NYSE MAC Desk
Market Update

Good morning,
 
US futures are struggling as we head towards the Open. Equities are seeing weakness globally to end the week and S&P futures are currently implying a ~0.6% decline to start the day. Recent earnings have not provided a positive catalyst for equities, including updates from some big names last night. Yesterday the S&P opened lower, then moved steadily higher climbing ~1% from the Opening low. 5700 has been a significant area of resistance for the index and once again we traded to that spot before pulling back.  The index traded 5650-5675 from about noon onward before closing down 0.2%. March Madness has officially begun, and by that we mean today is a Triple Witching and quarterly rebalance.     
 
Regarding those earnings, FedEx cut guidance and noted “continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy”. Nike beat estimates but saw particular weakness in China. Lennar also beat estimates and reported solid orders but pricing and margins were lower, with management offering a succinct two-liner on the environment: “Our first quarter was marked by a challenging macroeconomic environment for homebuilding. While demand remains strong, persistently higher interest rates and inflation, combined with a downturn in consumer confidence and a limited supply of affordable homes, made it increasingly difficult for consumers to access homeownership.” Over in tech, Micron easily beat estimates, guided above and noted they are sold out of HMB for 2025 and sees strong demand for 2026. That hasn’t stopped the stock from trading lower by 4% in the pre-market, highlighting how much these strong results have already been baked into expectations for the Tech/AI names, and that the bar has been raised to Olympic Pole Vault levels.
 
The Nikkei closed down 0.2% but ended the week up about 2%. Chinese equities fell, with Hang Seng down 2% and Shanghai off 1%. This week saw a bit of a pullback in an otherwise red-hot start to the year. European indices are trading lower by 0.6% to 1% across the region. Germany’s Bundestrat approved the constitutional changes to its debt brake.
 
It’s a quiet day for economic data. Not much from the US, though NY Fed President Williams will speak before the Open at the Biennial Macroeconomic Caribbean Conference. Japan’s Core CPI came in a bit hotter than expected but lower than the prior month. The Yen is down slightly versus the Dollar.  Treasury yields are lower by 3-4bp across the curve, falling as equity futures moved lower this morning. The USD index is up slightly. ICE Brent is off down about 0.3%. Gold is ticking lower as is Copper. Bitcoin is also slightly lower, trading just under $84K.
 
Global Markets
Asia:
Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.2%
China's Shanghai Composite: -1.3%
India's Sensex: +0.7%
South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%
 
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: -0.7%
Germany's DAX: -0.9%
U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%
France's CAC 40: -0.8%
Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.7%
Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH
 
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields

• US 2yr -3bps to 3.93%, 5yr -3bps to 3.98%, 10yr -2bps to 4.22%, 30yr -1bps to 4.55%
• USD index: +$0.04 to $103.54
• Oil prices - ICE Brent: -0.3% to $71.79, WTI: -0.1% to $68.02, Nat Gas: +0.2% to $3.98
• Gold: -0.0% to $3,042.60, Silver: -0.9% to $33.70, Copper: -0.8% to $5.07
• Wheat: +0.1% to $5.87, Corn: -0.3% to $4.68, Soybeans: -0.2% to $10.11, Cotton: -0.6% to $0.66
• VIX: +0.90 to 20.70
• Bitcoin: -0.7% to ~83.7k

Central Banks:

• 9:00am Fed Williams Speech

Economic Data:

• US:
  • 1pm Baker Hughes Rig Count

• Global
  • Japan CPI: 3.0% vs. 2.9% cons., prior 3.2%
  • Gfk UK Consumer Confidence: -19 vs. -21, prior -20
  • France Business Confidence: 96 vs. 97 cons., prior 97
  • UK Industrial Business Trends: -29 vs. -30 cons,. prior -28
  • Canada New Housing Price Index m.m: 0.1% vs. 0 cons., prior -0.1%
  • Canada Retail Sales ex-Autos: 0.2% vs. -0.2% cons., prior 2.9%
  • 11am Europe Consumer Confidence