STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 4/24/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
It could have been an epic sports night in New York if not for the Knicks, but there is reason for optimism, even the Mets have a winning streak to build off of. Yesterday was a choppy session - markets were hovering around unchanged until1:00 when the flurry of headlines started to drop. Iranian moderates were being replaced in Parliament, there were reports of air strikes in Lebanon, ahead of the Israel negotiations in DC, and air defense systems in Tehran had reportedly been activated though that turned out to be gun fire related to pro-regime parades, you can’t make this stuff up. Those headlines sent the S&P 500 down ~100pts over a 45-minute window before markets bounced back recouping about 2/3rd of that drawdown.
Most major indices ended the session slightly lower and are down <0.5% for the week, pretty impressive within the context of the recent rally. One index that is bucking that trend is the NYSE Semiconductor index which is up >5% for the week (and nearly 50% YTD) riding a 17-day winning streak as the strength in the group has spread beyond the initial AI beneficiaries as the analog chip companies come to life as they see a boom in demand for data center components.
It looks like that semi-streak will continue today as Intel is up >20% in the pre-market after blowout numbers after the close. S&P futures were hovering around unchanged overnight but popped shortly after 7:00 am as there were reports that Pakistan could announce a resumption of negotiations and that Iran’s Foreign Minister is expected to arrive this evening. However, Iran has said this is just a stop on a tour to discuss regional developments (i.e. not for negotiations per se). S&P futures were up ~0.5% near the highs for the day/week but have cut those gains in half. ICE Brent initially fell ~$4 from the morning high trading down to ~$103.50 but is back ~$106.
The only economic data on the calendar is final U of Mich sentiment at 10:00. Treasury yields have pulled back a couple of basis points along with this morning’s headlines while the USD is also modestly lower. Next week could be Fed Chair Powell’s final FOMC meeting. A Semafor story suggests that the administration is considering an offramp of the DOJ investigation which could open the door for Warsh’s confirmation.
Government Yields
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. The Nikkei was up 1% helped by the tech strength. Inflation data showed an acceleration from last month ahead of the BOJ rate decision next week. Taiwan was a big outperformer up >3% after regulators changed the limits on ETF ownership of a single stock up to 25% from 10% sending local Taiwan Semi shares up 5%. India was down >1% as IT stocks are getting hit after Infosys earnings. European indices are slightly lower but have been clawing back to around unchanged after this morning’s headlines. The DAX is outperforming after strong earnings from SAP which is up >5%, we’ll see if that helps stabilize the software sector which got slammed yesterday after IBM/NOW earnings.
Metals are mostly lower adding to this week’s losses. Ag is mixed. Crypto has recouped overnight losses trading a touch higher this morning.
Earnings:
After-Market: ABCB, AMP, ASB, BKR, BYD, CHE, COLB, DLR, ERIE, GLPI, HIG, INTC, KN, KNSL, MXL, NEM, PFG, REXR, SAP, SLM, SSNC, VRSN
Pre-Market (Friday): CHTR, FHB, GNTX, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB
Economic Data:
US:
It could have been an epic sports night in New York if not for the Knicks, but there is reason for optimism, even the Mets have a winning streak to build off of. Yesterday was a choppy session - markets were hovering around unchanged until1:00 when the flurry of headlines started to drop. Iranian moderates were being replaced in Parliament, there were reports of air strikes in Lebanon, ahead of the Israel negotiations in DC, and air defense systems in Tehran had reportedly been activated though that turned out to be gun fire related to pro-regime parades, you can’t make this stuff up. Those headlines sent the S&P 500 down ~100pts over a 45-minute window before markets bounced back recouping about 2/3rd of that drawdown.
Most major indices ended the session slightly lower and are down <0.5% for the week, pretty impressive within the context of the recent rally. One index that is bucking that trend is the NYSE Semiconductor index which is up >5% for the week (and nearly 50% YTD) riding a 17-day winning streak as the strength in the group has spread beyond the initial AI beneficiaries as the analog chip companies come to life as they see a boom in demand for data center components.
It looks like that semi-streak will continue today as Intel is up >20% in the pre-market after blowout numbers after the close. S&P futures were hovering around unchanged overnight but popped shortly after 7:00 am as there were reports that Pakistan could announce a resumption of negotiations and that Iran’s Foreign Minister is expected to arrive this evening. However, Iran has said this is just a stop on a tour to discuss regional developments (i.e. not for negotiations per se). S&P futures were up ~0.5% near the highs for the day/week but have cut those gains in half. ICE Brent initially fell ~$4 from the morning high trading down to ~$103.50 but is back ~$106.
The only economic data on the calendar is final U of Mich sentiment at 10:00. Treasury yields have pulled back a couple of basis points along with this morning’s headlines while the USD is also modestly lower. Next week could be Fed Chair Powell’s final FOMC meeting. A Semafor story suggests that the administration is considering an offramp of the DOJ investigation which could open the door for Warsh’s confirmation.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -1bps to 3.83%, 5yr -1bps to 3.95%, 10yr -1bps to 4.32%, 30yr -0bps to 4.91%
- USD index: -$0.13 to $98.48
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. The Nikkei was up 1% helped by the tech strength. Inflation data showed an acceleration from last month ahead of the BOJ rate decision next week. Taiwan was a big outperformer up >3% after regulators changed the limits on ETF ownership of a single stock up to 25% from 10% sending local Taiwan Semi shares up 5%. India was down >1% as IT stocks are getting hit after Infosys earnings. European indices are slightly lower but have been clawing back to around unchanged after this morning’s headlines. The DAX is outperforming after strong earnings from SAP which is up >5%, we’ll see if that helps stabilize the software sector which got slammed yesterday after IBM/NOW earnings.
Metals are mostly lower adding to this week’s losses. Ag is mixed. Crypto has recouped overnight losses trading a touch higher this morning.
Earnings:
After-Market: ABCB, AMP, ASB, BKR, BYD, CHE, COLB, DLR, ERIE, GLPI, HIG, INTC, KN, KNSL, MXL, NEM, PFG, REXR, SAP, SLM, SSNC, VRSN
Pre-Market (Friday): CHTR, FHB, GNTX, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB
Economic Data:
US:
- 10:00 U of Mich Sentiment (final)
- 1:00 Baker Hughes
- Japan Inflation m.m/y.y: 0.4%/1.5% prior -0.2%/1.3%
- UK Retail Sales: 0.7% vs. 0.2% cons., prior -0.6%
- Germany Ifo Expectations: 83.3 vs. 85 cons., prior 85.9
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