NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 10/06/2025
DOW 46,716 (-42), S&P 500 6,745 (+29), Russell 2000 2,496 (+19), NYSE FANG+ 16,193 (+75), ICE Brent Crude $65.55/barrel (+$1.02), Gold $3,978/oz (+$69), Bitcoin ~125.5k (+3081)
Last week US equity markets continued to move higher. On Friday the S&P 500 closed essentially unchanged as it faded in the back half of the session, but it was just enough (<1pt) to extend the daily winning streak to six sessions. Healthcare was the big outperformer with the sector up nearly 7% after the Pfizer’s/White House announcement earlier in the week around drug pricing and the US R&D and manufacturing investments. The most favored nation framework and avoidance of tariffs were both better than feared. This triggered a sharp rally in the sector, that was the worst performing YTD coming into the week (the Yankees will need a similar kind of comeback). With the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown there was some extra time to debate the state of the AI trade as OpenAI announced a series of partnerships/deals sending the adjacent tech/infrastructure stocks higher.
Well, it’s a new week but the story remains the same. This morning OpenAI announced another partnership, this time with AMD to purchase GPUs to power 6gw of AI infrastructure. As part of the deal OpenAI will receive warrants to purchase up to 160ml shares, or nearly 10% of the company (recall Nvidia announced it would invest $100B in OpenAI as part of its recent partnership). AMD is surging up >25% while Nvidia and Broadcom are both around unchanged recouping modest losses in the pre-market. This wasn’t the only deal announced this morning, Fifth Third Bancorp announced it would acquire Comerica in an all-stock transaction for >$10B. This comes after a flurry of M&A transactions announced recently and is one of the first in the long-awaited regional bank consolidation. The SPDR Regional Bank ETF is trading up ~2%. US equities opened just under Friday’s high and pulled back modestly after the open but are back near session highs again. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 30pts to 6,746 (+0.5%), the Dow is down 27pts to 46,731 (-0.1%), while the Russell 2k is up 19pts to 2,496 (+0.8%).
There hasn’t been much movement as it relates to the government shutdown so the economic calendar will be sparse this week. There were a couple of surprising political events around the globe over the weekend which seem to be pulling Treasury yields modestly higher, currently up 2-5bps across the curve. This is also putting a bid in the USD index which is up ~0.5% trading just under $98, once again retesting the recent highs and the 100d ma.
Let’s take a second to talk about global markets. China, Taiwan and South Korea were all closed for holiday. Japan was the big outperformer with the Nikkei up nearly 5% after the surprise election of Sanae Takaichi to become the President of the LDP, and likely the next prime minister. She is viewed as pro-growth and a supporter of looser fiscal policy helping to drive gains, though it is causing weakness in the Yen and pushing local yields sharply higher particularly at the super long-end of the curve with 20-40yr yields up 8-15bps. She also has a pro-nuclear stance which has sent uranium and the small modular nuclear reactor stocks in the US sharply higher again. Elsewhere in Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng pulled back modestly as tech stocks gave back some of the recent rally. The other political surprise was in France as PM Lecornu resigned. Well maybe that shouldn’t have been too surprising, this is the fourth PM to resign in just over a year, but this was the shortest tenure on record lasting less than a month. French equities are under pressure with the CAC 40 down >1%. Local yields are moving higher with France’s 10yr up 8bps while the 10yr German Bund is up 1.5bps. The Euro is off ~0.5% versus the USD. Other major indices in the region recouped the initial losses ending around unchanged on the day.
Commodities are mostly higher. ICE Brent is up ~1% recouping some of last week’s losses after OPEC+ only raised its production quotas by 137k bpd below the 500k that was floated in the press last week, though there are reports that Saudi Arabia was pushing for larger increases. There was another Ukrainian strike on Russian energy infrastructure this morning. Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are taking place in Egypt. Natural gas is moving higher this morning with prices in Europe up >4%. Precious metals are on the move higher again with gold up >1% hitting another new all-time high quickly approaching 4k. Copper is pulling back modestly after jumping >6% last week. Ag is hovering around unchanged. The crypto complex is moving higher. Bitcoin is up ~2% hitting a new all-time high overnight breaking above 125k.
Within the S&P 500 8 of 11 sectors are trading higher but the Adv:Dec is about 1:1. Info tech is leading to the upside up just under 1%. OpenAI’s Developer Conference is just getting underway. Consumer discretionary is the next best performing sector but this pretty much all due to a 4% rally in Tesla ahead of product unveiling tomorrow. The breadth within the sector isn’t great Starbucks is down ~4% after announcing some store closures and layoffs over the weekend. Housing stocks continue to be under some pressure with the move higher in yields. That also seems to be weighing on some of the yield-oriented stocks. REITs and consumer staples are both trading lower though Utilities are modestly higher helped by the AI power demand narrative. Financials are around unchanged with the regional bank M&A having more of an impact in small/mid caps. Data providers have continued to be under pressure. Comm services are around unchanged with strength in the ad agencies being offset by weakness in telecom with growing concern about device subsidies ahead of earnings.
Tomorrow is setting up to be a pretty quiet day. The 30yr auction in Japan overnight could get some attention. In the US there aer a couple of earnings in the consumer staple sector (STZ/MKC). The New York Fed will release its Survey of Consumer Sentiment.
Other Asset Classes:
US:
- The rally continues
- More deal making
- Yields higher after some overseas political surprises
- Oil bounces modestly after smaller than expected production increase
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Last week US equity markets continued to move higher. On Friday the S&P 500 closed essentially unchanged as it faded in the back half of the session, but it was just enough (<1pt) to extend the daily winning streak to six sessions. Healthcare was the big outperformer with the sector up nearly 7% after the Pfizer’s/White House announcement earlier in the week around drug pricing and the US R&D and manufacturing investments. The most favored nation framework and avoidance of tariffs were both better than feared. This triggered a sharp rally in the sector, that was the worst performing YTD coming into the week (the Yankees will need a similar kind of comeback). With the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown there was some extra time to debate the state of the AI trade as OpenAI announced a series of partnerships/deals sending the adjacent tech/infrastructure stocks higher.
Well, it’s a new week but the story remains the same. This morning OpenAI announced another partnership, this time with AMD to purchase GPUs to power 6gw of AI infrastructure. As part of the deal OpenAI will receive warrants to purchase up to 160ml shares, or nearly 10% of the company (recall Nvidia announced it would invest $100B in OpenAI as part of its recent partnership). AMD is surging up >25% while Nvidia and Broadcom are both around unchanged recouping modest losses in the pre-market. This wasn’t the only deal announced this morning, Fifth Third Bancorp announced it would acquire Comerica in an all-stock transaction for >$10B. This comes after a flurry of M&A transactions announced recently and is one of the first in the long-awaited regional bank consolidation. The SPDR Regional Bank ETF is trading up ~2%. US equities opened just under Friday’s high and pulled back modestly after the open but are back near session highs again. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 30pts to 6,746 (+0.5%), the Dow is down 27pts to 46,731 (-0.1%), while the Russell 2k is up 19pts to 2,496 (+0.8%).
There hasn’t been much movement as it relates to the government shutdown so the economic calendar will be sparse this week. There were a couple of surprising political events around the globe over the weekend which seem to be pulling Treasury yields modestly higher, currently up 2-5bps across the curve. This is also putting a bid in the USD index which is up ~0.5% trading just under $98, once again retesting the recent highs and the 100d ma.
Let’s take a second to talk about global markets. China, Taiwan and South Korea were all closed for holiday. Japan was the big outperformer with the Nikkei up nearly 5% after the surprise election of Sanae Takaichi to become the President of the LDP, and likely the next prime minister. She is viewed as pro-growth and a supporter of looser fiscal policy helping to drive gains, though it is causing weakness in the Yen and pushing local yields sharply higher particularly at the super long-end of the curve with 20-40yr yields up 8-15bps. She also has a pro-nuclear stance which has sent uranium and the small modular nuclear reactor stocks in the US sharply higher again. Elsewhere in Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng pulled back modestly as tech stocks gave back some of the recent rally. The other political surprise was in France as PM Lecornu resigned. Well maybe that shouldn’t have been too surprising, this is the fourth PM to resign in just over a year, but this was the shortest tenure on record lasting less than a month. French equities are under pressure with the CAC 40 down >1%. Local yields are moving higher with France’s 10yr up 8bps while the 10yr German Bund is up 1.5bps. The Euro is off ~0.5% versus the USD. Other major indices in the region recouped the initial losses ending around unchanged on the day.
Commodities are mostly higher. ICE Brent is up ~1% recouping some of last week’s losses after OPEC+ only raised its production quotas by 137k bpd below the 500k that was floated in the press last week, though there are reports that Saudi Arabia was pushing for larger increases. There was another Ukrainian strike on Russian energy infrastructure this morning. Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are taking place in Egypt. Natural gas is moving higher this morning with prices in Europe up >4%. Precious metals are on the move higher again with gold up >1% hitting another new all-time high quickly approaching 4k. Copper is pulling back modestly after jumping >6% last week. Ag is hovering around unchanged. The crypto complex is moving higher. Bitcoin is up ~2% hitting a new all-time high overnight breaking above 125k.
Within the S&P 500 8 of 11 sectors are trading higher but the Adv:Dec is about 1:1. Info tech is leading to the upside up just under 1%. OpenAI’s Developer Conference is just getting underway. Consumer discretionary is the next best performing sector but this pretty much all due to a 4% rally in Tesla ahead of product unveiling tomorrow. The breadth within the sector isn’t great Starbucks is down ~4% after announcing some store closures and layoffs over the weekend. Housing stocks continue to be under some pressure with the move higher in yields. That also seems to be weighing on some of the yield-oriented stocks. REITs and consumer staples are both trading lower though Utilities are modestly higher helped by the AI power demand narrative. Financials are around unchanged with the regional bank M&A having more of an impact in small/mid caps. Data providers have continued to be under pressure. Comm services are around unchanged with strength in the ad agencies being offset by weakness in telecom with growing concern about device subsidies ahead of earnings.
Tomorrow is setting up to be a pretty quiet day. The 30yr auction in Japan overnight could get some attention. In the US there aer a couple of earnings in the consumer staple sector (STZ/MKC). The New York Fed will release its Survey of Consumer Sentiment.
Other Asset Classes:
- US 2yr +2bps to 3.60%, 5yr +3bps to 3.74%, 10yr +4bps to 4.16%, 30yr +5bps to 4.76%
- USD index: +$0.53 to $97.95
- VIX: +0.22 to 16.87
US:
- None
- EU Retail Sales: 0.1% vs. 0.1% cons,. prior -0.4%
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