Good morning and Happy Month/Quarter/Half end,
 
There was a flurry of headlines across the media and telecom space yesterday, while mega cap tech saw a return of outperformance to drive indexes higher. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, outpacing the equal-weight (+0.2%). Alphabet’s 5% gain provided a solid boost to its new home in the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it debuted in the index. It was relatively quiet overnight. We’re waiting for confirmation that a US-Iran meeting will be held today in Doha. President Trump said its on but Iran has denied any meeting were planned. US equity futures are flat to slightly lower, heading back toward overnight lows but really haven’t done much overnight. With month and quarter-end we could see elevated volatility today. As of now the S&P is looking at a 2% decline in June but 9% gain in 1H26. The equal-weight has outperformed in both time periods and small caps have significantly outperformed. The Russell 2000 is up over 20% YTD and gained 3% in June. Sector-wise, Healthcare found its mojo in June, rising to the top of the sector leaderboard (+8%). Industrials, Utilities and Financials rounded out the top with a mix of Defensive/yield proxies and Cyclicals. That strength took the sting away from Tech underperformance in the month.
 

 
 

 
 
Treasury yields are up 1bp across the curve while the US Dollar Index is up as well. The yen took a sharp move higher a little while ago, triggering talk of intervention but quickly returned to its prior level.
 

• US 2yr +1bps to 4.12%, 5yr +1bps to 4.16%, 10yr +1bps to 4.39%, 30yr +1bps to 4.88%
• USD index: +$0.22 to $101.10

 
Brent crude (August) is floating around unchanged, still below its 200d ma ~$75. It has fallen about 20% in June, helping equities. Natural gas is higher. Precious metals are up though gold is flat but off its sub $4K low. Metals declined alongside crude in June. Ag is mostly lower ahead of the big quarterly grain report later today. Bitcoin is down 3% at its lows today and below $60K. ETH is down similarly, below $1600. MSTR is giving back a lot of its gain yesterday, after the company announced several initiatives, including some to support the STRC perpetual preferred.
 

 
European indexes are up around 1%. France’s CAC is lagging a bit. Deutsche Telekom’s CEO continues to talk about a potential full merger with T-Mobile. CPIs moved lower across the continent. Equities were higher in June with the STOXX 600 up over 2%. ASML rose 20% while SAP fell 11% in the month. Oil stocks were down high single digits but banks saw solid gains. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9% overnight and 6% in June. Kioixa and Tokyo Electron rose over 40% in the month, while SoftBank fell over 20% (after two straight months of 40%+ gains). The yen hit 162/$, the first time since 1986 when Wally Backman was hitting and playing second for the Mets, and was met with the usual verbal warnings from officials. China was mixed as Shanghai rose while Hong Kong fell. Hong Kong’s decline came despite the Hang Seng Tech index rising almost 2% with Tencent rising 2% and SMIC adding 5%. Hong Kong fell 9% in June with Alibaba down ~25%. Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs ticked higher, hovering just above the expansion level of 50. China will be removing export restrictions on certain products like refined oil as supplies recover. I had to check several times but South Korea’s Kospi ended June flat. It began the month at ~8500 . traded as high as ~9400, as low as 7400, and closed right back at ~8500.
 

 
Earnings:

• After-Market (Mon): AVAV, CNXC
• Pre-Market: None
• After-Market: NKE, PRGS, STZ

 
Economic Data:
US:

• Case-Shiller Home Prices y.y: 1.1% vs 0.9% cons, prior 0.8%
• NHFA House Price Index m.m: -0.1% vs 0.2% cons, prior 0.1%
• 9:45am Chicago PMI
• 10:00am Consumer Confidence
• 10:00am JOLTS
• 10:30am Dallas Fed Services
• 12:00 pm Quarterly Grain Stocks
• 4:30pm API Crude inventories  

                                                                                                                               
Global:

• Japan May Industrial Production m.m: 0.5% vs 1.1% cons, prior 0.5%
• China Official Manufacturing June PMI: 50.3 vs 50.1 cons, prior 50.0
  • Non-manufacturing: 50.2 vs 49.9 cons, prior 50.1
• Germany Retail Sales (May) m.m / y.y: 1.1% / 1.8% vs -0.1% / 0.0% cons, prior -0.4% / -0.6%
• Germany Import Prices m.m: 0.7% vs 0.6% cons, prior 1.2%
• Germany Unemployment: 6.3% vs 6.3$ cons, prior 6.3%
• Germany CPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 2.3% vs 0.0% / 2.6% cons, prior -0.2% / 2.6% prior
• Italy CPI m.m / y.y: 0.0% / 3.0% vs 0.1% / 3.1% cons, prior 0.4% / 3.2%
• France CPI (June) m.m / y.y: -0.2% / 1.8% vs 0.0% / 2.1% cons, prior 0.1% /2.4%
• France PPI m.m / y.y: -0.3% / 3.0% vs prior -2.0% / 2.3%