STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 11/2/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
US equities were under pressure heading into the weekend with the S&P 500 falling nearly 2%. The index did bounce nearly 1% off the lows in the final hour of trade after holding above 7,500. There was broad based weakness, but tech accounted for much of the losses which pretty much summarizes the month of October. The S&P 500 500 ended the month down a modest 0.6% though the equal-weight was up nearly 5%. The NYSE 100 was down 8% while semis/memory indices were down >15%. Energy was the outperformer for the month up 14% while defensives (staples, utilities and healthcare) all ended the month up ~10%.
Futures have been trading modestly higher overnight helped by a pullback in oil. Tech stocks are bouncing modestly after last week’s shellacking despite the news flow leaning a bit negative. ICE Brent was holding just above last week’s lows ~$108 but took another leg lower Iran’s President said that the Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities related to negotiations and that “we will try to resolve the problem with dialogue”. Oil prices are now down >6% with ICE Brent trading ~$106.50. S&P futures are up ~0.5%, if we open at those levels that would put the cash index right around its 100d ma.
Yields are not really reacting much to the move lower in oil. There is some flattening of the curve with the 2yr up 2bps but 10/30yr yields down ~3bps. The USD index is modestly lower. Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing will be released after the open. The Treasury Refunding Announcement will be released this afternoon.
On the tech front, late Friday there were reports that OpenAI was downsizing its capital raise efforts and that Anthropic would not receive an investment grade rating. Much of the press over the weekend focused on the financing markets. Bloomberg reported that Oracle (-3%) has begun marketing $10B in debt and equity following last week’s announcement. Marvell confirmed it would acquire Lumentum for $115B in an all-stock transaction. There are also reports that SpaceX is negotiating with Boost Mobile to gain access to its spectrum which is weighing on wireless companies. After the close Apple and Palantir report.
Markets in Asia were mixed. The Nikkei fell modestly with tech stocks remaining under pressure after Kioxia (-15%) results disappointed. However, memory stocks in South Korea bounced leaving the index up ~2%. Hong Kong and China both rallied amidst reports that financial regulators support share buybacks to stabilize markets and are talking with banks and SOE’s. The NBS PMIs fell while the private Ratings Dog manufacturing survey came in better than expected.
Oil and natural gas prices in Europe are down >5%. Metals are bouncing back after getting hammered last week. Gold is up ~1.5% while Silver is up ~3%. Ag is mixed. After the Binance hack on Friday the firm has begun to allow withdrawals with reports suggesting >$4B has been process (AUM ~$170B). Prices have bounced modestly since Friday’s lows with Bitcoin ~78k and Ethereum ~2,300.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: EL, ETR, FOXA, L, MAR
After-Market: AAPL, BWX, CBT, CE, CL, CRBG, DOC, FANG, ESRT, EVER, FN, HUN, INSP, O, ON, PGR, PLTR, SBAC, UDR, VNO, VOYA, VRTX, WMB
Economic Data:
US:
US equities were under pressure heading into the weekend with the S&P 500 falling nearly 2%. The index did bounce nearly 1% off the lows in the final hour of trade after holding above 7,500. There was broad based weakness, but tech accounted for much of the losses which pretty much summarizes the month of October. The S&P 500 500 ended the month down a modest 0.6% though the equal-weight was up nearly 5%. The NYSE 100 was down 8% while semis/memory indices were down >15%. Energy was the outperformer for the month up 14% while defensives (staples, utilities and healthcare) all ended the month up ~10%.
Futures have been trading modestly higher overnight helped by a pullback in oil. Tech stocks are bouncing modestly after last week’s shellacking despite the news flow leaning a bit negative. ICE Brent was holding just above last week’s lows ~$108 but took another leg lower Iran’s President said that the Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities related to negotiations and that “we will try to resolve the problem with dialogue”. Oil prices are now down >6% with ICE Brent trading ~$106.50. S&P futures are up ~0.5%, if we open at those levels that would put the cash index right around its 100d ma.
Yields are not really reacting much to the move lower in oil. There is some flattening of the curve with the 2yr up 2bps but 10/30yr yields down ~3bps. The USD index is modestly lower. Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing will be released after the open. The Treasury Refunding Announcement will be released this afternoon.
- US 2yr +2bps to 4.62%, 5yr -0bps to 4.72%, 10yr -2bps to 4.91%, 30yr -4bps to 5.27%
- USD index: -$0.25 to $101.50
On the tech front, late Friday there were reports that OpenAI was downsizing its capital raise efforts and that Anthropic would not receive an investment grade rating. Much of the press over the weekend focused on the financing markets. Bloomberg reported that Oracle (-3%) has begun marketing $10B in debt and equity following last week’s announcement. Marvell confirmed it would acquire Lumentum for $115B in an all-stock transaction. There are also reports that SpaceX is negotiating with Boost Mobile to gain access to its spectrum which is weighing on wireless companies. After the close Apple and Palantir report.
Markets in Asia were mixed. The Nikkei fell modestly with tech stocks remaining under pressure after Kioxia (-15%) results disappointed. However, memory stocks in South Korea bounced leaving the index up ~2%. Hong Kong and China both rallied amidst reports that financial regulators support share buybacks to stabilize markets and are talking with banks and SOE’s. The NBS PMIs fell while the private Ratings Dog manufacturing survey came in better than expected.
Oil and natural gas prices in Europe are down >5%. Metals are bouncing back after getting hammered last week. Gold is up ~1.5% while Silver is up ~3%. Ag is mixed. After the Binance hack on Friday the firm has begun to allow withdrawals with reports suggesting >$4B has been process (AUM ~$170B). Prices have bounced modestly since Friday’s lows with Bitcoin ~78k and Ethereum ~2,300.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: EL, ETR, FOXA, L, MAR
After-Market: AAPL, BWX, CBT, CE, CL, CRBG, DOC, FANG, ESRT, EVER, FN, HUN, INSP, O, ON, PGR, PLTR, SBAC, UDR, VNO, VOYA, VRTX, WMB
Economic Data:
US:
- 9:45 S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI
- 10:00 ISM Manufacturing
- 11:00 Construction Spending
- 12:15 Fed Goolsbee
- 3:00 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
- China NBS Manufacturing/Services: 49.3/49.7 vs. 49.8/50.5 cons, prior 50.1/50.2
- China Rating Dog Manufacturing: 52 vs. 51.6 cons., prior 52
- Germany retail sales: -2% vs. 0.4% cons., prior 1.2%
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