STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 9/29/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
There was a lot of conflicting news on Iran yesterday, mostly focused on the nuclear issue. In the end the S&P 500, S&P equal-weight and the Russell 2000 all fell around 0.7%. Once again a rise in yields was a primary driver as rates rose 6-8bp across the curve. Brent November crude traded between $104-$109 before settling ~$105.25, up 1%. Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Energy were the only sectors higher while Comm Services (META giving back some of its recent big gains), Discretionary and Financials led lower.
President Trump eventually provided some clarity when he denied he was weighing sanctions relief in return for ‘concrete’ steps over Iran’s nuclear program. The back and forth news flow continues, however. S&P futures are modestly higher and near best levels with yields and oil modestly lower and the Yankees-Red Sox playoff game several hours away. While sanctions relief for Iran may not be coming, the Atlantic reported that Trump would back relief for Russia. That has helped push oil lower. There are a few earnings reports out. Carmax is up 5% in the pre-market after strong top and bottom beats along with lower provisions in its finance business. Carnival reports this morning as well. JEF is around flat after the bank reported strength in Equity Underwriting (+69%), equity trading +29%, offset by weakness in Fixed Income and Asset Management. Smart-ring maker Oura became the latest company to delay its IPO due to market uncertainty, while Anthropic’s S-1 has leaked according to multiple reports. OpenAI’s Developer conference is today- the company scraped the release of its latest model on safety concerns- and a number tech executives will meet with Trump around noon to discuss the technology formerly known as AI (‘Super Intelligence).
Yields are flat to slightly lower as Treasuries see a modest bid across most of the curve. The US Dollar Index is higher, however. There’s a lot of Fed speakers today and JOLTS and Consumer Confidence will be the main data releases after the Open.
Europe is trading higher with most major indexes around best levels. Healthcare, Financials. Travel & Leisure are leading while Energy, Food, Beverage and Household products lag. Shipper Hapag-Lloyd had a positive pre-announcement, good for the company but another reminder that transportation costs are pressuring prices throughout the supply chain. ECB President Lagarde said yesterday the policy rate is at the upper-end of the neutral range. She also said the ECB would expand euro-swap lines to bolster the currency’s global position. Asia was mostly lower. Australia hiked rates as expected but said further hikes were not as likely. Chinese equities were mixed as the Hang Seng fell 0.5% with tech names lower while Shanghai was slightly higher. Beijing vague-posted about moving with “greater urgency” on “new measures” to jump start the economy. CNBC reported that Chinese regulators are tightening requirements for robotic IPOs, specifically humanoid robotics. The requirements, if you’re curious about listing there: sustainable revenue and commercial orders, narrowing losses, and core technology like robotic brains. South Korea ended lower. Samsung will invest $1B in Helix Digital, a recently launched data-center developer backed by KKR, Nvidia, and Vistra, among others.
Earnings:
After-Market: IDT, JEF, MTN
Pre-Market: KMX, CCL, UEC
After-Market: AIR, CNXC
Economic Data:
US:
There was a lot of conflicting news on Iran yesterday, mostly focused on the nuclear issue. In the end the S&P 500, S&P equal-weight and the Russell 2000 all fell around 0.7%. Once again a rise in yields was a primary driver as rates rose 6-8bp across the curve. Brent November crude traded between $104-$109 before settling ~$105.25, up 1%. Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Energy were the only sectors higher while Comm Services (META giving back some of its recent big gains), Discretionary and Financials led lower.
President Trump eventually provided some clarity when he denied he was weighing sanctions relief in return for ‘concrete’ steps over Iran’s nuclear program. The back and forth news flow continues, however. S&P futures are modestly higher and near best levels with yields and oil modestly lower and the Yankees-Red Sox playoff game several hours away. While sanctions relief for Iran may not be coming, the Atlantic reported that Trump would back relief for Russia. That has helped push oil lower. There are a few earnings reports out. Carmax is up 5% in the pre-market after strong top and bottom beats along with lower provisions in its finance business. Carnival reports this morning as well. JEF is around flat after the bank reported strength in Equity Underwriting (+69%), equity trading +29%, offset by weakness in Fixed Income and Asset Management. Smart-ring maker Oura became the latest company to delay its IPO due to market uncertainty, while Anthropic’s S-1 has leaked according to multiple reports. OpenAI’s Developer conference is today- the company scraped the release of its latest model on safety concerns- and a number tech executives will meet with Trump around noon to discuss the technology formerly known as AI (‘Super Intelligence).
Yields are flat to slightly lower as Treasuries see a modest bid across most of the curve. The US Dollar Index is higher, however. There’s a lot of Fed speakers today and JOLTS and Consumer Confidence will be the main data releases after the Open.
- US 2yr -1bps to 4.92%, 5yr -1bps to 5.06%, 10yr -1bps to 5.23%, 30yr +1bps to 5.56%
- USD index: +$0.14 to $101.07
Europe is trading higher with most major indexes around best levels. Healthcare, Financials. Travel & Leisure are leading while Energy, Food, Beverage and Household products lag. Shipper Hapag-Lloyd had a positive pre-announcement, good for the company but another reminder that transportation costs are pressuring prices throughout the supply chain. ECB President Lagarde said yesterday the policy rate is at the upper-end of the neutral range. She also said the ECB would expand euro-swap lines to bolster the currency’s global position. Asia was mostly lower. Australia hiked rates as expected but said further hikes were not as likely. Chinese equities were mixed as the Hang Seng fell 0.5% with tech names lower while Shanghai was slightly higher. Beijing vague-posted about moving with “greater urgency” on “new measures” to jump start the economy. CNBC reported that Chinese regulators are tightening requirements for robotic IPOs, specifically humanoid robotics. The requirements, if you’re curious about listing there: sustainable revenue and commercial orders, narrowing losses, and core technology like robotic brains. South Korea ended lower. Samsung will invest $1B in Helix Digital, a recently launched data-center developer backed by KKR, Nvidia, and Vistra, among others.
Earnings:
After-Market: IDT, JEF, MTN
Pre-Market: KMX, CCL, UEC
After-Market: AIR, CNXC
Economic Data:
US:
- Case-Shiller Home Prices y.y: 2.5% vs 2.2% cons, prior 2.2%
- 10:00am JOLTS
- 10:00am Consumer Confidence
- 10:30am Dallas Fed Services
- 11:30am 52w auction
- Fed Speakers: Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams, Waller
- 2:00pm Treasury buyback results (1-10y)
- 4:30pm API crude inventories
- Australia rate decision: hiked 25bp to 4.6% as expected
- Korea Business Confidence: 79 vs prior 81
- Spain inflation: 4.9% vs 4.7% cons, prior 4.3%
- UK consumer credit: £2.464B vs £1.9B cons, prior £2.097B
- EU Economic Sentiment: 97.9 vs 99 cons, prior 98.4
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