NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 03/20/2026 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning and Happy Friday. In about an hour and half it’ll be Spring, according to the universe’s official measurement and not the groundhog. The equinox coincides with today’s big triple-witching, with an estimated $5.7 trillion in notional options expiring. The stars are aligning, as they say.
Yesterday equities were under pressure for most of the day as the Iran conflict escalated to include attacks on major energy assets in Iran, Qatar and other Middle East nations. Short term rates spiked globally following a deluge of central bank meetings, further pressuring stocks. Late in the day Israeli PM Netanyahu said that Iran no longer has the ability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles- flagging a potential off-ramp or de-escalation- and that Israel will not target energy infrastructure going forward. The S&P, down 0.8% at the time, shot into positive territory briefly before pulling back to finish down 0.3%. Energy was the leading sector while Financials and Tech finished flat. Materials, Discretionary and Staples lagged. 2-year yields finished well off their highs, up 2bp after being as high as ~20bp.
Equity futures are down as we approach the open but off their lows, which occurred after Axios reported that the US was considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Wright said a few hours later that the US may remove sanctions on Iranian oil on tankers at sea, confirming earlier comments from the administration, in a bid to ease oil prices. Fed governors Bowman and Waller are speaking before the open as the blackout window ends and Fed Speak can be unleased following an eventful Fed meeting. FedEx is trading >5% higher in the pre-market following solid earnings last night. Management noted they haven’t seen any change in global demand since the start of the Iran war. SuperMicro is getting hit for 25% after the US charged the co-founder and several others with violating AI export controls. Prediction market Kalshi was reported to have raised $1B at a $22B valuation.
Treasury yields are on the move again, with the 2yr up 8bp and 30yr up 4. UK 2yr yields are up another 15bp. The Dollar is stronger on the major crosses.
European indexes are marginally higher but off their best levels, weakening along with US futures on the Axios Kharg article. Analysts are now pricing ECB rate hike as early as April in response to the energy price surge and the region is preparing for longer-term supply shock following the strikes on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure. The EU’s trade balance was lower than expected, as was Germany’s PPI for February, before the Iran hostilities began. Japan was closed for Vernal Equinox Day. Yesterday President Trump and PM Takaichi meet in D.C. and announced $73B of investments in the next round of the US-Japan trade partnership, which has been discussed previously. GE Vernova and Hitachi will invest up to $40 building small modular reactors in the US, and the remainder will be gas power plants for AI data centers. Both countries are also progressing their cooperation in rare earths policy. China was mostly lower. LPRs were left unchanged as expected and foreign direct investment has declined 6% YTD.
Brent crude is trading lower, stepping back from highs around $111 earlier in the morning. modestly higher this morning. Gas is also lower. Gold and silver are seeing slight bounces after a rough week for precious metals. Bitcoin and Ether are around flat with BTC trying to hold $70k, and ag is flat as well.
Earnings:
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday equities were under pressure for most of the day as the Iran conflict escalated to include attacks on major energy assets in Iran, Qatar and other Middle East nations. Short term rates spiked globally following a deluge of central bank meetings, further pressuring stocks. Late in the day Israeli PM Netanyahu said that Iran no longer has the ability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles- flagging a potential off-ramp or de-escalation- and that Israel will not target energy infrastructure going forward. The S&P, down 0.8% at the time, shot into positive territory briefly before pulling back to finish down 0.3%. Energy was the leading sector while Financials and Tech finished flat. Materials, Discretionary and Staples lagged. 2-year yields finished well off their highs, up 2bp after being as high as ~20bp.
Equity futures are down as we approach the open but off their lows, which occurred after Axios reported that the US was considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Wright said a few hours later that the US may remove sanctions on Iranian oil on tankers at sea, confirming earlier comments from the administration, in a bid to ease oil prices. Fed governors Bowman and Waller are speaking before the open as the blackout window ends and Fed Speak can be unleased following an eventful Fed meeting. FedEx is trading >5% higher in the pre-market following solid earnings last night. Management noted they haven’t seen any change in global demand since the start of the Iran war. SuperMicro is getting hit for 25% after the US charged the co-founder and several others with violating AI export controls. Prediction market Kalshi was reported to have raised $1B at a $22B valuation.
Treasury yields are on the move again, with the 2yr up 8bp and 30yr up 4. UK 2yr yields are up another 15bp. The Dollar is stronger on the major crosses.
- US 2yr +8bps to 3.88%, 5yr +8bps to 3.96%, 10yr +6bps to 4.31%, 30yr +4bps to 4.88%
- USD index: +$0.17 to $99.23
European indexes are marginally higher but off their best levels, weakening along with US futures on the Axios Kharg article. Analysts are now pricing ECB rate hike as early as April in response to the energy price surge and the region is preparing for longer-term supply shock following the strikes on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure. The EU’s trade balance was lower than expected, as was Germany’s PPI for February, before the Iran hostilities began. Japan was closed for Vernal Equinox Day. Yesterday President Trump and PM Takaichi meet in D.C. and announced $73B of investments in the next round of the US-Japan trade partnership, which has been discussed previously. GE Vernova and Hitachi will invest up to $40 building small modular reactors in the US, and the remainder will be gas power plants for AI data centers. Both countries are also progressing their cooperation in rare earths policy. China was mostly lower. LPRs were left unchanged as expected and foreign direct investment has declined 6% YTD.
Brent crude is trading lower, stepping back from highs around $111 earlier in the morning. modestly higher this morning. Gas is also lower. Gold and silver are seeing slight bounces after a rough week for precious metals. Bitcoin and Ether are around flat with BTC trying to hold $70k, and ag is flat as well.
Earnings:
- After-Market: AFDX, FDX, GEMI, PL, SCHL, TMC, UAMY, YSS
- Pre-Market: ZGN
Economic Data:
US:
- 1:00pm Rig Count
- China 1y/5y LPR: Unchanged as expected
- China FDI YTD (y.y): -5.7% vs prior -5.7%
- Germany PPI (Feb, y.y): -3.3% vs -2.7% cons, prior -3.0%
- Taiwan Export Orders y.y: 23.8% vs prior 60.1%
- EU Trade Balance: -€1.9B vs €12.8B cons, prior €11.2B
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