Market Update

DOW 47,883 (+408), S&P 500 6,852 (+23), Russell 2000 2,504 (+39), NYSE FANG+ 16,517 (-142), ICE Brent Crude $62.84/barrel (+$0.39), Gold $4,228/oz (+$7), Bitcoin ~92.6k (+995) 

• Equities higher
• Mixed tech headlines 
• The K-Shaped Economy
• Crypto bounce continues
• Tree Lighting Eve
• Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
• Inside The ICE House
  • Episode 500: NYSE Texas President Bryan Daniel on Igniting Opportunity in the Lone Star State
  • November 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Number of Highly Qualified Refinance Candidates Reaches 3.5-Year High Amid Easing Mortgage Rates
  • ETF Central: Former CNBC Senior Markets Correspondent Bob Pisani
  • Market Story Lines

MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday for the second consecutive session equities traded in a pretty tight range as markets consolidate last week’s rally. It was a quiet day of macro data with investors continuing to digest holiday sales updates and corporate commentary at investor conferences. Major indices closed modestly higher with tech outperforming as Amazon’s re:Invent conference kicked off and ahead of another round of earnings. In addition, Bitcoin snapped back after the most recent round of forced liquidations on Monday trading back over 90k.
 
Futures were trading modestly higher overnight after a generally solid round of tech and retail earnings but there was a quick selloff just ahead of the open after The Information ran story that Microsoft was lowering internal AI software sales quotas. Markets have been on edge related to AI spending/adoption and this caused S&P futures to drop a quick 50pts, turning slightly negative. The tech losses were kept in check helped by strong earnings from Marvell Technologies and a positive pre-announcement from Microchip Technologies overnight. About an hour after the open Microsoft refuted that story further helping the tape with equities back at pre-market levels and approaching Friday’s highs. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 23pts to 6,852 (+0.3%), the Dow is up 402pts to 47,877 (+0.8%), while the Russell 2k is up 39pts to 2,504 (+1.6%).



The other main topic ahead of the open was the ADP Employment Report which came in below expectations. Private sector hiring fell by 32k, the fourth decline in the last six months. Job losses were completely driven by small businesses (-120k) while medium/large businesses added to headcount. Hiring at the largest companies has remained positive in each of the last six months averaging just under 50k jobs. This is yet another example of the K-shaped economy. Within the survey wages continued to moderate. After the open ISM Services came in about in line with expectations. The underlying metrics were mixed. New orders fell to 52.9 from 56.2. Employment improved slightly but remained in contractionary territory. Prices pulled back to 65.4 from 70 but is notably back below its 12-month average of 66.1. There has been a little bit of volatility in Treasuries around the economic data releases, but it is not having a meaningful impact on expectations for monetary policy. Yields are settling in down ~3bps across the curve while the USD index continues its recent pullback down ~0.5%.
 
Global markets were mostly higher overnight. The Nikkei closed up ~1% helped by strength in tech. Local yields continued to move higher with 10yr yields hitting the highest level in 20 years approaching 2%. Yesterday’s 10yr auction was better than feared but the focus has now shifted to the 30yr auction this evening. Local markets in China bucked the overall trend with the Hang Seng falling >1% while the Shanghai Composite was down 0.5%. Services PMIs pulled back for the third consecutive month. European indices ended off the best levels ending the session mixed. Final services PMIs across the region were revised higher. ECB President Lagarde said the outlook is more balanced, but uncertainty remains.  





Commodities are mostly higher. Oil prices are up ~1% as the Ukraine peace talks seem to have hit a sticking point again around territorial concessions. Today’s inventory data was delayed for technical reasons. As the weather gets colder US natural gas prices continue to move higher approaching $5. The metals complex is mixed with precious metals giving back early gains. Copper is up nearly 3%. Crypto is extending to the upside Bitcoin is up 1.5% trading ~93k, trying to break above its 20d ma (93.7k) for the first time since late October.



Within the S&P 500 8 of 11 sectors are higher. Value oriented sectors are outperforming growth.  Yield oriented sectors continue to underperform. Utilities are down nearly 1% and almost 4% for the week. Energy is outperforming up nearly 2% while financials are also up >1%. The retail earnings were solid and all of the stocks are now trading higher (AEO, DLTR, M).  Within consumer discretionary housing related and apparel companies are outperforming.
 


Quickly looking ahead to tomorrow it will be a very festive day here at the NYSE with our 102^nd Annual Tree Lighting. If you’re in lower Manhattan come celebrate with us. Overnight there will be some focus on the 30yr auction in Japan given the recent move higher in rates. There is another round of tech earnings including Salesforce and Snowflake. Retail earnings will also get some attention including Build-A-Bear which hosts one of the fan faves outside of the exchange tomorrow. This weekend the MAC Desk did its part to support their earnings when I took my niece Raegan to get a Posh Penguin for her 7^th birthday.
 
Economic Data:
US:

• Mortgage Apps: -1.4% w.w prior 0.2%
  • 30yr Rate: 6.32% prior 6.4%
• ADP: -32k vs. 5k cons,. prior 42k
• Pay Job stayers: 4.4% prior 4.5%
• Pay Job changers: 6.3% prior 6.7%
• Import/Export Prices (September): vs. 0.1%/0.1% cons., prior 0.3%/0.3%
• 9:15 Industrial Production (Sep): 0.1% prior -0.3%
• 9:15 Capacity Utilization (Sep):  75.9% prior 75.9%
• ISM Services: 52.6 prior 52.4

Global:

• China Rating Dog Services: 52.1 vs. 52 cons,. prior 52.6
• Australia GDP: 0.4% vs. 0.7% cons., prior 0.7%
• EU PPI: 0.1% vs. 0.1% cons, prior -0.1%
• EU Final Services PMI: 53.6 prior 53
• Germany Final Services PMI: 53.1 prior 52.7
• France Final Services PMI: 51.4 prior 50.8
• UK Final Servcies 51.3 prior 50.5