STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 9/9/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 52,384 (-402), S&P 500 7,638 (-35), Russell 2000 2,926 (-34), NYSE FANG+ 18,574 (+5), ICE Brent Crude $101.33/barrel (+$3.41), Gold $4,445/oz (+$6), Bitcoin ~78.8k (+272)
- Bottom of the range
- Brent back to $100
- Yields higher as buyback not high enough
- Are You Ready For Some Football!!!
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 553: Brixmor CEO Brian Finnegan on the Symbiotic Bond Between Retail and Community
- ETF Central: ETF Focus Partners Wealth Senior Wealth Advisor Adam Yofan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: First Look - Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improve
- Market Storylines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Coming out of the holiday weekend equities were in a bit of a foul mood. A pickup in kinetic activity in the Middle East sent oil prices higher with ICE Brent briefly testing $100 before pulling back. Major US indices were under pressure with the S&P 500 falling 0.6%. The equal-weight and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down nearly twice that amount, with the latter closing below its 50d ma. AI hardware and infrastructure stocks were upside standouts following the release of new models and partnership announcements (QCOM/AMZN & GLW/VZ). This once again came at the expense of software which fell nearly 2%. However, Oracle, this morning's Opening Bell ringer, bucked that trend given their heavy exposure to Open AI. Healthcare was the worst performing sector following some disappointing high profile trial results. Financials also underperformed with payments processors, financial data analytics and insurance companies some of the worst performing. Energy and yield oriented sectors, REITS and Utilities, were the only other sectors to end higher.
European equities were under pressure overnight, with Brent and Dutch TTF continuing to press higher. The S&P 500 opened modestly lower, still above its 50d ma but in the bottom quarter of the 7600-7800 range the index has been in since early August. The intraday range was tight though, partly due to the market waiting to hear the Treasury announce its updated buyback operations. Treasury previously said it would be increase the program for 10-30y securities, from a $2B maximum per operation, to at least $4B. Treasury Secretary / market warlock Bessent later appeared on CNBC where he stressed, among other things, that it could be more than $4B. Expectations generally ranged from $4B-$10B, and Treasury wound up around the middle, announcing a maximum of $6B of 10 and 20y buyback at tomorrow's operation. 10 and 30y yields rose ~5bp from their levels prior to the announcement, as the number was below the high-end of expectations.
Equities moved lower on the news. As we type this up (no AI Slop here) the S&P is down 0.5%, equal-weight -0.8% and the Russell 2000 is down over 1%.
Every sector is lower except for Energy. Discretionary is leading to the downside. Earnings reactions have been mixed today from consumer/retail names. Casey's is down 15%, Chewy 10% and Lululemon 4%. Caleres is up 5%, bucking the footwear weakness we've seen. Academy Sports is up 10%, Jersey Mike's and J Jill are up ~10% and Signet Jewelers is up ~20%. Smithfield Foods (pork and hog producer) is also down over 5% after a negative pre-announcement. Kimberly Clark is down ~5% after presenting at a brokerage conference and noting three challenges that have arisen since Q2 results that will likely cause a softer than expected Q3: launch postponement, distributor disruption and a tight freight market. Consumer Staples, Industrials, Real Estate and Utilities are right behind, down ~1% each.
In tech, OpenAI's new Astra model continues to generate press, including controversy around it solving the Navier-Stokes problem - which everyone knows describes fluid motion mathematically. It took 88 hours and 10,000 AI agents to find a case where the Navier-Stokes equation doesn't work. It may be one of the largest amounts of computing power ever thrown at a singular scientific problem. Also, the model may have borrowed extensively from a competing, flesh-and-blood, actually alive scientists' work.
Meta (+5%) is keeping Comm Services among the better performing sectors. It's Muse AI, a personal AI assistant, was unveiled yesterday afternoon, and has been described as “OpenClaw for normies”, so it's still not designed for me. Apple is modestly lower ahead of this afternoon's annual iPhone launch event, where the company is expected to unveil a foldable phone.
There's not much data on today's economic calendar. Mortgage applications fell 0.2% versus the prior week. The ADP weekly employment change ticked up to 12k from 11.75k a couple of weeks ago. We noted the buyback news above. Yields are slightly off their highs at the long-end, helped by this afternoon's strong 10yr auction that stopped through by 1.5bp.
The Yen continued to strengthen versus the USD but erased a good portion of today's gains following the buyback news and yield move. The yen has failed to strength past 153 the past two days. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned traders not to bet against the currency (yen) saying “I am the house now” while once again suggesting he has “asymmetric information” as to local monetary/fiscal policy. New meme activated.
- US 2yr +3bps to 4.43%, 5yr +5bps to 4.61%, 10yr +5bps to 4.84%, 30yr +5bps to 5.30%
- USD index: +$0.01 to $98.80
Brent crude is up ~3% after Iran and the US exchanged more fire overnight. The EIA slightly lowered its 2026 word oil output to 100.6Mbpd, vs. prior 100.8M and tweaked 2027 output higher by a similar 0.2M, to 109.9Mbpd. 2027 demand remains unchanged at 105Mbpd, while 2026 demand was nudged lower, from 102.7M to 102.6Mbpd.
US and European nat gas prices continue to diverge with the latter adding to recent gains, up another 5% today. After moving lower yesterday precious metals were bouncing off the overnight lows. However gold moved back down to around unchanged as yields and the dollar rose. Yesterday copper hit new highs and is around unchanged. Ag is mostly lower. Crypto is recouping some of the recent pullback but off its highs, reacting like the rest of the commodity complex as yields and the Dollar moved higher. Bitcoin fell back below $80k again after failing to regain it earlier. ETH continues to hover ~$2500.
Global markets were mostly lower overnight. Ahead of the ECB's rate decision tomorrow (25bp hike largely expected), major European indices fell 1.5% - 2%, with broad- based weakness. Retail, Financials and Industrials were some of the worst performing sectors. Energy and utilities were the lone positive standouts. Yields across the region moved sharply higher while French Industrial Production was weaker than expected.
Markets in Asia were mostly lower, but only slightly. South Korea was the upside standout though the Dynamic Duo of Samsung (flat) and SK Hynix (+3%) only contributed modestly. Job gains hit a 5-month high, sending the unemployment rate lower. The Nikkei ended slightly lower with financials and retail underperforming. Local markets in China were mixed. Inflation data came in a touch hotter than expectations. Regulators are reportedly limiting IPO approvals of startups that are working on humanoid robots after a poor debut of Unitree.
Tomorrow will bring the NFL Thursday night game (49ers vs. Rams) to follow up tonight's kickoff. The ECB will announce its rate decision and PPI will be the headline data in the US, ahead of the CPI on Friday. Oracle will be the key earnings report after the close.
Earnings:
After-Market: AVAV, AEO, NAVN, SKIL, WLTH
Pre-Market (Thrs): CAL, DBI, M, MCFT, TEN, VNCE
After-Market (Thrs): ADBE, CPRT, DSGX, ORCL, RH, ZUMZ
Economic data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: -0.2% w.w vs prior 2.2%
- Refis: 6.2% vs prior -1.1%
- 30yr Rate - 6.85% vs prior 6.79%
- ADP Weekly Employment Change: 12k prior 11.75k
Global:
- China CPI: 0.4% / 0.8% m.m / y.y vs. 0.3% / 0.8% cons., prior -0.1% / 0.5%
- China PPI: 3.8% y.y vs. 3.7% cons., prior 3.5%
- South Korea Unemployment: 2.7% prior 2.8%
- Japan Machine Orders: 64.7% prior 50.4%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 9/9/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Coming out of the holiday weekend equities were in a bit of a foul mood. A pickup in kinetic activity in the Middle East sent oil prices higher with ICE Brent briefly testing $100 before pulling back. Major US indices were under pressure with the S&P 500 falling 0.6%. The equal-weight and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down nearly twice that amount, with the latter closing below its 50d ma. AI hardware and infrastructure stocks were upside standouts following the release of new models and partnership announcements (QCOM/AMZN & GLW/VZ). This once again came at the expense of software which fell nearly 2%. However, Oracle, who happens to be ringing the opening bell today, bucked that trend given their heavy exposure to Open AI. Healthcare was the worst performing sector following some disappointing high profile trial results. Financials also underperformed with payments processors, financial data analytics and insurance companies some of the worst performing. Energy and yield oriented sectors, REITS and Utilities, were the only other sectors to end higher.
Futures are under pressure again as oil prices are on the move higher amidst the continued exchange of fire in the Middle East. ICE Brent is up ~3% trading above $100 again. AI continues to be the other focal point with continued positive reviews of the Astra release while Meta (+5%) is moving higher after launching Muse AI, a personal AI assistant which has been described as “OpenClaw for normies”. This afternoon Apple is expected to unveil a foldable phone at its iPhone launch event. S&P futures are just off the morning lows down ~0.3%.
There is only tertiary economic data on today’s calendar with mortgage apps falling 2.7% w.w. The ADP weekly employment change ticked up to 12k from 11.75k a couple of weeks ago. Treasury yields are only ticking up modestly given the move in oil/overseas. The Treasury is expected to announce the terms of its new buyback program this morning. There is also a $39B 10yr auction this afternoon. The Yen continues to strengthen versus the USD. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned traders not to bet against the currency saying “I am the house now” while once again suggesting he has “asymmetric information” as to local monetary/fiscal policy.
Global markets were mostly lower overnight. Major European indices are down between 1.5% - 2%. There is broad based weakness with financials, retail and industrials some of the worst performing sectors. Energy and utilities are the lone positive standouts. The FTSE 100 is “only” down 1% modestly outperforming given the heavy energy weighting in the index. Yields across the region are moving sharply higher. Markets in Asia were also mostly lower though there were pockets of tech related strength. South Korea was the upside standout hiring hit a new 5 month high sending the unemployment rate lower. The Nikkei ended slightly lower with financials and retail underperforming. Local markets in China were mixed. Local inflation data came in a touch hotter than expectations. Regulators are reportedly limiting IPO approvals of startups that are working on humanoid robots after a poor debut of Unitree.
Oil prices are up ~3%. US and European nat gas prices continue to diverge with the latter adding to recent gains. After moving lower yesterday precious metals are bouncing off the overnight lows hovering around
unchanged. Yesterday copper hit new highs and is pulling back modestly. Ag is moving slightly lower. Crypto is recouping some of the recent pullback with Bitcoin approaching 80k again and Ethereum continuing to hover ~2,500.
Earnings
After-Market: BRZE, CASY, GME, TTAN
Pre-Market: ASO, CHWY, CNM, JILL, JMKE, KFY, SAIL, SIG, SUNB
After-Market: AVAV, AEO, NAVN, SKIL, WLTH
Economic Data:
US:
Coming out of the holiday weekend equities were in a bit of a foul mood. A pickup in kinetic activity in the Middle East sent oil prices higher with ICE Brent briefly testing $100 before pulling back. Major US indices were under pressure with the S&P 500 falling 0.6%. The equal-weight and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down nearly twice that amount, with the latter closing below its 50d ma. AI hardware and infrastructure stocks were upside standouts following the release of new models and partnership announcements (QCOM/AMZN & GLW/VZ). This once again came at the expense of software which fell nearly 2%. However, Oracle, who happens to be ringing the opening bell today, bucked that trend given their heavy exposure to Open AI. Healthcare was the worst performing sector following some disappointing high profile trial results. Financials also underperformed with payments processors, financial data analytics and insurance companies some of the worst performing. Energy and yield oriented sectors, REITS and Utilities, were the only other sectors to end higher.
Futures are under pressure again as oil prices are on the move higher amidst the continued exchange of fire in the Middle East. ICE Brent is up ~3% trading above $100 again. AI continues to be the other focal point with continued positive reviews of the Astra release while Meta (+5%) is moving higher after launching Muse AI, a personal AI assistant which has been described as “OpenClaw for normies”. This afternoon Apple is expected to unveil a foldable phone at its iPhone launch event. S&P futures are just off the morning lows down ~0.3%.
There is only tertiary economic data on today’s calendar with mortgage apps falling 2.7% w.w. The ADP weekly employment change ticked up to 12k from 11.75k a couple of weeks ago. Treasury yields are only ticking up modestly given the move in oil/overseas. The Treasury is expected to announce the terms of its new buyback program this morning. There is also a $39B 10yr auction this afternoon. The Yen continues to strengthen versus the USD. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned traders not to bet against the currency saying “I am the house now” while once again suggesting he has “asymmetric information” as to local monetary/fiscal policy.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.41%, 5yr +2bps to 4.59%, 10yr +2bps to 4.81%, 30yr +0bps to 5.25%
- USD index: -$0.14 to $98.65
Global markets were mostly lower overnight. Major European indices are down between 1.5% - 2%. There is broad based weakness with financials, retail and industrials some of the worst performing sectors. Energy and utilities are the lone positive standouts. The FTSE 100 is “only” down 1% modestly outperforming given the heavy energy weighting in the index. Yields across the region are moving sharply higher. Markets in Asia were also mostly lower though there were pockets of tech related strength. South Korea was the upside standout hiring hit a new 5 month high sending the unemployment rate lower. The Nikkei ended slightly lower with financials and retail underperforming. Local markets in China were mixed. Local inflation data came in a touch hotter than expectations. Regulators are reportedly limiting IPO approvals of startups that are working on humanoid robots after a poor debut of Unitree.
Oil prices are up ~3%. US and European nat gas prices continue to diverge with the latter adding to recent gains. After moving lower yesterday precious metals are bouncing off the overnight lows hovering around
unchanged. Yesterday copper hit new highs and is pulling back modestly. Ag is moving slightly lower. Crypto is recouping some of the recent pullback with Bitcoin approaching 80k again and Ethereum continuing to hover ~2,500.
Earnings
After-Market: BRZE, CASY, GME, TTAN
Pre-Market: ASO, CHWY, CNM, JILL, JMKE, KFY, SAIL, SIG, SUNB
After-Market: AVAV, AEO, NAVN, SKIL, WLTH
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage apps: -2.7% w.w prior 0.8%; 30yr Rate - 6.85% prior 6.79%
- ADP Weekly Employment Change: 12k prior 11.75k
- China CPI: 0.4%/0.8% m.m/y.y vs. 0.3%/0.8% cons., prior -0.1%/0.5%
- China PPI: 3.8% vs. 3.7% cons., prior 3.5%
- South Korea Unemployment: 2.7% prior 2.8%
- Japan Machine Orders: 64.7% prior 50.4%
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