STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 8/25/26 (a/o 12:30 pm)
DOW 53,486 (+69), S&P 500 7,673 (+20), Russell 2000 3,005 (+10), NYSE FANG+ 18,341 (+110), ICE Brent Crude $88.77/barrel (-$3.40), Gold $4,705/oz (+$7), Bitcoin ~79.1k (+172)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Most major US indices closed modestly lower to start the week. Some negative news flow around frontier model pricing and demand weighed on the AI complex. Reports that Nvidia would raise prices caused some rotation within that complex. Hyperscalers with their own chip solutions moved modestly higher (GOOG - TPUs, AMZN - Trainium, META- MTIA, MSFT - Maia) while companies that are more dependent on the Nvidia ecosystem, like neoclouds, were under pressure. Other thematic momentum trades sold off including quantum, rare earths, nuclear and vision/robotics on the heels of the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games, though the MAC Desk can’t get enough of the robot folly videos. The S&P 500 tested last week’s low before bouncing to close down 0.3%, right around its 20d ma. The equal-weight version of the index and the Dow closed a touch higher with defensive/yield-oriented sectors and financials offsetting the tech weakness. Small caps underperformed with the Russell down 0.8%. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s press conference to discuss Operation Economic Outcast was the highlight of the day but didn’t elicit much of a market response. The new sanctions initiative would target countries and institutions that assist Iran as a way of adding further pressure on the Iranian regime and economy. Oil prices and yields both moved modestly lower. US-Canadian trade also made headlines after talks (aka the Loonie Tunes) collapsed last week with US tariffs on a subset of imports set to be enacted in September. President Trump threatened auto tariffs starting in January. Today Canada announced $20B in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, to taking effect Sept. 8. The tariffs will hit steel, aluminum, furniture and electronic products, with a similar footprint as the US tariffs (~5% of imports).

The late summer mood remains entrenched here on Wall Street. It's quiet as the market awaits this week’s big catalysts starting tomorrow- PCE and NVDA earnings. Pakistan said “significant” progress was made in talks with Iran, helping equity sentiment as it pushed oil lower. The S&P opened up 0.3% and has traded between there and unchanged in another tight range. Tech is bouncing back today, helping the regular index outperform the equal-weight. The Russell 2000 is outperforming as oil and yields fall.
Tech is the leading sector today, bouncing back from yesterday's weakness ahead of NVIDA (+1%) and CRM (-1%) earnings tomorrow night. The NYSE Semis Index is up ~2% while the DRAM ETF is up 3%. Neoclouds and reversing yesterday's weakness as well while the hyperscalers are mixed. Healthcare is another leader today. Biopharma strength is offsetting broader Med Tech weakness, along with modest weakness in services.  

Most other sectors are trading within 20bp of unchanged. Energy is lagging with oil's weakness. Consumer Staples is also weaker as the sector sees across-the-board declines. Big box retailers are seeing weakness along with retail in general as Dicks trades sharply lower following earnings. The company noted "as the quarter progressed, conditions across portions of the athletic footwear and apparel marketplace became increasingly promotional..." and guidance was lowered.
Equities are being helped by the move lower in yields. 10/30y are down ~5bp and are looking to test the lower end of the range they've been trading within over the past month. A 2-year auction is set for later today. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s former boss, Stanley Druckenmiller, penned an Op-ed in the WSJ, criticizing last week’s buyback announcement and generating some buzz. There was also some minor economic data. The ADP weekly employment change increased to 11,75k from 9.5k last week. Consumer confidence slipped from last month. Present conditions rose while expectations fell. The US Dollar Index has followed yields lower.

  • US 2yr -3bps to 4.20%, 5yr -4bps to 4.36%, 10yr -5bps to 4.65%, 30yr -5bps to 5.18%
  • USD index: -$0.07 to $98.86
Home Prices rose a little over 2% from last year according to both the FHFA and the Case-Shiller indexes. New Home Sales fell to 0.607M for July, down from 0.678M.
Global markets traded modestly higher overnight. The Nikkei and Kospi both closed up less than 1%, recouping some of yesterday’s losses. SK Hynix closed a touch higher despite its union rejecting a preliminary wage hike proposal. The stock was down about 7% at its lows before rallying. Markets in China / Hong Kong also closed around unchanged levels after the response to yesterday’s Iran and trade news. China said it would retaliate if new US sanctions hit Chinese firms linked to Iran. In the meantime, the US could impose 7.5% “overcapacity” tariffs on China to counter excess manufacturing, according to reports. Details are still being worked out. China's National People’s Congress will take place throughout the week. European indices finished mostly higher though France ended slightly lower with retail/luxury and financials weaker. Germany outperformed after Q2 GDP was revised higher and the Ifo surveys came in ahead of expectations. Manufacturing and tech stocks were higher but SAP was down modestly, though off its lows. The FTSE 100 rallied off its lows. Staples and energy weighed on the index while miners, pharma and Utilities led. PM Burnham will reportedly not rule out a tax hike in the Autumn budget.
Oil prices are at their lows today with Brent down over 3%. The commodity was trading lower overnight after Pakistan mentioned substantial progress in the Iran situation. It took another leg lower around noon after news of an agreement between Oman and Iran that would establish safe passage through the Strait. The Oct contract has fallen below $90, having erased all of last week's gain. Natural gas is down ~2% in both the US and Europe. Precious metals are mixed with gold hovering around unchanged. Copper is moving to session highs and back towards its ATH. The Commerce Department submitted a proposal to expand the scope of steel, aluminum and and copper tariffs earlier this month and the associated comment period ends on August 27. Bitcoin broke above $80k overnight but couldn’t hold the gains, currently hovering ~$79.5k. Ag is trading higher.  
Earnings:
After-Market: BOX, HEI, INTU, SMTC, ZM
Pre-Market (Wed): ANF, BBWI, DCI, DY, SJM, KSS, MOV, WSM
After-Market (Wed): A, CRWD, HP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, OOMA, P, CRM, SNPS, URBN, VEEV

Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP Weekly Employment Change: 11.75k vs prior 9.5k
  • S&P Case Shiller Home Prices y.y: 2.1% vs. 1.7% cons., prior 1.6%
  • FHFA Home Prices y.y: 2.3% vs prior 2.4%
  • Consumer Confidence: 89..4 vs 90.2 cons, prior 90.2
  • New Home Sales: 0.607M vs 0.62M cons, prior 0.678M
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing: 4 vs 7 cons, prior 5
  • 1:00 2Yr Auction
  • 1:00 Money Supply
  • 4:00 Fed Barkin
  • 4:30 API Oil Inventories
Global:
  • Spain PPI: 9.2% prior 7%
  • Germany Q2 GDP (final): 0.3% revised from 0.2%
  • Germany Ifo Business Climate: 88.8 vs 87.2 cons, prior 86.7
  • Current Conditions: 88.5 vs 87.0 cons, prior 86.5
  • Expectations: 89.1 vs 87.5 cons, prior 86.8 
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/25/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
Most major US indices closed modestly lower to start the week. Some negative news flow around frontier model pricing and demand weighed on the AI complex. Reports that Nvidia would raise prices caused some rotation within that complex as hyperscalers that have been working on their own solutions to ween off of Nvidia products moved modestly higher (GOOG - TPUs, AMZN - Trainium, META- MTIA, MSFT - Maia) while companies that are more dependent on the Nvidia ecosystem, like neoclouds, were under pressure. Other thematic momentum trades also sold off including quantum, rare earths, nuclear and vision/robotics on the heels of the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games, though the MAC Desk can’t get enough of the robot folly videos.  The S&P 500 tested last week’s low before bouncing to close down 0.3%, right around its 20d ma. The equal-weight version of the index and the Dow closed a touch higher with defensive/yield-oriented sectors and financials offsetting the tech weakness. Small caps underperformed with the Russell down 0.8%. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s press conference to discuss Operation Economic Outcast was the highlight of the day but didn’t elicit much of a market response. The new sanctions initiative would target countries and institutions that assist Iran as a way of adding further pressure on the Iranian regime and economy. Oil prices and yields both moved modestly lower. US-Canadian trade also made headlines after talks collapsed last week with tariffs set to be enacted in September, while President Trump threatened auto tariffs in January.
 
It remains quiet as the market awaits the week’s big catalysts starting tomorrow. US equity futures have moved modestly higher overnight as Pakistan said “significant”, progress was made in talks with Iran, which is knocking another 3% off of crude this morning, following yesterday’s decline. China said it would retaliate if new US sanctions hit Chinese firms linked to Iran. In the meantime, the US could impose 7.5% “overcapacity” tariffs on China to counter excess manufacturing, according to reports. Details are still being worked out.  The other big story overnight was the WSJ op-ed by Treasury Secretary Bessent’s former boss, Stanley Druckenmiller, who criticized last week’s buyback announcement. That being said, the move lower in oil prices is helping Treasury yields pullback 2-4bps across the curve. Dick’s Sporting Goods is trading down >15% after missing earnings and cutting guidance. Management highlighted an increasingly promotional environment which weighed on its footwear/apparel business (NKE/LULU/UA/DECK/ONON all down ~2%). Semi/memory stocks are bouncing in the pre-market while software stocks are trading lower. S&P, Dow and R2k futures are just off overnight highs up ~0.4%.   
 

 
The ADP weekly employment change increased to 11,750 from 9.5k last week. After the open consumer confidence and new home will be released. There is also a $69B 2yr auction at 1:00. The USD index is off the overnight high hovering around unchanged and just below its 200d ma. 
  • US 2yr -3bps to 4.21%, 5yr -4bps to 4.37%, 10yr -4bps to 4.66%, 30yr -4bps to 5.19%
  • USD index: +$0.02 to $98.95
Global markets traded modestly higher overnight. The Nikkei and Kospi both closed up less than 1% recouping some of yesterday’s losses. SK Hynix closed a touch higher after its union rejected a preliminary wage hike. Markets in China/Hong Kong also closed around unchanged levels after the response to yesterday’s news. China National People’s Congress will be ongoing throughout the week. European indices are trading near overnight highs. Germany is outperforming after Q2 GDP was revised higher and the Ifo surveys came in ahead of expectations. Manufacturing and tech stocks are moving higher though SAP is down ~2%. The FTSE 100 is underperforming with staples and energy weighing on the index. PM Burnham will reportedly not rule out a tax hike in the Autumn budget.
 

 
Oil prices are extending to the downside near overnight lows trading off ~3%. Natural gas prices in both the US/Europe are down a similar amount. Precious metals are moving modestly lower though copper is holding on to small gains. Ag is also pulling back. Bitcoin broke above 80k overnight but couldn’t hold the gains, currently hovering ~79k. The rest of the crypto complex is pulling back.
 

 
Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP Weekly Employment Change: prior 9.5k
  • S&P Case Shiller: vs. 1.7% cons., prior 1.6%
  • 10:00 Consumer Confidence
  • 10:00 New Home Sales
  • 10:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing
  • 1:00 2Yr Auction
  • 1:00 Money Supply
  • 4:00 Fed Barkin
  • 4:30 API Oil Inventories
Global:
  • Spain PPI: 9.2% prior 7%
  • Germany Q2 GDP: 0.3% revised from 0.2%
  • Germany Ifo Business Climate: 88.8 vs 87.4 cons, prior 86.7
    • Current Conditions: 88.5 vs 87.0 cons, prior 86.5
    • Expectations: 89.1 vs 87.5 cons, prior 86.8

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