STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo
Published on 7/27/26
Good morning,
US equities were mixed on Friday. The S&P 500 ended flat but the equal-weight rose 0.8% and every sector outside of Tech was higher. Memory and semis got hit (DRAM -9%), mega caps were mixed (AAPL +3.5%, META -1.8%) and software gained (IGV +1.0%). For the week the S&P fell ~0.5% but the equal-weight was slightly higher and small caps fell about 1%. Semis had been stronger before Friday’s selloff. The Iran situation cooled off once again over the weekend after President Trump postponed strikes on Friday and Saturday before reports that he decided against a major escalation. In response, Iran reportedly will halt its attacks as well. The latest détente has sent crude sharply lower this morning, helping global equities move higher and pushing yields lower. S&P futures gapped up on their opening, back into their 50d ma and pointing to a 0.8% gain at the cash open.
Earnings are quiet this morning but will ramp up significantly. Central Banks will be another key driver with the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, along with the BOJ and BOE. Yields are down 3-5bp across the curve on oil’s drop and the US Dollar Index is slightly lower. The data calendar is quiet as well. Headline Durable Goods orders missed estimates, but Capital Goods (ex-defense and aircraft) rose 0.9%, slightly above estimates though down from last month’s 1.9% increase.
European indices are modestly higher with broad gains outside of the oil and utility names. Germany’s Ifo survey was better than expected and improved from last month’s reading, driven by an improvement in expectations that offset a lower reading on current conditions. The BOE’s rate decision will be on Thursday, sandwiched between the Fed the day before and Japan on Friday. On Friday President Trump threatened new tariffs on the EU over the continent’s fines on Google. The Nikkei advanced 0.5%, helped by crude’s decline and bouncing from Friday’s sell-off, which was triggered by US tech weakness the day before. While major Japanese tech names were lower (Kioxia, SoftBank -3%) the rest of the market was broadly higher. China’s markets saw broad gains as well. Memory maker CXMT rocketed up 466% on its first day of trading, boosting sentiment especially across the tech sector following Friday’s weakness. South Korea announced $950B in new AI initiatives involving South Korean and US tech firms, including the Nvidia/SK Hynix deal discussed above as well as a Samsung / Broadcom MOU for up to $200B.
Crude is down >5% this morning on the Iran news, but off its lows ~$87 after bouncing off its 100d ma. Natural gas is also lower, especially European TTF. Metals are seeing a modest bounce, with gold and silver up less than 1% as yields fall on the Iran/oil moves. Bitcoin is up 1%, challenging its 50d ma ~$65K once again, as it had for most of last week. Ether is seeing stronger gains as it looks to regain its 100d ma ~$1950.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: AZN, BOH
After-Market: APLD, BLX, BRO, BRX, CDNS, CDP, CLS, ESI, FFIV, KFRC, KRC, LVMH, NE, NTB, NUE, PFG, RMBS, SSD, UDR, UHS, WELL
Pre-Market (Tues): AAT, AKR, APAM, ASH, ASM, AXS, BE, BRSP, BXP, CAR, CHE, CLW, CR, CSGP, CTO, ENPH, EXE, EXR, F, FCF, FE, GEF, HIW, KLAC, MIR, MDLZ, NBR, NOV, NXPI, OI, OMC, ORN, PDM, PPG, QUAD, RNST, ROG, SK Hynix, STAG, STX, TER, THG, TRTX, TTAM, UNM, V, VLTO, WM, WPC, ZWS
Economic Data:
US:
US equities were mixed on Friday. The S&P 500 ended flat but the equal-weight rose 0.8% and every sector outside of Tech was higher. Memory and semis got hit (DRAM -9%), mega caps were mixed (AAPL +3.5%, META -1.8%) and software gained (IGV +1.0%). For the week the S&P fell ~0.5% but the equal-weight was slightly higher and small caps fell about 1%. Semis had been stronger before Friday’s selloff. The Iran situation cooled off once again over the weekend after President Trump postponed strikes on Friday and Saturday before reports that he decided against a major escalation. In response, Iran reportedly will halt its attacks as well. The latest détente has sent crude sharply lower this morning, helping global equities move higher and pushing yields lower. S&P futures gapped up on their opening, back into their 50d ma and pointing to a 0.8% gain at the cash open.
Earnings are quiet this morning but will ramp up significantly. Central Banks will be another key driver with the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, along with the BOJ and BOE. Yields are down 3-5bp across the curve on oil’s drop and the US Dollar Index is slightly lower. The data calendar is quiet as well. Headline Durable Goods orders missed estimates, but Capital Goods (ex-defense and aircraft) rose 0.9%, slightly above estimates though down from last month’s 1.9% increase.
- US 2yr -3bps to 4.32%, 5yr -4bps to 4.40%, 10yr -4bps to 4.65%, 30yr -4bps to 5.12%
- USD index: -$0.06 to $101.24
European indices are modestly higher with broad gains outside of the oil and utility names. Germany’s Ifo survey was better than expected and improved from last month’s reading, driven by an improvement in expectations that offset a lower reading on current conditions. The BOE’s rate decision will be on Thursday, sandwiched between the Fed the day before and Japan on Friday. On Friday President Trump threatened new tariffs on the EU over the continent’s fines on Google. The Nikkei advanced 0.5%, helped by crude’s decline and bouncing from Friday’s sell-off, which was triggered by US tech weakness the day before. While major Japanese tech names were lower (Kioxia, SoftBank -3%) the rest of the market was broadly higher. China’s markets saw broad gains as well. Memory maker CXMT rocketed up 466% on its first day of trading, boosting sentiment especially across the tech sector following Friday’s weakness. South Korea announced $950B in new AI initiatives involving South Korean and US tech firms, including the Nvidia/SK Hynix deal discussed above as well as a Samsung / Broadcom MOU for up to $200B.
Crude is down >5% this morning on the Iran news, but off its lows ~$87 after bouncing off its 100d ma. Natural gas is also lower, especially European TTF. Metals are seeing a modest bounce, with gold and silver up less than 1% as yields fall on the Iran/oil moves. Bitcoin is up 1%, challenging its 50d ma ~$65K once again, as it had for most of last week. Ether is seeing stronger gains as it looks to regain its 100d ma ~$1950.
Earnings:
Pre-Market: AZN, BOH
After-Market: APLD, BLX, BRO, BRX, CDNS, CDP, CLS, ESI, FFIV, KFRC, KRC, LVMH, NE, NTB, NUE, PFG, RMBS, SSD, UDR, UHS, WELL
Pre-Market (Tues): AAT, AKR, APAM, ASH, ASM, AXS, BE, BRSP, BXP, CAR, CHE, CLW, CR, CSGP, CTO, ENPH, EXE, EXR, F, FCF, FE, GEF, HIW, KLAC, MIR, MDLZ, NBR, NOV, NXPI, OI, OMC, ORN, PDM, PPG, QUAD, RNST, ROG, SK Hynix, STAG, STX, TER, THG, TRTX, TTAM, UNM, V, VLTO, WM, WPC, ZWS
Economic Data:
US:
- Durable Goods Orders m.m: 0.3% vs 2.5% cons, prior -4.0%
- Ex-transports: 0.6% vs 0.8% cons, prior 1.8%
- Ex-Defense, ex-air: 0.9% vs 0.8% cons, prior 1.9%
- 10:30am Dallas Fed Manufacturing
- China Industrial Profits June y.y: 15.1% vs prior 21.1%
- Germany Ifo Business Climate: 86.6 vs 86.0 cons, prior 85.7
- Current Conditions: 86.5 vs 87.3 cons, prior 87.0
- Expectations: 86.7 vs 84.8 cons, prior 84.3
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