STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 8/14/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Happy Friday,
Yesterday was the most exciting day in what has been a pretty boring week thus far. It was the two-month anniversary of the Knicks Championship win, there was a full slate of NFL preseason games (26 days until the regular season starts), Kyle Schwarber hit multiple homeruns in the Field of Dreams game, it was my daughter’s birthday and US markets rallied with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high. Treasury yields pulled back after a slightly better than expected PPI reading helping to put a bid under equity markets. The S&P 500 closed up 0.7% briefly trading above 7,800. Tech outperformed with the NYSE 100 index up 1.2%. Memory stocks led the way after SanDisk provide updated guidance for 2028 - 2030, expecting high teen revenue growth while maintaining 80% margins. Hardware and chip stocks also traded well. Software ripped into the close after Reuters reported that Workday was in talks with private equity firm Silver Lake. Outside of tech yield-oriented sectors outperformed. The materials sector was down 0.7% with miners and ag chemical companies under pressure as commodities sold off.
It is another pretty quiet morning with US futures trading on either side of unchanged. The administration has now pivoted back to economic pressure with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying there will be unprecedented economic isolation with details to be released next week. Oil prices moved higher overnight but have since reversed course trading slightly lower. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, the largest drop since Feb. 2023. Ex-autos and the control group, which feeds into GDP, both fell as well. Two caveats within the data - gas stations fell 0.9% as oil prices declined and non-store retailers (internet sales) fell 2.2% which is some give back after Prime Day. There was minimal reaction to the data. Applied Materials is the most recent tech stock to have strong results yet selloff. Memory stocks are continuing to move higher in the pre-market (DRAM +>2.5%).
There is some steepening of the yield curve with 2yr yields down 2bps while 10/30yr yields are up 1-2bps. The USD index has been moving lower throughout the morning weakening against most crosses.
It was a mixed overnight session in Asia with tech heavy indices outperforming. Memory stocks in South Korea rallied leaving the index up >2% overnight and >10% for the week breaking a seven-week losing streak. In Japan the Nikkei closed up 0.6% bringing gains to nearly 5% for the week with tech outperformance. Nintendo was up nearly 7% after Pokémon Pokopia game sales topped 5ml since launching in March. Financials were under pressure. There continues to be speculation that the BOJ could raise rates at its meeting next month while officials continue to threaten further intervention should the Yen weaken further. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell >1% adding to the week’s losses. Financials were under pressure. JD.com fell ~10% after its earnings (which were out during the US hours yesterday). China new loan growth came in a touch below estimates. Australia closed down ~1% with weakness in miners. European indices are holding on to modest gains. Germany’s DAX is outperforming up nearly 1% as SAP is up ~5% on yesterday’s Workday news.
Oil prices have given up the overnight gains hovering around unchanged. Natural gas prices are modestly higher. The metals complex extended yesterday’s selloff overnight but has reversed with precious metals starting to turn positive as the USD weakens. Gold is up 0.2% to 4,430 up >1.5% from the overnight low. Ag is a touch higher. Crypto is pulling back. The SEC canceled today’s meeting on Crypto Regulation. Politico is reporting that the White House will host crypto and prediction market executives next Wednesday. Bitcoin is down ~1% trading back under 63k.
Earnings:
After-Market: AMAT, GEMI, GSAT, GLOB, MFP, ROST, YSS
Economic Data:
US:
Yesterday was the most exciting day in what has been a pretty boring week thus far. It was the two-month anniversary of the Knicks Championship win, there was a full slate of NFL preseason games (26 days until the regular season starts), Kyle Schwarber hit multiple homeruns in the Field of Dreams game, it was my daughter’s birthday and US markets rallied with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high. Treasury yields pulled back after a slightly better than expected PPI reading helping to put a bid under equity markets. The S&P 500 closed up 0.7% briefly trading above 7,800. Tech outperformed with the NYSE 100 index up 1.2%. Memory stocks led the way after SanDisk provide updated guidance for 2028 - 2030, expecting high teen revenue growth while maintaining 80% margins. Hardware and chip stocks also traded well. Software ripped into the close after Reuters reported that Workday was in talks with private equity firm Silver Lake. Outside of tech yield-oriented sectors outperformed. The materials sector was down 0.7% with miners and ag chemical companies under pressure as commodities sold off.
It is another pretty quiet morning with US futures trading on either side of unchanged. The administration has now pivoted back to economic pressure with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying there will be unprecedented economic isolation with details to be released next week. Oil prices moved higher overnight but have since reversed course trading slightly lower. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, the largest drop since Feb. 2023. Ex-autos and the control group, which feeds into GDP, both fell as well. Two caveats within the data - gas stations fell 0.9% as oil prices declined and non-store retailers (internet sales) fell 2.2% which is some give back after Prime Day. There was minimal reaction to the data. Applied Materials is the most recent tech stock to have strong results yet selloff. Memory stocks are continuing to move higher in the pre-market (DRAM +>2.5%).
There is some steepening of the yield curve with 2yr yields down 2bps while 10/30yr yields are up 1-2bps. The USD index has been moving lower throughout the morning weakening against most crosses.
- US 2yr -2bps to 4.12%, 5yr -0bps to 4.32%, 10yr +1bps to 4.65%, 30yr +2bps to 5.24%
- USD index: -$0.33 to $99.53
It was a mixed overnight session in Asia with tech heavy indices outperforming. Memory stocks in South Korea rallied leaving the index up >2% overnight and >10% for the week breaking a seven-week losing streak. In Japan the Nikkei closed up 0.6% bringing gains to nearly 5% for the week with tech outperformance. Nintendo was up nearly 7% after Pokémon Pokopia game sales topped 5ml since launching in March. Financials were under pressure. There continues to be speculation that the BOJ could raise rates at its meeting next month while officials continue to threaten further intervention should the Yen weaken further. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell >1% adding to the week’s losses. Financials were under pressure. JD.com fell ~10% after its earnings (which were out during the US hours yesterday). China new loan growth came in a touch below estimates. Australia closed down ~1% with weakness in miners. European indices are holding on to modest gains. Germany’s DAX is outperforming up nearly 1% as SAP is up ~5% on yesterday’s Workday news.
Oil prices have given up the overnight gains hovering around unchanged. Natural gas prices are modestly higher. The metals complex extended yesterday’s selloff overnight but has reversed with precious metals starting to turn positive as the USD weakens. Gold is up 0.2% to 4,430 up >1.5% from the overnight low. Ag is a touch higher. Crypto is pulling back. The SEC canceled today’s meeting on Crypto Regulation. Politico is reporting that the White House will host crypto and prediction market executives next Wednesday. Bitcoin is down ~1% trading back under 63k.
Earnings:
After-Market: AMAT, GEMI, GSAT, GLOB, MFP, ROST, YSS
Economic Data:
US:
- Retail Sales/ex-autos: -0.6%/-0.3% vs. 0.1%/0.2% cons., prior 0.2%/-0.2%
- 10:00 U of Mich. Sentiment
- 10:00 Business Inventories
- China Loan Growth: 5.1% vs. 5.3% cons., prior 5.3%
- Germany wholesale prices: 0.2% vs. 0.4% cons., prior -0.7%
- India WPI Inflation: 9.78% y/y vs. 9.95% cons., prior 9.87%
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