STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 11/02/26 (a/o 1:15 pm)
DOW 52,247 (+477), S&P 500 7,594 (+14), Russell 2000 2,821 (+9), NYSE FANG+ 17,573 (-23), ICE Brent Crude $104.54/barrel (-$8.89), Gold $3,964/oz (+$65), Bitcoin ~76.9k (+308)
MAC Desk Commentary:
US equities sold off heading into Halloween weekend on Friday, The S&P 500 got spooked and fell nearly 2% to close the week as the calendar also flipped. However the index held above 7500 as it bounced nearly 1% off the lows in the final hour of trading. Most of the damage was focused on Tech as 6/11 sectors were flat to higher on the day, though the Defensive names saw much of that strength. Friday’s action echoed the entire month. The S&P 500 500 ended October down a modest 0.6% but the equal-weight gained nearly 5%. The NYSE 100 was down 8% while semis/memory indices were down >15%, showcasing the pressure that hit Large caps and Tech. Energy was the outperformer for the month up 14% while defensives (staples, utilities and healthcare) all ended the month up ~10%.

The possibility of US military strikes on Iran resuming, potentially over the weekend, was an overhang for markets, but reports that President Trump wanted to let negotiations play out provided some support. There was also news of a draft proposal following weekend negotiations in Doha. Futures were trading higher but took another leg up before the open on comments from Iran’s President that the Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities related to negotiations and that “we will try to resolve the problem with dialogue”. The S&P 500 opened up 0.4% and was up over 1% at its highs. However its been unable to hold the move back above the 100d ma as we have given back much of those gains. Tech has accounted for a significant part of that fade.
Despite the sluggishness of the market cap index, the equal-weight is up 1% with most sectors higher, and small caps are outperforming. Consumer Discretionary is leading today. AMZN is up 4% but most groups are seeing solid gains as well. Homebuilders are up ~5% and travel & leisure are seeing similar gains across the group. Staples is also seeing broad gains though the agriculture names are lower (BG, ADM down 1%) as is tobacco. Financials is another leader with broad gains- the big banks are up ~2%, and Materials are solidly higher with the weakness in commodities, which has made Energy the main laggard.  

Ahead of Apple earnings tonight, tech faded after the open. INTC is down another 5% and Marvell is down 10% after confirming it would acquire Lumentum for $115B in an all-stock transaction (Lumentum is down 15% as MRVL stock falls). Oracle (-7%) filed to sell $20B of debt and equity (~50/50). The news comes just days after the company said at its Investor Day that it would only need to raise $20B of additional capital through FY30, so this raise should the final one for several years if that guidance holds. Moody’s also affirmed the company’s credit rating, with its outlook remaining negative. In addition, Meta (flat) is looking at raising at least $20B as well in international bond offerings, according to reports. Anthropic updated its S-1. 3Q revenues were $17B, up from $1.4B last year. ~$450B of spending commitments are expected to be incurred by the end of 2030, including $70B in the next 12 months. Reports this weekend said that OpenAI was downsizing its latest capital raise at a lower than hoped valuation as the sector continues to wrestle with the need to raise giant sums.   
The yield curve is flattening with 10/30y down ~5bp and 2y flat. The USD index is lower as well. The Treasury Refunding Announcement will be released this afternoon.

  • US 2yr +1bps to 4.60%, 5yr -2bps to 4.70%, 10yr -4bps to 4.89%, 30yr -5bps to 5.26%
  • USD index: -$0.14 to $101.61
ISM Manufacturing rose from last month and beat estimates. New Order growth was relatively unchanged while Production and Inventories accelerated. Prices remained very elevated but moderated from last month. 
Final US S&P Manufacturing PMI for October was 54.9, lower than the flash reading of 56.0 though still firmly expansionary and continuing its upward trend.

September construction spending fell 1.9% from last month. Residential fell 5.5%, and 8.9% from one year ago.  That was due to a 5.5% decline in Home Improvements, while new single-family and multifamily construction was flat. Data Center construction rose 8.6% from last month and 90% from last September. Power construction rose 1.2% / 12.1%. 

The Iran negotiations news is slamming crude. Oil is extending to the downside with January Brent down 8% and below $105. European natural gas is down ~10%. The US has backed a plan to resume Russian gas sales to Europe via pipelines that run through Ukraine. With oil and rates lower, metals are bouncing back after getting hammered last week. Gold and silver are up 2-3%. Crypto is trying to bounce back after the Binance hack on Friday. Bitcoin is back above $77K after falling below it after the attack, though it’s well off the $82K level it was trading at before the news, and is also below its highs today. Binance has begun to allow withdrawals with reports suggesting >$4B has been processed (AUM ~$170B). 
Markets in Asia were mixed. The Nikkei fell modestly with tech stocks remaining under pressure after Kioxia (-15%) tumbled on a Q3 guidance miss on timing and mix issues, though robust demand growth is expected into CY2028. Memory stocks in South Korea took it in stride however, with Samsung and SK Hynix up 2-4% locally, buffered by reports that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met with several South Korean tech groups over the weekend. Hong Kong and mainland China both rallied amidst reports that financial regulators support share buybacks to stabilize markets and are talking with banks and SOE’s. The NBS PMIs fell while the private Ratings Dog manufacturing survey came in better than expected. Australia’s central bank will have its rate decision tonight. European equities were broadly higher, led by Travel/leisure and retail with Energy, Healthcare and telecom lagging. 
Tomorrow is Election Day and Apple will report earnings tonight. Tomorrow's data includes JOLTS and Factory Orders. Australia's central bank will announce its rate decision.  

Earnings:
  • After-Market: AAPL, BWXT, CBT, CC, CE, CLX, CRBG, DOC, FANG, ESRT, EVER, FN, HUN, INSP, O, ON, PGR, PLTR, SBAC, UDR, VNO, VOYA, VRTX, WMB
  • Pre-Market (Tues): ADM, ADT, AME, APO, APTV, BALL, Bayer, BR, CNK, DD, DOCN, ETN, EXPD, FIS, FISV, IT, KDP, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, PFE, Philips, RACE, RVTY, SHOP, SYY, WAT, YUM
  • After-Market (Tues): AIG, AMD, AMGN, ANET, ASH, BKNG, IFF, JELD, JKHY, MOD, MOS, MTDR, PRIM, PRU, SMCI, SWKS, TOST, TREE, XYZ

Economic Data:
US:
  • S&P Global Manufacturing final PMI: 54.9 vs 56.0 flash
  • ISM Manufacturing: 55.5 vs 54.6 cons, prior 54.5
  • Construction Spending: -1.9% vs 0.4% cons, prior 2.0% (revised from 0.9%)
  • 3:00pm Fed SLOOS survey
  • 4:00pm Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement

Global:
  • China NBS Manufacturing / Services: 49.3 / 49.7 vs. 50.0 / 50.5 cons, prior 50.1 / 50.2
  • China Rating Dog Manufacturing: 52.0 vs. 51.6 cons, prior 52.1
  • Germany retail sales m.m: -2% vs. 0.4% cons, prior 1.2%

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