STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 6/11/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Now THAT is how you buy the dip.
Good morning everyone, and especially OG Anunoby,
US futures are rallying this morning but its not even close to the rally we watched from the NY Knicks last night. We’ve witnessed crazy swings here on the trading floor but what we saw last night was on another level. Before the game, however we had to take care of some trading yesterday. The S&P 500 fell over 1.5%. The rotation away from tech (and AI-adjacent) continued, and we didn’t see other sectors step up and buffer the downside. The defensive Staples along with Energy were the only sectors higher. A better-than-feared CPI print remained still-elevated, as rates ended slightly higher. Oil also ended higher.
Equity futures rose throughout the overnight session like the Knick’s clawing back in last night’s game. We were near session highs despite the US and Iran once again exchanging fire overnight. President Trump then took to social media right before today’s data releases to say the US “will be hitting Iran…taking Karg Island and other oil infrastructure….and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.” Futures came off their highs, yields and oil rose.
Headline PPI was higher than expected though the prior month was revised lower. It was the highest reading since November 2022. Core was lower than expected and prior also revised lower. Final Demand Goods rose 2.8% m.m- the largest increase since the data was first published in Dec 2009. Energy’s 10.7% increase drove 80% of the change. Final Demand Services Rose 0.3%. The volatile Trade Services (ie margins) fell 1.1% (rose 1.3% prior month). Transportation and warehousing, a segment we’ve been highlighting, rose 2.6%. Jobless claims came in higher than expected and up from last week. It’s the third straight weekly increase for initial claims and was just below the YTD high, though overall remains relatively low.
Futures rose a bit after the data and yields continued to move up but have begun to retreat back towards prior levels.
The 2y is flat while the long-end is down 3bp. The US Dollar is higher and holding above 100.
ORCL (-9%) is trading lowering in the pre-market after reporting last night. EPS beat while revenue was inline and revenue guidance was reiterated and EPS raised to consensus-level. RPO’s rose $85B from last quarter to $638B and the AI/data center business (Infrastrcuture-as-a-Service, IasS) climbed 92%. The company expects to raise another ~$20B in FY27, on top of the $20B previously announced, but no additional debt in CY 2026. FY27 capex cash outlays are expected to be $70B, against expected revenue of $90B. Meanwhile, most other tech/AI names are trading higher, led by semi capital equipment makers and memory suppliers. In other AI news, OpenAI is considering “drastic” cuts to the prices it charges for tokens, in anticipation of similar cuts they expect by Anthropic, according to the WSJ. ETN announced it will combine its Mobility Group with DAN in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction that values the combined company ~$10B. Post-deal, ETN will have a more concentrated focus on Electrical and Aerospace businesses.
Major European indices are trading up, with Germany around flat and strength across sectors. There’s some weakness in software on the back of ORCL. The ECB raised its policy rate by 25bp as expected. Inflation expectations were revised higher and GDP lower. In Asia China finished lower. The Nikkei was fractionally higher. SoftBank was modestly lower while Kioxia gained 7%.
Commodities are mixed. Crypto is seeing a bounce. Crude was lower but moved up to around unchanged following Trump’s comments.
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): NAVN, ORCL, OXM, SFIX
Pre-Market: MH
After-Market: ADBE, LEN, RHI, ZDGE
Economic Data:
US:
Good morning everyone, and especially OG Anunoby,
US futures are rallying this morning but its not even close to the rally we watched from the NY Knicks last night. We’ve witnessed crazy swings here on the trading floor but what we saw last night was on another level. Before the game, however we had to take care of some trading yesterday. The S&P 500 fell over 1.5%. The rotation away from tech (and AI-adjacent) continued, and we didn’t see other sectors step up and buffer the downside. The defensive Staples along with Energy were the only sectors higher. A better-than-feared CPI print remained still-elevated, as rates ended slightly higher. Oil also ended higher.
Equity futures rose throughout the overnight session like the Knick’s clawing back in last night’s game. We were near session highs despite the US and Iran once again exchanging fire overnight. President Trump then took to social media right before today’s data releases to say the US “will be hitting Iran…taking Karg Island and other oil infrastructure….and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.” Futures came off their highs, yields and oil rose.
Headline PPI was higher than expected though the prior month was revised lower. It was the highest reading since November 2022. Core was lower than expected and prior also revised lower. Final Demand Goods rose 2.8% m.m- the largest increase since the data was first published in Dec 2009. Energy’s 10.7% increase drove 80% of the change. Final Demand Services Rose 0.3%. The volatile Trade Services (ie margins) fell 1.1% (rose 1.3% prior month). Transportation and warehousing, a segment we’ve been highlighting, rose 2.6%. Jobless claims came in higher than expected and up from last week. It’s the third straight weekly increase for initial claims and was just below the YTD high, though overall remains relatively low.
Futures rose a bit after the data and yields continued to move up but have begun to retreat back towards prior levels.
The 2y is flat while the long-end is down 3bp. The US Dollar is higher and holding above 100.
- US 2yr -0bps to 4.14%, 5yr -2bps to 4.27%, 10yr -3bps to 4.53%, 30yr -3bps to 5.01%
- USD index: +$0.14 to $100.07
ORCL (-9%) is trading lowering in the pre-market after reporting last night. EPS beat while revenue was inline and revenue guidance was reiterated and EPS raised to consensus-level. RPO’s rose $85B from last quarter to $638B and the AI/data center business (Infrastrcuture-as-a-Service, IasS) climbed 92%. The company expects to raise another ~$20B in FY27, on top of the $20B previously announced, but no additional debt in CY 2026. FY27 capex cash outlays are expected to be $70B, against expected revenue of $90B. Meanwhile, most other tech/AI names are trading higher, led by semi capital equipment makers and memory suppliers. In other AI news, OpenAI is considering “drastic” cuts to the prices it charges for tokens, in anticipation of similar cuts they expect by Anthropic, according to the WSJ. ETN announced it will combine its Mobility Group with DAN in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction that values the combined company ~$10B. Post-deal, ETN will have a more concentrated focus on Electrical and Aerospace businesses.
Major European indices are trading up, with Germany around flat and strength across sectors. There’s some weakness in software on the back of ORCL. The ECB raised its policy rate by 25bp as expected. Inflation expectations were revised higher and GDP lower. In Asia China finished lower. The Nikkei was fractionally higher. SoftBank was modestly lower while Kioxia gained 7%.
Commodities are mixed. Crypto is seeing a bounce. Crude was lower but moved up to around unchanged following Trump’s comments.
Earnings:
After-Market (Wed): NAVN, ORCL, OXM, SFIX
Pre-Market: MH
After-Market: ADBE, LEN, RHI, ZDGE
Economic Data:
US:
- PPI m.m / y.y: 1.1% / 6.5% vs 0.7% / 6.4% cons, prior 1.1% (revised down from 1.4%) / 5.7% (revised down from 6.0%)
- Core: 0.4% / 4.9% vs 0.5% / 5.4% cons, prior 0.7% (revised down from 1.0%) / 4.9% (revised down from 5.2%)
- Jobless Claims: 229K vs 219K cons, prior 225K
- Continuing Claims: 1795K vs 1780K cons, prior 1777K
- 10:30am EIA nat gas inventories
- 12:00pm WASDE ag report
- 1:00pm 30y auction
- 4:30pm Fed Balance sheet
- ECB rate decision: Hiked by 25bp as expected
- Korea Unemployment: 2.8% vs prior 2.8%
- Australia inflation expectations: 5.5% vs prior 5.6%
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