STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/27/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 53,660 (+196), S&P 500 7,737 (+61), Russell 2000 3,017 (+12), NYSE FANG+ 18,657 (+260), ICE Brent Crude $88.90/barrel (+$1.06), Gold $4,667/oz (+$13), Bitcoin ~80.3k (+1583)
- Tech sends markets higher
- Jensen delivers & Benioff declares SaaS-pocalypse over
- Retail earnings solid but stocks mostly lower
- The focus shifts to Jackson Hole, the long weekend and NCAAF
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Inside the ICE House Episode 550: Third Coast Bank CEO Bart Caraway on Putting People and Purpose Into Banking
- ETF Central: ETF Central: MarketGrader Founder & CEO Carlos Diez
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improve
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday, most major US indices closed on either side of unchanged ahead of a big evening of tech earnings. Energy, Industrials and Utilities led. Comm Services, Discretionary and Healthcare lagged. Geopolitical news flow pushed oil markets around. Optimism from Pakistan and reports of an agreement between Oman and Iran for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz initially moved prices and Treasury yields lower. However, later comments from Vladimir Putin suggested an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict helped reverse oil’s decline. Inflation data in the PCE was broadly inline as was consumer spending though underlying data did not scream “Robust Consumer”. Treasury yields and the USD ended higher weighing on the commodity complex. As we approached the close President Trump signed an executive order banning the purchase, import and installation of certain foreign-built bulk power equipment on the grounds of national security risks. Final rules for its implementation are due within 120 days. Names like GEV saw late-day strength. Politico also reported that the administration is also looking into a new round of semiconductor tariffs, which could extend to laptops, gaming consoles and data center servers.
The tech/AI earnings results were impressive overnight. Tech gains have helped the S&P 500 reclaim 7,700 and the index has continued to grind higher throughout the session currently up just over 0.5%. However, info tech is the only sector in the index trading higher. The equal weight version of the index has recouped most of the initial losses to trade around unchanged. The retail earnings generally looked solid though a lot of the beats were driven by tariff refunds. That being said, Dollar General is the only stock trading meaningfully higher while other companies that reported are in the red. From here the spotlight firmly shifts to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech tomorrow morning. The opening acts are already starting to get the crowd warmed up with their hawkish tunes. However, there is a good chance the crowd will ultimately be disappointed as they are yearning for guidance which has not been his modus operandi. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 61pts to 7,737 (+0.8%), the Dow is up 207pts to 53,671 (+0.4%), while the Russell 2k is up 10pts to 3,016 (+0.3%).
Jumping into the tech earnings……NVDA is trading up >5%, which would break a string of 4 consecutive declines on the day after it reports. It had another stellar quarter and guided to 70% FY27 revenue growth as Rubin ramps up, ahead of street estimates that were ~45%. The company suggested it would be even higher if they were not supply constrained. The company also announced that Amazon will deploy 2ml GPU’s across its AWS infrastructure in 2027/2028, helping to quiet some of the concerns that hyperscalers are moving away from the company. The company is also reportedly buying Hugging Face for $13B, the same company that OpenAI’s rouge agents attacked a few weeks ago. AI cyber threats drove cybersecurity provider CRWD’s impressive results. CRM raised revenue guidance on record orders, announced a new program with Anthropic called Claudeforce and saw Agentforce see very strong demand. Both stocks are up >15% pulling the software sector higher. Thus far it is a rare day where software and chips both trade in the green. That being said, the initial chip and memory strength, outside of Nvidia, has faded a bit since the open. HP is trading lower despite beating estimates, but has recouped much of the initial declines. Analysts are highlight weakening PC demand and memory related margin pressures.
In many ways it just feels like the tech strength is sucking the air out of the rest of the market. Defensive sectors are underperforming. Utilities and staples are down ~1%. Within staples, Hormel is under pressure despite beating on the bottom line as they cut revenue guidance citing some international and retail weakness. Consumer discretionary is also down nearly 1% with broad based weakness. Auto-related stocks are outperforming. Pretty much every other sector is down 0.4% -0.8%.
This morning’s initial and continuing claims both came in slightly better than expected. The trade deficit increased to ~$119B higher than estimates. Treasury yields are up ~1bps. The USD index has pulled back from the overnight highs trading slightly lower. There is a 7yr auction this afternoon.
- US 2yr +1bps to 4.22%, 5yr +2bps to 4.39%, 10yr +2bps to 4.67%, 30yr +1bps to 5.19%
- USD index: -$0.03 to $99.06
Overnight Asia was mixed despite the strong US tech earnings. Japan ended slightly lower. Memory giants Kioxia and Samsung plan to invest $31B to expand memory capacity in the country, which may explain some of the weakness in memory stocks today. Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.5%. The central bank raised rates by 25bp, which was the slightly consensus view. The Philippines also raised its rates. Chinese indices were mostly higher though the Hang Seng fell. Industrial profits missed expectations. Z.AI jumped 13% after releasing a new AI model that runs exclusively on Chinese chips. Meanwhile DeepSeek could see an IPO value it at $74B according to reports. Most major indices in Europe closed near session lows. Germany’s DAX bucked the trend helped by tech strength. France unperformed with pretty broad-based weakness though financials were particularly weak. There are growing concerns around deficits ahead of ahead of elections with far-left candidates starting to move up in the poles.
Crude is modestly higher. There wasn’t much new in the Iran situation, but the NYT is reporting that Saudi Arabia could renew its war against Yemen’s Houthis after ongoing attacks on Saudi shipping. Meanwhile the Russian-Ukraine conflict looks like its re-escalating which is helping push natural gas prices higher. Metals have recouped early losses as the USD has pulled back. Ag is mixed but holding WTD gains.. Crypto is moving modestly higher with Bitcoin and Ethereum both trying to break above key round numbers, 80k and 2,500 respectively.
There are a couple of tech and retail earnings after the close that will get some attention before Chair Warsh takes center stage. There is some global inflation data overnight and the BLS will release its annual payrolls revisions. NCAA Football also kicks off this evening, its FCS and Division 2 but who’s counting.
Earnings:
After-Market: AFRM, ADSK, GAP, IREN, MRVL, PD, RBRK, S, ULTA, WDAY
Economic Data:
US:
- Jackson Hole Symposium
- Initial Claims: 203k vs 208K cons, prior 206K
- Continuing claims: 1788k vs 1790K cons, prior 1799K
- Trade Balance: -$118.8B vs. -$100B cons., prior -$101.4B
- 1:00pm 7y auction
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
Global:
- China Industrial Profits July (y.y): 11.2% vs prior 15.1%
- Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence: -26.6 vs -29.6 cons, prior -29.6
- France PPI y.y: 3.4% vs prior 2.8%
- France Unemployment Claims: 21.5k vs prior 5.9k
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/27/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday, most major US indices closed on either side of unchanged ahead of a big evening of tech earnings. Energy, Industrials and Utilities led. Comm Services, Discretionary and Healthcare lagged. Geopolitical news flow pushed oil markets around. Optimism from Pakistan and reports of an agreement between Oman and Iran for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz initially moved prices and Treasury yields lower. However, later comments from Vladimir Putin suggested an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict helped reverse oil’s decline. Inflation data in the PCE was broadly inline as was consumer spending though underlying data did not scream “Robust Consumer”. Treasury yields ended higher and the USD ended higher weighing on the commodity complex. As we approached the close President Trump signed an executive order banning the purchase, import and installation of certain foreign-built bulk power equipment on the grounds of national security risks. Final rules for its implementation are due within 120 days. Names like GEV saw late-day strength. Politico reported that the administration is also looking into a new round of semiconductor tariffs, which could extend to laptops, gaming consoles and data center servers.
The tech/AI earnings results were impressive. NVDA is trading up >5% in the pre-market, which would break a string of 4 consecutive declines after earnings. It had another stellar quarter and guided to 70% FY27 revenue growth ahead of street estimates that were ~45% with the company suggesting it would be even higher if they were not memory supply constrained. They are also buying Hugging Face for $13B, the same company that OpenAI’s rouge agents attacked a few weeks ago. AI cyber threats drove cybersecurity provider CRWD’s impressive results. CRM raised revenue guidance on record orders, announced a new program with Anthropic called Claudeforce and saw Agentforce see very strong demand. Both stocks are up ~10% so it could be a rare day where chips, memory and software all trade higher. HP is trading lower after results highlighting the impact of higher memory costs. The retail earnings generally look solid though a lot of the beats are driven by tariff refunds. However, Dollar General is the only stock trading meaningfully higher in the pre-market while most others are trading modestly lower (BBY/BURL/DLTR/URBN). S&P futures are up ~0.3% well off the overnight highs while Dow/R2k futures are both slightly lower.
The spotlight firmly shifts to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech tomorrow morning. The opening acts are already starting to get the crowd warmed up. This morning’s initial and continuing claims both came in slightly better than expected. The trade deficit was larger than expected. Treasury yields are near the overnight highs up ~2bps. There is a 7yr auction this afternoon. The USD index is also ticking up slightly.
Asia was mixed despite the strong US tech earnings. Japan ended slightly lower. Memory giants Kioxia and Samsung plan to invest $31B to expand memory capacity in the country. Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.5%. The central bank raised rates by 25bp, which was the slightly consensus view. The Philippines also raised its rates. Chinese indices were mostly higher though the Hang Seng fell. Industrial profits missed expectations. Z.AI jumped 13% after releasing a new AI model that runs exclusively on Chinese chips. Meanwhile DeepSeek could see an IPO value it at $74B according to reports. Most major indices in Europe are modestly lower. Germany’s DAX is outperforming helped by tech strength. France is underperforming with pretty broad-based weakness ahead of elections.
Crude is modestly higher. There wasn’t much new in the Iran situation, but the NYT is reporting that Saudi Arabia could renew its war against Yemen’s Houthis after ongoing attacks on Saudi shipping. Meanwhile the Russian-Ukraine conflict looks like its re-escalating which is helping push natural gas prices higher. The USD strength is weighing on the metals complex. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving modestly higher.
Earnings
After-Market (Wed): A, CRWD, HP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, OOMA, P, CRM, SNPS, URBN, VEEV
Pre-Market: BBY, BBW, BURL, DG, DLTR, HRL, PURR, RY, TD
After-Market: AFRM, ADSK, GAP, IREN, MRVL, PD, RBRK, S, ULTA, WDAY
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday, most major US indices closed on either side of unchanged ahead of a big evening of tech earnings. Energy, Industrials and Utilities led. Comm Services, Discretionary and Healthcare lagged. Geopolitical news flow pushed oil markets around. Optimism from Pakistan and reports of an agreement between Oman and Iran for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz initially moved prices and Treasury yields lower. However, later comments from Vladimir Putin suggested an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict helped reverse oil’s decline. Inflation data in the PCE was broadly inline as was consumer spending though underlying data did not scream “Robust Consumer”. Treasury yields ended higher and the USD ended higher weighing on the commodity complex. As we approached the close President Trump signed an executive order banning the purchase, import and installation of certain foreign-built bulk power equipment on the grounds of national security risks. Final rules for its implementation are due within 120 days. Names like GEV saw late-day strength. Politico reported that the administration is also looking into a new round of semiconductor tariffs, which could extend to laptops, gaming consoles and data center servers.
The tech/AI earnings results were impressive. NVDA is trading up >5% in the pre-market, which would break a string of 4 consecutive declines after earnings. It had another stellar quarter and guided to 70% FY27 revenue growth ahead of street estimates that were ~45% with the company suggesting it would be even higher if they were not memory supply constrained. They are also buying Hugging Face for $13B, the same company that OpenAI’s rouge agents attacked a few weeks ago. AI cyber threats drove cybersecurity provider CRWD’s impressive results. CRM raised revenue guidance on record orders, announced a new program with Anthropic called Claudeforce and saw Agentforce see very strong demand. Both stocks are up ~10% so it could be a rare day where chips, memory and software all trade higher. HP is trading lower after results highlighting the impact of higher memory costs. The retail earnings generally look solid though a lot of the beats are driven by tariff refunds. However, Dollar General is the only stock trading meaningfully higher in the pre-market while most others are trading modestly lower (BBY/BURL/DLTR/URBN). S&P futures are up ~0.3% well off the overnight highs while Dow/R2k futures are both slightly lower.
The spotlight firmly shifts to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech tomorrow morning. The opening acts are already starting to get the crowd warmed up. This morning’s initial and continuing claims both came in slightly better than expected. The trade deficit was larger than expected. Treasury yields are near the overnight highs up ~2bps. There is a 7yr auction this afternoon. The USD index is also ticking up slightly.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.23%, 5yr +2bps to 4.39%, 10yr +2bps to 4.67%, 30yr +2bps to 5.19%
- USD index: +$0.07 to $99.16
Asia was mixed despite the strong US tech earnings. Japan ended slightly lower. Memory giants Kioxia and Samsung plan to invest $31B to expand memory capacity in the country. Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.5%. The central bank raised rates by 25bp, which was the slightly consensus view. The Philippines also raised its rates. Chinese indices were mostly higher though the Hang Seng fell. Industrial profits missed expectations. Z.AI jumped 13% after releasing a new AI model that runs exclusively on Chinese chips. Meanwhile DeepSeek could see an IPO value it at $74B according to reports. Most major indices in Europe are modestly lower. Germany’s DAX is outperforming helped by tech strength. France is underperforming with pretty broad-based weakness ahead of elections.
Crude is modestly higher. There wasn’t much new in the Iran situation, but the NYT is reporting that Saudi Arabia could renew its war against Yemen’s Houthis after ongoing attacks on Saudi shipping. Meanwhile the Russian-Ukraine conflict looks like its re-escalating which is helping push natural gas prices higher. The USD strength is weighing on the metals complex. Ag is mixed. Crypto is moving modestly higher.
Earnings
After-Market (Wed): A, CRWD, HP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, OOMA, P, CRM, SNPS, URBN, VEEV
Pre-Market: BBY, BBW, BURL, DG, DLTR, HRL, PURR, RY, TD
After-Market: AFRM, ADSK, GAP, IREN, MRVL, PD, RBRK, S, ULTA, WDAY
Economic Data:
US:
- Jackson Hole Symposium
- Initial Claims: 203k vs 208K cons, prior 206K
- Continuing claims: 1788k vs 1790K cons, prior 1799K
- Trade Balance: -$118.8B vs. -$100B cons., prior -$101.4B
- 10:30am EIA Nat Gas Inventories
- 11:00am KC Fed Manufacturing Index
- 1:00pm 7y auction
- 4:30pm Fed Balance Sheet
- China Industrial Profits July (y.y): 11.2% vs prior 15.1%
- Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence: -26.6 vs -29.6 cons, prior -29.6
- France PPI y.y: 3.4% vs prior 2.8%
- France Unemployment Claims: 21.5k vs prior 5.9k
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