STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 6/15/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)
DOW 51,901 (+699), S&P 500 7,571 (+140), Russell 2000 2,977 (+33), NYSE FANG+ 10,130 (+405), ICE Brent Crude $83.24/barrel (-$4.09), Gold $4,352/oz (+$113), Bitcoin ~66.8k (+3377)
MAC Desk Commentary:
It’s a beautiful day in NYC. The New York Knicks won the NBA championship over the weekend in a playoff run for the ages. It was their first title since Dark Side of the Moon was released and The Godfather (Part 1) won Best Picture. The S&P 500 was about 105 and it would be about 2 more years until the Fall of Saigon and South Vietnam surrendering. There were other notable events this weekend as well, including a dominant win by the men’s US World Cup team, the Carolina Hurricanes winning the Stanley Cup, and President Trump celebrating his 80th B-day watching an exciting UFC card on the White House lawn. This was hours after announcing that the US and Iran would sign a peace deal later this week. I don’t want to say that the Knicks becoming world champions led to the Strait of Hormuz reopening, but….

Press reports suggesting that agreement was in the works helped US equity markets move higher last week as oil prices fell for the third week in the last four and Treasury yields backed off despite the elevated inflation readings. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.6%. It was another very busy week of tech headlines, but the sector was mixed with semis rebounding sharply but software under pressure again. Beyond tech there was pretty broad-based strength with the equal-weight S&P 500 up nearly 2% while other small/midcap indices were up 2% - 4%.

With markets celebrating what looks like a firm, if interim, deal between the US and Iran and what was definitely a Knicks championship, equities are starting the week strongly. While full details remain to be seen, the deal was actually confirmed by Iran and involves full opening of the Strait of Hormuz after the formal signing on Friday as well as the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ships. A 60-day period for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program will begin, which could unlock billions of dollars of sanctioned Iranian cash. How Israel proceeds with its fighting in Lebanon (they launched attacks on Sunday night) remains a key unknown. And we still have lots of time between now and Friday.  

The S&P 500 is at session highs, up just under 2%. Tech and mega caps are leading the way, with the equal-weight up “only" 1% and the NYSE 100 climbing over 3%. The Russell is up over 1%, and there is notable strength in the higher risk/thematic groups compared to general weakness across the smaller cap financials. Quantum, nuclear, neoclouds and rare earth plays are all seeing strong gains. Space names are mixed, after getting smoked on Friday in the midst of the SpaceX IPO. 
7/11 sectors are higher. Oil’s decline is of course pressuring Energy. Staples, Healthcare and Real Estate (despite yields dropping) are modestly lower. Tech and Comm Services are leading given the tech/large cap strength. Markets are shrugging off news that the government issued an export control directive causing Anthropic to suspend access to its Fable and Mythos 5 models. Cybersecurity names are up modestly (0-3%). 
A Media Merger Monday is getting lost in the all the jubilation after Fox Corp announced it was buying ROKU in a $22B deal. FOX is down ~15% but META and GOOG strength is more than offsetting that weakness. Also, Paramount Skydance’s deal for Warner Bros. Discovery received regulatory approval.

Treasury yields are lower but have moved well-off their lowest levels. The 2yr was heading towards a test of 4.00% before reversing and heading back up towards 4.06%. Yields began to reverse higher after news of an Israeli drone strike in Lebanon. We’re anxiously awaiting new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index is also lower, but like yields has bounced off its lows.

  • US 2yr -3bps to 4.06%, 5yr -3bps to 4.18%, 10yr -2bps to 4.47%, 30yr -0bps to 4.97%
  • USD index: -$0.18 to $99.31
Global markets rallied overnight. European indices were mostly higher, with the DAX gaining 1% to place amongst the leaders. The FTSE was a laggard with declines in energy-linked names weighing on the index. Financials, autos and Industrials were broadly higher. Industrial Production in April rose 0.1% m.m, not robust by any stretch but holding up in the face of the Iran war. Capital Goods fell but Consumer Goods were mostly higher. Tech heavy indices in Asia outperformed with both the Kospi and Nikkei ending up >5%. In Japan, ahead of tonight’s BOJ rate decision, where a hike has been expected, Kioxia rose 12%, Samsung 10%, Tokyo Electron +7%. 
Today’s economic calendar was modest. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed continue business activity expansion in June, though the increase slowed versus May’s strong showing (5.7 vs 19.6). The pace of New Orders slowed from 22.7 to 3.5. Prices Paid and Received expanded at a slightly lower pace.  Expectations for New Orders six months ahead rose modestly. Industrial Production rose slightly in May, falling from April and missing estimates. The NAHB Housing Inex fell to 35 in June from 37. 
Brent crude has fallen below its 100d ma after tagging it on Friday’s weakness, and is trading at its lowest level since April 17, when it dropped on a round of optimistic but not quite accurate Iran news. The DOE reported that the SPR has fallen to its lowest level since 1983.

Precious metals are sharply higher on the oil and yield moves, with gold making a run back toward its 200d ma (~$4444). Silver gapped above its 200d ma this morning. Copper is modestly higher, helped by a weaker dollar, but off its best levels having tagged its 50dma last week.

Ag is modestly  higher and has moved to its best levels overall. Crypto is seeing strong gains as Bitcoin shot past $65K and is now back to $67K. Strategy added $100M more bitcoin according to a disclosure today. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called the Bitcoin bottom at ~$60K on Friday, if you’re keeping score. ETH jumped over 5% and regained $1800. Alt-coins are seeing some big gains, including privacy coin Zcash up over 25%. The coin saw a sizable losses earlier this month following the uncovering of a vulnerability that could lead to unlimited counterfeit tokens. 
Earnings:
  • After-Market: DOMO, PLAY
  • Pre-Market (Tues): WLY
  • After-Market (Tues): LZB   
Economic Data:
US:
  • Empire State Manufacturing: 5.70 vs cons 14.0, prior 19.6
  • Industrial Production May m.m: 0.1% vs. 0.3% cons, prior 0.9%
  • Capacity Utilization: 76.2% vs. 76.2% cons, prior 76.1%
  • NAHB Housing Market: 35 vs 36 cons, prior 37
Global:
  • Germany wholesale prices: -0.6% / 5.9% m.m / y.y vs. 0.8% cons, prior 2% / 6.3%
  • EU Industrial Production: 0.1% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.4%
  • India Inflation: 9.7% y/y vs. 9.1% cons., prior 8.3%
  • India Trade Balance: -$28.2B vs. -$27B cons., prior -$28.4
  • India Unemployment Rate: 5.5% vs. 5.3% cons., prior 5.2%
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 6/15/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
 
The sun is shining extra bright in NYC especially for a Monday morning commute after the New York Knicks won their first championship since the Dark Side of the Moon was released. It was a playoff run for the ages with the comeback kids winning every game in the NBA finals after overcoming double digit deficits. The weekend was full of notable events including a dominant win by the men’s US World Cup team, the Carolina Hurricanes winning the NHL championship, and President Trump celebrating his 80th B-day watching an exciting UFC card on the White House lawn hours after announcing that the US and Iran would sign a peace deal later this week.
 
Press reports suggesting that agreement was in the works helped US equity markets move higher last week as oil prices fell for the third week in the last four and Treasury yields backed off despite the elevated inflation readings. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.6%. It was another very busy week of tech headlines, but the sector was mixed with semis rebounding sharply +~10% however, software was under pressure again falling ~5%. Beyond tech there was pretty broad-based strength with the equal-weight S&P 500 up nearly 2% while other small/midcap indices were up 2% - 4%.
 
Markets are extending to the upside this morning as traders celebrate and the peace deal framework (and of course the Knicks win). US equity futures are up >1% with S&P futures within 0.5% of the all-time high.  
 

 
Oil prices are falling ~5% with ICE Brent breaking below its 100d ma ($86.30) currently trading ~$83 just above the April lows. On his own birthday, President Trump delivered a gift to his incoming Fed Chairman before his first policy meeting. Treasury yields are pulling back again as markets continue to reprice Fed/inflation expectations. Yields are down 2-5bps across the curve but are a couple of basis points off the overnight lows. Thus far markets are shrugging off news that the government issued an export control directive causing Anthropic to suspend access to its Fable and Mythos 5 models. The Dollar is also weaker. Just ahead of the open industrial production and capacity utilization will be released followed by the NAHB Housing Index at 10:00.
 
  • US 2yr -5bps to 4.04%, 5yr -4bps to 4.17%, 10yr -4bps to 4.45%, 30yr -2bps to 4.95%
  • USD index: -$0.26 to $99.23
 
A Media merger Monday is getting lost in the all the jubilation after News Corp announced it was buying ROKU in a $22B deal. Also, Paramount Skydance’s deal for Warner Bros. Discovery received regulatory approval.
 
Global markets rallied overnight. European indices are trading up around 1% except for the FTSE where sharp declines in energy-linked names weigh on the index. Financials and Industrials are broadly higher. Tech heavy indices in Asia outperformed with both the Kospi and Nikkei ending up >5%. In Japan, ahead of this week’s BOJ rate decision, Kioxia rose 12%, Samsung 10%, Tokyo Electron +7%.
 

 
Brent crude has fallen below its 100d ma after tagging it on Friday’s weakness. Precious metals are sharply higher on the oil and yield moves, with gold making a run back toward its 200d ma (~$4444). Copper is modestly higher. Ag is mixed with wheat and corn lower while soy is modestly higher. Crypto is seeing strong gains as Bitcoin breaks back above $65K and ETH  continues to march back towards $1800. Strategy added $100M more bitcoin according to a disclosure today.
 

 
 
Earnings:
  • After-Market: DOMO, PLAY        
  • Pre-Market (Tues): WLY
  • After-Market (Tues): LZB
Economic Data:
US:
  • Empire State Manufacturing: 5.70 vs cons 14.0, prior 19.6
  • 9:15 Industrial Production: vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.7%
  • 9:15 Capacity Utilization: vs. 76.2% cons, prior 76.1%
  • 10:00 NAHB Housing Market
Global:
  • Germany wholesale prices: -0.6%/5.9% m.m./y.y vs. 0.8% cons,. prior 2%/6.3%
  • EU Industrial Production: 0.1% vs. 0.3% cons., prior 0.4%
  • India Inflation: 9.7% y/y vs. 9.1% cons., prior 8.3%
  • India Trade Balance: -$28.2B vs. -$27B cons., prior -$28.4
  • India Unemployment Rate: 5.5% vs. 5.3% cons., prior 5.2%

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