STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/21/26 (a/o 2:00 pm)
DOW 50,361 (+352), S&P 500 7,452 (+19), Russell 2000 2,844 (+26), NYSE FANG+ 9,048 (+51), ICE Brent Crude $102.83/barrel (-$2.19), Gold $4,551/oz (+$15), Bitcoin ~77.7k (+259)
- Equities reverse early weakness on Iran hopes, again
- 9 sectors higher, only Energy and Staples lower
- Crude, rates fall; metals, crypto higher
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
- Inside the ICE House
- Episode 533: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster on The Power of Investing and Expanding Access
- ETF Central: Craft & Capital President Chris Sullivan
- NYSE Research Insights: Behind the Record Volumes: A Hidden Opportunity
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: April Home Prices Posted Strongest Monthly Gain in Nearly Two Years
- Market Story Lines
MAC Desk Commentary:
Positive Iran headlines and an historic Knicks comeback win helped push global yields and oil lower and equities higher yesterday. The S&P 500 and the equal-weight gained 1% while small caps saw the best gains as the Russell 2000 added over 2%. Yields fell ~10bp across the curve, oil declined >5% and precious metals were higher. Consumer Discretionary was the leading sector, benefiting from the oil and yield moves and Tech outperformed as well with semi infrastructure names strong, outperforming software. This was a prelude to the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings after the close. As expected the company beat estimates and reported robust growth metrics: Data Center revenue +77%, Networking +199%. Next Q revenue guidance was ahead of the Street as well. They also announced an additional $80B in buyback authorization and increased the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25.
A few more tidbits:
- Vera Rubin is on track to begin commercial shipments in 2H.
- The company rolled out a new reporting framework to highlight the evolution of growth drivers
- “The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed”.
- “Demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand at an unprecedented pace.”
Despite the fantastic numbers the stock’s price action was subdued- a trend we’ve seen play out over the past several earnings reports from NVDA. The stock is down 1% today.
The positive Iran commentary from yesterday failed to carry over to today’s session, at least in the beginning. The S&P 500 opened down 0.3% after reported comments from Iran’s supreme leader that weapons-grade uranium must stay in Iran pushed futures to their lows earlier in the morning. Just after the open, Al Jezeera reported Iranian officials refuted the earlier uranium story. Equities rose but it was fleeting. After a few hours of the S&P trading between ~7390-7410, news that a final draft of the US-Iran agreement had been reached, with a formal announcement forthcoming. Yields and oil fell and the S&P erased the weakness to climb to its current level and day’s high ~7455 (+0.3%). The equal-weight is outperforming slightly while small caps lead (R2K +1%).
Consumer Discretionary is again a leader with retail names mostly higher on solid earnings and travel/leisure and homebuilders higher as oil and rates decline. Materials is also strong, led by miners, chemicals and packaging names. Utilities are broadly higher. The IPP’s are adding to yesterday’s gains on the PJM update. Media stocks are leading Comm Services. Energy and Consumer Staples are lagging with oil declining and more cyclical/growth sectors seeing the bigger gains on the agreement news.
In non-NVDA earnings news:
- Software maker Intuit is down 20% after announcing earnings and confirmed a 17% workforce reduction. Top and bottom beat and guidance was raised but Turbo Tax missed, re-igniting the AI disruption fears and pulling other software names lower.
- Consumer/retail names are generally trading well with RL and AAP up over 10% while URBN and ELF also trade higher. Both ELF and grocer KR said they would be reducing prices on their products. On the other hand WMT is down sharply and unlike ELF and KR warned of raising prices to pass along rising fuel costs.
- DE is trading lower despite a solid print as guidance was left unchanged.
- In other news, a big REIT merger was announced between EQR and AVB for an EV of ~69B. Quantum stocks are jumping after the US government announced $2B in grants to multiple companies, including $1B to IBM.
We got several batches of economic data, but nothing that really changes any narrative. Flash Manufacturing PMIs in the US continued to strengthen and beat estimates. The US data was stronger than corresponding EU and Asian data.
The Production reading was the fastest in four years but Input prices surged.
Flash Services PMI was relatively unchanged at a more sluggish level than manufacturing and just missed estimates. Prices rose as well but at a more subdued level as well.
Jobless claims were inline and remain on-trend. April Housing Starts beat expectations but fell from last month, though they remained above recent levels. Single-family starts fell from 1022k to 930k. Building Permits came in better than expected and rose from March last month.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from last month (from 26.7 to -0.4) with New Orders collapsing from 33.0 to -0.4. The Future Expectations reading countered it that move though, rising sharply (from 40.8 to 53.2). Expectations for Prices Paid and Received 6-months out both rose.
The KC Manufacturing index fell slightly, though New Orders ticked higher. Prices Paid was unchanged after a big jump last month, while Prices Received rose modestly. Expectations 6-months out rose for both measures. Select commentary focused on rising operational costs and difficulties filling open positions.
Treasury yields were backing up before the Iran-US agreement news completely reversed those moves. Yields are now down 1-3bp across the curve. The US Dollar responded by broadly weakening. After rising to ~99.5, the US Dollar Index is hovering just above 91.0.
- US 2yr -0bps to 4.06%, 5yr -2bps to 4.23%, 10yr -3bps to 4.56%, 30yr -3bps to 5.10%
- USD index: +$0.07 to $99.09
European equities ended mostly lower. The UK FTSE 100 managed to close slightly higher, gaining after dovish comments from BOE member Alan Taylor. The EU Commission cut 2026 GDP growth from 1.4% to 1.1%. Flash PMIs generally fell and missed estimates for both Manufacturing and Services across the region. In Japan the Nikkei jumped 3%, following the US strength yesterday and the fall in oil. Softbank ripping 20% on news that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO also had something to do with the gains last night. Chinese equities didn’t follow through on the US strength on the other hand, selling off overnight. South Korea’s one-upped Japan, shooting 8% higher as Samsung added 9% after averting a strike and HK Hynix gained 11%.
Brent crude was up ~2% earlier but is now down a similar amount. IEA chief Fatih Birol said that depleting inventories and summer demand could push oil markets into a "red zone" in July or August. There's also a report that OPEC+ is likely to agree on an oil output quota hike of 188,000 bpd at the June 7th meeting.
Gold gained as oil fell though copper remains modestly lower. Ag is mostly lower with wheat trailing following weekly export data. The crypto complex moved is higher with bitcoin and Eth moving into the green. Ethereum is grappling with several high profile departures from the Ethereum Foundation, the non-profit that supports the development and growth of the platform. Tokenization-related coins and related equities are seeing strength as that movement gathers steam. The NHL signed an information sharing agreement with the CFTC to regulate prediction markets on teams and players, mirroring a similar agreement with MLB.
Earnings:
- After-Market (Thrs): BULL, CAE, CPTR, DECK, FLO, LION, ROST, TTWO, WDAY, ZM
- Pre-Market (Fri): BAH, BJ, FRO, GSL
Economic Data:
US:
- Jobless Claims: 209k vs 210K cons, prior 212K
- Continuing Claims: 1782K vs 1790K cons, prior 1776K
- Philly Fed Manuf: -0.4 vs 18.0 cons, prior 26.7
- Housing Starts: 1.465M vs 1.41M cons, prior 1.507M
- Building Permits: 1.442M vs 1.39M cons, prior 1.363M
- Manufacturing Flash PMI: 55.3 vs 53.8 cons, prior 54.5
- Services Flash PMI: 50.9 vs 51.1 cons, prior 51.0
- EIA natural gas inventories: 101Bcf vs 96Bcf cons, prior 85Bcf
- KC Fed Manuf: 8 vs 10 prior
Global:
- Flash PMIs:
- Australia Manufacturing: 50.2 vs prior 51.3
- Australia Services: 47.7 vs prior 50.7
- Japan Manufacturing: 54.5 vs 54.5 cons, prior 55.1
- Japan Services: 50.0 vs prior 51.0
- India Manufacturing: 54.3 vs prior 54.7
- India Services: 58.9 vs prior 58.8
- France Manufacturing: 48.9 vs 52.2 cons, prior 52.8
- France Services: 42.9 vs 46.6 cons, prior 46.5
- Germany Manufacturing: 49.9 vs 51.0 cons, prior 51.4
- Germany Services: 47.8 vs 47.0 cons, prior 46.9
- UK Manufacturing: 53.7 vs 53.0 cons, prior 53.7
- UK Services: 47.9 vs 51.7 cons, prior 52.7
- EU Manufacturing: 51.4 vs 51.8 cons, prior 52.2
- EU Services: 46.4 vs 47.7 cons, prior 47.6
- EU Consumer Confidence: -19 vs -20.8 cons, prior -20.6
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 5/21/26 (a/o 9:00 am)
Good morning,
A historic Knicks comeback win and optimistic Iran headlines helped push equities higher yesterday as global yields and oil prices fell. The S&P 500 and the equal-weight gained 1% while small caps saw the best gains as the Russell 2000 added over 2%. Yields fell ~10bp across the curve, oil declined >5% and precious metals were higher. Consumer Discretionary was the leading sector, benefiting from the oil and yield moves and Tech outperformed as well with semi infrastructure names strong, outperforming software. This was a prelude to the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings after the close. As expected the company beat estimates and reported robust growth metrics: Data Center revenue +77%, Networking +199%. Next Q revenue guidance was ahead of the Street as well. They also announced an additional $80B in buyback authorization and increased the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25.
A few more tidbits:
S&P futures opened lower last night but gradually strengthened during the session before incremental Iran headlines pushed futures around both ways. After making session highs (+0.2%), futures fell again on comments from Iran’s supreme leader that weapons-grade uranium must stay in Iran and are currently down -0.4%. Economic data so far has been relatively uneventful. Jobless claims were inline and on-trend. Housing Starts beat expectations, falling from last month but remaining above recent levels. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from last month and missed estimates, but the Future Expectations readings countered it, rising sharply. Flash PMIs will be released after the open, following the global flash PMIs that fell broadly across Asia and the EU.
In non-NVDA earnings news, software maker Intuit is down sharply in the pre-market, pressuring the software group overall. Consumer/retail names are faring relatively well as RL, ELF and AAP trade up ~10% but WMT is down 4%. Both ELF and grocer KR said they would be reducing prices on their products. DE is trading lower despite a strong print as guidance was left unchanged. In other news, a big REIT merger was announced between EQR and AVB for an EV of ~69B. Quantum stocks are jumping after the US government announced $2B in grants to multiple companies, including $1B to IBM.
Treasury yields are backing up, reversing much of yesterday’s declines at the short-end, while the long-end has moved less with Iran tensions increasing again. The US Dollar is strengthening as well.
European equities are trading lower. Flash PMIs generally fell and missed estimates for both Manufacturing and Services across the region. In Japan the Nikkei jumped 3%, following the US strength yesterday and the fall in oil. Softbank ripped 20% after news that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO. Chinese equities didn’t see that optimism, however, and sold off overnight. South Korea’s one-upped Japan, shooting 8% higher as Samsung added 9% after averting a strike and HK Hynix gained 11%.
Brent crude is cutting into yesterday’s losses, up ~2% this morning after trading to its highs on the Iran uranium comments. IEA chief Fatih Birol said that depleting inventories and summer demand could push oil markets into a "red zone" in July or August. Metals are lower by about 1% and crypto and ag are modestly lower as well
Earnings:
Economic Data:
US:
Global:
A historic Knicks comeback win and optimistic Iran headlines helped push equities higher yesterday as global yields and oil prices fell. The S&P 500 and the equal-weight gained 1% while small caps saw the best gains as the Russell 2000 added over 2%. Yields fell ~10bp across the curve, oil declined >5% and precious metals were higher. Consumer Discretionary was the leading sector, benefiting from the oil and yield moves and Tech outperformed as well with semi infrastructure names strong, outperforming software. This was a prelude to the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings after the close. As expected the company beat estimates and reported robust growth metrics: Data Center revenue +77%, Networking +199%. Next Q revenue guidance was ahead of the Street as well. They also announced an additional $80B in buyback authorization and increased the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25.
A few more tidbits:
- Vera Rubin is on track to begin commercial shipments in 2H.
- The company rolled out a new reporting framework to highlight the evolution of growth drivers
- “The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed”.
- “Demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand at an unprecedented pace.”
S&P futures opened lower last night but gradually strengthened during the session before incremental Iran headlines pushed futures around both ways. After making session highs (+0.2%), futures fell again on comments from Iran’s supreme leader that weapons-grade uranium must stay in Iran and are currently down -0.4%. Economic data so far has been relatively uneventful. Jobless claims were inline and on-trend. Housing Starts beat expectations, falling from last month but remaining above recent levels. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from last month and missed estimates, but the Future Expectations readings countered it, rising sharply. Flash PMIs will be released after the open, following the global flash PMIs that fell broadly across Asia and the EU.
In non-NVDA earnings news, software maker Intuit is down sharply in the pre-market, pressuring the software group overall. Consumer/retail names are faring relatively well as RL, ELF and AAP trade up ~10% but WMT is down 4%. Both ELF and grocer KR said they would be reducing prices on their products. DE is trading lower despite a strong print as guidance was left unchanged. In other news, a big REIT merger was announced between EQR and AVB for an EV of ~69B. Quantum stocks are jumping after the US government announced $2B in grants to multiple companies, including $1B to IBM.
Treasury yields are backing up, reversing much of yesterday’s declines at the short-end, while the long-end has moved less with Iran tensions increasing again. The US Dollar is strengthening as well.
- US 2yr +5bps to 2Y%, 5yr +4bps to 5Y%, 10yr +2bps to 10Y%, 30yr +1bps to 30Y%
- USD index: +$0.27 to $99.28
European equities are trading lower. Flash PMIs generally fell and missed estimates for both Manufacturing and Services across the region. In Japan the Nikkei jumped 3%, following the US strength yesterday and the fall in oil. Softbank ripped 20% after news that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO. Chinese equities didn’t see that optimism, however, and sold off overnight. South Korea’s one-upped Japan, shooting 8% higher as Samsung added 9% after averting a strike and HK Hynix gained 11%.
Brent crude is cutting into yesterday’s losses, up ~2% this morning after trading to its highs on the Iran uranium comments. IEA chief Fatih Birol said that depleting inventories and summer demand could push oil markets into a "red zone" in July or August. Metals are lower by about 1% and crypto and ag are modestly lower as well
Earnings:
- After-Market (Wed): ELF, ENS, INTU, NDSN, NVDA, URBN
- Pre-Market: AAP, DE, HLNE, NTES, RL, TITN, WMS, WMT
- After-Market: BULL, CAE, CPTR, DECK, FLO, HUBG, RAMP, ROST, TTWO, WDAY, ZM
Economic Data:
US:
- Jobless Claims: 209k vs 210K cons, prior 212K
- Continuing Claims: 1782K vs 1790K cons, prior 1776K
- Philly Fed Manuf: -0.4 vs 18.0 cons, prior 26.7
- Housing Starts: 1.465M vs 1.41M cons, prior 1.507M
- Building Permits: 1.442M vs 1.39M cons, prior 1.363M
- 9:45am Flash PMIs
- 11am KC Fed Manuf
Global:
- Flash PMIs:
- Australia Manufacturing: 50.2 vs prior 51.3
- Australia Services: 47.7 vs prior 50.7
- Japan Manufacturing: 54.5 vs 54.5 cons, prior 55.1
- Japan Services: 50.0 vs prior 51.0
- India Manufacturing: 54.3 vs prior 54.7
- India Services: 58.9 vs prior 58.8
- France Manufacturing: 48.9 vs 52.2 cons, prior 52.8
- France Services: 42.9 vs 46.6 cons, prior 46.5
- Germany Manufacturing: 49.9 vs 51.0 cons, prior 51.4
- Germany Services: 47.8 vs 47.0 cons, prior 46.9
- UK Manufacturing: 53.7 vs 53.0 cons, prior 53.7
- UK Services: 47.9 vs 51.7 cons, prior 52.7
- EU Manufacturing: 51.4 vs 51.8 cons, prior 52.2
- EU Services: 46.4 vs 47.7 cons, prior 47.6
- 10:00am EU Consumer Confidence
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