STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 2/26/26 (a/o 2:30)
DOW 49,216 (+412), S&P 500 6,887 (+50), Russell 2000 2,651 (+30), NYSE FANG+ 14,155 (+51), ICE Brent Crude $71.10/barrel (-$0.39), Gold $5,176/oz (-$50), Bitcoin ~64.3k (-257)
- High Expectations
- Violent rotations continue
- Iran negotiations adding to the volatility
- More private credit headlines
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 514: Transocean CEO Keelan Adamson on Rigs, Risk & the Future of Energy
- ETF Central: Former NFL Star & Champion Venture Partners' Marques Colston
- February 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report: Early-January Rate Decline Unlocks Refinance Opportunity for Nearly 5 Million Homeowners
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday most major US indices closed higher as some of the AI anxiety from earlier in the week faded. The S&P rallied 0.8% closing above its 50d for the first time since 2/11 putting the all-time high, around 7k, squarely in the cross hairs again. Mega-cap tech and software led to the upside ahead of a big evening of earnings. Financials which also got throttled on Monday bounced back while staples and commodity related sectors gave back some of the recent gains as the atoms vs. bits trade retraced. Sticking with that theme, crypto rallied sharply with Bitcoin bouncing over 10% from this week’s low.
Nvidia earnings was the main event after the close and you would be hard pressed to find anyone who didn’t think the company would put up strong results. The bigger questions for those of us not completely in the weeds were - In the short term - how would the market react to the report? And from a longer-term perspective - The big overarching question, how long will this spending cycle continue? The company beat estimates with quarterly revenues ~$68B bringing the annual run rate >$200B up from ~$60B in 2024, which is hard to conceptualize. We'll try to help, that increase is more than the total annual revenues of McDonalds, Nike and Starbucks combined or about the GDP of Kuwait, which accounts for nearly 5% of global oil production. I digress, Jensen Huang said, “the Chat GPT moment of agentic AI has arrived”, didn’t suggest any slowdown in demand/impact from competitive chips and pushed back on the market narrative around the demise of software. The stock was volatile in after-hours. It opened around unchanged today and came under pressure since which has triggered some weakness more broadly across the semi/memory stocks and other AI infrastructure stocks. The ICE Semiconductor index is down >3%.
The other side of that AI trade recently has been software and there were a couple of notable earnings in the sector as well with both Salesforce and Snowflake. Both stocks moved higher ahead of their reports yesterday and the results have helped with the stabilization across the sector which was initially catalyzed by the recent Anthropic event highlighting the technology compliments software doesn’t necessarily displace it. The mix of news is driving a reversal on both sides of this trade which was very stretched. See the Weekly Chart ratio chart of software/semis.
At an index level the S&P 500 has reversed all of yesterday’s gains with the weakness semis and some of the other mega-caps while the equal weight version of the index is modestly higher. Today’s Iran negotiations have caused some volatility in oil prices. There has been some mixed reporting as to how productive those meetings were so we’ll need to wait for an official download. ICE Brent has traded in ~5% intraday range on either side of unchanged currently trading slighyly higher.
Other than the tech earnings private credit remains a focal point but the financial sector more broadly is the best performing sector in the S&P 500. The most recent story in the private credit space is, Market Financial Solutions Ltd,. a UK mortgage-finance company that entered into insolvency amidst allegations of financial irregularities. Bloomberg reported that Jefferies, Barclays and Wells Fargo all had some exposure. In addition, there was another BDC which cut its dividend amidst some credit quality deterioration (FSK). On the flip side, Carlyle Group is trading higher after its Shareholder Update. Broadly banks, credit card companies and insurance stocks are higher. Financial data analytics firms that had been hit by the AI disruption concerns are bouncing back as well.
This morning’s initial claims ticked up modestly from last week to 212k from an upwardly revised 208k while continuing claims dropped to ~1.83ml from ~1.86ml. Treasuries and the USD index both rallied around the open after the first round of Iran headlines and have held the gains.
Government Yields
- US 2yr -3bps to 3.45%, 5yr -4bps to 3.59%, 10yr -3bps to 4.02%, 30yr -3bps to 4.67%
- USD index: +$0.18 to $97.78
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. South Korea continued to surge to the upside up nearly 4% bringing YTD gains up to nearly 50% as memory stocks continue to move higher after Nvidia earnings (likely some give back tonight). As expected, the Bank of Korea left rates unchanged at 2.5%. Japan ended modestly higher. The Hang Seng bucked the trend falling >1% with broad based weakness while the Shanghai Composite ended around unchanged. Chinese press is voicing some concern about the upcoming meeting scheduled between Presidents Trump/Xi suggesting not enough preparation has been done. European indices ended mostly higher but did pull back after the US open.
Commodities are mostly in the red. Natural gas prices continue to bleed lower. The metals complex is pulling back with gold down ~1% and silver off ~4% there were some technical issues overnight briefly halting trading. Ag is mixed. The crypto complex surged yesterday with Bitcoin trading back up to ~70k up >10% from this week’s low before pulling back. It pulled back to ~66.5k before bouncing over the last hour. The declining 20d ma is ~69.4k a level it has not traded above since 1/19.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Thrs): AAOI, ACA, ADSK, AES, AGO, AHR, ALTG, ARLO, AXIA, BCO, BCSF, BHR, BWMX, CABO, CLPR, CODI, COMP.EQ, CON, CPNG, CRWV, CTRA, CUBE, DELL, DUOL, DV, EBS, ESTC, EVTC, FIGS, FLUT, GLOB, GRND, GSBD, INTU, MAIN, MBI, MP, MSDL, MTZ, NATL, NEXA, NHI, NNI, NRDY, NTAP, PAR, RKT, RLJ, SG, SITC, SMR, SOLV, TPC, VTEX, WULF, XPOF, XYZ, ZS
- Pre-Market: ABR, AMR, DK, DKL, FRO, GLP, NIQ, NWN, RC, SHO, VIA
Economic Data:
US:
- Initial Claims: 212k vs. 215k cons., prior revised to 208k from 206k
- Continuing Claims: 1.833ml vs. 1.86ml cons., prior revised to 1.864ml from 1.869ml
Global:
- None
NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA
Published on 2/26/2026 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
Yesterday most major US indices closed higher as some of the AI anxiety from earlier in the week faded. Mega-cap tech and software led to the upside ahead of a big evening of earnings. Financials which also got throttled on Monday bounced back while staples and commodity related sectors gave back some of the recent gains as the atoms vs. bits trade retraced. The S&P closed up 0.8% closing above its 50d for the first time since 2/11 putting the all-time high ~7k squarely in the cross hairs again.
Not surprisingly after the close Nvidia put up strong results which topped estimates, but the stock is only trading slightly higher. Quarterly revenues were ~$68B bringing the annual run rate >$200B however, the bigger market question still remains about the longevity of the spending cycle. Jensen Huang said, “the Chat GPT moment of agentic AI has arrived” and pushed back on the market narrative around the demise of software. On the software side, Salesforce had solid quarterly results while guidance was largely inline with estimates. Yesterday the stock rallied sharply ahead of the print, it traded down ~$10 in the aftermarket last night but like Workday yesterday has rallied almost all the way back to unchanged. Snowflake also had solid results and is trading modestly higher in the premarket. Futures traded a touch lower overnight but are near session highs, trading slightly in the green.
This morning’s initial claims ticked up modestly from last week to 212k from an upwardly revised 208k while continuing claims dropped to ~1.83ml from ~1.86ml. Treasury yields are down 1-2bps ahead of a 7yr auction later this afternoon. The USD index is hovering around unchanged trading just under its 50/200d moving averages. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on bank supervision later this morning.
Government Yields
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. South Korea continued to surge to the upside up nearly 4% bringing YTD gains up to nearly 50% as memory stocks continue to move higher after Nvidia earnings. As expected, the Bank of Korea left rates unchanged at 2.5%. Japan ended modestly higher. The Hang Seng bucked the trend falling >1% with broad based weakness while the Shanghai Composite ended around unchanged. European indices are modestly higher with most major indices hitting new highs.
Commodities are mostly lower. Negotiations with Iran are ongoing while President Trump is reportedly speaking with President Zelinsky later today. ICE Brent fell ~2% overnight but is off the worst levels. Natural gas prices continue to bleed lower. The metals complex is pulling back with gold down ~1% and silver off ~4%. The correlation between software and crypto continued yesterday with the complex rallying sharply. Bitcoin traded back up to ~70k up >10% from this week’s low before pulling back. It is currently hovering around 68k the declining 20d ma is ~69.4k a level it has not traded above since 1/19.
.
Earnings:
US:
Yesterday most major US indices closed higher as some of the AI anxiety from earlier in the week faded. Mega-cap tech and software led to the upside ahead of a big evening of earnings. Financials which also got throttled on Monday bounced back while staples and commodity related sectors gave back some of the recent gains as the atoms vs. bits trade retraced. The S&P closed up 0.8% closing above its 50d for the first time since 2/11 putting the all-time high ~7k squarely in the cross hairs again.
Not surprisingly after the close Nvidia put up strong results which topped estimates, but the stock is only trading slightly higher. Quarterly revenues were ~$68B bringing the annual run rate >$200B however, the bigger market question still remains about the longevity of the spending cycle. Jensen Huang said, “the Chat GPT moment of agentic AI has arrived” and pushed back on the market narrative around the demise of software. On the software side, Salesforce had solid quarterly results while guidance was largely inline with estimates. Yesterday the stock rallied sharply ahead of the print, it traded down ~$10 in the aftermarket last night but like Workday yesterday has rallied almost all the way back to unchanged. Snowflake also had solid results and is trading modestly higher in the premarket. Futures traded a touch lower overnight but are near session highs, trading slightly in the green.
This morning’s initial claims ticked up modestly from last week to 212k from an upwardly revised 208k while continuing claims dropped to ~1.83ml from ~1.86ml. Treasury yields are down 1-2bps ahead of a 7yr auction later this afternoon. The USD index is hovering around unchanged trading just under its 50/200d moving averages. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on bank supervision later this morning.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +1bps to 3.48%, 5yr -0bps to 3.65%, 10yr +1bps to 4.09%, 30yr +0bps to 4.73%
- USD index: -$0.18 to $97.55
Markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight. South Korea continued to surge to the upside up nearly 4% bringing YTD gains up to nearly 50% as memory stocks continue to move higher after Nvidia earnings. As expected, the Bank of Korea left rates unchanged at 2.5%. Japan ended modestly higher. The Hang Seng bucked the trend falling >1% with broad based weakness while the Shanghai Composite ended around unchanged. European indices are modestly higher with most major indices hitting new highs.
Commodities are mostly lower. Negotiations with Iran are ongoing while President Trump is reportedly speaking with President Zelinsky later today. ICE Brent fell ~2% overnight but is off the worst levels. Natural gas prices continue to bleed lower. The metals complex is pulling back with gold down ~1% and silver off ~4%. The correlation between software and crypto continued yesterday with the complex rallying sharply. Bitcoin traded back up to ~70k up >10% from this week’s low before pulling back. It is currently hovering around 68k the declining 20d ma is ~69.4k a level it has not traded above since 1/19.
.
Earnings:
- After-Market: A, AGL, AHT, AI, ALKT, CAPL, CBZ, CHE, CHMI, CPK, CRGY, CRM, CSV, CWT, DBRG, EE, EFC, EPR, FIHL, FSK, GMRE, GNL, GPRK, GRBK, HBB, HCI, IBTA, IMAX, INN, IONQ, JOBY, KGS, KNTK, LB, LXU, MEG, MIAX, NGVT, NOG, NPKI, NSA, NTNX, NU, NVDA, ORA, OUT, PEB, PR, PRSU, PSTG, RCUS, RDW, SARO, SDRL, SM, SMA, SNOW, TDOC, TKO, TTD, TTI, UHS, UMH, USPH, VAC, VICI, VTOL, WHD, WSR, WTRG, XPER, XZO, ZIP, ZM, ZVIA
- Pre-Market (Thrs): Allianz, AMBP, AXA, BFLY, BIDU, BKSY, BLD, CARS, CCO, DCI, DCO, DQ, DSX, ECVT, EME, ENOV, FCN, FLOC, FOUR, GOLF, GTN, HGTY, HGV, HPP, HRL, HTZ, IBP, INSW, KBR, KOP, KRP, LNG, LOAR, LSEG, MCS, MRP, NCDL, NOMD, NREF, PEG, PENN, PRGO, PRKS, PRM, PRMB, PSBD, PZZA, Q, QBTS, SHAK, SJM, SRE, TDAY, TFX, TGLS, TWI, VIPS, VST, VYX, WD, WRBY, WWW
- After-Market (Thrs): AAOI, ACA, ADSK, AES, AGO, AHR, ALTG, ARLO, AXIA, BCO, BCSF, BHR, BWMX, CABO, CLPR, CODI, COMP.EQ, CON, CPNG, CRWV, CTRA, CUBE, DELL, DUOL, DV, EBS, ESTC, EVTC, FIGS, FLUT, GLOB, GRND, GSBD, INTU, MAIN, MBI, MP, MSDL, MTZ, NATL, NEXA, NHI, NNI, NRDY, NTAP, PAR, RKT, RLJ, SG, SITC, SMR, SOLV, TPC, VTEX, WULF, XPOF, XYZ, ZS
US:
- Initial Claims: 212k vs. 215k cons., prior revised to 208k from 206k
- Continuing Claims: 1.833ml vs. 1.86ml cons., prior revised to 1.864ml from 1.869ml
- 10:00 Fed Bowman
- 10:30 Nat Gas Inventories
- 11:00 KC Fed Index
- 1:00 7yr Auction
- South Korea leaves rates unchanged at 2.5%
By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates. Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.
Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.
© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates. For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.