STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 9/25/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning and Happy Friday,
Yesterday, with the trade truce extended to January and markets awaiting the Trump-Xi meeting, news that Oracle was using force majeure to protect itself from data center build delays triggered a new round of concerns about AI financing. The S&P was down until later in the day when reports came out that the US and Iran were discussing a phased deal to reopen the SOH. The index bounced around after that and ended around flat, but the equal-weight fell 0.5% and Russell 2000 was off 0.1%. The S&P’s performance may have been a relative win given the volatile action in treasuries and oil ending higher. The yield curve steepened overall. The long end rose another ~10bp while the 2y rose ~3bp. Comm Services was the leading sector with more strength from META. Healthcare, Energy and Financials were the other sectors flat to higher while Utilities, Materials, Staples and Industrials lagged.
Equity futures are looking to end the week on a high note as we are in the green and near best levels. The US is mulling a confirmed Iranian proposal to reopen SOH and restart negotiations. However it looks like the US is looking for a new, more comprehensive agreement, rather than a rehash of the MOU, and Gulf states are reportedly pressing to keep the pressure on Iran. Beyond the extended trade truce between China and the US, and a couple new pandas coming to the US, there wasn’t much incremental form the Trump-Xi meeting, though not much was expected. The political sphere noted Xi’s more aggressive language around Taiwan along with his more Mao-ist attire at last night’s dinner. In corporate news, Akamai is a leader in the pre-market, up ~15% after announcing a $12B contract with Anthropic (Anthropic gets warrants for 5% of AKAM shares). Notable that AKAM expects capex associated with the contract to be ~$6B, or around half the initial contract size. Costco is slightly higher after reporting earnings last night. Average ticket was up 3.3% (ex-gas), as was traffic. Jeff Bezos’ space company Blue Origin reportedly raised $10B with a $140B valuation.
Treasury yields are lower across the curve as the 2y falls 5bp and 10/30y down ~2bp. Durable Goods orders were better than expected, continuing their strong trend. NY Fed President Williams spoke early this morning, noting the Fed should ensure inflation shocks don’t become entrenched, and he isn’t seeing any productivity impact from AI yet. The US Dollar Index is modestly higher though the yen is strengthening on reports of US and Japanese officials again focusing on yen weakness.
European equities are trading higher, despite the Germany GfK consumer survey weakening. Financials are leading along with Travel & Leisure and Industrial names. ECB loan data was largely in line. In Japan the Nikkei was up 1.3%, ending the abridged trading week 2% higher. Banks led. Mainland China was closed for holiday- as was South Korea and Taiwan- but Hong Kong fell 1%.
Earnings:
After-Market (Thrs): COST, SCHL
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday, with the trade truce extended to January and markets awaiting the Trump-Xi meeting, news that Oracle was using force majeure to protect itself from data center build delays triggered a new round of concerns about AI financing. The S&P was down until later in the day when reports came out that the US and Iran were discussing a phased deal to reopen the SOH. The index bounced around after that and ended around flat, but the equal-weight fell 0.5% and Russell 2000 was off 0.1%. The S&P’s performance may have been a relative win given the volatile action in treasuries and oil ending higher. The yield curve steepened overall. The long end rose another ~10bp while the 2y rose ~3bp. Comm Services was the leading sector with more strength from META. Healthcare, Energy and Financials were the other sectors flat to higher while Utilities, Materials, Staples and Industrials lagged.
Equity futures are looking to end the week on a high note as we are in the green and near best levels. The US is mulling a confirmed Iranian proposal to reopen SOH and restart negotiations. However it looks like the US is looking for a new, more comprehensive agreement, rather than a rehash of the MOU, and Gulf states are reportedly pressing to keep the pressure on Iran. Beyond the extended trade truce between China and the US, and a couple new pandas coming to the US, there wasn’t much incremental form the Trump-Xi meeting, though not much was expected. The political sphere noted Xi’s more aggressive language around Taiwan along with his more Mao-ist attire at last night’s dinner. In corporate news, Akamai is a leader in the pre-market, up ~15% after announcing a $12B contract with Anthropic (Anthropic gets warrants for 5% of AKAM shares). Notable that AKAM expects capex associated with the contract to be ~$6B, or around half the initial contract size. Costco is slightly higher after reporting earnings last night. Average ticket was up 3.3% (ex-gas), as was traffic. Jeff Bezos’ space company Blue Origin reportedly raised $10B with a $140B valuation.
Treasury yields are lower across the curve as the 2y falls 5bp and 10/30y down ~2bp. Durable Goods orders were better than expected, continuing their strong trend. NY Fed President Williams spoke early this morning, noting the Fed should ensure inflation shocks don’t become entrenched, and he isn’t seeing any productivity impact from AI yet. The US Dollar Index is modestly higher though the yen is strengthening on reports of US and Japanese officials again focusing on yen weakness.
- US 2yr -5bps to 4.88%, 5yr -4bps to 5.02%, 10yr -3bps to 5.18%, 30yr -1bps to 5.48%
- USD index: +$0.20 to $101.22
European equities are trading higher, despite the Germany GfK consumer survey weakening. Financials are leading along with Travel & Leisure and Industrial names. ECB loan data was largely in line. In Japan the Nikkei was up 1.3%, ending the abridged trading week 2% higher. Banks led. Mainland China was closed for holiday- as was South Korea and Taiwan- but Hong Kong fell 1%.
Earnings:
After-Market (Thrs): COST, SCHL
Economic Data:
US:
- Durable Goods m.m: 0.0% vs -0.4% cons, prior 1.1%
- Durable Goods non-defense, ex-air: 1.6% vs 0.5% cons, prior 0.2%
- 9:15am Fed Schmid speech
- 10:00am Univ Mich final
- 1:00pm Rig Count
- 2:00pm Fed Hammack
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence: -30.6 vs -27.4 cons, prior -26.8
- Europe loans to companies y.y: 4.2% vs prior 4.4%
- Europe loans to households y.y: 3.1% vs prior 3.1%
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