Market Update

DOW 46,971 (+265), S&P 500 6,737 (+2), Russell 2000 2,492 (-8), NYSE FANG+ 16,397 (-17), ICE Brent Crude $61.33/barrel (+$0.32), Gold $4,120/oz (-$239), Bitcoin ~112.4k (+1812)

• Momentum shifts across assets (and Blue Jays/Mariners)
• Discretionary leading, Utilities; Comm Services lagging
• Precious metals sharply lower; Dollar stronger
• World Series winner gets to levy the tariff?
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 490: : Author Jon Levy on "Team Intelligence" and the Power of Trust, Collaboration and Group Potential
  • ICE First Look - October Mortgage Data: Falling Rates Lead to Best Homebuying Affordability in 2.5 Years
  • ETF Central: NYSE Director of Exchange Traded Products Maital Legum
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
S&P futures were giving back a modest portion of yesterday’s solid gains earlier this morning but clawed back to around unchanged by the Open. The S&P 500 gained 1% on Monday, trading near its highest level for most of the afternoon. Nine sectors posted 1% gains in a show of broad strength. The Russell added almost 2%. Apple led megacap strength as it gained 4% after a sell-side upgrade and strong iPhone sales data. Amazon was up ~2% despite AWS issues bringing much of the internet back to the dial-up years.  The KRE Regional Bank ETF was up ~3% as regional bank concerns subsided. The US-China rhetoric was ratcheted down (briefly) when President Trump expressed optimism about upcoming talks in South Korea with President Xi, and discussed plans to visit China early next year. He still held out the threat of 155% tariffs if a deal isn’t reached and danced around the topic of Taiwan. There has been some cautious commentary from Canada around progress for a trade deal. Despite the Blue Jays heading to the World Series, Trump things have not escalated things on the that trade front, yet.  

Today the S&P has been trading near yesterday’s close, in a range of 30 points and just off the record high. We’re currently around flat despite shifting momentum. Things were a little better before Trump casually through out the sound bite that “maybe the meeting with Xi won’t happen". The S&P fell by about 20 points but has regained most of that drop. The equal-weight is outperforming and there is an interesting dichotomy in small caps as the S&P 600 outperforms the Russell 2000.



Alphabet is dragging down Comm Services. The stock was trading modestly lower before OpenAI announced a livestream today at 1pm ET, where it unveiled its agentic browser, Atlas. That stock was down ~4% but has cut that by more than half. Warner Bros. Discovery is up >10% after confirming the initiation of a review of strategic alternatives, including a sale of all or pieces of the company. Utilities are also lagging as NRG, CEG and VST follow-through on yesterday’s weakness. Materials are also lagging with gold miners under pressure along with the commodity. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary is leading to the upside, led by GM popping 15% following solid earnings. Amazon is also helping as it trades +3% following a report from the NY Times that the company could avoid 600k additional hires as its automation efforts scale. Travel & Leisure and retail are trading higher. Home Builder PulteGroup has rallied after early session weakness after its earnings, currently around flat.



Companies continue to report solid results overall. A few tidbits from the reporters last night/this morning:

• PulteGroup noted that tariffs would increase costs by roughly $1,500/home starting in 2026.  
• Pentair said they were offsetting the impact of tariffs through increased prices and other mitigation strategies.
• Managed care provider Elevance Health discussed its deployment of AI, calling it “a strategic enabler” and “a huge opportunity to help support our productivity goals” while using it across customer service.

Momentum trades are unwinding across asset classes but it’s most pronounced in commodities. Precious metals are sharply lower (gold, silver, platinum and palladium down >5%). $4400 is quite the overhead resistance level for gold, which made another run at it earlier but then fell through $4200 on its pullback, now trading ~$4100. Silver is seeing even more pressure as it drops below $50. Some of the flows are heading into crypto as bitcoin headed back up to its 50d ma ~$114k, though its currently retreating back to $112k. Galaxy Digital is up 5% on earnings but was up around 10% earlier. Blockchain.com is reported to be looking into a public listing, potentially via SPAC. The Federal Reserve is holding a payments conference today and crypto will have a prominent presence. 

Brent crude was stabilizing around $61, having fallen from its late September high ~$70 and jumped earlier today following a report that the US will buy 1M barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However it has come back in from its highs. On the equity side of things momentum/retail plays like emerging data center plays, nuclear names and rare earth miners are under pressure. Haliburton is up 10% after results and announced an agreement with VoltaGrid to deploy distributed power generation to data centers, initially in the Middle East.



As credit concerns dissipate, BDCs are up 1-2% across the board and credit-linked equities are also trading modestly higher. Zions Bancorp reported after the close following its disclosure of loan write-downs last week that helped trigger the regional bank credit kerfuffle. Outside of what was previously disclosed, the report didn’t contain any more red flags.  

Treasury yields are down 1-3bp but the US Dollar Index is looking to make it three daily gains in a row after holding its 50/100d ma on Friday. The Yen and Swiss franc are particularly weaker against the Dollar today- the yen reacting to the new political regime as Sanae Takaichi was elected PM of Japan (the first woman to hold the position).

Other Asset Classes:

• US 2yr -1bps to 3.46%, 5yr -2bps to 3.56%, 10yr -3bps to 3.96%, 30yr -3bps to 4.54%
• USD index: +$0.34 to $98.70
• VIX: -0.24 to 17.99

The Nikkei finished up 0.3% overnight. Reports circulated that Takaichi could appoint Satsuki Katayama as finance minister, who could counter some of the expected dovish lean of the new government. Chinese markets closed higher, with optimistic comments by President Trump helping sentiment. Taiwan export orders rose 30.5% y/y in September, well ahead of estimates and August’s 19.5% growth. European indexes finished modestly higher and near their best levels. Europe and Ukraine are readying a 12-point plan to end the war, including a peace board chaired by President Trump.


 
Earnings/Corporate Updates:

• After-Market: ADC, COF, CB, EQT, ISRG, KREF, L'Oreal, MTDR, NBHC, NFLX, NPB, OMC, PMT, PFSI, SMBK, TXN, USNA, VALE, Vivendi, WAL, WCN, WFRD   
• Pre-Market (Wed): APH, AVY, Barclays, BKU, BG, BSX, CME, GEV, HLT, LII, LAD, MHO, MCO, NTRS, OFG, PRG, T, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TNL, UNF, UCB, VRT, WAB, WGO 
• After-Market: AA, ASGN, ASIC, BANC, BDN, CACI, CCS, CBAN, CLB, CVLG, CCI, ELS, EPRT, FAF, FE, GTY, GL, GGG, HLX, HXL, IBM, KMI, KNX, LCRX, LVS, LC, LOB, MOH, NLY, OII, OBK, ORLY, PKG, QS, RJF, RS, RHI, SAP, SON, SSB, STC, TCBX, TSLA, URI, VRE, WH

Economic Data:
US:

• 9am Federal Reserve Payments Innovation Conference
• Fed Speakers: Waller (Welcome and Closing Remarks at Payments conference)
• 4:30pm API Crude inventories

Global:

• China Fourth Plenum meeting
• Taiwan Export Orders y/y: 30.5% vs. 17.8% cons., prior 19.5%
• Canada CPI y.y: 2.4% vs. 2.3% cons, prior 1.9%