Market Update

DOW 48,676 (+619), S&P 500 6,895 (+9), Russell 2000 2,590 (+30), NYSE FANG+ 16,506 (-94), ICE Brent Crude $61.12/barrel (-$1.09), Gold $4,310/oz (+$86), Bitcoin ~90.9k (-1484)

• Digesting the Fed Day Buffet
• S&P claws its way to positive
• Yields, dollar down; Precious metals climbing
• Wake up Babe. New Chat GPT model just dropped
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 503: Emera CEO Scott Balfour on Growth, Strategy, and the Utilities Trilemma
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage Refinance Retention Hits Multi-year High as Falling Rates Spur Activity Among Recently Originated Loans
  • ETF Central: Former CNBC Senior Markets Correspondent Bob Pisani
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
US equities finished yesterday’s Fed Day higher, closing near the day’s best levels following Powell’s press conference as commentary didn’t evolve into anything more Hawkish than expected. You can read our Fed Recap here. Small caps outperformed though riskier areas like thematic baskets were under pressure. The S&P 500 ticked above 6900 at its high. Treasury yields bull-steepened with the short-end down ~7bp while the long end fell ~3bp. With that major event in the rearview mirror, we can turn our attention to addressing the last major lingering issue of the year- is Die Hard a Christmas movie?

Today the S&P began the day in the red and moved to its lows, close to testing yesterday’s lows early in the session and down ~1%. However, we found our footing and began to climb after that, getting into positive territory as we finish writing. Most of the earlier weakness was attributed to reaction across Tech to Oracle earnings last night. The stock was down >10% despite some rather robust numbers overall that included an increase in FY27 sales guidance (+$4bn). The concerns around spending remained firmly in place though and that weighed on shares, with a big negative cash flow print and increased capex guidance due to their AI buildout.
 
With Tech (and Semis in particular) leading lower, Open AI introduced its latest Chat GPT model, around 1pm. The event has been widely anticipated. Alphabet took a quick move lower on the news (-2%), pulling Comm Services down. The good news is that outside of tech, the rest of the market is enjoying a solid post-Fed day. The equal-weight, mid and small caps are up ~1%, as is the Dow. 
 


Materials and Financials are the leading sectors. Fertilizer stocks are helping lift Materials on news that Ukraine bombed Russian fertilizer assets. Mining stocks are also seeing gains as the metals complex jumps across both base and precious with yields and the Dollar falling. Financials are seeing gains across-the-board, especially Insurance and Payments/Services. There will be a few more earnings to look out for after the close, including Broadcom as a good follow-up on Oracle’s report, and Costco, lululemon and Restoration Hardware for consumer spending trends.



We got some mixed signals from the jobless claims data this morning. Weely initial claims jumped from 192k to 236k, well above expectations. However continuing claims showed a sharp decline. The prior week included Thanksgiving and that could be exerting some impact on the numbers. Averaging the two initial claims reports gives you 214k, a little below the 4-week average of 216.75k. There was a solid 30y auction that stopped through by 0.1bp. Treasury yields are down ~3bp across the curve. The Dollar is weaker against the major crosses and fell below CHF 0.80 after the SNB held rates at 0%.     

• US 2yr -3bps to 3.51%, 5yr -4bps to 3.70%, 10yr -3bps to 4.13%, 30yr -2bps to 4.77%
• USD index: -$0.55 to $98.22

Commodities are mixed. Crude is trading almost 2% lower, near the day’s lows ~$61.00 with no follow-through after the US intercepted a Venezuelan tanker yesterday. Updated projections in the IEA Monthly Oil Report calling for a smaller surplus in 2026 failed to generate upside.  The OPEC monthly report was largely unchanged. Natural gas has also weakened throughout the day as well and broke below both the 50 and 100d ma after warmer forecasts for next week and a larger than expected inventory draw.  Axios reported officials from the US, Europe, and Ukraine will meet Saturday to discuss peace plans. Metals meanwhile are sharply higher. After a modest gain yesterday silver has jumped again, up 6%. Gold is back above $4300. Crypto, however, is under some pressure with Bitcoin trying to hold its 20d ma/$90k.

Major European indexes finished higher and at/near their best levels. The SNB held its policy rate at 0% as expected and the ECB will have its rate decision next week.  Chinese equities were flat to lower. Growth/Tech names fell, although Moore Threads, China’s chipmaker that debuted last week, rose 28%. Investors are also looking over pronouncements from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) regarding policy priorities for 2026. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%. Tech names including Softbank followed Oracle’s lead lower. A 20y JGB auction was relatively positive, helping ease yields.  



Earnings:

• After-Market (Wed): ADBE, MTN, NDSN, ORCL, OXM, PL, SKIL, SNPS
• Pre-Market: CIEN, MANU   
• After-Market: AVGO, COST, LULU, NTSK, NX, RH

Economic Data:
US:

• Initial Claims: 236k vs. 220k cons., prior 192k
  • Continuing Claims: vs.1.838k vs. 1.95ml cons., prior 1.937ml
• Trade Balance: vs.-$52.8B vs. -$63.3B cons. prior $-59.6B
• Wholesale Inventories
• Natural Gas Inventories: -177Bcf vs. -165B cons., prior -12Bcf
• 30yr Auction: 4.773% vs. 4.774% when-issued

Global:

• Switzerland rate decision: Hold at 0% as expected
• Australia Employment: -56.5k prior 53.5k
• Australia Unemployment: 4.3% vs. 4.4% cons., prior 4.3%