overall.
The S&P opened down 0.5% but that has basically marked the low of the day. The general consensus was that a breakthrough in the Iran situation wasn't imminent, but around noon Reuters reported the US and Iran were discussing a phased deal to reopen Hormuz. That had the expected effect: the S&P jumped into positive territory, to over 7700, as oil and rates fell on the news. Prices have moved back a little bit since then. The S&P is slightly lower with the equal-weight and Russell 2000 lagging modestly.
Comm Services is the leading sector. META is up 3% following CEO Zuckerberg's keynote last night and the company’s Connect conference, which comes on the heels of the Meta Muse fervor of the past few days. GOOG is up as well, clawing back a portion of yesterday's weakness, and most media names are higher.
Healthcare and Energy are modestly higher. LLY is up over 3% following FDA approval of a new insulin while a patent case for its retatrutide weight loss drug is heard in court. Postiive takeaways from CRL's guidance update has the stock higher and helping the tools and CRO space. Energy is also a leader with oil higher through some volatility. The other sectors are flat to lower. Materials is lagging with most components down including the Ag-focused stocks like MOS, CF and NTR.
It was a busy macro/data data. Jobless claims were uneventful. New Home sales of 684k picked up from last month and beat estimates. The KC Fed Manufacturing survey rose from last month, while the Expectations survey was a tick lower. New Orders improved while backlogs and prices paid/received increased as well.
This afternoon's 7y auction was better than yesterday's awfulness but still tailed by 0.7bp. The Treasury will buy back up to $6b in today's operation. The Fed's survey of Senior Credit officers will be out later today as well.
Philly Fed President Anna Paulson (voter) spoke this morning at the bank's Fintech Conference. She discussed her support of the latest rate hike, and said modest further tightening may be warranted if conditions evolve as she expects. She noted "it was clear that inflation risks were growing...growth has been solid, perhaps even strengthening somewhat. And the labor market is holding steady. Inflation, meanwhile, remains stubbornly elevated."
Cleveland Fed President Hammack also spoke today, saying inflation risk is tilted to the upside while its outlook remains highly uncertain. "The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down."
The treasury curve had twist-steepened earlier as the 2y was down ~3bp earlier while the 10/30y rose 2-3bp. However as oil came back off its lows the 2y is now flat and the long-end is up ~5bp. The US Dollar index is higher again as the yen continues to weaken back towards ¥160.
- US 2yr -0bps to 4.90%, 5yr +2bps to 5.03%, 10yr +4bps to 5.16%, 30yr +5bps to 5.45%
- USD index: +$0.41 to $101.22
Brent crude is higher again today. It had reached as high as $108 before the Iran news sent it lower, to $104, though it bounced from there. There was some positive supply news, with reports of strong Saudi crude loadings and sale of 100m barrels to Asian buyers. US natural gas is up sharply on reports of a pipeline issue in West Virginia, with European gas higher as well. Precious metals are modestly lower after falling yesterday. Gold has fallen below its 50d ma ~$4350. Crypto is slightly lower. Bitcoin and ETH have erased most of their earlier weakness. Ag is modestly lower as well.
Global markets are mostly lower. Japan bucked the trend as it re-opened from holiday closing up nearly 1% with strength in technology stocks. Softbank issued ~$11B of debt to fund AI initiative with yields ranging between 7.125% -9.75%. Manufacturing and services Flash PMIs moderated more than expected but remained >50. Ahead of the President Trump / Xi summit local markets in China/Hong Kong closed lower. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the trade truce between the two countries would be extended for two months until January 10th. South Korea was closed. India’s Sensex was down >1.5% breaking below its 200d ma. Financials led to the downside after insurance regulators proposed capping commissions and distribution payouts. That being said, weakness was broad-based. European indices ended lower. German Ifo surveys came in ahead of expectations. The FTSE 100 is outperforming trading modestly higher helped by strength in staples, energy and utilities. There is a steepening of the yield curve across the region similar to Treasuries. Italy continues to be a focal point with 10/30yr yields up again.
Earnings:
- After-Market: COST, SCHL
- None
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 197k vs. 201k cons, prior 198k
- Continuing Claims: 1.72ml vs. 1.75ml cons, prior 1.72ml
- New Home Sales: 684k vs 620k cons, prior 607k
- EIA Natural gas inventories: 53Bcf vs 53Bcf cons, prior 44Bcf
- KC Fed Manufacturing: 14 vs prior 10
- 2:00pm Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing (SCOOS)
Global:
- Japan flash Manufacturing PMI: 54.1 vs 55.0 cons, prior 54.9
- Flash Services: 51.6 vs prior 52.5
- Australia employment: -6.3k prior 14.9k
- Australia Unemployment Rate: 4.6% vs. 4.5% cons., prior 4.5%
- German Ifo Current Conditions / Expectations: 89.5 / 90.4 vs. 89 / 89.3 cons., prior 88.5 / 89.0
- 3:00pm Mexico Rate Decision
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo & Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 9/24/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday was all about a big backup in global rates, coinciding with strong PMI data and a rally in crude following five straight days of declines. Those moves had equities under pressure as the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, equal-weight 0.7% and Russell 2000 1.8%. 7800 has proved to be an area of overhead resistance and the S&P has turned back after approaching the level on Tuesday. Yields surged over 10bp across the curve and included an ugly 5-year auction, and brent rose 4%. Energy was the only sector up while the rate/oil sensitive Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary lagged. Comm Services was the worst performer as GOOG fell over 3%. There wasn’t much of a bounce in the stocks that were hit on Tuesday from the Meta Muse-triggered sell-off.
Geopolitics remain in focus with the UNGA continuing and President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi today. A breakthrough with Iran doesn’t seem imminent, but the US and China agreed to extend the trade truce two months, to January 10. US futures drifted lower overnight with oil rising, before Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent the developer of its giant Project Jupiter data center (an OWL affiliate) a force majeure notice to delay payments if the data center is not completed on time (2028). An Oracle spokesperson said the project remains on time. It seems like this is more of a pre-emptive move to cover risks, but the news is pressuring the group and related infrastructure names: ORCL and BE down ~5% pre-market, VRT -3%, OWL -3%. The news didn’t hit futures too much as the S&P is around the levels before the news. META made several product announcements and Zuckerberg had his keynote last night at the company’s Connect conference but it doesn’t look like there was anything too significant (-1% pre-market).
Jobless claims were uneventful. New Home sales are out later today along with KC Fed Manufacturing survey and a 7y auction at 1pm should be interesting given the terrible 5y auction yesterday. The Treasury buyback operation and survey of Senior Credit officers will be later today as well. Treasuries are bull-steepening with the 2y down 6bp and 10/30y flatish. The US Dollar index is higher again as the yen continues to weaken back towards ¥160.
Global markets are mostly lower. Japan bucked the trend as it re-opened from holiday closing up nearly 1% with strength in technology stocks. Softbank issued ~$11B of debt to fund AI initiative with yields ranging between 7.125% -9.75%. Manufacturing and services Flash PMIs moderated more than expected but did remain in expansionary territory. Ahead of the President Trump/Xi summit local markets in China/Hong Kong closed lower. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the trade truce between the two countries would be extended for two months until January 10th. South Korea was closed. India’s Sensex was down >1.5% breaking below its 200d ma. Financials led to the downside after insurance regulators proposed capping commissions and distribution payouts. That being said, weakness was broad-based. European indices are mostly lower but off the worst levels. German Ifo surveys came in ahead of expectations. The FTSE 100 is outperforming trading modestly higher helped by strength in staples, energy and utilities. There is a steepening of the yield curve across the region similar to Treasuries. Italy continues to be a focal point with 10/30yr yields up again.
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): FUL, SFIX
Pre-Market: BB, DRI, SNX
After-Market: COST, SCHL
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday was all about a big backup in global rates, coinciding with strong PMI data and a rally in crude following five straight days of declines. Those moves had equities under pressure as the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, equal-weight 0.7% and Russell 2000 1.8%. 7800 has proved to be an area of overhead resistance and the S&P has turned back after approaching the level on Tuesday. Yields surged over 10bp across the curve and included an ugly 5-year auction, and brent rose 4%. Energy was the only sector up while the rate/oil sensitive Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary lagged. Comm Services was the worst performer as GOOG fell over 3%. There wasn’t much of a bounce in the stocks that were hit on Tuesday from the Meta Muse-triggered sell-off.
Geopolitics remain in focus with the UNGA continuing and President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi today. A breakthrough with Iran doesn’t seem imminent, but the US and China agreed to extend the trade truce two months, to January 10. US futures drifted lower overnight with oil rising, before Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent the developer of its giant Project Jupiter data center (an OWL affiliate) a force majeure notice to delay payments if the data center is not completed on time (2028). An Oracle spokesperson said the project remains on time. It seems like this is more of a pre-emptive move to cover risks, but the news is pressuring the group and related infrastructure names: ORCL and BE down ~5% pre-market, VRT -3%, OWL -3%. The news didn’t hit futures too much as the S&P is around the levels before the news. META made several product announcements and Zuckerberg had his keynote last night at the company’s Connect conference but it doesn’t look like there was anything too significant (-1% pre-market).
Jobless claims were uneventful. New Home sales are out later today along with KC Fed Manufacturing survey and a 7y auction at 1pm should be interesting given the terrible 5y auction yesterday. The Treasury buyback operation and survey of Senior Credit officers will be later today as well. Treasuries are bull-steepening with the 2y down 6bp and 10/30y flatish. The US Dollar index is higher again as the yen continues to weaken back towards ¥160.
- US 2yr -6bps to 4.85%, 5yr -4bps to 4.97%, 10yr -1bps to 5.10%, 30yr +1bps to 5.41%
- USD index: +$0.41 to $101.22
Global markets are mostly lower. Japan bucked the trend as it re-opened from holiday closing up nearly 1% with strength in technology stocks. Softbank issued ~$11B of debt to fund AI initiative with yields ranging between 7.125% -9.75%. Manufacturing and services Flash PMIs moderated more than expected but did remain in expansionary territory. Ahead of the President Trump/Xi summit local markets in China/Hong Kong closed lower. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the trade truce between the two countries would be extended for two months until January 10th. South Korea was closed. India’s Sensex was down >1.5% breaking below its 200d ma. Financials led to the downside after insurance regulators proposed capping commissions and distribution payouts. That being said, weakness was broad-based. European indices are mostly lower but off the worst levels. German Ifo surveys came in ahead of expectations. The FTSE 100 is outperforming trading modestly higher helped by strength in staples, energy and utilities. There is a steepening of the yield curve across the region similar to Treasuries. Italy continues to be a focal point with 10/30yr yields up again.
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): FUL, SFIX
Pre-Market: BB, DRI, SNX
After-Market: COST, SCHL
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 197 vs. 201k cons, prior 196k
- Continuing Claims: 1.72ml vs. 1.75ml cons, prior 1.73ml
- 10:00am New Home Sales
- 10:10am Fed Paulson
- 10:30am Natty Gas
- 11:00am KC Fed Manufacturing
- 1:00am $44B 7yr Auction
- ~1:40pm Treasury Buyback
- 2:00pm Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing (SCOOS)
- Japan Manufacturing/Services PMI: 54.1/51.6 prior 54.9/52.5
- Australia employment: -6.3k prior 14.9k
- Australia Unemployment Rate: 4.6% vs. 4.5% cons., prior 4.5%
- German Ifo Current Conditions/Expectations: 89.5/90.4 vs. 89/89.3 cons., prior 88.5/89
- 3:00pm Mexico Rate Decision
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