by Michael P. Reinking, CFA-  Sr. Market Strategist

Published on 11/11/26 (a/o 1:30 pm)

Yesterday markets had to digest a hot CPI print and Fed officials talking up the prospects of a 50bp hike in December. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and Russell 0.7% but the equal-weight was basically flat despite 2y yields surging nearly 20bps. The action was impressive in the context of the news flow and given the previous day’s rally. Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Energy led while Tech and Materials were the main decliners. NVDA fell 6%, following a 5% drop on Monday as fallout around The Affair continued. However the NYSE Semis index was only slightly lower. Oil continued to move lower but ended off the lows while metals and bitcoin fell as the Dollar reversed the previous day’s losses.   

Bond markets are closed today and attendance on equity trading desks feels a little light, as is the data calendar. Before members of our Armed Forces rang the Opening Bell, S&P futures were trading up around 1%. The AI complex was driving the strength in the pre-market on the heels of Coreweave earnings, positive news flow related to the Anthropic IPO and OpenAI growth. Equities have extended the gains modestly since the open with the S&P 500 is up ~1.5%, reversing most of the post-election losses and testing its 20/100d ma’s just above 7,600. The equal-weight version of the index is trailing the market cap weighted index up ~0.6% with healthcare and yield/interest rate sensitive pockets of the market pulling back. 

Adv:dec within the S&P 500 is 1:1 with 6 of 11 sectors trading higher. Tech is leading with many chip, memory and hardware stocks up well north of 5%. Coreweave is up  ~25% after raising revenue (and capex guidance) and assuaging concerns about funding, at least in the near term, with a lot of commentary on that topic during the call. The company noted the continued strong demand which is outpacing supply and downplayed the regulatory risk with their projects already permitted or under construction. Speaking of strong demand, there are reports that demand for the Anthropic IPO might allow the company to increase the valuation range and potentially upsize the deal. As OpenAI is also working on raising funding it is being reported that Q3 sales grew 50% q/q exceeding $10B. Industrials are up ~1.5% with the data/energy infrastructure stocks outperforming up between 3% - 6%. Within the sector airlines, building products and professional services companies are underperforming. Communication services are up a similar amount with the mega-cap tech stocks accounting for most of the gains. Take-Two continues to move higher ahead of the released of Grand Theft Auto. Energy is up ~1% as oil prices bounce.

 Healthcare is underperforming down a little more than 0.5%. There is pretty broad-based weakness amongst subgroups but no real catalyst beyond the rotational activity. Consumer staples and discretionary are both modestly lower. Yield oriented sectors utilities and REITs are both modestly lower as well. 

There is no economic data on the calendar. While bond markets are closed Treasury futures are pointing to a continued move higher in yields at the front end of the curve with the 2yr up ~5bps to 4.8%. The USD is extending yesterday’s rally and is hitting new YTD highs approaching $103.

Crude is bouncing modestly after tagging its 100d ma yesterday. There isn’t much new on the geopolitical front. The US led Ukraine/Russia peace talks continued for a second day. Natural gas prices In the US have turned lower after testing the 50d ma. Prices in Europe are up >2% reversing this week’s losses. After getting hammered yesterday metals tried to bounce but have given up those gains as the USD rallies. There is a modest bounce in the crypto complex with Bitcoin still holding above its 200d ma. 

 In Asia the Nikkei rose over 1% and KOSPI over 2% with tech names leading the way (Kioxia, Advantest, SK Hynix, Samsung +4-6&). Softbank ended modestly lower after gaining over 10% yesterday. A lot of attention has been on the company’s over-ordering of natural gas turbines, leading to cancellations of a large chunk of those orders and related write-downs in the earnings report. On thing to keep an eye on was Japan’s machine tool order m/m declines both domestically (-18.2%) and foreign orders (-4.2%) this tends to be a leading indicator but is very volatile. Chinese indices are mixed with Hang Seng down 1% and Shanghai up 0.5%. Most major European indices closed near session highs up ~1% probing YTD highs again.  Similar to the US Energy, Tech, Manufacturers and Basic Resources led while consumer and health stocks lagged. Siemens Energy is up 9% on strong guidance. Final CPIs were generally inline with preliminary readings while Italian Industrial Production was better than expected.

Looking ahead to tomorrow the economic calendar includes claims and existing home sales there is some international inflation data out overnight. There are a couple of tech earnings out after tomorrow’s close which will get some attention (see below).

After-Market: CTVA, DGII, TTEK, VYLR

Pre-Market: EPC, EROC, EYE, FRMI, MBGL, TE, WWW, YETI

After-Market: AMAT, CBRS, CSCO, FLO, NBIS

US:

Global: