NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update
STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
DOW 39,313 (-356), S&P 500 5,306 (+20), Russell 2000 1,882 (+18), NYSE FANG+ 11,196 (-28), ICE Brent Crude $67.93/barrel (+$2.08), Gold $3,333/oz (-$13), Bitcoin ~85.0k (+474)
MAC Desk Commentary
Stocks are higher heading into the long holiday weekend. The S&P equal-weight is outperforming, up about 1%. The Russell 2000 is also up about 1%. Earnings continue to be generally positive with limited guidance downside despite the well-discussed uncertain environment.
Energy is leading today as Brent crude continues to move back toward the key $68 level. Staples, Utilities, Real Estate are also trading well today. Downside is limited with Tech lagging. Nvidia continues to be pressured, down 3% and Alphabet took a leg down in the morning on adtech antitrust updates. UnitedHealth is weighing on the Dow after its earnings today. Staying with Healthcare, Eli Lilly is up big after reporting positive Phase 3 results for its oral GLP drug candidate. Those two seem to be cancelling each other out as the sector trades flat. Meanwhile, a reported budget proposal from the White House Office of Management and Budget recommended slashing the Department of Health and Human Services’ funding to by $40 billion dollars in the next budget. That has pressured life science tools names today.
Indices and Sectors:
Earnings:
Semiconductor giant TSMC reported strong numbers last night. Next quarter’s guidance was ahead of consensus and the full year guide was maintained. Management noted the uncertainties and risks, but said “we have not seen any changes in our customers behavior so far…” and remain confident that growth from “AI accelerators will approach mid-40s percentage CAGR for the next five years…”. Aluminum giant Alcoa also maintained guidance for aluminum shipments. They did a nice job, in my opinion, of laying out the general challenges for industries in rearranging supply chains and production capacities. In housing DR Horton is trading lower after reporting a weaker quarter with closings and orders lower than expected. UnitedHealth is under pressure after disappointing earnings, taking the managed care sector lower with it. Netflix will report after the close despite the market holiday tomorrow. I guess you can do that when you get 16 Oscar nominations.
Treasury yields are backing up this morning after declining over the past three days, especially at the long end. It’s interesting to note that yields declined yesterday after Powell’s comments even though they were viewed as incrementally hawkish. The US Dollar Index is around unchanged, leaning a little stronger versus the Euro and Yen.
Government Yields
Jobless claims lead the US macro data today. They came in lower than consensus and continue on-trend, pointing to a still strong labor market. This is data for the week ending April 12, so we’ve moved into the AT, or After Tariff timeframe. Continuing claims were higher than expected, something to keep an eye on as this data series has two week lag, so week ending April 5.
Housing starts missed consensus and declined 11% m/m, with single-unit starts down 14%. The results mirror DR Horton’s results and point to constrained consumers and low affordability. On the plus-side Building permits came in higher than expected.
The Philly Fed index disappointed. Current Business Conditions plummeted 39 points to -26.4. New Orders fell from 8.7 last month to -34.2, the lowest reading since April 2020. Both Prices Paid and Received increased. While the current conditions deteriorated, the six month outlook was generally positive following previous steep drops. Something else to note- survey responses were collected April 7-14, right after the initial tariff news bombardment.
The ECB policy meeting earlier today lacked drama. The Bank cut its main policy rate by 25bp as expected, noting in the press release that disinflation is well on track but that the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising trade tensions, and that they are not pre-committed to a particular path.
Looking ahead to next week, the April PMIs will be a key data release as they incorporate AT (After Tariff) responses.
Japan closed up over 1% despite the US decline yesterday. Positive vibes from the tariff negotiations, including President Trump’s “Big Progress” social post seemed to have played a role. The two sides agreed to hold more talks this month and hope to reach an agreement to take to Trump and Ishiba ASAP. We’ll see…China stocks were also stronger overnight. Europe is trading lower with healthcare among the weaker sectors. Energy, utilities and insurance names are among the leaders. Banks and healthcare make up some of the laggards. Outside of the ECB decision it’s a light macro calendar. German PPI came in lower than expected.
Other Asset Classes:
Brent crude continues its recent move higher, jumping 3% today and nearing $68, a key area of prior support. Geopolitical tensions (new Iranian sanctions) and oversold conditions are helping the move. Gold is off around 1% but still around all-time highs.
Economic Data:
- Stocks positive, near highs of day.
- Relatively calm trading
- Energy leading as oil continues to climb; Tech lagging
- Yields backing up
- Markets closed tomorrow
- Check out some of the recent ICE Data/Content:
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MAC Desk Commentary
Stocks are higher heading into the long holiday weekend. The S&P equal-weight is outperforming, up about 1%. The Russell 2000 is also up about 1%. Earnings continue to be generally positive with limited guidance downside despite the well-discussed uncertain environment.
Energy is leading today as Brent crude continues to move back toward the key $68 level. Staples, Utilities, Real Estate are also trading well today. Downside is limited with Tech lagging. Nvidia continues to be pressured, down 3% and Alphabet took a leg down in the morning on adtech antitrust updates. UnitedHealth is weighing on the Dow after its earnings today. Staying with Healthcare, Eli Lilly is up big after reporting positive Phase 3 results for its oral GLP drug candidate. Those two seem to be cancelling each other out as the sector trades flat. Meanwhile, a reported budget proposal from the White House Office of Management and Budget recommended slashing the Department of Health and Human Services’ funding to by $40 billion dollars in the next budget. That has pressured life science tools names today.
Indices and Sectors:
Earnings:
Semiconductor giant TSMC reported strong numbers last night. Next quarter’s guidance was ahead of consensus and the full year guide was maintained. Management noted the uncertainties and risks, but said “we have not seen any changes in our customers behavior so far…” and remain confident that growth from “AI accelerators will approach mid-40s percentage CAGR for the next five years…”. Aluminum giant Alcoa also maintained guidance for aluminum shipments. They did a nice job, in my opinion, of laying out the general challenges for industries in rearranging supply chains and production capacities. In housing DR Horton is trading lower after reporting a weaker quarter with closings and orders lower than expected. UnitedHealth is under pressure after disappointing earnings, taking the managed care sector lower with it. Netflix will report after the close despite the market holiday tomorrow. I guess you can do that when you get 16 Oscar nominations.
Treasury yields are backing up this morning after declining over the past three days, especially at the long end. It’s interesting to note that yields declined yesterday after Powell’s comments even though they were viewed as incrementally hawkish. The US Dollar Index is around unchanged, leaning a little stronger versus the Euro and Yen.
Government Yields
- US 2yr +2bps to 3.79%, 5yr +3bps to 3.93%, 10yr +5bps to 4.33%, 30yr +7bps to 4.81%
- USD index: +$0.09 to $99.24
Jobless claims lead the US macro data today. They came in lower than consensus and continue on-trend, pointing to a still strong labor market. This is data for the week ending April 12, so we’ve moved into the AT, or After Tariff timeframe. Continuing claims were higher than expected, something to keep an eye on as this data series has two week lag, so week ending April 5.
Housing starts missed consensus and declined 11% m/m, with single-unit starts down 14%. The results mirror DR Horton’s results and point to constrained consumers and low affordability. On the plus-side Building permits came in higher than expected.
The Philly Fed index disappointed. Current Business Conditions plummeted 39 points to -26.4. New Orders fell from 8.7 last month to -34.2, the lowest reading since April 2020. Both Prices Paid and Received increased. While the current conditions deteriorated, the six month outlook was generally positive following previous steep drops. Something else to note- survey responses were collected April 7-14, right after the initial tariff news bombardment.
The ECB policy meeting earlier today lacked drama. The Bank cut its main policy rate by 25bp as expected, noting in the press release that disinflation is well on track but that the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising trade tensions, and that they are not pre-committed to a particular path.
Looking ahead to next week, the April PMIs will be a key data release as they incorporate AT (After Tariff) responses.
Japan closed up over 1% despite the US decline yesterday. Positive vibes from the tariff negotiations, including President Trump’s “Big Progress” social post seemed to have played a role. The two sides agreed to hold more talks this month and hope to reach an agreement to take to Trump and Ishiba ASAP. We’ll see…China stocks were also stronger overnight. Europe is trading lower with healthcare among the weaker sectors. Energy, utilities and insurance names are among the leaders. Banks and healthcare make up some of the laggards. Outside of the ECB decision it’s a light macro calendar. German PPI came in lower than expected.
Other Asset Classes:
Brent crude continues its recent move higher, jumping 3% today and nearing $68, a key area of prior support. Geopolitical tensions (new Iranian sanctions) and oversold conditions are helping the move. Gold is off around 1% but still around all-time highs.
Economic Data:
- US:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215K vs. 225K cons., prior 224K
- Continuing Claims: 1885.0K vs. 1870K cons., prior 1844K
- Housing Starts: 1.324M vs. 1.42M cons., prior 1.494M
- Building Permits: 1.482M vs. 1.45M cons., prior 1.459M
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -26.4 vs. 2 cons., prior 12.5
- Future Conditions: 6.9 vs. prior 5.6
- New Orders: -34.2 vs. prior 8.7
- Prices Paid: 51 vs. 48.3 prior
- Employment: 0.2 vs. 19.7 prior
- CAPEX: 2 vs. 13.4 prior
- 1:00 pm Rig Count
- 4:30 pm Fed Balance Sheet
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215K vs. 225K cons., prior 224K
- Global
- ECB Interest Rate Decision: Cut 25bp as expected
- Japan Trade Exports/Imports y.y: 3.9% / 2.0% vs. 4.5% / 3.1% cons., prior 11.4% / -0.7%
- South Korea Interest Rate Decision: Held at 2.75% as expected
- Australia Employment change: 32.2K vs. 40K cons., prior -57.4
- German PPI m.m: -0.7% vs. -0.1% cons., prior -0.2%
- y.y: -0.2% vs. 0.4% cons., prior 0.7%
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