Market Update
- Opening Night - a bit more optimism on peace proposals
- Headlines still carrying like fly balls at Coors Field
- Equities higher; Materials, Discretionary, small caps top the standings
- Oil, yields lower like a curve ball in the dirt
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside The ICE House
- Episode 520: ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt on Fighting Antisemitism and Impact of the TOV ETF
- ETF Central: Team Epiphany Founder & CEO Coltrane Curtis
- NYSE Research Insights: Fractional Reporting Early Findings
- ICE Mortgage Monitor Report: Prepayments Rise on Recent Refinance Activity and Serious Delinquencies Increase as Cure Rates Slow
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
The 2026 MLB Season steps to the plate tonight when the NY Yankees take on former cross-river neighbors the San Francisco Giants. Before we can enjoy that and really start getting into Spring though, the bases are full with more Iran headlines. Yesterday after a wave of often conflicting news, the S&P 500 ended modestly lower with tech and software coming under pressure again as Anthropic released a new solution that enables Claude to access a users computer to complete tasks, including assignment via your phone. The NYSE FANG+ fell 2% while the iShares Software ETF was down 4%, but semiconductors did move higher. Private credit also came back into focus after another round of redemptions, but the impacted stocks closed well off the lows. The S&P equal weight ended slightly higher with energy and materials leading to the upside. Small and midcap indices were up closer to 0.5%.
Shortly after the close there were reports that the US proposed a one-month ceasefire after sending a 15-pt plan to end the war to Iran. That triggered a rally in the futures right after the cash close and led to global equities moving higher overnight, oil prices falling and global yields settling down.
The optimism was tempered with a healthy dose of skepticism however as strikes on Iran continued and the US continued to move more military assets to the region. This morning S&P futures were trading up ~1%, right at the 200d moving average again, when the Fars News Agency said that Iran will not accept a ceasefire. Futures came off their highs but we opened up 0.6%, with small caps and the equal-weight again outperforming. In the afternoon, White House Press Secretary Levitt said there were "elements of truth" to the reports of a 15-point peace plan.
The lurching continued, including a sharp move lower and immediate bounce back on false headlines that the Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked. The latest headline I saw, which is true, I think, is from Israeli media, saying it’s Isreal’s assumption that Trump may announce a ceasefire by next Saturday. The S&P is up a little less than 1% and just below the 200d ma. The equal-weight is inline while small caps outperform. Beyond the Iran news flow, we got official word that the Trump-Xi meeting, postponed due to the outbreak of the Iran war, is now on for May 14-15.
Materials is leading today as miners ride the gains in metals and chemicals are benefiting from hopes of easing supply chains/input prices. Travel/leisure is leading Discretionary higher (Airlines also modestly higher) and Amazon is up almost 3%. Heatlhcare is also solidly higher, with the ICE Biotech Index up 3% after some announced M&A and the NYSE Pharma Index is up 2%. Energy is the lagging sector day as oil falls but is only modestly lower. Financials are also underperforming, weighed down by modest weakness in exchanges and capital markets and insurance. Credit names are mostly higher.
Semis and hardware names are higher (ICE Semis Index +2%) following ARM’S announcement that its manufacturing its own chips. Software is mixed. There’s also strength in some of the more thematic/higher beta areas. The space group is very strong today, with some names up north of 10%. NASA’s plans to build a moon base is likely driving a good chunk of those gains. Neoclouds are mostly higher (CRWV +5%). Nuclear and robotics names are as well.
Data was light today. Mortgage purchase applications fell 5% and refinances 10% according to the latest MBA report, while 30yr rates moved higher. Homebuilders are mixed. February import and export prices came in well ahead of estimates which along with the reversal in oil took the bid out of the Treasury market.
Brent crude is down 3% but at its highs of the day and back above $100. The EIA oil inventory report showed a build of 6.9M barrels, above consensus of flat inventories and lower than the API’s 2.3M addition last night. Precious metals are higher as gold and silver both try to regain their 100d ma (~$4600 / $72.50). Bitcoin and Ether are up about 1% and trading in tight ranges. The marketplace is still digesting the text of the CLARITY Act legislation released yesterday, with Circle seeing a modest bounce following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. The House Committee on Financial Services held a hearing today to discuss tokenization and the future of capital markets.
After yesterday’s very weak 2yr Treasury auction, today’s 5yr auction continued the developing trend, tailing by 1.4bp- the highest since 2024. Yields moved higher from their levels before the auction but are down a few bp on the day overall. The US Dollar Index is around unchanged.
- US 2yr -2bps to 3.88%, 5yr -2bps to 3.97%, 10yr -3bps to 4.33%, 30yr -3bps to 4.89%
- USD index: +$0.05 to $99.29
Major European indexes finished >1% higher, boosted by the decline in oil and natural gas, as well as fall in regional yields. The DAX saw solid gains despite the German Ifo Expectations reading taking a hit, falling by their most since the Ukraine invasion, though current conditions were unchanged. UK CPI was inline (core a bit higher), soothing inflation concerns momentarily and allowing yields to ease- gilts fell 10-15bp while German bunds dropped 4-6bp. Asian markets closed higher overnight. There were reports that multiple countries have been considering conservation measures/restrictions to offset the impact of oil shortages. The Nikkei was a standout overnight up ~3% with broad based gains. Softbank was up ~8% after Arm Holdings (ARM >10%) announced it would make its own CPU chip with Meta and OpenAI the first customers. The BOJ minutes signaled that more rate hikes were coming but that members wanted to move at a measured pace.
Earnings:
- After-Market: EPAC, FUL, JEF, KRMN, MLKN, WS
- Pre-Market (Thrs): AON, CMC, DBI, PONY, SVCL, SLI
- After-Market (Thrs): AGX, OXM
Economic Data:
US:
- Mortgage Apps: --5.4% vs prior +0.9%
- Refis: -14.6% vs -18.5% prior
- 30yr Rate: 6.43% prior 6.30%
- Import Prices: 1.3% vs. 0.5% cons, prior revised to 0.6% from 0.2%
- Export Prices: 1.5% vs. 0.5% cons, prior 0.6%
- API Oil Inventories (Tues AMC): 2.3M vs cons -1.3M, prior 6.6M
- EIA Oil Inventories: 6.926M vs 0.5M cons, prior 6.156M
- 5yr Auction
Global:
- Australia CPI: 0%/3.7% vs. 0%/3.8% cons., prior 0.4%/3.8%
- UK CPI w.w / y.y: 0.4% / 3.0% vs. 0.4% / 3% cons, prior -0.5% / 3.0%
- Core: 0.6% / 3.2% vs. 0.5% / 3.1% cons, prior -0.6% / 3.1%
- Germany Ifo Current Conditions: 86.7 vs prior 86.7
- Expectations: 86.0 vs prior 90.2
