NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update

DOW 37,753 (-1), S&P 500 5,015 (-7), Russell 2000 1,951 (+3), NYSE FANG+ 9,686 (-38), ICE Brent Crude $87.29/barrel (+$0.00), Gold $2,400/oz (+$12), Bitcoin ~63.4k (+2285)

• Opening gains fade for 4^th consecutive session
• Earnings in the spotlight
• Yields testing highs again
• 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors trading lower: Technology/Industrials leading to the downside, Defensives outperform
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
  • Data Insights: NYSE: Short-dated equity options survey results
  • Data Insights: Positive Signs in Housing, Mortgage Markets Ahead of Spring Homebuying Season
  • Inside the ICE House 411: CoreLogic's Selma Hepp Maps Mortgage Shifts and Housing Market Movements

MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday for the third consecutive session US equity markets opened higher only to close in the red. The S&P 500 ended the day down ~0.6% bringing WTD losses to 2%. At the lows the index got within a couple of points of the closely watched 5k level which would represent a 5% pullback from the all-time high. The weakness was most pronounced within tech, namely semi/semi-equipment stocks following the ASML results as the ICE Semiconductor index closed lower by 3% and is now down >10% from the early March highs.

Following another reasonably quiet overnight session, S&P futures were modestly higher ahead of the open again but after being burned over the last couple of days there seemed to be some more caution by dip buyers. Equities extended higher after the open but stalled out below yesterday’s high and have pulled back after the European close currently holding just above yesterday's low. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is down 10pts to 5,013 (-0.2%), the Dow is down 29pts to 37,724 (-0.1%), while the Russell 2k is up 3pts to 1,951 (+0.1%).
 
 
In the US claims data was pretty much unchanged from last week’s levels with initial claims at 212k and continuing claims at 1.812ml. The Philly Fed index surprisingly jumped to 15.5 from 3.2 last month, its highest level since 2022. New orders increased while employment ticked slightly lower remaining in negative territory. Prices paid jumped significantly to 23 from 3.7 which is still below the long-run average. Prices received only ticked up slightly potentially pointing to some margin compression (see Chart). In February, the Conference Board’s leading indicators turned positive for the first time in nearly two years however, that proved to be fleeting falling 0.3% in March. Existing home sales in March fell 4.3% m/m after moving higher over the last few months. The absolute level of sales is hovering ~4ml units which is the lowest levels going back to the early 2010’s impacted by a mix low inventories and high interest rates. DR Horton released earnings today and the results were solid with the company raising its 2024 revenue guidance. 
 


Yields were modestly lower overnight but have been moving higher throughout the day with the 2yr up ~4bps and testing 5% again something to keep an eye on from a sentiment perspective. The USD index is modestly higher continuing to trade ~$106.
 
Within the S&P 500 7 of 11 sectors are lower. Info tech is the worst performing sector with continued weakness in the semi stocks. The ICE Semiconductor index is down >1% again Taiwan Semi results looked solid and unlike ASML Q1 revenue guidance came in ahead of expectations. The stock is lower with some disappointment that they did not raise guidance and weaker Q2 margin guidance. Consumer discretionary is also down ~0.5% with pretty much all of that weakness coming from the mega-cap tech components. Travel and housing related stocks are trading well. Communication services is bucking that mega-cap trend with Alphabet and Google driving gains in the sector. This evening Netflix reports earnings. Most other sectors are trading on either side of unchanged.
 
Quickly looking ahead overnight there is inflation data in Japan and Germany. Procter and Gamble, American Express, Schlumberger and Regions Financial will be the earning’s highlights. Keep in mind tomorrow is options expiration which can add to volumes and volatility around the open/close.
 
Earnings:
Pre-Market: AAL, ALK, ALLY, APOG, BCBP, BHLB, BMI, BX, CHEK, CHMG, CMA, DHI, ELV, FOR, GPC, HOMB, HTLD, IRDM, KEY, MAN, MMC, OFG, OMH, POOL, RBCAA, SNA, STBA, TCBI, XRX
After-Market: BANF, BCML, BHB, BLX, CBNK, CZNC, FFIN, FVCB, GBCI, HIFS, HTH, INDB, ISRG, ISTR, MCB, MYFW, NFLX, NVOS, PFS, PINE, PPG, PVBC, SBFG, SEIC, SMID, SON, UNTY, VMI, WAFD, WAL, WSFS
Pre-Market: AXP, FITB, HBAN, LBAI, MCBS, PG, RF, SLB
 
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:

• US 2yr +3bps to 4.98%, 5yr +6bps to 4.68%, 10yr +3bps to 4.64%, 30yr +3bps to 4.74%
• USD index: +$0.19 to $105.95
• VIX: -0.21 to 18.00

Central Banks/Currencies:

• At IMF meeting finance heads of the US, S. Korea and Japan agree to “consult closely” related to FX markets - Reuters
• The PBOC reiterated its commitment to a stable Yuan - WSJ
• ECB acknowledges the conundrum facing global central banks suggesting that monetary policy cannot veer to far from the Fed - Bloomberg

Commodities:

• Iranian oil sales into China have surged highlighting the limitations of US sanctions - FT

Other:

• Most recent article discussing energy consumption of AI and strains this will put on the grid - FT

Economic Data:  

• US:
  • Initial Claims: 212k vs. 215k cons., prior revised to 215k from 211k
  • Continuing Claims: 1.812ml vs. 1.811ml cons. ,prior 1.817ml
  • Philly Fed:  15.5 vs. 2 cons,. prior 3.2
  • Existing Home Sales: 4.19ml vs. 4.15ml cons., prior 4.38ml
  • Leading Indicators: -0.3% vs. -0.1% cons,. prior 0.2%
• Global
  • Australia Employment: -6.6k vs. 5k cons,. prior 117.6k
  • Australia Unemployment: 3.8% vs. 3.9% cons., prior 3.7%