NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update

DOW 41,698 (+584), S&P 500 5,709 (+78), Russell 2000 2,040 (+51), NYSE FANG+ 12,852 (+190), ICE Brent Crude $62.85/barrel (+$1.73), Gold $3,306/oz (-$86), Bitcoin ~101.3k (+4159)

• Risk-on
• UK-US trade deal. Brilliant!
• Industrials, Materials, Discretionary, Energy leading, Healthcare lagging
• Yields jump  
• Dollar, crude higher, Bitcoin back above $100K
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • Inside the ICE House 468:  AG1 CEO Kat Cole on Health, Wellness, & the Foundational Nutrition Movement
  • Inside the ICE Market StoryLines - 05/02
  • Data Insights: The Early Bird Gets the Worm

MAC Desk Commentary:
It’s a risk-on mentality today with the major US indexes up over 1%, gold down, crude up, Dollar up, Bitcoin up and treasury yields sharply higher, with a side order of a UK-US trade deal. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 78pts to 5,710 (+1.4%), the Dow is up 584pts to 41,697 (+1.4%), while the Russell 2k is up 51pts to 2,040 (+2.5%).

Following yesterday’s news of a China-US trade meeting this weekend and teasing a “major” trade deal last night, President Trump announced the UK deal during a White House press conference late this morning. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer didn’t make the transatlantic trek to join in-person by joined by phone. It’s not a final deal as many details still need to be worked out but among the products/industries mentioned to benefit include ethanol, beef, steel, autos and aluminum.

Equities were at the lows of the day and around unchanged at the start of the press conference but got a burst of strength to move substantially higher. They found yet another gear after Trump said to “go out and buy stocks now”.  

Every sector is up today except for Healthcare. Industrials (Boeing up on UK deal news, Axon +15%  on earnings), Materials (Chemicals), Discretionary (strength across the board) and Energy (crude higher) are atop the leaderboard. Alphabet is rebounding a bit today after it sold off 8% yesterday on commentary from its antitrust case.  Healthcare is lagging with biopharma weaker, though Med Devices and Tools are trading higher.
 
Indexes and Sectors  
Yields are sharply higher by about 10bp up to the 10yr.  The 30yr auction was relatively weak, tailing by 0.7bp and only 55% indirects. The 30yr treasury sold off after the auction to its current levels, up 6bp on the day. The US Dollar Index is up about 1% and back to 100.  Brent crude is up 3%. Gold is off by 2% and Bitcoin is up 4% and back above $100K.
 
Other Asset Classes:

• US 2yr +11bps to 3.89%, 5yr +12bps to 3.99%, 10yr +10bps to 4.37%, 30yr +6bps to 4.83%
• USD index: +$0.98 to $100.42
• Oil prices - ICE Brent: +2.8% to $62.86, WTI: +3.2% to $59.93, Nat Gas: -1.1% to $3.90
• Gold: -2.3% to $3,314.90, Silver: -0.4% to $32.66, Copper: -1.3% to $4.60
• Wheat: -1.0% to $5.24, Corn: -1.1% to $4.44, Soybeans: +0.2% to $10.42, Cotton: -1.2% to $0.67
• VIX: -1.29 to 22.26
• Bitcoin: +4.2% to ~101.3k

The main data release today was the weekly jobless claims, which came in slightly lower than estimates and fell from last month. Continuing claims were down from last week as well, and below consensus. The data fits well with Fed Chair Powell’s commentary yesterday about the strength of the labor market. Productivity fell 0.8% in Q1, though about in line with expectations. It was the first quarterly decline in about 3 years. Unit labor costs rose (Q1) rose 5.7% versus 2.2% last quarter and were above a 5% consensus estimate.

A key strategy in the Fed’s mandate is keeping inflation expectations anchored. In today’s NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, 1yr inflation expectations were unchanged, 3yr ticked higher but 5yr declined. Not surprisingly, inflation uncertainty moved higher for all three time horizons. Speaking of central banks, while the Fed left rates unchanged, the Bank of England cut its rate 25bp as expected, and Riksbank and Norges Bank held, also as expected.


 
Most major European indexes finished higher expect for our new trade partner (UK FTSE -0.3%, around the lows). Autos (Stellantis +5%, Volkswagen +4%), Tech (ASML +4%, Infineon +2.5% on earnings) and Financials saw healthy gains. Shipping giant Maersk was up about 2% after reporting Q1 results, maintaining guidance though broadening the range of global volume estimates from +4%, to -1% to +4% on the increased macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Japan’s Nikkei closed higher China was up as well.
 
Earnings:
Thursday Pre-Market: ABEV, ALE, ALIT, ASPN, ATUS, BKSY, BN, CARS, CCRD, CHH, CIM, CION, CNR, COLD, COP, CTEV, ENOV, EPAM, FUN, GEL, GLP, GTN, HAE, HBI, IBP, INSW, JBI, JMIA, KRP, KVUE, LNC, LNG, LTH, LUCK, Maersk, MDU, MMS, NABL, NCDL, NEUE, NINE, NOMD, OMI, PBH, PLNT, PRM, PRMB, PX, QBTS, QSR, SGI, SMC, SN, SPB, SPH, SRE, STVN, TAP, TGLS, TGNA, TPR, TSQ, USFD, VVV, VYX, WRBY, WWW, YETI, YOU
Thursday After-Market: AGO, AHR, AIV, AMN, AMPX, ARLO, ATGE, BBDC, BILL, BLND, COMP.EQ, DV, EB, EGY, EVC, EVH, FIGS, FRT, GDOT, GMED, GRND, GRNT, GSBD, HCI, HUBS, IFS, INGM, MAIN, MBI, MCK, MP, MSDL, MTUS, NET, NGVC, NNI, NRDY, NUS, OLO, ONTO, OUT, OWLT, PHX, PINS, PKST, POST, PRSU, PSQH, RKT, RNG, SG, SGHC, SOLV, ST, TKO, TOST, TREX, VHI, WOLF, XPOF, YELP, ZIP
Friday Pre-Market: AGM, AMR, AU, BKV, ESNT, KOP, PAR, SLVM, STWD, TIXT, TXNM

Economic Data:

• US:
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 228K vs. 230K cons., prior 241K
    • Continuing Claims: 1897K vs. 1890K cons., prior 1908K
  • Productivity: -0.8% vs. -0.7% cons., prior 1.7%
  • Unit Labor Costs: 5.7% vs. 5.1% cons., prior 2.2%
  • Wholesale Inventories (March) m.m: 0.4% vs. 0.5% cons., prior 0.5%
  • EIA Natural Gas Inventories: 104Bcf vs. 101B consensus, prior 107B
  • NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations 1yr: 3.6% vs. prior 3.6%
    • 3yr: 3.2% vs. 3.0% prior
    • 5yr: 2.7% vs. 2.9% prior
  • 30yr Auction: 4.819% vs. WI 4.812%
• Global
  • Germany Exports (March) m.m: 1.1% vs. 1.0% cons., prior 1.8%
  • German Imports (March) m.m: -1.4% vs. 0.4% cons., prior 0.5%
  • German Industrial Production: 3% vs. 0.8% cons., prior -1.3%
  • Taiwan Exports (April) y.y: 29.9% vs. 16.0% cons., prior 18.6%
  • Taiwan Imports: (April) y.y: 33.0% vs. 18.9% cons., prior 28.8%
  • Mexico Core CPI (April) m/m: 0.49% vs. 0.47% cons., prior 0.43%
    • y.y: 3.93% vs. 3.92 cons., prior 3.64%  
  • Rate Decisions:
    • Riksbank: Hold at 2.25% as expected
    • Norges Bank: Hold at 4.5% as expected
    • BoE: Cut to 4.25% as expected