Market Update

DOW 45,843 (-296), S&P 500 6,565 (-77), Russell 2000 2,321 (-27), NYSE FANG+ 15,830 (-285), ICE Brent Crude $63.26/barrel (-$0.25), Gold $4,067/oz (-$16), Bitcoin ~86.3k (-4217)

• Easy come easy go
• Nvidia beats surprising.....no one
• Jobs data better than feared adding to Fed uncertainty
• Crypto unwind continues 
• Options Expiration Tomorrow
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 497: Athene CEO Grant Kvalheim on Addressing America's Growing Retirement Crisis
  • November 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Number of Highly Qualified Refinance Candidates Reaches 3.5-Year High Amid Easing Mortgage Rates
  • ETF Central: Portfolio Manager, Active Emerging Markets Debt at VanEck Eric Fine
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday the S&P 500 broke a four-day losing streak with tech stocks bouncing modestly ahead of Nvidia earnings. Price action often helps to feed narratives and the recent pullback within the AI complex has been like Thanksgiving meal for the “AI bubble” narrative. In some ways this lowered the bar for Nvidia, and not surprisingly the company at the center of the AI related growth had another beat and raise quarter. The stock was trading up >5% in the pre-market pulling the AI complex and global markets higher with it. In this morning’s note we said, “the numbers coming in strong was the easy part, the real challenge will be in holding the gains.”
 
Equities were up >1% ahead of the open and extended to the upside after this morning’s jobs numbers. The long-delayed September jobs numbers were better than feared but there was also an uptick in the unemployment rate. 119k jobs were added to the economy driven with healthcare and social assistance and leisure and hospitality accounting for most of the gains while there were declines in transportation and warehousing and manufacturing. The household survey also showed an increase of 251k jobs but there were negative revisions and the increase in labor force (470k) caused the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.4%. Initial claims for the week ending 11/15 fell to 220k from 228k, but continuing claims increased to 1.974ml the highest level since November of 2021.  All in all, this continued to paint a similar picture as to before the shutdown a slowing in hiring but not a labor market that was falling off a cliff.




Yesterday the BLS announced that it would release the next jobs report on December 16^th, a week after the next Fed meeting, which along with the FOMC Minutes which contained some hawkish undertones caused the probabilities for a December rate cut to move under 50%. Today’s data which contained a little of something for both the doves and hawks seemed to murky the waters even further.  Interestingly, despite the stronger headline number yields moved modestly lower as traders seemed to focus on the increase in the unemployment rate.
 
The S&P 500 gapped up ~1.5% at the open trading back over its 50d moving average (6,715) and extending modestly higher and for a brief moment it felt like all of the recent weakness was forgotten. AI related stocks and more speculative pockets of the market were all moving higher except…the crypto complex, which started to fade shortly after the jobs report. Around the open the VIX had fallen back below 20 after holding in the mid 20’s for the last couple of days, highlighting how puckered up markets were ahead of this catalyst. Then shortly before 11:00 as we approached the European close - crypto took another leg lower, moving deeper into negative territory for the year, and Nvidia broke below the morning’s opening range which unleased a wave of selling and traders began reaching for protection sending the VIX back north of 25 again. Keep in mind tomorrow is options expiration which is likely adding to the volatility.

Equities tried to bounce after testing Tuesday's lows again but that bounce was short lived (like the time it took to format this note) and we are back near session lows. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is down 86pts to 6,556 (-1.3%), the Dow is down 388pts to 45,750 (-0.8%), while the Russell 2k is down 13pts to 2,335 (-0.5%). The breadth has been deteriorating throughout the day. Defensive and yield oriented sectors are outperforming. Consumer staples are the best performing sector helped by the defensive bid and after some solid retail earnings.

The S&P 500 is holding just above the key technical level we've been highlighting, ~6,550, which coincides with the 10/10 low and the rising 100d ma. 



Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow there is some impactful economic data overnight including global flash PMIs, Japan CPI and UK Retail sales. After the open the US flash PMIs will also be released along with the final U of Mich. Sentiment Survey. Tomorrow is also options expiration which should keep things interesting heading into the holiday week. 

Sectors/Other Asset Classes:


Economic Data:
US:

• September Nonfarm Payrolls: 119k vs. 50k cons., prior 22k
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.4% vs. 4.3% cons. prior 4.3%
  • Participation Rate: 62.4% prior 62.3%
  • Average Hourly Earnings: vs. 0.3% cons. prior 0.3%
• Philadelphia Fed: vs. -3.1 cons., prior -12.8
• Initial Claims: 220k prior 232k
• Continuing Claims: 1.974ml prior 1.957ml
• Existing Home Sales: 4.1ml vs. 4.08ml cons., prior 4.05ml

Global:

• China 1/5 LPR rates left unchanged at 3% and 3.5%
• Germany PPI: 0.1% vs. 0% cons. prior -0.1%