STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Michael P. Reinking, CFA - Sr. Market Strategist
Published on 6/17/26 (a/o 12:30 pm)
DOW 52,178 (+178), S&P 500 7,511 (-1), Russell 2000 2,976 (+37), NYSE FANG+ 17,321 (+25), ICE Brent Crude $79.52/barrel (+$0.56), Gold $4,378/oz (+$23), Bitcoin ~65.9k (+201)
MAC Desk Commentary:
Yesterday was a quiet session with equities giving back some of Monday’s gains. A move lower in both rates (2-5bp) and oil (-4%) didn’t provide much lift for equities overall. The S&P 500 was down 0.6%, equal-weight down 0.3% and Russell down 0.9% however, the Dow bucked the trend, rising 0.6% as there was a defensive tilt to the tape. Semis sold off, putting pressure on the headline index while financials and yield oriented sectors moved higher.

It has been a choppy session as we await new Fed Chair Warsh’s first FOMC presser, and the MAC Desk Watch Party, at 2:30pm.  There have been a lot of headlines coming out of the G7. Axios reported that the signing of the MOU which is scheduled for Friday could be moved up to as early as today. Oil prices had been moving higher throughout the morning on some of the harsh Trump rhetoric and accelerated to the upside after big inventory draws but have pulled back since the Axios report. Equities were holding around unchanged throughout much of the morning but have started to move higher over the last hour. President Trump’s press conference at the G7 is ongoing but hasn’t broken any new ground. As we head to print, the S&P 500 is up 1pts to 7,512 (+0.0%), the Dow is up 173pts to 52,173 (+0.3%), while the Russell 2k is up 37pts to 2,976 (+1.2%).
This morning’s retail sales came in ahead of expectations of expectations pretty much across the board. Headline was up 0.9% and if you strip out autos and gas it was still up a healthy 0.5%. The control group which feeds into GDP was up 0.7% above the 0.4% estimate. Motor vehicle/parts, furniture/home and apparel all bounced back after declines last month while electronics, department stores and food services all fell from last month. I’d imagine the latter will bounce back next month with the World Cup providing a tailwind. Today’s housing market data was mixed with mortgage apps falling 3.8% from last week while there was a “a late spring buyer rush” helped pending home sales jump 3.8%.  Ahead of Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair there is some flattening of the yield curve while the USD index is a touch higher. Over the last couple of months Treasury yields and oil have been highly correlated but that relationship has started to fracture with the last leg lower in oil. The uncertainty around today’s FOMC meeting may be a factor in that. 

  • US 2yr +1bps to 4.07%, 5yr -1bps to 4.16%, 10yr -1bps to 4.43%, 30yr -2bps to 4.92%
  • USD index: +$0.20 to $99.48
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this afternoon and the Statement is expected to evolve in a more hawkish direction removing the easing bias, which caused 3 of the 4 dissents last meeting. With that change and the Mayor of Dissenter Island (Miran) no longer on the Committee we could see no dissents for the first time in a while. The Summary of Economic Projections will be updated with the biggest question whether Fed Chair Warsh submits his projections given his preference for less communication. Within the SEP inflation projections are expected to move up while the unemployment rate could tick lower. The DOTS will evolve in a hawkish direction - in March the median projected one cut, the question will be how many officials project a hike later this year (and just removing Miran’s wayward DOT will shift this higher). The press conference will be the main event as investors wait to see how Chair Warsh positions himself. He has talked about changing the Fed’s communication style so it will be interesting to see if he just stifles all of the questions falling back on “we’ll see how the data evolves”. Get your popcorn ready.

After dropping for several days, Brent crude is seeing modest gains, bouncing off its lows this morning and back to testing $80. Last night’s API crude report had inventories falling by 8.3M, a little less than last week’s 9.1M draw and almost doubling the 4.5M estimate. This morning’s EIA also showed a large draw and stockpiles hitting the lowest level since 1985. The IEA now expects 2026 global oil demand to fall 1.1mb/d, downgrading their prior estimate by 700kb/d. 2027 demand is expected to increase 2mb/d in 2027. Supply is expected to fall by 3.9mb/d in 2026, the same as last month, but rebound by 8mb/d in 2027. That would create an oil glut next year. Gold and silver were slightly lower but recouped those losses and are modestly higher. Crypto is also recouping earlier losses. 
European indices ended near session highs. Industrials and semis were among the leaders. Autos continue to come under pressure and Utilities lagged. Sweden’s central bank held its rate at 1.75% as expected and noted the likelihood of a rate hike later in the year has increased. UK CPI was below expectations and down from last month. The Nikkei was up 0.7% overnight with a batch of strong data including Machine Orders and Exports pushing manufacturing and industrial names higher. China was mixed. Hang Seng fell -0.7% as tech/AI gains were checked by broad weakness overall. Shanghai  advanced +0.4%. Comments by PBOC officials indicate China’s central bank could pivot to overnight rates as the main policy target, aligning more with central bank peers. Regulators will announce reforms to allow more early-stage, innovative tech companies to list on the STAR market, as well as encourage Hong Kong listed companies to dual-list on the mainland.     
Looking at the sector level activity some of yesterday’s leadership is pulling back. Comm services is the worst performing sector with a mix of weakness in telecom/cable and the mega-caps. Netflix continues to move lower despite refuting media reports it was interested in buying Liongate. Consumer discretionary is also being weighed down by the mega-cap components. CarMax which has been rallying sharply recently is pulling back despite solid results. La-Z-Boy is up ~20% after putting up very solid results. Within consumer discretionary and industrials housing related stocks are outperforming. Info tech is up >1% with semis trading higher while software is more mixed. Jabil was the most recent tech company to highlight the very strong data center demand. 
Earnings:
After-Market (Tues): LZB
Pre-Market: JBL, KMX
After-Market: SWBI

Economic Data:
US:
  • Mortgage Apps: -3.8% w/w prior 10.8%; 30yr Rate 6.6% prior 6.6%
  • Retail Sales/ex-Autos: 0.9%/0.8% vs. 0.5%/0.5% cons,. prior 0.5%/0.7%
  • Business Inventories: 0.5% vs. 0.5% cons., prior 0.9%
  • Pending Home Sales: 3.8% vs. 0.8% cons,. prior 0.3%
  • 2:00 FOMC (including SEP)
  • 2:30 Warsh Press Conference
Global:
  • Japan May Imports / Exports y.y: 12.5% / 17.0% vs 12.8% / 16.2% cons, prior 9.8% / 14.8%
  • Japan April Machine Orders m.m: 8.7% vs 0.9% cons, prior -9.4%
  • Japan Tankan Index: 13 vs prior 8  
  • UK Inflation: 0.2% / 2.8% m.m / y.y vs. 0.4% / 3% cons., prior 0.7% / 2.8%
  • UK Core Inflation: 0.3% / 2.6% m.m / y.y vs. 0.4% / 2.7% cons., prior 0.7% / 2.5%

By submitting this form you hereby expressly grant permission to use the information included thereunder to contact you for the purposes of sending periodic updates about ICE and/or its affiliates.  Certain indices mentioned above are administered by ICE Data Indices, LLC.

Your contact information will not be used for any purpose other than that for which your consent has been given. To learn more about our privacy policy, please click here.

© 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.  All rights reserved. Intercontinental Exchange and ICE are trademarks of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. or its affiliates.  For more information regarding registered trademarks, limitations, restrictions, and other important information, please visit intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use.