STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 10/06/26 (a/o 1:00 pm)
DOW 51,532 (+264), S&P 500 7,826 (+52), Russell 2000 2,838 (-9), NYSE FANG+ 19,559 (+192), ICE Brent Crude $100.39/barrel (+$0.07), Gold $4,188/oz (+$32), Bitcoin ~85.6k (-357)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday equities had a strong start to the week unlike the Yankees who ended last night’s game with as many errors as they had hits. Within markets there wasn’t a clear identifiable catalyst to explain the sudden burst of strength. Despite yields continuing to move higher breadth has been improving since late last week with only REITs closing lower yesterday. Materials, Comm Services and Energy led to the upside. The S&P 500 ended the session up 0.7% within a stone’s throw of all-time highs.

Thankfully Jazz wasn’t throwing the stone. Equities are extending yesterday’s gains with the S&P 500 officially hitting a new all-time high shortly after the open. Once again, the gains are pretty broad based being helped by a modest pullback in oil prices and yields, though the former has since reversed. The market cap weighted S&P 500 is up 0.7% while the equal weight is up a similar amount. There is some underperformance in the small caps which are more impacted by the recent rise in rates.
The Russell 2k is down ~0.4%. Healthcare, which is the heaviest weighted sector in the Russell 2k (~20%), is under pressure. A lot of that weakness is happening in the genomics stocks which have been on an AI/SI induced tear. Including a chart of the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF to provide some context. 
Within the S&P 500 healthcare is also the worst performing sector hovering around unchanged. Utilities are leading to the upside with the IPP’s up sharply for the second consecutive day after Constellation (+>10%) announced a 20-year energy supply agreement with Google, following a similar deal with Amazon recently, which will allow it to bring an additional 890mw of new nuclear capacity to the PJM region. This is helping the nuclear complex including SMR’s. Energy infrastructure and construction related stocks are also rallying. This coupled with some strength in airlines is helping the industrial sector outperform. Info tech is also up ~1% with strength in the mega-cap tech stocks and pockets of chips. Marvell had its Investor Day and increased its guidance as the company highlighted the very strong demand for custom silicon. Within technology the hardware and optical stocks are moving higher. Software is also broadly higher with cyber stocks continuing to rip. Memory storage and semi equipment stocks are under some pressure amidst supply concerns. Consumer discretionary is also up ~1% with pretty broad based strength. As oil prices pullback cruise ship operators are leading to the upside though OTA’s are still struggling to overcome the agentic AI concerns. The pullback in yields is helping housing related stocks. Berkshire Hathaway continues to add to its Lennar position taking ownership >10%. Consumer staples are also up ~1%. Lamb-Weston (+>10%) raised guidance this morning driven by North American volume growth and cost savings initiatives. 
It is another somewhat light day of economic data. The trade deficit came in higher than expected increasing to ~$106B from ~$88B last month. The weekly ADP jobs report increased for the fourth consecutive week to 23.75k. The LMI Logistics Manager Index continued to move higher with the report highlighting the increase in Transportation prices (see below). Treasury yields are modestly lower helped by oil and easing of global yields (more below). The US Dollar Index is pulling back after hitting YTD highs yesterday, with the Euro reversing yesterday’s weakness. 

  • US 2yr -3bps to 4.80%, 5yr -3bps to 5.03%, 10yr -3bps to 5.28%, 30yr -2bps to 5.64%
  • USD index: -$0.28 to $101.65
Most European indices ended up between 0.5% to 1% as yields pulled back but equities did end off of session highs. Financials, Materials, and Healthcare were among the leaders. Leading French PM candidate Marine Le Pen put forth her counter-proposal to the government’s 2027 budget offering, eyeing bigger cuts than what was proposed. That looks to have helped put a bid in sovereigns and in particular France’s OAT’s down over 10bp across most of the curve. Economic data was sluggish. German factory orders were sharply lower than expected and French Industrial production missed as well while European Retail Sales missed as well. In Asia Japan’s Nikkei rose 1%. In the midst of the interest rate concerns today’s 10y JGB auction was solid. Tech giant Tokyo Electron was flat after reporting earnings. Mainland China remained closed but the Hang Seng rose 1%. AI model developers DeepSeek and Moonshot both completed funding rounds. Moonshot could IPO in Hong Kong in Q1. South Korea was an outlier, falling ~1%. LG Electronics gained 8% after securing a long-term deal to supply cooling solutions for North American AI data centers. The EWZ Brazilian ETF is trading up 1%, following yesterday’s election-fueled 12% rally.  
Oil prices were down ~3% earlier in the session as SOH flows have been improving approaching pre-war levels, reports that Saudi-backed groups reclaimed territory from the Houthis and continued hopes for a diplomatic resolution. However, prices have reversed on reports of new attacks in the SOH and Saudi Arabia. Yesterday President Trump signed an EO to make red diesel more available to on-road vehicles. Vitol CEO spoke earlier this morning, noting “there aren’t any more inventories to drain in the West”. Natural gas is broadly higher. Metals were lower overnight retesting last week’s lows before bouncing. Ag is also moving higher.  Bitcoin and Ether have pulled back modestly after retesting the recent highs again. Yesterday, the CFTC issued proposed rulemaking and is seeking comments on regulating leveraged crypto trading. 
Tomorrow is setting up to be a somewhat quiet day as Yankee fans nervously await Game 3. Rates will be in focus with a 10year auction in the afternoon followed by the FOMC minutes.

Earnings
After-MarkLarge et: STZ, PENG, WS
Pre-Market: None
After-Market: APLD, LEVI

Economic Data:
US:
  • LMI Logistics Managers Index 70.2 vs prior 66.6
  • ADP weekly employment change: 23.75k vs prior 20K
  • Trade Balance: $-105.6B vs $-102B cons, prior $-88.6B
Global:
  • Germany factory orders: -10.6% vs -1.0% cons, prior 3.2%
  • France Industrial Production: -0.3% vs 0.3% cons, prior 0.6%
  • EU Retail Sales y.y: 0.8% vs 1.0% cons, prior 0.4%

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