STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 9/22/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 51,857 (-192), S&P 500 7,769 (+5), Russell 2000 2,891 (+15), NYSE FANG+ 19,390 (+45), ICE Brent Crude $98.72/barrel (-$1.62), Gold $4,395/oz (+$12), Bitcoin ~86.6k (+22)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday saw sharp gains as mega cap tech and AI ripped. The S&P rose 1.5%, trading back within 1% of a new all-time high, while the equal-weight and Russell 2000 added ~0.5%. META led the rally (+11%) as its Muse AI agent saw a surge of demand, which filtered down the tech stack and especially chip names (ICE Semis +5%). On top of that oil fell for the 4th straight day, taking Brent crude below $100. The treasury curve bull-flattened as 10/30y fell ~5bp. Outside of equities, crypto “mooned” as the kids would say with Bitcoin taking out $85K as a short squeeze sent a wave of liquidations through the system.

Today is the last day of Summer as the arrival of the equinox in the Northern Hemisphere around 8:00 PT EST officially brings in Autumn. Speaking of arrivals, President Trump is in NYC and gave a wide-ranging speech at the UN this morning. He will be meeting with the leaders of UK, Japan and Ukraine, as well as Gulf Cooperation Council. Throughout the day he has suggested there has been some communication with Iran and continues to float the idea of a deal, which is quickly followed by threats of annihilation.

Overnight oil was trading higher and equity futures were under some pressure but that reversed after reports that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days and restart negotiations, contingent on the US easing military pressure. This along with reports that the Saudis restarted the East-West pipeline and will resume Red Sea exports from Yanbu sent oil prices lower and supported equities. Equities opened modestly higher but faded as oil prices and yields have moved off their lows. Major indices are trading on either side of unchanged, which considering yesterday’s rally is healthy action though breadth is disappointing.
In an otherwise quiet session the impact of Meta’s MUSE/AI agents are still being felt as there is chatter this could impact wealth management, traditional brokerage businesses, payments processors and online travel companies, SAAS-Pocalypse Part Deux. Within the S&P 500 financials are sharply lower down ~2%, the Bank of America Financials CEO Conference also started today though we haven’t seen any major updates. AI tech hardware stocks are outperforming again while software is trading lower. 
Performance within the S&P 500 is mixed. Outside of financials comm services are pulling back nearly 1% with telecom and media stocks under pressure. Consumer discretionary is modestly lower with travel tech stocks under pressure. Amazon is also trading down ~1.5% as it blocked Muse from its platform while Shopify is rallying sharply after embracing Agent Smith. AutoZone is moving higher after its earnings helping pulling other auto parts companies up with it. Housing related names also have a bid after Berkshire increased its stake in Lennar. Aerospace and defense stocks are weighing on the industrial sector while housing, construction and airlines outperform.

On the upside, materials is the best performing sector with broad based strength across chemicals, mining and packaging companies. Consumer staples is the only other sector with meaningful gains. 
Treasury yields were modestly lower overnight but have reversed with oil prices. The ADP weekly employment has been consistently improving since it troughed in late July increasing to 20k from 16.25k last week.  The Richmond Fed index came in below estimates with shipments and new orders falling though the employment component improved from last month. 
  • US 2yr -1bps to 4.74%, 5yr +0bps to 4.83%, 10yr +0bps to 4.96%, 30yr +0bps to 5.29%
  • USD index: +$0.18 to $100.34

As of now its lining up to the be the fifth straight decline for ICE Brent which tagged its rising 20d ma (~$99) at the overnight lows. There is a lot of chatter about banning diesel exports. US natural gas prices have moved sharply higher since the open on warmer weather forecasts and LNG flows.  European prices reversed overnight losses stemming the recent declines. Precious metals are on either side of unchanged while copper continues to head back toward ATH on tight supply and Chinese buying. Crypto is taking a pause after a sharp rally yesterday. Bitcoin surged past $85K and is trading a little under its highs ~$87.5K, while ETH is slightly lower than its $2800 high. CME announced Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures coming in October, pending regulatory review. SoFi and Mastercard announced stablecoin settlement of its debit credit cards is available through SoFi’s stablecoin, SoFiUSD.  
Asian indicies were modestly higher overnight but off their best levels, closing before oil weakened. Japan was closed for another holiday. In an interview yesterday USTR Jamieson Greer said the US and China continue to discuss an extension to the trade truce (expires Nov 10) but an agreement likely won’t be reached during Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting. Alibaba showed off its latest AI chip and is targeting 20GW of data center capacity by 2032. European markets closed slightly higher. Retail, travel and tech outperformed while Energy and Telecom lag. The UK’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey showed signs of improvement in the UK’s industrial sector. 
Global flash PMIs will be the main data tomorrow. President Xi is expected to arrive in the US ahead of Thursday's meeting. After the close Mark Zuckerberg will give the keynote at META Connect.
Earnings:
  • After-Market (Tues): KBH, WOR
  • Pre-Market: CBRL, CTAS, GIS, MANU, PAYX  
  • After-Market: FUL, SFIX
Economic Data:
US:
  • ADP weekly employment: 20.0K vs prior 16.75K
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing: -2 vs. 5 cons., prior 4
  • Fed speakers: Williams (10am), Jefferson (10:20am), Barkin (1:00pm)
  • 4:30pm API crude inventories
Global:

  • Taiwan Exports y.y: 71.4% vs prior 61.9%
  • UK CBI Industrial Trend Orders survey: -9 vs -34 cons, prior -25
  • Europe Consumer Confidence: -15.5 vs prior -16

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