Good morning,
 
Tech stocks drove the S&P 500 to another record close yesterday, pushed higher by some big price reactions to earnings (SNOW +30%, KSS/DLTR/BBY +15-20%) as well as what may be the most tangible evidence of progress in the Iran conflict since the ceasefire. Maybe. Large caps and small caps matched each other with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rising 0.6%. The equal-weight trailed a bit as Tech was the leading sector: the IGV software ETF rose ~3% on SNOW’s tailwind. Brent and yields both fell, providing another tailwind, while inflation data via PCE remained highly elevated but came in a bit less than expected.    
 
S&P futures are slightly higher this morning as the index looks to push its weekly winning streak to nine. Speaking of streaks, Knicks fans will need to wait until Saturday night to find out who they’re playing in the NBA Finals with the Spurs tying their series up a 3 apiece last night. We haven’t got much follow-up on yesterday’s 60-day ceasefire news from the US side, but Iran’s Tasnim news is reported this morning that the text of the MOU has changed in recent days and Iran has not agreed to it yet. Back on the ferris wheel everyone. In keeping with the Groundhog Day feeling, S&P futures shrugged off the news and are near session highs, but that’s around flat. It’s month-end and an MSCI rebalance at the close, so watch for heightened activity today.
 

 
Tech and retail earnings continued to roll in:
 

• DELL +30%. Blew away estimates and provided a huge guidance increase with revenue upped from $140B to $167B. Management said the company benefitted from demand pull-forward as customers race to get ahead of component inflation, a growing trend we’ve noted the past few days (ZScaler and HPQ had related comments in their earnings).
• ADSK -7%. Down despite a beat-and-raise.
• Retailer reporters today are not seeing the strong price action that their peers saw yesterday.  AEO and GAP are down over 10% despite no glaring weaknesses in the reports. AEO management stated “we're not seeing the impact of the economy in a negative way.” COST is flat.
• Cybersecurity names are mixed with OKTA up 10% on a beat-and-raise while S falls over 10% (EPS beat, inline rev, record ARR growth).

With not a lot data this morning, treasury yields are around flat this morning, trading in a narrow range. The US Dollar Index is around flat as well, trading around 99.

• US 2yr -1bps to 4.01%, 5yr -1bps to 4.14%, 10yr -0bps to 4.44%, 30yr -0bps to 4.97%
• USD index: +$0.05 to $99.02

Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with tech heavy indices outperforming. In Japan the Nikkei was up ~2.5% bringing gains for the week to 4.7%. There was a bunch of economic data with a rebound in industrial production, better than expected retail sales, a drop in unemployment and Tokyo CPI slightly below estimates. The 2yr auction was met with tepid demand pushing the front end of the curve slightly higher. Officials continue to warn that currency intervention can happen at any point. South Korea was up >3% and 8% for the week with continued strength in tech stocks. Yesterday the local pension fund announced it would increase its allocation to local stocks to 20.8% from it previous target of 14.9% earlier this year (too bad they missed the 100% YTD gain). Markets in China/Hong Kong were mixed with the Hang Seng bouncing back as tech stocks rebounded but local markets were down >1% for the week. European indices are modestly higher with financial and industrials leading while energy is under some pressure. Inflation data across most of Europe came in better than feared with Germany showing a 0.2% decline m/m. India fell >1% after returning from holiday continuing to underperform.
 

 
Oil prices continue to drift lower down ~1.5% and ~10% for the week. US natural gas rallied sharply yesterday on warmer weather forecasts and is extending to the upside this morning. The metals complex is mostly lower with the exception of gold which is up ~0.5% extending yesterday’s bounce after tagging the 200d overnight. Ag is mixed. Crypto remains stuck in the mud with Bitcoin/Ethereum down ~1% and ~4% for the week.
 

 
 
Earnings:
After-Market: ADSK, AEO, COST, DELL, GAP, HQY, MDB, NTAP, OKTA, PATH, S
Pre-Market: BKE
 
Economic Data:
US:

• Trade Balance: vs. -$86.5B cons., prior -$87.4B
• Wholesale Inventories: 0.5% vs. 0.6% cons, prior 1.3%
• ~9:15 Fed Bowman/Paulson
• 9:45 Chicago PMI
• 12:40 Fed Daly
• 1:00 Rig Count

Global:

• South Korea Industrial Production: -0.7% vs. 0.3% cons,. prior 0.6%
• Japan Unemployment Rate: 2.5% vs. 2.7% cons. ,prior 2.7%
• Japan Industrial Production: 0.8% vs. -0.9% cons., prior -0.4%
• Japan Retail Sales: 1.3% prior 1%
• Tokyo Inflation: 1.4% y/y prior 1.5%
• Germany Import Prices: 1.2% vs. 1.1% cons., prior 3.6%
• Germany Inflation: -0.2% vs. 0.1% cons., prior 0.6%
• Germany unemployment change/rate: -12k/6.3% vs. 10k/6.4% cons,. prior 19k/6.4%
• France Inflation: 0.1% vs. 0.3% cons. prior 1%
• Spain Inflation: 0.1% vs. 0.2% cons., prior 0.4%
• Italy Inflation: 0.4% vs. 0.1% cons., prior 1.1%