NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 05/29/25 a.o. 3:00 pm
DOW 42,170 (+71), S&P 500 5,905 (+16), Russell 2000 2,071 (+3), NYSE FANG+ 13,750 (-27), ICE Brent Crude $64.18/barrel (-$0.72), Gold $3,317/oz (+$22), Bitcoin ~106.2k (-1301)
Does the NY Court of International Trade’s jurisdiction extend to (trade) Purgatory? I guess it does for now. Nvidia’s Q1 results were expected to be today’s central storyline. While futures were higher after those results, they exploded to the upside shortly after 6:00 pm when the Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs instituted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal. The ruling covers the 10% baseline tariff, the reciprocal tariffs announced in the Rose Garden and the fentanyl-related tariffs put on China/Mexico/Canada. The sectoral tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum (and likely pharmaceuticals, lumber, chips if announced), which fall under Section 232, will remain in place. The court noted that, “we do not read IEEPA to delegate an unbounded tariff authority to the President,” and has given the administration ten days to issue any orders needed to cancel the tariffs.
The Justice Department quickly filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, asking that court to put the Trade court’s ruling on hold. The administration also said it could seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court.
And that’s not all. This afternoon, a second court, in a separate case, blocked the US government from collecting tariffs from two toy importers, though the decision is on hold to allow the government to appeal. This covers only those companies involved in the case.
S&P futures were up >1.5% overnight. However they began to steadily fall from those highs in the early morning hours and the cash markets opened up about 1%. The path lower continued and the S&P is currently up about 0.2% as investors try to figure out what this ultimately means for the White House’s agenda and reverberations across markets. The S&P is trying to hold 5900. The Dow is flat while the Russell 2000 and the S&P equal-weight are slightly higher.
Looking at the sectors, the rate-sensitive Real Estate and Utilities groups are the best performers today. Most sectors are flat to up 0.5%, with only Comm Services meaningfully lower (NFLX -2%, cable stocks lower as well).
Indices and Sectors:
Yields initially rose on the court decision last night but are now lower by 5bp across the curve. Expectations for rate cuts over the rest of the year have ticked up slightly, from about 45bp of cuts yesterday to 51bp of cuts currently. Today’s 7yr Treasury auction was strong with the 4.194% yield a 2.2bp stop-through compared to the when-issued. Yields ticked slightly lower after the results, but the 10yr had already dropped 10bp from its highs. The US Dollar Index is lower by about 0.6%, trying to hold 99.
Government Yields
Other Asset Classes:
Had it not been for the court ruling Nvidia would have been the story of the day. Despite the China headwinds the results were solid and showed off very strong Blackwell chip demand. The stock is up around 3% but off its highs. The FANG+ Index is actually down slightly however as most other components are lower. The ICE Semiconductor index is up about 0.4%.
Salesforce numbers were solid last night and the stock initially traded higher in the after-market, before losing steam and then opening lower. HP missed EPS estimates and lowered guidance, pressuring the stock. Retail earnings were mixed. Best Buy beat EPS estimates but lowered guidance on expected tariff impacts and is trading lower. Burlington and Kohl’s were both trading higher in the pre-market but are now down. Agilent’s earnings were well-received, helping the Life Science group trade higher. After the close we get some more tech and retail earnings, including Costco, Dell, Marvel and Ulta Beauty. Tomorrow is month-end and there could be some large pension fund rebalancing (equities for sale/Treasury buying). It’s also the MSCI Quarterly Index Rebalance.
Asian markets finished higher overnight, with the Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi up almost 2%. Tech, electronics and autos were among the top gainers as trade-exposed names were strong. Nvidia earnings and the Bank of Korea’s 25bp cut (expected) also helped lead stocks higher. European indices were flat to lower after starting the day higher- Germany’s DAX opened up about 1% but is now down about 0.4%.
Back to the tariff news. The NYSE MAC Desk is now actively tracking US tariff law experts on social media, who seem to be the same experts in infectious disease, industrial manufacturing and logistics, strangely. The news adds to the uncertainty and likely draws out what was a situation seemingly moving in the right direction, which bears out in the price action across markets today. White House Press Secretary Leavitt held a press conference around 1pm and it seemed like she covered everything from the recent court rulings to the Florida Panthers forecheck. On the trade news, negotiations between countries will continue and the administration expects to take their battle to the Supreme Court. She also took shots on the CBO’s estimates for the One Big Beautiful Bill’s fiscal impact (“shoddy assumptions”).
President Trump met with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today to discuss “economic developments including for growth, employment, and inflation”, according to the Fed’s press release. Powell did not discuss expectations for monetary policy, except to stress the Fed’s stance that policy will be dictated by incoming economic data. However, according to White House Press Secretary Leavitt, Trump took the opportunity to tell Powell it was a mistake not to lower rates. The press release also noted the importance of Fed independence. It’s notable on multiple fronts: Trump has repeatedly, and vehemently, expressed his view that the Fed should cut rates. At the last FOMC press conference Powell said he had not met with Trump yet during this term and there wasn’t a reason for him to ask for a meeting with the President. The request had to come from Trump.
Moving to economic data, Initial Jobless claims rose from last week and were above consensus (240K vs. 226K and 230K, respectively). Continuing claims ticked up as well. The numbers shouldn’t trigger alarms but leans into the dovish side of the ledger for the Fed. Q1 GDP was revised slightly higher but personal consumption was lowered from +1.8% to 1.2% while core PCE was lowered slightly.
Pending Home Sales fell 6.3% in April. According to National Association or Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, "Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market." Homebuilders were slightly positive despite the data.
Earnings:
After-Market: AEO, COO, COST, DELL, ESTC, GAP, MRVL, NTAP, PATH, ULTA, ZS
Economic Data:
- Courts make their appearance in the tariff storyline
- Equities well off overnight highs
- 8 sectors higher; Real Estate, Utilities leading; Comm Services lagging
- Treasury yields 5bp lower across the curve
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House 472: AXIS Capital CEO Vince Tizzio on Elevating Beyond Insurance Norms
- Inside the ICE Market StoryLines - 5/23
- Data Insights: The Early Bird Gets the Worm
Does the NY Court of International Trade’s jurisdiction extend to (trade) Purgatory? I guess it does for now. Nvidia’s Q1 results were expected to be today’s central storyline. While futures were higher after those results, they exploded to the upside shortly after 6:00 pm when the Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs instituted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal. The ruling covers the 10% baseline tariff, the reciprocal tariffs announced in the Rose Garden and the fentanyl-related tariffs put on China/Mexico/Canada. The sectoral tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum (and likely pharmaceuticals, lumber, chips if announced), which fall under Section 232, will remain in place. The court noted that, “we do not read IEEPA to delegate an unbounded tariff authority to the President,” and has given the administration ten days to issue any orders needed to cancel the tariffs.
The Justice Department quickly filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, asking that court to put the Trade court’s ruling on hold. The administration also said it could seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court.
And that’s not all. This afternoon, a second court, in a separate case, blocked the US government from collecting tariffs from two toy importers, though the decision is on hold to allow the government to appeal. This covers only those companies involved in the case.
S&P futures were up >1.5% overnight. However they began to steadily fall from those highs in the early morning hours and the cash markets opened up about 1%. The path lower continued and the S&P is currently up about 0.2% as investors try to figure out what this ultimately means for the White House’s agenda and reverberations across markets. The S&P is trying to hold 5900. The Dow is flat while the Russell 2000 and the S&P equal-weight are slightly higher.
Looking at the sectors, the rate-sensitive Real Estate and Utilities groups are the best performers today. Most sectors are flat to up 0.5%, with only Comm Services meaningfully lower (NFLX -2%, cable stocks lower as well).
Indices and Sectors:
Yields initially rose on the court decision last night but are now lower by 5bp across the curve. Expectations for rate cuts over the rest of the year have ticked up slightly, from about 45bp of cuts yesterday to 51bp of cuts currently. Today’s 7yr Treasury auction was strong with the 4.194% yield a 2.2bp stop-through compared to the when-issued. Yields ticked slightly lower after the results, but the 10yr had already dropped 10bp from its highs. The US Dollar Index is lower by about 0.6%, trying to hold 99.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -6bps to 3.94%, 5yr -7bps to 4.00%, 10yr -5bps to 4.43%, 30yr -5bps to 4.93%
- USD index: -$0.59 to $99.20
Other Asset Classes:
Had it not been for the court ruling Nvidia would have been the story of the day. Despite the China headwinds the results were solid and showed off very strong Blackwell chip demand. The stock is up around 3% but off its highs. The FANG+ Index is actually down slightly however as most other components are lower. The ICE Semiconductor index is up about 0.4%.
Salesforce numbers were solid last night and the stock initially traded higher in the after-market, before losing steam and then opening lower. HP missed EPS estimates and lowered guidance, pressuring the stock. Retail earnings were mixed. Best Buy beat EPS estimates but lowered guidance on expected tariff impacts and is trading lower. Burlington and Kohl’s were both trading higher in the pre-market but are now down. Agilent’s earnings were well-received, helping the Life Science group trade higher. After the close we get some more tech and retail earnings, including Costco, Dell, Marvel and Ulta Beauty. Tomorrow is month-end and there could be some large pension fund rebalancing (equities for sale/Treasury buying). It’s also the MSCI Quarterly Index Rebalance.
Asian markets finished higher overnight, with the Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi up almost 2%. Tech, electronics and autos were among the top gainers as trade-exposed names were strong. Nvidia earnings and the Bank of Korea’s 25bp cut (expected) also helped lead stocks higher. European indices were flat to lower after starting the day higher- Germany’s DAX opened up about 1% but is now down about 0.4%.
Back to the tariff news. The NYSE MAC Desk is now actively tracking US tariff law experts on social media, who seem to be the same experts in infectious disease, industrial manufacturing and logistics, strangely. The news adds to the uncertainty and likely draws out what was a situation seemingly moving in the right direction, which bears out in the price action across markets today. White House Press Secretary Leavitt held a press conference around 1pm and it seemed like she covered everything from the recent court rulings to the Florida Panthers forecheck. On the trade news, negotiations between countries will continue and the administration expects to take their battle to the Supreme Court. She also took shots on the CBO’s estimates for the One Big Beautiful Bill’s fiscal impact (“shoddy assumptions”).
President Trump met with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today to discuss “economic developments including for growth, employment, and inflation”, according to the Fed’s press release. Powell did not discuss expectations for monetary policy, except to stress the Fed’s stance that policy will be dictated by incoming economic data. However, according to White House Press Secretary Leavitt, Trump took the opportunity to tell Powell it was a mistake not to lower rates. The press release also noted the importance of Fed independence. It’s notable on multiple fronts: Trump has repeatedly, and vehemently, expressed his view that the Fed should cut rates. At the last FOMC press conference Powell said he had not met with Trump yet during this term and there wasn’t a reason for him to ask for a meeting with the President. The request had to come from Trump.
Moving to economic data, Initial Jobless claims rose from last week and were above consensus (240K vs. 226K and 230K, respectively). Continuing claims ticked up as well. The numbers shouldn’t trigger alarms but leans into the dovish side of the ledger for the Fed. Q1 GDP was revised slightly higher but personal consumption was lowered from +1.8% to 1.2% while core PCE was lowered slightly.
Pending Home Sales fell 6.3% in April. According to National Association or Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, "Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market." Homebuilders were slightly positive despite the data.
Earnings:
After-Market: AEO, COO, COST, DELL, ESTC, GAP, MRVL, NTAP, PATH, ULTA, ZS
Economic Data:
- US:
- Initial Claims: 240k vs. 230k cons., prior 226k
- Continuing Claims: 1.919ml vs. 1.890ml cons., prior 1.893ml
- Q1 GDP (revision): -0.2% prior -0.3%
- PCE/Core PCE: 3.6%/3.4%, prior 3.6%/3.5%
- Consumption: 1.2%, prior 1.8%
- Pending Home Sales April m/m: -6.3% vs. cons. -0.9%, prior 5.5%
- Natural Gas Inventories: 101Bcf vs. cons. 99Bcf, prior 120Bcf
- EIA Oil Inventories: -2.795M vs. 0.6M cons., prior 0.816M
- 1:00 7yr Auction: 4.194% vs. 4.216% when-issued
- 2:00 Fed Kugler
- 4:00 Fed Daly
- Initial Claims: 240k vs. 230k cons., prior 226k
- Global:
- South Korea Rate Decision: Cut by 25bps to 2.5%, in line
- Japan Consumer confidence: 32.8 vs. 31.8 cons., prior 31.2
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