Market Update
- Lots of headlines, little movement overall
- Energy leading, most sectors lower
- AI briefly back in focus after solid ORCL report
- IEA announces 400 million barrel release; Oil moves higher
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside The ICE House
- Episode 518: Cyera CEO Yotam Segev on Securing Enterprise Data in the Expanding AI Era
- ETF Central: Team Epiphany Founder & CEO Coltrane Curtis
- NYSE Research Insights: Fractional Reporting Early Findings
- March 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report: Q4 Lending Climbs to 3.5-Year High as Refinance Activity Accelerates and Servicer Retention Strengthens
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Iran headlines- some true, some not- continued to drive market action yesterday, including cross-asset volatility. Oil prices were under pressure heading into the afternoon trading as low as ~$81, amidst speculation about SPR releases and reports that the Navy had accompanied a ship through the Strait of Hormuz. That turned out to be fake news and there were reports of Iran mining the channel which sent prices right back up to ~$90. US equities traded inversely to oil. The S&P 500 rallied early but failed at the 100d ma ~6,840 before ending the session down 0.2%. Tech outperformed modestly while energy, financials and industrials led to the downside.
A slight reprieve came last night when Oracle, which sits at the center of the software vs hardware and AI spending debates, had very solid results after the close. Cloud revenue rose 41% (ex-FX) y/y and Remaining Performance Obligations (PROs) rose to $553B, up from $524B last quarter. Management noted that “These market dynamics enable Oracle to comfortably meet and likely exceed our revenue growth rate forecast for FY27 and beyond.” In complementary news, Nvidia announced a $2B investment in neo-data center operator Nebius Group.
With the solid Oracle earnings and uneventful CPI, the S&P 500 opened slightly higher and rose to it’s highest level, +0.4% just after the bell when Axios reported that President Trump said the war will end soon because there is practically nothing left to target in Iran, though he later said “we’re not finished yet.” However that move was faded and the index has mostly drifted lower since then. A report that the FBI has warned about Iran drone retaliation on the West Coast hit the tap in the afternoon and is pushing equites back towards the lows of the day. With all the headlines, the S&P 500 is only down 0.2%, trading just below its 100d ma (6770 vs ~6840), and is up 0.4% for the week. The equal-weight is lagging a bit today, down 0.4%, and small caps are down about 0.5%. Growth > Value.
Looking at the sectors, Energy is again the standout and the only one substantially higher. Tech and Comm Services (GOOG +1%, META flat) are trying to hold unchanged, and the rest of the sectors are lower. Short Software / Long Semis has been a leading trade since the summer. In late February software started to bounce vs semis, but that countertrend has reverted back with software weakness this week. Oracle’s ~10% gain isn’t lifting the rest of the group today. The IGV software ETF is down modestly today while the ICE Semis index is up over 1%. Overnight the FT reported that JP Morgan had marked down the value of loans being held as collateral by private credit groups and Bloomberg reported that Cliffwater’s $33B Private Credit Fund has received redemption requests for >7% of the fund. These headlines continue to keep the embers of software credit concerns smoldering.
Staples, Financials, Materials, Utilities and Real Estate are all down ~1%. Campbell’s is pressuring Staples after disappointing earnings and lowered guidance. Financials are down across the board as well, including Private Credit and BDCs. Materials are varied- ag/fertilizer/potash names are trading well while other chemical groups are mixed. Real Estate and Utilities are lower with the rise in yields.
Today’s CPI was basically on the screws, with headline and core of 2.4% / 2.5% (annual) inline with consensus. However it was heavily discounted given the new concerns around the Iran conflict. Treasury yields didn’t react too much immediately following the release. They were trading lower in the early morning hours but moved up as European yields jumped during that region’s session (gilts >10bp and have moved steadily higher today, currently up 5-7bp across the curve. Today's 10yr auction tailed by 0.7bp and followed yesterday’s weak 3yr auction. The long-end, already up 5-6bp before the auction, tacked on another bp afterward. The US Dollar is higher, back above 99 after retreating yesterday.
- US 2yr +5bps to 3.64%, 5yr +5bps to 3.79%, 10yr +6bps to 4.22%, 30yr +7bps to 4.86%
- USD index: +$0.40 to $99.21
Asian markets were mixed overnight. Japan and South Korea were both up ~1.5% while local markets in China/Hong Kong ended on either side of unchanged. Softbank popped 8% after Stargate partner Oracle’s strong print. India continued to be under pressure, falling nearly 2% amidst inflation concerns. European indices ended down about 1% and towards their lows, with Germany lagging at -1.6%. Defense contractor Rheinmetall fell 8% after reporting earnings despite record backlog, and banks across the continent were mostly lower. The Nikkei reported that Nippon Steel will raise steel prices 10%, its first price hike since March 2024.
Oil prices continue to swing on headlines. Reports that the IEA was considering a coordinated release of oil reserves began circulating as early as Monday. That plan seemed to be tempered by the potential that US warships would pry open the Strait of Hormuz by escorting tankers through, along with US backing insurance of those sailings as well as President Trump’s comments of the war coming to an end. However as the Hormuz situation hasn’t improved since then, and additional news about Iranian strikes and mine-laying operations swirled, the IEA announced this morning that its members will release 400M barrels from their strategic reserves, the largest in history- more than 2x the 182M barrel released at the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude sold off briefly on the official announcement but has since recovered back to the day’s high ~$93. With ~20M barrels normally flowing through the Strait each day, the release covers about 20 days of flow. Brent is currently up ~5% and nat gas is higher as well. Precious metals are lower. Silver is testing support at its 50d ma ~$85. Ag is mostly higher. Crypto is higher as well. Bitcoin (+2%) is looking to sustain a move above $70k.
Earnings:
- After-Market: FOSL, HPK, NTSK, NOA, SFIX, TLYS, PATH, VEL, WOOF, WLTH
- Pre-Market (Thrs): ALH, BBW, DKS, DG, SNBR, SEAT
- After-Market (Thrs): ADBE, GDOT, KFS, LEN, PEW, PD, RBRK, S, TTAN, ULTA, ZUMZ
US:
- CPI: 0.3% / 2.4% vs. 0.3% / 2.4% cons, prior 0.2% / 2.4%
- Core: 0.2% / 2.5% vs. 0.2% / 2.5% cons., prior 0.3% / 2.5%
- Mortgage apps: 7.8% vs prior 6.1%
- Refis: 0.5% vs prior 14.3%
- 30yr: 6.19% vs prior 6.09%
- EIA Crude Inventories: 3.824M vs cons 1.1M, prior 3.475M
- API Inventories (Tues AMC): -1.7M vs 1.4M cons, prior 5.6M
Global:
- Japan PPI m.m / y.y: -0.1% / 2.0% vs. 0.1% / 2.1% cons., prior 0.2% / 2.3%
- China Vehicles: -15.4% prior -3.2%
