NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 11/19/2025
DOW 46,132 (+41), S&P 500 6,639 (+22), Russell 2000 2,348 (-1), NYSE FANG+ 16,031 (+25), ICE Brent Crude $63.40/barrel (-$1.49), Gold $4,085/oz (+$19), Bitcoin ~89.3k (-3171)
Yesterday the S&P 500 closed down 0.8% for its fourth straight loss. The index rallied back to unchanged before fading in the back half of the day. Tech was a drag despite another busy day of AI-related headlines, and there are plenty more today. And we’re not even talking about Nivida earnings after the close. The NYSE FANG+ index was down -1.4% and the ICE Semi fell -2.3%. However beyond Tech the losses weren’t widespread with the equal weight version of the index closing around unchanged as sector rotation was in play. Healthcare and Energy closed up ~0.5%, continuing recent outperformance. Most small and midcap indices ended with modest gains.
The S&P is up modestly today though off its intraday high, pulling back as the 50d ma ~6710 came within sight. Unlike yesterday, the equal-weight is lagging as tech-heavy sectors are out in front. Alphabet is a big reason why as the AltaVista search engine killer is up 3%. Semis are flipping yesterday’s performance with most of the group higher, including Nvidia up ~2% heading into its earnings. Small and midcaps are trading around unchanged. There’s a clear split between Growth and Value across market caps, and it’s interesting to see what’s holding up in light of another assault on the crypto complex.
Sectors are split between gains and losses. Energy, Real Estate and Staples are lagging; Energy pulled lower on crude’s weakness while Staples and Real Estate reverse yesterday’s relative outperformance. Target had clawed back to unchanged after starting lower following earnings this morning, but reversed lower around noon. Lowe’s (+5%) is among the best performers in the S&P today following its earnings.
Treasury yields are flat. A 20y auction today tailed by 0.2bp but markets didn’t react. FOMC minutes are out at 2pm. There shouldn’t be much of a surprise in them as we’ve had a ton of Fed Speak the past couple of weeks that laid bare the disparate opinions of the committee. Despite the lack of movement in yields the Dollar is strengthening against major crosses. The Yen is particularly weak, moving above ¥156/$ and drawing closer to the 1y high ~¥159.
Speaking of headlines, the BLS announced it will not publish the October 2025 Employment Situation report. Establishment survey data for October will be published with the November 2025 data, but Household survey data could not be collected for October due to the shutdown. The collection and processing period for November 2025 data will be extended. There will also not be a September JOLTS release.
Most Asian indices closed modestly lower. After getting throttled in the previous session the Nikkei was down 0.3%. As noted above the Yen continued to weaken, moving over ¥156 and yields continued to move higher. A JGB 20y auction was weak and put further upward pressure on yields. The government is expected to pass a stimulus package worth >$125B by the end of the week which will likely increase issuance of JGBs. BOJ Governor Ueda is expected to meet with the MOF today with markets keeping an eye out for currency intervention. Indonesia’s central bank held rates unchanged, as expected. European indices ended modestly lower. UK inflation came in a touch better than expected.
After a brief respite yesterday that included a reversal after trading below $90k, the pressure on bitcoin and the crypto complex continues today but the damage isn't bleeding into broader asset classes. Bitcoin is back below $90k, near yesterday’s lows. Crude is down ~2.5%. Last night’s API data showed an inventory build but that was countered by today’s EIA numbers that showed a draw. However, Politico reported that a framework peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could be completed by the end of the month. US natural gas prices are up 4% amidst colder weather forecasts. Metals are mostly higher, strengthening from earlier levels. Copper found support at its 50/100d ma. Ag is lower including soy despite news of large China purchases.
Earnings:
- Awaiting the Black Leather Jacket
- Major indexes around unchanged
- Leadership flips to Tech; Crypto getting smoked again
- Oil lower on peace prospects
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside The ICE House
- Episode 497: Athene CEO Grant Kvalheim on Addressing America's Growing Retirement Crisis
- November 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Number of Highly Qualified Refinance Candidates Reaches 3.5-Year High Amid Easing Mortgage Rates
- ETF Central: Portfolio Manager, Active Emerging Markets Debt at VanEck Eric Fine
- Market Story Lines
Yesterday the S&P 500 closed down 0.8% for its fourth straight loss. The index rallied back to unchanged before fading in the back half of the day. Tech was a drag despite another busy day of AI-related headlines, and there are plenty more today. And we’re not even talking about Nivida earnings after the close. The NYSE FANG+ index was down -1.4% and the ICE Semi fell -2.3%. However beyond Tech the losses weren’t widespread with the equal weight version of the index closing around unchanged as sector rotation was in play. Healthcare and Energy closed up ~0.5%, continuing recent outperformance. Most small and midcap indices ended with modest gains.
The S&P is up modestly today though off its intraday high, pulling back as the 50d ma ~6710 came within sight. Unlike yesterday, the equal-weight is lagging as tech-heavy sectors are out in front. Alphabet is a big reason why as the AltaVista search engine killer is up 3%. Semis are flipping yesterday’s performance with most of the group higher, including Nvidia up ~2% heading into its earnings. Small and midcaps are trading around unchanged. There’s a clear split between Growth and Value across market caps, and it’s interesting to see what’s holding up in light of another assault on the crypto complex.
Sectors are split between gains and losses. Energy, Real Estate and Staples are lagging; Energy pulled lower on crude’s weakness while Staples and Real Estate reverse yesterday’s relative outperformance. Target had clawed back to unchanged after starting lower following earnings this morning, but reversed lower around noon. Lowe’s (+5%) is among the best performers in the S&P today following its earnings.
Treasury yields are flat. A 20y auction today tailed by 0.2bp but markets didn’t react. FOMC minutes are out at 2pm. There shouldn’t be much of a surprise in them as we’ve had a ton of Fed Speak the past couple of weeks that laid bare the disparate opinions of the committee. Despite the lack of movement in yields the Dollar is strengthening against major crosses. The Yen is particularly weak, moving above ¥156/$ and drawing closer to the 1y high ~¥159.
- US 2yr +0bps to 3.58%, 5yr +0bps to 3.69%, 10yr +0bps to 4.11%, 30yr +0bps to 4.73%
- USD index: +$0.61 to $100.06
Speaking of headlines, the BLS announced it will not publish the October 2025 Employment Situation report. Establishment survey data for October will be published with the November 2025 data, but Household survey data could not be collected for October due to the shutdown. The collection and processing period for November 2025 data will be extended. There will also not be a September JOLTS release.
Most Asian indices closed modestly lower. After getting throttled in the previous session the Nikkei was down 0.3%. As noted above the Yen continued to weaken, moving over ¥156 and yields continued to move higher. A JGB 20y auction was weak and put further upward pressure on yields. The government is expected to pass a stimulus package worth >$125B by the end of the week which will likely increase issuance of JGBs. BOJ Governor Ueda is expected to meet with the MOF today with markets keeping an eye out for currency intervention. Indonesia’s central bank held rates unchanged, as expected. European indices ended modestly lower. UK inflation came in a touch better than expected.
After a brief respite yesterday that included a reversal after trading below $90k, the pressure on bitcoin and the crypto complex continues today but the damage isn't bleeding into broader asset classes. Bitcoin is back below $90k, near yesterday’s lows. Crude is down ~2.5%. Last night’s API data showed an inventory build but that was countered by today’s EIA numbers that showed a draw. However, Politico reported that a framework peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could be completed by the end of the month. US natural gas prices are up 4% amidst colder weather forecasts. Metals are mostly higher, strengthening from earlier levels. Copper found support at its 50/100d ma. Ag is lower including soy despite news of large China purchases.
Earnings:
- Pre-Market: BLSH, DY, LOW, LUXE, TGT, TJX, VVV, VIK
- After-Market: BV, CPA, EARN, NJR, NVDA, PANW, TBBB, UTI
- Pre-Market (Thrs): ATKR, BBWI, DAO, J, MMS, RERE, STG, TEN, VIPS, WMT, ZIM, ZKH
- US:
- Mortgage Apps: -2.3% w/w vs. prior +5.8%
- Refis: -7.3% vs. prior -3.4%
- 30yr Rate: 6.37% prior 6.34%
- Trade Balance: -$59.6B vs. -$61B cons. prior -$78.2B
- EIA Oil Inventories: -3.426M vs. -0.6M cons., prior 6.413M
- 2:00 FOMC Minutes
- Mortgage Apps: -2.3% w/w vs. prior +5.8%
- Global:
- Japan Machine Orders m.m: 4.2% vs. 2.5% cons., prior -0.9%
- UK Inflation: 0.4% / 3.6% vs. 0.4% / 3.6% cons., prior 0.0% / 3.8%
- Core Inflation m.m/y.y: 0.3% / 3.4% vs. 0.4% / 3.4% cons., prior 0.0% / 3.5%
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